- 金币:
-
- 奖励:
-
- 热心:
-
- 注册时间:
- 2006-7-3
|
|
楼主 |
发表于 2009-4-22 10:51
|
显示全部楼层
Introduction
Suppositions given in Annual-06 are confirmed. Thus it is possible that corrective wave (B) or (X) of the global correction will complete its forming till November 2006.
USD/JPY price movement is slightly different from the movement of the European currencies, but at the end of October forming of the corrective wave ending (it may be wave 2) is also expected.
Most probable variants of price movement are described in the respective sections.
Note
This report reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release. This report is subject to change, it will be reflected in daily analyses or in additional articles in Wave analysis.
It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show probable price movements.
Reference
October 1, 2006 The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd
Introduction
Early completion of correction projected in Monthly-0906 has not been confirmed. On the back of it at the mid of the month the forecast was adjusted according to the new data (refer to Possible scenarios of USD strengthening (EWA of CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD)). For the result refer to Figure C1.
Figure C1. Final daily chart of the WA, September-October, 2006.
For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of CHF two-week-old movement is given in the chart.
Current wave analysis
For wave analysis in large time frames refer to:
In the period of supposed global trend breakout the number of possible wave scenarios increases repeatedly. That is why some scenarios, described in August-September, are not annulled yet and still have right to exist. At the same time the following joined picture of the weekly charts (Figure C2) should be paid attention to.
Figure C2. Joined picture of the weekly charts of the main dollar currency pairs.
It can be clearly seen that from the mid of May some wave construction has been forming in the charts (inside the ellipse), by its structure it is closer to a correction rather than an impulse translational motion of prices. In three cases out of four this correction may be presented in the shape of the horizontal triangle both by its inner structure and external shape.
Two possible variants of wave counting for CHF were described in details in article Possible scenarios of USD strengthening (EWA of CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD). Though strong unwillingness of the dollar to strengthen in the impulse mode increases USD/CHF chances that extended correction, which features are close to the features of the horizontal triangles, will form.
That is why after expected completion of this many-week correction final price thrust downwards against the dollar by ~ 600..800 points is logical to expect. In case the suppositions are correct upward reverse in favor of the dollar of the global trend, expected from the beginning of the year, will form above the key pulse point around the 20th of October (refer to Annual-06).
According to the accepted scenario currently wave (B) or (X) is forming, it is assuming the shape of downward triple zigzag W-X-Y-X-Z (Figure C3).
Figure C3. Wave counting on the daily chart.
Second corrective wave X of the triple zigzag is supposed to be almost completed. I am sorry to say that it is not confirmed yet. Ending of the first wave X is the critical level for this scenario.
1.20...1.18 resistance level is still the most preferable level for triple zigzag (B) or (X) completion. Though the area of projected values should be adjusted once completion of wave XX is confirmed.
Wave Z projection crossing with the mid line of the trend channel of triple zigzag W-X-Y-X-Z may serve as an additional argument in favor of this area of calculated values.
For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.
Reference
October 1, 2006 The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd
Introduction
Early completion of correction projected in Monthly-0906 has not been confirmed. On the back of it at the mid of the month the forecast was adjusted according to the new data (refer to Possible scenarios of USD strengthening (EWA of CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD)). For the result refer to Figure E1.
Figure E1. Final daily chart of the WA, September-October, 2006.
For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of EUR two-week-old movement is given in the chart.
Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of CHF in large time frames refer to:
In the period of supposed global trend breakout the number of possible wave scenarios increases repeatedly. That is why some scenarios, described in August-September, are not annulled yet and still have right to exist. At the same time the following joined picture of the weekly charts (Figure E2) should be paid attention to.
Figure E2. Joined picture of the weekly charts of the main dollar currency pairs.
It can be clearly seen that from the mid of May some wave construction has been forming in the charts (inside the ellipse), by its structure it is closer to a correction rather than an impulse translational motion of prices. In three cases out of four this correction may be presented in the shape of the horizontal triangle both by its inner structure and external shape.
Possible variant of EUR wave counting was described in details in article Possible scenarios of USD strengthening (EWA of CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD). Though strong unwillingness of the dollar to strengthen in the impulse mode increases EUR/USD chances that a horizontal triangle or another extended horizontal correction, which features are close to the features of the horizontal triangles, will form.
That is why after expected completion of this many-week correction final price thrust upwards against the dollar by ~ 600..800 points is logical to expect. In case the suppositions are correct downward reverse in favor of the dollar of the global trend, expected from the beginning of the year, will form above the key pulse point around the 20th of October (refer to Annual-06).
According to the accepted scenario currently wave (B) or (X) is forming, it is assuming the shape of upward triple zigzag W-X-Y-X-Z (Figure E3).
Figure E3. Wave counting on the daily chart.
Second corrective wave X of the triple zigzag is supposed to be almost completed. I am sorry to say that it is not confirmed yet. Ending of the first wave X is the critical level for this scenario. Moreover, labeling of the final highs of triangle [c], [d], [e] is quite conventional, to maintain the status of the horizontal triangle this correction should not cross another critical level which goes through the ending of wave [a] of XX.
1.31..1.32 resistance level is still the most preferable level for triple zigzag (B) or (X) completion. Though the area of projected values should be adjusted once completion of wave XX is confirmed.
Wave Z projection crossing with the mid line of the trend channel of triple zigzag W-X-Y-X-Z may serve as an additional argument in favor of this area of calculated values.
For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.
Reference
October 1, 2006 The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 15:41 编辑 ] |
本帖子中包含更多资源
您需要 登录 才可以下载或查看，没有帐号？立即注册
x
|
|
[复制链接]
