Introduction
Judging by price movement against the dollar we may assume that suppositions, described in Annual-06, for the European currencies begin to fulfil. That is the second high (B) or (X) of the global correction will form “before November, 2006**.
As for USD/JPY, in the article new variant of wave counting is given, the previous scenario, described earlier, is not annulled yet.
Possible variants of price movement are described in the respective sections.
Note
This report reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release. This report is subject to change, it will be reflected in daily analyses or in additional articles in Wave analysis.
It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show probable price movements.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY (Wave Analysis)[*]CAD possible perspectives till 2008 and further (EWA of USD/CAD)[*]Japanese Triangles (EWA of EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA)[*]Two possible fourth waves till the mid of June (EWA)[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, September, 2006)[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, September, 2006)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, September, 2006)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, September, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comSeptember 2, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
Introduction
Price movement for August-September, projected in Monthly-0806, is developing in accordance with the forecast. For the result refer to Figure C1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0609/060902190228.gif
Figure C1. Final daily chart of the WA, August-September, 2006.
For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of CHF behavior is shown here.
Current wave analysis
For wave analysis in large time frames refer to:
[*]USDCHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006),[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA).According to the main scenario currently wave (B) or (X) is forming, it is assuming the shape of downward triple zigzag W-X-Y-X-Z.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0609/060902190328.gif
Figure C2. Wave counting on the daily chart.
Corrective wave of the final zigzag Z is supposed to be completed. First waves of the final impulse of Z are forming. Wave of Z ending is the critical level for this scenario.
1.18 resistance is the most preferable level for the triple zigzag (B) or (X) completion. Several main projected values of wave of Z ending are given in the chart, the area of projected values is marked with a red-yellow ellipse (Figure C2).
Wave of Z projection overlapping with the lower edge of the channel of zigzag Z and crossing with the mid line of the triple zigzag W-X-Y-X-Z channel may serve as an additional argument in favor of this area of calculated values.
Alternate area of calculated values of zigzag Z ending is given in the chart in grey color.
For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY (Wave Analysis)[*]CAD possible perspectives till 2008 and further (EWA of USD/CAD)[*]Japanese Triangles (EWA of EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA)[*]Two possible fourth waves till the mid of June (EWA)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, September, 2006[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, September, 2006)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, September, 2006)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, September, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comSeptember 2, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
Introduction
Price movement for August-September, projected in Monthly-0806, is developing in accordance with the forecast. For the result refer to Figure E1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0609/060902190502.gif
Figure E1. Final daily chart of the WA, August-September, 2006.
For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of EUR behavior is shown here.
Current wave analysis
For wave analysis in large time frames refer to:
[*]EURUSD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006),[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA).According to the main scenario currently wave (B) or (X) is forming, it is assuming the shape of upward triple zigzag W-X-Y-X-Z.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0609/060902190549.gif
Figure E2. Wave counting on the daily chart.
Corrective wave of the final zigzag Z is supposed to be completed. First waves of the final impulse of Z are forming. Wave of Z ending is the critical level for this scenario.
1.31 resistance is still the most preferable level for the triple zigzag (B) or (X) completion. Several main projected values of wave of Z ending are given in the chart, the area of projected values is marked with a red-yellow ellipse (Figure E2).
Wave of Z projection approaching to the lower edge of the channel of zigzag Z and crossing with the mid line of the triple zigzag W-X-Y-X-Z channel may serve as an additional argument in favor of this area of calculated values.
Alternate area of calculated values of zigzag Z ending is given in the chart in grey color.
For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY (Wave Analysis)[*]CAD possible perspectives till 2008 and further (EWA of USD/CAD)[*]Japanese Triangles (EWA of EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA)[*]Two possible fourth waves till the mid of June (EWA)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, September, 2006[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, September, 2006)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, September, 2006)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, September, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comSeptember 2, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 15:38 编辑 ]
Introduction
Price movement for August-September, projected in Monthly-0806, is developing in accordance with the forecast. For the result refer to Figure G1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0609/060902190737.gif
Figure G1. Final daily chart of the WA, August-September, 2006.
For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of GBP behavior is shown here.
Current wave analysis
For wave analysis in large time frames refer to:
[*]GBPUSD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006),[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA).According to the main scenario wave (B) or (X) is forming currently, it is assuming the shape of upward triple zigzag W-X-Y-X-Z.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0609/060902190819.gif
Figure G2. Wave counting on daily chart.
Corrective wave of the final zigzag Z is supposed to be completed. First waves of the final impulse of Z are forming. Wave of Z ending is the critical level for this scenario.
1.95 resistance is still the most preferable level for the triple zigzag (B) or (X) completion. Several main projected values of wave of Z ending are given in the chart, the area of projected values is marked with a red-yellow ellipse (Figure G2).
Wave of Z projection crossing with the mid line of the triple zigzag W-X-Y-X-Z channel may serve as an additional argument in favor of this area of calculated values.
For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY (Wave Analysis)[*]CAD possible perspectives till 2008 and further (EWA of USD/CAD)[*]Japanese Triangles (EWA of EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA)[*]Two possible fourth waves till the mid of June (EWA)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, September, 2006[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, September, 2006)[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, September, 2006)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, September, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comSeptember 2, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
Introduction
Price movement for August-September, projected in Monthly-0806, is developing in accordance with the forecast. For the result refer to Figure Y1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0609/060902191000.gif
Figure Y1. Final daily chart of the WA, August-September, 2006.
For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of JPY behavior is shown here.
Current wave analysis
For wave analysis in large time frames refer to:
[*]USDJPY (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006)[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA).The main variant of wave counting has been adjusted. Final wave of the horizontal triangle is supposed to be forming, it may assume the shape of zigzag (A)-(B)-(C), the most popular pattern for triangle waves (Figure Y2).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0609/060902191049.gif
Figure Y2. Wave counting on the weekly chart.
Wave (B) may be already completed in accordance with this scenario, the second leg (C) of the zigzag may be forming, it may assume the shape of the impulse or diagonal triangle.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0609/060902191137.gif
Figure Y3. Wave counting on the daily chart.
In case the supposition is correct, currently corrective wave 2 of upward impulse (C) is forming (Figure Y3). It is logical to expect its completion around 62% of Fibo retracement and 113.0 resistance level.
For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY (Wave Analysis)[*]CAD possible perspectives till 2008 and further (EWA of USD/CAD)[*]Japanese Triangles (EWA of EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA)[*]Two possible fourth waves till the mid of June (EWA)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, September, 2006[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, September, 2006)[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, September, 2006)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, September, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comSeptember 2, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 15:39 编辑 ]
Introduction
Suppositions given in Annual-06 are confirmed. Thus it is possible that corrective wave (B) or (X) of the global correction will complete its forming till November 2006.
USD/JPY price movement is slightly different from the movement of the European currencies, but at the end of October forming of the corrective wave ending (it may be wave 2) is also expected.
Most probable variants of price movement are described in the respective sections.
Note
This report reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release. This report is subject to change, it will be reflected in daily analyses or in additional articles in Wave analysis.
It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show probable price movements.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY (Wave Analysis)[*]CAD possible perspectives till 2008 and further (EWA of USD/CAD)[*]Japanese Triangles (EWA of EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA)[*]Two possible fourth waves till the mid of June (EWA)[*]USD/CAD fall may complete with an extension[*]Possible scenarios of USD strengthening (EWA of CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD)[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, October, 2006)[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, October, 2006)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, October, 2006)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, October, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comOctober 1, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd
Introduction
Early completion of correction projected in Monthly-0906 has not been confirmed. On the back of it at the mid of the month the forecast was adjusted according to the new data (refer to Possible scenarios of USD strengthening (EWA of CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD)). For the result refer to Figure C1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0610/061001173305.gif
Figure C1. Final daily chart of the WA, September-October, 2006.
For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of CHF two-week-old movement is given in the chart.
Current wave analysis
For wave analysis in large time frames refer to:
[*]USDCHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006),[*]Possible scenarios of USD strengthening (EWA of CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD).In the period of supposed global trend breakout the number of possible wave scenarios increases repeatedly. That is why some scenarios, described in August-September, are not annulled yet and still have right to exist. At the same time the following joined picture of the weekly charts (Figure C2) should be paid attention to.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0610/061001173354.gif
Figure C2. Joined picture of the weekly charts of the main dollar currency pairs.
It can be clearly seen that from the mid of May some wave construction has been forming in the charts (inside the ellipse), by its structure it is closer to a correction rather than an impulse translational motion of prices. In three cases out of four this correction may be presented in the shape of the horizontal triangle both by its inner structure and external shape.
Two possible variants of wave counting for CHF were described in details in article Possible scenarios of USD strengthening (EWA of CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD). Though strong unwillingness of the dollar to strengthen in the impulse mode increases USD/CHF chances that extended correction, which features are close to the features of the horizontal triangles, will form.
That is why after expected completion of this many-week correction final price thrust downwards against the dollar by ~ 600..800 points is logical to expect. In case the suppositions are correct upward reverse in favor of the dollar of the global trend, expected from the beginning of the year, will form above the key pulse point around the 20th of October (refer to Annual-06).
According to the accepted scenario currently wave (B) or (X) is forming, it is assuming the shape of downward triple zigzag W-X-Y-X-Z (Figure C3).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0610/061001173437.gif
Figure C3. Wave counting on the daily chart.
Second corrective wave X of the triple zigzag is supposed to be almost completed. I am sorry to say that it is not confirmed yet. Ending of the first wave X is the critical level for this scenario.
1.20...1.18 resistance level is still the most preferable level for triple zigzag (B) or (X) completion. Though the area of projected values should be adjusted once completion of wave XX is confirmed.
Wave Z projection crossing with the mid line of the trend channel of triple zigzag W-X-Y-X-Z may serve as an additional argument in favor of this area of calculated values.
For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.
Reference
[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY (Wave Analysis)[*]CAD possible perspectives till 2008 and further (EWA of USD/CAD)[*]Japanese Triangles (EWA of EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA)[*]Two possible fourth waves till the mid of June (EWA)[*]USD/CAD fall may complete with an extension[*]Possible scenarios of USD strengthening (EWA of CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, October, 2006[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, October, 2006)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, October, 2006)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, October, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comOctober 1, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd
Introduction
Early completion of correction projected in Monthly-0906 has not been confirmed. On the back of it at the mid of the month the forecast was adjusted according to the new data (refer to Possible scenarios of USD strengthening (EWA of CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD)). For the result refer to Figure E1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0610/061001173600.gif
Figure E1. Final daily chart of the WA, September-October, 2006.
For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of EUR two-week-old movement is given in the chart.
Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of CHF in large time frames refer to:
[*]Annual-06,[*]Possible scenarios of USD strengthening.In the period of supposed global trend breakout the number of possible wave scenarios increases repeatedly. That is why some scenarios, described in August-September, are not annulled yet and still have right to exist. At the same time the following joined picture of the weekly charts (Figure E2) should be paid attention to.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0610/061001173648.gif
Figure E2. Joined picture of the weekly charts of the main dollar currency pairs.
It can be clearly seen that from the mid of May some wave construction has been forming in the charts (inside the ellipse), by its structure it is closer to a correction rather than an impulse translational motion of prices. In three cases out of four this correction may be presented in the shape of the horizontal triangle both by its inner structure and external shape.
Possible variant of EUR wave counting was described in details in article Possible scenarios of USD strengthening (EWA of CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD). Though strong unwillingness of the dollar to strengthen in the impulse mode increases EUR/USD chances that a horizontal triangle or another extended horizontal correction, which features are close to the features of the horizontal triangles, will form.
That is why after expected completion of this many-week correction final price thrust upwards against the dollar by ~ 600..800 points is logical to expect. In case the suppositions are correct downward reverse in favor of the dollar of the global trend, expected from the beginning of the year, will form above the key pulse point around the 20th of October (refer to Annual-06).
According to the accepted scenario currently wave (B) or (X) is forming, it is assuming the shape of upward triple zigzag W-X-Y-X-Z (Figure E3).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0610/061001173738.gif
Figure E3. Wave counting on the daily chart.
Second corrective wave X of the triple zigzag is supposed to be almost completed. I am sorry to say that it is not confirmed yet. Ending of the first wave X is the critical level for this scenario. Moreover, labeling of the final highs of triangle , , is quite conventional, to maintain the status of the horizontal triangle this correction should not cross another critical level which goes through the ending of wave of XX.
1.31..1.32 resistance level is still the most preferable level for triple zigzag (B) or (X) completion. Though the area of projected values should be adjusted once completion of wave XX is confirmed.
Wave Z projection crossing with the mid line of the trend channel of triple zigzag W-X-Y-X-Z may serve as an additional argument in favor of this area of calculated values.
For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY (Wave Analysis)[*]CAD possible perspectives till 2008 and further (EWA of USD/CAD)[*]Japanese Triangles (EWA of EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA)[*]Two possible fourth waves till the mid of June (EWA)[*]USD/CAD fall may complete with an extension[*]Possible scenarios of USD strengthening (EWA of CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, October, 2006[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, October, 2006)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, October, 2006)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, October, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comOctober 1, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 15:41 编辑 ]
Introduction
Early completion of correction projected in Monthly-0906 has not been confirmed. On the back of it at the mid of the month the forecast was adjusted according to the new data (refer to Possible scenarios of USD strengthening (EWA of CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD)). For the result refer to Figure G1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0610/061001173900.gif
Figure G1. Final daily chart of the WA, September-October, 2006.
For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of GBP two-week-old movement is given in the chart.
Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of GBP in large time frames refer to:
[*]Annual-06,[*]Possible scenarios of USD strengthening (EWA of CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD).In the period of supposed global trend breakout the number of possible wave scenarios increases repeatedly. That is why some scenarios, described in August-September, are not annulled yet and still have right to exist. At the same time the following joined picture of the weekly charts (Figure G2) should be paid attention to.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0610/061001173945.gif
Figure G2. Joined picture of the weekly charts of the main dollar currency pairs.
It can be clearly seen that from the mid of May some wave construction has been forming in the charts (inside the ellipse), by its structure it is closer to a correction rather than an impulse translational motion of prices. In three cases out of four this correction may be presented in the shape of the horizontal triangle both by its inner structure and external shape.
Possible variants of GBP wave counting were described in details in article Possible scenarios of USD strengthening (EWA of CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD). Though current wave pattern may be presented in the shape of the horizontal triangle or another extended correction, which features are close to the features of the horizontal triangles.
That is why after expected completion of this many-week correction final price thrust upwards against the dollar by ~ 600..800 points is logical to expect. In case the suppositions are correct downward reverse in favor of the dollar of the global trend, expected from the beginning of the year, will form above the key pulse point around the 20th of October (refer to Annual-06).
According to the accepted scenario currently wave (B) or (X) is forming, it is assuming the shape of upward double (or triple?) zigzag W-X-Y (Figure G3).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0610/061001174031.gif
Figure G3. Wave counting on the daily chart.
Corrective wave of Y, which is assuming the shape of the horizontal triangle inside the final zigzag Y, is supposed to be almost completed. It is not confirmed yet. Ending of wave X is the critical level for this scenario. Moreover, labeling of the final highs of triangle (c), (d), (e) is quite conventional, to maintain the status of the horizontal triangle this correction should not cross another critical level which goes through the ending of wave (a) of .
1.92..1.95 resistance level is still the most preferable level for supposed double (or triple?) zigzag (B) or (X) completion. Though the area of projected values should be adjusted once completion of wave of Y is confirmed.
Wave Y projection crossing with the mid line of the trend channel of double zigzag W-X-Y may serve as an additional argument in favor of this area of calculated values.
For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY (Wave Analysis)[*]CAD possible perspectives till 2008 and further (EWA of USD/CAD)[*]Japanese Triangles (EWA of EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY[*]Two possible fourth waves till the mid of June (EWA)[*]USD/CAD fall may complete with an extension[*]Possible scenarios of USD strengthening (EWA of CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, October, 2006[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, October, 2006)[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, October, 2006)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, October, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comOctober 1, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd
Introduction
Early completion of correction projected in Monthly-0906 has not been confirmed. On the back of it at the mid of the month the forecast was adjusted according to the new data (refer to Possible scenarios of USD strengthening (EWA of CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD)). For the result refer to Figure Y1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0610/061001174159.gif
Figure Y1. Final daily chart of the WA, September-October, 2006.
For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of JPY two-week-old movement is given in the chart.
Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of JPY in large time frames refer to:
[*]Annual-06,[*]Possible scenarios of USD strengthening (EWA of CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD),In the period of supposed global trend breakout the number of possible wave scenarios increases repeatedly. That is why some scenarios, described in August-September, still have right to exist. At the same time the following joined picture of the weekly charts (Figure Y2) should be paid attention to.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0610/061001174243.gif
Figure Y2. Joined picture of the weekly charts of the main dollar currency pairs.
It can be clearly seen that from the mid of May some wave construction has been forming in the charts (inside the ellipse), by its structure it is closer to a correction rather than an impulse translational motion of prices. In three cases out of four this correction may be presented in the shape of the horizontal triangle both by its inner structure and external shape.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0610/061001174336.gif
Figure Y3. Weekly chart of USD/JPY.
JPY weekly chart differs slightly from this group of the dollar pairs due to JPY lunge from May 2006. In this case the nearest price retracement against the dollar is also required. Moreover, the variant of extended correction forming (supposed wave (B)), which began in December 2005, is not annulled yet.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0610/061001174423.gif
Figure Y4. Wave counting on the daily chart.
Current variant of JPY wave counting was described in details in article Possible scenarios of USD strengthening (Figure Y4).
According to the accepted scenario currently corrective wave 2 is forming. It is assuming the shape of the extended flat. That is why after expected completion of triple zigzag of 2 final price thrust against the dollar (by ~ 600 points) is logical to expect. In case the suppositions are correct global trend reversal in favor of the dollar, expected from the beginning of the year, will form above the key pulse point around the 20th of October (refer to Annual-06).
1.13..1.12 resistance level is still the most preferable level for correction 2 completion. Though the area of projected values should be adjusted once completion of wave of 2 is confirmed.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0610/061001174511.gif
Figure Y5. Wave counting on the daily chart. Alternate scenario.
In Figure Y5 one of possible alternate variants is given. In accordance with it corrective wave (B) still may keep forming (till the critical level (in this case it is the ending of the first wave link X) is not broken) and price may fall to 111.0..108.0.
Note that the final upward construction of JPY may be treated both as a valid pattern of the motive phase of the market (diagonal triangle as the final leg of zigzag X, Figure Y5) and as a correction (triple zigzag as wave of extended flat 2, Figure Y4) due to its wave formula 3-3-3-3-3. In both cases the nearest fall of the dollar is expected.
For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY (Wave Analysis)[*]CAD possible perspectives till 2008 and further (EWA of USD/CAD)[*]Japanese Triangles (EWA of EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY[*]Two possible fourth waves till the mid of June (EWA)[*]USD/CAD fall may complete with an extension[*]Possible scenarios of USD strengthening (EWA of CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, October, 2006[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, October, 2006)[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, October, 2006)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, October, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comOctober 1, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 15:43 编辑 ]
Introduction
Unfortunately, supposed completed corrective three pattern as the second wave of the global correction has not formed by November 2006 in spite of certain conditions. Another possible extra limit date of wave (B) completion, also described in Annual-06, is probable in spring-summer of 2007. Possible survey scenarios were described in details in article Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007.
Most probable variants of price movement are described in the respective sections.
Note
This report reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release. This report is subject to change, it will be reflected in daily analyses or in additional articles in Wave analysis.
It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show probable price movements.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY (Wave Analysis)[*]CAD possible perspectives till 2008 and further (EWA of USD/CAD)[*]Japanese Triangles (EWA of EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA)[*]Two possible fourth waves till the mid of June (EWA)[*]Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, November, 2006)[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, November, 2006)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, November, 2006)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, November, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comOctober 29, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd
Introduction
USD fall, supposed in Monthly-1006, began a bit later than expected. For the result refer to Figure C1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0610/061029053830.gif
Figure C1. Final daily chart of the WA, October, 2006.
For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of CHF two-week-old movement is given in the chart.
Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of CHF in large time frames refer to:
[*]Annual-06,[*]Possible scenarios of USD strengthening (EWA of CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD),[*]Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007.Unfortunately, supposed completed corrective three pattern as wave (B) or (X) of the global correction has not formed by November 2006. Another possible extra limit date of this wave completion, also described in Annual-06, is probable in spring-summer of 2007. Possible survey scenarios were described in details in article Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007.
According to the accepted scenario, currently the final part of wave (B) or (X) is forming, it may assume the shape of downward triple zigzag W-X-Y-X-Z (Figure C2). At the same time forming of more complicated zigzag structure is also possible.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0610/061029053918.gif
Figure C2. Wave counting on the daily chart.
Completion of the second corrective wave X is not confirmed yet, on the back of it a variety of possible variants of further movement arises. It is possible that this corrective wave will keep forming and transform into the triple three with a slight skew against the dominant trend.
Supposed wedge (i)?, formed last week, is an argument in favor of further downtrend, it may be treated as an indication of possible powerful trend.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY (Wave Analysis)[*]CAD possible perspectives till 2008 and further (EWA of USD/CAD)[*]Japanese Triangles (EWA of EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA)[*]Two possible fourth waves till the mid of June (EWA)[*]Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, November, 2006[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, November, 2006)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, November, 2006)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, November, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comOctober 29, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya
Introduction
USD fall, supposed in Monthly-1006, began a bit later than expected. For the result refer to Figure E1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0610/061029054046.gif
Figure E1. Final daily chart of the WA, October, 2006.
For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of EUR two-week-old movement is given in the chart.
Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of EUR in large time frames refer to:
[*]Annual-06,[*]Possible scenarios of USD strengthening (EWA of CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD),[*]Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007.Unfortunately, supposed completed corrective three pattern as wave (B) or (X) of the global correction has not formed by November 2006. Another possible extra limit date of this wave completion, also described in Annual-06, is probable in spring-summer of 2007. Possible survey scenarios were described in details in article Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007.
According to the accepted scenario, currently the final part of wave (B) or (X) is forming, it may assume the shape of upward triple zigzag W-X-Y-X-Z (Figure E2). At the same time forming of more complicated zigzag structure is also possible.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0610/061029054146.gif
Figure E2. Wave counting on the daily chart.
Completion of the second corrective wave X is not confirmed yet, on the back of it a variety of possible variants of further movement arises. It is possible that this corrective wave will keep forming and transform into the triple three, horizontal or skewed triangle.
Supposed wedge (i)?, formed last week, is an argument in favor of further uptrend, it may be treated as an indication of possible powerful trend.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY (Wave Analysis)[*]CAD possible perspectives till 2008 and further (EWA of USD/CAD)[*]Japanese Triangles (EWA of EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA)[*]Two possible fourth waves till the mid of June (EWA)[*]Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, November, 2006[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, November, 2006)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, November, 2006)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, November, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comOctober 29, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 15:44 编辑 ]
Introduction
USD fall, supposed in Monthly-1006, began a bit later than expected. For the result refer to Figure G1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0610/061029054325.gif
Figure G1. Final daily chart of the WA, October, 2006.
For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of GBP two-week-old movement is given in the chart.
Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of GBP in large time frames refer to:
[*]Annual-06,[*]Possible scenarios of USD strengthening (EWA of CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD),[*]Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007.Unfortunately, supposed completed corrective three pattern as wave (B) or (X) of the global correction has not formed by November 2006. Another possible extra limit date of this wave completion, also described in Annual-06, is probable in spring-summer of 2007. Possible survey scenarios were described in details in article Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007.
According to the accepted scenario, currently the final part of wave (B) or (X) is forming, it may assume the shape of upward triple zigzag W-X-Y-X-Z (Figure G2). At the same time forming of more complicated zigzag structure is also possible.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0610/061029054413.gif
Figure G2. Wave counting on the daily chart.
Completion of the second corrective wave X is not confirmed yet, on the back of it a variety of possible variants of further movement arises. It is possible that this corrective wave will keep forming and transform into the triple three, horizontal or skewed triangle.
Supposed impulse (i)?, formed last week, is an argument in favor of further uptrend, it may be treated as an indication of possible powerful trend.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY (Wave Analysis)[*]CAD possible perspectives till 2008 and further (EWA of USD/CAD)[*]Japanese Triangles (EWA of EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA)[*]Two possible fourth waves till the mid of June (EWA)[*]Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, November, 2006[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, November, 2006)[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, November, 2006)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, November, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comOctober 29, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya
Introduction
USD fall, supposed in Monthly-1006, began a bit later than expected. For the result refer to Figure Y1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0610/061029054539.gif
Figure Y1. Final daily chart of the WA, October, 2006.
For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of JPY two-week-old movement is given in the chart.
Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of JPY in large time frames refer to:
[*]Annual-06,[*]Possible scenarios of USD strengthening (EWA of CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD),[*]Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007.Unfortunately, supposed completed corrective three pattern as wave (B) or (X) of the global correction has not formed by November 2006. Another possible extra limit date of this wave completion, also described in Annual-06, is probable in spring-summer of 2007. Possible survey scenarios were described in details in article Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007.
According to the accepted scenario, currently the final part of wave (B) or (X) is forming, it may assume the shape of flat A-B-C or double three W-X-Y (Figure Y2). At the same time forming of more extended zigzag structure is also possible.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0611/061103170851.gif
Figure Y2. Wave counting on the daily chart.
Wave B or X completion is not confirmed yet, on the back of it a variety of possible variants of further movement arises. It is possible that this corrective wave will keep forming and transform into a double zigzag.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY (Wave Analysis)[*]CAD possible perspectives till 2008 and further (EWA of USD/CAD)[*]Japanese Triangles (EWA of EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA)[*]Two possible fourth waves till the mid of June (EWA)[*]Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, November, 2006[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, November, 2006)[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, November, 2006)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, November, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comOctober 29, 2006
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 15:45 编辑 ]
Introduction
As it was supposed in Annual-06, if completed corrective three pattern is not formed by November 2006, USD decline may continue till May 2007. That is why at the end of October in article Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007 current wave picture was analysed, possible scenarios of further movement of the main currency pairs were analysed. The following forecasts were based on this article.
The results of the previous forecast and most probable variants of price movement in December are described in the respective sections.
Note
This report reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release. This report is subject to change, it will be reflected in daily analyses or in additional articles in Wave analysis.
It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show probable price movements.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY (Wave Analysis)[*]CAD possible perspectives till 2008 and further (EWA of USD/CAD)[*]Japanese Triangles (EWA of EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA)[*]Two possible fourth waves till the mid of June (EWA)[*]Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, December, 2006)[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, December, 2006)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, December, 2006)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, December, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA) (in Russian)[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comDecember 3, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
Introduction
USD fall, supposed in Monthly-1106, took place in accordance with the forecast. For the result refer to Figure C1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0612/061203191831.gif
Figure C1. Final daily chart of the WA, November, 2006.
For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of CHF last month movement is given in the chart.
Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of CHF in large time frames refer to:
[*]Annual-06,[*]Possible scenarios of USD strengthening (EWA of CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD),[*]Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0612/061203191920.gif
Figure C2. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Within the last several weeks of November almost completed downward impulse formed, which may be the third wave (iii) of the first leg of the final zigzag Z (refer to Figures C2 and C3). Thus, downward movement of the last month and a half may be presented in the shape of the uncompleted impulse .
If the supposition is correct, confirmation of wave (iii) completion, which still may keep forming, should be expected, as well as forming of the fourth wave (iv). That is corrective structure will form in favor of USD.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0612/061203191959.gif
Figure C3. Wave counting on the weekly chart.
In this case further price movement may finish supposed triple zigzag as it is shown in Figure C3.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0612/061203192042.gif
Figure C4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Alternate variant.
Though downtrend of the last month and a half may be presented in the shape of almost completed zigzag Z.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0612/061203192124.gif
Figure C5. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Alternate variant.
If price chooses this scenario of further movement, reversal of the long-term trend in favor of the dollar will start forming in the nearest future. That is impulse structure may form in favor of the dollar.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY (Wave Analysis)[*]CAD possible perspectives till 2008 and further (EWA of USD/CAD)[*]Japanese Triangles (EWA of EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA)[*]Two possible fourth waves till the mid of June (EWA)[*]Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, December, 2006[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, December, 2006)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, December, 2006)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, December, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comDecember 3, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational
Introduction
USD fall, supposed in Monthly-1106, took place in accordance with the forecast. For the result refer to Figure E1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0612/061203192250.gif
Figure E1. Final daily chart of the WA, November, 2006.
For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of EUR last month movement is given in the chart.
Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of EUR in large time frames refer to:
[*]Annual-06,[*]Possible scenarios of USD strengthening (EWA of CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD),[*]Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0612/061203192447.gif
Figure E2. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Within the last several weeks of November almost completed upward impulse formed, which may be the third wave (iii) of the first leg of the final zigzag Z (refer to Figures E2 and E3). Thus, upward movement of the last month and a half may be presented in the shape of the uncompleted impulse .
If the supposition is correct, confirmation of wave (iii) completion, which still may keep forming, should be expected in December, as well as forming of the fourth wave (iv). That is corrective structure will form in favor of USD.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0612/061203192534.gif
Figure E3. Wave counting on the weekly chart.
In this case further price movement may finish supposed triple zigzag as it is shown in Figure E3.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0612/061203192616.gif
Figure E4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Alternate variant.
Though uptrend of the last month and a half may be presented in the shape of almost completed zigzag Z.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0612/061203192657.gif
Figure E5. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Alternate variant.
If price chooses this scenario of further movement, reversal of the long-term trend in favor of the dollar will start forming in the nearest future. That is impulse structure may form in favor of the dollar.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY (Wave Analysis)[*]CAD possible perspectives till 2008 and further (EWA of USD/CAD)[*]Japanese Triangles (EWA of EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA)[*]Two possible fourth waves till the mid of June (EWA)[*]Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, December, 2006[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, December, 2006)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, December, 2006)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, December, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comDecember 3, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 15:46 编辑 ]
Introduction
USD fall, supposed in Monthly-1106, took place in accordance with the forecast. For the result refer to Figure G1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0612/061203192830.gif
Figure G1. Final daily chart of the WA, November, 2006.
For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of GBP last month movement is given in the chart.
Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of GBP in large time frames refer to:
[*]Annual-06,[*]Possible scenarios of USD strengthening (EWA of CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD),[*]Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0612/061203192926.gif
Figure G2. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Within the last several weeks of November almost completed upward impulse formed, which may be the third wave (iii) of the first leg of the final zigzag Z (refer to Figures G2 and G3). Thus, upward movement of the last month and a half may be presented in the shape of the uncompleted impulse .
If the supposition is correct, confirmation of wave (iii) completion, which still may keep forming, should be expected in December, as well as forming of the fourth wave (iv). That is corrective structure will form in favor of USD.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0612/061203193012.gif
Figure G3. Wave counting on the weekly chart.
In this case further price movement may finish supposed triple zigzag as it is shown in Figure G3. There are several variants of this upward wave structure marking, on the whole they do not contradict each other.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0612/061203193101.gif
Figure G4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Alternate variant.
Though uptrend of the last month and a half may be presented in the shape of almost completed zigzag Z.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0612/061203193142.gif
Figure G5. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Alternate variant.
If price chooses this scenario of further movement, reversal of the long-term trend in favor of the dollar will start forming in the nearest future. That is impulse structure may form in favor of the dollar.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY (Wave Analysis)[*]CAD possible perspectives till 2008 and further (EWA of USD/CAD)[*]Japanese Triangles (EWA of EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA)[*]Two possible fourth waves till the mid of June (EWA)[*]Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, December, 2006[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, December, 2006)[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, December, 2006)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, December, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comDecember 3, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Introduction
USD fall, supposed in Monthly-1106, took place in accordance with the forecast. For the result refer to Figure Y1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0612/061203193325.gif
Figure Y1. Final daily chart of the WA, November, 2006.
For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of JPY last month movement is given in the chart.
Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of JPY in large time frames refer to:
[*]Annual-06,[*]Possible scenarios of USD strengthening (EWA of CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD),[*]Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0612/061203193408.gif
Figure Y2. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Within the last several weeks of November almost completed downward impulse formed, which may be the final wave (v) of the first impulse of the final wave C of flat (B) (refer to Figures Y2 and Y3). Thus, downward movement of the last month and a half may be presented in the shape of almost completed impulse .
If the supposition is correct, confirmation of wave completion, which still may keep extending, should be expected in December, as well as forming of the second wave . That is corrective structure will form in favor of USD.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0612/061203193756.gif
Figure Y3. Wave counting on the weekly chart.
In this case further price movement may finish supposed flat as it is shown in Figure Y3.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0612/061203194025.gif
Figure Y4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Alternate variant.
Though the last downward movement may complete the corrective pattern against the dollar, signifying beginning of the forthcoming rally in favor of USD.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0612/061203193837.gif
Figure Y5. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Alternate variant.
The second wave 2 of upward final impulse (C) of of IV, which has assumed the shape of the running flat, may be almost completed (or completed, confirmation is expected).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0612/061203194133.gif
Figure Y6. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Alternate variant.
Though the same downward structure may be presented in the shape of the double zigzag, with no violation of the rules.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0612/061203194215.gif
Figure Y7. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Alternate variant.
In this case it is logical to expect either transformation of the downward wave into the diagonal triangle and further forming according to the scenario in Figure Y5 (grey lines) or forming of upward wave (C) of of IV in the shape of the diagonal triangle (red line).
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY (Wave Analysis)[*]CAD possible perspectives till 2008 and further (EWA of USD/CAD)[*]Japanese Triangles (EWA of EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA)[*]Two possible fourth waves till the mid of June (EWA)[*]Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, December, 2006[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, December, 2006)[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, December, 2006)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, December, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comDecember 3, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 15:49 编辑 ]
Introduction
In Annual-07 it was supposed that
« confirmation of completion of more than annual prices movement against the dollar (that is the fact of completion of wave (B) or (X) of for the main European currencies) is the main event expected in 2007 from the point of view prices movement forecasting.»
I don't think it will be confirmed in January, however the wave structure, formed this month, can suggest the preferred scenario of further prices movement of the pairs under consideration.
Most probable variants of prices movement for January 2007 are given in the correspondent articles.
Note
This report reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release. This report is subject to change, it will be reflected in daily analyses or in additional articles in Wave analysis.
It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show probable price movements.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2007[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007[*]USD/CHF (Annual, 2007)[*]EUR/USD (Annual, 2007)[*]GBP/USD (Annual, 2007)[*]USD/JPY (Annual, 2007)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA) (in Russian)[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJanuary 14, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
Introduction
For the results for December 2006 refer to article Results for December
Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of CHF in large time frames refer to:
[*]Annual-07,[*]Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0701/070114175701.gif
Figure C1. Wave counting on the daily chart. The main variant.
Downward wave (B)? keeps forming in accordance with the main variant. I will keep to this scenario until its completion is confirmed.
Upward zigzag (a)-(b)-(c) with approximately equal legs and completed wave structure has formed from December 2006. If supposed wave (c) of does not start to extend, its current ending may be the ending of the whole correction of Y or its first main sub-wave. In both cases according to the main scenario the nearest most probable movement is downward.
Supposed wave of Y ending is the confirmatory level. If the price breaks the lower edge of upward trend channel and falls below the confirmatory level at 1.1879 (1.2121) the accepted scenario will be confirmed dramatically.
Supposed wave X of (B) ending is the critical level of the main scenario. If price rises above 1.2768 one of the alternate variants will take effect (refer to Figure C2).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0701/070114175749.gif
Figure C2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Alternate variant.
According to the alternate variant uptrend from December 2006 may be treated as the first waves of upward wave (C) or (Y). They may be either completed zigzag W or the first three waves of uncompleted impulse 1.
Ending of supposed wave XX of (B) or (X) at 1.2768 is the confirmatory level. 1.2121 and 1.1879 are the critical levels.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2007[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2007[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2007)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2007)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2007)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA) (in Russian)[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJanuary 14, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd
Introduction
For the results for December 2006 refer to article Results for December
Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of EUR in large time frames refer to:
[*]Annual-07,[*]Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0701/070114175908.gif
Figure E1. Wave counting on the daily chart. The main variant.
Upward wave (B)? keeps forming in accordance with the main variant. I will keep to this scenario until its completion is confirmed.
Downward zigzag (a)-(b)-(c) with approximately equal legs ((c)=~(a)*1.27) and completed wave structure has formed from December 2006. If supposed wave (c) of does not start to extend, its current ending may be the ending of the whole correction of Y or its first main sub-wave. In both cases according to the main scenario the nearest most probable movement is upward.
Supposed wave of Y ending is the confirmatory level. If the price breaks the upper edge of downward trend channel and rises above the confirmatory level at 1.3361 (1.3294) the accepted scenario will be confirmed dramatically.
Supposed wave X of (B) ending is the critical level of the main scenario. If price falls below 1.2482 one of the alternate variants will take effect (refer to Figure E2).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0701/070114175955.gif
Figure E2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Alternate variant.
According to the alternate variant downtrend from December 2006 may be treated as the first waves of downward wave (C) or (Y). They may be either completed zigzag W or the first three waves of uncompleted impulse 1.
Ending of supposed wave XX of (B) or (X) at 1.2482 is the confirmatory level. 1.3294 and 1.3361 are the critical levels.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2007[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2007[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2007)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2007)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2007)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA) (in Russian)[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJanuary 14, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Lt
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 15:50 编辑 ]
Introduction
For the results for December 2006 refer to article Results for December
Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of GBP in large time frames refer to:
[*]Annual-07,[*]Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0701/070114180131.gif
Figure G1. Wave counting on the daily chart. The main variant.
Upward wave (B)? keeps forming in accordance with the main variant. I will keep to this scenario until its completion is confirmed.
Downward zigzag (a)-(b)-(c) with approximately equal legs ((c)=~(a)*1.27) and completed wave structure has formed from December 2006. If supposed wave (c) of does not start to extend, its current ending may be the ending of the whole correction of Y or its first main sub-wave. In both cases according to the main scenario the nearest most probable movement is upward.
Supposed wave of Y ending is the confirmatory level. If the price breaks the upper edge of downward trend channel and rises above the confirmatory level at 1.9845 (1.9749) the accepted scenario will be confirmed dramatically.
Supposed wave X of (B) ending is the critical level of the main scenario. If price falls below 1.8515 one of the alternate variants will take effect (refer to Figure G2).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0701/070114181218.gif
Figure G2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Alternate variant.
According to the alternate variant downtrend from December 2006 may be treated as the first waves of downward wave (C) or (Y). They may be either completed zigzag W or the first three waves of uncompleted impulse 1.
Ending of supposed wave XX of (B) or (X) at 1.8515 is the confirmatory level. 1.9749 and 1.9845 are the critical levels.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2007[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2007[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2007)[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2007)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2007)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA) (in Russian)[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJanuary 14, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd
Introduction
For the results for December 2006 refer to article Results for December
Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of JPY in large time frames refer to:
[*]Annual-07,[*]Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0701/070114180401.gif
Figure Y1. Wave counting on the daily chart. The main variant.
Corrective wave (B)? keeps forming in accordance with the main variant. Wave B of (B) is supposed to have assumed the shape of the ordinary zigzag, though, unfortunately, its completion is not confirmed yet.
Price fall below the confirmatory level at 114.42 is the confirmation of this scenario. The pattern, which shape is being assumed by supposed wave (B), may be specified with the help of downtrend wave structure.
There is no clear-cut critical level in the main variant. Though if uptrend continues in the impulsive mode, one of the alternate scenarios may take effect (refer to Figure Y2).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0701/070114181320.gif
Figure Y2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Alternate variant.
According to the alternate variant uptrend from May 2006 may be treated as upward impulse or diagonal triangle (С) of . 114.42 is the critical level.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2007[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2007[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2007)[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2007)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2007)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA) (in Russian)[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJanuary 14, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 15:52 编辑 ]
Introduction
In Annual-07 it was supposed that
« confirmation of completion of more than annual prices movement against the dollar (that is the fact of completion of wave (B) or (X) of for the main European currencies) is the main event expected in 2007 from the point of view prices movement forecasting.»
Unfortunately, neither the main variant nor the alternate one has been confirmed. The wave picture can be cleared in February.
Most probable variants of prices movement for February 2007 are given in the correspondent articles.
Note
This report reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release. This report is subject to change, it will be reflected in daily analyses or in additional articles in Wave analysis.
It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show probable price movements.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2007[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2007[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2007)[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2007)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2007)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2007)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comFebruary 4, 2007The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd
Introduction
It is more probable that price movement, supposed in Monthly-0107, was forming in accordance with the alternate variant. For the results refer to Figure C1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0702/070204191604.gif
Figure C1. Final daily chart of the forecast for January, 2007.
For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of CHF movement three weeks ago is given in the chart.
Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of CHF in large time frames refer to:
[*]Annual-07,[*]Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0702/070204191648.gif
Figure C2. Wave counting on the daily chart. The main variant.
According to the main variant downward wave (B)? or (X) keeps forming. I will keep to this scenario until its completion is confirmed.
Upward double zigzag (w)-(x)-(y) may have formed after December 2006. If the critical level is not broken, its current ending may be the ending of the whole correction of Y or only its first main sub-wave. In both cases according to the main scenario the nearest most probable movement is downward.
Ending of supposed wave of Y is the confirmatory level. Breakout of the lower edge of the upward trend channel and price fall below the confirmatory level 1.1879 (1.2121) will confirm the accepted scenario vividly.
Supposed wave X of (B) ending is the critical level of the main scenario. If price rises above 1.2768 one of the alternate variants will take effect (refer to Figure C3).
Breakout of 1.2563 critical level does not mean theoretically that the main variant becomes invalid, as it may trigger wave forming in the shape of some zigzag structure. Though in this case chances of the alternate scenarios increase greatly (refer to Figure C3).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0702/070204191731.gif
Figure C3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Alternate variant.
According to the alternate variant uptrend from December 2006 may be treated as the first waves (C) or (Y). For example, they can be the first waves of impulse 1 or A.
Ending of supposed wave XX of (B) or (X) at 1.2768 is the confirmatory level. 1.1879 is the critical level.
In case the supposition is correct, correction 2 or B can complete above the key pulse point on March 9, 2007 around strong resistance at 1.22.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
[*]FOREX forecast, 2007[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007[*]Monthly-0207[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2007)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2007)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2007)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comFebruary 4, 2007The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
Introduction
It is more probable that price movement, supposed in Monthly-0107 was forming in accordance with the alternate variant. For the results refer to Figure E1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0702/070204191857.gif
Figure E1. Final daily chart of the forecast for January, 2007.
For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of EUR movement three weeks ago is given in the chart.
Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of EUR in large time frames refer to:
[*]Annual-07,[*]Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0702/070204191942.gif
Figure E2. Wave counting on the daily chart. The main variant.
According to the main variant upward wave (B)? or (X) keeps forming. I will keep to this scenario until its completion is confirmed.
Downward double zigzag (w)-(x)-(y) may have formed after December 2006. If the critical level is not broken, its current ending may be the ending of the whole correction of Y or only its first main sub-wave. In both cases according to the main scenario the nearest most probable movement is upward.
Ending of supposed wave of Y is the confirmatory level. Breakout of the upper edge of the downward trend channel and price rise above the confirmatory level 1.3361 (1.3294) will confirm the accepted scenario vividly.
Supposed wave X of (B) ending is the critical level of the main scenario. If price falls below 1.2482 one of the alternate variants will take effect (refer to Figure E3).
Breakout of 1.2877 critical level does not mean theoretically that the main variant becomes invalid, as it may trigger wave forming in the shape of some zigzag structure. Though in this case chances of the alternate scenarios increase greatly (refer to Figure E3).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0702/070204192050.gif
Figure E3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Alternate variant.
According to the alternate variant downtrend from December 2006 may be treated as the first waves (C) or (Y). For example, they can be the first waves of impulse 1 or A.
Ending of supposed wave XX of (B) or (X) at 1.2482 is the confirmatory level. 1.3361 is the critical level.
In case the supposition is correct, correction 2 or B can complete above the key pulse point on March 9, 2007 around strong resistance at 1.32.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
[*]FOREX forecast, 2007[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007[*]Monthly-0207[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2007)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2007)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2007)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comFebruary 4, 2007The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 15:56 编辑 ]
Introduction
Price movement, supposed in Monthly-0107 was forming in accordance with the forecast. For the results refer to Figure G1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0702/070204192217.gif
Figure G1. Final daily chart of the forecast for January, 2007.
For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of GBP movement three weeks ago is given in the chart.
Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of GBP in large time frames refer to:
[*]Annual-07,[*]Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0702/070204192303.gif
Figure G2. Wave counting on the daily chart. The main variant.
According to the main variant upward wave (B)? or (X) keeps forming. I will keep to this scenario until its completion is confirmed.
Some horizontal correction has been forming from December 2006, which has been assuming the shape of the double three. It is more probable that once it is completed price will keep rising.
The highest figure of the current correction (wave (x) of of Y ending) is the confirmatory level. Price rise above the confirmatory level at 1.9913 will confirm the accepted scenario vividly.
Supposed wave X of (B) ending is the critical level of the main scenario. If price falls below 1.8515 one of the alternate variants will take effect (refer to Figure G3).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0702/070204192350.gif
Figure G3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Alternate variant.
According to the alternate scenario wave (B) or (X) completed at the end of January. Further downtrend can be treated as the first waves (C) or (Y). They can be the first waves 1 or A.
Ending of supposed wave XX of (B) or (X) at 1.8515 (1.9261) is the confirmatory level. 1.9913 is the critical level.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
[*]FOREX forecast, 2007[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2007[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2007)[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2007)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2007)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comFebruary 4, 2007The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
Introduction
Upward impulse, supposed in Monthly-0107, kept forming, having formed the high a bit above the expected value. Thus, apprehension that wave B of (B) is uncompleted, is confirmed. For the result refer to Figure Y1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0702/070204192517.gif
Figure Y1. Final daily chart of the forecast for January, 2007.
For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of JPY movement three weeks ago is given in the chart.
Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of JPY in large time frames refer to:
[*]Annual-07,[*]Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0702/070204192602.gif
Figure Y2. Wave counting on the daily chart. The main variant.
According to the main variant corrective wave (B)? keeps forming. Wave B of (B) is supposed to have assumed the shape of the simple zigzag.
Price breakout of the lower edge of the trend channel and its fall below the confirmatory level at 114.42 will confirm the chosen scenario. Wave structure of the downtrend can help to specify, which shape supposed wave (B) is assuming.
Ending of supposed wave B of (B) is the critical level of the main variant. Price rise above 122.16 does not mean theoretically that the main variant becomes invalid, as it may trigger wave of B forming in the shape of some impulse, different by its configuration. Though in this case chances of the alternate scenarios increase greatly (refer to Figure Y3).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0702/070204192648.gif
Figure Y3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Alternate variant.
According to the alternate variant uptrend from May 2006 can be treated as an upward impulse or diagonal triangle (C) of . 114.42 is the critical level.
In case the supposition is correct, correction can complete above the key pulse point on March 9, 2007 around strong resistance at 118.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
[*]FOREX forecast, 2007[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2007[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2007)[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2007)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2007)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comFebruary 4, 2007The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 15:57 编辑 ]
Introduction
In Annual-07 it was supposed that
«…confirmation of completion of more than annual prices movement against the dollar (that is the fact of completion of wave (B) or (X) of for the main European currencies) is the main event expected in 2007 from the point of view prices movement forecasting»
Possible completion of USD fall, which lasts almost a year and a half, may be expected in May 2007. According to one of the alternate variants this fall completion may be expected at the beginning of April 2007 (April 6-9, 2007). That is why April may be a critical month full of surprises.
Most probable variants of prices movement for April 2007 are given in the correspondent articles.
Note
This report reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release. This report is subject to change, it will be reflected in daily analyses or in additional articles in Wave analysis.
It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show probable price movements.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2007[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, April, 2007)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, April, 2007)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, April, 2007)[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, April, 2007)[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007[*]Check Point. Normal Flight.[*]Wave analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market [*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comMarch 31, 2007Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
Possible completion of USD fall, which lasts almost a year and a half, may be expected in May 2007. According to one of the alternate variants this fall may complete at the beginning of April 2007 (April 6-9, 2007). That is why April may be a critical month full of surprises. Introduction
Price movement, supposed in Monthly-0307 was forming in accordance with the forecast. For the results refer to Figure E1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/2/26165_1443.gif
Figure E1. Final daily chart of the forecast for March, 2007.
For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of EUR movement a month ago is given in the chart.
Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of EUR in large time frames refer to Annual-07 and Check Point. Normal flight.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/2/26165_1444.gif
Figure E2. Wave counting on the daily chart. The main variant.
According to the main variant wave (B)? or (X) keeps forming. Currently upward zigzag (a)-(b)-(c) of of Y of (B) is forming. Its wave-link (b) of is supposed to be completed. This wave (b) is interesting as it is a running triangle, a signal of expected powerful price advance.
If the supposition is correct wave (c) of completion may be expected around strong resistance at 1.3650 or in the area of new highs, corresponding to the traditional Fibo projections for a zigzag.
Endings of supposed wave X of (B) and wave of Y are the critical levels of the main variant.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/2/26165_1445.gif
Figure E3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Alternate variant.
According to one of the alternate scenarios impulse (a) keeps forming. In this case 1.35 is an appropriate level for its completion. Possible ending of wave v of (a) is projected in this area. If it happens on April 6, 2007 above another pulse point the rest of April the price will be forming correction (b).
Wave i of (a) ending is a critical level.
Moreover, the ending of the upward wave, formed at the beginning of April, may be the ending of the whole correction (B).
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
[*]FOREX forecast, 2007[*]Monthly (April, 2007)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, April, 2007)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, April, 2007)[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, April, 2007)[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007[*]Check Point. Normal Flight.[*]Wave analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market [*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comMarch 31, 2007Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
Introduction
Price movement, supposed in Monthly-0307 was forming in accordance with the forecast. For the results refer to Figure G1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/2/26166_1463.gif
Figure G1. Final daily chart of the forecast for March, 2007.
For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of GBP movement a month ago is given in the chart.
Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of GBP in large time frames refer to Annual-07 and Check Point. Normal flight..
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/2/26166_1464.gif
Figure G2. Wave counting on the daily chart. The main variant.
According to the main variant wave (B)? or (X) keeps forming. Currently upward zigzag (a)-(b)-(c) of of Y of (B) is forming. Its wave-link (b) of is supposed to be completed. If the supposition is correct, wave (c) of ending may be expected around a strong resistance level at 2.00 or around the highs corresponding to the traditional fibo projections for a zigzag.
Endings of supposed wave X of (B) and wave of Y are the critical levels of the main variant.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/2/26166_1465.gif
Figure G3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Alternate variant.
According to one of the alternate scenarios impulse (a) keeps forming. In this case 1.99 is an appropriate level for its completion. Possible ending of wave v of (a) is projected in this area. If it happens on April 6, 2007 above another pulse point the rest of April the price will be forming correction (b).
Wave i of (a) ending is a critical level.
Moreover, the ending of the upward wave, formed at the beginning of April, may be the ending of the whole correction (B).
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
[*]FOREX forecast, 2007[*]Monthly (April, 2007)[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, April, 2007)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, April, 2007)[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, April, 2007)[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007[*]Check Point. Normal Flight.[*]Wave analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market [*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comMarch 31, 2007Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 15:58 编辑 ]
Introduction
Price movement, supposed in Monthly-0307 was forming in accordance with the forecast. For the results refer to Figure Y1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/2/26167_1466.gif
Figure Y1. Final daily chart of the forecast for March, 2007.
For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of JPY movement a month ago is given in the chart.
Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of JPY in large time frames refer to Annual-07 and Check Point. Normal flight.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/2/26167_1467.gif
Figure Y2. Wave counting on the daily chart. The main variant.
According to the main variant corrective wave (B)? keeps forming. Its wave B of (B) has assumed the shape of the ordinary zigzag, supposed wave C of (B) is assuming the shape of the downward impulse. Price fall below 114.42 may confirm the accepted scenario. .
114.00 and 112.00 are strong resistance levels. They are quite suitable for the area of possible ending of impulse C of (B). Ending of supposed wave of C is the critical level of the main scenario.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/2/26167_1468.gif
Figure Y3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Alternate variant.
According to the alternate scenario this year downtrend is a larger impulse than in the main variant, according to which only its third wave of C is forming. If the supposition is correct ending of wave may be expected on April 6, 2007 above another key pulse point, the rest of April the price will form correction .
Ending of supposed wave of B, 114.42, is the confirmatory level. Endings of wave (i) of and wave of C are the critical levels.
Moreover, ending of the downward wave formed at the beginning of April may be the ending of the whole correction (B).
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
[*]FOREX forecast, 2007[*]Monthly (April, 2007)[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, April, 2007)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, April, 2007)[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, April, 2007)[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007[*]Check Point. Normal Flight.[*]Wave analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market [*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comMarch 31, 2007Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
Introduction
Price movement, supposed in Monthly-0307 was forming in accordance with the forecast. For the results refer to Figure C1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/2/26168_1447.gif
Figure C1. Final daily chart of the forecast for March, 2007.
For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of CHF movement a month ago is given in the chart.
Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of EUR in large time frames refer to Annual-07 and Check Point. Normal flight.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/2/26168_1448.gif
Figure C2. Wave counting on the daily chart. The main variant.
According to the main variant wave (B)? or (X) keeps forming. Currently downward zigzag (a)-(b)-(c) of of Y of (B) is forming. Its wave-link (b) of is supposed to be completed. This wave (b) is interesting as it is a running triangle, a signal of expected powerful price fall.
If the supposition is correct wave (c) of completion may be expected around strong resistance (1.18,) 1.15 or 1.13, corresponding to the traditional Fibo projections for a zigzag.
Endings of supposed wave b of (b) of of Y and wave of Y are the confirmatory levels. Price fall below 1.1879 may confirm the accepted scenario vividly.
Endings of supposed wave X of (B) and wave of Y are the critical levels of the main variant.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/2/26168_1449.gif
Figure C3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Alternate variant.
According to one of the alternate scenarios impulse (a) keeps forming. In this case 1.19 is an appropriate level for its completion. Possible ending of wave v of (a) is projected in this area. If it happens on April 6, 2007 above another pulse point the rest of April the price will be forming correction (b).
Ending of supposed wave of Y is the confirmatory level. Wave i of (a) ending is a critical level.
Moreover, the ending of the downward wave, formed at the beginning of April, may be the ending of the whole correction (B).
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
[*]FOREX forecast, 2007[*]Monthly (April, 2007)[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, April, 2007)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, April, 2007)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, April, 2007)[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007[*]Check Point. Normal Flight.[*]Wave analysis[*]http://old.alpari.org/en/analytics/ew/daily/061122.html”]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market [*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comMarch 31, 2007Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 16:00 编辑 ]
Introduction
In Annual-07 it was supposed that
«…confirmation of completion of more than annual prices movement against the dollar (that is the fact of completion of wave (B) or (X) of for the main European currencies) is the main event expected in 2007 from the point of view prices movement forecasting»
From my point of view this trend reverse is really the most expected event. This expectation is based on the forecast released almost a year and a half ago in Annual-06:
«…Further price movement will depend on different data, if, once the trend is reversed, completed three-wave pattern forms by November, 2006, its high/low may be the second high/low of many-month extended correction. … Otherwise the US Dollar decline may last at least till May, 2007.»
Several days left before the beginning of May, USD weakening, begun at the end of 2005, is still valid. It's quite a weighty argument in favor of EWA and my approach in Forex analysis.
An attempt to specify the date of the global trend reverse on the basis of the wave picture analysis and key pulse points method provides us with an interesting result. On the one hand the reverse is projected at the very end of May — beginning of June (the check point of June 2, 2007, released long time ago). On the other hand the minimum acceptable time board for the area of this reverse begins in the first decade of May, and the European currencies have almost formed a completed corrective wave structure, consisting of seven waves.
Thus, it may be expected that the trend reverse in favor of the dollar will begin either at the beginning of May or immediately after the correction forms its eleventh wave by the beginning of June. I prefer the last variant, as it was on the basis of the forecasts of the last year and a half. At the same time I consider these variants to be equally probable and the situation to be dynamically unsteady, that is why I do not treat these variants as the main and the alternate ones, I just call them variant 1 and variant 2, which are given in the corresponding parts.
If the price will give a surprise and form some intermediate variant, the global scenarios of every pair under consideration may be revised principally.
Note
This report reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release. This report is subject to change, it will be reflected in daily analyses or in additional articles in Wave analysis.
It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show probable price movements.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2007[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, May, 2007)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, April, 2007)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, April, 2007)[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, April, 2007)[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007[*]Check Point. Normal Flight.[*]Possible Perspectives of the European Currencies for 2007[*]Wave analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comApril 29, 2007Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
Introduction
Price movement, supposed in Monthly-0407, was forming in accordance with the forecast. The results are given on Figure E1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/3/26553_2425.gif
Figure E1. Final daily chart for April, 2007.
For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of EUR movement a month ago is given in the chart.
Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of EUR in large time frames refer to Annual-07 and Possible perspectives of the European currencies for 2007.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/3/26553_2426.gif
Figure E2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1.
According to variant 1 wave (B)? forming is almost completed.
Ending of supposed wave (b) of of Y is the confirmatory level. Ending of supposed wave (B)? will be the critical level, once its completion is confirmed.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/3/26553_2427.gif
Figure E3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 2.
According to variant 2 ending of wave (c) of may be expected above the historical high of the euro, there are no support/resistance levels yet. But by the analogy with CHF USD weakening by 300-500 pips may be expected.
Wave vi of (c) ending is the critical level.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Ссылки по теме
[*]FOREX forecast, 2007[*]Monthly -0507[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, May, 2007)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, May, 2007)[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, May, 2007)[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007[*]Check Point. Normal Flight.[*]Possible Perspectives of the European Currencies for 2007[*]Wave analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comApril 29, 2007 (11:00, Moscow time)Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
Introduction
Price movement, supposed in Monthly-0407, was forming in accordance with the forecast. The results are given on Figure G1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/3/26554_2428.gif
Figure G1. Final daily chart for April, 2007.
For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of GBP movement a month ago is given in the chart.
Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of EUR in large time frames refer to Annual-07 and Possible perspectives of the European currencies for 2007.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/3/26554_2429.gif
Figure G2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1.
According to variant 1 wave (B)? forming is almost completed.
Ending of supposed wave (b) of of Y is the confirmatory level. Ending of supposed wave (B)? is the critical level.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/3/26554_2430.gif
Figure G3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 2.
According to variant 2 wave (c) of ending may be expected above the support/resistance levels of 1991-92. But by the analogy with CHF USD weakening by 300-500 pips may be expected.
Wave vi of (c) ending is the critical level.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference:
[*]FOREX forecast, 2007[*]Monthly -0507[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, May, 2007) [*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, May, 2007)[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, May, 2007)[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007[*]Check Point. Normal Flight.[*]Possible Perspectives of the European Currencies for 2007[*]Wave analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comApril 29, 2007 (11:00, Moscow time)Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 16:02 编辑 ]
Introduction
Price fall, supposed in Monthly-0407, was not realized, though USD was weakening in accordance with the forecast. JPY fall might have been more significant. The results are given on Figure Y1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/3/26555_2431.gif
Figure Y1. Final daily chart for April, 2007.
For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of JPY movement a month ago is given in the chart.
Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of EUR in large time frames refer to Annual-07 and Check point, normal flight..
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/3/26555_2432.gif
Figure Y2. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 1.
JPY may be forming the double three or extended horizontal correction (such variant was described in Annual-07), rather than the extended flat.
According to the first variant corrective wave C of (B) keeps forming. It is assuming the shape of the zigzag, which is characteristic of triangles. Price fall below the level of wave of C of (B) ending will confirm this scenario. Ending of supposed wave B of (B) is the critical level. Details are given on the next chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/3/26555_2433.gif
Figure Y3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1.
114.00 and 112.00 are strong resistance levels. They quite suit for the area of possible ending of impulse of C of (B), forming a proportional zigzag C of (B).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/3/26555_2434.gif
Figure Y4. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 2.
According to the alternate scenario from the mid of 2006 the final wave (C) of has been forming, assuming the shape of the diagonal triangle.
Ending of supposed wave 1 of (C) is the confirmatory level. Ending of wave 2 of (C) is the critical level.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference:
[*]FOREX forecast, 2007[*]Monthly -0507[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, May, 2007)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, May, 2007)[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, May, 2007)[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007[*]Check Point. Normal Flight.[*]Possible Perspectives of the European Currencies for 2007[*]Wave analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comApril 29, 2007 (11:00, Moscow time)Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
Introduction
Price movement, supposed in Monthly-0407, was forming in accordance with the forecast. The results are given on Figure C1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/3/26556_2435.gif
Figure C1. Final daily chart for April 2007.
For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of CHF movement a month ago is given in the chart.
Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of EUR in large time frames refer to Annual-07 and Possible perspectives of the European currencies for 2007. .
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/3/26556_2436.gif
Figure C2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1.
According to variant 1 wave (B)? forming is almost completed.
Ending of supposed wave (b) of of Y is the confirmatory level. Ending of supposed wave (B)?, once its ending is confirmed, is the critical level.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/3/26556_2437.gif
Figure C3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 2.
According to variant 2 wave (c) of ending may be expected in the area of strong resistance levels at 1.18 (1.15 and 1.13).
Wave vi of (c) ending is the critical level.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference:
[*]FOREX forecast, 2007[*]Monthly -0507[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, May, 2007) [*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, May, 2007)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, May, 2007)[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007[*]Check Point. Normal Flight.[*]Possible Perspectives of the European Currencies for 2007[*]Wave analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comApril 29, 2007 (11:00, Moscow time)Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 16:03 编辑 ]
Introduction
In Annual-07 it was supposed that
«…confirmation of completion of more than annual prices movement against the dollar (that is the fact of completion of wave (B) or (X) of for the main European currencies) is the main event expected in 2007 from the point of view prices movement forecasting»
Supposedly for the European currencies the trend reversed in favor of the dollar at the end of April 2007. Though it has not been confirmed yet. That is why the scenarios under consideration are vulnerable.
Note
This report reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release. This report is subject to change, it will be reflected in daily analyses or in additional articles in Wave analysis.
It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show probable price movements.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2007[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, June, 2007)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, June, 2007)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, June, 2007)[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, June, 2007)[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007[*]Check Point. Normal Flight.[*]Possible Perspectives of the European Currencies for 2007[*]Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives [*]Wave analysis[*]Elliott's Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJune 2, 2007 (14:00 Moscow time)When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari Ltd. is obligatory.
Introduction
Price movement, supposed in Monthly-0507 was forming in accordance with the forecast. For the results refer to Figure E1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/4/26980_3141.gif
Figure E1. Final daily chart of the forecast for May 2007.
For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of EUR movement a month ago is given in the chart.
Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of CHF in large time frames refer to Annual-07 and Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/4/26980_3142.gif
Figure E2. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Supposedly the trend reversed in favor of the dollar at the end of April 2007. Downward movement which has assumed the shape of the wedge (a) is a weighty argument in favor of this supposition. It is quite logic to expect at least one more downward impulse (or diagonal triangle) (c) after correction (b) completes.
If the supposition is correct till the end of the next week the price will be finishing correction (b), which may assume the shape of the flat, then the price will keep falling.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/4/26980_3143.gif
Figure E3. Wave counting on daily chart.
Endings of waves (a) of of (C), (b) of of Y of (B) and of Y of (B) are the confirmatory levels. Ending of wave (B)? is the critical levels.
The type of the pattern of the global corrective wave and forecast of the point of its completion will depend on the shape the price chooses for the downward wave (C)? of . Now several equally probable variants (see Annual-07) are under consideration.
If the price rises above the critical level I will have to pass to one of the alternate scenarios, described earlier in Section «Wave Analysis».
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
[*]FOREX forecast, 2007[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, June, 2007[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, June, 2007)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, June, 2007)[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, June, 2007)[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007[*]Check Point. Normal Flight.[*]Possible Perspectives of the European Currencies for 2007[*]Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives [*]Wave analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJune 2, 2007 (14:00 Moscow time)When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari Ltd. is obligatory.
Introduction
Price movement, supposed in Monthly-0507 was forming in accordance with the forecast. For the results refer to Figure G1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/4/26981_3144.gif
Figure G1. Final daily chart of the forecast for May 2007.
For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of GBP movement a month ago is given in the chart.
Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of GBP in large time frames refer to Annual-07 and Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/4/26981_3145.gif
Figure G2. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Supposedly the trend reversed in favor of the dollar at the second half of April 2007. Downward movement which has assumed the shape of the wedge (a) is a weighty argument in favor of this supposition. It is quite logic to expect at least one more downward impulse (or diagonal triangle) (c) after correction (b) completes.
If the supposition is correct till the end of the next week the price will be finishing correction (b), which may assume the shape of the zigzag, then the price will keep falling.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/4/26981_3146.gif
Figure G3. Wave counting on daily chart.
Endings of waves (a) of of (C), (b) of of Y of (B) and of Y of (B) are the confirmatory levels. Ending of wave (B)? is the critical levels.
The type of the pattern of the global corrective wave and forecast of the point of its completion will depend on the shape the price chooses for the downward wave (C)? of . Now several equally probable variants (see Annual-07) are under consideration.
If the price rises above the critical level I will have to pass to one of the alternate scenarios, described earlier in Section «Wave Analysis».
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2007[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, June, 2007[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, June, 2007)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, June, 2007)[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, June, 2007)[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007[*]Check Point. Normal Flight.[*]Possible Perspectives of the European Currencies for 2007[*]Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives [*]Wave analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJune 2, 2007 (14:00 Moscow time)When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari Ltd. is obligatory
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 16:05 编辑 ]
Introduction
In May the price preferred the scenario when the dollar strengthens (this scenario was described in Monthly-0507), it is based on the alternate scenario, described in Annual-07. The results are given in Figure Y1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/4/26982_3147.gif
Figure Y1. Final weekly chart of the forecast for 2007.
For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of JPY movement five months ago is given in the chart.
Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of JPY in large time frames refer to Annual-07 and Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/4/26982_3148.gif
Figure Y2. Wave counting on daily chart.
The dollar was strengthening in accordance with the alternate scenario. Supposedly upward wave 3 of the diagonal triangle (C) of is assuming the shape of the narrow double/triple zigzag. If the supposition is correct upward movement will continue in the narrow trend channel. Otherwise I will have to pass to one of the alternate scenarios.
The ending of wave 1 of (C) is the confirmatory level. The ending of wave 2 of (C) is still the critical level.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2007[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, June, 2007[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, June, 2007)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, June, 2007)[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, June, 2007)[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007[*]Check Point. Normal Flight.[*]Possible Perspectives of the European Currencies for 2007[*]Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives [*]Wave analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJune 2, 2007 (14:00 Moscow time)When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari Ltd. is obligatory.
Introduction
Price movement, supposed in Monthly-0507 was forming in accordance with the forecast. For the results refer to Figure C1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/4/26983_3149.gif
Figure C1. Final daily chart of the forecast for May 2007.
For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of CHF movement a month ago is given in the chart.
Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of CHF in large time frames refer to Annual-07 and Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/4/26983_3150.gif
Figure C2. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Supposedly the trend reversed in favor of the dollar at the end of April 2007. Upward movement which has assumed the shape of the impulse (a) is a weighty argument in favor of this supposition. It is quite logic to expect at least one more upward impulse (or diagonal triangle) (c) after completion of correction (b).
If the supposition is correct till the end of the next week the price will be finishing correction (b), which may assume the shape of the flat, then the price will keep rising.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/4/26983_3151.gif
Figure C3. Wave counting on daily chart.
Endings of waves (a) of of (C) and of Y of (B) are the confirmatory levels. Ending of wave (B)? is the critical levels.
The type of the pattern of the global corrective wave and forecast of the point of its completion will depend on the shape the price chooses for the upward wave (C) of . Now several equally probable variants (see Annual-07) are under consideration.
If the price falls below the critical level I will have to pass to one of the alternate scenarios, described earlier in Section “Wave Analysis”.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
[*]FOREX forecast, 2007[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, June, 2007[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, June, 2007)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, June, 2007)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, June, 2007)[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007[*]Check Point. Normal Flight.[*]Possible Perspectives of the European Currencies for 2007[*]Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives [*]Wave analysis[*]Elliott's Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJune 2, 2007 (14:00 Moscow time)When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari Ltd. is obligatory.
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 16:06 编辑 ]
Introduction
Price movement, supposed in Monthly-0607 formed in accordance with the forecast in the first half of the month. Though the fact that the dollar kept falling made me adjust possible scenarios for the 2nd half of 2007 (see Annual-07(2)). The result is given in Figure C1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/4/27340_3755.gif
Figure C1. Final daily chart of June forecast, 2007.
For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of CHF movement a month ago is given in the chart.
Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-07(2).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/4/27340_3756.gif
Figure C2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3.
According to variant 3 under consideration downward wave (B) forming is not completed yet, currently wave-link is forming. It is assuming the shape of the horizontal triangle (or triple three).
Supposedly, by the moment this article is released the last downward movement has formed quite a harmonious impulse a of (d) of . If the supposition is confirmed, wave (d) may assume the shape of the zigzag. If proportions of the main waves of the triangle are preserved, wave (d) of ending may be expected around 1.21.
Wave (c) of ending (for the horizontal triangle also (b) of ending) is the critical level before wave (d) of is completed.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
[*]FOREX Forecast for 2007[*]FOREX Forecast for the 2nd Half of 2007[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, July, 2007[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, July, 2007)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, July, 2007)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, July, 2007)[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007[*]Check point. Normal flight.[*]Possible perspectives of the European currencies for 2007[*]Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives[*]Alternate but Real Weakening of the Dollar till the End of the Summer (or the End of 2007)[*]Wave analysis[*]Elliott's Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJuly 1, 2007When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari Ltd. is obligatory
Introduction
Price movement, supposed in Monthly-0607 formed in accordance with the forecast in the first half of the month. Though the fact that the dollar kept falling made me adjust possible scenarios for the 2nd half of 2007 (see Annual-07(2)). The result is given in Figure C1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/4/27341_3757.gif
Figure Y1. Final daily chart of June forecast, 2007.
For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of JPY movement a month ago is given in the chart.
Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-07(2).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/4/27341_3758.gif
Figure Y2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 2.
USD strengthened (or rather JPY weakened) in accordance with the main variant. Though supposed further fall of the dollar corresponds to variant 2, described in Annual-07(2).
According to this variant wave B of a large flat is completed (or almost completed). If the supposition is correct in the nearest future downward wave C will keep forming. The ending of supposed wave B is the critical level in this case, ending of supposed wave of v of (c) is the nearest confirmation.
At the same time uptrend may keep forming (the alternate variant is marked in grey) as wave B completion is not confirmed yet.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
[*]FOREX Forecast for 2007[*]FOREX Forecast for the 2nd Half of 2007[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, July, 2007[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, July, 2007)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, July, 2007)[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, July, 2007)[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007[*]Check point. Normal flight.[*]Possible perspectives of the European currencies for 2007[*]Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives[*]Alternate but Real Weakening of the Dollar till the End of the Summer (or the End of 2007)[*]Wave analysis[*]Elliott's Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJuly 1, 2007When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari Ltd. is obligatory.
Introduction
Price movement, supposed in Monthly-0607 formed in accordance with the forecast in the first half of the month. Though the fact that the dollar kept falling made me adjust possible scenarios for the 2nd half of 2007 (see Annual-07(2)). The result is given in Figure C1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/4/27342_3759.gif
Figure G1. Final daily chart of June forecast, 2007.
For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of EUR movement a month ago is given in the chart.
Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-07(2).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/4/27342_3760.gif
Figure G2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3.
According to variant 3 under consideration upward wave (B) forming is not completed yet, currently the second wave-link XX of (B) is forming. It is not clear yet which shape it will assume. Though it will hardly be a simple zigzag as the first supposed wave or of XX is a zigzag. It is interesting that at this stage of forming by the inner structure and the outer shape it is like the neighbouring correction of Y.
Supposedly, by the moment this article is released the last upward movement has formed quite a harmonious impulse (a) of . If the supposition is confirmed, wave may assume the shape of the zigzag.
Judging by the relative position of the current ending of wave of XX the wave XX won't be a double or triple zigzag. It may assume the shape of either double/triple three or flat, or an extended horizontal correction.
As the price has almost reached the level of wave Y ending there is no sense to specify the critical level for wave of XX.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
[*]FOREX Forecast for 2007[*]FOREX Forecast for the 2nd Half of 2007[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, July, 2007[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, July, 2007)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, July, 2007)[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, July, 2007)[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007[*]Check point. Normal flight.[*]Possible perspectives of the European currencies for 2007[*]Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives[*]Alternate but Real Weakening of the Dollar till the End of the Summer (or the End of 2007)[*]Wave analysis[*]Elliott's Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJuly 1, 2007When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari Ltd. is obligatory.
Introduction
Price movement, supposed in Monthly-0607 formed in accordance with the forecast in the first half of the month. Though the fact that the dollar kept falling made me adjust possible scenarios for the 2nd half of 2007 (see Annual-07(2)). The result is given in Figure E1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/4/27343_3761.gif
Figure E1. Final daily chart of June forecast, 2007.
For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of EUR movement a month ago is given in the chart.
Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-07(2).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/4/27343_3762.gif
Figure E2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3.
According to variant 3 under consideration upward wave (B) forming is not completed yet, currently the second wave-link XX of (B) is forming. It is not clear yet which shape it will assume. Though it will hardly be a simple zigzag as the first supposed wave or of XX is a zigzag.
Supposedly, by the moment this article is released the last upward movement has formed quite a harmonious impulse (a) of . If the supposition is confirmed, wave may assume the shape of the zigzag.
Depending on the relative position of wave of XX ending we can judge about the shape of the forming correction XX (either horizontal correction or double/triple zigzag, is given in grey).
Wave of XX ending is the critical level before wave of XX forming completes.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
[*]FOREX Forecast for 2007[*]FOREX Forecast for the 2nd Half of 2007[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, July, 2007[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, July, 2007)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, July, 2007)[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, July, 2007)[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007[*]Check point. Normal flight.[*]Possible perspectives of the European currencies for 2007[*]Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives[*]Alternate but Real Weakening of the Dollar till the End of the Summer (or the End of 2007)[*]Wave analysis[*]Elliott's Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJuly 1, 2007When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari Ltd. is obligatory.
Introduction
2 check points were published to specify possible limit date of the long-term trend reverse in Annual-07. A month ago the second check point fell behind (June 2, 2007), whereas completion of USD fall has not been confirmed. Thus, long-term USD downtrend is still valid for the main currencies.
As it has been mentioned, e.g. in Monthly-0607, in periods of expected trend breakout the number of possible variants of the wave counting increases significantly and scenarios become more vulnerable.
As the current scenarios are vulnerable and wave picture on small time-frames is unsteady three possible scenarios were described in Annual-07(2) and in the forecast for July 2007 the most probable scenario from my point of view was considered.
Note
This report reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release. This report is subject to change, it will be reflected in daily analyses or in additional articles in Wave analysis.
It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show probable price movements.
Reference
[*]FOREX Forecast for 2007[*]FOREX Forecast for the 2nd Half of 2007[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, July, 2007)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, July, 2007)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, July, 2007)[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, July, 2007)[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007[*]Check point. Normal flight.[*]Possible perspectives of the European currencies for 2007[*]Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives[*]Alternate but Real Weakening of the Dollar till the End of the Summer (or the End of 2007)[*]Wave analysis[*]Elliott's Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJuly 1, 2007When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari Ltd. is obligatory.
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 16:08 编辑 ]
Introduction
Price movement, supposed in Monthly-0707, schematically remained within the forecast. Though by the mid of the month it became clear that the price prefers scenario v.3-alt, rather than v.3, as supposed earlier Annual-07(2)]. This fact influenced daily forecasts. The result is given in Figure C1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/27631_4204.gif
Figure C1. Final daily chart of July forecast, 2007.
For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of CHF movement a month ago is given in the chart.
Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-07(2).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/27631_4205.gif
Figure C2. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3-alt.
According to scenario 3-alt downward wave (B) keeps forming, currently supposed final zigzag of Y of (B) is forming. The area of the projected values, specified through zigzag of Y of (B), is given in the chart. Once forming of supposed wave (b) of of Y completes there will be new data to adjust the projected area.
Wave of Y ending is the critical level before wave completes its forming.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/27631_4206.gif
Figure C3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-alt.
Forming wave (b) of is supposed to be assuming the shape of the extended or running flat. Though wave (b) of may be completed, having assumed the shape of the double zigzag (the alternate variant is given in grey, see the next picture).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/27631_4207.gif
Figure C4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-alt.
If the supposition is correct forming of the second wave b of flat (b) of is almost completed. Wave b of (b) of length is almost equal to the limited value for extended or running flats, that is why the alternate variant, given in grey in the chart, is possible.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
[*]FOREX Forecast for 2007[*]FOREX Forecast for the 2nd Half of 2007[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, August, 2007[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, August, 2007)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, August, 2007)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, August, 2007)[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007[*]Check point. Normal flight.[*]Possible perspectives of the European currencies for 2007[*]Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives[*]Alternate but Real Weakening of the Dollar till the End of the Summer (or the End of 2007)[*]Wave analysis[*]Elliott's Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comAugust 4, 2007When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.
Introduction
Price movement, supposed in Monthly-0607, was forming in accordance with the forecast. The result is given in Figure Y1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/27632_4208.gif
Figure Y1. Final daily chart of July forecast, 2007.
For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of JPY movement a month ago is given in the chart.
Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-07(2).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/27632_4209.gif
Figure Y2. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 2.
According to variant 2 wave B of a large flat (B) of is completed. If the supposition is correct currently downward final wave C of (B) is forming, it is assuming the shape of the impulse. Concerns about USD weakening against the European currencies are an additional argument in favor of this scenario. New data to adjust the projected area will appear while forming of the downward impulse C of (B).
At the same time as long as the pair is not fixed below 115 this scenario is vulnerable. Ending of supposed wave B is its critical level.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/27632_4210.gif
Figure Y3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 2.
Supposedly the first wave of impulse C has assumed the shape of the impulse with extension in the fifth wave (v) of . If the supposition is correct we should expect forming of the so-called Elliott's double retracement with correction ending at least around 120 value.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/27632_4211.gif
Figure Y4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 2.
At the same time according to the wave structure of the begun corrective wave it may form upwards in the shape of the (double/triple) zigzag up to 121 mark.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
[*]FOREX Forecast for 2007[*]FOREX Forecast for the 2nd Half of 2007[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, August, 2007[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, August, 2007)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, August, 2007)[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, August, 2007)[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007[*]Check point. Normal flight.[*]Possible perspectives of the European currencies for 2007[*]Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives[*]Alternate but Real Weakening of the Dollar till the End of the Summer (or the End of 2007)[*]Wave analysis[*]Elliott's Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comAugust 4, 2007When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.
Introduction
Price movement, supposed in Monthly-0707, schematically remained within the forecast. Though by the mid of the month it became clear that the price prefers scenario v.2, rather than v.3, as supposed earlier Annual-07(2)]. This fact influenced daily forecasts. The result is given in Figure G1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/27633_4212.gif
Figure G1. Final daily chart of July forecast, 2007.
For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of GBP movement a month ago is given in the chart.
Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-07(2).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/27633_4213.gif
Figure G2. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 2.
According to scenario 2 upward wave (B) keeps forming, currently supposed final zigzag of Y of (B) is forming. The area of the projected values, specified through the double zigzag W of (B), is given in the chart. Once forming of supposed wave (b) of of Y completes there will be new data to adjust the projected area.
Wave of Y of (B) ending is the critical level before wave completes its forming.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/27633_4214.gif
Figure G3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 2.
Forming wave (b) of is supposed to be assuming the shape of the zigzag. Though this wave may be completed (the alternate variant is given in grey, see the next picture).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/27633_4215.gif
Figure G4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 2.
If the supposition is correct forming of the second wave b of zigzag (b) of is almost completed. Wave b of (b) of length is almost equal to the optimum value for zigzags, though the alternate variant, given in grey in the chart, is also possible.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
[*]FOREX Forecast for 2007[*]FOREX Forecast for the 2nd Half of 2007[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, August, 2007[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, August, 2007)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, August, 2007)[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, August, 2007)[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007[*]Check point. Normal flight.[*]Possible perspectives of the European currencies for 2007[*]Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives[*]Alternate but Real Weakening of the Dollar till the End of the Summer (or the End of 2007)[*]Wave analysis[*]Elliott's Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comAugust 4, 2007When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.
Introduction
Price movement, supposed in Monthly-0707, schematically remained within the forecast. Though by the mid of the month it became clear that the price prefers scenario v.2, rather than v.3, as supposed earlier Annual-07(2)]. This fact influenced daily forecasts. The result is given in Figure E1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/27634_4216.gif
Figure E1. Final daily chart of July forecast, 2007.
For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of EUR movement a month ago is given in the chart.
Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-07(2).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/27634_4217.gif
Figure E2. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 2.
According to scenario 2 upward wave (B) keeps forming, currently supposed final zigzag of Y of (B) is forming. The area of the projected values, specified through the double zigzag W of (B), is given in the chart. Once forming of supposed wave (b) of of Y completes there will be new data to adjust the projected area.
Wave of Y of (B) ending is the critical level before wave completes its forming.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/27634_4218.gif
Figure E3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 2.
Forming wave (b) of is supposed to be assuming the shape of the flat. Though wave (b) of may be completed, having assumed the shape of the zigzag (the alternate variant is given in grey, see the next picture).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/5/27634_4219.gif
Figure E4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 2.
If the supposition is correct forming of the second wave b of flat (b) of is almost completed. Wave b of (b) of length is almost equal to the optimum value for flats, though the alternate variant, given in grey in the chart, is also possible.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
[*]FOREX Forecast for 2007[*]FOREX Forecast for the 2nd Half of 2007[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, August, 2007[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, August, 2007)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, August, 2007)[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, August, 2007)[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007[*]Check point. Normal flight.[*]Possible perspectives of the European currencies for 2007[*]Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives[*]Alternate but Real Weakening of the Dollar till the End of the Summer (or the End of 2007)[*]Wave analysis[*]Elliott's Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comAugust 4, 2007When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.
Introduction
In the forecast for the second half of the year 3 most probable scenarios of movement were given for the currency pairs under consideration Annual-07(2)]. The price might have made its choice and in this forecast for August 2007 most probable scenario from my point of view is described.
Note
This report reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release. This report is subject to change, it will be reflected in daily analyses or in additional articles in Wave analysis.
It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show probable price movements.
Reference
[*]FOREX Forecast for 2007[*]FOREX Forecast for the 2nd Half of 2007[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, August, 2007)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, August, 2007)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, August, 2007)[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, August, 2007)[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007[*]Check point. Normal flight.[*]Possible perspectives of the European currencies for 2007[*]Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives[*]Alternate but Real Weakening of the Dollar till the End of the Summer (or the End of 2007)[*]Wave analysis[*]Elliott's Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comAugust 4, 2007When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 16:11 编辑 ]