Current wave analysis.
Global uptrend is expected to be completed (the wave as a part of final wave of global horizontal triangle) and correction [Х] wave-link is supposed to be forming now. It may assume the shape of a downward triple zigzag.
Currently GBP does not manage to test strong resistance at 1.74-1.73 (Figures G2 and G3 below). This level is expected to be tested in November-December and new targets will be placed. For more information refer to figures G2 and G3 below.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0510/051029191018.gif
Figure G2. Wave analysis on the daily chart. The main scenario.
According to the main variant, shown in Figure G2, correction (the wave) is expected to be completed. In this case in November downward impulse movement may last till projected A or W zigzag is completed. The and (Х) waves highs are critical levels.
At the same time projected (с) of diagonal triangle, as final wave pattern, may be a triple zigzag, so further correction development is possible (alternative variant is shown in Figure G3, below).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0510/051029191112.gif
Figure G3 Wave analysis on the daily chart. Alternative variant.
As an alternative to the main variant the wave may assume a shape of a horizontal triangle or other extended correction. The (Х) wave high is the critical level.
For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.
Reference
*
[*]USDCHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, November, 2005)[*]EURUSD (Monthly Wave Analysis, November, 2005)[*]USDJPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, November, 2005)Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comOctober, 29, 2005The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-29 07:41 编辑 ]
Current wave analysis.
Global downtrend is expected to be completed (the wave of horizontal triangle) and final wave of the triangle is supposed to be forming now. It may assume the shape of a triple zigzag.
Currently price is rising after a pause on the strong resistance at 116.00. This level is expected to be tested in November-December and new targets will be placed. For more information refer to figures Y2 and Y3 below.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0510/051029191258.gif
Figure Y2. Wave analysis on the daily chart. The main scenario.
According to the main variant, shown in Figure Y2, the [а] wave may be uncompleted yet. In this case in November upward impulse movement may be expected till projected wave is completed. Correction (the wave) may be also formed.
At the same time the wave may be completed (alternative variant in Figure Y3, below).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0510/051029191346.gif
Figure Y3. Wave analysis on the daily chart. Alternative variant.
As an alternative to the main scenario the correction wave is forming.
For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.
Reference
[*]…“Imaginary Skewer”... [*]USDCHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, November, 2005)[*]EURUSD (Monthly Wave Analysis, November, 2005)[*]GBPUSD (Monthly Wave Analysis, November, 2005)Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comOctober, 29, 2005The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-29 07:40 编辑 ]
Introduction
Price is expected to prepare to test strong resistance to form the final movement in favor of the dollar. Possible scenarios are described in this forecast.
This month interest rates may be changed in some backbone countries that may have impact on currency pair movement (refer to Table 1). Country Interest Rate Current Value Previous Change Next Meeting USA Federal Funds 4.00% November, 1. 2005 (+0.25%) December, 13. 2005 USA Discount Rate 5.00% November, 1. 2005 (+0.25%) December, 13. 2005 Great Britain Repo Rate 4.50% August, 4. 2005 (-0.25%) December, 7-8. 2005 Eurozone Refinancing Tender 2.00% June, 5. 2003 (-0.50%) December, 1. 2005 Eurozone Deposit Rate 1.00% June, 5. 2003 (-0.50%) December, 1. 2005 Eurozone Marginal Lending Rate 3.00% June, 5. 2003 (-0.50%) December, 1. 2005 Japan Discount Rate 0.10% September, 18. 2001 (-0.15%) December, 15-16. 2005 Japan Overnight Call Rate Target 0.00% September, 19. 2001 (-0.25%) December, 15-16. 2005 Switzerland 3 month LIBOR Range 0.25% - 1.25% September, 16. 2004 (+0.25%) December, 15. 2005 Canada Overnight Rate Target 3.0% October, 18. 2005 (+0.25%) December, 6. 2005 Canada Bank Rate 3.25% October, 18. 2005 (+0.25%) December, 6. 2005 Australia Cash Rate 5.50% March, 1. 2005 (+0.25%) December, 6. 2005 New Zealand Official Cash Rate 7.00% October, 27. 2005 (+0.25%) December, 8. 2005
Table 1. Interest rate data (www.forexite.com).
Note
It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show the probable price movements. This report is subject to change and reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release.
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides.
Reference
[*]…“Imaginary Skewer”... [*]USDCHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, December, 2005)[*]EURUSD (Monthly Wave Analysis, December, 2005)[*]GBPUSD (Monthly Wave Analysis, December, 2005)[*]USDJPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, December, 2005)Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comNovember, 30, 2005The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
Introduction
Forecasted in Monthly-1105 price movement remains valid, having formed the upward impulse . The result is shown in Figure C1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0511/051130174752.gif
Figure С1. Final daily chart of the WA, November, 2005.
Current wave analysis
Wave of the several-months zigzag is expected to be completed and corrective wave is forming, it has already assumed the shape of an upward triple zigzag.
Currently previous resistance at 1.3000-1.3050 turned into support for CHF. Having broken its lower edge, price will confirm the main scenario (Figure C2). In case upward impulse movement continues alternative scenario will be confirmed (Figure C3). Support/Resistance levels for each scenario are shown in the chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0511/051130174857.gif
Figure C2. Wave analysis on the daily chart. The main scenario.
According to the main variant, shown in Figure C2, wave Х is supposed to be assuming the shape of zigzag (or double/triple zigzag) with completion in the mid of December at 1.27.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0511/051130174953.gif
Figure C3. Wave analysis on the daily chart. Alternative scenario.
As an alternative to the main variant wave is either completed, having assume the shape of a simple zigzag, or it will be completed by the next week, having formed double zigzag.
Note that scenarios are called “main” and “alternative” relatively.
For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.
Reference
* …“Imaginary Skewer”... [*]Monthly Wave Analysis, December, 2005[*]EURUSD (Monthly Wave Analysis, December, 2005)[*]GBPUSD (Monthly Wave Analysis, December, 2005)[*]USDJPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, December, 2005)Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comNovember, 30, 2005The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
Introduction
Forecasted in Monthly-1105 price movement remains valid, having formed the downward impulse . The result is shown in Figure Е1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0511/051130175200.gif
Figure E1. Final daily chart of the WA, November, 2005.
Current wave analysis
As there is no single synthesized chart on euro before 1998, the mirror image of CHF is used here as approximate scenario.
Wave of the several-months zigzag is expected to be completed and corrective wave is forming, it has already assumed the shape of an upward triple zigzag.
Currently previous resistance at 1.1850-1.1900 turned into support for EUR. Having broken its upper edge, price will confirm the main scenario (Figure E2). In case downward impulse movement continues alternative scenario will be confirmed (Figure E3). Support/Resistance levels for each scenario are shown in the chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0511/051130175251.gif
Figure E2. Wave analysis on the daily chart. The main scenario.
According to the main variant, shown in Figure Е2, wave Х is supposed to be assuming the shape of zigzag (or double/triple zigzag) with completion in the mid of December at 1.22.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0511/051130175335.gif
Figure E3. Wave analysis on the daily chart. Alternative scenario.
As an alternative to the main variant wave is either completed, having assume the shape of a simple zigzag, or it will be completed by the next week, having formed double zigzag.
Note that scenarios are called “main” and “alternative” relatively.
For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.
Reference
[*]…“Imaginary Skewer”... [*]Monthly Wave Analysis, December, 2005[*]USDCHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, December, 2005)[*]GBPUSD (Monthly Wave Analysis, December, 2005)[*]USDJPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, December, 2005)Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comNovember, 30, 2005The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-29 07:39 编辑 ]
Introduction
Forecasted in Monthly-1105 price movement remains valid, having formed the downward impulse . The result is shown in Figure G1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0511/051130175525.gif
Figure G1. Final daily chart of the WA, November, 2005.
Current wave analysis
Wave , as a part of the final wave of global horizontal triangle, is completed and corrective wave-link [Х] is forming, it has assumed the shape of a downward triple zigzag.
Currently previous resistance at 1.7300-1.7350 turned into support for GBP. Having broken its upper edge, price will confirm the main scenario (Figure G2). In case downward impulse movement continues alternative scenario will be confirmed (Figure G3). Support/Resistance levels for each scenario are shown in the chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0511/051130175619.gif
Figure G2. Wave analysis on the daily chart. The main scenario.
According to the main variant, shown in Figure G2, wave Х is supposed to be assuming the shape of zigzag (or double/triple zigzag) with completion in the mid of December at 1.78.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0511/051130175707.gif
Figure G3. Wave analysis on the daily chart. Alternative scenario.
As an alternative to the main variant wave is either completed, having assume the shape of expanded flat, or it will be completed by the next week, having formed double three.
Note that scenarios are called “main” and “alternative” relatively.
For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.
Reference
[*]…“Imaginary Skewer”... [*]Monthly Wave Analysis, December, 2005[*]USDCHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, December, 2005)[*]EURUSD (Monthly Wave Analysis, December, 2005)[*]USDJPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, December, 2005)Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comNovember, 30, 2005The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
Introduction
Forecasted in Monthly-1105 price movement remained valid and even exceeded the forecasted degree. The result is shown in Figure Y1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0511/051130175903.gif
Figure Y1. Final daily chart of the WA, November, 2005.
Current wave analysis
Wave of the horizontal triangle is supposed to be completed and final wave of the triangle is forming. It may assume the shape of triple zigzag.
Currently the price is moving upward within the last 3 months. According to the wave structure we may assume that impulse А is already completed, though it is not confirmed yet. Moreover, price has broken the upper edge of the channel and correction may begin (Figure Y2).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0511/051130180003.gif
Figure Y2. Wave analysis on the daily chart. The main scenario.
According to the main variant, shown in Figure Y2, wave А of final zigzag (Z) is supposed to be completed. In this case by the mid of December retracement may be awaited (wave В) to strong support at 115.
As there is a variety of alternative variants for YEN, they are not shown here. As soon as price movement becomes clearer, it will be shown in Daily Wave Analysis.
For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.
Reference
[*][*]Monthly Wave Analysis, December, 2005[*]USDCHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, December, 2005)[*]GBPUSD (Monthly Wave Analysis, December, 2005)[*]EURUSD (Monthly Wave Analysis, December, 2005)Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comNovember, 30, 2005The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-29 07:38 编辑 ]
Introduction
The date, when many-week prices movement in favor of the dollar is projected to complete, still remains the same (~ March, 2006). At the same time alternate variants become more preferable (refer to Annual Wave Analysis, 2006 and Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian).
It is expected that price is getting ready to rebound from strong resistance, confirming the main variant. Otherwise the alternate variants, described earlier, will become more preferable.
This month interest rates may be changed in some backbone countries that may have impact on currency pair movement (refer to Table 1). Country Interest Rate Current Value Previous Change Next Meeting USA Federal Funds 4.25% December, 13. 2005 (+0.25%) January, 31. 2006 USA Discount Rate 5.25% December, 13. 2005 (+0.25%) January, 31. 2006 Great Britain Repo Rate 4.50% August, 4. 2005 (-0.25%) January, 11-12. 2006 Eurozone Refinancing Tender 2.25% December, 1. 2005 (+0.25%) January, 12. 2006 Eurozone Deposit Rate 1.25% December, 1. 2005 (+0.25%) January, 12. 2006 Eurozone Marginal Lending Rate 3.25% December, 1. 2005 (+0.25%) January, 12. 2006 Japan Discount Rate 0.10% September, 18. 2001 (-0.15%) January, 19-20. 2006 Japan Overnight Call Rate Target 0.00% March, 19. 2001 (-0.25%) January, 19-20. 2006 Switzerland 3 month LIBOR Range 0.5% - 1.5% December, 15. 2005 (+0.25%) -- Canada Overnight Rate Target 3.25% December, 6. 2005 (+0.25%) January, 24. 2006 Canada Bank Rate 3.50% December, 6. 2005 (+0.25%) January, 24. 2006 Australia Cash Rate 5.50% March, 1. 2005 (+0.25%) February, 7. 2006
Table 1. Interest rate data.
Note
This report reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release. This report is subject to change, it will be reflected in daily analyses.
It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show the probable price movements.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Possible Perspectives of the Main Currency Pairs According to EWA (in Russian)[*]Possible Variants of Correction Development until March, 2006 (in Russian)[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Key Levels, Which Open New Targets (in Russian)[*]Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian)[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2006)[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2006)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2006)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking (in Russian)[*]Wave analysis (in Russian)forDmitry@yahoo.com
January 8, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
Introduction
Forecasted in Monthly-1205 price movement still remains valid. For the result refer to Figure C1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0601/060108232943.gif
Figure C1. Final daily chart of the WA, December, 2005.
For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of CHF behavior is shown here.
Current wave analysis
For wave analysis in large time frames refer to:
[*]USDCHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006)[*]Possible Perspectives of the Main Currency Pairs According to EWA (in Russian)[*]Possible Variants of Correction Development until March, 2006 (in Russian)[*]Key Levels, Which Open New Targets (in Russian)[*]Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian)The first sub-wave of corrective wave is forming (refer to Figure C2 below). Possible variants of further movement were described in details in USDCHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006) and Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0601/060108233101.gif
Figure C2. Wave counting on the weekly chart. The main variant.
Currently the virtual skewer may turn into support for CHF. In case the price rebounds upward from it, the main scenario will be confirmed. In case this level and the critical level (refer to Figure C3 below) are broken, I will have to consider one of the alternate scenarios, described in USDCHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006) to become more valid.
The main variant is also confirmed by the resistance level, reached by RSI, with price at the base line (trend line). It can be clearly seen on the weekly and daily charts (for the weekly chart refer to Figure C2 above and for the daily one – to Figure C3 below).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0601/060108233158.gif
Figure C3. Wave counting on the daily chart.
According to the alternate variant price may continue to decline and break the critical level.
For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Possible Perspectives of the Main Currency Pairs According to EWA (in Russian)[*]Possible Variants of Correction Development until March, 2006 (in Russian)[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Key Levels, Which Open New Targets (in Russian)[*]Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian)[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2006)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2006)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking (in Russian)[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJanuary 8, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
Introduction
Forecasted in Monthly-1205 price movement still remains valid. For the result refer to Figure E1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0601/060108233349.gif
Figure E1. Final daily chart of the WA, December, 2005.
For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of EUR behavior is shown here.
Current wave analysis
For wave analysis in large time frames refer to:
[*]EURUSD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006),[*]Possible Perspectives of the Main Currency Pairs According to EWA (in Russian)[*]Possible Variants of Correction Development until March, 2006 (in Russian)[*]Key Levels, Which Open New Targets (in Russian)The first sub-wave of corrective wave is forming (refer to Figure E2 below). Possible variants of further movement were described in details in EURUSD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006) and inversely in Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0601/060108233450.gif
Figure E2. Wave counting on the weekly chart. The main variant.
Currently the virtual skewer may turn into resistance for EUR. In case the price rebounds downward from it, the main scenario will be confirmed. In case this level and the critical level (refer to Figure E3 below) are broken, I will have to consider one of the alternate scenarios, described in EURUSD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006) to become more valid.
The main variant is also confirmed by resistance level, reached by RSI, with price at the base line (trend line). It can be clearly seen on the weekly and daily charts (for the weekly chart refer to Figure E2 above and for the daily one – to Figure E3 below).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0601/060108233551.gif
Figure E3. Wave counting on the daily chart.
According to the alternate variant price may continue to advance and break the critical level.
For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Possible Perspectives of the Main Currency Pairs According to EWA (in Russian)[*]Possible Variants of Correction Development until March, 2006 (in Russian)[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Key Levels, Which Open New Targets (in Russian)[*]Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian)[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2006)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2006)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking (in Russian)[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJanuary 8, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 15:09 编辑 ]
Introduction
Forecasted in Monthly-1205 price movement still remains valid. For the result refer to Figure G1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0601/060108233756.gif
Figure G1. Final daily chart of the WA, December, 2005.
For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of GBP behavior is shown here.
Current wave analysis
For wave analysis in large time frames refer to:
[*]GBPUSD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006),[*]Possible Perspectives of the Main Currency Pairs According to EWA (in Russian)[*]Key Levels, Which Open New Targets (in Russian)For more information about GBPUSD, its possible behavior, refer to Possible Variants of Correction Development until March, 2006 (in Russian) and Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian).
The first sub-wave of corrective wave is forming (refer to Figure G2 below). Possible variants of further movement were described in details in GBPUSD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006) and inversely in Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0601/060108233854.gif
Figure G2. Wave counting on the weekly chart. The main variant.
Currently resistance levels prior to the virtual skewer may become an obstacle for GBP. In case the price rebounds downward from them, the main scenario will be confirmed. In case these levels, the skewer and the critical level (refer to Figure G3 below) are broken, I will have to consider one of the alternate scenarios, described in gbpusd GBPUSD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006) to become more valid.
The main variant is also confirmed by resistance level, reached by RSI, with price at the base line (trend line). It can be clearly seen on the weekly and daily charts (for the weekly chart refer to Figure G2 above and for the daily one – to Figure G3 below).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0601/060108233942.gif
Figure G3. Wave counting on the daily chart.
According to the alternate variant price may continue to advance and break the critical level.
For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Possible Perspectives of the Main Currency Pairs According to EWA (in Russian)[*]Possible Variants of Correction Development until March, 2006 (in Russian)[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Key Levels, Which Open New Targets (in Russian)[*]Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian)[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2006)[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2006)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking (in Russian)[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJanuary 8, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd
Introduction
Forecasted in Monthly-1205 price movement still remains valid. For the result refer to Figure Y1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0601/060108234106.gif
Figure Y1. Final daily chart of the WA, December, 2005.
For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of JPY behavior is shown here.
Current wave analysis
For wave analysis in large time frames refer to:
[*]USDJPY (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006)[*]Possible Perspectives of the Main Currency Pairs According to EWA (in Russian)[*]Key Levels, Which Open New Targets (in Russian)The first sub-wave of the final wave of horizontal triangle is forming (Figure Y2 below). Possible variants of further movement were described in details in USDJPY (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0601/060108234200.gif
Figure Y2. Wave counting on the weekly chart. The main variant.
Currently resistance levels at 112-114 may turn into support levels for JPY. In case the price rebounds upward from it, the main scenario will be confirmed. In case these levels and the critical level (refer to Figure Y3 below) are broken, I will have to consider one of the alternate scenarios, described in USDJPY (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006) to become more valid.
The main variant is also confirmed by resistance level, reached by RSI, with price at the base line (trend line). It can be clearly seen on the weekly and daily charts (for the weekly chart refer to Figure Y2 above and for the daily one – to Figure Y3 below).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0601/060108234251.gif
Figure Y3. Wave counting on the daily chart.
According to the alternate variant price may continue to drop and break the critical level.
For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Possible Perspectives of the Main Currency Pairs According to EWA (in Russian)[*]Possible Variants of Correction Development until March, 2006 (in Russian)[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Key Levels, Which Open New Targets (in Russian)[*]Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian)[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2006)[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2006)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking (in Russian)[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJanuary 8, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 15:11 编辑 ]
Introduction
The date, when many-week prices movement in favor of the dollar is projected to complete, still remains the same (~ March, 2006). New data make it possible to specify the deadline for sub-wave (A) or (W) completion of the main scenario – April 6, 2006.
At the same time alternate variants become more preferable (refer to Annual Wave Analysis, 2006 and Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian) and Daily Wave Analyses).
This month interest rates may be changed in some backbone countries that may have impact on currency pairs movement (refer to Table 1). Country Interest Rate Current Value Previous Change Next Meeting USA Federal Funds 4.25% December 13, 2005 (+0.25%) January 31, 2006 USA Discount Rate 5.25% December 13, 2005 (+0.25%) January 31, 2006 Great Britain Repo Rate 4.50% August 4, 2005 (-0.25%) February 8-9, 2006 Eurozone Refinancing Tender 2.25% December 1, 2005 (+0.25%) February 2, 2006 Eurozone Deposit Rate 1.25% December 1, 2005 (+0.25%) February 2, 2006 Eurozone Marginal Lending Rate 3.25% December 1, 2005 (+0.25%) February 2, 2006 Japan Discount Rate 0.10% September 18, 2001 (-0.15%) February 8-9, 2006 Japan Overnight Call Rate Target 0.00% March 19, 2001 (-0.25%) February 8-9, 2006 Switzerland 3 month LIBOR Range 0.5% - 1.5% December 15, 2005 (+0.25%) March 16, 2006 Canada Overnight Rate Target 3.50% January 24, 2006 (+0.25%) March 7, 2006 Canada Bank Rate 3.75% January 24, 2006 (+0.25%) March 7, 2006 Australia Cash Rate 5.50% March 1, 2005 (+0.25%) February 7, 2006
Table 1. Interest rate data.
Note
This report reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release. This report is subject to change, it will be reflected in daily analyses.
It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show probable price movements.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Possible Perspectives of the Main Currency Pairs According to EWA (in Russian)[*]Possible Variants of Correction Development until March, 2006 (in Russian)[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Key Levels, Which Open New Targets (in Russian)[*]Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian)[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2006)[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2006)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2006)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Wave analysisforDmitry@yahoo.com
January, 29, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
Introduction
Trend reversed a bit later than it was forecasted in Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2006, having formed supposed wave in the shape of double zigzag, not a flat. The alternate variant is not canceled yet. For the result refer to Figure C1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0601/060129173208.gif
Figure С1. Final daily chart of the WA, January, 2006.
For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of CHF behavior is shown here.
Current wave analysis
For wave analysis in large time frames refer to:
[*]USDCHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006)[*]Possible Perspectives of the Main Currency Pairs According to EWA (in Russian)[*]Possible Variants of Correction Development until March, 2006 (in Russian)[*]Key Levels, Which Open New Targets (in Russian)[*]Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian)The first sub-wave (A) or (W) of corrective wave is forming (refer to Figure C2 below). Possible variants of further movement were described in details in USDCHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006) and Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0601/060129173301.gif
Figure С2. Wave counting on the daily chart. The main variant.
Currently the virtual skewer may turn into support for CHF. In case the price rebounds upward from it, the main scenario will be confirmed. April 6, 2006 is the deadline for wave (A) or (W) completion. In case the critical level is broken I will have to consider one of the alternate scenarios to become more valid (refer to Figure C3 below).
The main variant is also confirmed by resistance level, reached by RSI, with price at the base line (trend line). Moreover, divergence formed between price and RSI.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0601/060129173354.gif
Figure С3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Alternate variants.
According to two alternate variants, shown in Figure C3, wave (A) or (W) is supposed to be completed.
For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Possible Perspectives of the Main Currency Pairs According to EWA (in Russian)[*]Possible Variants of Correction Development until March, 2006 (in Russian)[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Key Levels, Which Open New Targets (in Russian)[*]Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2006[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2006)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2006)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJanuary 29, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
Introduction
Trend reversed a bit later than it was forecasted in Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2006 having formed supposed wave in the shape of double zigzag, not a flat. The alternate variant is not canceled yet. For the result refer to Figure E1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0601/060129173520.gif
Figure E1. Final daily chart of the WA, January, 2006.
For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of EUR behavior is shown here.
Current wave analysis
For wave analysis in large time frames refer to:
[*]EURUSD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006),[*]Possible Perspectives of the Main Currency Pairs According to EWA (in Russian)[*]Possible Variants of Correction Development until March, 2006 (in Russian)[*]Key Levels, Which Open New Targets (in Russian)First sub-wave (A) or (W) of corrective wave is forming (refer to Figure Е2 below). Possible variants of further movement were described in details in EURUSD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006) and inversely in Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0601/060129173609.gif
Figure E2. Wave counting on the daily chart. The main variant.
Currently the virtual skewer may turn into resistance for EUR. In case the price rebounds downward from it, the main scenario will be confirmed. April 6, 2006 is the deadline for wave (A) or (W) completion. In case the critical level is broken I will have to consider one of the alternate scenarios to become more valid (refer to Figure E3 below).
The main variant is also confirmed by resistance level, reached by RSI, with price at the base line (trend line). Moreover, divergence formed between price and RSI.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0601/060129173654.gif
Figure E3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Alternate variants.
According to two alternate variants, shown in Figure E3, wave (A) or (W) is supposed to be completed.
For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Possible Perspectives of the Main Currency Pairs According to EWA (in Russian)[*]Possible Variants of Correction Development until March, 2006 (in Russian)[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Key Levels, Which Open New Targets (in Russian)[*]Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2006[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2006)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2006)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJanuary 29, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 15:12 编辑 ]
Introduction
Trend reversed a bit later than forecasted in Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2006, having formed supposed wave in the shape of double zigzag, not a flat. The alternate variant is not canceled yet. For the result refer to Figure G1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0601/060129173818.gif
Figure G1. Final daily chart of the WA, January, 2006.
For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of GBP behavior is shown here.
Current wave analysis
For wave analysis in large time frames refer to:
[*]GBPUSD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006),[*]Possible Perspectives of the Main Currency Pairs According to EWA (in Russian)[*]Key Levels, Which Open New Targets (in Russian)For more information about GBPUSD, its possible behavior, refer to Possible Variants of Correction Development until March, 2006 (in Russian) and Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian).
First sub-wave (A) or (W) of corrective wave is forming (refer to Figure G2 below). Possible variants of further movement were described in details in GBPUSD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006) and inversely in Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0601/060129173914.gif
Figure G2. Wave counting on the weekly chart. The main variant.
Currently resistance levels prior to the virtual skewer may become an obstacle for GBP. In case the price rebounds downward from them, the main scenario will be confirmed. April 6, 2006 is the deadline for wave (A) or (W) completion. In case the critical level is broken I will have to consider one of the alternate scenarios to become more valid (refer to Figure G3 below).
The main variant is also confirmed by resistance level, reached by RSI, with price at the base line (trend line). Moreover, divergence formed between price and RSI.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0601/060129174104.gif
Figure G3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Alternate variants.
According to two alternate variants, shown in Figure G3, wave (A) or (W) is supposed to be completed.
For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Possible Perspectives of the Main Currency Pairs According to EWA (in Russian)[*]Possible Variants of Correction Development until March, 2006 (in Russian)[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Key Levels, Which Open New Targets (in Russian)[*]Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2006[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2006)[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2006)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJanuary 29, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
Introduction
Forecasted in Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2006 price movement remained valid. For the result refer to Figure Y1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0601/060129174250.gif
Figure Y1. Final daily chart of the WA, January, 2006.
For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of JPY behavior is shown here.
Current wave analysis
For wave analysis in large time frames refer to:
[*]USDJPY (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006)[*]Possible Perspectives of the Main Currency Pairs According to EWA (in Russian)[*]Key Levels, Which Open New Targets (in Russian)First sub-wave (A) or (W) of the final wave of horizontal triangle is forming (Figure Y2 below). Possible variants of further movement were described in details in USDJPY (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0601/060129174357.gif
Figure Y2. Wave counting on the weekly chart. The main variant.
In case final upward impulse or diagonal triangle is formed, the main scenario will be confirmed. Wave (A) or (W) completion is possible at the end of March – beginning of April, at the same time when European currencies will complete this wave. In case the critical level is broken I will have to consider one of the alternate scenarios to become more valid (refer to Figure Y3 below).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0601/060129180235.gif
Figure Y3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Alternate variants.
According to two alternate variants, shown in Figure Y3, wave (A) or (W) is supposed to be completed.
For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Possible Perspectives of the Main Currency Pairs According to EWA (in Russian)[*]Possible Variants of Correction Development until March, 2006 (in Russian)[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Key Levels, Which Open New Targets (in Russian)[*]Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2006[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2006)[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2006)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJanuary 29, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 15:14 编辑 ]
Introduction
The date, when many-week prices movement in favor of the dollar is projected to complete, still remains the same (~ the end of March, 2006). In Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2006 date limit for completion of sub-wave (A) or (W) of the main scenario was April 6, 2006. Taking into consideration the error of this method, this date is still valid.
Currently the alternate variant for the described currencies differs from the main one by the depth of the expected final movement (refer to the correspondent parts).
This month interest rates may be changed in some backbone countries that may have impact on currency pairs movement (refer to Table 1). Country Interest Rate Current Value Previous Change Next Meeting USA Federal Funds 4.50% January 31, 2006 (+0.25%) March 28, 2006 USA Discount Rate 5.50% January 31, 2006 (+0.25%) March 28, 2006 Great Britain Repo Rate 4.50% August 4, 2005 (-0.25%) February 8-9, 2006 Eurozone Refinancing Tender 2.25% February 2, 2006 (+0.25%) March 2, 2006 Eurozone Deposit Rate 1.25% February 2, 2006 (+0.25%) March 2, 2006 Eurozone Marginal Lending Rate 3.25% February 2, 2006 (+0.25%) March 2, 2006 Japan Discount Rate 0.10% September 18, 2001 (-0.15%) March 8-9, 2006 Japan Overnight Call Rate Target 0.00% March 19, 2001 (-0.25%) March 8-9, 2006 Switzerland 3 month LIBOR Range 0.5% - 1.5% December 15, 2005 (+0.25%) March 16, 2006 Canada Overnight Rate Target 3.50% January 24, 2006 (+0.25%) March 7, 2006 Canada Bank Rate 3.75% January 24, 2006 (+0.25%) March 7, 2006 Australia Cash Rate 5.50% March 1, 2005 (+0.25%) March 7, 2006
Table 1. Interest rate data.
Note
This report reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release. This report is subject to change, it will be reflected in daily analyses.
It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show probable price movements.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Possible Perspectives of the Main Currency Pairs According to EWA (in Russian)[*]Possible Variants of Correction Development until March, 2006 (in Russian)[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Key Levels, Which Open New Targets (in Russian)[*]Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian)[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, March, 2006)[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, March, 2006)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, March, 2006)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, March, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Wave analysisforDmitry@yahoo.com
February 26, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
Introduction
Two-month uptrend, forecasted in Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2006, remained valid. For the result refer to Figure C1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0602/060226160410.gif
Figure C1. Final daily chart of the WA, February-March, 2006.
For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of CHF behavior is shown here.
Current wave analysis
For wave analysis in large time frames refer to:
[*]USDCHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006)[*]Possible Perspectives of the Main Currency Pairs According to EWA (in Russian)[*]Possible Variants of Correction Development until March, 2006 (in Russian)[*]Key Levels, Which Open New Targets (in Russian)[*]Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian)The first sub-wave (A) or (W) of corrective wave is forming (refer to Figure C2 below). Possible variants of further movement were described in details in USDCHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006) and Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0602/060226160507.gif
Figure С2. Wave counting on the daily chart. The main variant.
Currently supposed wave (b) of is forming. Completion of final wave (c) of of the uptrend is expected at the end of March – beginning of April. Its price targets will be specified once wave (b) of is completed. April 6, 2006 is the date limit for wave (A) or (W) completion.
In this case the alternate variant differs only by the depth of the final upward movement (refer to Figure C3 below).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0602/060226160552.gif
Figure С3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Alternate variants.
One of possible alternate variants is shown in Figure C3. According to this variant wave (A) or (W) is completed. In this case the “Double top”, classical pattern of the technical analysis, may be formed.
For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Possible Perspectives of the Main Currency Pairs According to EWA (in Russian)[*]Possible Variants of Correction Development until March, 2006 (in Russian)[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Key Levels, Which Open New Targets (in Russian)[*]Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, March, 2006[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, March, 2006)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, March, 2006)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, March, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comFebruary 26, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
Introduction
Two-month downtrend, forecasted in Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2006, remained valid. For the result refer to Figure E1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0602/060226160731.gif
Figure E1. Final daily chart of the WA, February-March, 2006.
For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of EUR behavior is shown here.
Current wave analysis
For wave analysis in large time frames refer to:
[*]EURUSD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006),[*]Possible Perspectives of the Main Currency Pairs According to EWA (in Russian)[*]Possible Variants of Correction Development until March, 2006 (in Russian)[*]Key Levels, Which Open New Targets (in Russian)First sub-wave (A) or (W) of corrective wave is forming (refer to Figure Е2 below). Possible variants of further movement were described in details in EURUSD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006) and inversely in Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0602/060226160823.gif
Figure E2. Wave counting on the daily chart. The main variant.
Currently supposed wave (b) of is forming. Completion of final wave (c) of of the downtrend is expected at the end of March – beginning of April. Its price targets will be specified once wave (b) of is completed. April 6, 2006 is the date limit for wave (A) or (W) completion.
In this case the alternate variant differs only by the depth of the final downward movement (refer to Figure E3 below).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0602/060226160907.gif
Figure E3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Alternate variant.
One of possible alternate variants is shown in Figure E3. According to this variant wave (A) or (W) is completed. In this case the “Double bottom”, classical pattern of the technical analysis, may be formed.
For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Possible Perspectives of the Main Currency Pairs According to EWA (in Russian)[*]Possible Variants of Correction Development until March, 2006 (in Russian)[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Key Levels, Which Open New Targets (in Russian)[*]Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, March, 2006[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, March, 2006)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, March, 2006)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, March, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comFebruary 26, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 15:15 编辑 ]
Introduction
Two-month downtrend, forecasted in Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2006, remained valid. For the result refer to Figure G1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0602/060226161043.gif
Figure G1. Final daily chart of the WA, February-March, 2006.
For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of GBP behavior is shown here.
Current wave analysis
For wave analysis in large time frames refer to: [*]GBPUSD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006),[*]Possible Perspectives of the Main Currency Pairs According to EWA (in Russian)[*]Key Levels, Which Open New Targets (in Russian)For more information about GBPUSD, its possible behavior, refer to Possible Variants of Correction Development until March, 2006 (in Russian) and Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian).
First sub-wave (A) or (W) of corrective wave is forming (refer to Figure G2 below). Possible variants of further movement were described in details in GBPUSD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006) and inversely in Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0602/060226161133.gif
Figure G2. Wave counting on the weekly chart. The main variant.
Currently supposed wave (b) of is forming. Completion of final wave (c) of of the downtrend is expected at the end of March – beginning of April. Its price targets will be specified once wave (b) of is completed. April 6, 2006 is the date limit for wave (A) or (W) completion.
In this case the alternate variant differs only by the depth of the final downward movement (refer to Figure G3 below).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0602/060226161218.gif
Figure G3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Alternate variant.
One of possible alternate variants is shown in Figure G3. According to this variant wave (A) or (W) is completed. In this case the “Double bottom”, classical pattern of the technical analysis, may be formed.
For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Possible Perspectives of the Main Currency Pairs According to EWA (in Russian)[*]Possible Variants of Correction Development until March, 2006 (in Russian)[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Key Levels, Which Open New Targets (in Russian)[*]Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, March, 2006[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, March, 2006)[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, March, 2006)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, March, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comFebruary 26, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
Introduction
Uptrend, forecasted in Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2006, remained valid, though consolidation began earlier than expected. For the result refer to Figure Y1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0602/060226161400.gif
Figure Y1. Final daily chart of the WA, February, 2006.
For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of JPY behavior is shown here.
Current wave analysis
For wave analysis in large time frames refer to: [*]USDJPY (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006)[*]Possible Perspectives of the Main Currency Pairs According to EWA (in Russian)[*]Key Levels, Which Open New Targets (in Russian).First sub-wave (A) or (W) of the final wave of horizontal triangle is forming (Figure Y2 below). Possible variants of further movement were described in details in USDJPY (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0602/060226161450.gif
Figure Y2. Wave counting on the weekly chart. The main variant.
Currently supposed wave (iv) of is forming. Completion of final wave (v) of of the uptrend is expected at the end of March – beginning of April, simultaneously with the European currencies. Its price targets will be specified once wave (iv) of is completed. April 6, 2006 is possible date limit for wave (A) or (W) completion.
In this case the alternate variant differs only by the depth of the final upward movement (refer to Figure Y3 below).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0602/060226161545.gif
Figure Y3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Alternate variant.
One of possible alternate variants is shown in Figure Y3. According to this variant wave (A) or (W) is completed. In this case the “Double top”, classical pattern of the technical analysis, may be formed.
For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.
Addition of March 9, 2006
Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY (Wave Analysis)
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Possible Perspectives of the Main Currency Pairs According to EWA (in Russian)[*]Possible Variants of Correction Development until March, 2006 (in Russian)[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Key Levels, Which Open New Targets (in Russian)[*]Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, March, 2006[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, March, 2006)[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, March, 2006)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, March, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comFebruary 26, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 15:17 编辑 ]
Introduction
Many-week trend in favor of the dollar is supposed to be almost completed. Two months ago (refer to Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2006) the date limit of its completion was specified. Taking into consideration the error of this method and two weekends (April 8-9, 2006) trend reverse may be expected on April 7-10, 2006. Current wave counting does not contradict this supposition. Though in case of a strong final movement only its first sub-wave may form above this key pulse point.
Currently the alternate variant for the described currencies differs from the main one by the depth of the expected final movement (refer to the correspondent parts).
Addition of April 10, 2006
Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs
This month interest rates may be changed in some backbone countries that may have impact on currency pairs movement (refer to Table 1). Country Interest Rate Current Value Previous Change Next Meeting USA Federal Funds 4.75% March 28, 2006 (+0.25%) May 10, 2006 USA Discount Rate 5.75% March 28, 2006 (+0.25%) May 10, 2006 Great Britain Repo Rate 4.50% August 4, 2005 (-0.25%) April 5-6, 2006 Eurozone Refinancing Tender 2.50% March 2, 2006 (+0.25%) April 6, 2006 Eurozone Deposit Rate 1.50% March 2, 2006 (+0.25%) April 6, 2006 Eurozone Marginal Lending Rate 3.50% March 2, 2006 (+0.25%) April 6, 2006 Japan Discount Rate 0.10% September 18, 2001 (-0.15%) April 10-11, 2006 Japan Overnight Call Rate Target 0.00% March 19, 2001 (-0.15%) April 10-11, 2006 Switzerland 3 month LIBOR Range 0.75% - 1.75% March 16, 2006 (+0.25%) June 15, 2006 Canada Overnight Rate Target 3.75% March 7, 2006 (+0.25%) April 25, 2006 Canada Bank Rate 4.00% January 24, 2006 (+0.25%) April 25, 2006 Australia Cash Rate 5.50% March 1, 2005 (+0.25%) April 4, 2006 New Zealand Official Cash Rate 7.25% December 8, 2005 (+0.25%) April 27, 2006
Table 1. Interest rate data (www.forexite.com).
Note
This report reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release. This report is subject to change, it will be reflected in daily analyses.
It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show probable price movements.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Possible Perspectives of the Main Currency Pairs According to EWA (in Russian)[*]Possible Variants of Correction Development until March, 2006 (in Russian)[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Key Levels, Which Open New Targets (in Russian)[*]Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian)[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, April, 2006)[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, April, 2006)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, April, 2006)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, April, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Wave analysisforDmitry@yahoo.com
April 2, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd
Introduction
Trend reversed in favor of the dollar almost as forecasted in Месячном-0306. Though only of the first wave of correction completed. The result may be seen in Figure C1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0604/060402200414.gif
Figure C1. Final daily chart of the WA, March, 2006.
For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of CHF behavior is shown here.
Current wave analysis
For wave analysis in large time frames refer to:
[*]USDCHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006)[*]Possible Perspectives of the Main Currency Pairs According to EWA (in Russian)[*]Possible Variants of Correction Development until March, 2006 (in Russian)[*]Key Levels, Which Open New Targets (in Russian)[*]Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian)
First sub-wave (A) or (W) of corrective wave is forming (refer to Figure C2 below). Possible variants of further movement were described in details in USDCHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006) and Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0604/060402200507.gif
Figure С2. Wave counting on the daily chart. The main variant.
Currently supposed wave (b) of is forming. Taking into consideration the error of this method and two weekends (April 8-9, 2006) trend completion may be expected on April 7-10, 2006. Current wave counting does not contradict this supposition. Though in case of a strong final movement only its first sub-wave i of (c) may form above this key pulse point.
In this case the alternate variant differs only by the depth of the final upward movement (refer to Figure C3 below).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0604/060402200555.gif
Figure С3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Alternate variants.
One of possible alternate variants is shown in Figure C3. According to this variant wave (A) or (W) is completed. In this case the “Double top”, classical pattern of the technical analysis, may be formed.
For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.
Addition of April 10, 2006
Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Possible Perspectives of the Main Currency Pairs According to EWA (in Russian)[*]Possible Variants of Correction Development until March, 2006 (in Russian)[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Key Levels, Which Open New Targets (in Russian)[*]Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian)* Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY (Wave Analysis)
[*]FOREX forecast, April, 2006[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, April, 2006)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, March, 2006)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, April, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comApril 2, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd
Introduction
Trend reversed in favor of the dollar almost as forecasted in Monthly Wave Analysis, March, 2006. Though only of the first wave of correction completed. The result may be seen in Figure E1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0604/060402200741.gif
Figure E1. Final daily chart of the WA, March, 2006.
For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of EUR behavior is shown here.
Current wave analysis
For wave analysis in large time frames refer to:
[*]EURUSD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006),[*]Possible Perspectives of the Main Currency Pairs According to EWA (in Russian)[*]Possible Variants of Correction Development until March, 2006 (in Russian)[*]Key Levels, Which Open New Targets (in Russian).
First sub-wave (A) or (W) of corrective wave is forming (refer to Figure Е2 below). Possible variants of further movement were described in details in EURUSD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006) and inversely in Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0604/060402200832.gif
Figure E2. Wave counting on the daily chart. The main variant.
Currently supposed wave (b) of is forming. Taking into consideration the error of this method and two weekends (April 8-9, 2006) trend completion may be expected on April 7-10, 2006. Current wave counting does not contradict this supposition. Though in case of a strong final movement only its first sub-wave i of (c) may form above this key pulse point.
In this case the alternate variant differs only by the depth of the final downward movement (refer to Figure E3 below).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0604/060402200918.gif
Figure E3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Alternate variant.
One of possible alternate variants is shown in Figure E3. According to this variant wave (A) or (W) is completed. In this case “Double bottom”, classical pattern of the technical analysis, may be formed.
For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.
Addition of April 10, 2006
Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Possible Perspectives of the Main Currency Pairs According to EWA (in Russian)[*]Possible Variants of Correction Development until March, 2006 (in Russian)[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Key Levels, Which Open New Targets (in Russian)[*]Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian)* Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY (Wave Analysis)
[*]FOREX forecast, April, 2006[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, April, 2006)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, April, 2006)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, April, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comApril 2, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 15:20 编辑 ]
Introduction
Trend reversed in favor of the dollar almost as forecasted in Monthly Wave Analysis, March, 2006. Though only of the first wave of correction completed. The result may be seen in Figure G1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0604/060402201045.gif
Figure G1. Final daily chart of the WA, March, 2006.
For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of GBP behavior is shown here.
Current wave analysis
For wave analysis in large time frames refer to: [*]GBPUSD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006),[*]Possible Perspectives of the Main Currency Pairs According to EWA (in Russian)[*]Key Levels, Which Open New Targets (in Russian).For more information about possible movement of GBPUSD refer to the article Possible Variants of Correction Development until March, 2006 (in Russian).
First sub-wave (A) or (W) of corrective wave is forming (refer to Figure G2 below). Possible variants of further movement were described in details in Annual Wave Analysis, 2006 and the mirror image was given in the article Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0604/060402201137.gif
Figure G2. Wave counting on weekly chart. The main variant.
Currently supposed wave (b) of is forming in the shape of the running triangle (approximately a year ago the same triangle was formed on the skewer). Taking into consideration the error of this method and two weekends (April 8-9, 2006) trend completion may be expected on April 7-10, 2006. Current wave counting does not contradict this supposition. Though in case of a strong final movement only its first sub-wave i of (c) may form above this key pulse point.
In this case the alternate variant differs only by the depth of the final downward movement (refer to Figure G3 below).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0604/060402201220.gif
Figure G3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Alternate variant.
One of possible alternate variants is shown in Figure G3. According to this variant wave (A) or (W) is completed. In this case the “Double bottom”, classical pattern of the technical analysis, may be formed.
For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.
Addition of April 10, 2006
Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Possible Perspectives of the Main Currency Pairs According to EWA (in Russian)[*]Possible Variants of Correction Development until March, 2006 (in Russian)[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Key Levels, Which Open New Targets (in Russian)[*]Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian)[*]Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY (Wave Analysis)[*]FOREX forecast, April, 2006[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, April, 2006)[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, April, 2006)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, April, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comApril 2, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd
Introduction
Trend reversed in favor of the dollar almost as forecasted in Monthly Wave Analysis, March, 2006. Though only of the first wave of correction completed. The result may be seen in Figure Y1.
On March 9 this counting was adjusted to the changed wave picture (refer to Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY (Wave Analysis)).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0604/060402201350.gif
Figure Y1. Final daily chart of the WA, March, 2006.
For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of JPY behavior is shown here.
Current wave analysis
For wave analysis in large time frames refer to: [*]USDJPY (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006)[*]Possible Perspectives of the Main Currency Pairs According to EWA (in Russian)[*]Key Levels, Which Open New Targets (in Russian).[*]in the article Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY (Wave Analysis).First sub-wave (A) of the final wave of horizontal triangle is forming (Figure Y2 below). Possible variants of further movement were described in details in Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY (Wave Analysis).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0604/060402201448.gif
Figure Y2. Wave counting on the weekly chart. The main variant.
Currently supposed wave 4 is forming. Completion of the final wave of uptrend 5 is expected at the beginning of April simultaneously with the European currencies. Though in case of strong final movement above the key point April 7-10, 2006 only the first sub-wave of 5 may form.
In this case the alternate variant differs only by the depth of the final upward movement (refer to Figure Y3 below).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0604/060402201533.gif
Figure Y3. Wave counting on daily chart. Alternate variants.
One of possible alternate variants is shown in Figure Y3. According to this variant wave (A) or (W) is completed. In this case the “Double top”, classical pattern of the technical analysis, may be formed.
For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.
Addition of April 10, 2006
Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Possible Perspectives of the Main Currency Pairs According to EWA (in Russian)[*]Possible Variants of Correction Development until March, 2006 (in Russian)[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Key Levels, Which Open New Targets (in Russian)[*]Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian)[*]Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY (Wave Analysis)[*]FOREX forecast, April, 2006[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, April, 2006)[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, April, 2006)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, April, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comApril 2, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 15:22 编辑 ]
Introduction
Once the date limit of movement in favor of the dollar, specified three months ago, ran out ( Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2006) I passed to the alternate scenarios, according to which the first zigzag against the dollar is forming now (supposedly as a part of corrective wave B or X). The limit calculating date of this zigzag completion is ~ the mid of July, 2006.
Note
This report reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release. This report is subject to change, it will be reflected in daily analyses or in additional articles in Wave analysis.
It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show probable price movements.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY (Wave Analysis)[*]CAD possible perspectives till 2008 and further (EWA of USD/CAD)[*]Japanese Triangles (EWA of EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA)[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, May, 2006)[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, May, 2006)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, May, 2006)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, May, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comApril 30, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
Introduction
Once the date limit of movement in favor of the dollar, specified three months ago, ran out ( Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2006 (USD/CHF)) I passed to the alternate scenario (refer to article Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA)) according to which price moved further. For the result refer to Figure C1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0604/060430141653.gif
Figure C1. Final daily chart of the WA, April, 2006.
For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of CHF behavior is shown here.
Current wave analysis
For wave analysis in large time frames refer to:
[*]USDCHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006),[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA).
Currently wave (B) or (X) is supposed to be forming.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0604/060430141748.gif
Figure C2. Wave counting on the daily chart. The main variant.
According to this scenario first zigzag W of wave (B) or (X) is forming. The limit calculating data of this zigzag completion is ~ the mid of July, 2006. Once price fixes below 1.2250 level 1.18 and 1.15 levels will be the most preferable ones for zigzag W completion. They correspond approximately to zigzag legs correlation – 262% and 300%.
For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY (Wave Analysis)[*]CAD possible perspectives till 2008 and further (EWA of USD/CAD)[*]Japanese Triangles (EWA of EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, May, 2006[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, May, 2006)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, May, 2006)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, May, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comApril 30, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
Introduction
Once the date limit of movement in favor of the dollar, specified three months ago, ran out ( Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2006 (EUR/USD)) I passed to the alternate scenario (refer to article Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA)) according to which price moved further. For the result refer to Figure E1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0604/060430141940.gif
Figure E1. Final daily chart of the WA, April, 2006.
For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of EUR behavior is shown here.
Current wave analysis
For wave analysis in large time frames refer to:
[*]EURUSD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006),[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA).
Currently wave (B) or (X) is supposed to be forming.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0604/060430142039.gif
Figure E2. Wave counting on the daily chart. The main variant.
According to this scenario first zigzag W of wave (B) or (X) is forming. The limit calculating data of this zigzag completion is ~ the mid of July, 2006. Once price fixed behind 1.26 level, levels at 1.31 and 1.35 (1.36 are the most preferable levels for zigzag W completion. They correspond approximately to zigzag legs correlation – 200% and 300%.
For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY (Wave Analysis)[*]CAD possible perspectives till 2008 and further (EWA of USD/CAD)[*]Japanese Triangles (EWA of EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, May, 2006[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, May, 2006)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, May, 2006)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, May, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comApril 30, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 15:24 编辑 ]
Introduction
Once the date limit of movement in favor of the dollar, specified three months ago, ran out ( Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2006 (GBPUSD)) I passed to the alternate scenario (refer to article Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA)) according to which price moved further. For the result refer to Figure G1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0604/060430142249.gif
Figure G1. Final daily chart of the WA, April, 2006.
For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of GBP behavior is shown here.
Current wave analysis
For wave analysis in large time frames refer to:
[*]GBPUSD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006),[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA).
Currently wave (B) or (X) is supposed to be forming.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0604/060430142340.gif
Figure G2. Wave counting on the daily chart. The main variant.
According to this scenario first zigzag W of wave (B) or (X) is forming. The limit calculating data of this zigzag completion is ~ the mid of July, 2006. Once price is fixed behind the imaginary skewer, levels at 1.85, 1.92 and 1.95 are the most preferable levels for zigzag W completion. They correspond approximately to zigzag legs correlation – 162%, 262% and 300%.
Moreover the minimum target of the classical pattern “Head and Shoulders” realization, described in Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA) corresponds to 1.88 level, the maximum – to 1.95.
For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY (Wave Analysis)[*]CAD possible perspectives till 2008 and further (EWA of USD/CAD)[*]Japanese Triangles (EWA of EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, May, 2006[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, May, 2006)[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, May, 2006)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, May, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comApril 30, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
Introduction
Once the date limit of movement in favor of the dollar, specified three months ago for the European currencies, ran out ( Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2006) I passed to the alternate scenario (refer to article Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA)) according to which price moved further. For the result refer to Figure Y1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0604/060430142708.gif
Figure Y1. Final daily chart of the WA, April, 2006.
For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of JPY behavior is shown here.
Current wave analysis
For wave analysis in large time frames refer to:
[*]USDJPY (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006)[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA)
Currently wave (B) or (X) is forming.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0604/060430142755.gif
Figure Y2. Wave counting on the daily chart. The main variant.
According to this scenario first zigzag W of wave (B) or (X) is forming. The limit calculating data of this zigzag completion is ~ the mid of July, 2006. Once price is fixed below 113 levels at 108.5, 106.5 and 101.5 are the most preferable levels for zigzag W completion. They correspond approximately to the legs correlation – 127%, 162% and 200%.
For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY (Wave Analysis)[*]CAD possible perspectives till 2008 and further (EWA of USD/CAD)[*]Japanese Triangles (EWA of EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, May, 2006[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, May, 2006)[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, May, 2006)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, May, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comApril 30, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 15:25 编辑 ]
Introduction
According to the senario, accepted earlier, zigzag with the limit calculating date of completion in the mid of July, 2006 is supposed to be forming.
In article Two possible fourth waves till the mid of June (EWA) on May 14 I supposed that the market corrective stage, which may last till the second half of June may have begun (yellow square in the drafts).
Possible variants of price movement are described in the correspondent sections.
Note
This report reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release. This report is subject to change, it will be reflected in daily analyses or in additional articles in Wave analysis.
It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show probable price movements.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY (Wave Analysis)[*]CAD possible perspectives till 2008 and further (EWA of USD/CAD)[*]Japanese Triangles (EWA of EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY)[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA)[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, June, 2006)[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, June, 2006)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, June, 2006)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, June, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comMay 27, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd
Introduction
Zigzag --, forecasted in Monthly-0506 till the mid of July, has been forming in accordance with the accepted scenario. For the result refer to Figure C1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0605/060527162700.gif
Figure C1. Final daily chart of the WA, May-July, 2006.
For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of CHF behavior is shown here.
Current wave analysis
For wave analysis in large time frames refer to:
[*]USDCHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006)[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA).[*]Two possible fourth waves till the mid of June (EWA).Currently wave (B) or (X) is supposed to be forming.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0605/060527162750.gif
Figure С2. Wave counting on the daily chart. The main variant.
According to this scenario first zigzag W of wave (B) or (X) is forming. The limit calculating data of this zigzag completion is ~ the mid of July, 2006. Levels at 1.18 and 1.15 are the most preferable levels for zigzag W completion. They correspond approximately to zigzag legs correlation – 262% and 300%.
On May 14 in article Two possible fourth waves till the mid of June (EWA) I supposed wave iii of (iii) completion and beginning of the “period of the fourth waves”, that is the market corrective phase which may last till the second half of June (yellow square in Figure C2). This supposition is still valid. Possible modes of price movement are described below.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0605/060527162835.gif
Figure C3. Wave counting of 480min chart. The main variant.
First of all it should be noted that the price has fulfilled the requirement specified for the fourth waves of impulse, namely (refer to Figure C3):
[*]Corrective wave pattern, which may be considered to be finished, was formed.[*]The area of the fourth wave of lower wave level was reached.[*]38% Fibo was reached.[*]MACD crossed the zero line.[*]Duration of wave iv is longer than duration of wave ii.[*]Requirement of correction depth alternation was fulfilled.[*]Supposed ending of wave iv crossed the basis channel line.The above information signifies that wave iv may be completed. Though it is not confirmed yet. This scenario will be confirmed in case the price falls in the shape of the impulse or diagonal triangle succeeded by forming of another tricky four pattern, (iv), which may last till June ~ 23-26.
The alternate variants of price possible movement are shown in Figure C4 below.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0605/060527162929.gif
Figure C4. Wave counting of 480min chart. Alternate variants.
According to the alternate variants fourth wave (iv) of the higher level may be forming (or it may be completed).
For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY (Wave Analysis)[*]CAD possible perspectives till 2008 and further (EWA of USD/CAD)[*]Japanese Triangles (EWA of EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA)[*]Two possible fourth waves till the mid of June (EWA)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, June, 2006[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, June, 2006)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, June, 2006)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, June, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Wave analysis
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comMay 27, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
Introduction
Zigzag --, forecasted in Monthly-0506 till the mid of July, has been forming in accordance with the accepted scenario. For the result refer to Figure E1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0605/060527163226.gif
Figure E1. Final daily chart of the WA, May-July, 2006.
For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of EUR behavior is shown here.
Current wave analysis
For wave analysis in large time frames refer to:
[*]EURUSD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006),[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA).[*]Two possible fourth waves till the mid of June (EWA).Currently wave (B) or (X) is supposed to be forming.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0605/060527163315.gif
Figure E2. Wave counting on the daily chart. The main variant.
According to this scenario first zigzag W of wave (B) or (X) is forming. The limit calculating data of this zigzag completion is ~ the mid of July, 2006. Levels at 1.31 and 1.35 (1.36) are the most preferable levels for zigzag W completion. They correspond approximately to zigzag legs correlation - 262% и 300%.
On May 14 in article Two possible fourth waves till the mid of June (EWA) I supposed wave iii of (iii) completion and beginning of the “period of the fourth waves”, that is the market corrective phase which may last till the second half of June (yellow square in Figure E2). This supposition is still valid. Possible modes of price movement are described below.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0605/060527163403.gif
Figure E3. Wave counting of 480min chart. The main variant.
First of all it should be noted that the price has fulfilled the requirement specified for the fourth waves of impulse, namely (refer to Figure E3):
[*]Corrective wave pattern, which may be considered to be finished, was formed.[*]The area of the fourth wave of lower wave level was reached.[*]38% Fibo was reached.[*]MACD crossed the zero line.[*]Duration of wave iv is longer than duration of wave ii.[*]Requirement of correction depth alternation was fulfilled.[*]Supposed ending of wave iv crossed the basis channel line.The above information signifies that wave iv may be completed. Though it is not confirmed yet. This scenario will be confirmed in case the price rises in the shape of the impulse or diagonal triangle succeeded by forming of another tricky four pattern, (iv), which may last till June ~ 23-26.
The alternate variants of price possible movement are shown in Figure E4 below.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0605/060527163501.gif
Figure E4. Wave counting of 480min chart. Alternate variants.
According to the alternate variants fourth wave (iv) of the higher level may be forming (or it may be completed).
For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY (Wave Analysis)[*]CAD possible perspectives till 2008 and further (EWA of USD/CAD)[*]Japanese Triangles (EWA of EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA)[*]Two possible fourth waves till the mid of June (EWA)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, June, 2006[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, June, 2006)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, June, 2006)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, June, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Wave analysis
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comMay 27, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 15:27 编辑 ]
Introduction
Zigzag --, forecasted in Monthly-0506 till the mid of July, has been forming in accordance with the accepted scenario. For the result refer to Figure G1. Moreover the lowest target (1.88) of the classical pattern “Head and Shoulders” forming, described in article Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA), has been reached.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0605/060527163645.gif
Figure G1. Final daily chart of the WA, May-July, 2006.
For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of GBP behavior is shown here.
Current wave analysis
For wave analysis in large time frames refer to:
[*]GBPUSD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006),[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA).[*]Two possible fourth waves till the mid of June (EWA).Currently wave (B) or (X) is supposed to be forming.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0605/060527163733.gif
Figure G2. Wave counting on the daily chart. The main variant.
According to this scenario first zigzag W of wave (B) or (X) is forming. The limit calculating data of this zigzag completion is ~ the mid of July, 2006. Levels at 1.92 and 1.95 are the most preferable levels for zigzag W completion. They correspond approximately to zigzag legs correlation – 262% and 300%.
On May 14 in article Two possible fourth waves till the mid of June (EWA) I supposed wave iii of (iii) completion and beginning of the “period of the fourth waves”, that is the market corrective phase which may last till the second half of June (yellow square in Figure G2). This supposition is still valid. Possible modes of price movement are described below.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0605/060527163826.gif
Figure G3. Wave counting of 480min chart. The main variant.
First of all it should be noted that the price has fulfilled the requirement specified for the fourth waves of impulse, namely (refer to Figure G3):
[*]Corrective wave pattern, which may be considered to be finished, was formed.[*]The area of the fourth wave of lower wave level was reached.[*]38% Fibo was almost reached.[*]MACD crossed the zero line.[*]Duration of wave iv is longer than duration of wave ii.[*]Requirement of correction depth alternation was fulfilled.[*]Supposed ending of wave iv crossed the basis channel line.The above information signifies that wave iv may be completed. Though it is not confirmed yet. This scenario will be confirmed in case the price rises in the shape of the impulse or diagonal triangle succeeded by forming of another tricky four pattern, (iv), which may last till June ~ 23-26.
The alternate variants of price possible movement are shown in Figure G4 below.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0605/060527163920.gif
Figure G4. Wave counting of 480min chart. Alternate variants.
According to the alternate variants fourth wave (iv) of the higher level may be forming (or it may be completed).
For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY (Wave Analysis)[*]CAD possible perspectives till 2008 and further (EWA of USD/CAD)[*]Japanese Triangles (EWA of EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA)[*]Two possible fourth waves till the mid of June (EWA)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, June, 2006[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, June, 2006)[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, June, 2006)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, June, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Wave analysis
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comMay 27, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
Introduction
Zigzag --, forecasted in Monthly-0506 till the mid of July, has been forming in accordance with the accepted scenario. For the result refer to Figure Y1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0605/060527164057.gif
Figure Y1. Final daily chart of the WA, May-July, 2006.
For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of JPY behavior is shown here.
Current wave analysis
For wave analysis in large time frames refer to:
[*]USDJPY (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006)[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA)[*]Two possible fourth waves till the mid of June (EWA).Currently wave (B) or (X) is supposed to be forming.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0605/060527164200.gif
Figure Y2. Wave counting on the daily chart.
According to this scenario first zigzag W of wave (B) or (X) is forming. The limit calculating data of this zigzag completion is still ~ the mid of July, 2006. Levels at 108.5, 106.5 and 101.5 are the most preferable levels for zigzag W completion. They correspond approximately to the legs correlation – 127%, 162% and 200%.
On May 14 in article Two possible fourth waves till the mid of June (EWA) I supposed wave (iii) completion and beginning of the market corrective phase, which may last till the second half of June (yellow square in Figure C2). This supposition is still valid.
For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.
Ссылки по теме
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY (Wave Analysis)[*]CAD possible perspectives till 2008 and further (EWA of USD/CAD)[*]Japanese Triangles (EWA of EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA)[*]Two possible fourth waves till the mid of June (EWA)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, June, 2006[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, May, 2006)[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, May, 2006)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, May, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comMay 27, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 15:28 编辑 ]
Introduction
Though trend against the dollar reversed above the key pulse point, on the depth of correction in May-June we may suppose another scenario of corrective wave (B) or (X) development.
Possible variants of price movement are described in the respective sections.
Note
This report reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release. This report is subject to change, it will be reflected in daily analyses or in additional articles in Wave analysis.
It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show probable price movements.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY (Wave Analysis)[*]CAD possible perspectives till 2008 and further (EWA of USD/CAD)[*]Japanese Triangles (EWA of EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA)[*]Two possible fourth waves till the mid of June (EWA)[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, July, 2006)[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, July, 2006)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, July, 2006)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, July, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJuly 01, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd
Introduction
Corrective movement forecasted in Monthly-0606 till June 23-26 was forming in accordance with the accepted scenario and completed above the key pulse point. For the result refer to Figures C1 and C2.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0607/060701192024.gif
Figure C1. Final daily chart of the WA, May-July, 2006.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0607/060701192113.gif
Figure C2. Final 480 min chart of the WA, June, 2006.
For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of CHF behavior is shown here.
Current wave analysis
For wave analysis in large time frames refer to:
[*]USDCHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006),[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA).Currently wave (B) or (X) is supposed to be forming.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0607/060701192205.gif
Figure C3. Wave counting on daily chart.
The depth of the correction formed in June gives ground for another scenario of wave (B) or (X) development than assumed earlier (Figure C3). Though previous scenario (refer to Monthly-0606) is still possible. The alternate variant is shown in grey color.
According to this scenario wave (B) or (X) may assume the shape of the triple zigzag or of more complicated zigzag correction. 1.18 and 1.15 are the most preferable levels for triple zigzag completion. Several projections of its completion, specified through the main waves correlations and fibo coefficients, are concentrated around these levels.
For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY (Wave Analysis)[*]CAD possible perspectives till 2008 and further (EWA of USD/CAD)[*]Japanese Triangles (EWA of EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA)[*]Two possible fourth waves till the mid of June (EWA)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, July, 2006[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, July, 2006)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, July, 2006)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, July, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJuly 01, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
Introduction
Corrective movement forecasted in Monthly-0606 till June 23-26 was forming in accordance with the accepted scenario and completed above the key pulse point. For the result refer to Figures E1 and E2.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0607/060701192413.gif
Figure E1. Final daily chart of the WA, May-July, 2006.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0607/060701192457.gif
Figure E2. Final 480 min chart of the WA, June, 2006.
For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of EUR behavior is shown here.
Current wave analysis
For wave analysis in large time frames refer to:
[*]EURUSD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006),[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA).Currently wave (B) or (X) is supposed to be forming.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0607/060701192545.gif
Figure E3. Wave counting on daily chart.
The depth of the correction formed in June gives ground for another scenario of wave (B) or (X) development than assumed earlier (Figure E3). Though previous scenario (refer to Monthly-0606) is still possible. The alternate variant is shown in grey color.
According to this scenario wave (B) or (X) may assume the shape of the triple zigzag or of more complicated zigzag correction. 1.31 and 1.35 (36) are the most preferable levels for triple zigzag completion. Several projections of its completion, specified through the main waves correlations and fibo coefficients, are concentrated around these levels.
For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY (Wave Analysis)[*]CAD possible perspectives till 2008 and further (EWA of USD/CAD)[*]Japanese Triangles (EWA of EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA)[*]Two possible fourth waves till the mid of June (EWA)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, July, 2006[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, July, 2006)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, July, 2006)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, July, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJuly 01, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 15:30 编辑 ]
Introduction
Corrective movement forecasted in Monthly-0606 till June 23-26 was forming in accordance with the accepted scenario and completed above the key pulse point. For the result refer to Figures G1 and G2.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0607/060701192923.gif
Figure G1. Final daily chart of the WA, May-July, 2006.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0607/060701193009.gif
Figure G2. Final 480 min chart of the WA, June, 2006.
For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of GBP behavior is shown here.
Current wave analysis
For wave analysis in large time frames refer to:
[*]GBPUSD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006),[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA).Currently wave (B) or (X) is supposed to be forming.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0607/060701193057.gif
Figure G3. Wave counting on daily chart.
The depth of the correction formed in June gives ground for another scenario of wave (B) or (X) development than assumed earlier (Figure G3). Though previous scenario (refer to Monthly-0606) is still possible. The alternate variant is shown in grey color.
According to this scenario wave (B) or (X) may assume the shape of the triple zigzag or of more complicated zigzag correction. 1.92 and 1.95 are the most preferable levels for triple zigzag completion. Several projections of its completion, specified through the main waves correlations and fibo coefficients, are concentrated around these levels.
For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY (Wave Analysis)[*]CAD possible perspectives till 2008 and further (EWA of USD/CAD)[*]Japanese Triangles (EWA of EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA)[*]Two possible fourth waves till the mid of June (EWA)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, July, 2006[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, July, 2006)[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, July, 2006)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, July, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJuly 01, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
Introduction
Corrective movement forecasted in Monthly-0606 till June 23-26 was forming in accordance with the accepted scenario and completed above the key pulse point. For the result refer to Figure Y1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0607/060701193219.gif
Figure Y1. Final daily chart of the WA, May-July, 2006.
For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of JPY behavior is shown here.
Current wave analysis
For wave analysis in large time frames refer to:
[*]USDJPY (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006)[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA).Currently wave (B) or (X) is supposed to be forming.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0607/060701193309.gif
Figure Y2. Wave counting on the daily chart.
The depth of the correction formed in June gives ground for another scenario of wave (B) or (X) development than assumed earlier (Figure Y2). The alternate variant is shown in grey color.
According to this scenario wave (B) or (X) may assume the shape of the triple zigzag or of more complicated zigzag correction. 108.5 and 106.5 are the most preferable levels for triple zigzag completion. Several projections of its completion, specified through the main waves correlations and fibo coefficients, are concentrated around these levels.
For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY (Wave Analysis)[*]CAD possible perspectives till 2008 and further (EWA of USD/CAD)[*]Japanese Triangles (EWA of EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA)[*]Two possible fourth waves till the mid of June (EWA)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, July, 2006[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, July, 2006)[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, July, 2006)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, July, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJuly 01, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 15:33 编辑 ]
Introduction
Judging by price movement against the dollar we may assume that suppositions, described in Annual-06, begin to fulfil. That is the second high (B) or (X) of the global correction will form “before November, 2006**.
Possible variants of price movement are described in the respective sections.
Note
This report reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release. This report is subject to change, it will be reflected in daily analyses or in additional articles in Wave analysis.
It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show probable price movements.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY (Wave Analysis)[*]CAD possible perspectives till 2008 and further (EWA of USD/CAD)[*]Japanese Triangles (EWA of EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA)[*]Two possible fourth waves till the mid of June (EWA)[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, August, 2006)[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, August, 2006)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, August, 2006)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, August, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comAugust 12, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd
Introduction
Price movement forecasted in Monthly-0706 preferred the alternate scenario. For the result refer to Figure C1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0608/060812123253.gif
Figure C1. Final daily chart of the WA, July, 2006.
For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of CHF behavior is shown here.
Current wave analysis
For wave analysis in large time frames refer to:
[*]USDCHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006),[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA).According to the main scenario currently wave (B) or (X) is forming, it is assuming the shape of downward triple zigzag.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0608/060812123338.gif
Figure C2. Wave counting on the daily chart. The main variant.
The last downward fife-wave, which may be wave of Z, is supposed to be completed. In case the supposition is correct wave of the final zigzag Z may form by the end of August. Ending of the second wave-link X is the critical level for this scenario.
1.18 and 1.15 are still the most preferable levels for the triple zigzag (B) or (X) completion. Several projections of its ending, calculated by the main correlations of zigzag waves and fibo coefficients, are placed there.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0608/060812123421.gif
Figure C3. Wave counting on the daily chart. The alternate variant.
According to the alternate variant downtrend should continue immediately. Two possible variants of wave counting are given in Figure C3.
For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY (Wave Analysis)[*]CAD possible perspectives till 2008 and further (EWA of USD/CAD)[*]Japanese Triangles (EWA of EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA)[*]Two possible fourth waves till the mid of June (EWA)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, August, 2006[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, August, 2006)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, August, 2006)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, August, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comAugust 12, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd
Introduction
Price movement forecasted in Monthly-0706 preferred the alternate scenario. For the result refer to Figure E1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0608/060812123605.gif
Figure E1. Final daily chart of the WA, July, 2006.
For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of EUR behavior is shown here.
Current wave analysis
For wave analysis in large time frames refer to:
[*]EURUSD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006),[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA).According to the main scenario currently wave (B) or (X) is forming, it is assuming the shape of upward triple zigzag.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0608/060812123652.gif
Figure E2. Wave counting on the daily chart. The main variant.
The last upward fife-wave, which may be wave of Z, is supposed to be completed. In case the supposition is correct wave of the final zigzag Z may form by the end of August. Ending of the second wave-link X is the critical level for this scenario.
1.31 and 1.35 (1.36) are still the most preferable levels for the triple zigzag (B) or (X) completion. Several projections of its ending, calculated by the main correlations of zigzag waves and fibo coefficients, are placed there.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0608/060812123735.gif
Figure E3. Wave counting on the daily chart. The alternate variant.
According to the alternate variant uptrend should continue immediately. Two possible variants of wave counting are given in Figure E3.
For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY (Wave Analysis)[*]CAD possible perspectives till 2008 and further (EWA of USD/CAD)[*]Japanese Triangles (EWA of EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA)[*]Two possible fourth waves till the mid of June (EWA)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, August, 2006[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, August, 2006)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, August, 2006)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, August, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comAugust 12, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 15:34 编辑 ]
Introduction
Price movement forecasted in Monthly-0706 is forming in accordance with the forecast. For the result refer to Figure G1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0608/060812123904.gif
Figure G1. Final daily chart of the WA, July, 2006.
For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of GBP behavior is shown here.
Current wave analysis
For wave analysis in large time frames refer to:
[*]GBPUSD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006),[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA).According to the main scenario wave (B) or (X) is forming currently, it is assuming the shape of upward triple zigzag.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0608/060812123950.gif
Figure G2. Wave counting on daily chart. The main variant.
The last upward five-wave, which may be wave of Z, is supposed to be completed. In case the supposition is correct wave of the final zigzag Z may form by the end of August. Ending of the second wave-link X is the critical level for this scenario.
1.92 and 1.95 are the most preferable levels for triple zigzag (B) or (X) completion. Several projections of its completion, specified through the main waves correlations and fibo coefficients, are concentrated around these levels.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0608/060812124037.gif
Figure G3. Wave counting on daily chart. The alternate variant.
According to one of the alternate variants the second wave-link X may keep forming till the mid of October (Figure G3).
For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY (Wave Analysis)[*]CAD possible perspectives till 2008 and further (EWA of USD/CAD)[*]Japanese Triangles (EWA of EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA)[*]Two possible fourth waves till the mid of June (EWA)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, August, 2006[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, August, 2006)[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, August, 2006)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, August, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comAugust 12, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd
Introduction
Price movement forecasted in Monthly-0706 preferred the alternate scenario. For the result refer to Figure Y1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0608/060812124207.gif
Figure Y1. Final daily chart of the WA, July, 2006.
For illustrative purposes last month schematic forecast of JPY behavior is shown here.
Current wave analysis
For wave analysis in large time frames refer to:
[*]USDJPY (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006)[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA).According to the main scenario currently wave (B) or (X) is forming, it is assuming the shape of downward triple zigzag.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0608/060812124251.gif
Figure Y2. Wave counting on the daily chart. The main variant.
The last downward fifth-wave, which may be wave of Z, is supposed to be completed. In case the supposition is correct wave of the final zigzag Z may form by the end of August. Ending of the second wave-link X is the critical level for this scenario.
108.5 and 106.5 are the most preferable levels for the triple zigzag (B) or (X) completion. Several projections of its ending, calculated by the main correlations of zigzag waves and fibo coefficients, are placed there.
As forming lines of the triple zigzag are assuming the shape of the expanding pattern, we may assume that the zigzag ending will not reach the lower edge of the channel.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0608/060812124334.gif
Figure Y3. Wave counting on the daily chart. The alternate variant.
According to the alternate variant downtrend should continue immediately. Two possible variants of wave counting are given in Figure Y3.
For more information refer to Daily Wave Analysis.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY (Wave Analysis)[*]CAD possible perspectives till 2008 and further (EWA of USD/CAD)[*]Japanese Triangles (EWA of EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA)[*]Two possible fourth waves till the mid of June (EWA)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, August, 2006[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, August, 2006)[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, August, 2006)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, August, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comAugust 12, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 15:36 编辑 ]