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MACD俱乐部»论坛 › ◇ 技术分析区 ◇ › 〖期货技术交流〗 › 一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手
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楼主: hefeiddd

一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 08:52 | 显示全部楼层
The US dollar’s strengthening continues. Possible scenarios of the nearest events are considered in  this forecast.
1.  EUR/USD

Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Supposedly the price is developing wave (iv) in the form of an extended correction (refer to section 3.8. of my book). If this is the case combined with the depth and shape of the preceding correction (ii) it may speak indirectly of the development of downward impulse or A, and not a zigzag.
At the same time the alternate variant doesn’t rule out that wave (iv) has completed already having assumed the shape of a double three.
2.  GBP/USD

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.



Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.

Supposedly skewed triangle XX.  is developing. Without canceling the variant considered yesterday (refer to Daily-040109), it should be noted that one of the possible scenarios assumes that this triangle is completed already.
3.  USD/JPY

Figure 5. Wave counting on 720 min chart. Variant 3dt.



Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dt.

It isn’t ruled out that the price is developing wave (B) in the form of an extended correction (refer to section 3.8. of my book). Without cancelling the variant considered yesterday (refer to Daily-040109), it should be noted that one of possible scenarios assumes that wave (B) is completed yet.
4.  USD/CHF

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Supposedly the price is developing wave (iv) in the form of an extended correction (refer to section 3.8. of my book). If this is the case combined with the depth and shape of the preceding correction (ii) it may speak indirectly about the development of upward impulse or A, and not a zigzag.
At the same time the alternate variant doesn’t  rule out that wave (iv) is completed having assumed the shape of a double three.
Note
Given  possible trading plans are  purely informational   purpose only   and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
February 5, 2009
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.


[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 14:45 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 08:53 | 显示全部楼层
The US dollar’s strengthening continues. Possible variants of scenarios of the nearest events are considered in this forecast.
1.  EUR/USD

Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Supposedly the price is developing wave (iv) in the form of an extended correction (refer to section 3.8. of my book). If this is the case combined with the depth and shape of the preceding correction (ii) it may speak of the development of downward impulse or A, and not a zigzag.
At the same time the alternate variant doesn’t rule out that wave (iv) is completed, having assumed the shape of a double three. There remains for us one of these variants.
2. GBP/USD

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.



Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.

Supposedly skewed triangle XX,  is developing as a particular case of an extended correction (refer to section 3.8. of my book). There remains for us to expect the confirmation of its completion.
3.  USD/JPY

Figure 5. Wave counting on 720 min chart. Variant 3dt.



Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dt.

It isn’t ruled out that the price is developing wave (B) in the form of an extended correction (refer to section 3.8. of my book). There remains for us to expect the confirmation of its completion.
4.  USD/CHF

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Supposedly the price os developing wave (iv) in the form of an extended correction (refer to section 3.8. of my book). If this is the case combined with the depth and shape of the preceding correction (ii) it may speak of the development of upward impulse or A, and not a zigzag.
At the same time the alternate variant doesn’t rule out that wave (iv) is completed having assumed the shape of a double three. There remains to expect the confirmation of one of these variants.
Note
Given  possible trading plans are  purely informational   purpose only   and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
February 6, 2009
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.


[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 14:46 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 08:53 | 显示全部楼层
After the completion of the current correction most likely a new round of the US dollar’s strengthening will begin. Possible scenarios of the nearest events are considered in this forecast.
1.  EUR/USD

Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Supposedly the price develops wave (iv) in the form of an extended correction (refer to section 3.8. of my book). If this is the case  combined with the depth and shape of the preceding correction (ii) it may speak indirectly of the development of downward impulse or A, and not a zigzag.
2.  GBP/USD

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.



Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.

Supposedly skewed triangle XX,  is developing as a particular case of an extended correction (refer to section 3.8. of my book). There remains for us to expect the confirmation of its completion.
3.  USD/JPY

Figure 5. Wave counting on 720 min chart. Variant 3dt.



Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dt.

It isn’t ruled out that the price is developing wave (B) in the form of an extended correction (refer to section 3.8. of my book). There remains for us to expect the confirmation of its completion.
4.  USD/CHF

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Supposedly the price is developing wave (iv) in the form of an extended correction (refer to section 3.8. of my book). If this is the case combined with the depth and shape of the preceding correction (ii) it may speak indirectly of the development of upward impulse or A, and not a zigzag.
Note
Given  possible trading plans are  purely informational   purpose only   and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
February 9, 2009
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.



[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 14:50 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 08:54 | 显示全部楼层
Yesterday the currency pairs under consideration moved mixed. EUR and  CHF weakened against the USD but  relatively modest price movement of the pound and yen so far doesn’t allow to speak of the beginning of a new round of the US dollar’s strengthening. Possible scenarios of the nearest events are considered in this forecast.
1.  EUR/USD

Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Yesterday the price broke the geometry of the supposed triangle that may speak either of  the completion of the extended correction or of an increase in its duration. As the local strengthening of the dollar has covered not all the currency pairs under consideration the second variant given in the Figure is more probable.
Thus supposedly the price continues developing wave (iv) in the form of an extended correction of a big size (refer to section 3.8. of my book). If this is the case combined with  the depth and shape of the preceding correction (ii) it may speak indirectly of the development of downward impulse or A, and not a zigzag.
2.  GBP/USD

Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

Supposedly skewed triangle XX,  is developing as a particular case of an extended correction (refer to section 3.8. of my book). There remains for us to expect the confirmation of its completion.
3.  USD/JPY

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dt.

It isn’t ruled out that the price is developing wave (B) in the form of an extended correction (refer to section 3.8. of my book). There remains for us to expect the confirmation of its completion.
4.  USD/CHF

Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Yesterday the price completed the supposed skewed triangle. But as the local strengthening of the dollar has covered not all the currency pairs under consideration most likely the duration of the correction itself is increasing that is reflected in the given Figure.
Thus supposedly the price continues developing wave (iv) in the form of an extended correction (refer to section 3.8. of my book). If this is the case combined with the depth and  shape of the preceding correction (ii) it may speak indirectly of the development of upward impulse or A, and not a zigzag.
Note
Given  possible trading plans are  purely informational   purpose only   and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
February 10, 2009
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.



[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 15:01 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 08:55 | 显示全部楼层
The US dollar and  Japanese yen began to strengthen their positions against the currencies under consideration. Possible scenarios are considered in  this forecast.
1.  EUR/USD

Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Supposedly the price is developing wave (iv) in the form of a horizontal triangle as a particular case of the extended correction (refer to section 3.8. of my book). If this is the case combined with the depth and shape of the preceding correction (ii) it may speak indirectly of the development of downward impulse or A, and not a zigzag.
In order to complete the supposed horizontal triangle (iv) the price has to build up its ending wave e of (iv).
2.  GBP/USD

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.



Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.

Supposedly skewed triangle XX is completed. If this is the case progressive downward price movement will continue in the form of zigzag wave Z.
3.  USD/JPY

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dt.



Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dt.

It isn’t ruled out that the price is developing wave (B) in the form of a horizontal triangle as a particular case of the extended correction (refer to section 3.8. of my book). There remains for us to expect the confirmation of its completion.
4.  USD/CHF

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Supposedly the price is developing wave (iv) in the form of a skewed triangle as a particular case of the extended correction (refer to section 3.8. of my book). If this is the case combined with the depth and the shape of the preceding correction (ii) it may speak indirectly of the development of upward impulse or A, and not a zigzag.
In order to complete the supposed horizontal triangle (iv) the price has to build up its ending wave e of (iv).
Note
Given  possible trading plans are  purely informational   purpose only   and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
February 11, 2009
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.


[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-29 07:44 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 08:55 | 显示全部楼层
The US dollar and  Japanese yen continue strengthening their positions against the currencies under consideration, but  so far it happens within  an almost horizontal correction. Possible scenarios are considered in  this forecast.
1. EUR/USD

Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Supposedly the price is developing wave (iv) in the form of a horizontal triangle as a particular case of the extended correction (refer to section 3.8. of my book). If this is the case combined with the depth and shape of the preceding correction (ii) it may speak indirectly of the development of downward impulse or A, and not a zigzag.
In order to complete the supposed horizontal triangle (iv) the price has to build up its ending wave e of (iv).
2.  GBP/USD

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.



Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.

Supposedly skewed triangle XX is completed. If this is the case progressive downward price movement will continue in the form of zigzag wave Z.
3.  USD/JPY

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dt.



Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dt.

It isn’t ruled out that the price is developing wave (B) in the form of a horizontal triangle as a particular case of the extended correction (refer to section 3.8. of my book). We have to expect the confirmation of its completion.
4.  USD/CHF

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Supposedly the price is developing wave (iv) in the form of a skewed triangle as a particular case of the extended correction (refer to section 3.8. of my book). If this is the case combined with the depth and shape of the preceding correction (ii) it may speak indirectly of the development of upward impulse or A, and not a zigzag.
In order to complete the supposed horizontal triangle (iv) the price has to build up its ending wave e of (iv).
Note
Given  possible trading plans are  purely informational   purpose only   and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
February 12, 2009
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory


[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-29 07:45 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 08:56 | 显示全部楼层
Supposedly the long-lasting correction has entered  its ending stage. Possible scenarios are considered in this forecast.
1.  EUR/USD

Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Supposedly the price is developing wave (iv) in the form of a horizontal triangle as a particular case of the extended correction (refer to section 3.8. of my book). If this is the case combined with the depth and shape of the preceding correction (ii) it may speak indirectly of the development of downward impulse or A, and not a zigzag.
In order to complete the supposed horizontal triangle (iv) the price has to build up its ending wave e of (iv).
2.  GBP/USD

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.



Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.

Supposedly skewed triangle XX is completed. If this is the case progressive downward price movement will continue in the form of zigzag wave Z after the completion of a short- term correction (ii) of [a] of Z.
3.  USD/JPY

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dt.



Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dt.

It isn’t ruled out that the price is developing wave (B) in the form of a horizontal triangle as a particular case of the extended correction (refer to section 3.8. of my book). We have to expect the confirmation of  its completion.
4.  USD/CHF

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dt.

Supposedly the price is developing wave (iv) in the form of a skewed triangle as a particular case of the extended correction (refer to section 3.8. of my book). If this is the case combined with the depth and shape of the preceding correction (ii) it may speak indirectly of the development of upward impulse or A, and not a zigzag.
In order to complete the supposed horizontal triangle (iv) the price has to build up its ending wave e of (iv).
Note
Given  possible trading plans are  purely informational   purpose only   and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
February 13, 2009
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.


[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-29 10:54 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 08:57 | 显示全部楼层
Supposedly the long-standing correction has entered  its ending stage. Possible scenarios are considered in  this forecast.
1.  EUR/USD

Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Supposedly the price is developing wave (iv) in the form of a horizontal triangle as a particular case of the extended correction (refer to section 3.8. of my book). If this is the case combined with  the depth and shape of the preceding correction (ii) it may speak indirectly of the developmentof downward impulse or A, and not a zigzag.
In order to complete the supposed horizontal triangle (iv) the price has to build up its ending wave e of (iv), but one of the variants of counting allows that running triangle (iv) has already completed.
2.  GBP/USD

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.



Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.

Supposedly corrective wave (ii) of [a] of Z is completed. If this is the case progressive downward price movement will continue in the form of a zigzag structure.
3.  USD/JPY

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dt.



Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dt.

It isn’t ruled out that the price is developing wave (B) in the form of a horizontal triangle as a particular case of the extended correction (refer to section 3.8. of my book). There remains for us to expect the confirmation of its completion.
4.  USD/CHF

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Supposedly the price is developing wave (iv) in the form of a skewed triangle as a particular case of the extended correction (refer to section 3.8. of my book). If this is the case combined with the depth and shape of the preceding correction(ii) it may speak indirectly of the development of upward impulse or A, and not a zigzag.
In order to complete the supposed horizontal triangle (iv) the price ahs to build up its ending wave e of (iv) , but one of the variants of counting allows that skewed triangle (iv) is completed.
Note
Given  possible trading plans are  purely informational   purpose only   and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
February 16, 2009
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.



[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-29 11:04 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 08:58 | 显示全部楼层
Yesterday the euro broke the geometry of the supposed horizontal triangle. It may mean either the beginning of a new round of the US dollar’s strengthening or increasing of the duration of the extended correction. That’s why without  canceling yesterday’s variants of counting (refer to Daily-160209), we will consider today possible and quite real alternates.
1. EUR/USD

Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.

The price may be developing wave (iv) in the form of a skewed triangle as a particular case of the extended correction (refer to section 3.8. of my book). If this is the case combined with the depth and shape of the preceding correction (ii) it may speak indirectly of the development of downward impulse or A, and not a zigzag.
In order to complete the supposed horizontal triangle (iv) the price has to build up its ending wave e of (iv).
2.  GBP/USD

Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

Possibly corrective wave (ii) of [a] of Z is assuming the shape of a flat or a double three. If this is the case progressive downward price movement will continue in the form of a zigzag construction after the completion of wave (ii).
3.  USD/JPY

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dt.

It isn’t ruled out that the price is developing wave (B) in the form of a horizontal triangle as a particular case of the extended correction (refer to section 3.8. of my book) or a double/triple three. There remains for us to expect the confirmation of its completion.
4.  USD/CHF

Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.

the price might be developing wave (iv) in the form of a skewed triangle as a particular triangle as a particular case of the extended correction (refer to section 3.8. of my book). If this is the case combined with the depth and shape of the preceding correction (ii) it may speak indirectly of the development of upward impulse or A, and not a zigzag.
To complete the supposed horizontal triangle (iv) the price has to build up its ending wave e of (iv).
Note
Given  possible trading plans are  purely informational   purpose only   and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
February 17, 2009
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.



[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-29 11:07 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 09:00 | 显示全部楼层
It isn’t  ruled out that the current large correction continues developing. Variants of possible price movement of the currency pairs under consideration are given in this forecast.
1.  EUR/USD

Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dz.

The price might be developing wave (iv) in the form of a skewed triangle as a particular case of the extended correction (refer to section 3.8. of my book). If this is the case combined with  the depth and shape of the preceding correction (ii) it may speak indirectly of the development of downward impulse or A, and not a zigzag.
In order to complete the supposed skewed triangle (iv) the price has to build up its ending wave e of (iv).
2.  GBP/USD

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.



Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.

Corrective wave (ii) of [a] of Z might be assuming the shape of a flat or a double three. If this is the case progressive downward price movement will continue in the form of a zigzag construction after the completion of wave (ii).
3.  USD/JPY

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dt.



Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dt.



Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dt.

It isn’t ruled out that the price is developing wave (B) in the form of a horizontal triangle or a triple three as a particular case of the extended correction (refer to section 3.8. of my book).
But so far  the variant of developing of wave (B) in the form of a flat (alternation of waves  — Simple-Complicated-Most Complicated; refer to table 4-2 of my book) or a double three isn’t ruled out. There remains for us to expect the confirmation of its completion.
4.  USD/CHF

Figure 8. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure 9. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dz.

The price might be developing wave (iv) in the form of a running (or barrier) triangle as a particular case of the extended correction (refer to section 3.8. of my book). If this is the case combined with the depth and shape of the preceding correction (ii) it may speak indirectly of the development of upward impulse or A, and not a zigzag.
In order to complete the supposed horizontal triangle (iv) the price has to build up its ending wave e of (iv).
Note
Given  possible trading plans are  purely informational   purpose only   and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
February 18, 2009
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.


[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-29 11:10 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 09:01 | 显示全部楼层
Wave counting doesn’t  rule out the trend reversal in the near term. Possible variants are given in this forecast.
1.  EUR/USD

Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.

The trend is ripe of upward reversal. A pair of possible variants of the completion of the current trend are shown in the Figures above.
2.  GBP/USD

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.



Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

Corrective wave (ii) of [a] of Z might be assuming the shape of a flat or a double three. If this is the case progressive downward price movement will continue in  the form of a zigzag construction after the completion of wave (ii).
3.  USD/JPY

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dt.



Figure 6. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dt.

The price approaches the level of the top of wave A of (B), which might serve as the area of the trend reversal. A pair of possible variants of the completion of the current trend are shown in the Figures above.
4.  USD/CHF

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.

The trend is ripe of downward reversal. A pair of variants of the completion of the current trend are shown in the Figures above.
Note
Given  possible trading plans are  purely informational   purpose only   and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
February 19, 2009
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory


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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 09:01 | 显示全部楼层
Dear wavers!
In connection with my decision to quit Alpari the next week will end the five year cycle of my publications. To avoid false rumours I’d like to inform you that I’m quitting at my own wish, further fate of the column «Wave Analysis» on the website of Alpari is unknown for me.
I’m ready to discuss serious job offers.
Best regards,
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com

Wave counting has little changes for the last day and doesn’t rule out a trend reversal in the near term. Possible variants are given in this forecast.
1.  EUR/USD

Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.

The price trend is ripe of upward reversal. A pair of possible variants of the completion of the current trend are shown in the Figures above.
2.  GBP/USD

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.



Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

Corrective wave (ii) of [a] of Z might be assuming the shape of a flat or a double three. If this is the case progressive downward price movement will continue in the form of a zigzag construction after the completion of wave (ii).
3.  USD/JPY

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dt.



Figure 6. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dt.

The price approaches the level of the top of wave A of (B), that might serve as the area of the price trend reversal. A pair of possible variants of the completion of the current trend are shown in the Figures.
4.  USD/CHF

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure 8. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.

The trend is ripe for downward reversal. A pair of variants of the completion of the current trend are shown in the Figures.
Note
Given  possible trading plans are  purely informational   purpose only   and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
February 20, 2009
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.



[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-29 11:35 编辑 ]

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 09:02 | 显示全部楼层
Wave counting doesn’t rule out that the reversal of the local trend has already taken place. However the alternate scenario isn’t cancelled yet and has the right to exist. There remains for us to expect the confirmation of one of the variants.
1.  EUR/USD

Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.

The expected upward trend reversal has taken place. But it isn’t clear how deep the new trend will continue its movement. A pair of possible scenarios is shown in the Figures above.
2.  GBP/USD

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

Corrective wave (ii) of [a] of Z might be assuming the shape of flat or a double three. If the supposition is true progressive downward price movement will continue in the form of a zigzag construction after the completion of wave (ii).
3.  USD/JPY

Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dt.



Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dt.

The expected downward trend reversal has taken place. However so far it isn’t clear how deep the new trend will continue its movement. A pair of possible scenarios are shown in the Figures.
4.  USD/CHF

Figure 6. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.

The expected downward trend reversal has taken place. But so far it isn’t clear how deep the new trend will continue its movement. A pair of possible scenarios are shown in the Figures.
Note
Given  possible trading plans are  purely informational   purpose only   and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
February 23, 2009
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.



[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-29 11:36 编辑 ]

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 09:03 | 显示全部楼层
Yesterday’s strengthening of the US dollar added intrigue to the confrontation of two most probable scenarios. There remains for us to expect the confirmation of one of the variants.
1.  EUR/USD

Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Critical and confirmatory levels for both variants have been marked but the price may fluctuate between them for a long time giving alternately a small advantage to one of the variants.
2.  GBP/USD

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

Corrective wave (ii) of [a] of Z may be assuming the shape of a flat (or a double three). If this is the case progressive downward price movement will continue in the form of a zigzag construction after the completion of wave (ii).
3. USD/JPY

Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dt.



Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dt.

Yesterday the price broke the critical level having redrawn the top of the supposed wave C of (B). But this only increases chances of downward reversal of the price in the near term. A pair of possible scenarios is shown in the Figures above.
4.  USD/CHF

Figure 6. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Critical and confirmatory levels for both variants have been marked but  the price may fluctuate between them for a long time giving alternately a small advantage to one of the variants.
Note
Given  possible trading plans are  purely informational   purpose only   and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
February 24, 2009
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.


[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-29 11:38 编辑 ]

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 09:03 | 显示全部楼层
The wave counting of the European currencies almost hasn’t changed – the confrontation of two most probable scenarios continues. But the yen started to lose grounds, having marked new borders.
1. EUR/USD

Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.

The price is fluctuating between the critical and confirmatory levels giving alternately a small advantage to one of the variants.
2.  GBP/USD

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

Corrective wave (ii) of [a] of Z might be assuming the shape of a flat with a diagonal triangle as the ending wave (or a double three). If this is the case progressive downward price movement will continue in the form of a zigzag construction after the completion of wave (ii).
3.  USD/JPY

Figure 4. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3dt.



Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dt.



Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dt.

The yen managed to overcome the 95, level that corresponds to the top of the supposed wave A of (B), and now up to the 100 mark, there is a stockade of resistance level before it — 97, 98, 99 and 100, on each of which it may complete its surge.
As the supposed wave (c) of [v] of C of (B), having broken the 95, level started to develop an upward extension we can’t speak of an immediate downward trend reversal — extension must be fully completed with waves. If the correlation of waves of the supposed impulse (c) of [v] of C of (B) preserves its ending should be expected in the area of the 98..99 marks.
4.  USD/CHF

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure 8. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.

The price fluctuates between the critical and confirmatory levels giving alternately a small advantage to one of the variants.
Note
Given  possible trading plans are  purely informational   purpose only   and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
February 25, 2009
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.


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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 09:04 | 显示全部楼层
The wave counting of the European currencies almost hasn’t changed — the confrontation of two most probable scenarios continues. While the pair USD/JPY А is now facing a choice – either to continue upward extension or to reverse down at once.
1.  EUR/USD

Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.

The price continues to fluctuate between the critical and confirmatory levels giving alternately a small advantage to one of the variants. On some grounds at the moment the second scenario prevails (Figure 2).
2.  GBP/USD

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

Wave (ii) of [a] of Z might be completed in the form of a flat. If this is the case progressive downward price movement will continue in the form of a zigzag construction. The nearest critical level in this case may be the ending of wave (ii).
3.  USD/JPY

Figure 4. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3dt.



Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dt.



Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dt.



Figure 7. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dt, extension.

The price has reached the lower border of the projected area (refer to Daily-25.02.09), having almost completed to build wave v of (c) of [v]. And now it has only two most probable scenarios: either to reverse down at once or to continue developing wave v of (c) of [v] in the form of upward extension [1]-[2]-[3]-[4]-[5]. Taking into consideration vigor with which the price rushes up the second variant seems to be preferable.
In the first case the critical level will be the ending of wave v of (c) of [v], the confirmatory level will be the ending of wave iv of (c) of [v].
In the second case, vice versa the critical level will be the ending of wave iv of (c) of [v], and the confirmatory level will be the ending of wave [1] of v of (c) of [v] (but only after wave [2] of v of (c) of [v]!) is developed.
4.  USD/CHF

Figure 8. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure 9. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.

The price continues to move between the critical and the confirmatory levels giving alternately a small advantage to one of the variants. On some grounds at the moment the second scenario is preferred (Figure 9).
Note
Given  possible trading plans are  purely informational   purpose only   and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
February 26, 2009
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.



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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 09:05 | 显示全部楼层
With this forecast I’m completing my five year cycle of publications on the theory and practice of wave analysis on the website of the Company Group Alpari. At parting I would like to express my sincere gratitude to the Founders:
PETROV Gleb — the founder of the company and the first President of Alpari,
DASHIN Andrey — the President of Alpari,
and, especially to, VEDIKHIN Andrey — the Vice-President of  Alpari
for their support in creating the Wave Analysis column, in publishing the book «Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of FOREX» and the brochure «Brief course on Elliott Wave Principle».
Best regards,
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com

Introduction
The wave counting of the European currencies almost hasn’t changed— the confrontation of two most probable scenarios continues. The pair USD/JPY is now facing a choice – either to continue the trend that has begun or to keep developing the upward extension.
1.  EUR/USD







The price continues to fluctuate between the critical and the confirmatory levels giving alternately a small advantage to one of the variants. On some grounds at the moment the second scenario prevails (Figure 2).
2.  GBP/USD



Wave (ii) of [a] of Z might be completed in the form of a flat. If this is the case progressive downward price movement will continue in the form of a zigzag construction. The nearest critical level in this case may be the ending of wave (ii).
3.  USD/JPY











The price has reached the projected area and approached its upper border (refer to Daily-25.02.09), having completed the development of wave v of (c) of [v] and having market the downward trend reversal. It still has two most probable scenarios: to continue the downtrend or to keep developing wave v of (c) of [v] in the form of an upward extension [1]-[2]-[3]-[4]-[5].
But taking into consideration the completeness of impulse (c) of [v] with the main waves and their correct mutual proportions and also approximate equality of the legs of zigzag (a)-(b)-(c) of [v], scenario with a reversal and the beginning of downtrend seems to me more probable at the moment. At the same time the alternate with an extension in wave v of (c) of [v] still remains.
I think that critical and confirmatory levels for each of scenarios plotted on the charts will help to make the right choice of one of the variant in due time.
4.  USD/CHF







The price continues to move between the critical and the confirmatory levels giving alternately a small advantage to one of the variants. On some grounds at the moment the second scenario prevails (Figure 8).
Note
Given  possible trading plans are  purely informational   purpose only   and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
February 27, 2009
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.


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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 09:09 | 显示全部楼层
February 2009January 2009December 2008November 2008October 2008September 2008August 2008July 2008June 2008May 2008April 2008March 2008February 2008January 2008December 2007November 2007October 2007September 2007August 2007July 2007June 2007May 2007April 2007March 2007February 2007January 2007December 2006November 2006October 2006September 2006August 2006July 2006June 2006May 2006April 2006March 2006February 2006January 2006December 2005November 2005
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 09:12 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction

Price is expected to prepare to test strong resistance to form the final movement in favor of the dollar. Possible scenarios are described in this forecast.

This month interest rates may be changed in some backbone countries that may have impact on currency pair movement (refer to Table 1 below).
Country Interest Rate Current Value Previous Change Next Meeting
USA Federal Funds 3.75% September, 20. 2005 (+0.25%) November, 1. 2005
USA Discount Rate 4.75% September, 20. 2005 (+0.25%) November, 1. 2005
Eurozone Refinancing Tender 2.00% June, 5. 2003 (-0.5%) November, 3. 2005
Eurozone Deposit Rate 1.00% June, 5. 2003 (-0.5%) November, 3. 2005
Eurozone Marginal Lending Rate 3.00% June, 5. 2003 (-0.5%) November, 3. 2005
Great Britain Repo Rate 4.50% August, 4. 2005 (-0.25%) November, 9-10. 2005
Switzerland 3 month LIBOR Range 0.25% - 1.25% September, 16. 2004 (+0.25%) December, 15. 2005
Canada Overnight Rate Target 3.0% October, 18. 2005 (+0.25%) December, 6. 2005
Canada Bank Rate 3.25% October, 18. 2005 (+0.25%) December, 6. 2005
Australia Cash Rate 5.50% March, 1. 2005 (+0.25%) November, 1. 2005
Japan Discount Rate 0.10% September, 18. 2001 (-0.15%) October, 31. 2005
Japan Overnight Call Rate Target 0.00% September, 19. 2001 (-0.25%) October, 31. 2005

Table 1.

Note

It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show the probable price movements. This report is subject to change and reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release.

Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides.



Reference

Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
October, 29, 2005
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.








Current wave analysis.

Global downtrend is expected to be completed (the [A] wave of a several-months zigzag) and correction , wave is supposed to be forming now. It may assume the shape of an upward triple zigzag.

Currently CHF does not manage to test strong resistance at 1.3000-1.3050 (Figures C2 and C3 below). This level is expected to be tested in November-December and new targets will be placed. For more information refer to figures E2 and E3 below.



Figure C2. Wave analysis on the daily chart. The main scenario.

According to the main variant, shown in Figure C2, correction (the wave) is expected to be completed. In this case in November upward impulse movement till completion of projected A or W zigzag may be expected. The and (Х) waves highs are critical levels.

At the same time projected (с) of diagonal triangle, as final wave pattern, can be a triple zigzag, so further correction development is possible (alternative variant is shown in Figure C3, below).


Figure C3. Wave analysis on the daily chart. Alternative scenario.

As an alternative to the main variant the wave may assume a shape of a horizontal triangle or other extended correction. The (Х) wave high is the critical level.

For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.


Reference

* …“Imaginary Skewer”...
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
October, 29, 2005
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-29 07:43 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 09:13 | 显示全部楼层
Current wave analysis.

As there is no single synthesized chart on euro before 1998, the mirror image of CHF is used here as approximate scenario.

Global uptrend is expected to be completed (the [A] wave of a several-months zigzag) and correction wave is supposed to be forming now. It may assume the shape of a triple zigzag.

Currently the euro does not manage to test strong resistance at 1.1900-1.1850 (Figures E2 and E3 below). This level is expected to be tested in November-December and new targets will be placed. For more information refer to figures E2 and E3 below.



Figures E2. Wave analysis on the daily chart. The main scenario.

According to the main variant, shown in Figure E2, correction (the wave) is expected to be completed. In this case in November downward impulse movement till completion of projected A or W zigzag may be expected. The and (Х) waves highs are critical levels.

At the same time projected (с) of diagonal triangle, as final wave pattern, can be a triple zigzag, so further correction development is possible (alternative variant is shown in Figure E3, below).



Figure E3. Wave analysis on the daily chart. Alternative variant.

As an alternative to the main variant the wave may assume a shape of a horizontal triangle or other extended correction. The (Х) wave high is the critical level.

For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.


Reference

* …“Imaginary Skewer”...

Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
October, 29, 2005
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-29 07:42 编辑 ]

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