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楼主: hefeiddd

一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 12:23 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
The Elliott’s double retracement supposed in Monthly-1207 was executed exactly in accordance with the forecast. The result You may see in Figure C1.


Figure C1. Final daily chart of December 2007 - January 2008 forecast.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of CHF movement two months ago is given in the chart.

The current wave counting
For the survey CHF wave counting refer to Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual WA for 2008).

Figure C2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1.

The fourth wave [iv] of impulse C may have begun to form. But so far there is no confirmation that wave [iii] of C has completed to form.
The detailed wave counting on the smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans can be seen in the daily forecasts.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
January 21, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.



Introduction
The reversal of local trend in the area of 114 mark supposed in Monthly-1207 was implemented exactly in accordance with the forecast. The result can be seen in Figure Y1.


Fig.Y1. Final daily chart of December 2007 -January 2008 forecast

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of JPY movement two months ago is given in the chart.

Current wave counting
For the survey JPY wave counting refer to Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual WA for 2008).

Figure Y2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1.

The upward wave (C) may have started to form. But so far there is no confirmation of the completion of the diagonal triangle C of (B). The 103.91 mark is a critical level for it (see the article Possible Trade with an Excellent Profit/Risk Ratio).
The detailed wave counting on the smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans can be seen in the daily forecasts.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
January 21, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.




Introduction
The price decline supposed in Monthly-1207 remained within the forecast. The result can be seen in Figure G1.


Figure G1. Final daily chart of December 2007 - January 2008 forecast.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of GBP movement two months ago is given in the chart.

Current wave counting
For the survey GBP wave counting refer to Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual WA for 2008).

Figure G2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1.

The fourth wave [iv] of impulse A may have begun to form. But so far there is no confirmation of the completion of wave [iii] of A.
The detailed wave counting on the smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans can be seen in the daily forecasts.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
January 21, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.




Introduction
The Elliott’s double retracement supposed in Monthly-1207 was implemented exactly in accordance with the forecast. The result you may see in Figure E1.


Figure E1. Final daily chart of December 2007 - January 2008 forecast.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of EUR movement two months ago is given in the chart.

The current wave counting
For the survey EUR wave counting refer to Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual WA for 2008).

Figure E2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1.

The fourth wave [iv] of impulse C may have started to form. But so far there is no confirmation of the completion of wave [iii] of C.
The detailed wave counting on the smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans can be seen in the daily forecasts.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
January 21, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.




Introduction
The wave picture on the bigger time-frames suggests a reversal of trend in the near term and the beginning of the dollar’s consolidation phase. The depth of this consolidation will determine the further long term scenario for the currency pairs under considerationр (see Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual WA for 2008)).
The details of the reversal possible scenarios are considered in the corresponding sceations.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
January 21, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-29 06:43 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 12:25 | 显示全部楼层
The current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of CHF refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008).


Figure C1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1.

Wave [iii] may have completed and the fourth wave [iv] of impulse C may have started forming. If the supposition confirms correction [iv] may last until the second half of April 2008. Perhaps the structure of its first waves will give a cue what shape it will assume.
As so far there is no confirmation of the completion of wave [iii] of C, the alternate variant isn’t ruled out yet (refer to the Figure below).

Figure C2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Alternative variant .

As an alternative within the limits of scenario v.1 it is possible to suggest that wave (v) will form in the form of the second extension of impulse [iii]. Such a variant is rare, but quite possible taking into consideration negative fundamental indicators for the US dollar.
As a similar example of an impulse with two extensions impulse (iii) in the same Figure can be considered (refer to section 2.2.4. of my book).
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
February 2, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.



The current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of JPY refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008).


Figure Y1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1.

Upward wave (C) may have started to form. But so far there is no confirmation of the completion of diagonal triangle C of (B). The critical level for it is the 103.91 mark (refer to the article Possible Trade with an Excellent Profit-Risk Correlation ).

Figure Y2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Alternative variant .

As an alternative within the limits of scenario v.1 the descending diagonal triangle may continue forming. In this case the ending of wave [iv] may form in the area of the first target 113 (refer to the article Possible Trade with an Excellent Profit-Risk Correlation ).
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
February 2, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.




The current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of GBP refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008).


Figure G1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1.

Wave [iv] may have completed and the ending wave [v] of impulse A? may have started to form.
But it is also quite possible that wave [iii] will continue to form (this variant is plotted in the bottom section of the chart). The price movement according to this scenario is more synchronous with the other European currencies. If this supposition confirms wave А? may last until the second half of April 2008.

Figure G2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Alternative variant.

Taking into consideration negative fundamental indicators for the US dollar as an alternative it is possible to suggest that wave [iv] will continue to form in the shape of a zigzag construction.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
February 2, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.




The current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of EUR refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008).


Figure E1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1.

Wave [iii] may have completed and the fourth wave [iv] of impulse may have begun to form. If the supposition confirms correction [iv] may last until the second half of April 2008. Perhaps the structure of its first waves will give a cue what shape it will assume.
As so far there is no confirmation of the completion of wave [iii] of C, an alternate variant isn’t ruled out yet (refer to the Figure below).

Figure E2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Alternative variant.

As an alternative within the limits of scenario v.1 it is possible to suggest that wave (v) will form in the form of the second extension of impulse [iii]. Such a variant is rare, but quite possible taking into consideration negative fundamental indicators for the US dollar.
As a similar example of an impulse with two extensions impulse (iii) in the same Figure can be considered (refer to section 2.2.4. of my book).
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
February 2, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.



Introduction
The wave picture on bigger time frames supposes the trend reversal in the near term and the beginning of the US dollar consolidation phase. The depth of this consolidation will determine the further long –term scenario of the currency pairs under consideration (refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)).
The details of possible scenarios of the reversal are considered in the corresponding sections.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
February 2, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-29 06:46 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 13:35 | 显示全部楼层
The current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of CHF refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article USD. A pause or the end of the black streak?.


Figure C1.Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1.

The wave structure doesn’t rule out that wave [v] of C is close to its completion unless it decides to form an extension. The weak point of this counting is the fact that the length of wave [iv] of C is less than the length of wave [ii] of C.
The confirmation of the completion of impulse С will allow to make possible scenarios of further price movement more precise.

Figure C2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1-2.

As an alternative within the framework of scenario v.1 we may suppose that only third wave [iii] is completing. In this case correction [iv] may last until the second half of April. But a running triangle (iv) of [iii] is a rare variant of the so called truncated triangle (a pattern in which two last waves are either absent or incomparably small against its firs waves), that doesn’t allow to bring this variant to the forefront.
The details of possible scenarios of reversal are considered in the corresponding sections.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
March 2, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.




The current variant of the wave counting
For survey wave counting of JPY refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article USD. A pause or the end of the black streak?.


Figure Y1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1.

If wave С in the shape of a diagonal triangle is forming then at the moment its third wave must be completing. In this case price rise in a corrective mode to the 110-112 marks should be expected in the near term.

Figure Y2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Persepective variant.

But in the article USD. A pause or the end of the black streak? the variant with a downward zigzag which is close to its completion was considered in detail.
The confirmation of this scenario should be expected this month.
The details of possible scenarios of reversal are considered in the corresponding sections.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
March 2, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.




The current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of GBP refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article USD. A pause or the end of the black streak?.


Figure G1.Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1.

Downward impulse A? may be completed. In this case the weakening of the pound may be synchronous with the other currency pairs under consideration.

Figure G2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1-2.

But it isn’t ruled out that only wave [iv] of A is completing. In this case forming of a downward ending wave [v] in the shape of an impulse or a diagonal triangle should be expected.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
March 2, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.





The current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of EUR refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article USD. A pause or the end of the black streak?.


Figure E1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1.

The wave structure doesn’t rule out that wave [v] of C is close to its completion unless it decides to form an extension. The weak point of this counting is the fact that the length of wave [iv] of C is less than the length of wave [ii] of C.
The confirmation of the completion of impulse С will allow to make possible scenarios of the further price movement more precise.

Figure E2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1-2.

The wave structure doesn’t rule out that wave [v] of C is close to its completion unless it decides to form an extension. The weak point of this counting is the fact that the length of wave [iv] of C is less than the length of wave [ii] of C.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
March 2, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.


Introduction
The wave picture on the bigger time frames supposes the trend reversal in the near term and the beginning of the US dollar consolidation phase. The depth of this consolidation will determine the further long –term scenario of the currency pairs under consideration. (refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)) and the article USD. A pause or the end of the back streak?. The details of possible scenarios of reversal are considered in the corresponding sections.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
February 2, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-29 06:50 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 16:56 | 显示全部楼层
The current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of CHF refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article USD. A pause or the end of the black streak?.


Figure C1.Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1.

The wave structure doesn’t rule out that wave [v] of C is close to its completion unless it decides to form an extension. The weak point of this counting is the fact that the length of wave [iv] of C is less than the length of wave [ii] of C.
The confirmation of the completion of impulse С will allow to make possible scenarios of further price movement more precise.

Figure C2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1-2.

As an alternative within the framework of scenario v.1 we may suppose that only third wave [iii] is completing. In this case correction [iv] may last until the second half of April. But a running triangle (iv) of [iii] is a rare variant of the so called truncated triangle (a pattern in which two last waves are either absent or incomparably small against its firs waves), that doesn’t allow to bring this variant to the forefront.
The details of possible scenarios of reversal are considered in the corresponding sections.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
March 2, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.


The current variant of the wave counting
For survey wave counting of JPY refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article USD. A pause or the end of the black streak?.


Figure Y1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1.

If wave С in the shape of a diagonal triangle is forming then at the moment its third wave must be completing. In this case price rise in a corrective mode to the 110-112 marks should be expected in the near term.

Figure Y2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Persepective variant.

But in the article USD. A pause or the end of the black streak? the variant with a downward zigzag which is close to its completion was considered in detail.
The confirmation of this scenario should be expected this month.
The details of possible scenarios of reversal are considered in the corresponding sections.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
March 2, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.


The current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of GBP refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article USD. A pause or the end of the black streak?.


Figure G1.Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1.

Downward impulse A? may be completed. In this case the weakening of the pound may be synchronous with the other currency pairs under consideration.

Figure G2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1-2.

But it isn’t ruled out that only wave [iv] of A is completing. In this case forming of a downward ending wave [v] in the shape of an impulse or a diagonal triangle should be expected.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
March 2, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.




The current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of EUR refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article USD. A pause or the end of the black streak?.


Figure E1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1.

The wave structure doesn’t rule out that wave [v] of C is close to its completion unless it decides to form an extension. The weak point of this counting is the fact that the length of wave [iv] of C is less than the length of wave [ii] of C.
The confirmation of the completion of impulse С will allow to make possible scenarios of the further price movement more precise.

Figure E2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1-2.

The wave structure doesn’t rule out that wave [v] of C is close to its completion unless it decides to form an extension. The weak point of this counting is the fact that the length of wave [iv] of C is less than the length of wave [ii] of C.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
March 2, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.



[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-29 06:56 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 16:58 | 显示全部楼层
The current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of CHF refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008).


Figure C1. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3.

In the latter article it was explained why scenario v.3 considered previously is preferred at the moment. In the framework of this scenario downward impulse 3 of (3) of [C] may be forming.

Figure C1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3.

Wave counting on the daily time frame doesn’t rule out the completion of wave (iii) of [v] of 3. If this is the case correction (iv) may last till the second half of April.
The critical level is the ending of the supposed wave (i) of [v] of 3 (1.0836).
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
March 30, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.



The current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of JPY refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008).


Figure Y1. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3.

In the latter article it was explained why scenario v.3 considered previously is preferred at the moment. In the framework of this scenario downward impulse (or diagonal triangle) V may be forming.

Figure Y2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3.

Wave counting on the daily time frame doesn’t rule out the completion of wave 3 of (3). If this is the case correction 4 of (3) may last till the second half of April.
The critical level is the ending of the supposed wave 1 of (3) (104.96) and the ending of the supposed wave (1) of [3] (107.19).
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
March 30, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory




The current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of GBP refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008).


Figure G1. Wave counting on the weekly chart.

In the latter article it was supposed that if the GBP/USD pair rises synchronously with other major currencies the preferred scenario will be further forming of upward impulse (C) in the form of an impulse or diagonal triangle 5 of (C).

Figure G2. Wave counting on the daily chart.

Wave counting on the daily time frame doesn’t rule out the completion of either wave (i) of [iii] of 5 of the impulse or wave of 5 of the diagonal triangle. If this is the case correction (ii) of impulse (or [ii] diagonal triangle) may last till the second half of April.
The critical level is the ending of the supposed wave [ii] of 5 (1.9361) and the ending of the supposed wave 4 (1.9336).
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
March 30, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory




The current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of EUR refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008).


Figure E 1. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3.

In the latter article the explanation why scenario v.3 considered previously is preferred at the moment. In the framework of this scenario upward impulse 3 of (3) of [C] may be forming.

Figure E2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3.

Wave counting on the daily time frame doesn’t rule out the completion of wave (iii) of [v] of 3. If this is the case correction (iv) may last till the second half of April.
The critical level is the ending of the supposed wave (i) of [v] of 3 (1.4822).
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
March 30, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.




Introduction
The depth of the dollar’s strengthening proved to be rather insignificant bringing to the forefront scenario v.3 (refer to The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)) and the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008)).
The details of possible scenarios of reversal are considered in the corresponding sections.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
March 30, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-29 06:57 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 17:01 | 显示全部楼层
The current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of CHF refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008).


Figure C1. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3.

In the framework of scenario v.3 a downward impulse 3 of (3) of [C] may be forming.

Figure C2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3.

At the moment corrective wave (iv) of [v] of 3 is completing. The following arguments can be given in the favor of this supposition:
  • the completeness of the wave structure of wave (iv) of [v] of 3 — a proportional zigzag a-b-c of (iv) of [v] of 3 is formed.
  • the price broke the border of the trend channel of impulse [v] of 3.
  • corrective waves of the supposed impulse [v] of 3 demonstrate the alternation by the depth and shape (wave (ii) — expanding wave flat 37%, wave (iv) — zigzag and reached the 62% mark).
  • oscillator MACD 5-34-5 went to the positive territory.
The ending of the supposed wave (i) of [v] of 3 (1.0836) remains the critical level.
If the supposition of the completion of wave (iv) of [v] of 3 is confirmed in the nearest future the projection of the ending of wave (v) of [v] of 3 should be looked for in the area of the 0.95 value (if wave (v) of [v] of 3 doesn’t decide to form an extension). Otherwise the accepted scenario should be reconsidered.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
May 3, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.


The current variant of the wave counting
For survey wave counting of JPY refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008).


Figure Y1. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3.

In the framework of scenario v.3 a downward impulse may be forming (or a diagonal triangle) V.

Figure Y2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3.

At the present corrective wave 4 of (3) of [3] of V is completing. The following arguments can be given in the favor of this supposition:
  • the completeness of the wave structure of wave 4 of (3) — the double proportional zigzag w-x-y of 4 of (3) is formed.
  • the price broke the border of the trend channel of the impulse (3).
  • corrective waves of the supposed impulse (3) demonstrate the alternation by depth (wave 2 — 36%, wave 4 — approached the 78% mark).
  • oscillator MACD 5-34-5 went to the positive territory.
Moreover the price raided into the territory of wave 1. Of course short-term intercross of wave 1 and 4of an impulse is allowed on marginal markets but direct attention to the alternation of corrections on the given downward section of the chart by their inclination and depth:
  • wave [2] — almost horizontal, not deep.
  • wave (2) of [3] — with inclination of 45 grades, deep.
  • wave 2 of (3) of [3] — almost horizontal, not deep.
  • wave 4 of (3) of [3] — with inclination of 45 grades, very deep.
Such a wave structure, maximum depth of the last correction 4 of (3) and the price movement to the critical level (108.58) suggest the alternate variant of forming of the downward wave V in the shape of a diagonal triangle (refer to the Figure below).

Figure Y3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-dt..

In this case almost horizontal corrections are wave-links inside zigzags [1] and [3]. While steeper correction unite these zigzags in a large downward diagonal triangle (wave [2] and [4]).
In case the price approaches the 108 mark the chances of the alternate diagonal triangle will increase considerably while in case the price breaks the critical level at 108.58 it will be brought to the forefront.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
May 3, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.




The current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of GBP refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008).


Figure G1. Wave counting on the weekly chart.

The price is reluctant to go up forming since the end of the last year the successive set of zigzags and spittering them virtually. That’s why without canceling the scenario considered in the preceding forecast (refer to Monthly-0408), I would like to consider a rather perspective variant with a large horizontal triangle.
Supposedly wave 4 of (C) is completed. The following argument can be given in the favor of this supposition :
  • the completeness of the wave structure of wave 4 — a contracting horizontal triangle is formed.
  • the price is near the border of the trend channel of impulse (C).
  • corrective waves of the supposed impulse (C) demonstrate alternation by depth and shape (wave 2 — zigzag 89%, wave 4 — horizontal triangle 39%).
  • oscillator MACD 5-34-5 went to the negative territory.
The ending of the supposed wave [a] of 4 (1.9336) is the critical level.

Figure G2. Wave counting on the daily chart.

Unfortunately so far there is no confirmation of the completion of this triangle. Consequently the price may continue further development of its ending structure and rewrite the endings of waves [c], [d] и [e] of 4.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
May 3, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.




The current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of EUR refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008).


Figure E1. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3.

In the framework of scenario v.3 upward impulse 3 of (3) of [C] may be forming.

Figure E2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3.

At the present corrective wave (iv) of [v] of 3 is completing. The following arguments can be given:
  • the completion of the wave structure of wave (iv) of [v] of 3 — a pattern is formed that on the given time frame can be considered a proportional flat a-b-c of (iv) of [v] of 3.
  • the price broke the border of the trend channel of impulse [v] of 3.
  • corrective waves of the supposed impulse [v] of 3 demonstrate the alternation by depth (wave (ii) — 75%, wave (iv) — reached only the 38% mark).
  • oscillator MACD 5-34-5 went to the negative territory.
The ending of the supposed wave (i) of [v] of 3 (1.4822) remains the critical level.
If the supposition of the completion of wave (iv) of [v] of 3 is confirmed in the nearest future the projection of the possible ending of wave (v) of [v] of 3 should be looked for in the area of the 1.60 value (if wave (v) of [v] of 3 doesn’t decide to form an extension). Otherwise the accepted scenario should be reconsidered.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
May 3, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.




Introduction
Up to the present moment there is no confirmation of the completion of the correction in the favor of the dollar that has been developing since the second half of March. However its wave structure and the current depth allows to bring scenario v.3 to the forefront and expect the beginning of a new stage of the weakening of the US dollar (refer to The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)) and the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008)).
The confirmation of the completion of the correction and the beginning of a new stage of the wakening of the US dollar are the expected events at the beginning of May 2008.
The details of possible scenarios of reversal are considered in the corresponding sections.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
May 3, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-29 06:59 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 17:04 | 显示全部楼层
The current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of CHF refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008).


Figure C1.Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

In order scenario v.3, considered in the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008) and Monthly-0508, may confirm its right to exist the price has to complete the downward wave (v) of [v] in the form of an impulse or a diagonal triangle.
Taking into consideration the depth of correction ii of (v) of [v], proximity of the critical level and the upward impulsive direction of the price at the moment the alternate scenario also given in the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008) seems to be the most probable.

Figure C2.Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

In the framework of variant 3-a the upward correction may develop to the 1.11 mark in the form of a double or triple zigzag.

Figure C3.Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-a.



Figure C4.Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3-a.

Taking into consideration its sizes against the adjacent waves of the downward impulse we may suppose that corrective wave 4 of (3) of [C] is forming. This wave four may reach 50% depth not breaking the critical level (the terminus of wave 1 of (3) of [C]) and guideline of alternation.
The area of projected values for the terminus of wave (3) of [C] should be specified only after wave 4 of (3) of [C] completes.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
May 31, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.




The current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of JPY refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008).


Figure Y1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

In order that scenario v.3, considered in the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008) and Monthly-0508, may confirm its right to exist the price has to complete the downward wave 5 of (3) in the form of an impulse or a diagonal triangle. It must do it as soon as possible as wave 4 has already entered the territory of wave 1 of (3).
Taking into consideration the depth of correction 4 of (3), the fact that the price is on the territory of wave 1 of (3) and upward impulsive direction of the price at the moment scenario 3-dt also considered in Monthly-0508 seems to be the most probable.

Figure Y2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-dt.

In the framework of scenario 3-dt the upward correction may develop to the 111 mark in the form of a double or triple zigzag.

Figure Y3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-dt.



Figure Y4. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3-dt.

Taking into consideration its sizes against the adjacent waves of the downtrend we may suppose that corrective wave [4] of the supposed diagonal triangle V is forming. This wave four may reach the 78% depth.
The area of projected values for the terminus of wave [5] of V should be specified only after wave [4] of V completes.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
May 31, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.



The current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of GBP refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008).


Figure G1.Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

In order the scenario with a horizontal triangle considered in the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008) and Monthly-0508, confirm its right to exist the price has to complete the upward wave [d] of 4 in the form of a zigzag.
This variant isn’t cancelled and is quite possible. But from the point of view of price movement synchronism with the other currency pairs under consideration at the present the alternate scenario given below seems to be the most probable (Figure G2).

Figure G2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

The entire downward correction 4 can be easily presented in the form of a developing large zigzag the first leg of which is impulse [a] of 4, while the second leg is a complicated diagonal triangle [c] of 4 ([c] = ~ [a] * 0.618), demonstrating guideline of alternation for zigzags.
As wave three of the diagonal triangle (iii) of [c] of 4 is shorter than its first wave (i) of [c] of 4, it is easy to determine the critical level for its wave (v) of [c] of 4 — 1.9188, which is the critical level both for the diagonal triangle and for the whole supposed zigzag 4.
Besides until wave (v) of [c] of 4 completes forming the terminus of wave (ii) of [c] of 4 is also the critical level for this diagonal triangle.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
May 31, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.




The current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of EUR refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008).


Figure E1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

In order scenario v.3, considered in the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and Monthly-0508, confirm its right to exist the price has to complete the upward wave (v) of [v] in the form of an impulse or a diagonal triangle.
Taking into consideration the depth of correction ii of (v) of [v], proximity of the critical level and downward impulsive direction of the price at the present the alternate scenario also considered in the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008) seems to be the most probable..

Figure E2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

In the framework of scenario 3-a the downward correction may develop to the 1.50 mark in the form of a single zigzag.

Figure E3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-a.



Figure E4. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3-a.

Taking into consideration its sizes relative to the adjacent waves of the upward impulse we may suppose that corrective wave 4 of (3) of [C] is forming. This wave four may reach 38% depth without breaking the critical level (the terminus of wave 1 of (3) of [C]) and guideline of alternation.
Projected values for the terminus of wave (3) of [C] should be specified only after wave 4 of (3) of [C] completes.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
May 31, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory




Introduction
In this forecast two main scenarios are considered, one of which supposes in August 2008 the continuation of the dollar’s strengthening in the form of the wave correction that has been developing since the second half of March. At the moment this scenario seems to be the most probable.
The details of possible scenarios of reversal are considered in the corresponding sections.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
May 31, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-29 07:01 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 17:06 | 显示全部楼层
The current variant of the wave counting
For survey wave counting of CHF refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008).


Figure C1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

The current wave counting allows the supposition that the fourth wave 4 of the global downward impulse [C] may be completed (refer to the survey Figure C4 below). The fact that the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept its key interest rates unchanged at the low level may serve as an additional factor of the dollar’s negative appeal and its continuous decline (the decline of USD/CHF).
Please note that the high of the supposed wave [y] failed to overcome the level of the terminus of wave [w]. It may speak both of the strength of the expected downward movement and of the incompleteness of corrective wave 4. As the confirmatory levels for this scenario haven’t been passed by the price yet the alternate variant has the equal right to exist (refer to Figures below).

Figure C2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Probable alternate.

In the framework of the alternate variant the upward correction 4 continues to develop in the form of a zigzag construction and may cross 1.06 at least.
As the whole wave construction that has been developing since the beginning of May so far looks like an extended correction at the moment the alternate scenario seems to me the most attractive.

Figure C3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-a.



Figure C4. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3-a.

The supposed four 4 of impulse [C] without breaking the critical level (the ending of wave 1 of (3) of [C]) and guideline of alternation may continue upward development and reach 50% of the depth.
The area of the projected values for the terminus of wave (3) of [C] should be specified only after the completion of wave 4 of (3) of [C].
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
June 28, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.




The current variant of the wave counting
For survey wave counting of JPY refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008).


Figure Y1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-dt.

The current wave counting allows that the fourth wave [4] of the global downward diagonal triangle V may be completed (refer to the survey Figure Y3 below). The fact that the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept its key interest rates unchanged at the low level may serve as an additional factor of the dollar’s negative appeal and its continuous decline (the decline of USD/JPY).
But so far the price has failed both to pass the confirmatory levels and to break the lower border of the upward trend channel. Besides, taking into consideration the simultaneity of price movement of the other dollar pairs the alternate scenario seems to be the most probable (refer to Figures below).

Figure Y2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Probable alternate.

In the framework of the alternate variant the upward correction [4] continues forming in the form of a zigzag construction and may cross 110 at least.

Figure Y3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-dt.

Taking into consideration the relative sizes of correction [4]? it isn’t ruled out that these are the first and not the ending waves of downward diagonal triangle V (i.e. waves [1] and [2], refer to the alternate at the bottom of the chart and Figure Y4 below), wave [1] of V of which assumed the shape of double zigzag.

Figure Y4. Wave counting on the monthly chart. Variant 3-dt.

Taking into consideration the expected depth of the decline of USD/JPY (ideally below 80), the variant with the first wave [1] of V in the form of a double zigzag and a developing at the moment wave [2] of V seems to be quite real.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
June 28, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.




The current variant of the wave counting
For survey wave counting of GBP refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008).


Figure G1.Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

Three consecutive and intercrossing upward impulses that have formed since the first half of June may prove to be wedge of 5, sequence of waves 1-2, 1-2 or a part of developing wave [d] of 4.
If the supposed upward wedge of 5 doesn’t transform into a double (or triple zigzag) we may say with certainty that wave 4 in the form of a horizontal triangle is completed. The fact that the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept its key interest rates unchanged at the low level may serve as an additional factor of the dollar’s negative appeal and its continuous decline (the rise of GBP/USD).

Figure G2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3.

If the supposition about the completion of the horizontal triangle 4 is true after the retracement of the price to ~ 1.96 (corrective wave [ii] of 5) it is natural to expect further forming of upward wave 5 in the form of an impulse or a diagonal triangle.
Otherwise further development of the ending waves of extended correction 4.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
June 28, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.




The current variant of the wave counting
For survey wave counting of EUR refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008).


Figure E1.Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

The wave counting allows the supposition that the fourth wave 4 of the global upward impulse [C] may be completed (refer to the survey Figure E4 below). The fact that the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept its key interest rates unchanged at the low level may serve as an additional factor of the dollar’s negative appeal and its continuous decline (the rise of EUR/USD).
But note that the top of the supposed wave [z] failed to overcome the level of the terminus of wave [y]. It may speak both of the strength of the expected upward movement and of incompleteness of corrective wave 4. As the confirmatory level for this scenario haven’t been passed by the price yet the alternate variant has the same right to exist (refer to Figures below).

Figure E2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Probable alternate.

In the framework of the alternate variant almost horizontal correction 4 continues developing in the form of a zigzag construction and may cross 1.53 at least.
As the whole wave construction that has been developing since the beginning of May so far looks like a single extended correction [xx] the alternate variant seems to me more attractive at the moment.

Figure E3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-a.



Figure E4. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3-a.

The supposed four 4 of impulse [C], without breaking the critical level (the ending of wave 1 of (3) of [C]) and guideline of alternation may continue downward development and reach the depth of 38% or 50%.
The areas of projected values for the ending of wave (3) of [C] should be specified only after the completion of wave 4 of (3) of [C].
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
June 28, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.




Introduction
Unfortunately June didn’t make the wave counting on the bigger time-frames clear. Practically the same scenarios that were considered a month ago are actual now. But it isn’t ruled out that the correction that has been forming since the second half of March hasn’t completed yet. At the moment this variant seems to me the most probable.
The details of possible scenarios are considered in the corresponding sections.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
June 28, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 17:08 | 显示全部楼层
The current variant of the wave counting
For survey wave counting of CHF refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008).


Figure C1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-a.

In the framework of the current scenario the whole correction 4 can be presented as an upward double zigzag [w]-[x]-[y], the wave-link [x] of 4 of which has assumed the shape of an ordinary zigzag (a)-(b)-(c).
If the supposition about the shape of wave 4 is true its terminus may be expected in the range of 1.06..1.11. The area of projected values for wave 4 should be specified after the completion of the supposed wave (b) of [y] of 4.
Very important confirmatory levels are 1.0538 (the terminus of wave (b) of [x] of 4) and 1.0621 (the terminus of wave [w] of 4), the critical level is 1.0011 (the terminus of wave [x] of 4).
The point is that the supposed wave [x] of 4 of the current scenario has the shape of an ordinary zigzag (5-3-5), which in the framework of alternate scenarios can be interpreted either as a forming downward wedge (Figure C2), or as the first wave of a downward diagonal triangle (Figure C3).

Figure C2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Possible alternate.

In the framework of alternate scenarios upward correction 4 is completed in the form of an ordinary zigzag. According to an alternate scenario wave 5 is assuming the shape of a downward impulse with wave of 5 in the form of a forming wedge.

Figure C3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Possible alternate.

Another alternate doesn’t rule out that wave 5 is assuming the shape of a downward diagonal triangle the first wave of 5 of which has formed already.
We have to wait for the confirmation of one or another scenario.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
July 26, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.




The current variant of the wave counting
For survey wave counting of JPY refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008).


Figure Y1. Wave counting on the monthly chart. Variant 3-dt.

Taking into consideration the depth of the price decline after the supposed horizontal triangle IV, we may suggest that so far only the development of the first wave [1] of downward diagonal triangle V has completed. At the moment supposedly correction [2] of V is developing.

Figure Y2. Wave counting on 720 min chart. Variant 3-dt.

In the framework of the accepted scenario upward correction [2] continues developing in the form of a triple zigzag and can reach the 110 mark. The area of projected values should be specified only after the completion of the supposed wave B of (Z) of [2].

Figure Y3. Wave counting on 720 min chart. Possible alternate.

The alternate variant of counting doesn’t rule out that wave [2] is completed in the form of a double zigzag and at the moment downward impulse (A) of [3] of V is developing.
We have to wait for the confirmation of one or another scenario.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
July 26, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.




The current variant of the wave counting
For survey wave counting of GBP refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008).


Figure G1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3.

In the framework of the current scenario the whole correction 4 can be presented as a contracting triangle wave [d] of 4 of which has assumed the shape of an ordinary zigzag (a)-(b)-(c).
If the supposition about the shape of wave 4 is true its terminus may be expected in the range of 1.96..1.93. The area of projected values for the terminus of wave 4 should be specified after the completion of the supposed wave (b) of [e] of 4.
A very important confirmatory level is 1.9408 (the terminus of wave (b) of [d] of 4) the critical level is 2.0153 (the terminus of wave [d] of 4).
The point is that the supposed wave [d] of 4 of the current scenario has the shape of an ordinary zigzag (5-3-5), which in the framework of alternate scenarios can be interpreted either as a forming upward wedge (Figure G2), or as the first wave of an upward diagonal triangle (Figure G3).

Figure G2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Possible alternate 1.

In the framework of alternate scenarios correction 4 is completed in the form of a double three. According to an alternate scenario wave 5 is assuming the shape of an upward impulse with wave of 5 in the form of forming wedge.

Figure G3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Possible alternate 2.

Another alternate doesn’t rule out that wave 5 is assuming the shape of upward diagonal triangle the first wave of 5 of which has already formed. The differences in the nature of the nearest price movement from the variant in Figure G1 lie in less aggressive price decline and the initial starting point of a new stage of the dollar’s decline (the rise of GBP/USD).
We have to wait for the confirmation of one or another scenario.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
July 26, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.



The current variant of the wave counting
For survey wave counting of EUR refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008).


Figure E1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-a.

In the framework of the current scenario the whole correction 4 can be presented in the form of an expanding triangle wave [d] of 4 of which has assumed the shape of an ordinary zigzag (a)-(b)-(c).
If the supposition of the shape of wave 4 is true its terminus may be expected in the area of 1.54..1.50. The are of projected values for the terminus of wave 4 should be specified only after the supposed wave (b) of [e] of 4 completes.
Very important confirmatory levels are 1.5302 (the terminus of wave (b) of [d] of 4) and 1.5284 (the terminus of wave [c] of 4), and the critical level is 1.6036 (the terminus of wave [d] of 4).
The point is that the supposed wave [d] of 4 of the current scenario has the shape of an ordinary zigzag (5-3-5), which in the framework of alternate scenarios may be interpreted either as a forming upward wedge (Figure E2), or as the first wave of upward diagonal triangle (Figure E3).

Figure E2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Possible alternate 1.

In the framework of alternate scenarios correction 4 is completed in the form of an expanded flat. One of the alternate scenarios suggests that wave 5 is assuming the shape of an upward impulse with wave принимает форму восходящего импульса с волной of 5 в виде формирующегося клина.

Figure E3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Possible alternate 2.

Another alternate doesn’t rule that wave 5 is assuming the shape of an upward diagonal triangle the first wave of 5 of which has already formed. The differences in the nature of the nearest price movement from the variant in figure E1 lie in less aggressive price decline and the initial starting point of a new stage of the dollar’s decline (the rise of EUR/USD).
We have to wait for the confirmation of one or another scenario.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
July 26, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory




Introduction
The US dollar's global decline has been temporarily broken by a large correction that has been forming for several months already. At the moment the actual question is to determine the point of its completion, to which this forecast is devoted.
The details of possible scenarios of further price movements are considered in the corresponding sections.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
July 26, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-29 07:10 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 17:14 | 显示全部楼层
The current variant of the wave counting
For survey wave counting of CHF refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008).


Figure C1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-a.

In the framework of the current scenario the whole correction 4 can be presented as an upward double zigzag [w]-[x]-[y], the wave-link [x] of 4 of which has assumed the shape of an ordinary zigzag (a)-(b)-(c).
If the supposition about the shape of wave 4 is true its terminus may be expected in the range of 1.06..1.11. The area of projected values for wave 4 should be specified after the completion of the supposed wave (b) of [y] of 4.
Very important confirmatory levels are 1.0538 (the terminus of wave (b) of [x] of 4) and 1.0621 (the terminus of wave [w] of 4), the critical level is 1.0011 (the terminus of wave [x] of 4).
The point is that the supposed wave [x] of 4 of the current scenario has the shape of an ordinary zigzag (5-3-5), which in the framework of alternate scenarios can be interpreted either as a forming downward wedge (Figure C2), or as the first wave of a downward diagonal triangle (Figure C3).

Figure C2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Possible alternate.

In the framework of alternate scenarios upward correction 4 is completed in the form of an ordinary zigzag. According to an alternate scenario wave 5 is assuming the shape of a downward impulse with wave of 5 in the form of a forming wedge.

Figure C3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Possible alternate.

Another alternate doesn’t rule out that wave 5 is assuming the shape of a downward diagonal triangle the first wave of 5 of which has formed already.
We have to wait for the confirmation of one or another scenario.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
July 26, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.



The current variant of the wave counting
For survey wave counting of JPY refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008).


Figure Y1. Wave counting on the monthly chart. Variant 3-dt.

Taking into consideration the depth of the price decline after the supposed horizontal triangle IV, we may suggest that so far only the development of the first wave [1] of downward diagonal triangle V has completed. At the moment supposedly correction [2] of V is developing.

Figure Y2. Wave counting on 720 min chart. Variant 3-dt.

In the framework of the accepted scenario upward correction [2] continues developing in the form of a triple zigzag and can reach the 110 mark. The area of projected values should be specified only after the completion of the supposed wave B of (Z) of [2].

Figure Y3. Wave counting on 720 min chart. Possible alternate.

The alternate variant of counting doesn’t rule out that wave [2] is completed in the form of a double zigzag and at the moment downward impulse (A) of [3] of V is developing.
We have to wait for the confirmation of one or another scenario.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
July 26, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.




The current variant of the wave counting
For survey wave counting of GBP refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008).


Figure G1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3.

In the framework of the current scenario the whole correction 4 can be presented as a contracting triangle wave [d] of 4 of which has assumed the shape of an ordinary zigzag (a)-(b)-(c).
If the supposition about the shape of wave 4 is true its terminus may be expected in the range of 1.96..1.93. The area of projected values for the terminus of wave 4 should be specified after the completion of the supposed wave (b) of [e] of 4.
A very important confirmatory level is 1.9408 (the terminus of wave (b) of [d] of 4) the critical level is 2.0153 (the terminus of wave [d] of 4).
The point is that the supposed wave [d] of 4 of the current scenario has the shape of an ordinary zigzag (5-3-5), which in the framework of alternate scenarios can be interpreted either as a forming upward wedge (Figure G2), or as the first wave of an upward diagonal triangle (Figure G3).

Figure G2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Possible alternate 1.

In the framework of alternate scenarios correction 4 is completed in the form of a double three. According to an alternate scenario wave 5 is assuming the shape of an upward impulse with wave of 5 in the form of forming wedge.

Figure G3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Possible alternate 2.

Another alternate doesn’t rule out that wave 5 is assuming the shape of upward diagonal triangle the first wave of 5 of which has already formed. The differences in the nature of the nearest price movement from the variant in Figure G1 lie in less aggressive price decline and the initial starting point of a new stage of the dollar’s decline (the rise of GBP/USD).
We have to wait for the confirmation of one or another scenario.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
July 26, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.




The current variant of the wave counting
For survey wave counting of EUR refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008).


Figure E1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-a.

In the framework of the current scenario the whole correction 4 can be presented in the form of an expanding triangle wave [d] of 4 of which has assumed the shape of an ordinary zigzag (a)-(b)-(c).
If the supposition of the shape of wave 4 is true its terminus may be expected in the area of 1.54..1.50. The are of projected values for the terminus of wave 4 should be specified only after the supposed wave (b) of [e] of 4 completes.
Very important confirmatory levels are 1.5302 (the terminus of wave (b) of [d] of 4) and 1.5284 (the terminus of wave [c] of 4), and the critical level is 1.6036 (the terminus of wave [d] of 4).
The point is that the supposed wave [d] of 4 of the current scenario has the shape of an ordinary zigzag (5-3-5), which in the framework of alternate scenarios may be interpreted either as a forming upward wedge (Figure E2), or as the first wave of upward diagonal triangle (Figure E3).

Figure E2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Possible alternate 1.

In the framework of alternate scenarios correction 4 is completed in the form of an expanded flat. One of the alternate scenarios suggests that wave 5 is assuming the shape of an upward impulse with wave принимает форму восходящего импульса с волной of 5 в виде формирующегося клина.

Figure E3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Possible alternate 2.

Another alternate doesn’t rule that wave 5 is assuming the shape of an upward diagonal triangle the first wave of 5 of which has already formed. The differences in the nature of the nearest price movement from the variant in figure E1 lie in less aggressive price decline and the initial starting point of a new stage of the dollar’s decline (the rise of EUR/USD).
We have to wait for the confirmation of one or another scenario.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
July 26, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.



Introduction
The US dollar's global decline has been temporarily broken by a large correction that has been forming for several months already. At the moment the actual question is to determine the point of its completion, to which this forecast is devoted.
The details of possible scenarios of further price movements are considered in the corresponding sections.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
July 26, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-29 07:12 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 17:17 | 显示全部楼层
The current variant of the wave counting
For survey wave counting of CHF refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008), the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008) and the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (2-d half of 2008).


Figure C1.Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-a.

In the framework of the current scenario the whole correction 4 can be presented in the form of a double zigzag [w]-[x]-[y], wave-link [x] of 4 of which has assumed the shape of an ordinary zigzag (a)-(b)-(c).
It isn’t ruled out that zigzag [y] of 4 is completed, i.e. the whole supposed correction 4 is completed. If this is the case in September one should expect progressive decline of the US dollar (the decline of USD/CHF).
A weak point of this supposition is a disproportionately narrow zigzag [y] of 4, and also the fact that the confirmatory levels of the current scenario haven’t been passed by the price yet.
In this case the alternate variant of counting that allows further strengthening of the US dollar (the rise of USD/CHF; refer to Figure C2, below) remains actual.

Figure C2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Possible alternate.

In the framework of the alternate variant it isn’t ruled out that upward narrow trend since the middle of July (wave (a) of [y] of 4) is only a part of the developing zigzag [y] of 4. In this case in September one should expect a shallow downward or horizontal retracement (wave (b) of [y] of 4) and further continuation of the US dollar’s strengthening (the rise of USD/CHF in the form of wave (c) of [y] of 4).
There remains for us to expect the confirmation of one of scenarios.

Figure C3. Wave counting on the weekly chart.



Figure C4. Wave counting on the monthly chart.

The wave counting on the weekly and monthly charts hasn’t changed so far.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
August 31, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory



The current variant of the wave counting
For survey wave counting of JPY refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008), the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008) and the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (2-d half of 2008).


Figure Y1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-dt.

In the framework of the current scenario the whole correction [2] can be presented in the form of upward triple zigzag [w]-[x]-[y]-[x]-[z].
It isn’t ruled out that zigzag (z) of [2] is completed, i.e. the whole supposed correction [2] is completed. If this is the case in September one should expect progressive decline of the US dollar (the decline of USD/JPY).
Unfortunately the confirmatory levels of the current scenario haven’t been passed by the price yet. That’s why in this case the alternate variant of counting that allows further strengthening of the US dollar (the rise of USD/JPY; refer to Figure Y2, below) remains actual.

Figure Y2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Possible alternate.

In the framework of the alternate scenario it isn’t ruled out that upward narrow trend since the middle of July (wave A of (Y) of [2]) is only a part of the developing zigzag (Y) of [2]. In this case in September one should expect a shallow downward or horizontal retracement (wave B of (Y) of [2]) and further continuation of the US dollar’s strengthening (the rise of USD/JPY in the form of wave C of (Y) of [2]).
There remains for us to expect the confirmation of one of the scenarios.

Figure Y3. Wave counting on the weekly chart.



Figure Y4. Wave counting on the monthly chart.

The wave counting on the weekly and monthly charts hasn’t changed so far.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
August 31, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.




The current variant of the wave counting
For survey wave counting of GBP refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008), the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008) and the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (2-d half of 2008).


Figure G1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3.

In the framework of the current scenario the whole correction 2 may be presented in the form of an ordinary zigzag [a]--[c]. It isn’t ruled out that impulse [c] of 4 is completed, i.e. the whole supposed correction 2 is completed. If this is the case in September one should expect progressive decline of the US dollar (the rise of GBP/USD).
Unfortunately the confirmatory levels of the current scenario haven’t been passed by the price so far. That’s why in this case the alternate variant of counting that allows further strengthening of the US dollar (the decline of GBP/USD; refer to Figure G2, below) remains actual.

Figure G2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Possible alternate.

In the framework of the alternate variant it isn’t ruled out that downward narrow trend since the middle of July (waves (i)-(ii)-(iii) of [c] of 2) is only a part of the developing impulse [c] of 2. In this case in September one may expect a shallow upward or horizontal retracement (wave (iv) of [c] of 2) and further continuation of the US dollar’s strengthening (the decline of GBP/USD in the form of wave (v) of [c] of 2).
There remains for us to expect the confirmation of one of the scenarios.

Figure G3. Wave counting on the weekly chart.



Figure G4. Wave counting on the monthly chart.

The wave counting on the weekly and monthly charts hasn’t changed yet.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
August 31, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.




The current variant of the wave counting
For survey wave counting of EUR refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008), the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008) and the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (2-d half of 2008).


Figure E1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-a.

In the framework of the current scenario the whole correction 4 may be presented in the form of a flat [a]--[c]. It isn’t ruled out that impulse [c] of 4 is completed, i.e. the whole supposed correction 4 is completed. If this is the case in September one should expect considerable decline of the US dollar (the rise of EUR/USD).
Unfortunately the confirmatory levels of the current scenario haven’t been passed yet by the price. That’s why the alternate variant of counting that allows further strengthening of the US dollar (the decline of EUR/USD; refer to Figure E2, below) remains actual.

Figure E2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Possible alternate.

In the framework of the alternate variant it isn’t ruled out that the downward narrow trend since the middle of July (waves (i)-(ii)-(iii) of [c] of 4) is only a part of the developing impulse [c] of 4. In this case in September one may expect a shallow upward or horizontal retracement (wave (iv) of [c] of 4) and further continuation of the US dollar’s strengthening (the decline of EUR/USD in the form of wave (v) of [c] of 4).
There remains for us to expect the confirmation of one of the scenarios.

Figure E3. Wave counting on the weekly chart.

The wave counting on the weekly chart hasn’t changes so far.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
August 31, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.




Introduction
The global decline of the US dollar has been temporarily broken by a large correction that has been developing for several months. At the moment the actual problem is to determine the point of its completion to what this forecast is devoted.
Possible scenarios of further price movements are considered in the corresponding sections.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
August 31, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-29 07:15 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 17:19 | 显示全部楼层
The current variant of the wave counting
For survey wave counting of CHF refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (IV quarter of 2008).

Figure C1. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3-dz.

According to scenario 3-dz the supposed correction [X] may be presented in the form of upward double zigzag W-X-Y of (A) of [X]. If this supposition is true at the moment possible variants of the completion of corrective wave of Y of (A), are of interest.

Figure C2. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

The supposed wave of Y may be assuming the shape of narrow downward double or triple zigzag (w)-(x)-(y)-(x)-(z) of . In this case the decline of the price continues in the borders of the trend channel and may reach the depth of 78 %.

Figure C3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Possible alternate.

If the price fixes above the higher border of the current trend channel we may speak of the completion of wave of Y (marked in the chart with grey color), or of the further development of wave of Y in the form of some horizontal construction (a flat, a double three or an extended horizontal correction).

Figure C4. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Possible alternate.

At the same time a variant in the framework of which wave [X] is completed already, isn’t ruled out yet. But its relatively small depth and duration don’t allow bringing this scenario to forefront.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
September 28, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory




The current variant of the wave counting
For survey wave counting of JPY refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (IV quarter of 2008).

Figure Y1. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3-dt.

According to scenario 3-dt the supposed correction [2] may be presented in the form of upward zigzag (A)-(B)-(C) of [X]. If this supposition is true at the moment possible variants of the completion of corrective wave (B) of [2], given below, are of interest.

Figure Y2. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

The supposed wave (B) of [2] may be assuming the shape of downward triple zigzag W-X-Y-XX-Z of (B) of [2]. In this case the decline of the price will continue and may reach the 103 mark or lower. Only after that the local trend reversal upward should be expected.

Figure Y3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Possible alternate.

Если же цена закрепится над верхней границей текущего трендового канала, то это может говорить о завершении волны (B) of [2] в виде двойного зигзага W-X-Y of (B). В этом случае новый восходящий тренд (волна (C) of [2]) может начаться с клина 1 of (C) of [2].

Figure Y4. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Possible alternate.

At the same time a variant in the framework of which wave [2] is completed already, isn’t ruled out yet. But synchronism of the expected price movement in the framework of the supposed scenarios in other dollar pairs doesn’t allow bringing it to the forefront.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
September 28, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.




The current variant of the wave counting
For survey wave counting of GBP refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (IV quarter of 2008).

Figure G1. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 1.

According to the scenario 1 the supposed ending wave (E) of [X] of the global horizontal triangle [X] may be presented in the form of downward double zigzag W-X-Y of (E) of [X]. If this supposition is true at the moment possible variant of the completion of corrective wave of Y of (E) of [X], given below, are of special interest.

Figure G2. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

The supposed wave of Y may be assuming the shape of narrow double or triple zigzag (w)-(x)-(y)-(x)-(z) of . In this case the rise of price will continue in the borders of the trend channel and may reach the depth of 78%.

Figure G3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Possible alternate.

If the price fixes under the lower border of the current trend channel we may speak either of the completion of wave of Y (marked in the chart with grey color), or of the further development of wave of Y in the form of some horizontal construction (flat, double three or an extended horizontal correction).

Figure G4. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Possible alternate.

At the same time a variant according to which wave [X] is completed already, isn’t ruled out yet. But synchronism of the expected price movement in the framework of the supposed scenarios in the other dollar pairs doesn’t allow bringing it to the forefront.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
September 28, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.




The current variant of the wave counting
For survey wave counting of EUR refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (IV quarter of 2008).

Figure E1. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3-dz.

In the framework of scenario 3-dz the supposed correction [X] may be presented in the form of downward zigzag A-B-C of (A) of [X]. If this is the case at the moment possible variants of the completion of corrective wave B of (A), given below, are of special interest.

Figure E2. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

The supposed wave B of (A) may be assuming the shape of narrow upward double or triple zigzag [w]-[x]-[y]-[x]-[z] of B. In this case the rise of price will continue in the borders of the trend channel and may reach the depth of 78%.

Figure E3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Possible alternate.

If the price fixes under the lower border of the current trend channel we may speak either of the completion of wave B of (A) (it is marked in the chart with grey), or of the further development of wave B of (A) in the form of a horizontal construction (flat, double three or an extended horizontal correction).

Figure E4. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Possible alternate.

At the same time a variant in the framework of which wave [X] is completed already, isn’t ruled out. But its relatively small depth and duration don’t allow bringing this scenario to the forefront.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
September 28, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.




Introduction
The global US dollar’s decline is temporarily broken by a large correction which has been developing for several months already. At the moment an actual question is to determine the point of its terminus to which this forecast was devoted.
Possible scenarios of further price movements are considered in the corresponding sections.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
September 28, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-29 07:30 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 17:21 | 显示全部楼层
The current wave counting
For the survey wave counting of CHF refer to the article Possible Depth of the Decline (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF).


Figure C1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-dz.



Figure C2. Wave counting on the weekly chart.

In the framework of scenario 3-dz the supposed correction [X] may be presented in the form of an upward double or triple zigzag W-X-Y-X-Z of (A) of [X].
If this supposition is true the confirmation of completion of wave (Y) of [X] and the development of downward (or horizontal) correction (X) of [X] should be expected in November.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
November 2, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.




The current wave counting
For the survey wave counting of JPY refer to the article Possible Depth of the Decline (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF).


Figure Y1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-dt.



Figure Y2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Possible alternate.



Figure Y3. Wave counting on the weekly chart.

In the framework of scenario 3-dt the ending zigzag [5] of a large downward diagonal triangle V continues developing.
If the price fixes above the upper border of the channel of impulse (A) of [5] of V it will mean its completion and development of the supposed correction (B) of [5] of V with further downward reversal of the price.
Otherwise the decline of the price will continues until the completion of impulse (A) of [5] of V, and only after its completion upward or horizontal correction (B) of [5] of V will start developing.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
November 2, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.




The current wave counting
For the survey wave counting of GBP refer to the article Possible Depth of the Decline (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF).


Figure G1. Wave couning on 720 min chart. Variant 1.



Figure G2. Wave counting on the weekly chart.

In the framework of scenario 1 the supposed ending wave (E) of [X] of the global horizontal triangle [X] may be presented in the form of a downward double or triple zigzag W-X-Y-X-Z of (E) of [X].
If this supposition is true the confirmation of the completion of wave Y of (E) of [X] and the development of upward (or horizontal) correction X of (E) of [X] should be expected in November.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
November 2, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory




The current wave counting
For the survey wave counting of EUR refer to Possible Depth of the Decline (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF).


Figure E1. Wave counting on 720 min chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure E2. Wave counting on the weekly chart.

In the framework of scenario 3-dz the supposed correction [X] may be represented in the form of a downward double zigzag (W)-(X)-(Y) of [X].
If this supposition is true the confirmation of the completion of wave (W) of [X] and the development of upward (or horizontal) correction (X) of [X] may be expected in November.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
November 2, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.



Introduction
Supposedly the strengthening of the US dollar that has been lasting for several months hasn’t completed yet. Possible variants of the continuation of this strengthening were considered in the corresponding sections of this forecast.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
November 2, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-29 07:32 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 17:23 | 显示全部楼层
The current variant of the wave counting
For survey wave counting of CHF refer to the article Possible Depth of the Decline .


Figure C1.Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-dz.



Figure 1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-dz.

Supposedly in the framework of scenario 3-dz an upward zigzag structure is developing. If the supposition is true the weakening of the US dollar (the decline of USD/CHF) should be expected in the near term.
Which of the variants given in the forecast the price will chooses depends on the depth of the expected price decline.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
November 30, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.




The current variant of the wave counting
For survey wave counting of JPY refer to the article Possible Depth of the Decline .


Figure Y1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-dt.



Figure Y2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-dt.



Figure Y3. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3-dt.

In the framework of scenario 3-dt the ending zigzag [5] of a large downward diagonal triangle V continues developing. If the supposition about wave structure on the small time-frames is true the weakening of USD (the decline of USD/JPY) should be expected in the near term.
Which of the variants given in the forecast the price will choose will depend on the depth of the expected decline.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
November 30, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.





The current variant of the wave counting
For survey wave counting of GBP refer to the article Possible Depth of the Decline .








Supposedly in the framework of scenario 1 a downward zigzag structure is developing. If this is the case the weakening of USD (the rise of GBP/USD) should be expected in the near term.
Which of the variants given in the forecast the price will choose depends on the height of the expected price rise.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
November 30, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.




The current variant of the wave counting
For survey wave counting of EUR refer to the article Possible Depth of the Decline .


Figure E1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-dz.



Figure E2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-dz.

Supposedly in the framework of scenario 3-dz a downward zigzag structure is developing. If the supposition is true the wakening of USD should be expected in the near term (the rise of EUR/USD).
Which of the variants given in the forecast the price will choose depends on the height of the expected price rise.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
November 30, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.




Supposedly the US dollar’s strengthening that has been lasting for several months hasn’t completed yet. Possible variant of the continuation of this strengthening were considered in the corresponding sections of this forecast.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
November 30, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-29 07:33 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 17:25 | 显示全部楼层
The current variant of the wave counting
For the survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-09.


Figure C1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-dz.

Supposedly in the framework of scenario 3-dz a new upward zigzag structure is developing. If this is the case after the completion of the downward correction the US dollar’s strengthening (the rise of USD/CHF) should be expected.
For more detailed wave counting on  smaller time-frames and  parameters of possible trading plans refer to   the daily reports.
References  
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
January 18, 2009
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.



The current variant of the wave counting
For the survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-09.


Figure Y1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-dt.

In the framework of scenario 3-dt the first leg (A) of zigzag that is one of the main waves of a large diagonal triangle V.  completes developing. If the supposition of the current wave structure is true after the completion of upward correction strengthening of JPY (the decline of USD/JPY) should be expected.
For more detailed wave counting on  smaller time-frames and  parameters of possible trading plans refer to   the daily reports.
References  
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
January 18, 2009
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.



The current variant of the wave counting
For the survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-09.


Figure G1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1.

Supposedly in the framework of scenario 1 a downward zigzag structure is developing. If this is the case after the completion of the horizontal correction the US dollar’s strengthening should be expected (the decline of GBP/USD).
For more detailed wave counting on  smaller time-frames and  parameters of possible trading plans refer to   the daily reports.
References  
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
January 18, 2009
When using any part of the article for



The current variant of the wave counting
For the survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-09.


Figure E1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-dz.

Supposedly in the framework of scenario 3-dz a new downward zigzag structure is developing. If this is the case after the completion of upward correction the US dollar’s strengthening (the decline of EUR/USD) should be expected.
For more detailed wave counting on  smaller time-frames and  parameters of possible trading plans refer to   the daily reports.
References  
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
January 18, 2009
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.



Introduction
Supposedly the US dollar’s strengthening that has been lasting for several months hasn’t   completed yet. Possible variant of the continuation of this strengthening were considered in   the corresponding sections of this report.
References  
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
January 18, 2009
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-29 07:34 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 17:28 | 显示全部楼层
The current variant of the wave counting
For the survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-09.


Figure C1.Immediate continuation of the US dollar's strengthening.



Figure C2. Completion of a large correction against the dollar.

Supposedly in the framework of scenario 3-dz a new upward zigzag structure is developing. The choice of one of the equally probable variants will be determined by the depth of downward correction which the price will prefer.
For more detailed wave counting on  smaller time-frames and  parameters of possible trading plans refer to   the daily reports.
References  
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
January 31, 2009
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.




The current variant of the wave counting
For the survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-09.


Figure Y1. Immediate continuation of the yen's strengthening.



Figure Y2. Completion of a large correction against the yen.

In the framework of scenario 3-dt downward zigzag (A)-(B)-(C) is developing as a main wave of a large diagonal triangle. A small difference between almost equally probable variants lies in the depth of the yen’s decline (the rise of USD/JPY) , which the price will prefer.
From the point of view of the internal structure of this knot the variant in Figure Y1 has a small advantage.
For more detailed wave counting on  smaller time-frames and  parameters of possible trading plans refer to   the daily reports.
References  
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
January 31, 2009
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory



The current variant of the wave counting
For the survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-09.


Figure G1. Immediate continuation of the US dollar's strengthening.



Figure G2. Completion of a large correction against the USD.

Supposedly in the framework of scenario 1 a downward zigzag structure is developing. The choice of one of the equally probable variants will be determined by the location of the ending point of upward wave [e], which the price will prefer.
For more detailed wave counting on  smaller time-frames and  parameters of possible trading plans refer to   the daily reports.
References  
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
January 31, 2009
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.




The current variant of the wave counting
For the survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-09.


Figure E1. Immediate continuation of the US dollar's strengthening.



Figure E2. Completion of a large correction against the USD.

Supposedly in the framework of scenario 3-dz a new downward zigzag structure is developing. The choice of one of equally probable variants will be determined by the depth of upward correction which the price will prefer.
For more detailed wave counting on  smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to   the daily reports.
References  
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
January 31, 2009
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.



Supposedly the process of strengthening of the US dollar against the European currencies and the Japanese yen against the USD that has been lasting for several months, hasn’t completed yet. At the same time at the moment there are two most probable scenarios which are considered in this forecast:
Introduction
Supposedly the process of strengthening of the US dollar against the European currencies and   the Japanese yen against the USD that has been lasting for several months, hasn’t   completed yet. At the  same time at  the moment есть there are two most probable scenarios:
  • immediate continuation of strengthening of the dollar and yen;
  • the completion of a large correction directed against the dollar and yen and only after that their further strengthening.
Each of these scenarios is considered in the corresponding sections of this forecast.
References  
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
January 31, 2009
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-29 07:35 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 17:29 | 显示全部楼层
February 2009January 2009December 2008November 2008October 2008September 2008August 2008July 2008June 2008May 2008April 2008March 2008February 2008January 2008December 2007November 2007October 2007September 2007August 2007July 2007June 2007May 2007April 2007February 2007January 2007December 2006November 2006October 2006September 2006August 2006July 2006June 2006May 2006April 2006March 2006February 2006January 2006December 2005November 2005
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 17:30 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction

On large time frames it is quite difficult to analyze and predict price movement, as we have authentic data only within the last 30-35 years (sometimes even less). It restricts precision of evaluation of the current situation and forecasts precision, especially on large time frames.

As for the wave analysis relative price movement character is the main distinct feature of the FOREX market, which impacts global wave picture of currency pairs. A chart of any currency pair reflects the strength of one currency against the other. Permanent “forward and upward” movement is hardly probable (comparing with the stock index, where weak stocks are placed by strong ones). It is more probable that the cross rates of the main currencies are in the permanent global correction, forming a complicated many-year corrective structure and increasing the quantity of such waves counting. Within this structure different combinations of Elliott's patterns may be distinguished, they make it possible to analyze current situation and forecast further prices movement.

Moreover, peculiarities of the FOREX market, which have impact on the inner wave patterns structures, are: high marginality, currency interventions, twenty-four-hour trading within the business week.


Current Situation in the FOREX Market

Last year it was supposed (e.g. in Annual-05 (in Russian)), that price movement against the US Dollar may continue at least till 2010. Moreover, in Annual-05 (in Russian) it was forecasted that correction with depth about 38%-62% of the previous many-month movement would begin in 2005. This correction will last at least till March, 2006. Forecasted correction price depth was adjusted several times last year.

2005 forecast was confirmed. The US Dollar steadied within 2005 (from January to the end of the year).

This correction movement may be not completed yet, though judging by its wave structure, duration and depth, we may suppose that expected reversal point will be just a local high/low within the forming correction, not the final high/low of the whole correction. Though this high/low may have been formed already (for the European currencies – in November, for the yen – at the beginning of December, refer to Figure 1 in Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian).

It is difficult to compose EWA for 2006 as:
  • It is not confirmed yet that movement in favor of the dollar, begun in January, 2005, has been completed. That is, the first high/low of correction (A)or(W) may be either projected point in March or the point in November-December, 2005.
  • Trend reverse, expected in March, 2006 is still a supposition, that is one of a variety of possible scenarios.
  • here is no data point to forecast expected prices movement against the US Dollar (supposedly, after March, 2006).

Thus, there is neither confirmed pivot point, nor first waves of a new trend, which could make a hint at further price movement direction.

Currently expectations of reverse of the trend against the dollar at the middle of March, 2006 still prevail. Further price movement will depend on different data, if, once the trend is reversed, completed three-wave pattern forms by November, 2006, its high/low may be the second high/low of many-month extended correction. In this case further prices movement may be defined with the help of the wave chart and mutual waves correlation. Otherwise the US Dollar decline may last at least till May, 2007.

I took the opportunity and revised the wave counting once again. I tried to simplify it without loss of inner wave structure and common sense.

In this article possible variants of renewed waves counting of higher degrees and their perspectives in 2006 are described.


Addition of April 10, 2006


Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs

Note

This report reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release. This report is subject to change, it will be reflected in monthly and daily analyses.

It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show the probable price movements.


Reference


Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
January 8, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 17:31 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction

Forecasted in Annual-05 price movement remained valid, having formed uptrend. The result is shown in Figure C1.



Figure C1. Final weekly chart of the WA, 2005.

Last year CHF movement schematic forecast is shown here for illustrative purposes.


Current wave analysis

In Figure C2 CHF survey wave counting is shown.



Figure C2. Wave counting on the monthly chart.

Price movement on the logarithmic scale fits in the wave pattern diagonal triangle. In case this supposition is correct, wave V may be either simple or double zigzag. In Figure C2 its schematic movement is shown in the shape of zigzag.

Wave [B] may assume the shape of (expanded) flat or extended correction (refer to New Wave Pattern and New Classification of Extended Corrections in the FOREX Market.). Possible variants of development of correction [B] first waves are shown on the weekly chart (refer to Figure C3 below).



Figure C3. Wave counting on the weekly chart. The main scenario.

Price is supposed to begin to spin around the virtual skewer, described in September, 2005 in “Imaginary Skewer”.

According to the main variant, the dollar may keep strengthening till the beginning (or middle) of March, 2006 in the shape of double zigzag (a pair of double zigzags) with further trend reverse against the dollar. Approximate targets are specified in Key Levels, Which Open New Targets (in Russian).

Further price movement forming will depend on many factors, though in case completed three-wave pattern is formed after trend reverse by November, 2006, its low may be the second terminal point of many-month extended correction. In this case price movement forecast will be revised in accordance with the wave analysis and mutual waves proportions. Otherwise, the US Dollar fall may last at least till May, 2007.

Though the first high of this correction (or the final high of the whole correction) was already formed in November, 2005, in accordance with the alternative variants which are not confirmed yet (refer to Figure C4 below).



Figure C4. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Alternative variants.

Further price decline and its fixing below wave (X) of [B] low in Figure C4 (or X of (A) in Figure C3). Refer to Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian) for description of these variants. The end of October, 2006 is the check point for the alternative variants as well.

For more information refer to Monthly and Daily Wave Analyses.


Addition of April 10, 2006


Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs


Reference


Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
January 8, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 17:32 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction

Forecasted in Annual-05 price movement remained valid, having formed downtrend. The result is shown in Figure E1.



Figure E1. Final weekly chart of the WA, 2005.

Last year schematic forecast of EUR movement is shown here for illustrative purposes.

Current wave analysis

In Figure E2 EUR survey wave counting is shown.



Figure E2. Wave counting on the monthly chart.

Prices in the gray rectangle are synthesized and they are not unique. That is why CHF pattern, diagonal triangle, should be better used on the monthly chart (refer to USD/CHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006)), as EUR often repeats CHF behavior inversely.

In case this supposition is correct, wave V may be a simple or double zigzag. In Figure E2 its schematic movement is shown in the shape of zigzag.

Wave [B] may assume the shape of (expanded) flat or extended correction (refer to New Wave Pattern and New Classification of Extended Corrections in the FOREX Market.). Possible variants of development of correction [B] first waves are shown on the weekly chart (refer to Figure E3 below).



Figure E3. Wave counting on the weekly chart. The main scenario.

Price is supposed to begin to spin around the virtual skewer, described in September, 2005 in “Imaginary Skewer”.

According to the main variant, the dollar may keep strengthening till the beginning (or middle) of March, 2006 in the shape of double zigzag (a pair of double zigzags) with further trend reverse against the dollar. Approximate targets are specified in Key Levels, Which Open New Targets (in Russian).

Further price movement forming will depend on many factors, though in case completed three-wave pattern is formed after trend reverse by November, 2006, its high may be the second terminal point of many-month extended correction. In this case price movement forecast will be revised in accordance with the wave analysis and mutual waves proportions. Otherwise price advance may last at least till May, 2007.

Though the first low of this correction (or the final low of the whole correction) was already formed in November, 2005, in accordance with the alternative variants which are not confirmed yet (refer to Figure E4 below).



Figure E4. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Alternative variants.

Further price rise and its fixing above wave (X) of [B] high in Figure E4 (or X of (A) in Figure E3) will confirm the alternative scenarios. Refer to Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian) for the mirror description of these variants. The end of October, 2006 is the check point for the alternative variants as well.

For more information refer to Monthly and Daily Wave Analyses.


Addition of April 10, 2006


Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs


Reference


Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
January 8, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
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