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楼主: hefeiddd

一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 09:36 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction

The date, when many-week prices movement in favor of the dollar is projected to complete, still remains the same (~ March, 2006). New data make it possible to specify the deadline for sub-wave (A) or (W) completion of the main scenario – April 6, 2006.

At the same time alternate variants become more preferable (refer to Annual Wave Analysis, 2006 and Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian) and Daily Wave Analyses).

This month interest rates may be changed in some backbone countries that may have impact on currency pairs movement (refer to Table 1).
Country Interest Rate Current Value Previous Change Next Meeting
USA Federal Funds 4.25% December 13, 2005 (+0.25%) January 31, 2006
USA Discount Rate 5.25% December 13, 2005 (+0.25%) January 31, 2006
Great Britain Repo Rate 4.50% August 4, 2005 (-0.25%) February 8-9, 2006
Eurozone Refinancing Tender 2.25% December 1, 2005 (+0.25%) February 2, 2006
Eurozone Deposit Rate 1.25% December 1, 2005 (+0.25%) February 2, 2006
Eurozone Marginal Lending Rate 3.25% December 1, 2005 (+0.25%) February 2, 2006
Japan Discount Rate 0.10% September 18, 2001 (-0.15%) February 8-9, 2006
Japan Overnight Call Rate Target 0.00% March 19, 2001 (-0.25%) February 8-9, 2006
Switzerland 3 month LIBOR Range 0.5% - 1.5% December 15, 2005 (+0.25%) March 16, 2006
Canada Overnight Rate Target 3.50% January 24, 2006 (+0.25%) March 7, 2006
Canada Bank Rate 3.75% January 24, 2006 (+0.25%) March 7, 2006
Australia Cash Rate 5.50% March 1, 2005 (+0.25%) February 7, 2006

Table 1. Interest rate data.

Note

This report reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release. This report is subject to change, it will be reflected in daily analyses.

It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show probable price movements.


Reference


forDmitry@yahoo.com
January, 29, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.




Introduction

Trend reversed a bit later than it was forecasted in Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2006, having formed supposed wave [x] in the shape of double zigzag, not a flat. The alternate variant is not canceled yet. For the result refer to Figure C1.



Figure С1. Final daily chart of the WA, January, 2006.

For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of CHF behavior is shown here.


Current wave analysis

For wave analysis in large time frames refer to:

The first sub-wave (A) or (W) of corrective wave is forming (refer to Figure C2 below). Possible variants of further movement were described in details in USDCHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006) and Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian).



Figure С2. Wave counting on the daily chart. The main variant.

Currently the virtual skewer may turn into support for CHF. In case the price rebounds upward from it, the main scenario will be confirmed. April 6, 2006 is the deadline for wave (A) or (W) completion. In case the critical level is broken I will have to consider one of the alternate scenarios to become more valid (refer to Figure C3 below).

The main variant is also confirmed by resistance level, reached by RSI, with price at the base line (trend line). Moreover, divergence formed between price and RSI.



Figure С3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Alternate variants.

According to two alternate variants, shown in Figure C3, wave (A) or (W) is supposed to be completed.

For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.



Reference

Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
January 29, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.




Introduction

Trend reversed a bit later than it was forecasted in Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2006 having formed supposed wave [x] in the shape of double zigzag, not a flat. The alternate variant is not canceled yet. For the result refer to Figure E1.



Figure E1. Final daily chart of the WA, January, 2006.

For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of EUR behavior is shown here.

Current wave analysis

For wave analysis in large time frames refer to:
First sub-wave (A) or (W) of corrective wave is forming (refer to Figure Е2 below). Possible variants of further movement were described in details in EURUSD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006) and inversely in Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian).



Figure E2. Wave counting on the daily chart. The main variant.

Currently the virtual skewer may turn into resistance for EUR. In case the price rebounds downward from it, the main scenario will be confirmed. April 6, 2006 is the deadline for wave (A) or (W) completion. In case the critical level is broken I will have to consider one of the alternate scenarios to become more valid (refer to Figure E3 below).

The main variant is also confirmed by resistance level, reached by RSI, with price at the base line (trend line). Moreover, divergence formed between price and RSI.



Figure E3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Alternate variants.

According to two alternate variants, shown in Figure E3, wave (A) or (W) is supposed to be completed.

For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.


Reference


Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
January 29, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.




[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 15:12 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 09:37 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction

Trend reversed a bit later than forecasted in Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2006, having formed supposed wave [x] in the shape of double zigzag, not a flat. The alternate variant is not canceled yet. For the result refer to Figure G1.



Figure G1. Final daily chart of the WA, January, 2006.

For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of GBP behavior is shown here.

Current wave analysis

For wave analysis in large time frames refer to:
For more information about GBPUSD, its possible behavior, refer to Possible Variants of Correction Development until March, 2006 (in Russian) and Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian).

First sub-wave (A) or (W) of corrective wave is forming (refer to Figure G2 below). Possible variants of further movement were described in details in GBPUSD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006) and inversely in Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian).



Figure G2. Wave counting on the weekly chart. The main variant.

Currently resistance levels prior to the virtual skewer may become an obstacle for GBP. In case the price rebounds downward from them, the main scenario will be confirmed. April 6, 2006 is the deadline for wave (A) or (W) completion. In case the critical level is broken I will have to consider one of the alternate scenarios to become more valid (refer to Figure G3 below).

The main variant is also confirmed by resistance level, reached by RSI, with price at the base line (trend line). Moreover, divergence formed between price and RSI.



Figure G3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Alternate variants.

According to two alternate variants, shown in Figure G3, wave (A) or (W) is supposed to be completed.

For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.


Reference


Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
January 29, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.



Introduction

Forecasted in Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2006 price movement remained valid. For the result refer to Figure Y1.



Figure Y1. Final daily chart of the WA, January, 2006.

For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of JPY behavior is shown here.

Current wave analysis

For wave analysis in large time frames refer to:
First sub-wave (A) or (W) of the final wave of horizontal triangle [E] is forming (Figure Y2 below). Possible variants of further movement were described in details in USDJPY (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006).



Figure Y2. Wave counting on the weekly chart. The main variant.

In case final upward impulse or diagonal triangle is formed, the main scenario will be confirmed. Wave (A) or (W) completion is possible at the end of March – beginning of April, at the same time when European currencies will complete this wave. In case the critical level is broken I will have to consider one of the alternate scenarios to become more valid (refer to Figure Y3 below).



Figure Y3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Alternate variants.

According to two alternate variants, shown in Figure Y3, wave (A) or (W) is supposed to be completed.

For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.


Reference


Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
January 29, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.



[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 15:14 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 09:40 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction

The date, when many-week prices movement in favor of the dollar is projected to complete, still remains the same (~ the end of March, 2006). In Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2006 date limit for completion of sub-wave (A) or (W) of the main scenario was April 6, 2006. Taking into consideration the error of this method, this date is still valid.

Currently the alternate variant for the described currencies differs from the main one by the depth of the expected final movement (refer to the correspondent parts).

This month interest rates may be changed in some backbone countries that may have impact on currency pairs movement (refer to Table 1).
Country Interest Rate Current Value Previous Change Next Meeting
USA Federal Funds 4.50% January 31, 2006 (+0.25%) March 28, 2006
USA Discount Rate 5.50% January 31, 2006 (+0.25%) March 28, 2006
Great Britain Repo Rate 4.50% August 4, 2005 (-0.25%) February 8-9, 2006
Eurozone Refinancing Tender 2.25% February 2, 2006 (+0.25%) March 2, 2006
Eurozone Deposit Rate 1.25% February 2, 2006 (+0.25%) March 2, 2006
Eurozone Marginal Lending Rate 3.25% February 2, 2006 (+0.25%) March 2, 2006
Japan Discount Rate 0.10% September 18, 2001 (-0.15%) March 8-9, 2006
Japan Overnight Call Rate Target 0.00% March 19, 2001 (-0.25%) March 8-9, 2006
Switzerland 3 month LIBOR Range 0.5% - 1.5% December 15, 2005 (+0.25%) March 16, 2006
Canada Overnight Rate Target 3.50% January 24, 2006 (+0.25%) March 7, 2006
Canada Bank Rate 3.75% January 24, 2006 (+0.25%) March 7, 2006
Australia Cash Rate 5.50% March 1, 2005 (+0.25%) March 7, 2006

Table 1. Interest rate data.

Note

This report reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release. This report is subject to change, it will be reflected in daily analyses.

It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show probable price movements.


Reference


forDmitry@yahoo.com
February 26, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.



Introduction

Two-month uptrend, forecasted in Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2006, remained valid. For the result refer to Figure C1.



Figure C1. Final daily chart of the WA, February-March, 2006.

For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of CHF behavior is shown here.


Current wave analysis

For wave analysis in large time frames refer to:
The first sub-wave (A) or (W) of corrective wave is forming (refer to Figure C2 below). Possible variants of further movement were described in details in USDCHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006) and Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian).



Figure С2. Wave counting on the daily chart. The main variant.

Currently supposed wave (b) of [y] is forming. Completion of final wave (c) of [y] of the uptrend is expected at the end of March – beginning of April. Its price targets will be specified once wave (b) of [y] is completed. April 6, 2006 is the date limit for wave (A) or (W) completion.

In this case the alternate variant differs only by the depth of the final upward movement (refer to Figure C3 below).



Figure С3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Alternate variants.

One of possible alternate variants is shown in Figure C3. According to this variant wave (A) or (W) is completed. In this case the “Double top”, classical pattern of the technical analysis, may be formed.

For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.


Reference


Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
February 26, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.



Introduction

Two-month downtrend, forecasted in Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2006, remained valid. For the result refer to Figure E1.



Figure E1. Final daily chart of the WA, February-March, 2006.

For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of EUR behavior is shown here.

Current wave analysis

For wave analysis in large time frames refer to:

First sub-wave (A) or (W) of corrective wave is forming (refer to Figure Е2 below). Possible variants of further movement were described in details in EURUSD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006) and inversely in Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian).



Figure E2. Wave counting on the daily chart. The main variant.

Currently supposed wave (b) of [y] is forming. Completion of final wave (c) of [y] of the downtrend is expected at the end of March – beginning of April. Its price targets will be specified once wave (b) of [y] is completed. April 6, 2006 is the date limit for wave (A) or (W) completion.

In this case the alternate variant differs only by the depth of the final downward movement (refer to Figure E3 below).



Figure E3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Alternate variant.

One of possible alternate variants is shown in Figure E3. According to this variant wave (A) or (W) is completed. In this case the “Double bottom”, classical pattern of the technical analysis, may be formed.

For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.



Reference

Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
February 26, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 15:15 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 09:46 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction

Two-month downtrend, forecasted in Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2006, remained valid. For the result refer to Figure G1.



Figure G1. Final daily chart of the WA, February-March, 2006.

For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of GBP behavior is shown here.

Current wave analysis

For wave analysis in large time frames refer to: For more information about GBPUSD, its possible behavior, refer to Possible Variants of Correction Development until March, 2006 (in Russian) and Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian).

First sub-wave (A) or (W) of corrective wave is forming (refer to Figure G2 below). Possible variants of further movement were described in details in GBPUSD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006) and inversely in Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian).



Figure G2. Wave counting on the weekly chart. The main variant.

Currently supposed wave (b) of [y] is forming. Completion of final wave (c) of [y] of the downtrend is expected at the end of March – beginning of April. Its price targets will be specified once wave (b) of [y] is completed. April 6, 2006 is the date limit for wave (A) or (W) completion.

In this case the alternate variant differs only by the depth of the final downward movement (refer to Figure G3 below).



Figure G3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Alternate variant.

One of possible alternate variants is shown in Figure G3. According to this variant wave (A) or (W) is completed. In this case the “Double bottom”, classical pattern of the technical analysis, may be formed.

For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.


Reference


Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
February 26, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.




Introduction

Uptrend, forecasted in Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2006, remained valid, though consolidation began earlier than expected. For the result refer to Figure Y1.



Figure Y1. Final daily chart of the WA, February, 2006.

For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of JPY behavior is shown here.

Current wave analysis

For wave analysis in large time frames refer to: First sub-wave (A) or (W) of the final wave of horizontal triangle [E] is forming (Figure Y2 below). Possible variants of further movement were described in details in USDJPY (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006).



Figure Y2. Wave counting on the weekly chart. The main variant.

Currently supposed wave (iv) of [c] is forming. Completion of final wave (v) of [c] of the uptrend is expected at the end of March – beginning of April, simultaneously with the European currencies. Its price targets will be specified once wave (iv) of [c] is completed. April 6, 2006 is possible date limit for wave (A) or (W) completion.

In this case the alternate variant differs only by the depth of the final upward movement (refer to Figure Y3 below).



Figure Y3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Alternate variant.

One of possible alternate variants is shown in Figure Y3. According to this variant wave (A) or (W) is completed. In this case the “Double top”, classical pattern of the technical analysis, may be formed.

For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.


Addition of March 9, 2006


Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY (Wave Analysis)

Reference


Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
February 26, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 15:17 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 10:07 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction

Many-week trend in favor of the dollar is supposed to be almost completed. Two months ago (refer to Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2006) the date limit of its completion was specified. Taking into consideration the error of this method and two weekends (April 8-9, 2006) trend reverse may be expected on April 7-10, 2006. Current wave counting does not contradict this supposition. Though in case of a strong final movement only its first sub-wave may form above this key pulse point.

Currently the alternate variant for the described currencies differs from the main one by the depth of the expected final movement (refer to the correspondent parts).


Addition of April 10, 2006


Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs

This month interest rates may be changed in some backbone countries that may have impact on currency pairs movement (refer to Table 1).
Country Interest Rate Current Value Previous Change Next Meeting
USA Federal Funds 4.75% March 28, 2006 (+0.25%) May 10, 2006
USA Discount Rate 5.75% March 28, 2006 (+0.25%) May 10, 2006
Great Britain Repo Rate 4.50% August 4, 2005 (-0.25%) April 5-6, 2006
Eurozone Refinancing Tender 2.50% March 2, 2006 (+0.25%) April 6, 2006
Eurozone Deposit Rate 1.50% March 2, 2006 (+0.25%) April 6, 2006
Eurozone Marginal Lending Rate 3.50% March 2, 2006 (+0.25%) April 6, 2006
Japan Discount Rate 0.10% September 18, 2001 (-0.15%) April 10-11, 2006
Japan Overnight Call Rate Target 0.00% March 19, 2001 (-0.15%) April 10-11, 2006
Switzerland 3 month LIBOR Range 0.75% - 1.75% March 16, 2006 (+0.25%) June 15, 2006
Canada Overnight Rate Target 3.75% March 7, 2006 (+0.25%) April 25, 2006
Canada Bank Rate 4.00% January 24, 2006 (+0.25%) April 25, 2006
Australia Cash Rate 5.50% March 1, 2005 (+0.25%) April 4, 2006
New Zealand Official Cash Rate 7.25% December 8, 2005 (+0.25%) April 27, 2006

Table 1. Interest rate data (www.forexite.com).

Note

This report reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release. This report is subject to change, it will be reflected in daily analyses.

It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show probable price movements.


Reference


forDmitry@yahoo.com
April 2, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd


Introduction

Trend reversed in favor of the dollar almost as forecasted in Месячном-0306. Though only of the first wave of correction completed. The result may be seen in Figure C1.



Figure C1. Final daily chart of the WA, March, 2006.

For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of CHF behavior is shown here.

Current wave analysis

For wave analysis in large time frames refer to:


First sub-wave (A) or (W) of corrective wave is forming (refer to Figure C2 below). Possible variants of further movement were described in details in USDCHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006) and Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian).



Figure С2. Wave counting on the daily chart. The main variant.

Currently supposed wave (b) of [y] is forming. Taking into consideration the error of this method and two weekends (April 8-9, 2006) trend completion may be expected on April 7-10, 2006. Current wave counting does not contradict this supposition. Though in case of a strong final movement only its first sub-wave i of (c) may form above this key pulse point.

In this case the alternate variant differs only by the depth of the final upward movement (refer to Figure C3 below).



Figure С3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Alternate variants.

One of possible alternate variants is shown in Figure C3. According to this variant wave (A) or (W) is completed. In this case the “Double top”, classical pattern of the technical analysis, may be formed.

For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.



Addition of April 10, 2006


Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs



Reference

* Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY (Wave Analysis)

Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
April 2, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd




Introduction

Trend reversed in favor of the dollar almost as forecasted in Monthly Wave Analysis, March, 2006. Though only of the first wave of correction completed. The result may be seen in Figure E1.



Figure E1. Final daily chart of the WA, March, 2006.

For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of EUR behavior is shown here.

Current wave analysis

For wave analysis in large time frames refer to:

First sub-wave (A) or (W) of corrective wave is forming (refer to Figure Е2 below). Possible variants of further movement were described in details in EURUSD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006) and inversely in Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian).



Figure E2. Wave counting on the daily chart. The main variant.

Currently supposed wave (b) of [y] is forming. Taking into consideration the error of this method and two weekends (April 8-9, 2006) trend completion may be expected on April 7-10, 2006. Current wave counting does not contradict this supposition. Though in case of a strong final movement only its first sub-wave i of (c) may form above this key pulse point.

In this case the alternate variant differs only by the depth of the final downward movement (refer to Figure E3 below).



Figure E3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Alternate variant.

One of possible alternate variants is shown in Figure E3. According to this variant wave (A) or (W) is completed. In this case “Double bottom”, classical pattern of the technical analysis, may be formed.

For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.


Addition of April 10, 2006


Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs


Reference


* Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY (Wave Analysis)
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
April 2, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 15:20 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 10:09 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction

Trend reversed in favor of the dollar almost as forecasted in Monthly Wave Analysis, March, 2006. Though only of the first wave of correction completed. The result may be seen in Figure G1.



Figure G1. Final daily chart of the WA, March, 2006.

For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of GBP behavior is shown here.

Current wave analysis

For wave analysis in large time frames refer to: For more information about possible movement of GBPUSD refer to the article Possible Variants of Correction Development until March, 2006 (in Russian).

First sub-wave (A) or (W) of corrective wave is forming (refer to Figure G2 below). Possible variants of further movement were described in details in Annual Wave Analysis, 2006 and the mirror image was given in the article Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian).



Figure G2. Wave counting on weekly chart. The main variant.

Currently supposed wave (b) of [y] is forming in the shape of the running triangle (approximately a year ago the same triangle was formed on the skewer). Taking into consideration the error of this method and two weekends (April 8-9, 2006) trend completion may be expected on April 7-10, 2006. Current wave counting does not contradict this supposition. Though in case of a strong final movement only its first sub-wave i of (c) may form above this key pulse point.

In this case the alternate variant differs only by the depth of the final downward movement (refer to Figure G3 below).



Figure G3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Alternate variant.

One of possible alternate variants is shown in Figure G3. According to this variant wave (A) or (W) is completed. In this case the “Double bottom”, classical pattern of the technical analysis, may be formed.

For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.


Addition of April 10, 2006


Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs


Reference


Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
April 2, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd



Introduction

Trend reversed in favor of the dollar almost as forecasted in Monthly Wave Analysis, March, 2006. Though only of the first wave of correction completed. The result may be seen in Figure Y1.

On March 9 this counting was adjusted to the changed wave picture (refer to Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY (Wave Analysis)).



Figure Y1. Final daily chart of the WA, March, 2006.

For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of JPY behavior is shown here.

Current wave analysis

For wave analysis in large time frames refer to: First sub-wave (A) of the final wave of horizontal triangle [E] is forming (Figure Y2 below). Possible variants of further movement were described in details in Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY (Wave Analysis).



Figure Y2. Wave counting on the weekly chart. The main variant.

Currently supposed wave 4 is forming. Completion of the final wave of uptrend 5 is expected at the beginning of April simultaneously with the European currencies. Though in case of strong final movement above the key point April 7-10, 2006 only the first sub-wave [1] of 5 may form.

In this case the alternate variant differs only by the depth of the final upward movement (refer to Figure Y3 below).



Figure Y3. Wave counting on daily chart. Alternate variants.

One of possible alternate variants is shown in Figure Y3. According to this variant wave (A) or (W) is completed. In this case the “Double top”, classical pattern of the technical analysis, may be formed.

For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.


Addition of April 10, 2006


Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs


Reference


Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
April 2, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.



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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 10:24 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction

Once the date limit of movement in favor of the dollar, specified three months ago, ran out ( Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2006) I passed to the alternate scenarios, according to which the first zigzag against the dollar is forming now (supposedly as a part of corrective wave B or X). The limit calculating date of this zigzag completion is ~ the mid of July, 2006.

Note

This report reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release. This report is subject to change, it will be reflected in daily analyses or in additional articles in Wave analysis.

It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show probable price movements.



Reference


Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
April 30, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.



Introduction

Once the date limit of movement in favor of the dollar, specified three months ago, ran out ( Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2006 (USD/CHF)) I passed to the alternate scenario (refer to article Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA)) according to which price moved further. For the result refer to Figure C1.



Figure C1. Final daily chart of the WA, April, 2006.

For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of CHF behavior is shown here.

Current wave analysis

For wave analysis in large time frames refer to:

Currently wave (B) or (X) is supposed to be forming.



Figure C2. Wave counting on the daily chart. The main variant.

According to this scenario first zigzag W of wave (B) or (X) is forming. The limit calculating data of this zigzag completion is ~ the mid of July, 2006. Once price fixes below 1.2250 level 1.18 and 1.15 levels will be the most preferable ones for zigzag W completion. They correspond approximately to zigzag legs correlation – 262% and 300%.

For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.


Reference


Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
April 30, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.



Introduction

Once the date limit of movement in favor of the dollar, specified three months ago, ran out ( Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2006 (EUR/USD)) I passed to the alternate scenario (refer to article Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA)) according to which price moved further. For the result refer to Figure E1.



Figure E1. Final daily chart of the WA, April, 2006.

For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of EUR behavior is shown here.

Current wave analysis

For wave analysis in large time frames refer to:

Currently wave (B) or (X) is supposed to be forming.



Figure E2. Wave counting on the daily chart. The main variant.

According to this scenario first zigzag W of wave (B) or (X) is forming. The limit calculating data of this zigzag completion is ~ the mid of July, 2006. Once price fixed behind 1.26 level, levels at 1.31 and 1.35 (1.36 are the most preferable levels for zigzag W completion. They correspond approximately to zigzag legs correlation – 200% and 300%.

For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.


Reference


Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
April 30, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.




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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 10:27 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction

Once the date limit of movement in favor of the dollar, specified three months ago, ran out ( Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2006 (GBPUSD)) I passed to the alternate scenario (refer to article Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA)) according to which price moved further. For the result refer to Figure G1.



Figure G1. Final daily chart of the WA, April, 2006.

For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of GBP behavior is shown here.

Current wave analysis

For wave analysis in large time frames refer to:

Currently wave (B) or (X) is supposed to be forming.



Figure G2. Wave counting on the daily chart. The main variant.

According to this scenario first zigzag W of wave (B) or (X) is forming. The limit calculating data of this zigzag completion is ~ the mid of July, 2006. Once price is fixed behind the imaginary skewer, levels at 1.85, 1.92 and 1.95 are the most preferable levels for zigzag W completion. They correspond approximately to zigzag legs correlation – 162%, 262% and 300%.

Moreover the minimum target of the classical pattern “Head and Shoulders” realization, described in Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA) corresponds to 1.88 level, the maximum – to 1.95.

For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.


Reference


Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
April 30, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.



Introduction

Once the date limit of movement in favor of the dollar, specified three months ago for the European currencies, ran out ( Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2006) I passed to the alternate scenario (refer to article Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA)) according to which price moved further. For the result refer to Figure Y1.



Figure Y1. Final daily chart of the WA, April, 2006.

For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of JPY behavior is shown here.

Current wave analysis

For wave analysis in large time frames refer to:

Currently wave (B) or (X) is forming.



Figure Y2. Wave counting on the daily chart. The main variant.

According to this scenario first zigzag W of wave (B) or (X) is forming. The limit calculating data of this zigzag completion is ~ the mid of July, 2006. Once price is fixed below 113 levels at 108.5, 106.5 and 101.5 are the most preferable levels for zigzag W completion. They correspond approximately to the legs correlation – 127%, 162% and 200%.

For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.


Reference


Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
April 30, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 15:25 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 10:28 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction

According to the senario, accepted earlier, zigzag with the limit calculating date of completion in the mid of July, 2006 is supposed to be forming.

In article Two possible fourth waves till the mid of June (EWA) on May 14 I supposed that the market corrective stage, which may last till the second half of June may have begun (yellow square in the drafts).

Possible variants of price movement are described in the correspondent sections.

Note

This report reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release. This report is subject to change, it will be reflected in daily analyses or in additional articles in Wave analysis.

It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show probable price movements.


Reference


Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
May 27, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd



Introduction

Zigzag [a]--[c], forecasted in Monthly-0506 till the mid of July, has been forming in accordance with the accepted scenario. For the result refer to Figure C1.



Figure C1. Final daily chart of the WA, May-July, 2006.

For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of CHF behavior is shown here.


Current wave analysis

For wave analysis in large time frames refer to:
Currently wave (B) or (X) is supposed to be forming.



Figure С2. Wave counting on the daily chart. The main variant.

According to this scenario first zigzag W of wave (B) or (X) is forming. The limit calculating data of this zigzag completion is ~ the mid of July, 2006. Levels at 1.18 and 1.15 are the most preferable levels for zigzag W completion. They correspond approximately to zigzag legs correlation – 262% and 300%.

On May 14 in article Two possible fourth waves till the mid of June (EWA) I supposed wave iii of (iii) completion and beginning of the “period of the fourth waves”, that is the market corrective phase which may last till the second half of June (yellow square in Figure C2). This supposition is still valid. Possible modes of price movement are described below.



Figure C3. Wave counting of 480min chart. The main variant.

First of all it should be noted that the price has fulfilled the requirement specified for the fourth waves of impulse, namely (refer to Figure C3):
  • Corrective wave pattern, which may be considered to be finished, was formed.
  • The area of the fourth wave of lower wave level was reached.
  • 38% Fibo was reached.
  • MACD crossed the zero line.
  • Duration of wave iv is longer than duration of wave ii.
  • Requirement of correction depth alternation was fulfilled.
  • Supposed ending of wave iv crossed the basis channel line.
The above information signifies that wave iv may be completed. Though it is not confirmed yet. This scenario will be confirmed in case the price falls in the shape of the impulse or diagonal triangle succeeded by forming of another tricky four pattern, (iv), which may last till June ~ 23-26.

The alternate variants of price possible movement are shown in Figure C4 below.



Figure C4. Wave counting of 480min chart. Alternate variants.

According to the alternate variants fourth wave (iv) of the higher level may be forming (or it may be completed).

For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.


Reference



Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
May 27, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.



Introduction

Zigzag [a]--[c], forecasted in Monthly-0506 till the mid of July, has been forming in accordance with the accepted scenario. For the result refer to Figure E1.



Figure E1. Final daily chart of the WA, May-July, 2006.

For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of EUR behavior is shown here.


Current wave analysis

For wave analysis in large time frames refer to:
Currently wave (B) or (X) is supposed to be forming.



Figure E2. Wave counting on the daily chart. The main variant.

According to this scenario first zigzag W of wave (B) or (X) is forming. The limit calculating data of this zigzag completion is ~ the mid of July, 2006. Levels at 1.31 and 1.35 (1.36) are the most preferable levels for zigzag W completion. They correspond approximately to zigzag legs correlation - 262% и 300%.

On May 14 in article Two possible fourth waves till the mid of June (EWA) I supposed wave iii of (iii) completion and beginning of the “period of the fourth waves”, that is the market corrective phase which may last till the second half of June (yellow square in Figure E2). This supposition is still valid. Possible modes of price movement are described below.



Figure E3. Wave counting of 480min chart. The main variant.

First of all it should be noted that the price has fulfilled the requirement specified for the fourth waves of impulse, namely (refer to Figure E3):
  • Corrective wave pattern, which may be considered to be finished, was formed.
  • The area of the fourth wave of lower wave level was reached.
  • 38% Fibo was reached.
  • MACD crossed the zero line.
  • Duration of wave iv is longer than duration of wave ii.
  • Requirement of correction depth alternation was fulfilled.
  • Supposed ending of wave iv crossed the basis channel line.
The above information signifies that wave iv may be completed. Though it is not confirmed yet. This scenario will be confirmed in case the price rises in the shape of the impulse or diagonal triangle succeeded by forming of another tricky four pattern, (iv), which may last till June ~ 23-26.

The alternate variants of price possible movement are shown in Figure E4 below.



Figure E4. Wave counting of 480min chart. Alternate variants.

According to the alternate variants fourth wave (iv) of the higher level may be forming (or it may be completed).

For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.


Reference



Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
May 27, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 15:27 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 10:29 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction

Zigzag [a]--[c], forecasted in Monthly-0506 till the mid of July, has been forming in accordance with the accepted scenario. For the result refer to Figure G1. Moreover the lowest target (1.88) of the classical pattern “Head and Shoulders” forming, described in article Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA), has been reached.



Figure G1. Final daily chart of the WA, May-July, 2006.

For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of GBP behavior is shown here.


Current wave analysis

For wave analysis in large time frames refer to:
Currently wave (B) or (X) is supposed to be forming.



Figure G2. Wave counting on the daily chart. The main variant.

According to this scenario first zigzag W of wave (B) or (X) is forming. The limit calculating data of this zigzag completion is ~ the mid of July, 2006. Levels at 1.92 and 1.95 are the most preferable levels for zigzag W completion. They correspond approximately to zigzag legs correlation – 262% and 300%.

On May 14 in article Two possible fourth waves till the mid of June (EWA) I supposed wave iii of (iii) completion and beginning of the “period of the fourth waves”, that is the market corrective phase which may last till the second half of June (yellow square in Figure G2). This supposition is still valid. Possible modes of price movement are described below.



Figure G3. Wave counting of 480min chart. The main variant.

First of all it should be noted that the price has fulfilled the requirement specified for the fourth waves of impulse, namely (refer to Figure G3):
  • Corrective wave pattern, which may be considered to be finished, was formed.
  • The area of the fourth wave of lower wave level was reached.
  • 38% Fibo was almost reached.
  • MACD crossed the zero line.
  • Duration of wave iv is longer than duration of wave ii.
  • Requirement of correction depth alternation was fulfilled.
  • Supposed ending of wave iv crossed the basis channel line.
The above information signifies that wave iv may be completed. Though it is not confirmed yet. This scenario will be confirmed in case the price rises in the shape of the impulse or diagonal triangle succeeded by forming of another tricky four pattern, (iv), which may last till June ~ 23-26.

The alternate variants of price possible movement are shown in Figure G4 below.



Figure G4. Wave counting of 480min chart. Alternate variants.

According to the alternate variants fourth wave (iv) of the higher level may be forming (or it may be completed).

For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.


Reference



Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
May 27, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.



Introduction

Zigzag [a]--[c], forecasted in Monthly-0506 till the mid of July, has been forming in accordance with the accepted scenario. For the result refer to Figure Y1.



Figure Y1. Final daily chart of the WA, May-July, 2006.

For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of JPY behavior is shown here.


Current wave analysis

For wave analysis in large time frames refer to:

Currently wave (B) or (X) is supposed to be forming.



Figure Y2. Wave counting on the daily chart.

According to this scenario first zigzag W of wave (B) or (X) is forming. The limit calculating data of this zigzag completion is still ~ the mid of July, 2006. Levels at 108.5, 106.5 and 101.5 are the most preferable levels for zigzag W completion. They correspond approximately to the legs correlation – 127%, 162% and 200%.

On May 14 in article Two possible fourth waves till the mid of June (EWA) I supposed wave (iii) completion and beginning of the market corrective phase, which may last till the second half of June (yellow square in Figure C2). This supposition is still valid.

For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.



Ссылки по теме

Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
May 27, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 10:42 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction

Though trend against the dollar reversed above the key pulse point, on the depth of correction in May-June we may suppose another scenario of corrective wave (B) or (X) development.

Possible variants of price movement are described in the respective sections.

Note

This report reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release. This report is subject to change, it will be reflected in daily analyses or in additional articles in Wave analysis.

It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show probable price movements.

Reference


Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
July 01, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd




Introduction

Corrective movement forecasted in Monthly-0606 till June 23-26 was forming in accordance with the accepted scenario and completed above the key pulse point. For the result refer to Figures C1 and C2.



Figure C1. Final daily chart of the WA, May-July, 2006.



Figure C2. Final 480 min chart of the WA, June, 2006.

For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of CHF behavior is shown here.


Current wave analysis

For wave analysis in large time frames refer to:
Currently wave (B) or (X) is supposed to be forming.



Figure C3. Wave counting on daily chart.

The depth of the correction formed in June gives ground for another scenario of wave (B) or (X) development than assumed earlier (Figure C3). Though previous scenario (refer to Monthly-0606) is still possible. The alternate variant is shown in grey color.

According to this scenario wave (B) or (X) may assume the shape of the triple zigzag or of more complicated zigzag correction. 1.18 and 1.15 are the most preferable levels for triple zigzag completion. Several projections of its completion, specified through the main waves correlations and fibo coefficients, are concentrated around these levels.

For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.


Reference


Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
July 01, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.





Introduction

Corrective movement forecasted in Monthly-0606 till June 23-26 was forming in accordance with the accepted scenario and completed above the key pulse point. For the result refer to Figures E1 and E2.



Figure E1. Final daily chart of the WA, May-July, 2006.



Figure E2. Final 480 min chart of the WA, June, 2006.

For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of EUR behavior is shown here.


Current wave analysis

For wave analysis in large time frames refer to:
Currently wave (B) or (X) is supposed to be forming.



Figure E3. Wave counting on daily chart.

The depth of the correction formed in June gives ground for another scenario of wave (B) or (X) development than assumed earlier (Figure E3). Though previous scenario (refer to Monthly-0606) is still possible. The alternate variant is shown in grey color.

According to this scenario wave (B) or (X) may assume the shape of the triple zigzag or of more complicated zigzag correction. 1.31 and 1.35 (36) are the most preferable levels for triple zigzag completion. Several projections of its completion, specified through the main waves correlations and fibo coefficients, are concentrated around these levels.

For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.


Reference


Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
July 01, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 15:30 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 10:42 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction

Corrective movement forecasted in Monthly-0606 till June 23-26 was forming in accordance with the accepted scenario and completed above the key pulse point. For the result refer to Figures G1 and G2.



Figure G1. Final daily chart of the WA, May-July, 2006.



Figure G2. Final 480 min chart of the WA, June, 2006.

For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of GBP behavior is shown here.


Current wave analysis

For wave analysis in large time frames refer to:
Currently wave (B) or (X) is supposed to be forming.



Figure G3. Wave counting on daily chart.

The depth of the correction formed in June gives ground for another scenario of wave (B) or (X) development than assumed earlier (Figure G3). Though previous scenario (refer to Monthly-0606) is still possible. The alternate variant is shown in grey color.

According to this scenario wave (B) or (X) may assume the shape of the triple zigzag or of more complicated zigzag correction. 1.92 and 1.95 are the most preferable levels for triple zigzag completion. Several projections of its completion, specified through the main waves correlations and fibo coefficients, are concentrated around these levels.

For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.


Reference


Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
July 01, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.



Introduction

Corrective movement forecasted in Monthly-0606 till June 23-26 was forming in accordance with the accepted scenario and completed above the key pulse point. For the result refer to Figure Y1.



Figure Y1. Final daily chart of the WA, May-July, 2006.

For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of JPY behavior is shown here.


Current wave analysis

For wave analysis in large time frames refer to:

Currently wave (B) or (X) is supposed to be forming.



Figure Y2. Wave counting on the daily chart.

The depth of the correction formed in June gives ground for another scenario of wave (B) or (X) development than assumed earlier (Figure Y2). The alternate variant is shown in grey color.

According to this scenario wave (B) or (X) may assume the shape of the triple zigzag or of more complicated zigzag correction. 108.5 and 106.5 are the most preferable levels for triple zigzag completion. Several projections of its completion, specified through the main waves correlations and fibo coefficients, are concentrated around these levels.

For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.



Reference

Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
July 01, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.


[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 15:33 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 10:45 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction

Judging by price movement against the dollar we may assume that suppositions, described in Annual-06, begin to fulfil. That is the second high (B) or (X) of the global correction will form “before November, 2006**.

Possible variants of price movement are described in the respective sections.

Note

This report reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release. This report is subject to change, it will be reflected in daily analyses or in additional articles in Wave analysis.

It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show probable price movements.


Reference


Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
August 12, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd





Introduction

Price movement forecasted in Monthly-0706 preferred the alternate scenario. For the result refer to Figure C1.



Figure C1. Final daily chart of the WA, July, 2006.

For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of CHF behavior is shown here.


Current wave analysis

For wave analysis in large time frames refer to:

According to the main scenario currently wave (B) or (X) is forming, it is assuming the shape of downward triple zigzag.



Figure C2. Wave counting on the daily chart. The main variant.

The last downward fife-wave, which may be wave [a] of Z, is supposed to be completed. In case the supposition is correct wave of the final zigzag Z may form by the end of August. Ending of the second wave-link X is the critical level for this scenario.

1.18 and 1.15 are still the most preferable levels for the triple zigzag (B) or (X) completion. Several projections of its ending, calculated by the main correlations of zigzag waves and fibo coefficients, are placed there.



Figure C3. Wave counting on the daily chart. The alternate variant.

According to the alternate variant downtrend should continue immediately. Two possible variants of wave counting are given in Figure C3.

For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.



Reference

Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
August 12, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd



Introduction

Price movement forecasted in Monthly-0706 preferred the alternate scenario. For the result refer to Figure E1.



Figure E1. Final daily chart of the WA, July, 2006.

For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of EUR behavior is shown here.


Current wave analysis

For wave analysis in large time frames refer to:
According to the main scenario currently wave (B) or (X) is forming, it is assuming the shape of upward triple zigzag.



Figure E2. Wave counting on the daily chart. The main variant.

The last upward fife-wave, which may be wave [a] of Z, is supposed to be completed. In case the supposition is correct wave of the final zigzag Z may form by the end of August. Ending of the second wave-link X is the critical level for this scenario.

1.31 and 1.35 (1.36) are still the most preferable levels for the triple zigzag (B) or (X) completion. Several projections of its ending, calculated by the main correlations of zigzag waves and fibo coefficients, are placed there.



Figure E3. Wave counting on the daily chart. The alternate variant.

According to the alternate variant uptrend should continue immediately. Two possible variants of wave counting are given in Figure E3.

For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.


Reference


Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
August 12, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.



[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 15:34 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 10:46 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction

Price movement forecasted in Monthly-0706 is forming in accordance with the forecast. For the result refer to Figure G1.



Figure G1. Final daily chart of the WA, July, 2006.

For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of GBP behavior is shown here.


Current wave analysis

For wave analysis in large time frames refer to:
According to the main scenario wave (B) or (X) is forming currently, it is assuming the shape of upward triple zigzag.



Figure G2. Wave counting on daily chart. The main variant.

The last upward five-wave, which may be wave [a] of Z, is supposed to be completed. In case the supposition is correct wave of the final zigzag Z may form by the end of August. Ending of the second wave-link X is the critical level for this scenario.

1.92 and 1.95 are the most preferable levels for triple zigzag (B) or (X) completion. Several projections of its completion, specified through the main waves correlations and fibo coefficients, are concentrated around these levels.



Figure G3. Wave counting on daily chart. The alternate variant.

According to one of the alternate variants the second wave-link X may keep forming till the mid of October (Figure G3).

For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.


Reference


Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
August 12, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd




Introduction

Price movement forecasted in Monthly-0706 preferred the alternate scenario. For the result refer to Figure Y1.



Figure Y1. Final daily chart of the WA, July, 2006.

For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of JPY behavior is shown here.


Current wave analysis

For wave analysis in large time frames refer to:
According to the main scenario currently wave (B) or (X) is forming, it is assuming the shape of downward triple zigzag.



Figure Y2. Wave counting on the daily chart. The main variant.

The last downward fifth-wave, which may be wave [a] of Z, is supposed to be completed. In case the supposition is correct wave of the final zigzag Z may form by the end of August. Ending of the second wave-link X is the critical level for this scenario.

108.5 and 106.5 are the most preferable levels for the triple zigzag (B) or (X) completion. Several projections of its ending, calculated by the main correlations of zigzag waves and fibo coefficients, are placed there.

As forming lines of the triple zigzag are assuming the shape of the expanding pattern, we may assume that the zigzag ending will not reach the lower edge of the channel.



Figure Y3. Wave counting on the daily chart. The alternate variant.

According to the alternate variant downtrend should continue immediately. Two possible variants of wave counting are given in Figure Y3.

For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.


Reference


Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
August 12, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 15:36 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 10:48 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction

Judging by price movement against the dollar we may assume that suppositions, described in Annual-06, for the European currencies begin to fulfil. That is the second high (B) or (X) of the global correction will form “before November, 2006**.

As for USD/JPY, in the article new variant of wave counting is given, the previous scenario, described earlier, is not annulled yet.

Possible variants of price movement are described in the respective sections.

Note

This report reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release. This report is subject to change, it will be reflected in daily analyses or in additional articles in Wave analysis.

It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show probable price movements.


Reference


Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
September 2, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.



Introduction

Price movement for August-September, projected in Monthly-0806, is developing in accordance with the forecast. For the result refer to Figure C1.



Figure C1. Final daily chart of the WA, August-September, 2006.

For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of CHF behavior is shown here.


Current wave analysis

For wave analysis in large time frames refer to:
According to the main scenario currently wave (B) or (X) is forming, it is assuming the shape of downward triple zigzag W-X-Y-X-Z.



Figure C2. Wave counting on the daily chart.

Corrective wave of the final zigzag Z is supposed to be completed. First waves of the final impulse [c] of Z are forming. Wave of Z ending is the critical level for this scenario.

1.18 resistance is the most preferable level for the triple zigzag (B) or (X) completion. Several main projected values of wave [c] of Z ending are given in the chart, the area of projected values is marked with a red-yellow ellipse (Figure C2).

Wave [c] of Z projection overlapping with the lower edge of the channel of zigzag Z and crossing with the mid line of the triple zigzag W-X-Y-X-Z channel may serve as an additional argument in favor of this area of calculated values.

Alternate area of calculated values of zigzag Z ending is given in the chart in grey color.

For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.


Reference


Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
September 2, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.





Introduction

Price movement for August-September, projected in Monthly-0806, is developing in accordance with the forecast. For the result refer to Figure E1.



Figure E1. Final daily chart of the WA, August-September, 2006.

For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of EUR behavior is shown here.


Current wave analysis

For wave analysis in large time frames refer to:

According to the main scenario currently wave (B) or (X) is forming, it is assuming the shape of upward triple zigzag W-X-Y-X-Z.



Figure E2. Wave counting on the daily chart.

Corrective wave of the final zigzag Z is supposed to be completed. First waves of the final impulse [c] of Z are forming. Wave of Z ending is the critical level for this scenario.

1.31 resistance is still the most preferable level for the triple zigzag (B) or (X) completion. Several main projected values of wave [c] of Z ending are given in the chart, the area of projected values is marked with a red-yellow ellipse (Figure E2).

Wave [c] of Z projection approaching to the lower edge of the channel of zigzag Z and crossing with the mid line of the triple zigzag W-X-Y-X-Z channel may serve as an additional argument in favor of this area of calculated values.

Alternate area of calculated values of zigzag Z ending is given in the chart in grey color.

For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.



Reference

Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
September 2, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd



[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 15:38 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 10:49 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction

Price movement for August-September, projected in Monthly-0806, is developing in accordance with the forecast. For the result refer to Figure G1.



Figure G1. Final daily chart of the WA, August-September, 2006.

For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of GBP behavior is shown here.


Current wave analysis

For wave analysis in large time frames refer to:
According to the main scenario wave (B) or (X) is forming currently, it is assuming the shape of upward triple zigzag W-X-Y-X-Z.



Figure G2. Wave counting on daily chart.

Corrective wave of the final zigzag Z is supposed to be completed. First waves of the final impulse [c] of Z are forming. Wave of Z ending is the critical level for this scenario.

1.95 resistance is still the most preferable level for the triple zigzag (B) or (X) completion. Several main projected values of wave [c] of Z ending are given in the chart, the area of projected values is marked with a red-yellow ellipse (Figure G2).
Wave [c] of Z projection crossing with the mid line of the triple zigzag W-X-Y-X-Z channel may serve as an additional argument in favor of this area of calculated values.

For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.


Reference


Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
September 2, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.




Introduction

Price movement for August-September, projected in Monthly-0806, is developing in accordance with the forecast. For the result refer to Figure Y1.



Figure Y1. Final daily chart of the WA, August-September, 2006.

For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of JPY behavior is shown here.


Current wave analysis

For wave analysis in large time frames refer to:

The main variant of wave counting has been adjusted. Final wave [E] of the horizontal triangle is supposed to be forming, it may assume the shape of zigzag (A)-(B)-(C), the most popular pattern for triangle waves (Figure Y2).



Figure Y2. Wave counting on the weekly chart.

Wave (B) may be already completed in accordance with this scenario, the second leg (C) of the zigzag may be forming, it may assume the shape of the impulse or diagonal triangle.



Figure Y3. Wave counting on the daily chart.

In case the supposition is correct, currently corrective wave 2 of upward impulse (C) is forming (Figure Y3). It is logical to expect its completion around 62% of Fibo retracement and 113.0 resistance level.

For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.



Reference

Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
September 2, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 15:39 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 10:51 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction

Suppositions given in Annual-06 are confirmed. Thus it is possible that corrective wave (B) or (X) of the global correction will complete its forming till November 2006.

USD/JPY price movement is slightly different from the movement of the European currencies, but at the end of October forming of the corrective wave ending (it may be wave 2) is also expected.

Most probable variants of price movement are described in the respective sections.

Note

This report reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release. This report is subject to change, it will be reflected in daily analyses or in additional articles in Wave analysis.

It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show probable price movements.


Reference


Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
October 1, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd



Introduction

Early completion of correction projected in Monthly-0906 has not been confirmed. On the back of it at the mid of the month the forecast was adjusted according to the new data (refer to Possible scenarios of USD strengthening (EWA of CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD)). For the result refer to Figure C1.



Figure C1. Final daily chart of the WA, September-October, 2006.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of CHF two-week-old movement is given in the chart.


Current wave analysis

For wave analysis in large time frames refer to:

In the period of supposed global trend breakout the number of possible wave scenarios increases repeatedly. That is why some scenarios, described in August-September, are not annulled yet and still have right to exist. At the same time the following joined picture of the weekly charts (Figure C2) should be paid attention to.



Figure C2. Joined picture of the weekly charts of the main dollar currency pairs.

It can be clearly seen that from the mid of May some wave construction has been forming in the charts (inside the ellipse), by its structure it is closer to a correction rather than an impulse translational motion of prices. In three cases out of four this correction may be presented in the shape of the horizontal triangle both by its inner structure and external shape.

Two possible variants of wave counting for CHF were described in details in article Possible scenarios of USD strengthening (EWA of CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD). Though strong unwillingness of the dollar to strengthen in the impulse mode increases USD/CHF chances that extended correction, which features are close to the features of the horizontal triangles, will form.

That is why after expected completion of this many-week correction final price thrust downwards against the dollar by ~ 600..800 points is logical to expect. In case the suppositions are correct upward reverse in favor of the dollar of the global trend, expected from the beginning of the year, will form above the key pulse point around the 20th of October (refer to Annual-06).

According to the accepted scenario currently wave (B) or (X) is forming, it is assuming the shape of downward triple zigzag W-X-Y-X-Z (Figure C3).



Figure C3. Wave counting on the daily chart.

Second corrective wave X of the triple zigzag is supposed to be almost completed. I am sorry to say that it is not confirmed yet. Ending of the first wave X is the critical level for this scenario.

1.20...1.18 resistance level is still the most preferable level for triple zigzag (B) or (X) completion. Though the area of projected values should be adjusted once completion of wave XX is confirmed.

Wave Z projection crossing with the mid line of the trend channel of triple zigzag W-X-Y-X-Z may serve as an additional argument in favor of this area of calculated values.

For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.



Reference

Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
October 1, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd



Introduction

Early completion of correction projected in Monthly-0906 has not been confirmed. On the back of it at the mid of the month the forecast was adjusted according to the new data (refer to Possible scenarios of USD strengthening (EWA of CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD)). For the result refer to Figure E1.



Figure E1. Final daily chart of the WA, September-October, 2006.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of EUR two-week-old movement is given in the chart.


Current variant of wave counting

For survey wave counting of CHF in large time frames refer to:

In the period of supposed global trend breakout the number of possible wave scenarios increases repeatedly. That is why some scenarios, described in August-September, are not annulled yet and still have right to exist. At the same time the following joined picture of the weekly charts (Figure E2) should be paid attention to.



Figure E2. Joined picture of the weekly charts of the main dollar currency pairs.

It can be clearly seen that from the mid of May some wave construction has been forming in the charts (inside the ellipse), by its structure it is closer to a correction rather than an impulse translational motion of prices. In three cases out of four this correction may be presented in the shape of the horizontal triangle both by its inner structure and external shape.

Possible variant of EUR wave counting was described in details in article Possible scenarios of USD strengthening (EWA of CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD). Though strong unwillingness of the dollar to strengthen in the impulse mode increases EUR/USD chances that a horizontal triangle or another extended horizontal correction, which features are close to the features of the horizontal triangles, will form.

That is why after expected completion of this many-week correction final price thrust upwards against the dollar by ~ 600..800 points is logical to expect. In case the suppositions are correct downward reverse in favor of the dollar of the global trend, expected from the beginning of the year, will form above the key pulse point around the 20th of October (refer to Annual-06).

According to the accepted scenario currently wave (B) or (X) is forming, it is assuming the shape of upward triple zigzag W-X-Y-X-Z (Figure E3).



Figure E3. Wave counting on the daily chart.

Second corrective wave X of the triple zigzag is supposed to be almost completed. I am sorry to say that it is not confirmed yet. Ending of the first wave X is the critical level for this scenario. Moreover, labeling of the final highs of triangle [c], [d], [e] is quite conventional, to maintain the status of the horizontal triangle this correction should not cross another critical level which goes through the ending of wave [a] of XX.

1.31..1.32 resistance level is still the most preferable level for triple zigzag (B) or (X) completion. Though the area of projected values should be adjusted once completion of wave XX is confirmed.

Wave Z projection crossing with the mid line of the trend channel of triple zigzag W-X-Y-X-Z may serve as an additional argument in favor of this area of calculated values.

For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.



Reference

Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
October 1, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd


[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 15:41 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 10:52 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction

Early completion of correction projected in Monthly-0906 has not been confirmed. On the back of it at the mid of the month the forecast was adjusted according to the new data (refer to Possible scenarios of USD strengthening (EWA of CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD)). For the result refer to Figure G1.



Figure G1. Final daily chart of the WA, September-October, 2006.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of GBP two-week-old movement is given in the chart.


Current variant of wave counting

For survey wave counting of GBP in large time frames refer to:
In the period of supposed global trend breakout the number of possible wave scenarios increases repeatedly. That is why some scenarios, described in August-September, are not annulled yet and still have right to exist. At the same time the following joined picture of the weekly charts (Figure G2) should be paid attention to.



Figure G2. Joined picture of the weekly charts of the main dollar currency pairs.

It can be clearly seen that from the mid of May some wave construction has been forming in the charts (inside the ellipse), by its structure it is closer to a correction rather than an impulse translational motion of prices. In three cases out of four this correction may be presented in the shape of the horizontal triangle both by its inner structure and external shape.

Possible variants of GBP wave counting were described in details in article Possible scenarios of USD strengthening (EWA of CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD). Though current wave pattern may be presented in the shape of the horizontal triangle or another extended correction, which features are close to the features of the horizontal triangles.

That is why after expected completion of this many-week correction final price thrust upwards against the dollar by ~ 600..800 points is logical to expect. In case the suppositions are correct downward reverse in favor of the dollar of the global trend, expected from the beginning of the year, will form above the key pulse point around the 20th of October (refer to Annual-06).

According to the accepted scenario currently wave (B) or (X) is forming, it is assuming the shape of upward double (or triple?) zigzag W-X-Y (Figure G3).



Figure G3. Wave counting on the daily chart.

Corrective wave of Y, which is assuming the shape of the horizontal triangle inside the final zigzag Y, is supposed to be almost completed. It is not confirmed yet. Ending of wave X is the critical level for this scenario. Moreover, labeling of the final highs of triangle (c), (d), (e) is quite conventional, to maintain the status of the horizontal triangle this correction should not cross another critical level which goes through the ending of wave (a) of .

1.92..1.95 resistance level is still the most preferable level for supposed double (or triple?) zigzag (B) or (X) completion. Though the area of projected values should be adjusted once completion of wave of Y is confirmed.

Wave Y projection crossing with the mid line of the trend channel of double zigzag W-X-Y may serve as an additional argument in favor of this area of calculated values.

For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.


Reference


Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
October 1, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd



Introduction

Early completion of correction projected in Monthly-0906 has not been confirmed. On the back of it at the mid of the month the forecast was adjusted according to the new data (refer to Possible scenarios of USD strengthening (EWA of CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD)). For the result refer to Figure Y1.



Figure Y1. Final daily chart of the WA, September-October, 2006.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of JPY two-week-old movement is given in the chart.


Current variant of wave counting

For survey wave counting of JPY in large time frames refer to:

In the period of supposed global trend breakout the number of possible wave scenarios increases repeatedly. That is why some scenarios, described in August-September, still have right to exist. At the same time the following joined picture of the weekly charts (Figure Y2) should be paid attention to.



Figure Y2. Joined picture of the weekly charts of the main dollar currency pairs.

It can be clearly seen that from the mid of May some wave construction has been forming in the charts (inside the ellipse), by its structure it is closer to a correction rather than an impulse translational motion of prices. In three cases out of four this correction may be presented in the shape of the horizontal triangle both by its inner structure and external shape.



Figure Y3. Weekly chart of USD/JPY.

JPY weekly chart differs slightly from this group of the dollar pairs due to JPY lunge from May 2006. In this case the nearest price retracement against the dollar is also required. Moreover, the variant of extended correction forming (supposed wave (B)), which began in December 2005, is not annulled yet.



Figure Y4. Wave counting on the daily chart.

Current variant of JPY wave counting was described in details in article Possible scenarios of USD strengthening (Figure Y4).

According to the accepted scenario currently corrective wave 2 is forming. It is assuming the shape of the extended flat. That is why after expected completion of triple zigzag of 2 final price thrust against the dollar (by ~ 600 points) is logical to expect. In case the suppositions are correct global trend reversal in favor of the dollar, expected from the beginning of the year, will form above the key pulse point around the 20th of October (refer to Annual-06).

1.13..1.12 resistance level is still the most preferable level for correction 2 completion. Though the area of projected values should be adjusted once completion of wave of 2 is confirmed.



Figure Y5. Wave counting on the daily chart. Alternate scenario.

In Figure Y5 one of possible alternate variants is given. In accordance with it corrective wave (B) still may keep forming (till the critical level (in this case it is the ending of the first wave link X) is not broken) and price may fall to 111.0..108.0.

Note that the final upward construction of JPY may be treated both as a valid pattern of the motive phase of the market (diagonal triangle as the final leg of zigzag X, Figure Y5) and as a correction (triple zigzag as wave of extended flat 2, Figure Y4) due to its wave formula 3-3-3-3-3. In both cases the nearest fall of the dollar is expected.

For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.



Reference

Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
October 1, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 15:43 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 10:54 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction

Unfortunately, supposed completed corrective three pattern as the second wave of the global correction has not formed by November 2006 in spite of certain conditions. Another possible extra limit date of wave (B) completion, also described in Annual-06, is probable in spring-summer of 2007. Possible survey scenarios were described in details in article Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007.

Most probable variants of price movement are described in the respective sections.

Note

This report reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release. This report is subject to change, it will be reflected in daily analyses or in additional articles in Wave analysis.

It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show probable price movements.


Reference


Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
October 29, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd



Introduction

USD fall, supposed in Monthly-1006, began a bit later than expected. For the result refer to Figure C1.



Figure C1. Final daily chart of the WA, October, 2006.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of CHF two-week-old movement is given in the chart.


Current variant of wave counting

For survey wave counting of CHF in large time frames refer to:

Unfortunately, supposed completed corrective three pattern as wave (B) or (X) of the global correction has not formed by November 2006. Another possible extra limit date of this wave completion, also described in Annual-06, is probable in spring-summer of 2007. Possible survey scenarios were described in details in article Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007.

According to the accepted scenario, currently the final part of wave (B) or (X) is forming, it may assume the shape of downward triple zigzag W-X-Y-X-Z (Figure C2). At the same time forming of more complicated zigzag structure is also possible.



Figure C2. Wave counting on the daily chart.

Completion of the second corrective wave X is not confirmed yet, on the back of it a variety of possible variants of further movement arises. It is possible that this corrective wave will keep forming and transform into the triple three with a slight skew against the dominant trend.

Supposed wedge (i)?, formed last week, is an argument in favor of further downtrend, it may be treated as an indication of possible powerful trend.

For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.



Reference

Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
October 29, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya




Introduction

USD fall, supposed in Monthly-1006, began a bit later than expected. For the result refer to Figure E1.



Figure E1. Final daily chart of the WA, October, 2006.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of EUR two-week-old movement is given in the chart.


Current variant of wave counting

For survey wave counting of EUR in large time frames refer to:
Unfortunately, supposed completed corrective three pattern as wave (B) or (X) of the global correction has not formed by November 2006. Another possible extra limit date of this wave completion, also described in Annual-06, is probable in spring-summer of 2007. Possible survey scenarios were described in details in article Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007.

According to the accepted scenario, currently the final part of wave (B) or (X) is forming, it may assume the shape of upward triple zigzag W-X-Y-X-Z (Figure E2). At the same time forming of more complicated zigzag structure is also possible.



Figure E2. Wave counting on the daily chart.

Completion of the second corrective wave X is not confirmed yet, on the back of it a variety of possible variants of further movement arises. It is possible that this corrective wave will keep forming and transform into the triple three, horizontal or skewed triangle.

Supposed wedge (i)?, formed last week, is an argument in favor of further uptrend, it may be treated as an indication of possible powerful trend.

For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.


Reference

Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
October 29, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya


[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 15:44 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 10:55 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction

USD fall, supposed in Monthly-1006, began a bit later than expected. For the result refer to Figure G1.



Figure G1. Final daily chart of the WA, October, 2006.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of GBP two-week-old movement is given in the chart.


Current variant of wave counting

For survey wave counting of GBP in large time frames refer to:
Unfortunately, supposed completed corrective three pattern as wave (B) or (X) of the global correction has not formed by November 2006. Another possible extra limit date of this wave completion, also described in Annual-06, is probable in spring-summer of 2007. Possible survey scenarios were described in details in article Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007.

According to the accepted scenario, currently the final part of wave (B) or (X) is forming, it may assume the shape of upward triple zigzag W-X-Y-X-Z (Figure G2). At the same time forming of more complicated zigzag structure is also possible.



Figure G2. Wave counting on the daily chart.

Completion of the second corrective wave X is not confirmed yet, on the back of it a variety of possible variants of further movement arises. It is possible that this corrective wave will keep forming and transform into the triple three, horizontal or skewed triangle.

Supposed impulse (i)?, formed last week, is an argument in favor of further uptrend, it may be treated as an indication of possible powerful trend.

For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.


Reference


Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
October 29, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya




Introduction

USD fall, supposed in Monthly-1006, began a bit later than expected. For the result refer to Figure Y1.



Figure Y1. Final daily chart of the WA, October, 2006.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of JPY two-week-old movement is given in the chart.


Current variant of wave counting

For survey wave counting of JPY in large time frames refer to:
Unfortunately, supposed completed corrective three pattern as wave (B) or (X) of the global correction has not formed by November 2006. Another possible extra limit date of this wave completion, also described in Annual-06, is probable in spring-summer of 2007. Possible survey scenarios were described in details in article Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007.

According to the accepted scenario, currently the final part of wave (B) or (X) is forming, it may assume the shape of flat A-B-C or double three W-X-Y (Figure Y2). At the same time forming of more extended zigzag structure is also possible.



Figure Y2. Wave counting on the daily chart.

Wave B or X completion is not confirmed yet, on the back of it a variety of possible variants of further movement arises. It is possible that this corrective wave will keep forming and transform into a double zigzag.

For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.


Reference

Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
October 29, 2006


[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 15:45 编辑 ]

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