九月 22, 2008 - 02:43 下午Autumnal GlowToday is the first day of Autumn, and I welcome it with open arms. Autumn is far and away my favorite season. It means the end of summer, which I hate. I hate the sun. I hate the heat (although here in the Bay Area, it's not bad; what would possess someone to live in a hellish environment like Phoenix or Las Vegas is beyond me, unless you are so old your body's thermo-regulatory system is shot). And all the bad things that have ever happened to me in my life took place in the summer. So, adios, wretched season. {raising middle finger at the calendar}
And welcome my beloved fall. Welcome the cool air and the dead leaves. Welcome the Halloween costumes and anticipation of the ski season. Welcome to the shorter days and the longer nights. Yes, it's my favorite time of the year, and here we are at the very beginning of it.
Now, it took gonads the size of beach balls to be so screamingly bearish in the face of the two most bullish days in market history, but I did it. I did it, and I was right. So hurrah for me.
Having said that, after the close, it dawned on me that the S&P 500 was precisely at its 23.6% Fibonacci level (on a medium-sized retracement, from 5/19/2008 to 9/18/2008). I wouldn't be at all shocked to see a bit of a bounce in the morning, and I suddenly wished I had the chance to have lightened up on this position. Oh, well. What's done is done! So I'm balancing some pats on the back with some butt-kicks too.
What I'm less worried about is oil and gold. Now, I've already admitted that I sold gold/silver way too early. That was a fantastic trade (thank you again, Gary!) and I only enjoyed half the move, if that. But I feel very good about where I am entering these gold/silver/oil shorts right now.
The chart to watch is EUR/USD. This has had a gargantuan upward since September 10th. I think it is very close to turning downward again, if it hasn't already. (Note: for some reason, the day's bar isn't showing below; click on the Present tab to see it up-to-date).
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In turn, there are a bevy of charts that "hang off" this which look exceedingly bearish. One of the best places to start is the one below, which is the basis for the DIG and DUG ETFs.
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And, likewise, $CRX seems ready to fly downward in a deflationary spiral.
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Oil's strength, I believe, will have ended today; that bold line around $90 on the USO is very strong indeed.
Oil's strength, I believe, will have ended today; that bold line around $90 on the USO is very strong indeed.
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The same goes for gold and silver. I entered some gold shorts on Friday, and there were down hard today. I added substantially to those positions. Notice the tremendous overhead on $XAU which I have tinted.
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I have a significant position in $NDX puts which I entered (thank God) near the peak on Friday. I held on to these tight and continue to do so. Here's a slice of that market, and this chart looks pretty sick to me.
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Even moreso, if the $COMPQ breaks that tinted area around 2,000, all hell is going to break loose.
Even moreso, if the $COMPQ breaks that tinted area around 2,000, all hell is going to break loose.
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Finally, I bought a chunk of FXP today, since I likewise feel China has fully retraced.
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If you want specific symbols, just look at my watch lists on the right column. I may not show any specific symbols for quite some time, because there are simply too many great things to short. It's just not worth the bother.
Let's hope for another good day tomorrow. I am absolutely delighted that the market is spitting in the eye of that traitorousson-of-a-bitch Paulson. It couldn't happen to a nicer guy.
Posted: 02:43 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
九月 03, 2008 - 04:52 下午When to Take Profits?Let me start off by saying this - - - if and when the S&P 500 finally breaks 1261, that level is going to change from our worst enemy to our best friend, because it is going to represent a wall of resistance that will be very tough for the bulls to overcome. Because this level is getting hit again, and again, and again............and again..........it is getting stronger all the time. That is bad for us now, because support is strengthening all the time. But if anything manages to act as a catalyst to finally push the S&P below this level, we have a new best friend. Time will tell.
There was a time on Wednesday when it looked like the market might finally crack, but no such luck. The thick red line you see for the $INDU is continuing to do a yeoman's job as support.
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Whereas IWM is clinging like iron to a magnet to its own Fibonacci level, which represented the exact midpoint between today's open and close.
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Most mesmerizing of all, of course, is the S&P 500 itself. This is, by my count, the eighth instance of the market trying to push below this level and failing to do so. If 1261 is breached, you are going to see an incredible rush for the exits.
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A closer look via minute bars amplifies this point.
A closer look via minute bars amplifies this point.
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Today was a very good day, however. I was especially delighted with the third day in a row of a meaningful drop in the $UTIL. Just one more day like this would crack that neckline without question.
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As I mentioned earlier, I took a fair bit of my oil/gold/ag profits off the table. Just look at the volume soar on OIH over the past week! I am thinking the dollar is going to weaken temporarily and gold/oil will push higher. This doesn't mean they are entering a new bullish phase; it simply means there could be some short-term strength.
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I have found USO to be another helpful chart to monitor when crafting a "theme" for my trading. Its approach toward the fan line compelled me to take some profits, but I would also note that any countertrend rally, for me, will simply represent new shorting opportunities.
I have found USO to be another helpful chart to monitor when crafting a "theme" for my trading. Its approach toward the fan line compelled me to take some profits, but I would also note that any countertrend rally, for me, will simply represent new shorting opportunities.
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As an object lesson, take a look at how a security can cut through its fan lines one after another. I expect the likes of OIH and USO to do the same.
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Knowing when to take profits is very tough - perhaps one of the toughest chores a trader faces. I saw enough charts that looked like the one below to convince me it was time to take some money off the table. This isn't a bullish graph, but the price levels certainly have reached a level of at least medium-strong support. A cut beneath such a line, of course, would be bearish, but I lightened up a lot of positions by 1/3rd, and in some cases, I took them out of my portfolio altogether.
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One item I sold (near its high today, in fact) was DUG. This has had a super profit in the very short time I've held it, but I'm not comfortable banking on it breaking above the summer's highs. Not yet, at least.
One item I sold (near its high today, in fact) was DUG. This has had a super profit in the very short time I've held it, but I'm not comfortable banking on it breaking above the summer's highs. Not yet, at least.
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There were a few standout issues today. MasterCard (MA) is seriously breaking down.
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First Solar's failed breakout has created a marvelous bearish chart. I bought puts on this a week ago, and they are doing very well.
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And Foster Wheeler (FWLT), in spite of having lost nearly half its value already, looks like it has plenty farther to fall.
And Foster Wheeler (FWLT), in spite of having lost nearly half its value already, looks like it has plenty farther to fall.
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I'm trying not to get greedy, since things are going so well. Responsible and "fresh" stops are the key, as is taking at least partial profits. I'm looking forward to seeing what happens next.
Posted: 04:52 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
九月 03, 2008 - 09:09 上午Take Some Ag/Energy/Gold Profits?I am seeing some potential short-term bounces that indicate I should take some cash off the table.
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Posted: 09:09 上午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
八月 28, 2008 - 05:00 下午Brutal YouthWell, there is one and only one trend in place - - - that is, me bellyaching about the markets and saying my post will be relatively short today.
This whole Sisyphus thing gets really old. Up, down, up, down, up, down - - all month long. You may ask: "Tim, why not take profits on days you are up?" Because the only way to make real money is to ride a trend...........at least for more than 6 hours at a time! My equity curve resembles the edge of a saw. Up, down, up, down, up, down. Insane!
The broken trendline is still intact and still has meaning. But by exceeding last Friday's highs, the market did some damage to the bears today.
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It was even worse in Russell-land; the resurgence in battered financial stocks helped the IWM and $RUT quite a bit, and the series of higher lows and higher highs, shown below, is troubling. Particularly since the downturn we were starting to enjoy a couple of weeks ago was stopped cold.
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I am feeling better about my bearish positions on oil and gold, however. Early this morning, oil and gold were briefly strong, but they gave up these gains and moved into the red. The horizontal line on the $XAU at 157.50 is formidable.
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You should also take note of the substantial bearish engulfing pattern on the OIH..........
You should also take note of the substantial bearish engulfing pattern on the OIH..........
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.........and the USO.............
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I was looking at the S&P 500 chart, and I found something interesting. Look at the three sharply ascending trendlines I've drawn (not the long purple ones, but the blue ones, below). It may not look like it, but all these lines are the exact same 70% angle. What I find kind of riveting about this chart is how, for the third time in a row, the market's countertrend is cleanly tracked by this line, and eventually prices fall away. Plus, with each succession, the amount of "recovery" time is getting shorter, and the amount of "climbing" time is shrinking too.
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I have avoided pursuing dead cat bounces in the financials. Those that have, for the moment, have prospered. Just look at the 300% gain in MBI, for instance, over the past six weeks.
I have avoided pursuing dead cat bounces in the financials. Those that have, for the moment, have prospered. Just look at the 300% gain in MBI, for instance, over the past six weeks.
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But you need to keep these things in context............as well as the potential for a resumption of the plunge.
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The biggest sign of my nausea with the market these days is my complete absence from the comments section. I usually really enjoy reading the comments, getting new ideas, and answering questions. But I am again (for the moment, at least) so put off by the market's whipsaw action that I don't even want to go there. Let's see if Friday does any better for us, or if this week is going to end on a sour note...........
Posted: 05:00 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
八月 26, 2008 - 07:09 上午Quiet MorningHi Everyone,
Not much going on at the moment; this is one of those comment-cleaner posts, mainly. As long as USO stays below 98.54 on this little bounce higher, I'm feeling good about my energy bearishness.
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If things remain relatively humdrum through the day, I'll do a post after the close. Thanks for swinging by!
Posted: 07:09 上午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
八月 21, 2008 - 12:01 上午Late Night DipThis is going to be a quick post, because it's nearly midnight, and even bears need their sleep.
The modest pop higher today in the equities market, as I said earlier, was healthy. Things played out pretty much as I've been anticipating - - - energy strong, gold strong, euro strong, and equities, not so much. The $INDU did a beautiful job pushing up precisely to its major 61.8% retracement level. This is the kind of "fighting back" that the bulls need to do in order to give them hope and exhausted any pent-up buying interest.
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The broader Russell index is more reflective of the market's underlying lack of strength. This spinning top shows the market's uncertainty, and prices are toying dangerously (for the bulls) with that 23.6% retracement level.
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Energy, in contrast, was quite firm and bounced from an oversold state. The $DJUSEN is the basis of the popular DIG and DUG exchange traded funds, and it pushed up nearly 3% today.
Energy, in contrast, was quite firm and bounced from an oversold state. The $DJUSEN is the basis of the popular DIG and DUG exchange traded funds, and it pushed up nearly 3% today.
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But this energy rally - like that of equities - will not continue indefinitely. I think the tinted areas below indicate similar periods when prices (here, for USO) consolidated for a couple of weeks beneath a fan line, only to succumb and resume the fall.
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As I am typing this, the plunge in Asian markets is causing a somewhat weak GLOBEX. Once this bear wakes up early Thursday morning, it'll be clear what effect the latest economic indicators on employment have on the new day. Good night!
Posted: 12:01 上午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
八月 08, 2008 - 09:39 下午The RiskGreetings from the San Francisco Marriott, where the Money Show is taking place. I'm way in the back of the room, waiting to go on stage for a couple of hours to throw charts at Tom Sosnoff. On the way down, a couple of gents recognized me and wanted to say they read my blog. One of them was very friendly and cordial. The other mentioned how he learned from "the mistakes people who write blogs make". Glad to help! :-|
Anyway, today was obviously a really rotten end to an otherwise really cool week. As my prior post stated, it's getting really frustrating dealing with a market that lurches - alternately - up and down. On the whole, it goes nowhere. This is like the third or fourth week that I basically haven't budged in terms of portfolio value, in spite of huge swings up and down. That's a hell of a lot of work to be standing still.
A person actively trading can either (a) take profits daily or (b) play for a trend and work toward much, much bigger profits. I've been focusing on (b), and it's been a dud. Doing (a) is fraught with risk and missed opportunities, but lately, it's been the way to go. I don't get my jollies out of spinning my financial wheels. Although I guess treading water is better than losing money.
Looking closely at $XBD, we need to watch that 165 level closely. Breaking the descending trendline would be bad news, bears.
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The DIA was very disturbing; it had huge volume, the biggest upmove in weeks (if not months), and a clean pierce above the resistance line. Not good. Super-firm resistance isn't in place until 122.
The DIA was very disturbing; it had huge volume, the biggest upmove in weeks (if not months), and a clean pierce above the resistance line. Not good. Super-firm resistance isn't in place until 122.
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The IWM is also very disturbing. We're above the Fibonacci and also at risk for cutting above that descending trendline. Next week puts us very "at risk".
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I've drawn a horizontal line on the NASDAQ to suggest one possible demarcation, but let's face it, there's not much holding the market back from pushing above this level. A rally to S&P 1320 might be a cinch for the bulls at this point. It's only 20 points away.
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Oil has been amazing week the past 30 days. I think the bull's back is broken on this, but I also think we're due for a meaningful bounce higher next week before the downtrend resumes.
Oil has been amazing week the past 30 days. I think the bull's back is broken on this, but I also think we're due for a meaningful bounce higher next week before the downtrend resumes.
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At this point, I'm sitting on a train with a bunch of rowdy baseball fans (it's a long story...........but I was speaking in San Francisco with Tom Sosnoff), so I'm going to end it here. I'm probably going to have a chunk of time in Las Vegas to put together something lengthier, but if not, please understand! I've got a big three-day show I'm doing with thinkorswim, and I'm speaking on four separate occasions, so I'll be pretty tied up. Today was rough, but try to have a good weekend! And to those of you going to Vegas, I'll see you there soon......
Posted: 09:39 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
七月 30, 2008 - 05:37 下午Monday, Monday......The reason for the title of this post is that I've received a number of very thoughtful and cohesive arguments from readers postulating that Monday will be the end of the "c wave" we are in and will kick off the "wonder to behold" wave 3. In other words, folks think the market is going to keep fighting its way higher (and the past two days have been fairly brutal, let me tell you!) until sometime on Monday, at which time things are going to fall absolutely to pieces for our bull friends.
On the surface, the market looks terribly strong; I had thought mid-day we might enjoy a reversal, but it was not to be. The Dow closed at its highs for the day, causing havoc to bearish portfolios everywhere.
Looking at the Fibonaccis, however, is a little more encouraging. The retracement I've put in bold appears to be decent resistance. I will note that those calling for Monday as the reversal would surely put the Dow's target (and, thus, the DIA's) at a higher level than this. "S&P 500 to 1325" has become virtually a cliche lately.
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Crude oil's strength today held the Transports back so that they were actually in the red, in spite of the Dow's nearly 200 point jump (adding to yesterday's 250 point jump!)
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I am somewhat chagrined to have written about DUG yesterday. I had a pretty big position in this - 2,000 shares - and early this morning I decided to sell it. Thank goodness, because I scored a very healthy profit, and by day's end it was actually a loss. I consider the red line I've drawn to be important support; if we seem to ease around the $32 level, I'll probably re-enter. You have to be nimble in a market like this, and when I saw this morning that we were not making new highs this month, I wasn't confident enough to hang on. My intuition was right this time
I am somewhat chagrined to have written about DUG yesterday. I had a pretty big position in this - 2,000 shares - and early this morning I decided to sell it. Thank goodness, because I scored a very healthy profit, and by day's end it was actually a loss. I consider the red line I've drawn to be important support; if we seem to ease around the $32 level, I'll probably re-enter. You have to be nimble in a market like this, and when I saw this morning that we were not making new highs this month, I wasn't confident enough to hang on. My intuition was right this time.
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Looking at the EUR/USD, we're at an important decision point - - the price is right on the fan line, yet it is also positioned for a potential breakout (see red horizontal line). My money is on the fan line being broken, which would naturally result in a drop in energy (and, thus, a rise in DUG).
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Another arrow in my "energy bear" quiver is the USO, which is approaching the underbelly of its broken fan line.
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As for OIH, can you see the three high prices around $212.50 in late June and eaerly July? I don't think those are going to be breached. That's my stop-loss level.
As for OIH, can you see the three high prices around $212.50 in late June and eaerly July? I don't think those are going to be breached. That's my stop-loss level.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1558&state=present&height=600&width=600
I bought puts on the $NDX (which were actually in the green during the middle part of today, in spite of the Dow's strength.......) and the $COMPQ seems to be bumping its head up against its lower channel line. Naturally my stop price on my index puts is set to the highs set on July 23rd.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1557&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1557&state=present&height=600&width=600
As for my best friend the Russell, this is by far my largest put position, and my stop is set to 726.27 (if memory serves). If we begin to seriously fall within the coming week, this could turn out to be a once-in-a-decade opportunity to be short this index. A push above May's highs would completely wreck that prospect.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1559&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1559&state=present&height=600&width=600
Now, in no particular order, a few favorite shorts of mine. Although I won't comment on these individually, I will point out that I am ga-ga excited over Bank of America. Just take a look at those retracement levels, particularly the one I've boldfaced.
Now, in no particular order, a few favorite shorts of mine. Although I won't comment on these individually, I will point out that I am ga-ga excited over Bank of America. Just take a look at those retracement levels, particularly the one I've boldfaced.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1560&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1560&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1561&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1561&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1562&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1562&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1563&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1563&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1564&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1564&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1565&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1565&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1566&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1566&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1567&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1567&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1568&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1568&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1569&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1569&state=present&height=600&width=600
Tomorrow morning's GDP report (8:30 a.m. EST) is going to be vitally important. That will probably dictate whether "the fall" begins Thursday or if we're going to have to stomach a push higher (much the same can be said of Friday morning's unemployment figures). The past two days have been no fun at all, but I think relief is coming soon.
Posted: 05:37 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink