七月 22, 2008 - 08:12 上午Energy: Good......Indexes: BadI'm having a very good morning so far, but no thanks at all to my index puts. Even though my $RUT and $SPX puts did wonderfully at the start of the day (thanks to a ton of bombshell earnings yesterday), the new market theme indeed seems to be Earnings Could Be Even Worse, So Buy! So if you're a bank that lost $10 billion, but you might have lost $12 billion, investors are gobbling you up.
I've been "weeding" my charts for any underperformers or those that seem to have fulfilled their destiny. I am pretty floored by the strength in indexes, particularly $RUT, but I guess the bounceback still has some life in it.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1482&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1482&state=present&height=600&width=600
Posted: 08:12 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
七月 17, 2008 - 04:36 下午Earnings GaloreWell, this is the day we've all been waiting for - - and what terrific results were offered after hours! There are an avalanche of earnings out there - - IBM, Merrill Lynch, Microsoft - - the list is very long, and the vast majority of stocks I follow were either (a) getting hit; or (b) getting destroyed. I was watching Google most carefully after the close, which had closed around 533. I was watching the bid/ask like a hawk. For a moment I saw a bid of 550, but maybe some joker thought it was funny, because a moment later the bids below $500 starting falling in. As of this writing, the bid/ask for GOOG is around $490, which is indicated below with the purple tinted area. It will be interesting to see if we "fill the gap" (marked in green tint) any time soon, given this smack-down.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1438&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1438&state=present&height=600&width=600
So yesterday the Dow was up about 270, and today it was up over 200 again. Fantastic! I love it! It has provided me so many wonderful shorting opportunities. In fact, at this point, I have 100 positions. There are simply so many fantastic stocks out there. My energy shorts have been doing sensationally well, and I loaded up on some issues today that had been hoisted higher by the huge two-day rally in the financials.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1439&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1439&state=present&height=600&width=600
I took some more energy profits off the table today, since I think some of the selling has finished for a little while. But don't get me wrong - - I still have a huge quantity of bearish energy positions. I just got out of simple stuff, like OIH. Here is the Dow Jones index on which DUG is based:
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1440&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1440&state=present&height=600&width=600
Mentioning the $UTIL is getting to be a daily habit, but I just love this pattern. If the neckline is broken, I think we're heading for the purple zone below
Mentioning the $UTIL is getting to be a daily habit, but I just love this pattern. If the neckline is broken, I think we're heading for the purple zone below.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1441&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1441&state=present&height=600&width=600
I have amassed two very large positions on the $RUT (puts) based on the robust retracement to the retracement line you see below. This is the IWM (obviously).
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1442&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1442&state=present&height=600&width=600
I was also pleased to see the NASDAQ push its way back to almost precisely the underbelly of the fan line.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1443&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1443&state=present&height=600&width=600
I mentioned closing my OIH puts at excellent profits. You can plainly see why here.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1444&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1444&state=present&height=600&width=600
I mentioned 1270 being an important level of resistance for the S&P today. It got close enough to this line today for my satisfaction.
mentioned 1270 being an important level of resistance for the S&P today. It got close enough to this line today for my satisfaction.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1445&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1445&state=present&height=600&width=600
As for DUG, set aside your knowledge that this is based on energy. Just pretend the chart below is a regular company stock. Don't you think this looks terribly bullish? Look at the surge in volume and the wonderful trendline breakout. Isn't this a gorgeous graph? That's why I own a ton of this (remember, I put 100% of my IRA into this thing when it was about $29, and the gains have been handsome in the short amount of time since then).
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1446&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1446&state=present&height=600&width=600
Fashion provider to the younger set ANF has a sensational topping pattern. I have taken advantage of the retracement by buying puts.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1447&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1447&state=present&height=600&width=600
XEC has great profits, but I'm hanging on for more.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1448&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1448&state=present&height=600&width=600
CRK is one of the many momentum-driven "hockey stick" graphs whose puts I bought a week or so ago. Again, fantastic profits, but I am holding out for more.
CRK is one of the many momentum-driven "hockey stick" graphs whose puts I bought a week or so ago. Again, fantastic profits, but I am holding out for more.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1449&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1449&state=present&height=600&width=600
I bought puts on BTU yesterday based on its failed bullish breakout. This is a favorite technique of mine.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1450&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1450&state=present&height=600&width=600
POT was finally smoked today, as was MOS. I think there is still plenty of downside here.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1451&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1451&state=present&height=600&width=600
I re-entered my SOHU short (which I had closed a couple of days ago) since the retracement finished. The neckline isn't as clean as I'd like, but I'm willing to take a chance.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1452&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1452&state=present&height=600&width=600
I've got a straight equity short on HK with marvelous results. What will be hard for me - - VERY hard - - is to know the right time to exit plays like this.
I've got a straight equity short on HK with marvelous results. What will be hard for me - - VERY hard - - is to know the right time to exit plays like this.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1453&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1453&state=present&height=600&width=600
It was mentioned in the comments how instructive Friday's action will be, and I agree. If we somehow end with a positive market on the day, that will be a very, very bullish sign, because these earnings are very plainly disappointing. On the other hand, if the market gets smacked down hard, maybe we're in a new era of having to face the reality of weak earnings, which will thus push down valuations farther. We'll know soon! Good luck, stay humble, and stay nimble.
Posted: 04:36 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
七月 17, 2008 - 06:29 上午She Has Yellow TeethWell, besides having a government that the world doesn't respect very much, now we have something else in common with Pakistan - - - - the need for the government to outlaw short-selling in order to protect the whiny, childish, needful bulls. Allow me to point it out on the front page today:
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1434
Now just think about this for a minute. Can you imagine a creation of a downtick rule which demands that a person can't buy a stock unless it moves down in price? Or can you imagine the government forbidding going long a momentum stock, simply because it just seems to keep going higher and higher?
Of course you can't. And the reason you can't is because the bulls need mommy and daddy (the government) to wet-nurse them when things aren't going their way. Bulls have all the advantages, including a corrupt government on their side. So when things don't go their way, they whine and pout until chrome domes Paulson and Bernanke come to the rescue.
You might think I'm upset because the Dow was up 270 points today. On the contrary! Those of you who listened to my video heard me loud and clear calling for a major bounce higher. I said I had never been more confident of a bounce being in store. So I am delighted, thrilled, pleased, and contented that the surge happened. Terrific! It just creates more shorting opportunities! Added to which, my patented $SLIX indicator - the traffic on this site - flashed a clear "buy!" signal yesterday:
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1433
A lot of this was driven by an explosive rally in banks. Wells Fargo was up nearly one-third. Wells Fargo! This is a old, staid bank! And it moved higher on enormous volume, too. Long term, it's clear the financial system is heading for disaster. I don't think we've seen anything yet. These countertrend rallies are all just part of the unfolding collapse.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1420&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1420&state=present&height=600&width=600
I did three main things with my trading today:
[*]Took about 40% of my positions off the table with respect to energy (lightening positions, taking profits)[*]Took some profits early in the day on a handful of issues (and a loss - much more modest than I expected! - on takeover target ANR)[*]Very late in the day, re-entered a few positions, although the vast majority of my "hit list" is waiting in the wings, probably for tomorrowI think the Dow has a decent amount of resistance at about the 11,430 level, shown below.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1421&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1421&state=present&height=600&width=600
Sorry to bore you with another $UTIL graph, but this pattern just keeps getting more and more likely. It points to explosively higher interest rates, from what I can interpret.
Sorry to bore you with another $UTIL graph, but this pattern just keeps getting more and more likely. It points to explosively higher interest rates, from what I can interpret.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1422&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1422&state=present&height=600&width=600
I lightened up quite a bit on energy shorts today, with terrific profits. I think we're in for a bit of a breather here.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1423&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1423&state=present&height=600&width=600
Modest resistance for the S&P is at 1,270. It becomes much firmer at 1,315.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1424&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1424&state=present&height=600&width=600
I took half my profits on ICE yesterday and the other half today. I've drawn two necklines, and time will tell which is the real one. Obviously I am going to gobble up puts like a pig if it gets to the 110-115 area.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1425&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1425&state=present&height=600&width=600
I did re-enter one put today (having taking profits on it just yesterday!) - Blackstone Group. I'm cheating just a little bit on this neckline. I hope my flexibility isn't punished.
I did re-enter one put today (having taking profits on it just yesterday!) - Blackstone Group. I'm cheating just a little bit on this neckline. I hope my flexibility isn't punished.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1426&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1426&state=present&height=600&width=600
STT was a firm retracement today. I'm ready to re-enter my short.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1427&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1427&state=present&height=600&width=600
I've already short Textron. This looks like a very predictable pullback. Sweet.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1428&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1428&state=present&height=600&width=600
Another "STT-like" retracement is BLK.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1429&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1429&state=present&height=600&width=600
I'm going to re-enter SCHW short, provided it doesn't push higher than the right shoulder.
I'm going to re-enter SCHW short, provided it doesn't push higher than the right shoulder.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1430&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1430&state=present&height=600&width=600
This is a so-so graph. Not bad for a short. Meh.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1431&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1431&state=present&height=600&width=600
OK, that's it. I've been charting since before the sun came up. Enough! Bulls, thanks for the rally. Feel free to tack on some more. I'm waiting for you.
Posted: 06:29 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
七月 08, 2008 - 04:10 下午Slope OperaMy "theme" has been repeated so often, it risks getting tiresome, but I'll say it again: energy shorts and agriculture shorts (with index option day-trades thrown in for good measure in either direction). It has served me well recently.
Even though yesterday showed the potential for "The Bounce", it sputtered very quickly. Today, however, a push higher held, and in some cases, the push was quite substantial. The Dow's 152 point rise was actually one of the tamer ones:
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1334&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1334&state=present&height=600&width=600
Since we're in a bear market, I really, really like rallies, because they give me new opportunities. The giant question, as always, is this: does the rally represent a one-day wonder, or is this simply the start of a very substantial countertrend, like we saw in mid-March through mid-May? I don't know. The IWM, shown below, doesn't hit really serious resistance until around $71.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1335&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1335&state=present&height=600&width=600
I was excited this morning to see how quickly oil-related issues were plunging. Today's hammer pattern implies we're going to have a bit of a bounce short-term, but I think that for at least the medium-term, the high prices in crude were marked a few days ago.
was excited this morning to see how quickly oil-related issues were plunging. Today's hammer pattern implies we're going to have a bit of a bounce short-term, but I think that for at least the medium-term, the high prices in crude were marked a few days ago.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1336&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1336&state=present&height=600&width=600
In my IRA account, a couple of days ago, I went very bullish, putting all my cash into QLD, DDM, DUG, UYG, and UWM. Yesterday, July 7th, DUG's strength compensated for the weakness in the other four positions. Today, however, all five positions were up handsomely, particularly UYG, which benefited from the bounce I've been expecting from the world of investment banks.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1337&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1337&state=present&height=600&width=600
I was amused to see a headling that AMBAC had "surged over 50%" today. Yes, that's very true.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1338&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1338&state=present&height=600&width=600
But it's important to keep such things in context!
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1339&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1339&state=present&height=600&width=600
My puts on the $XAU had a decent day, but I am looking for much, much lower price levels from here.
My puts on the $XAU had a decent day, but I am looking for much, much lower price levels from here.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1340&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1340&state=present&height=600&width=600
With such a strong day for the bulls, it was particularly heartening to see one of my favorite put positions (and one of my largest ones) take it a bit on the chin. Clearly a break below last week's lows would spell great things for this position.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1341&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1341&state=present&height=600&width=600
But even more favorite than that is the chart I keep foisting on you - ICE. It went up today some, but that's OK with me. This pattern is uber-powerful.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1342&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1342&state=present&height=600&width=600
I bought some IBM puts today, although I've got fairly tight stops on it. It really depends on if this rally has legs or not.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1343&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1343&state=present&height=600&width=600
My short on RJF was already in place, but it's pretty clear to me from this chart that, in spite of a 11% lift in the price of the stock, the general direction is going to be down.
My short on RJF was already in place, but it's pretty clear to me from this chart that, in spite of a 11% lift in the price of the stock, the general direction is going to be down.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1344&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1344&state=present&height=600&width=600
I was going to buy a bunch of BAC and COF stock this morning, but I didn't have time. Ah, well. It's no surprise to see such a battered issue have a spring higher. This is the largest rise BAC has seen in months.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1345&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1345&state=present&height=600&width=600
The overinflation of OIH has definitely been let out to some degree. Looking at these fan lines, noodling around in the 200-210 range seems most likely.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1346&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1346&state=present&height=600&width=600
Here are a couple of short ideas. MTL.........
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1347&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1347&state=present&height=600&width=600
......and STT, which seems to be retracting back toward its broken trendline.
......and STT, which seems to be retracting back toward its broken trendline.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1348&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1348&state=present&height=600&width=600
Tomorrow is also going to be busy for me. ThinkOrSwim users, please note I will be doing the "chat" session at 2 p.m. PST, 4 p.m. CST, 5 p.m. EST, so please join me there. I have no idea what I'll talk about, but I'm sure I'll think of something good by then!
Posted: 04:10 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
七月 07, 2008 - 03:54 下午Rocky Mountain HighGreetings from world-famous Denver International Airport. Some of you may think that I travel a lot. I don't. I just complain a lot about it when I do. Today was a fine example of why I hate traveling - - it takes me away from the markets! Incredibly, with just a few "quickie" opportunities to check into the market, I had a dynamite day, even making money (both directions) with some large Russell put (and then call) positions.
Lately I have been very correct about:
[*]Fall in ag-related prices[*]Fall in oil-related prices....and I've been very incorrect about.......
[*]Bottom being in on investment banks[*]Equity markets being in position for a sustained bounceLuckily, for those last two, (1) I haven't touched an investment bank, either long or short, for weeks; (2) I've been able to play the long and short side of equity index volatility very profitably.
This morning, I had 1000 shares of DIA, and when the Dow was up 100, I had that funny feeling that there wasn't going to be any more upside short term. I sold out (for a whopping $600 profit, which is pretty puny for a $112,000 position!) and bought Russell puts (since I was amazed to see Russell actually slightly down, in spite of the Dow being up 100 at the time). Well, the Dow lost all that, and 150 more, and those Russell puts turned out fabulous. Later in the day, I went long Russell calls and closed those out for a profit as well. I am - - as is the case these days - - in no index positions at all. I am simply uncomfortable at these levels holding big positions overnight.
$XBD seems to simply have no bottom. I have given up guessing. It'll probably take another major brokerage going belly-up.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1315&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1315&state=present&height=600&width=600
DIA seems to be hitting at least a little support on its Fibonacci, but it's very, very weak. If we get a multi-week bounce, I'd expect a lot of strength on this one.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1316&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1316&state=present&height=600&width=600
The head and shoulders formation I've been watching for weeks on $UTIL continues to very slow shape up.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1317&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1317&state=present&height=600&width=600
OIH (finally!!!!) is starting to fall apart. It's about freakin' time.
OIH (finally!!!!) is starting to fall apart. It's about freakin' time.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1318&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1318&state=present&height=600&width=600
I am blown away how fast the Russell has fallen. Clearly here we have huge support from mid-January and mid-march. If we break mid-March, look out below.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1319&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1319&state=present&height=600&width=600
Adding credence to the idea of support is the $OEX touch of the retracement as well.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1320&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1320&state=present&height=600&width=600
S&P 500 broke its March lows (just look how far it has traveled since mid-May!!!). This has been a far more rapid bear swing than we've enjoyed in a long time.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1321&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1321&state=present&height=600&width=600
There's a lot of high-quality chatter going on in the comments section, and some of it is centered around DUG, which broke above resistance today on very, very strong volume.
There's a lot of high-quality chatter going on in the comments section, and some of it is centered around DUG, which broke above resistance today on very, very strong volume.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1322&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1322&state=present&height=600&width=600
Now a few favorite short positions......CERN is falling away from resistance......
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1323&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1323&state=present&height=600&width=600
XEC is one of many energy shorts that has great potential and has already paid off.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1324&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1324&state=present&height=600&width=600
If MasterCard breaks that major trendline at $240, it's an easy trip to $220, which is the measured target.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1325&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1325&state=present&height=600&width=600
Add PXD to the energy list....
Add PXD to the energy list....
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1326&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1326&state=present&height=600&width=600
I'm crazy about SOHU. I own a ton of these puts.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1327&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1327&state=present&height=600&width=600
AZO is move away from the retracement it made toward its diamond pattern.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1328&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1328&state=present&height=600&width=600
BHI has taken a while to ferment, but I think it's finally there.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1329&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1329&state=present&height=600&width=600
COP has sweet potential as a failed bullish breakout.
COP has sweet potential as a failed bullish breakout.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1330&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1330&state=present&height=600&width=600
DECK has been weirdly strong, but I've got hope for this one.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1331&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1331&state=present&height=600&width=600
And EOG is doing fantastically; very little support anywhere in sight!
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1332&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1332&state=present&height=600&width=600
I'm getting on a plane now. I will not have another post until VERY LATE Tuesday night. See you then!
Posted: 03:54 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
七月 05, 2008 - 04:01 下午The Wall of WorryI am writing this entry on Saturday, July 5th during a very pleasant three-day weekend in Colorado. I do not think I will have an opportunity to do another post until Monday night.
Over the past couple of days, I have spent a lot of time (as you might imagine) thinking about the markets and looking at the charts. The "contrarian-contrarian" viewpoint seems to be going something like this: "Since everything is so bearish (including this weeks' cover story of Barron's), then the obvious contrarian conclusion is that the market is going to bounce. But since so many contarians are so loudly declaring that we're a bounce is inevitable at this point, then we're bound to keep falling, because the market always like to surprise the most people possible."
That kind of thinking - - that is, trying to outguess what everyone on the planet is thinking - - can make you crazy. I prefer to stick to the charts. What the charts are telling me is that we're in for a bounce (and not the kind that lasts for just a few hours). I don't intend to get overly aggressive about this bounce. But I will say that (a) I took a huge portion of my positions either wholly or partly off the table on Friday, including all my index puts; (b) I went long a number of bullish ETF funds (the double-correlated kind); (c) I intend to make select long equity purchases on Monday, barring a surprise.
One index chart that seems terribly ripe for at least a few days of an upturn is the $XBD:
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1287&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1287&state=present&height=600&width=600
Looking at the $INDU, its price has the Bollinger Band distorted verybadly, and I think a list of about 700 points higher from here would bring a lot of needed relief to the market (and a new opportunity for the author and readers of this blog to reload).
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1288&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1288&state=present&height=600&width=600
The Transports, too, look ready to get back to about 5,100; a drop in crude prices, which I strongly suspect will happen, will provide an impetus for such a climb.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1289&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1289&state=present&height=600&width=600
My target for the retracement on the $MSH is about $580.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1290&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1290&state=present&height=600&width=600
As for OIH, this fell nicely on Wednesday and Thursday, and I can easily see this getting to below $200 this week.
As for OIH, this fell nicely on Wednesday and Thursday, and I can easily see this getting to below $200 this week.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1291&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1291&state=present&height=600&width=600
To see just how badly banking is battered (there's your alliteration for the day.......), look at this chart going back a dozen years. We are, at these levels, at depths not plunged since the nadir of the currency crisis of 1998, and we are well below even the most gruesome months of the 2000-2002 bear market.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1293&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1293&state=present&height=600&width=600
I read somewhere that GM was at the lowest levels for its stock since 1954. I'm not sure where they are getting that price data, but it's not really accurate, as you can see below. In any case, if you had bought GM when Lyndon Johnson was present, you would (even assuming 0% infllation for 40 years) still be in the red. Isn't that amazing?
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1294&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1294&state=present&height=600&width=600
The Russell generated fantastic profits for me last week. Obviously, a climb back to anywhere above $700 would make this a very enticing short. Until then, I shall either do nothing or dabble with intraday (not overnight!) call positions.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1295&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1295&state=present&height=600&width=600
The S&P 100 got close enough to its Fibonacci retracement for my satisfaction.
The S&P 100 got close enough to its Fibonacci retracement for my satisfaction.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1296&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1296&state=present&height=600&width=600
And the S&P 500 touched it nicely, creating what might be a firm triple bottom. If, later this year, the market resumes its downward trajectory, a break below these levels will be devastating for the bulls.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1297&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1297&state=present&height=600&width=600
Here's a different view of the same index with similar conclusions.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1298&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1298&state=present&height=600&width=600
The Midcap also touched its retracement nicely, and a climb to about $845 seems to be called for.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1299&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1299&state=present&height=600&width=600
I still have plenty of puts, but they are almost all in the energy or agriculture sector. Here are a few favorites........
I still have plenty of puts, but they are almost all in the energy or agriculture sector. Here are a few favorites........
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1303&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1303&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1304&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1304&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1306&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1306&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1307&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1307&state=present&height=600&width=600
I've been pretty repetitive about ICE, but I'm just crazy about this one.