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一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 11:03 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction

As it was supposed in Annual-06, if completed corrective three pattern is not formed by November 2006, USD decline may continue till May 2007. That is why at the end of October in article Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007 current wave picture was analysed, possible scenarios of further movement of the main currency pairs were analysed. The following forecasts were based on this article.

The results of the previous forecast and most probable variants of price movement in December are described in the respective sections.

Note

This report reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release. This report is subject to change, it will be reflected in daily analyses or in additional articles in Wave analysis.

It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show probable price movements.


Reference


Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
December 3, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.




Introduction

USD fall, supposed in Monthly-1106, took place in accordance with the forecast. For the result refer to Figure C1.



Figure C1. Final daily chart of the WA, November, 2006.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of CHF last month movement is given in the chart.


Current variant of wave counting

For survey wave counting of CHF in large time frames refer to:




Figure C2. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Within the last several weeks of November almost completed downward impulse formed, which may be the third wave (iii) of the first leg [a] of the final zigzag Z (refer to Figures C2 and C3). Thus, downward movement of the last month and a half may be presented in the shape of the uncompleted impulse [a].

If the supposition is correct, confirmation of wave (iii) completion, which still may keep forming, should be expected, as well as forming of the fourth wave (iv). That is corrective structure will form in favor of USD.



Figure C3. Wave counting on the weekly chart.

In this case further price movement may finish supposed triple zigzag as it is shown in Figure C3.



Figure C4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Alternate variant.

Though downtrend of the last month and a half may be presented in the shape of almost completed zigzag Z.



Figure C5. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Alternate variant.

If price chooses this scenario of further movement, reversal of the long-term trend in favor of the dollar will start forming in the nearest future. That is impulse structure may form in favor of the dollar.

For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.



Reference

Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
December 3, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational


Introduction

USD fall, supposed in Monthly-1106, took place in accordance with the forecast. For the result refer to Figure E1.



Figure E1. Final daily chart of the WA, November, 2006.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of EUR last month movement is given in the chart.


Current variant of wave counting

For survey wave counting of EUR in large time frames refer to:



Figure E2. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Within the last several weeks of November almost completed upward impulse formed, which may be the third wave (iii) of the first leg [a] of the final zigzag Z (refer to Figures E2 and E3). Thus, upward movement of the last month and a half may be presented in the shape of the uncompleted impulse [a].

If the supposition is correct, confirmation of wave (iii) completion, which still may keep forming, should be expected in December, as well as forming of the fourth wave (iv). That is corrective structure will form in favor of USD.



Figure E3. Wave counting on the weekly chart.

In this case further price movement may finish supposed triple zigzag as it is shown in Figure E3.



Figure E4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Alternate variant.

Though uptrend of the last month and a half may be presented in the shape of almost completed zigzag Z.



Figure E5. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Alternate variant.

If price chooses this scenario of further movement, reversal of the long-term trend in favor of the dollar will start forming in the nearest future. That is impulse structure may form in favor of the dollar.

For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.


Reference

Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
December 3, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya


[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 15:46 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 11:04 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction

USD fall, supposed in Monthly-1106, took place in accordance with the forecast. For the result refer to Figure G1.



Figure G1. Final daily chart of the WA, November, 2006.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of GBP last month movement is given in the chart.


Current variant of wave counting

For survey wave counting of GBP in large time frames refer to:



Figure G2. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Within the last several weeks of November almost completed upward impulse formed, which may be the third wave (iii) of the first leg [a] of the final zigzag Z (refer to Figures G2 and G3). Thus, upward movement of the last month and a half may be presented in the shape of the uncompleted impulse [a].

If the supposition is correct, confirmation of wave (iii) completion, which still may keep forming, should be expected in December, as well as forming of the fourth wave (iv). That is corrective structure will form in favor of USD.



Figure G3. Wave counting on the weekly chart.

In this case further price movement may finish supposed triple zigzag as it is shown in Figure G3. There are several variants of this upward wave structure marking, on the whole they do not contradict each other.



Figure G4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Alternate variant.

Though uptrend of the last month and a half may be presented in the shape of almost completed zigzag Z.



Figure G5. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Alternate variant.

If price chooses this scenario of further movement, reversal of the long-term trend in favor of the dollar will start forming in the nearest future. That is impulse structure may form in favor of the dollar.

For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.


Reference


Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
December 3, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.




Introduction

USD fall, supposed in Monthly-1106, took place in accordance with the forecast. For the result refer to Figure Y1.



Figure Y1. Final daily chart of the WA, November, 2006.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of JPY last month movement is given in the chart.


Current variant of wave counting

For survey wave counting of JPY in large time frames refer to:



Figure Y2. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Within the last several weeks of November almost completed downward impulse formed, which may be the final wave (v) of the first impulse of the final wave C of flat (B) (refer to Figures Y2 and Y3). Thus, downward movement of the last month and a half may be presented in the shape of almost completed impulse .

If the supposition is correct, confirmation of wave completion, which still may keep extending, should be expected in December, as well as forming of the second wave [ii]. That is corrective structure will form in favor of USD.



Figure Y3. Wave counting on the weekly chart.

In this case further price movement may finish supposed flat as it is shown in Figure Y3.



Figure Y4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Alternate variant.

Though the last downward movement may complete the corrective pattern against the dollar, signifying beginning of the forthcoming rally in favor of USD.



Figure Y5. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Alternate variant.

The second wave 2 of upward final impulse (C) of [E] of IV, which has assumed the shape of the running flat, may be almost completed (or completed, confirmation is expected).



Figure Y6. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Alternate variant.

Though the same downward structure may be presented in the shape of the double zigzag, with no violation of the rules.



Figure Y7. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Alternate variant.

In this case it is logical to expect either transformation of the downward wave into the diagonal triangle and further forming according to the scenario in Figure Y5 (grey lines) or forming of upward wave (C) of [E] of IV in the shape of the diagonal triangle (red line).

For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.


Reference


Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
December 3, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.



[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 15:49 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 11:18 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction

In Annual-07 it was supposed that

« confirmation of completion of more than annual prices movement against the dollar (that is the fact of completion of wave (B) or (X) of for the main European currencies) is the main event expected in 2007 from the point of view prices movement forecasting.»

I don't think it will be confirmed in January, however the wave structure, formed this month, can suggest the preferred scenario of further prices movement of the pairs under consideration.

Most probable variants of prices movement for January 2007 are given in the correspondent articles.

Note

This report reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release. This report is subject to change, it will be reflected in daily analyses or in additional articles in Wave analysis.

It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show probable price movements.


Reference


Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
January 14, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.



Introduction

For the results for December 2006 refer to article Results for December


Current variant of wave counting

For survey wave counting of CHF in large time frames refer to:




Figure C1. Wave counting on the daily chart. The main variant.

Downward wave (B)? keeps forming in accordance with the main variant. I will keep to this scenario until its completion is confirmed.

Upward zigzag (a)-(b)-(c) with approximately equal legs and completed wave structure has formed from December 2006. If supposed wave (c) of [x] does not start to extend, its current ending may be the ending of the whole correction [x] of Y or its first main sub-wave. In both cases according to the main scenario the nearest most probable movement is downward.

Supposed wave [w] of Y ending is the confirmatory level. If the price breaks the lower edge of upward trend channel and falls below the confirmatory level at 1.1879 (1.2121) the accepted scenario will be confirmed dramatically.

Supposed wave X of (B) ending is the critical level of the main scenario. If price rises above 1.2768 one of the alternate variants will take effect (refer to Figure C2).



Figure C2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Alternate variant.

According to the alternate variant uptrend from December 2006 may be treated as the first waves of upward wave (C) or (Y). They may be either completed zigzag W or the first three waves of uncompleted impulse 1.

Ending of supposed wave XX of (B) or (X) at 1.2768 is the confirmatory level. 1.2121 and 1.1879 are the critical levels.

For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.



Reference

Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
January 14, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd



Introduction

For the results for December 2006 refer to article Results for December


Current variant of wave counting

For survey wave counting of EUR in large time frames refer to:




Figure E1. Wave counting on the daily chart. The main variant.

Upward wave (B)? keeps forming in accordance with the main variant. I will keep to this scenario until its completion is confirmed.

Downward zigzag (a)-(b)-(c) with approximately equal legs ((c)=~(a)*1.27) and completed wave structure has formed from December 2006. If supposed wave (c) of [x] does not start to extend, its current ending may be the ending of the whole correction [x] of Y or its first main sub-wave. In both cases according to the main scenario the nearest most probable movement is upward.

Supposed wave [w] of Y ending is the confirmatory level. If the price breaks the upper edge of downward trend channel and rises above the confirmatory level at 1.3361 (1.3294) the accepted scenario will be confirmed dramatically.

Supposed wave X of (B) ending is the critical level of the main scenario. If price falls below 1.2482 one of the alternate variants will take effect (refer to Figure E2).



Figure E2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Alternate variant.

According to the alternate variant downtrend from December 2006 may be treated as the first waves of downward wave (C) or (Y). They may be either completed zigzag W or the first three waves of uncompleted impulse 1.

Ending of supposed wave XX of (B) or (X) at 1.2482 is the confirmatory level. 1.3294 and 1.3361 are the critical levels.

For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.



Reference

Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
January 14, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Lt

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 15:50 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 11:30 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction

For the results for December 2006 refer to article Results for December


Current variant of wave counting

For survey wave counting of GBP in large time frames refer to:



Figure G1. Wave counting on the daily chart. The main variant.

Upward wave (B)? keeps forming in accordance with the main variant. I will keep to this scenario until its completion is confirmed.

Downward zigzag (a)-(b)-(c) with approximately equal legs ((c)=~(a)*1.27) and completed wave structure has formed from December 2006. If supposed wave (c) of [x] does not start to extend, its current ending may be the ending of the whole correction [x] of Y or its first main sub-wave. In both cases according to the main scenario the nearest most probable movement is upward.

Supposed wave [w] of Y ending is the confirmatory level. If the price breaks the upper edge of downward trend channel and rises above the confirmatory level at 1.9845 (1.9749) the accepted scenario will be confirmed dramatically.

Supposed wave X of (B) ending is the critical level of the main scenario. If price falls below 1.8515 one of the alternate variants will take effect (refer to Figure G2).



Figure G2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Alternate variant.

According to the alternate variant downtrend from December 2006 may be treated as the first waves of downward wave (C) or (Y). They may be either completed zigzag W or the first three waves of uncompleted impulse 1.

Ending of supposed wave XX of (B) or (X) at 1.8515 is the confirmatory level. 1.9749 and 1.9845 are the critical levels.

For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.


Reference


Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
January 14, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd


Introduction

For the results for December 2006 refer to article Results for December


Current variant of wave counting

For survey wave counting of JPY in large time frames refer to:




Figure Y1. Wave counting on the daily chart. The main variant.

Corrective wave (B)? keeps forming in accordance with the main variant. Wave B of (B) is supposed to have assumed the shape of the ordinary zigzag, though, unfortunately, its completion is not confirmed yet.

Price fall below the confirmatory level at 114.42 is the confirmation of this scenario. The pattern, which shape is being assumed by supposed wave (B), may be specified with the help of downtrend wave structure.

There is no clear-cut critical level in the main variant. Though if uptrend continues in the impulsive mode, one of the alternate scenarios may take effect (refer to Figure Y2).



Figure Y2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Alternate variant.

According to the alternate variant uptrend from May 2006 may be treated as upward impulse or diagonal triangle (С) of [E]. 114.42 is the critical level.

For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.



Reference

Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
January 14, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 15:52 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 11:37 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction

In Annual-07 it was supposed that

« confirmation of completion of more than annual prices movement against the dollar (that is the fact of completion of wave (B) or (X) of for the main European currencies) is the main event expected in 2007 from the point of view prices movement forecasting.»

Unfortunately, neither the main variant nor the alternate one has been confirmed. The wave picture can be cleared in February.

Most probable variants of prices movement for February 2007 are given in the correspondent articles.

Note

This report reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release. This report is subject to change, it will be reflected in daily analyses or in additional articles in Wave analysis.

It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show probable price movements.


Reference


Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
February 4, 2007
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd



Introduction

It is more probable that price movement, supposed in Monthly-0107, was forming in accordance with the alternate variant. For the results refer to Figure C1.



Figure C1. Final daily chart of the forecast for January, 2007.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of CHF movement three weeks ago is given in the chart.


Current variant of wave counting

For survey wave counting of CHF in large time frames refer to:



Figure C2. Wave counting on the daily chart. The main variant.

According to the main variant downward wave (B)? or (X) keeps forming. I will keep to this scenario until its completion is confirmed.

Upward double zigzag (w)-(x)-(y) may have formed after December 2006. If the critical level is not broken, its current ending may be the ending of the whole correction [x] of Y or only its first main sub-wave. In both cases according to the main scenario the nearest most probable movement is downward.

Ending of supposed wave [w] of Y is the confirmatory level. Breakout of the lower edge of the upward trend channel and price fall below the confirmatory level 1.1879 (1.2121) will confirm the accepted scenario vividly.

Supposed wave X of (B) ending is the critical level of the main scenario. If price rises above 1.2768 one of the alternate variants will take effect (refer to Figure C3).

Breakout of 1.2563 critical level does not mean theoretically that the main variant becomes invalid, as it may trigger wave [x] forming in the shape of some zigzag structure. Though in this case chances of the alternate scenarios increase greatly (refer to Figure C3).



Figure C3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Alternate variant.

According to the alternate variant uptrend from December 2006 may be treated as the first waves (C) or (Y). For example, they can be the first waves of impulse 1 or A.

Ending of supposed wave XX of (B) or (X) at 1.2768 is the confirmatory level. 1.1879 is the critical level.

In case the supposition is correct, correction 2 or B can complete above the key pulse point on March 9, 2007 around strong resistance at 1.22.

For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.


Reference


Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
February 4, 2007
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.



Introduction

It is more probable that price movement, supposed in Monthly-0107 was forming in accordance with the alternate variant. For the results refer to Figure E1.



Figure E1. Final daily chart of the forecast for January, 2007.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of EUR movement three weeks ago is given in the chart.


Current variant of wave counting

For survey wave counting of EUR in large time frames refer to:




Figure E2. Wave counting on the daily chart. The main variant.

According to the main variant upward wave (B)? or (X) keeps forming. I will keep to this scenario until its completion is confirmed.

Downward double zigzag (w)-(x)-(y) may have formed after December 2006. If the critical level is not broken, its current ending may be the ending of the whole correction [x] of Y or only its first main sub-wave. In both cases according to the main scenario the nearest most probable movement is upward.

Ending of supposed wave [w] of Y is the confirmatory level. Breakout of the upper edge of the downward trend channel and price rise above the confirmatory level 1.3361 (1.3294) will confirm the accepted scenario vividly.

Supposed wave X of (B) ending is the critical level of the main scenario. If price falls below 1.2482 one of the alternate variants will take effect (refer to Figure E3).

Breakout of 1.2877 critical level does not mean theoretically that the main variant becomes invalid, as it may trigger wave [x] forming in the shape of some zigzag structure. Though in this case chances of the alternate scenarios increase greatly (refer to Figure E3).



Figure E3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Alternate variant.

According to the alternate variant downtrend from December 2006 may be treated as the first waves (C) or (Y). For example, they can be the first waves of impulse 1 or A.

Ending of supposed wave XX of (B) or (X) at 1.2482 is the confirmatory level. 1.3361 is the critical level.

In case the supposition is correct, correction 2 or B can complete above the key pulse point on March 9, 2007 around strong resistance at 1.32.

For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.



Reference

Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
February 4, 2007
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 15:56 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 11:38 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction

Price movement, supposed in Monthly-0107 was forming in accordance with the forecast. For the results refer to Figure G1.



Figure G1. Final daily chart of the forecast for January, 2007.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of GBP movement three weeks ago is given in the chart.


Current variant of wave counting

For survey wave counting of GBP in large time frames refer to:



Figure G2. Wave counting on the daily chart. The main variant.

According to the main variant upward wave (B)? or (X) keeps forming. I will keep to this scenario until its completion is confirmed.

Some horizontal correction has been forming from December 2006, which has been assuming the shape of the double three. It is more probable that once it is completed price will keep rising.

The highest figure of the current correction (wave (x) of [x] of Y ending) is the confirmatory level. Price rise above the confirmatory level at 1.9913 will confirm the accepted scenario vividly.

Supposed wave X of (B) ending is the critical level of the main scenario. If price falls below 1.8515 one of the alternate variants will take effect (refer to Figure G3).



Figure G3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Alternate variant.

According to the alternate scenario wave (B) or (X) completed at the end of January. Further downtrend can be treated as the first waves (C) or (Y). They can be the first waves 1 or A.

Ending of supposed wave XX of (B) or (X) at 1.8515 (1.9261) is the confirmatory level. 1.9913 is the critical level.

For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.


Reference


Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
February 4, 2007
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.




Introduction

Upward impulse, supposed in Monthly-0107, kept forming, having formed the high a bit above the expected value. Thus, apprehension that wave B of (B) is uncompleted, is confirmed. For the result refer to Figure Y1.



Figure Y1. Final daily chart of the forecast for January, 2007.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of JPY movement three weeks ago is given in the chart.


Current variant of wave counting

For survey wave counting of JPY in large time frames refer to:



Figure Y2. Wave counting on the daily chart. The main variant.

According to the main variant corrective wave (B)? keeps forming. Wave B of (B) is supposed to have assumed the shape of the simple zigzag.

Price breakout of the lower edge of the trend channel and its fall below the confirmatory level at 114.42 will confirm the chosen scenario. Wave structure of the downtrend can help to specify, which shape supposed wave (B) is assuming.

Ending of supposed wave B of (B) is the critical level of the main variant. Price rise above 122.16 does not mean theoretically that the main variant becomes invalid, as it may trigger wave [c] of B forming in the shape of some impulse, different by its configuration. Though in this case chances of the alternate scenarios increase greatly (refer to Figure Y3).



Figure Y3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Alternate variant.

According to the alternate variant uptrend from May 2006 can be treated as an upward impulse or diagonal triangle (C) of [E]. 114.42 is the critical level.

In case the supposition is correct, correction [ii] can complete above the key pulse point on March 9, 2007 around strong resistance at 118.

For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.


Reference


Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
February 4, 2007
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 15:57 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 11:55 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
In Annual-07 it was supposed that
«…confirmation of completion of more than annual prices movement against the dollar (that is the fact of completion of wave (B) or (X) of for the main European currencies) is the main event expected in 2007 from the point of view prices movement forecasting»
Possible completion of USD fall, which lasts almost a year and a half, may be expected in May 2007. According to one of the alternate variants this fall completion may be expected at the beginning of April 2007 (April 6-9, 2007). That is why April may be a critical month full of surprises.
Most probable variants of prices movement for April 2007 are given in the correspondent articles.
Note
This report reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release. This report is subject to change, it will be reflected in daily analyses or in additional articles in Wave analysis.
It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show probable price movements.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
March 31, 2007
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.




Possible completion of USD fall, which lasts almost a year and a half, may be expected in May 2007. According to one of the alternate variants this fall may complete at the beginning of April 2007 (April 6-9, 2007). That is why April may be a critical month full of surprises. Introduction
Price movement, supposed in Monthly-0307 was forming in accordance with the forecast. For the results refer to Figure E1.


Figure E1. Final daily chart of the forecast for March, 2007.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of EUR movement a month ago is given in the chart.

Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of EUR in large time frames refer to Annual-07 and Check Point. Normal flight.

Figure E2. Wave counting on the daily chart. The main variant.

According to the main variant wave (B)? or (X) keeps forming. Currently upward zigzag (a)-(b)-(c) of [y] of Y of (B) is forming. Its wave-link (b) of [y] is supposed to be completed. This wave (b) is interesting as it is a running triangle, a signal of expected powerful price advance.
If the supposition is correct wave (c) of [y] completion may be expected around strong resistance at 1.3650 or in the area of new highs, corresponding to the traditional Fibo projections for a zigzag.
Endings of supposed wave X of (B) and wave [x] of Y are the critical levels of the main variant.

Figure E3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Alternate variant.

According to one of the alternate scenarios impulse (a) keeps forming. In this case 1.35 is an appropriate level for its completion. Possible ending of wave v of (a) is projected in this area. If it happens on April 6, 2007 above another pulse point the rest of April the price will be forming correction (b).
Wave i of (a) ending is a critical level.
Moreover, the ending of the upward wave, formed at the beginning of April, may be the ending of the whole correction (B).
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
March 31, 2007
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.




Introduction
Price movement, supposed in Monthly-0307 was forming in accordance with the forecast. For the results refer to Figure G1.


Figure G1. Final daily chart of the forecast for March, 2007.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of GBP movement a month ago is given in the chart.

Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of GBP in large time frames refer to Annual-07 and Check Point. Normal flight..

Figure G2. Wave counting on the daily chart. The main variant.

According to the main variant wave (B)? or (X) keeps forming. Currently upward zigzag (a)-(b)-(c) of [y] of Y of (B) is forming. Its wave-link (b) of [y] is supposed to be completed. If the supposition is correct, wave (c) of [y] ending may be expected around a strong resistance level at 2.00 or around the highs corresponding to the traditional fibo projections for a zigzag.
Endings of supposed wave X of (B) and wave [x] of Y are the critical levels of the main variant.

Figure G3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Alternate variant.

According to one of the alternate scenarios impulse (a) keeps forming. In this case 1.99 is an appropriate level for its completion. Possible ending of wave v of (a) is projected in this area. If it happens on April 6, 2007 above another pulse point the rest of April the price will be forming correction (b).
Wave i of (a) ending is a critical level.
Moreover, the ending of the upward wave, formed at the beginning of April, may be the ending of the whole correction (B).
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
March 31, 2007
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.


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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 11:56 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
Price movement, supposed in Monthly-0307 was forming in accordance with the forecast. For the results refer to Figure Y1.


Figure Y1. Final daily chart of the forecast for March, 2007.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of JPY movement a month ago is given in the chart.

Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of JPY in large time frames refer to Annual-07 and Check Point. Normal flight.

Figure Y2. Wave counting on the daily chart. The main variant.

According to the main variant corrective wave (B)? keeps forming. Its wave B of (B) has assumed the shape of the ordinary zigzag, supposed wave C of (B) is assuming the shape of the downward impulse. Price fall below 114.42 may confirm the accepted scenario. .
114.00 and 112.00 are strong resistance levels. They are quite suitable for the area of possible ending of impulse C of (B). Ending of supposed wave of C is the critical level of the main scenario.

Figure Y3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Alternate variant.

According to the alternate scenario this year downtrend is a larger impulse than in the main variant, according to which only its third wave [iii] of C is forming. If the supposition is correct ending of wave [iii] may be expected on April 6, 2007 above another key pulse point, the rest of April the price will form correction [iv].
Ending of supposed wave of B, 114.42, is the confirmatory level. Endings of wave (i) of [iii] and wave of C are the critical levels.
Moreover, ending of the downward wave formed at the beginning of April may be the ending of the whole correction (B).
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
March 31, 2007
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.




Introduction
Price movement, supposed in Monthly-0307 was forming in accordance with the forecast. For the results refer to Figure C1.


Figure C1. Final daily chart of the forecast for March, 2007.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of CHF movement a month ago is given in the chart.

Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of EUR in large time frames refer to Annual-07 and Check Point. Normal flight.

Figure C2. Wave counting on the daily chart. The main variant.

According to the main variant wave (B)? or (X) keeps forming. Currently downward zigzag (a)-(b)-(c) of [y] of Y of (B) is forming. Its wave-link (b) of [y] is supposed to be completed. This wave (b) is interesting as it is a running triangle, a signal of expected powerful price fall.
If the supposition is correct wave (c) of [y] completion may be expected around strong resistance (1.18,) 1.15 or 1.13, corresponding to the traditional Fibo projections for a zigzag.
Endings of supposed wave b of (b) of [y] of Y and wave [w] of Y are the confirmatory levels. Price fall below 1.1879 may confirm the accepted scenario vividly.
Endings of supposed wave X of (B) and wave [x] of Y are the critical levels of the main variant.

Figure C3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Alternate variant.

According to one of the alternate scenarios impulse (a) keeps forming. In this case 1.19 is an appropriate level for its completion. Possible ending of wave v of (a) is projected in this area. If it happens on April 6, 2007 above another pulse point the rest of April the price will be forming correction (b).
Ending of supposed wave [w] of Y is the confirmatory level. Wave i of (a) ending is a critical level.
Moreover, the ending of the downward wave, formed at the beginning of April, may be the ending of the whole correction (B).
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
March 31, 2007
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.


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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 11:57 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
In Annual-07 it was supposed that
«…confirmation of completion of more than annual prices movement against the dollar (that is the fact of completion of wave (B) or (X) of for the main European currencies) is the main event expected in 2007 from the point of view prices movement forecasting»
From my point of view this trend reverse is really the most expected event. This expectation is based on the forecast released almost a year and a half ago in Annual-06:
«…Further price movement will depend on different data, if, once the trend is reversed, completed three-wave pattern forms by November, 2006, its high/low may be the second high/low of many-month extended correction. … Otherwise the US Dollar decline may last at least till May, 2007.»
Several days left before the beginning of May, USD weakening, begun at the end of 2005, is still valid. It's quite a weighty argument in favor of EWA and my approach in Forex analysis.
An attempt to specify the date of the global trend reverse on the basis of the wave picture analysis and key pulse points method provides us with an interesting result. On the one hand the reverse is projected at the very end of May — beginning of June (the check point of June 2, 2007, released long time ago). On the other hand the minimum acceptable time board for the area of this reverse begins in the first decade of May, and the European currencies have almost formed a completed corrective wave structure, consisting of seven waves.
Thus, it may be expected that the trend reverse in favor of the dollar will begin either at the beginning of May or immediately after the correction forms its eleventh wave by the beginning of June. I prefer the last variant, as it was on the basis of the forecasts of the last year and a half. At the same time I consider these variants to be equally probable and the situation to be dynamically unsteady, that is why I do not treat these variants as the main and the alternate ones, I just call them variant 1 and variant 2, which are given in the corresponding parts.
If the price will give a surprise and form some intermediate variant, the global scenarios of every pair under consideration may be revised principally.
Note
This report reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release. This report is subject to change, it will be reflected in daily analyses or in additional articles in Wave analysis.
It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show probable price movements.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
April 29, 2007
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.


Introduction
Price movement, supposed in Monthly-0407, was forming in accordance with the forecast. The results are given on Figure E1.


Figure E1. Final daily chart for April, 2007.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of EUR movement a month ago is given in the chart.

Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of EUR in large time frames refer to Annual-07 and Possible perspectives of the European currencies for 2007.

Figure E2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1.

According to variant 1 wave (B)? forming is almost completed.
Ending of supposed wave (b) of [y] of Y is the confirmatory level. Ending of supposed wave (B)? will be the critical level, once its completion is confirmed.

Figure E3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 2.

According to variant 2 ending of wave (c) of [y] may be expected above the historical high of the euro, there are no support/resistance levels yet. But by the analogy with CHF USD weakening by 300-500 pips may be expected.
Wave vi of (c) ending is the critical level.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Ссылки по теме
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
April 29, 2007 (11:00, Moscow time)
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.





Introduction
Price movement, supposed in Monthly-0407, was forming in accordance with the forecast. The results are given on Figure G1.


Figure G1. Final daily chart for April, 2007.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of GBP movement a month ago is given in the chart.

Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of EUR in large time frames refer to Annual-07 and Possible perspectives of the European currencies for 2007.

Figure G2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1.

According to variant 1 wave (B)? forming is almost completed.
Ending of supposed wave (b) of [y] of Y is the confirmatory level. Ending of supposed wave (B)? is the critical level.

Figure G3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 2.

According to variant 2 wave (c) of [y] ending may be expected above the support/resistance levels of 1991-92. But by the analogy with CHF USD weakening by 300-500 pips may be expected.
Wave vi of (c) ending is the critical level.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference:
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
April 29, 2007 (11:00, Moscow time)
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd



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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 11:58 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
Price fall, supposed in Monthly-0407, was not realized, though USD was weakening in accordance with the forecast. JPY fall might have been more significant. The results are given on Figure Y1.


Figure Y1. Final daily chart for April, 2007.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of JPY movement a month ago is given in the chart.

Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of EUR in large time frames refer to Annual-07 and Check point, normal flight..

Figure Y2. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 1.

JPY may be forming the double three or extended horizontal correction (such variant was described in Annual-07), rather than the extended flat.
According to the first variant corrective wave C of (B) keeps forming. It is assuming the shape of the zigzag, which is characteristic of triangles. Price fall below the level of wave [a] of C of (B) ending will confirm this scenario. Ending of supposed wave B of (B) is the critical level. Details are given on the next chart.

Figure Y3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1.

114.00 and 112.00 are strong resistance levels. They quite suit for the area of possible ending of impulse [c] of C of (B), forming a proportional zigzag C of (B).

Figure Y4. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 2.

According to the alternate scenario from the mid of 2006 the final wave (C) of [E] has been forming, assuming the shape of the diagonal triangle.
Ending of supposed wave 1 of (C) is the confirmatory level. Ending of wave 2 of (C) is the critical level.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference:
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
April 29, 2007 (11:00, Moscow time)
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.




Introduction
Price movement, supposed in Monthly-0407, was forming in accordance with the forecast. The results are given on Figure C1.


Figure C1. Final daily chart for April 2007.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of CHF movement a month ago is given in the chart.

Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of EUR in large time frames refer to Annual-07 and Possible perspectives of the European currencies for 2007. .

Figure C2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1.

According to variant 1 wave (B)? forming is almost completed.
Ending of supposed wave (b) of [y] of Y is the confirmatory level. Ending of supposed wave (B)?, once its ending is confirmed, is the critical level.

Figure C3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 2.

According to variant 2 wave (c) of [y] ending may be expected in the area of strong resistance levels at 1.18 (1.15 and 1.13).
Wave vi of (c) ending is the critical level.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference:
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
April 29, 2007 (11:00, Moscow time)
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd


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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 11:59 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
In Annual-07 it was supposed that
«…confirmation of completion of more than annual prices movement against the dollar (that is the fact of completion of wave (B) or (X) of for the main European currencies) is the main event expected in 2007 from the point of view prices movement forecasting»
Supposedly for the European currencies the trend reversed in favor of the dollar at the end of April 2007. Though it has not been confirmed yet. That is why the scenarios under consideration are vulnerable.
Note
This report reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release. This report is subject to change, it will be reflected in daily analyses or in additional articles in Wave analysis.
It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show probable price movements.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
June 2, 2007 (14:00 Moscow time)
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari Ltd. is obligatory.



Introduction
Price movement, supposed in Monthly-0507 was forming in accordance with the forecast. For the results refer to Figure E1.


Figure E1. Final daily chart of the forecast for May 2007.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of EUR movement a month ago is given in the chart.

Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of CHF in large time frames refer to Annual-07 and Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives.

Figure E2. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Supposedly the trend reversed in favor of the dollar at the end of April 2007. Downward movement which has assumed the shape of the wedge (a) is a weighty argument in favor of this supposition. It is quite logic to expect at least one more downward impulse (or diagonal triangle) (c) after correction (b) completes.
If the supposition is correct till the end of the next week the price will be finishing correction (b), which may assume the shape of the flat, then the price will keep falling.

Figure E3. Wave counting on daily chart.

Endings of waves (a) of [w] of (C), (b) of [y] of Y of (B) and [x] of Y of (B) are the confirmatory levels. Ending of wave (B)? is the critical levels.
The type of the pattern of the global corrective wave and forecast of the point of its completion will depend on the shape the price chooses for the downward wave (C)? of . Now several equally probable variants (see Annual-07) are under consideration.
If the price rises above the critical level I will have to pass to one of the alternate scenarios, described earlier in Section «Wave Analysis».
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
June 2, 2007 (14:00 Moscow time)
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari Ltd. is obligatory.





Introduction
Price movement, supposed in Monthly-0507 was forming in accordance with the forecast. For the results refer to Figure G1.


Figure G1. Final daily chart of the forecast for May 2007.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of GBP movement a month ago is given in the chart.

Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of GBP in large time frames refer to Annual-07 and Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives.

Figure G2. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Supposedly the trend reversed in favor of the dollar at the second half of April 2007. Downward movement which has assumed the shape of the wedge (a) is a weighty argument in favor of this supposition. It is quite logic to expect at least one more downward impulse (or diagonal triangle) (c) after correction (b) completes.
If the supposition is correct till the end of the next week the price will be finishing correction (b), which may assume the shape of the zigzag, then the price will keep falling.

Figure G3. Wave counting on daily chart.

Endings of waves (a) of [w] of (C), (b) of [y] of Y of (B) and [x] of Y of (B) are the confirmatory levels. Ending of wave (B)? is the critical levels.
The type of the pattern of the global corrective wave and forecast of the point of its completion will depend on the shape the price chooses for the downward wave (C)? of . Now several equally probable variants (see Annual-07) are under consideration.
If the price rises above the critical level I will have to pass to one of the alternate scenarios, described earlier in Section «Wave Analysis».
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
June 2, 2007 (14:00 Moscow time)
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari Ltd. is obligatory


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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 12:00 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
In May the price preferred the scenario when the dollar strengthens (this scenario was described in Monthly-0507), it is based on the alternate scenario, described in Annual-07. The results are given in Figure Y1.


Figure Y1. Final weekly chart of the forecast for 2007.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of JPY movement five months ago is given in the chart.

Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of JPY in large time frames refer to Annual-07 and Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives.

Figure Y2. Wave counting on daily chart.

The dollar was strengthening in accordance with the alternate scenario. Supposedly upward wave 3 of the diagonal triangle (C) of [E] is assuming the shape of the narrow double/triple zigzag. If the supposition is correct upward movement will continue in the narrow trend channel. Otherwise I will have to pass to one of the alternate scenarios.
The ending of wave 1 of (C) is the confirmatory level. The ending of wave 2 of (C) is still the critical level.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
June 2, 2007 (14:00 Moscow time)
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari Ltd. is obligatory.



Introduction
Price movement, supposed in Monthly-0507 was forming in accordance with the forecast. For the results refer to Figure C1.


Figure C1. Final daily chart of the forecast for May 2007.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of CHF movement a month ago is given in the chart.

Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of CHF in large time frames refer to Annual-07 and Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives.

Figure C2. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Supposedly the trend reversed in favor of the dollar at the end of April 2007. Upward movement which has assumed the shape of the impulse (a) is a weighty argument in favor of this supposition. It is quite logic to expect at least one more upward impulse (or diagonal triangle) (c) after completion of correction (b).
If the supposition is correct till the end of the next week the price will be finishing correction (b), which may assume the shape of the flat, then the price will keep rising.

Figure C3. Wave counting on daily chart.

Endings of waves (a) of [w] of (C) and [x] of Y of (B) are the confirmatory levels. Ending of wave (B)? is the critical levels.
The type of the pattern of the global corrective wave and forecast of the point of its completion will depend on the shape the price chooses for the upward wave (C) of . Now several equally probable variants (see Annual-07) are under consideration.
If the price falls below the critical level I will have to pass to one of the alternate scenarios, described earlier in Section “Wave Analysis”.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
June 2, 2007 (14:00 Moscow time)
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari Ltd. is obligatory.


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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 12:03 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
Price movement, supposed in Monthly-0607 formed in accordance with the forecast in the first half of the month. Though the fact that the dollar kept falling made me adjust possible scenarios for the 2nd half of 2007 (see Annual-07(2)). The result is given in Figure C1.


Figure C1. Final daily chart of June forecast, 2007.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of CHF movement a month ago is given in the chart.

Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-07(2).

Figure C2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3.

According to variant 3 under consideration downward wave (B) forming is not completed yet, currently wave-link [x] is forming. It is assuming the shape of the horizontal triangle (or triple three).
Supposedly, by the moment this article is released the last downward movement has formed quite a harmonious impulse a of (d) of [x]. If the supposition is confirmed, wave (d) may assume the shape of the zigzag. If proportions of the main waves of the triangle are preserved, wave (d) of [x] ending may be expected around 1.21.
Wave (c) of [x] ending (for the horizontal triangle also (b) of [x] ending) is the critical level before wave (d) of [x] is completed.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
July 1, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari Ltd. is obligatory




Introduction
Price movement, supposed in Monthly-0607 formed in accordance with the forecast in the first half of the month. Though the fact that the dollar kept falling made me adjust possible scenarios for the 2nd half of 2007 (see Annual-07(2)). The result is given in Figure C1.


Figure Y1. Final daily chart of June forecast, 2007.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of JPY movement a month ago is given in the chart.

Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-07(2).

Figure Y2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 2.

USD strengthened (or rather JPY weakened) in accordance with the main variant. Though supposed further fall of the dollar corresponds to variant 2, described in Annual-07(2).
According to this variant wave B of a large flat is completed (or almost completed). If the supposition is correct in the nearest future downward wave C will keep forming. The ending of supposed wave B is the critical level in this case, ending of supposed wave of v of (c) is the nearest confirmation.
At the same time uptrend may keep forming (the alternate variant is marked in grey) as wave B completion is not confirmed yet.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
July 1, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari Ltd. is obligatory.





Introduction
Price movement, supposed in Monthly-0607 formed in accordance with the forecast in the first half of the month. Though the fact that the dollar kept falling made me adjust possible scenarios for the 2nd half of 2007 (see Annual-07(2)). The result is given in Figure C1.


Figure G1. Final daily chart of June forecast, 2007.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of EUR movement a month ago is given in the chart.

Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-07(2).

Figure G2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3.

According to variant 3 under consideration upward wave (B) forming is not completed yet, currently the second wave-link XX of (B) is forming. It is not clear yet which shape it will assume. Though it will hardly be a simple zigzag as the first supposed wave [w] or [a] of XX is a zigzag. It is interesting that at this stage of forming by the inner structure and the outer shape it is like the neighbouring correction [x] of Y.
Supposedly, by the moment this article is released the last upward movement has formed quite a harmonious impulse (a) of [x]. If the supposition is confirmed, wave [x] may assume the shape of the zigzag.
Judging by the relative position of the current ending of wave [x] of XX the wave XX won't be a double or triple zigzag. It may assume the shape of either double/triple three or flat, or an extended horizontal correction.
As the price has almost reached the level of wave Y ending there is no sense to specify the critical level for wave [x] of XX.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
July 1, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari Ltd. is obligatory.




Introduction
Price movement, supposed in Monthly-0607 formed in accordance with the forecast in the first half of the month. Though the fact that the dollar kept falling made me adjust possible scenarios for the 2nd half of 2007 (see Annual-07(2)). The result is given in Figure E1.


Figure E1. Final daily chart of June forecast, 2007.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of EUR movement a month ago is given in the chart.

Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-07(2).

Figure E2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3.

According to variant 3 under consideration upward wave (B) forming is not completed yet, currently the second wave-link XX of (B) is forming. It is not clear yet which shape it will assume. Though it will hardly be a simple zigzag as the first supposed wave [w] or [a] of XX is a zigzag.
Supposedly, by the moment this article is released the last upward movement has formed quite a harmonious impulse (a) of [x]. If the supposition is confirmed, wave [x] may assume the shape of the zigzag.
Depending on the relative position of wave [x] of XX ending we can judge about the shape of the forming correction XX (either horizontal correction or double/triple zigzag, is given in grey).
Wave [w] of XX ending is the critical level before wave [x] of XX forming completes.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
July 1, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari Ltd. is obligatory.



Introduction
2 check points were published to specify possible limit date of the long-term trend reverse in Annual-07. A month ago the second check point fell behind (June 2, 2007), whereas completion of USD fall has not been confirmed. Thus, long-term USD downtrend is still valid for the main currencies.
As it has been mentioned, e.g. in Monthly-0607, in periods of expected trend breakout the number of possible variants of the wave counting increases significantly and scenarios become more vulnerable.
As the current scenarios are vulnerable and wave picture on small time-frames is unsteady three possible scenarios were described in Annual-07(2) and in the forecast for July 2007 the most probable scenario from my point of view was considered.
Note
This report reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release. This report is subject to change, it will be reflected in daily analyses or in additional articles in Wave analysis.
It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show probable price movements.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
July 1, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari Ltd. is obligatory.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 16:08 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 12:04 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
Price movement, supposed in Monthly-0707, schematically remained within the forecast. Though by the mid of the month it became clear that the price prefers scenario v.3-alt, rather than v.3, as supposed earlier [see Annual-07(2)]. This fact influenced daily forecasts. The result is given in Figure C1.


Figure C1. Final daily chart of July forecast, 2007.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of CHF movement a month ago is given in the chart.

Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-07(2).

Figure C2. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3-alt.

According to scenario 3-alt downward wave (B) keeps forming, currently supposed final zigzag [y] of Y of (B) is forming. The area of the projected values, specified through zigzag [w] of Y of (B), is given in the chart. Once forming of supposed wave (b) of [y] of Y completes there will be new data to adjust the projected area.
Wave [x] of Y ending is the critical level before wave [y] completes its forming.

Figure C3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-alt.

Forming wave (b) of [y] is supposed to be assuming the shape of the extended or running flat. Though wave (b) of [y] may be completed, having assumed the shape of the double zigzag (the alternate variant is given in grey, see the next picture).

Figure C4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-alt.

If the supposition is correct forming of the second wave b of flat (b) of [y] is almost completed. Wave b of (b) of [y] length is almost equal to the limited value for extended or running flats, that is why the alternate variant, given in grey in the chart, is possible.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
August 4, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.



Introduction
Price movement, supposed in Monthly-0607, was forming in accordance with the forecast. The result is given in Figure Y1.


Figure Y1. Final daily chart of July forecast, 2007.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of JPY movement a month ago is given in the chart.

Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-07(2).

Figure Y2. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 2.

According to variant 2 wave B of a large flat (B) of [E] is completed. If the supposition is correct currently downward final wave C of (B) is forming, it is assuming the shape of the impulse. Concerns about USD weakening against the European currencies are an additional argument in favor of this scenario. New data to adjust the projected area will appear while forming of the downward impulse C of (B).
At the same time as long as the pair is not fixed below 115 this scenario is vulnerable. Ending of supposed wave B is its critical level.

Figure Y3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 2.

Supposedly the first wave of impulse C has assumed the shape of the impulse with extension in the fifth wave (v) of . If the supposition is correct we should expect forming of the so-called Elliott's double retracement with correction [ii] ending at least around 120 value.

Figure Y4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 2.

At the same time according to the wave structure of the begun corrective wave [ii] it may form upwards in the shape of the (double/triple) zigzag up to 121 mark.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
August 4, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.




Introduction
Price movement, supposed in Monthly-0707, schematically remained within the forecast. Though by the mid of the month it became clear that the price prefers scenario v.2, rather than v.3, as supposed earlier [see Annual-07(2)]. This fact influenced daily forecasts. The result is given in Figure G1.


Figure G1. Final daily chart of July forecast, 2007.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of GBP movement a month ago is given in the chart.

Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-07(2).

Figure G2. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 2.

According to scenario 2 upward wave (B) keeps forming, currently supposed final zigzag [z] of Y of (B) is forming. The area of the projected values, specified through the double zigzag W of (B), is given in the chart. Once forming of supposed wave (b) of [z] of Y completes there will be new data to adjust the projected area.
Wave [xx] of Y of (B) ending is the critical level before wave [z] completes its forming.

Figure G3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 2.

Forming wave (b) of [y] is supposed to be assuming the shape of the zigzag. Though this wave may be completed (the alternate variant is given in grey, see the next picture).

Figure G4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 2.

If the supposition is correct forming of the second wave b of zigzag (b) of [z] is almost completed. Wave b of (b) of [z] length is almost equal to the optimum value for zigzags, though the alternate variant, given in grey in the chart, is also possible.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
August 4, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.




Introduction
Price movement, supposed in Monthly-0707, schematically remained within the forecast. Though by the mid of the month it became clear that the price prefers scenario v.2, rather than v.3, as supposed earlier [see Annual-07(2)]. This fact influenced daily forecasts. The result is given in Figure E1.


Figure E1. Final daily chart of July forecast, 2007.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of EUR movement a month ago is given in the chart.

Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-07(2).

Figure E2. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 2.

According to scenario 2 upward wave (B) keeps forming, currently supposed final zigzag [z] of Y of (B) is forming. The area of the projected values, specified through the double zigzag W of (B), is given in the chart. Once forming of supposed wave (b) of [z] of Y completes there will be new data to adjust the projected area.
Wave [xx] of Y of (B) ending is the critical level before wave [z] completes its forming.

Figure E3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 2.

Forming wave (b) of [y] is supposed to be assuming the shape of the flat. Though wave (b) of [y] may be completed, having assumed the shape of the zigzag (the alternate variant is given in grey, see the next picture).

Figure E4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 2.

If the supposition is correct forming of the second wave b of flat (b) of [z] is almost completed. Wave b of (b) of [z] length is almost equal to the optimum value for flats, though the alternate variant, given in grey in the chart, is also possible.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
August 4, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.




Introduction
In the forecast for the second half of the year 3 most probable scenarios of movement were given for the currency pairs under consideration [see Annual-07(2)]. The price might have made its choice and in this forecast for August 2007 most probable scenario from my point of view is described.
Note
This report reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release. This report is subject to change, it will be reflected in daily analyses or in additional articles in Wave analysis.
It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show probable price movements.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
August 4, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 12:09 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
Reversal and price movement, supposed in Monthly-0807 was forming in accordance with the forecast. The result is given in Figure C1.


Figure C1. Final daily chart of August forecast, 2007.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of CHF movement a month ago is given in the chart.

Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-07(2) and article Let's Analyse Zigzag Wave Construction.

Figure C2. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3-alt2.

According to variant 3-alt2 forming of the downward wave (B) is not completed yet, currently supposed wave X of (B) is forming in the shape of the skewed triangle or another extended horizontal correction that will be specified by the depth of the final wave [e] of X (see tables 3-1 and 3-2 of my book).

Figure C3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-alt2.

Supposedly at the present moment upward double zigzag [e] of X is forming. By the end of September is may reach 1.25 mark.
At the same time wave [d] of X completion is not confirmed yet, that is why the alternate scenario should be also taken into account (see the next chart).

Figure C4. Wave counting on the daily chart. Local alternate scenario of variant 3-alt2.

Within the local alternate variant downward wave [d] of X may keep forming simultaneously with the alternate variants of the other currency pairs.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
September 2, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.



Introduction
Price movement, supposed in Monthly-0607 developed exactly within the forecast. The result you may see in the picture Y1.


Figure Y1. Final daily chart of August forecast, 2007

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of the JPY movement a month ago is given in the chart.

The current variant of wave counting
For the survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-07(2).

Figure Y2. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 2

According to the scenario 2 the wave B of large wave flat (B) of [E] has completed. If the supposition is true at the moment the downward final wave C of (B) in the shape of impulse is forming. An additional argument in favor of this scenario is the expectation of the dollar’s weakening against the European currencies. As the downward impulse C of (B) will be forming new basic data for defining more exactly the project area will appear.
The price has already met the minimum requirements for flats and the current pattern may be treated as a completed running wave flat. However the expected simultaneity in the furhter movement of the dollar’s pairs (refer to Introduction) enables us to suppose that the yen’s downtrend may continue.

Figure Y3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant of scenario 2

Several possible variants of wave counting of the downward section are shown on the chart. The expected Elliott’s double retracement (see the picture 2-8 of my book) is an additional argument in favor of the accepted scenario.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
September 2, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.




Introduction
Price movement, supposed in Monthly-0807 schematically remained within the forecast. However due to the depth of the dollar strengthening we may return to the initially preferred scenario v.3 [см. Annual-07(2)]. This fact was revealed in the article Let's Analyse Zigzag Wave Construction and daily forecasts. The result is given in picture G1.




For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of GBP movement a month ago is given in the chart.

The current variant of wave counting
For the survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-07(2) and in the article Let's Analyze Zigzag Wave Construction. .



According to scenario 3 upward wave (B) keeps forming, currently supposed wave XX of (B) is forming. Wave X of (B) ending is the critical level before wave XX forming completes.
Currently the price is at the bifurcation point and it is not clear yet which of scenarios possible for wave XX of (B) the price will choose. It may be either some kind of the flat (extended or running) or an extended horizontal correction (see the next pictures).



The last upward movement [wave (iv) in Figure E3] was crushed at the very end, allowing to regret to interpret it either as a narrow double zigzag or a bit strained impulse. That is why both variants should be taken into account until the wave picture becomes clear.
The last upward movement may be treated as an impetuous double zigzag (iv) of [c] without any strains. In this case till the end of September downward movement may form in the shape of a narrow zigzag construction which won't break the critical levels and complete diagonal triangle [c] of XX. As the result wave XX of (B) may assume the shape of the flat, alternation guidelines Complicated-Simple-Most Complicated will be followed В результате волна XX of (B) может принять форму волновой плоскости с соблюдением указания по чередованию С-П-СС (see table 4-2 of my book).
It should be noted that the amplitude of the supposed wave of XX is slightly outside the framework of statistics for 95% of similar wave flats (see the table 4-3 of my book), which is an alerting factor.



At the same time if with some strains we suppose that the last upward movement is impulse (a) of [d] then it will be most probable that wave XX of (B) is assuming the shape of the extended wave correction ( see tables 3-1 and 3-2 of my book).
In this case a shallow downward correction (b) of [d] with further completion of upward zigzag [d] should be expected to form till the second half of September .
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
September 2, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.



Introduction
Price movement, supposed in Monthly-0807 schematically remained within the forecast. Though due to the depth of the dollar strengthening we may return to the initial preferred scenario v.3 [see Annual-07(2)]. This fact was revealed in article Let's Analyse Zigzag Wave Construction and daily forecasts. The result is given in picture E1.


Figure E1. Final daily chart of August forecast, 2007.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of EUR movement a month ago is given in the chart.

Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-07(2) and article Let's Analyse Zigzag Wave Construction.

Figure E2. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3.

According to scenario 3 upward wave (B) keeps forming, currently supposed wave XX of (B) is forming. Wave X of (B) ending is the critical level before wave XX forming completes.
Currently the price is in the bifurcation point and it is not clear yet what scenario possible for wave XX of (B) the price will choose. It may be either some kind of the flat (extended or running) or an extended horizontal correction (see the next pictures).

Figure E3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3.

The last upward movement [wave (iv) in Figure E3] was crushed at the very end, that is why it may be treated either as a narrow double zigzag or a bit strained impulse. That is why both variants should be taken into account until the wave picture becomes clear.
The last upward movement may be treated as an impetuous double zigzag (iv) of [c] without any strains. In this case till the end of September downward movement may form in the shape of the narrow zigzag construction which won't break the critical levels and complete diagonal triangle [c] of XX. As the result wave XX of (B) may assume the shape of the flat, alternation guidelines Complicated-Simple-Most Complicated will be followed (see table 4-2 of my book).

Figure E4. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-alt.

At the same time if with some strains we suppose that the last upward movement is impulse (a) of [d] then it will be most probable that wave XX of (B) is assuming the shape of the extended wave correction (see tables 3-1 and 3-2 of my book).
In this case a shallow downward correction (b) of [d] with further completion of upward zigzag [d] should be expected to form till the second half of September.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
September 2, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.




Introduction
It should be noted that until now there are no reasons to speak of end of the trend against the USD. During the summer several most probable scenarios of movement of the main dollar pairs, considered in Annual-07(2), by turns came to the fore. At the moment preference is given to the scenarion v.3 for the European currencies, the ground of which is stated in the article Analysing a zigzag wave construction.
Below You may see the survey wave pictures of the currencies under consideration where I tried to make a durable schematic forecast in the form of synchronized price movement. To make it easier to compare the currencies are divided into direct and reverse dollar pairs.
Direct dollar pairs








The euro’s and pound’s rise on the back of the dollar’s weakening since the end of the 2005 year has formed a sweeping upward pattern, supposedly, a triple zigzag.
In this pattern sections of the dollar’s rise (green lines), which are correctional towards the dominant price movement, appeared to be isolated centers of resistance against prevailing trend.
Reverse dollar pairs







Please note, that in JPY and CHF sections of the dollar’s rise (heavy green lines), which are correctional towards the dominant trend, has formed a common correctional pattern of a senior level.
For the CHF it is a wave-link X of (B) in the shape of supposed skewed triangle, that divides the big double zigzag into halves. And for the JPY it is the wave B of (B) of supposed extended wave plane.
Note
This report reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release. This report is subject to change, it will be reflected in daily analyses or in additional articles in Wave analysis.
It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show probable price movements.
Abbreviations
Annual-07 — Annual wave analysis for 2007
Annual -07(2) — forecast for the second half of 2007 Monthly-1206 — Monthly wave analysis for December 2006
Daily-280406 — Daily wave analysis for 28.04.06


Reference


[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 16:17 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 12:14 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
Reversal and price movement, supposed in Monthly-0907 was forming in accordance with the forecast. The result is given in Figure C1.


Figure C1. Final daily chart of September forecast, 2007.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of CHF movement a month ago is given in the chart.

Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-07(2) and article Let's Analyse Zigzag Wave Construction .

Figure C2. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

In the picture we can see that the supposed downward zigzag (A)-(B)-(C) has almost completed. The wave structure gives several arguments in favor of this supposition:
  • impulses (A) and (C) are fully completed,
  • price in expanding diagonal triangles as a rule doesn’t reach the lower forming line, and we can see it in the supposed diagonal triangle 5 of (C),
  • impulse (C) is approximately equal to impulse (A) in length, supposing an almost ideal zigzag.
This is one of the suppositions that are the basis for the scenario with the developing corrective wave X. If the supposition is true in October a deep upward corrective wave [e] of X is expected to form (see the picture below).
Inspite of my preference of this scenario, there are no confirmation of the completeion of the whole downward movement that has been developing since the beginning of September. It means that if the following correction is modest and short term, the downward movement may continue, transforming zigzag (A)-(B)-(C) in an impulse or in a narrow double zigzag. In such case I will have to prefer one of the alternate scenarios.

Figure C3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Local alternate variant of scenario 3-alt2.

Several variants of counting of the corrective knot, shown in the picture, are possible. The accepted variant will be confirmed if the price immediately reverses upward, than fixes over the upper forming line of trend channel of the wave (y) of [d], and then crosses the confirming level.
Ideally, a rather deep corrective wave [e] of X witn ending above the 1.1919 mark must form (the ending if the wave W, refer to the article Let's Analyse Zigzag Wave Construction ).
If the price downward movement continues after a short term correction one of the alternate variants may becaome preferable.
Thus it is the depth of the expected correction that will determine the further scenario of price movement.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
September 30, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.



Introduction
Price movement, supposed in Monthly-0907 developed exactly within the forecast. The result you may see in the picture Y1.


Figure Y1. Final daily chart of September forecast, 2007.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of the JPY movement a month ago is given in the chart.

The current variant of wave counting
For the survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-07(2) and in the article Let's Analyse Zigzag Wave Construction .

Figure Y2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 2.

Practically horizontal correction that has been forming since the middle of August, insistently supposes furher decline of the price after its completion. The correction itself may be the fourth wave of an impulse or a wave link of a big downward zigzag.
However if the yen as the dollar pair continues to move synchronously with the European currencies under consideration, then an upward double or triple zigzag (w)-(x)-(y)-(xx)-(z) may form.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
September 30, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.



Introduction
Price movement, supposed in Monthly-0907 was forming in accordance with the forecast. The result is given in Figure G1.


Figure G1. Final daily chart of September forecast, 2007.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of GBP movement a month ago is given in the chart.

Current variant of wave counting
For the survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-07(2) and in the article Let's Analyse Zigzag Wave Construction .

Figure G2. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

In the picture we can clearly see that the supposed upward zigzag (a)-(b)-(c) has almost completed. The wave structure gives several arguments in favor of this supposition:
  • impulse (a) and diagonal triangle (c) are fully completed,
  • price in expanding diagonal triangles as a rule doesn’t reach the upper forming line, and we can see it in the supposed diagonal triangle (c),
  • diagonal triangle (c) is approximately equal to impulse (a) in length, suggesting a an almost ideal zigzag.
This is one of the suppositions that are the basis for the scenario with the developing corrective wave XX. If the supposition is true in October a deep downward corrective wave [e] of XX is expected to form (see the picture below).
Inspite of my preference of this scenario, there are no confirmation of the completeion of the whole upward movement that has been developing since the middle of August. It means that if the following correction is modest and short term, the upward movement may continue, transforming zigzag (a)-(b)-(c) in an upward impulse or in a narrow double zigzag. In such case I will have to prefer one of the alternate scenarios.

Figure G3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-alt.

Several variants of counting of the corrective knot, shown in the picture, are possible. The accepted variant will be confirmed if the price immediately reverses downward, than fixes below the lower forming line of trend channel of the wave [d], and then crosses the confirming levels.
Ideally, a rather deep corrective wave [e] of XX witn ending below the 2.0130 mark (the top of the wave Y) must form.
If the price upward movement continues after a short term correction one of the alternate variants may becaome preferable (it is shown in the chart with the grey color).

Thus it is the depth of the expected correction that will determine the further scenario of price movement.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
September 30, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.




Introduction
Price movement, supposed in Monthly-0907 was forming in accordance with the forecast. The result is given in Figure E1.


Figure E1. Final daily chart of September forecast, 2007.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of EUR movement a month ago is given in the chart.

Current variant of wave counting
For the survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-07(2) and in the article Let's Analyse Zigzag Wave Construction .

Figure E2. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

In the picture we can clearly see that the supposed upward zigzag a-b-c has almost completed. The wave structure gives several arguments in favor of this supposition:
  • impulses «a» and «c» are fully completed,
  • diagonal triangle [5] of c has formed a classical finishing thrust of price, which has broken the upper forming line,
  • impulse «c» is approximately equal to impulse «a» in length, suggesting an almost ideal zigzag.
This is one of the suppositions that are the basis for the scenario with the developing corrective wave XX. If the supposition is true in October a deep downward corrective wave [e] of XX is expected to form (see the picture below).
In spite of my preference of this scenario, there is no confirmation of the completeion of the whole upward movement that has been developing since the beginning of September. It means that if the following correction is modest and short term, the upward movement may continue, transforming zigzag a-b-c into an impulse or in a narrow double zigzag. In such case I will have to pass one of the alternate scenarios.

Figure E3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-alt.

A corrective knot, given in the picture, may be marked differently. The accepted scenario will be confrimed if the price reverses downwards immediately and then fix below the lower forming line of the trend channel of wave [d] and then cross the confirmatory levels.
Ideally, a rather deep corrective wave [e] of XX witn ending below the 1.3678 mark (the top of the wave Y) must form.
If the price upward movement continues after a short term correction one of the alternate variants may becaome preferable (it is shown in the chart in the grey color).
Thus it is the depth of the expected correction that will determine the further scenario of price movement.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
September 30, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.




Introduction
It should be noted that there are no reasons to say that the trend against the dollar is completed. In summer several most probable scenarios, considered in Annual-07(2), came into the forefront by turns. Currently scenario v.3 is preferable for the European currencies and scenario v.2 for the yen, the reasons of it are given in article Let's Analyse Zigzag Construction.
Below in the charts I have marked the nearest possible targets of the pairs under consideration with the help of Wolfe waves. It should be noted that the price usually tends to the targets, projected with the help of Wolfe method, though it does not always reach it.


Figure 1. Possible targets for EUR/USD.



Figure 2. Possible targets for GBP/USD.



Figure 3. Possible targets for USD/JPY.



Figure 4. Possible targets for USD/CHF.


Possible scenarios and targets according to Elliott's wave theory are given in the corresponding parts of this forecast.
Note
This report reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release. This report is subject to change, it will be reflected in daily analyses or in additional articles in Wave analysis.
It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show probable price movements.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
September 30, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.


[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 16:20 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 12:16 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
Local trend reversed upwards in the specified point as it was supposed in Monthly-1007. The result is given in picture C1.


Figure C1. Final 120 min chart of October forecast, 2007.

Though upward movement was not quite linear and the expected wave pattern did not manage to complete in October. The result is given in picture C2.

Figure C2. Final daily chart of October forecast, 2007.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of CHF movement a month ago is given in the chart.

Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-07(2) and article Let's Analyse Zigzag Wave Construction .
At the moment two variants are equally probable. I suppose the depth of the expected correction will help choose one of them.

Figure C3. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3-1.

The first variant in accordance with scenario v.3 keeps forming correction X in the shape of the skewed triangle (or triple three) after which the final downward double zigzag Y of (B) is expected.

Figure C4. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-1.

To confirm this variant the price should reverse upwards in the nearest future and break 1.1919 level in the shape of wave [e] of X.

Figure C5. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3-2.

According to the second variant correction X is not so long as it was expected at first and it is completed in the shape of the horizontal triangle. In this case the first zigzag [w] of Y of the final double zigzag Y of (B) is also completed.

Figure C6. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-2.

To confirm this variant price should also reverse upwards in the nearest future though its rise should not be as high as in the first variant. The area around 1.20 will be optimal for wave [x] of Y of (B) ending.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
October 28, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.




Introduction
The price movement supposed in Monthly-1007 developed in exactly accordance with the forecast. The result You may see in the picture Y1.


Figure Y1. Final daily chart of October forecast, 2007.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of the JPY movement a month ago is given in the chart.

The current variant of the wave counting
For the survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-07(2) and in the article Let's Analyse Zigzag Wave Construction .
Just as for the European currencies there is a pair of equally probable scenarios for the Japanese yen and the depth of the expected correction will help to choose one of them.

Figure Y2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 2-1.

The first variant within the scenario v.2 supposes that the upward corrective wave [ii] of C will continue to form in the shape of a triple zigzag. In this case the upward movement may reach the upper limit of the channel of this correction.

Figure Y3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 2-2.

The second variant on the contrary doesn’t exclude that the correction [ii] has completed already in the form of a double zigzag. In this case the expected upward correction (ii) of [iii] won’t be so deep as in the first case.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Imaginary Skewer Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007 Check point. Normal flight. Possible perspectives of the European currencies for 2007 Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives Alternate but Real Weakening of the Dollar till the End of the Summer (or the End of 2007) Let's Analyse Zigzag Wave Construction
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
October 28, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 12:18 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
The downward turn of the local trend supposed in Monthly-1007 took place exactly at the specified point. The result is given in Figure G1.


Figure G1. Final 240 min chart of October forecast, 2007.

However the downward movement wasn’t fully straight-line and the expected wave pattern failed to complete during October. The result is given in Figure G2.

Figure G2. Final daily chart of October forecast, 2007.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of GBP movement a month ago is given in the chart.

The current variant of wave counting
For the survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-07(2) and in the article Let's Analyse Zigzag Wave Construction .
At the present there is a pair of almost equally probable scenarios. Perhaps the depth of the expected correction will help to choose one of them.

Figure G3. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3-1.

The first variant within the scenario v.3 supposes that the correction XX in the shape of a running triangle (or triple three) will continue to form, and after it the ending upward double zigzag Z of (B) is expected.

Figure G4. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-1.

To confirm this variant the price must turn down in the near term and get over the mark 2.0130 in the form of the wave [e] of XX.

Figure G5. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3-2.

The second variant, on the contrary, doesn’t exclude that the correction XX appeared to be not so continuous, as it had been expected before, and is completed in the shape of a double three. In this case the first zigzag [w] of Z of the ending double zigzag Z of (B) may be also completed.

Figure G6. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-2.

To confirm this variant the price must also turn down in the near-term, but its decent may be not so deep as in the first variant. The area around the mark 2.01 will be optimal for the ending of the wave [x] of Y of (B).
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
October 28, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.





Introduction
The downward turn of the local trend supposed in Monthly-1007 took place exactly at the specified point. The result is given in Figure E1.


Figure E1. Final 120 min chart of October forecast, 2007.

However the downward movement wasn’t fully straight-line and the expected wave pattern failed to complete fully during October. The result is given in Figure E2.

Figure E2. Final daily chart of October forecast, 2007.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of EUR movement a month ago is given in the chart.

The current variant of wave counting
For the survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-07(2) and in the article Let's Analyse Zigzag Wave Construction .
At the present there is a pair of almost equally probable scenarios. Perhaps the depth of the expected correction will help to choose one of them.

Figure E3. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3-1.

The first variant within the scenario v.3 supposes that the correction XX in the shape of a skewed triangle (or triple three), after which the ending upward double zigzag Z of (B) is expected.

Figure E4. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-1.

To confirm this variant the price must turn down in the near term and get over the mark 1.3678 in the form of wave [e] of XX.

Figure E5. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3-2.

The second variant, on the contrary, doesn’t exclude that the correction XX appeared to be not so continuous, as it had been expected before, and is completed in the shape of a double three. In this case the first zigzag [w] of Z of the ending double zigzag Z of (B) may be also completed.

Figure E6. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-2.

To confirm this variant the price must also turn down in the near-term, but its decent may be not so deep as in the first variant. The area around the mark 1.38 will be optimal for the ending of the wave [x] of Y of (B).
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
October 28, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.





Introduction
It should be noted that there are no reasons to say that the trend against the dollar is completed. In summer several most probable scenarios of behaviour of the main dollar pairs, considered in Annual-07(2), came into the forefront by turns. Currently scenario v.3 is preferable for the European currencies and scenario v.2 for the yen, the reasons of it are given in article Let's Analyse Zigzag Construction.
Judging by the wave picture local correction in favor of the dollar seems to be urgent. Its depth may help choose one of the most probable scenarios considered in the correspondent parts of this forecast.
Note
This report reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release . This report is subject to change, it will be reflected in daily analyses or in additional articles in Wave analysis.
It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show probable price movements.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
October 28, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 16:23 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 12:19 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
Price movement, supposed in Monthly-1107 was not confirmed. That is why in the second half of November the wave counting was adjusted (see article The Impulsive Decline of the Dollar as One of the Possible Scenarios).

Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of CHF refer to The Impulsive Decline of the Dollar as One of the Possible Scenarios.


Figure C1. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant v.imp1.

According to the first scenario forming of downward global impulse [A] is not completed yet, currently corrective wave [iv] of 5 of (5) of wave [A] is forming.
If global downward impulse [A] does not complete till the end of spring 2008 this scenario may be adjusted.

Figure C2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant v.imp1.

Supposedly, the third wave [iii] of the final impulse 5 has assumed the shape of the impulse with extensions in its third wave (iii) of [iii] and fifth one (v) of [iii]. Thus, the so-called Elliott's double retracement may form till mark 1.16 and backwards, confirming the accepted scenario indirectly.
That is why in December upward correction [iv] of 5 should be expected to complete, may be in the shape of the zigzag, and then downward impulse 5 may be expected to continue. Impulse 5 ending may be projected once its wave [iv] of 5 is completed.

Figure C3. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant v.imp.2.

According to the alternate variant global downward price movement is completed in the shape of impulse [A] and global corrective wave starts forming. Supposed ending of wave [A] is the critical level for this scenario.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
December 1, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.



Introduction
The price movement supposed in Monthly-1107 developed exactly in accordance with the forecast. The result You may see in the picture Y1.


Figure Y1. Final daily chart of November forecast, 2007.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of the JPY movement a month ago is given in the chart.

Current variant of wave counting
For the survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-07(2) and in the article The Impulsive Decline of the Dollar as One of the Possible Scenarios.

Figure Y2. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant v.diag.1.

According to the first scenario forming of a large expanded wave flat (B) of [E] is not completed yet, its downward wave C of (B) is forming in the shape of diagonal triangle, and at present corrective wave [iv] of this diagonal triangle is forming.
If expanded wave flat (B) of [E] does not complete till the end of spring 2008 this scenario may be adjusted.

Figure Y3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant v.diag.1.

Third wave [iii] of C of the possible diagonal triangle C of (B) proved to be shorter than the first wave of C, supposing wave [v] of C to be the shortest from the ongoing waves of the diagonal triangle. However its 5 ending may be projected only once wave [iv] of C is completed.
At the same time scenario with wave C of (B) in the shape of diagonal triangle supposes crossing of waves [iv] and and target for the ending of wave [iv] at around 114 mark.
That is why in December upward correction [iv] of C should be expected to complete, may be in the shape of the zigzag, and then downward diagonal triangle C of (B)may be expected to continue.

Figure Y4. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant v.imp.2.

According to the alternate variant large wave flat (B)may be completed and conclusive wave (C) of zigzag [E] starts forming. Supposed ending of wave (B) is the critical level for this scenario.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
December 1, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.



[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 16:25 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 12:20 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
Price movement, supposed in Monthly-1107 was not confirmed. That is why in the second half of November the wave counting was adjusted (see article The Impulsive Decline of the Dollar as One of the Possible Scenarios).

Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of GBP refer to The Impulsive Decline of the Dollar as One of the Possible Scenarios.


Figure G1. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant v.imp1.

According to the first scenario forming of upward global impulse [A] is not completed yet, currently corrective wave 4 of (5) of wave [A] is forming.
If global upward impulse [A] does not complete till the end of spring 2008 this scenario may be adjusted.

Figure G2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant v.imp1.

Supposedly corrective wave 4 may assume the shape of double or triple zigzag. The first zigzag [w] of 4 and wave –link [x] of 4 are completed already. Second downward zigzag [y] of 4 started to form.
That is why in December downward correction 4 should be expected to complete, may be in the shape of double zigzag, and then upward impulse 5 may be expected to continue. Impulse 5 ending may be projected once its wave 4 is completed.

Figure G3. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant v.imp2.

According to the alternate variant global upward movement is completed in the shape of impulse [A] and global corrective wave starts forming. Supposed ending of wave [A] is the critical level for this scenario.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
December 1, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.




Introduction
Price movement, supposed in Monthly-1107 was not confirmed. That is why in the second half of November the wave counting was adjusted (see article The Impulsive Decline of the Dollar as One of the Possible Scenarios).

Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of EUR refer to The Impulsive Decline of the Dollar as One of the Possible Scenarios.


Figure E1. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant v.imp1.

According to the first scenario forming of upward global impulse [A] is not completed yet, currently corrective wave [iv] of 5 of (5) of wave [A] is forming.
If global upward impulse [A] does not complete till the end of spring 2008 this scenario may be adjusted.

Figure E2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant v.imp1.

Supposedly, the third wave [iii] of the final impulse 5 has assumed the shape of the impulse with extensions in its third wave (iii) of [iii] and fifth one (v) of [iii]. Thus, the so-called Elliott's double retracement may form till mark 1.43 and backwards, confirming the accepted scenario indirectly.
That is why in December downward correction [iv] of 5 should be expected to complete, may be in the shape of the zigzag, and then upward impulse 5 may be expected to continue. Impulse 5 ending may be projected once its wave [iv] of 5 is completed.

Figure E3. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant v.imp2.

According to the alternate variant global upward movement is completed in the shape of impulse [A] and global corrective wave starts forming. Supposed ending of wave [A] is the critical level for this scenario.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
December 1, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.




Introduction
It should be noted that there are no reasons to consider the trend against the dollar completed. Moreover, the current wave picture was adjusted because of its steady fall, it was described in article The Impulsive Decline of the Dollar as One of the Possible Scenarios.
Judging by the wave picture on smaller time-frames, supposedly, local correction in favor of the dollar is urgent. Its depth may help choose one of the most probable scenarios, considered in this article.
Note
This report reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release. This report is subject to change, it will be reflected in daily analyses or in additional articles in Wave analysis.
It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show probable price movements.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
December 1, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-29 06:41 编辑 ]

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