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楼主: hefeiddd

一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 08:39 | 显示全部楼层
The wave structure of the currency pairs under consideration doesn’t rule out the beginning of a new stage of the US dollar’s strengthening in the near future. But this supposition requires confirmation.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Monthly-1208 and to the article Possible Depth of the Decline .


Figure 1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Despite the upward movement of the euro hasn’t reached the local maximum 1.4716, the completeness of the wave structure points to possibility of a reversal of the mid term trend in the favor of the dollar (decline of EUR/USD) in the nearest future. Of course this supposition requires its confirmation.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Monthly-1208 and to the article Possible Depth of the Decline .

Figure 3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1.



Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

Despite the completeness of the wave structure and readiness of the price to start a mid term upward trend there remain several quite possible alternate scenarios that allow strengthening of the dollar (decline of GBP/USD) after a short respite. We have to wait to see which variant the price will choose.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Monthly-1208 and to the article Possible Depth of the Decline .

Figure 5. Wave counting on 720 min chart. Variant 3dt.

Supposedly in order to complete downward impulse 1-2-3-4-5 the price has tp complete developing of wave 5, which might turn to be not the most well shaped impulse.
At the moment the fourth wave [iv] (or its first part) might be completed in the form of a zigzag. If this is the case it gives good chances for opening short term short positions.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Monthly-1208 and to the article Possible Depth of the Decline.

Figure 6. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Wave (X) might be completed in the shape of a zigzag. We have to wait for the confirmation or disproof of this.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
December 30, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.


[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 13:40 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 08:41 | 显示全部楼层
1) During the weekend Annual-09 and Monthly-0109 forecasts were released.
2) The wave structure of the currency pairs under consideration supposes further strengthening of the USD and  JPY after the completion of the local correction.
1.  EUR/USD

Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dz.

A new round of the US dollar’s strengthening might have begun (the decline of EUR/USD, wave (Y)), but at the moment local upward correction [ii] is developing. If this is the case  after the completion of this correction the price decline will continue.
2.  GBP/USD

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.



Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.

Supposedly the US dollar’s strengthening (the decline of GBP/USD) isn’t  completed yet, but at the moment the ending upward wave [e] of the horizontal triangle XX.  is developing. If this is the case  after its completion the price decline will continue.
3. USD/JPY

Figure 5. Wave counting on 720 min chart. Variant 3dt.



Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dt.

Supposedly in order to complete downward impulse 1-2-3-4-5 of (A) the price has to complete developing wave 5 in the form of a diagonal triangle. If this is the case after the completion of correction (b) of [v] of 5 of (A), the price decline will continue.
4.  USD/CHF

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Supposedly a new round of the US dollar’s strengthening (the rise of USD/CHF, wave (Y)), has begun, but at the moment local downward correction [ii] is developing. If this is the case after the completion of this correction the price rise will continue.
Note
Given  possible trading plans are  purely informational   purpose only   and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
January 19, 2009
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.



[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 13:46 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 08:42 | 显示全部楼层
Supposedly a new round of strengthening of the US dollar and Japanese yen continues.
1.  EUR/USD

Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Supposedly the US dollar’s strengthening (the decline of EUR/USD, wave (Y)) continues. At present the supposed impulse of A of (Y) is completing. If this is the case in the nearest future upward correction [ii] may start developing.
2.  GBP/USD

Figure 1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1.



Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.



Figure 5. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.

Supposedly the US dollar’s strengthening (the decline of GBP/USD) hasn’t completed yet. But yesterday the price broke the geometry of the supposed horizontal triangle though the current wave structure remains corrective so far. In this case it is logically to supposed that at present the ending waves of a skewed triangle XX (refer to section 3.8 of my book) are developing. If this is the case after its completion the price decline will continue.
3.  USD/JPY

Figure 6. Wave counting on 720 min chart. Variant 3dt.



Figure 7. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dt.

Supposedly in order to complete downward impulse1-2-3-4-5 of (A) the price has to complete developing wave 5 in the form of a diagonal triangle. If this is the case after the completion of correction (b) of [v] of 5 of (A), the price decline will continue.
4.  USD/CHF

Figure 8. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure 9. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Supposedly the US dollar’s strengthening (the rise of USD/CHF, wave (Y)) continues. At the moment the supposed impulse of A of (Y) is completing. If this is the case  in the nearest future downward correction [ii] may start developing.
Note
Given  possible trading plans are  purely informational   purpose only   and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
January 19, 2009
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory


[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 13:48 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 08:44 | 显示全部楼层
Supposedly a new round of strengthening of the US dollar and  Japanese yen continues.
1.  EUR/USD

Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Supposedly the US dollar’s strengthening (the decline of EUR/USD, wave (Y)) continues. At the moment the supposed impulse of A of (Y) is completing. If this is the case in the nearest future the development of upward correction [ii] should be expected.
2.  GBP/USD

Figure 3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1.



Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.



Figure 5. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.

Supposedly the US dollar’s strengthening (the decline of GBP/USD) hasn’t completed yet. At the moment the ending waves of skewed triangle XX (refer to section 3.8 of my book) are developing. If this is the case  after its completion the price decline will continue.
3.  USD/JPY

Figure 6. Wave counting on 720 min chart. Variant 3dt.



Figure 7. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dt.

Supposedly in order to complete downward impulse 1-2-3-4-5 of (A) the price has to complete developing wave 5 in the form of a diagonal triangle. If this is the case after the completion of correction (b) of [v] of 5 of (A), the price decline will continue.
4.  USD/CHF

Figure 8. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure 9. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Supposedly the US dollar’s strengthening (the rise of USD/CHF, wave (Y)) continues. At the moment the supposed impulse of A of (Y) is completing. If this is the case in the nearest future the development of downward correction [ii] should be expected.
Note
Given  possible trading plans are  purely informational   purpose only   and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
January 21, 2009
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.


[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 13:50 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 08:45 | 显示全部楼层
1) In the article released yesterday The Decline of the Canadian Dollar Continues (USD/CAD) the nearest perspectives of this currency pair were considered.
2) Supposedly a new round of strengthening of the US dollar and   and Japanese yen continues but the market enters the stage of a local correction.
1.  EUR/USD

Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Supposedly the US dollar’s strengthening (the decline of EUR/USD, wave (Y)) continues. The current wave counting doesn’t rule out that the supposed impulse of A of (Y) is completed. If this is the case in the nearest future further development of upward correction [ii] should be expected.
2.  GBP/USD

Figure 3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.



Figure 5. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.

Supposedly the US dollar’s strengthening (the decline of GBP/USD) hasn’t completed yet. At the moment the ending waves of skewed triangle XX (refer to section 3.8 of my book) are developing. If this is the case the price must rise above the 1.45 mark, and then the price decline will continue.
3.  USD/JPY

Figure 6. Wave counting on 720 min chart. Variant 3dt.



Figure 7. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dt.

Supposedly downward impulse 1-2-3-4-5 of (A) is completed. If this is the case at the moment upward correction (B) is developing.
4.  USD/CHF

Figure 8. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure 9. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Supposedly the US dollar’s strengthening (the rise of USD/CHF, wave (Y)) continues. At the moment the supposed impulse of A of (Y) is completed. If this is the case in the nearest future further development of downward correction [ii] should be expected.
5.  USD/CADIn the article released yesterday The Decline of the Canadian Dollar Continues (USD/CAD) the nearest perspectives of this currency pair were considered. Here you can see the adjusted wave counting on smaller time-frames.

Figure 10. Wave counting on 120 min USD/CAD chart.

Supposedly impulse (i) is completed. If this is the case further development of downward correction should be expected (ii).
Note
Given  possible trading plans are  purely informational   purpose only   and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
January 22, 2009
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory


[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 13:53 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 08:47 | 显示全部楼层
1) In the article The Decline of the Canadian Dollar Continues (USD/CAD) the nearest perspectives for this currency pair were considered.
2) Supposedly a new round of strengthening of the US dollar and   and Japanese yen continues but the market enters the stage of a local correction.
1.  EUR/USD

Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Supposedly the US dollar’s strengthening (the decline of EUR/USD, wave (Y)) continues. But the current wave counting doesn’t rule out that the supposed impulse of A of (Y) is completed. If this is the case in the nearest time further development of upward correction [ii] should be expected.
2.  GBP/USD

Figure 3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.



Figure 5. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.

Supposedly the US dollar’s strengthening (the decline of GBP/USD) hasn’t completed yet. But at the moment the ending waves of the skewed triangle XX.  are developing. If this is the case the price must climb above the 1.45 mark, and then the price decline will continue.
3.  USD/JPY

Figure 6. Wave counting on 720 min chart. Variant 3dt.



Figure 7. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dt.

Supposedly the downward impulse 1-2-3-4-5 of (A) is completed. If the supposition is true at the moment upward or horizontal correction (B) is developing.
4.  USD/CHF

Figure 8. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure 9. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Supposedly the US dollar’s strengthening (the rise of USD/CHF, wave (Y)) continues.It isn’t ruled out that the supposed impulse of A of (Y) is completed. If this is the case in the nearest future further development of downward correction [ii] should be expected.
5.  USD/CADIn the article The Decline of the Canadian Dollar Continues (USD/CAD) the nearest perspectives of this currency pair were considered. Here the details of the waves counting on smaller time-frames are considered.

Figure 10. Wave counting on 120 min USD/CAD chart.

Supposedly impulse (i) is completed. The wave structure of the started correction allows to suppose its nearest completion. This may be the terminus of the whole correction (ii).
But its relative sizes and small depth allow to suppose that this is only the first part of wave (ii) — zigzag a of (ii).
The confirmation of this supposition will be:
  • either upward movement of a corrective nature not higher than the 1.29 mark (wave b of (ii) — ordinary/double/triple zigzag) and then wave (ii) may assume the shape of a flat or a double three,
  • or the continuation of downward progressive movement in  zigzag form w-x-y(-x-z) in case the whole wave (ii) decides to assume the shape of a double/triple zigzag.
In this case the planned terminus of wave (ii) — the end of the next week.
Note
Given  possible trading plans are  purely informational   purpose only   and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
January 23, 2009
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.


[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 13:56 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 08:47 | 显示全部楼层
Supposedly a new round of strengthening of the US dollar and Japanese yen continues, but the market might enter the stage of a local correction.
1.  EUR/USD

Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Supposedly the US dollar’s strengthening (the decline of EUR/USD, wave (Y)) continues. But the current wave counting doesn’t rule out that the supposed impulse of A of (Y) is completed. If the supposition is true in the nearest time further development of upward correction [ii] should be expected. But so far the price is in the trend downward channel and there also remains  a real possibility of further development of downward price movement inside this channel.
2.  GBP/USD

Figure 3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1.



Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.



Figure 5. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.

Supposedly the US dollar’s strengthening (the decline of GBP/USD) hasn’t completed yet. But at the moment the ending waves of skewed triangle XX. are developing. If this is the case the price must climb to the area of the 1.45 mark, and then the price decline will continue.
3.  USD/JPY

Figure 6. Wave counting on 720 min chart. Variant 3dt.



Figure 7. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dt.

Supposedly downward impulse 1-2-3-4-5 of (A) is completed. If this is the case at the moment upward or horizontal correction (B) is developing.
4.  USD/CHF

Figure 8. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure 9. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Supposedly the US dollar’s strengthening (the rise of USD/CHF, wave (Y)) continues. It isn’t ruled out that the supposed impulse of A of (Y) is completed. If this is the case in the nearest future further development of downward correction [ii] should be expected. But so far the price is in the trend upward channel and there remains also a real possibility of further upward price movement inside the channel.
Note
Given  possible trading plans are  purely informational   purpose only   and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
January 26, 2009
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.




[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 14:01 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 08:48 | 显示全部楼层
The price of the European currencies has entered the correction stage but so so far it hasn’t reached the calculated borders. At the same time the current completeness of the wave structure doesn’t rule out the completion of the whole stage of the correction (or its first part) in the nearest future. Moreover at the moment the price is near the border of the trend channel of these currencies. All these facts warn about possible beginning of a new round of the US dollar’s strengthening in the nearest future. If this is the case it can lead to further development of a narrow trend channel without explicit corrections on bigger time frames (refer to Figures 2-29 and 2-30 of my book).
1.  EUR/USD

Figure 1. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Upward movement of the last days at the moment represents an ordinary zigzag [ii]?. If the price doesn’t transform it into upward impulse (a) of [ii], further price decline is more than probable.
2.  GBP/USD

Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.

Upward movement of the last days at the moment represents an ordinary zigzag that with some strains can be taken for wave [e] or one of corrections of the developing downward impulse (grey trend channel). If the price doesn’t transform this zigzag into upward impulse (a) of [e],  further price decline is more than probable.
3.  USD/JPY

Figure 3. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dt.

Upward movement of the last days at the moment can represents an ordinary zigzag (a)-(b)-(c). If this is the case further price decline is quite possible.
4.  USD/CHF

Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Downward movement of the last days at the moment represents an ordinary zigzag [ii]?. If the price doesn’t transform it into downward impulse (a) of [ii], further price rise is more than probable.
5.  USD/CADIn the article The Decline of the Canadian Dollar Continues (USD/CAD) the nearest prospects of this currency pair were considered. Here the details of the wave counting on the smaller time frames are considered.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 120 min USD/CAD chart.

Supposedly double zigzag (ii) is completed. In the framework of the accepted scenario the price has only two possible variants — either to begin immediately developing of the supposed upward wave (iii), or to continue developing of downward triple zigzag (ii).
In the first case good prospects for long positions open. The critical level in this case will be the supposed ending of wave (ii).
Note
Given  possible trading plans are  purely informational   purpose only   and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
January 27, 2009
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.


[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 14:03 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 08:49 | 显示全部楼层
The current completeness of the wave structure and the fact that the price is near the border of the trend channel don’t rule out that a new round of the US dollar’s strengthening is beginning. If this is the case it may lead to further development of a narrow trend channel without explicit corrections on bigger time frames (refer to Figures 2-29 and 2-30 of my book).
1.  EUR/USD

Figure 1. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Upward movement of the last days at the moment represents an ordinary zigzag [ii]?. If the price doesn’t transform it into  upward impulse (a) of [ii], further price decline is more than probable. It gives good chances for short positions.
2.  GBP/USD

Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.



Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

Upward movement of the last days at the moment represents an ordinary zigzag which with some strains can be taken for wave [e] or one of corrections of the developing downward impulse (grey trend channel). If the price doesn’t transform this zigzag into upward impulse (a) of [e], further price decline is more than probable. It gives good chances for short positions.
3.  USD/JPY

Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dt.

Upward movement of the last days at the moment may represent ordinary zigzag (a)-(b)-(c). If this is the case further price decline is quite possible. It gives good chances for short positions.
4.  USD/CHF

Figure 5. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Downward movement of the last days at the moment represents ordinary zigzag [ii]?. If the price doesn’t transform it into downward impulse (a) of [ii], further price rise is more than probable. It gives good chances for long positions.
5.  USD/CADIn the article The Decline of the Canadian Dollar Continues (USD/CAD) the nearest prospects of this currency pair were considered. The details of the wave counting on the smaller time frames are considered here.

Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min USD/CAD chart.

It isn’t ruled out that the supposed wave (ii) has developed in  the form of a triple zigzag. If this is the case  the first waves of upward wave (iii) has already started developing. It gives good chances for long positions. But one shouldn’t forget that this supposition requires its confirmation.
Note
Given  possible trading plans are  purely informational   purpose only   and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
January 28, 2009
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.


[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 14:05 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 08:49 | 显示全部楼层
1) Forecast for February 2009 is planned to be released this weekend.
2) The current completeness of the wave structure and the fact that the price is near the border of the trend channel don’t  rule out further strengthening of the US dollar. In this case further development of a narrow trend channel without explicit corrections on bigger time frames is possible (refer to Figures 2-29 and 2-30 of my book).
At the same time a more common variant with a rather deep correction before the beginning of a new round of the US dollar’s strengthening, which is given in  this forecast is quite possible.
1.  EUR/USD

Figure 1.Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Upward movement of the last days may be represented in the form of an impulse. If this is the case in the mid term further development of upward correction  [ii] in the form of a zigzag should be expected.
2.  GBP/USD

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.



Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.

Upward movement of the last days may be represented in the form of an impulse. If this is the case in the mid term further development of upward correction [e] in the form of a zigzag should be expected.
3.  USD/JPY

Figure 5. Wave counting on 720 min chart. Variant 3dt.



Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dt.

It isn’t ruled out that sicne the middle of the last December horizontal correction (B) is developing. If this is the case further development of upward wave C of (B) in the form of a zigzag should be expected.
4.  USD/CHF

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Downward movement of the last days may be represented in the form of an impulse. If this is the case in the mid term further development of downward or horizontal correction [ii] in the form of a zigzag or double three should be expected.
Note
Given  possible trading plans are  purely informational   purpose only   and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
January 29, 2009
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.



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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 08:50 | 显示全部楼层
1) Forecast for February 2009 is planned to be released this weekend.
2) Supposedly before the beginning of a new round of the US dollar’s strengthening the price has to complete a large correction in the form of a zigzag. The details are considered in this forecast.
1.  EUR/USD

Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Correction [ii] might be assuming the shape of an upward zigzag. If this is the case in order to complete this zigzag the price has to develop the last leg (c) of [ii]. In this case traders who opened short positions in accordance with my recommendations (refer to Daily-290109 and Daily-280109), it is high time to think of reversing positions.
2.  GBP/USD

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.



Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.

Correction [e] might be assuming the shape of a narrow upward zigzag. If this is the case in order to complete this zigzag the price has to develop the last leg (c) of [ii].
3.  USD/JPY

Figure 5. Wave counting on 720 min chart. Variant 3dt.



Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dt.

It isn’t ruled out that since the middle of the last December horizontal correction (B) is developing. If this is the case further development of upward wave C of (B) in the form of a zigzag should be expected. In order to complete this zigzag the price has to develop the last leg [c] of C of (B).
4.  USD/CHF

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Correction [ii] might be assuming the shape of a downward zigzag. If this is the case  in order to complete this zigzag the price has to develop the last leg (c) of [ii]. In this case traders who opened long positions in accordance with  my recommendations (refer to Daily-290109 and Daily-280109), it is high time to think of reversing positions.
5.  USD/CADIn the article The Decline of the Canadian Dollar Continues (USD/CAD) the nearest prospects for this currency pair were considered. The details of the wave counting on  the smaller time frames are considered .

Figure 9. Wave counting on 120 min USD/CAD chart.

The price has reached the lower border of the projected range near the 78% mark having developed the supposed wave (ii) in the shape of a triple zigzag. If this is the case the first waves of upward wave (iii) have started to develop. It gives good chances for long positions. But one shouldn’t forget that this supposition requires confirmation.
Note
Given  possible trading plans are  purely informational   purpose only   and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
January 30, 2009
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.


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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 08:50 | 显示全部楼层
1) Forecast for  February 2009 was released on Saturday.
2) Supposedly there are two most probable scenarios:
  • immediate continuation of strengthening of the US dollar and yen;
  • the completion of a large correction directed against the dollar and yen and only after that further strengthening.
WE have to wait to see which of the scenarios the price will choose.
1.  EUR/USD

Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.

In the Figure two most probable scenarios from my point of view are shown. The choice of one of them will be determined by the depth of the expected upward correction.
2.  GBP/USD

Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

The choice of one of the possible scenarios will be determined by the depth of the expected upward correction.
3.  USD/JPY

Figure 3. Wave counting on 720 min chart. Variant 3dt.

Further adjustment of the wave counting will depend on the height of the terminus of the developing correction.
4.  USD/CHF

Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.

In the Figure two most probable scenarios from my point of view are shown. The choice of one of them will be determined by the depth of the expected downward correction.
Note
Given  possible trading plans are  purely informational   purpose only   and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
February 2, 2009
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory


[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 14:17 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 08:51 | 显示全部楼层
The US dollar’s strengthening continues. Possible scenarios are considered in   this forecast.
1.  EUR/USD

Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure 2. Wave counting on 60 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Without canceling variants considered earlier I would like to note that until the price is in the trend channel there remains a probability that the downtrend will preserve.
2.  GBP/USD

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.



Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.

It isn’t ruled out that wave [e] is completed. We have to expect the confirmation or disproof of this.
3.  USD/JPY

Figure 5. Wave counting on 720 min chart. Variant 3dt.



Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dt.

Supposedly wave 2 is assuming the shape of a flat, demonstrating guideline  of alternation among internal waves: Simple-Complicated-Most Complicated (refer to table 4-2 of my book). We have to expect the confirmation or disproof of this.
4.  USD/CHF

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure 8. Wave counting on 60 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Without canceling variants considered earlier I’d like to note that until the price is in the trend channel there is a probability that the uptrend will preserve.
Note
Given  possible trading plans are  purely informational   purpose only   and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
February 3, 2009
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.



[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 14:38 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 08:52 | 显示全部楼层
The US dollar’s strengthening continues but   at  the moment a short-term pause takes place — the price is developing an extended correction. Possible scenarios for nearest events are considered in  this forecast.
1.  EUR/USD

Figure 1. Wave counting 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure 2. Wave counting 120 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Supposedly the price is developing wave (iv) in the form of an extended correction (refer to section 3.8. of my book). If this is the case combined with the depth and shape of the preceding correction (ii) it may speak indirectly of the development of downward impulse or A, and not a zigzag.
2.  GBP/USD

Figure 3. Wave counting 480 min chart. Variant 1.



Figure 4. Wave counting 120 min chart. Variant 1.

The scenario of the nearest price movement synchronous with the other currencies under consideration supposes further development of the ending wave [e] of skewed triangle XX in the form of a zigzag with wave-link (b) of [e] in the form of an extended correction (refer to section 3.8. of my book).
3.  USD/JPY

Figure 5. Wave counting 720 min chart. Variant 3dt.



Figure 6. Wave counting 120 min chart. Variant 3dt.

It isn’t ruled out that the price is developing wave (B) in the form of an extended correction (refer to section 3.8. of my book). In this case this stockade of waves that has been developing since the end of January may be presented in the form of upward double or triple zigzag C of (B).
4.  USD/CHF

Figure 7. Wave counting 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure 8. Wave counting 120 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Supposedly the price is developing wave (iv) in the form of an extended correction (refer to section 3.8. of my book). If this is the case combined with the depth and shape of the preceding correction (ii) it may speal indirectly of the development of upward impulse or A, and not a zigzag.
Note
Given  possible trading plans are  purely informational   purpose only   and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
February 4, 2009
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.


[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 14:43 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 08:52 | 显示全部楼层
The US dollar’s strengthening continues. Possible scenarios of the nearest events are considered in  this forecast.
1.  EUR/USD

Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Supposedly the price is developing wave (iv) in the form of an extended correction (refer to section 3.8. of my book). If this is the case combined with the depth and shape of the preceding correction (ii) it may speak indirectly of the development of downward impulse or A, and not a zigzag.
At the same time the alternate variant doesn’t rule out that wave (iv) has completed already having assumed the shape of a double three.
2.  GBP/USD

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.



Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.

Supposedly skewed triangle XX.  is developing. Without canceling the variant considered yesterday (refer to Daily-040109), it should be noted that one of the possible scenarios assumes that this triangle is completed already.
3.  USD/JPY

Figure 5. Wave counting on 720 min chart. Variant 3dt.



Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dt.

It isn’t ruled out that the price is developing wave (B) in the form of an extended correction (refer to section 3.8. of my book). Without cancelling the variant considered yesterday (refer to Daily-040109), it should be noted that one of possible scenarios assumes that wave (B) is completed yet.
4.  USD/CHF

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Supposedly the price is developing wave (iv) in the form of an extended correction (refer to section 3.8. of my book). If this is the case combined with the depth and shape of the preceding correction (ii) it may speak indirectly about the development of upward impulse or A, and not a zigzag.
At the same time the alternate variant doesn’t  rule out that wave (iv) is completed having assumed the shape of a double three.
Note
Given  possible trading plans are  purely informational   purpose only   and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
February 5, 2009
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.


[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 14:45 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 08:53 | 显示全部楼层
The US dollar’s strengthening continues. Possible variants of scenarios of the nearest events are considered in this forecast.
1.  EUR/USD

Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Supposedly the price is developing wave (iv) in the form of an extended correction (refer to section 3.8. of my book). If this is the case combined with the depth and shape of the preceding correction (ii) it may speak of the development of downward impulse or A, and not a zigzag.
At the same time the alternate variant doesn’t rule out that wave (iv) is completed, having assumed the shape of a double three. There remains for us one of these variants.
2. GBP/USD

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.



Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.

Supposedly skewed triangle XX,  is developing as a particular case of an extended correction (refer to section 3.8. of my book). There remains for us to expect the confirmation of its completion.
3.  USD/JPY

Figure 5. Wave counting on 720 min chart. Variant 3dt.



Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dt.

It isn’t ruled out that the price is developing wave (B) in the form of an extended correction (refer to section 3.8. of my book). There remains for us to expect the confirmation of its completion.
4.  USD/CHF

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Supposedly the price os developing wave (iv) in the form of an extended correction (refer to section 3.8. of my book). If this is the case combined with the depth and shape of the preceding correction (ii) it may speak of the development of upward impulse or A, and not a zigzag.
At the same time the alternate variant doesn’t rule out that wave (iv) is completed having assumed the shape of a double three. There remains to expect the confirmation of one of these variants.
Note
Given  possible trading plans are  purely informational   purpose only   and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
February 6, 2009
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.


[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 14:46 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 08:53 | 显示全部楼层
After the completion of the current correction most likely a new round of the US dollar’s strengthening will begin. Possible scenarios of the nearest events are considered in this forecast.
1.  EUR/USD

Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Supposedly the price develops wave (iv) in the form of an extended correction (refer to section 3.8. of my book). If this is the case  combined with the depth and shape of the preceding correction (ii) it may speak indirectly of the development of downward impulse or A, and not a zigzag.
2.  GBP/USD

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.



Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.

Supposedly skewed triangle XX,  is developing as a particular case of an extended correction (refer to section 3.8. of my book). There remains for us to expect the confirmation of its completion.
3.  USD/JPY

Figure 5. Wave counting on 720 min chart. Variant 3dt.



Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dt.

It isn’t ruled out that the price is developing wave (B) in the form of an extended correction (refer to section 3.8. of my book). There remains for us to expect the confirmation of its completion.
4.  USD/CHF

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Supposedly the price is developing wave (iv) in the form of an extended correction (refer to section 3.8. of my book). If this is the case combined with the depth and shape of the preceding correction (ii) it may speak indirectly of the development of upward impulse or A, and not a zigzag.
Note
Given  possible trading plans are  purely informational   purpose only   and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
February 9, 2009
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.



[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 14:50 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 08:54 | 显示全部楼层
Yesterday the currency pairs under consideration moved mixed. EUR and  CHF weakened against the USD but  relatively modest price movement of the pound and yen so far doesn’t allow to speak of the beginning of a new round of the US dollar’s strengthening. Possible scenarios of the nearest events are considered in this forecast.
1.  EUR/USD

Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Yesterday the price broke the geometry of the supposed triangle that may speak either of  the completion of the extended correction or of an increase in its duration. As the local strengthening of the dollar has covered not all the currency pairs under consideration the second variant given in the Figure is more probable.
Thus supposedly the price continues developing wave (iv) in the form of an extended correction of a big size (refer to section 3.8. of my book). If this is the case combined with  the depth and shape of the preceding correction (ii) it may speak indirectly of the development of downward impulse or A, and not a zigzag.
2.  GBP/USD

Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

Supposedly skewed triangle XX,  is developing as a particular case of an extended correction (refer to section 3.8. of my book). There remains for us to expect the confirmation of its completion.
3.  USD/JPY

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dt.

It isn’t ruled out that the price is developing wave (B) in the form of an extended correction (refer to section 3.8. of my book). There remains for us to expect the confirmation of its completion.
4.  USD/CHF

Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Yesterday the price completed the supposed skewed triangle. But as the local strengthening of the dollar has covered not all the currency pairs under consideration most likely the duration of the correction itself is increasing that is reflected in the given Figure.
Thus supposedly the price continues developing wave (iv) in the form of an extended correction (refer to section 3.8. of my book). If this is the case combined with the depth and  shape of the preceding correction (ii) it may speak indirectly of the development of upward impulse or A, and not a zigzag.
Note
Given  possible trading plans are  purely informational   purpose only   and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
February 10, 2009
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.



[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 15:01 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 08:55 | 显示全部楼层
The US dollar and  Japanese yen began to strengthen their positions against the currencies under consideration. Possible scenarios are considered in  this forecast.
1.  EUR/USD

Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Supposedly the price is developing wave (iv) in the form of a horizontal triangle as a particular case of the extended correction (refer to section 3.8. of my book). If this is the case combined with the depth and shape of the preceding correction (ii) it may speak indirectly of the development of downward impulse or A, and not a zigzag.
In order to complete the supposed horizontal triangle (iv) the price has to build up its ending wave e of (iv).
2.  GBP/USD

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.



Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.

Supposedly skewed triangle XX is completed. If this is the case progressive downward price movement will continue in the form of zigzag wave Z.
3.  USD/JPY

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dt.



Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dt.

It isn’t ruled out that the price is developing wave (B) in the form of a horizontal triangle as a particular case of the extended correction (refer to section 3.8. of my book). There remains for us to expect the confirmation of its completion.
4.  USD/CHF

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Supposedly the price is developing wave (iv) in the form of a skewed triangle as a particular case of the extended correction (refer to section 3.8. of my book). If this is the case combined with the depth and the shape of the preceding correction (ii) it may speak indirectly of the development of upward impulse or A, and not a zigzag.
In order to complete the supposed horizontal triangle (iv) the price has to build up its ending wave e of (iv).
Note
Given  possible trading plans are  purely informational   purpose only   and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
February 11, 2009
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.


[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-29 07:44 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 08:55 | 显示全部楼层
The US dollar and  Japanese yen continue strengthening their positions against the currencies under consideration, but  so far it happens within  an almost horizontal correction. Possible scenarios are considered in  this forecast.
1. EUR/USD

Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Supposedly the price is developing wave (iv) in the form of a horizontal triangle as a particular case of the extended correction (refer to section 3.8. of my book). If this is the case combined with the depth and shape of the preceding correction (ii) it may speak indirectly of the development of downward impulse or A, and not a zigzag.
In order to complete the supposed horizontal triangle (iv) the price has to build up its ending wave e of (iv).
2.  GBP/USD

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.



Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.

Supposedly skewed triangle XX is completed. If this is the case progressive downward price movement will continue in the form of zigzag wave Z.
3.  USD/JPY

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dt.



Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dt.

It isn’t ruled out that the price is developing wave (B) in the form of a horizontal triangle as a particular case of the extended correction (refer to section 3.8. of my book). We have to expect the confirmation of its completion.
4.  USD/CHF

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dz.

Supposedly the price is developing wave (iv) in the form of a skewed triangle as a particular case of the extended correction (refer to section 3.8. of my book). If this is the case combined with the depth and shape of the preceding correction (ii) it may speak indirectly of the development of upward impulse or A, and not a zigzag.
In order to complete the supposed horizontal triangle (iv) the price has to build up its ending wave e of (iv).
Note
Given  possible trading plans are  purely informational   purpose only   and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
February 12, 2009
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory


[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-29 07:45 编辑 ]

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