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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=556&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=556&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=557&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=557&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=559&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=559&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=560&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=560&state=present&height=600&width=600
I mentioned oil - - the OIH is stark, raving mad. I don't tend to use "rubber trendlines", but I've had to with this one. That upper bound keeps getting pushed higher. And it's at the tippy-top of its Bollinger Band.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=558&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=558&state=present&height=600&width=600
I'm pressed for time now, so no time for commentary. I'm just going to throw charts your way. Here are some stocks from my current holdings on which I own puts and feel pretty good about (tip of the hat to ISRG today; you took away all the pain and more from my GOOG put).
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=561&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=561&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=562&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=562&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=563&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=563&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=564&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=564&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=565&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=565&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=566&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=566&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=567&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=567&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=568&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=568&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=569&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=569&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=570&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=570&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=571&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=571&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=572&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=572&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=573&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=573&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=574&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=574&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=575&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=575&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=576&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=576&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=577&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=577&state=present&height=600&width=600
That's it from me. In contrast to last Friday (when GE got torpedoed), this week was suck-o-roony. I truly hope next week is better. Until then, I bid you farewell!
Posted: 03:58 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
四月 04, 2008 - 09:23 上午Oil Too Hot to Handle?Pretty nasty day out there so far for the bears! And my oil-related positions have been taking a drubbing.
My largest one, OIH, is the one I watch most closely. My stop on this is $195, which was the all-time high set back on January 3 of this year.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=424
The risk is that OIH does a repeat of what it did back in 2006 and early 2007. There was a bearish looking pattern (blue tint), a bounce and subsequent drop (the yellow tint), and then an explosion higher to new highs (the magenta tint). I've repeated these tints for the late 2007 to present period. Of course, the magenta period for the present is conjectural at this point, and naturally if it fulfills, I'll be blown out of my OIH puts with a fat loss.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=425
Also in the world of energy, the solars are going bananas. I don't trade these, either long or short, simply because I don't find their charts particularly interesting. But there's no doubt this sector, of which FSLR appears to be the king has made a lot of bulls some money.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=426
The IWM continues its march to the high end of its 2008 range. Somewhat distressing. This is either a fantastic put-buying opportunity or the final set-up before the bulls blast the market higher. Would be nice to know which of those was about to materialize, wouldn't it?
Posted: 09:23 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
十一月 24, 2008 - 06:09 上午Google FibsFor being such an active and important stock, GOOG doesn't appear on this blog very often. I simply don't trade it that much. But I will point out how "obedient" it has been with respect to its retracement levels:
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2831&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2831&state=present&height=600&width=600
That's quite remarkable - an approximately 2/3rds loss in value in one year's time. To my way of thinking, GOOG seems poised to fight its way back to about $350 before resuming its plunge and cutting beneath 2008's lows.
Posted: 06:09 上午 | 76 insightful comments | Permalink
十月 07, 2008 - 07:56 下午Con DescensionThe social fabric is starting to tear. It's shocking and sad to start to read about the suicides, murder/suicides, and other violence that's starting to take place prompted by the nationwide meltdown. I imagine it's going to get worse over the years. Indeed, I think the social rage is going to reach a point where one or more of the super-rich execs (Richard Fuld or someone like that) will get shot down or otherwise killed. I'm not suggesting or condoning it; I am simply speculating that things are going to get so out of hand, that's how bad it's going to get. If I were one of these folks that had made hundreds of millions, I would probably leave the country and never go back. They're going to be hated. The little "shame, shame!" sessions we've seen in Congress the past couple of days are just the beginning.
I've reached the point where I've stopped listening to the bottom-pickers, including myself. I went long the market yesterday in a big way. I made out very well on my index calls, which I got out of this morning. Those calls would be huge losers (obviously) if I had simply hung on. As profitable as it has been, I'm starting to kind of hate this market. I feel like I'm a person who wants to catch fish, and there just happen to be bombers overhead dropping explosives into the pond. I'm able to get the fish, but the way I'm doing so is causing huge, horrible damage, plus it's terrifying.
You've probably seen, as I have, how economic cycles inflate different asset classes, and the last one to inflate is commodities. That's certainly what has happened recently. Remember all the hoo-ha this summer over expensive oil, expensive wheat, expensive gold, and expensive everything else? The air has come out of that really fast. I think we're heading for $50-$55 crude oil within a matter of months, if not weeks.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2259&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2259&state=present&height=600&width=600
What about wheat? Can you say "head and shoulders"?
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2260&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2260&state=present&height=600&width=600
The collapse that is taking place in equity prices is obviously shocking. For goodness sake, Ford is at 1986 prices, and there's almost nothing in the way of support between here and the bottom in 1982.
The collapse that is taking place in equity prices is obviously shocking. For goodness sake, Ford is at 1986 prices, and there's almost nothing in the way of support between here and the bottom in 1982.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2261&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2261&state=present&height=600&width=600
General Motors is even worse; Richard Nixon was in office when prices were at these levels.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2262&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2262&state=present&height=600&width=600
Some charts almost defy belief. Just look at the collapse here once support was taken out.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2256&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2256&state=present&height=600&width=600
I have found technical analysis to be more helpful than ever during the collapse. Notice how BA is obediently staying beneath its broken channel.
have found technical analysis to be more helpful than ever during the collapse. Notice how BA is obediently staying beneath its broken channel.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2257&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2257&state=present&height=600&width=600
Some folks have asked about GOOG (down over 25 points today, and down nearly 60% from its high). It is at a major resistance level here. Break it, and down we go.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2263&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2263&state=present&height=600&width=600
IBM is likewise at a pretty major resistance point (a fan line).
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2265&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2265&state=present&height=600&width=600
XRX is sort of like AIG in the respect that it penetrated a really obvious support level and has been sailing downward ever since.
XRX is sort of like AIG in the respect that it penetrated a really obvious support level and has been sailing downward ever since.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2266&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2266&state=present&height=600&width=600
Speaking of (thin) support - check out $CZH. It is right at the lowest fan line. It's either bounce or break at this point.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2267&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2267&state=present&height=600&width=600
Looking at the DIA, here again we have strong support and very little beneath. The case for a bounce is strong. The case for a crash, if this is broken, is just as strong.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2268&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2268&state=present&height=600&width=600
Here's a different view of the same market. A crash, I think, would take us to between 7,750 and 8,400, depending on what line provided support.
Here's a different view of the same market. A crash, I think, would take us to between 7,750 and 8,400, depending on what line provided support.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2269&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2269&state=present&height=600&width=600
Don't even get me started on the SDP ($UTIL) trade. Talk about money left on the table. It has fully realized its H&S potential.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2270&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2270&state=present&height=600&width=600
Commodities look like they've entered a major bear market; I would short any major bounce here like nobody's business.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2271&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2271&state=present&height=600&width=600
The charts just keep coming! The NASDAQ Composite has the same story as the Dow 30. We're at support. There's nothing but air underneath. If we don't bounce (pretty much immediately), it's crash time.
The charts just keep coming! The NASDAQ Composite has the same story as the Dow 30. We're at support. There's nothing but air underneath. If we don't bounce (pretty much immediately), it's crash time.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2272&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2272&state=present&height=600&width=600
I'm very short OIH. I have ambitious target.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2273&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2273&state=present&height=600&width=600
The Russell looks like it has very strong support at the tinted area shown.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2274&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2274&state=present&height=600&width=600
OK, that's enough .Off to bed. Tomorrow we either bounce big or head into a free-fall. I'm as nervous as ever, but comforted at least by the guidance the charts provide.
八月 27, 2008 - 01:41 下午UrfMy portfolio took a 5% haircut today. That's no surprise, considering the strength in both equities and commodities. Oh, well; not every day can be a winner!
I have been very absent from comments lately, so please don't be insulted if you think I'm ignoring you. I'm not. I don't even have the chance to ignore you, since I'm not there! I am simply mired in other activities.
As was the case yesterday, I don't have a tremendous amount to say about the markets; there simply isn't much from a technical perspective happening. It was interesting to see AMLN, which I've this blog, take a 25% tumble. Sometimes it takes a little while for a stock to finally succumb to technical forces. Needless to say, that horizontal resistance line proved important.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1828&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1828&state=present&height=600&width=600
The markets continue to be in F.I.M. (Farting Around Mode); here we see the Dow 30 biding its time beneath its busted wedge. Snore.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1829&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1829&state=present&height=600&width=600
The Russell was up percentage-wise more than most indexes, but it hasn't broken its modest series of lower lows and lower highs.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1830&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1830&state=present&height=600&width=600
A variety of issues that were severely battered by the credit crisis have, over the past several weeks, been up in some cases even hundreds of percent. FRE and FNM have been very strong this week, but to my eyes, this is nothing more than another lurch toward that sharply descending trendline.
A variety of issues that were severely battered by the credit crisis have, over the past several weeks, been up in some cases even hundreds of percent. FRE and FNM have been very strong this week, but to my eyes, this is nothing more than another lurch toward that sharply descending trendline.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1831&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1831&state=present&height=600&width=600
I have been quietly accumulating a large position in DUG; this isn't a money-maker yet, and I've got a stop at that red line you see.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1832&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1832&state=present&height=600&width=600
The "Jesus Pattern" of ANR (click on Present Chart to see it more plainly) isn't spiritually inspirational yet. A push above the high set early in August would take me out of this position. At least the volume has been withering away.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1833&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1833&state=present&height=600&width=600
I am, however, pretty pleased with GOOG. In spite of some big strength in the NASDAQ, GOOG has been sinking. Some overall weakness in the markets could push this back into the three hundreds.
am, however, pretty pleased with GOOG. In spite of some big strength in the NASDAQ, GOOG has been sinking. Some overall weakness in the markets could push this back into the three hundreds.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1834&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1834&state=present&height=600&width=600
That's it for me today; I'm not trying to squander the wonderful traffic I've built up over all these months with lame posts, but today just doesn't call for any more commentary. And with that, I shall return to my work! See you tomorrow.
Posted: 01:41 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
七月 25, 2008 - 09:13 上午A Few FavoritesHere are a few charts I pulled in the wee hours of the morning for you to ponder.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1518&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1518&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1516&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1516&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1517&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1517&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1515&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1515&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1514&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1514&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1512&state=original&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1512&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1512&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1511&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1511&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1510&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1510&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1509&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1509&state=present&height=600&width=600
And the one I suggested on July 8th - - when it was $45! - -
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1508&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1508&state=present&height=600&width=600
Posted: 09:13 上午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink