The NASDAQ Composite (which is going to get affected strongly after tomorrow's AAPL earnings) is likewise beneath its ~2,420 horizontal line. We've also got the advantage of being at the upper end of that channel you see.
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I confess to being obsessed with OIH these days. In spite of a record close (yet again) for crude oil, we actually fell more than a percentage point here. As you can see, OIH is a good 40 points above any really serious support. But, God almighty, this thing has a lot of bulls behind it.
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I've got a decent-sized position on the Russell 2000 (and the NASDAQ 100) indexes. Around 725 or so is the extremely important line in the sand.
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There are plenty of stocks which are tempting to short simply because they are really "expensive." I put that in quotes, because shorting these momentum plays is dangerous. I have done it in a few cases, but usually I'm a little sensible and avoid stuff like CLF....
There are plenty of stocks which are tempting to short simply because they are really "expensive." I put that in quotes, because shorting these momentum plays is dangerous. I have done it in a few cases, but usually I'm a little sensible and avoid stuff like CLF....
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.......and PBR. All the same, I wouldn't be surprised (one day, one day) to see these get crushed. They could remain in a full bull pattern, but even a "easing back" to the trendline could blow 30% to 40% off of these.
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I did buy puts in NLY. I usually don't go for such cheap stocks, but this one is pretty alluring.
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I've also got puts in APA. It's dangerous, of course, but there's got to be a falling-away from these bands sometime soon.
I've also got puts in APA. It's dangerous, of course, but there's got to be a falling-away from these bands sometime soon.
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AAPL had a nice down day, but a GOOG-like event after tomorrow's close would knock these out. We'll see.
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I like my BHI puts a lot, not only due to the Bollinger Bands, but also due to that trendline retracement.
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XEC is another nutty momentum one. I didn't say I was immune to pursuing these. I just try to keep them from being all my positions!
XEC is another nutty momentum one. I didn't say I was immune to pursuing these. I just try to keep them from being all my positions!
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If CNX fell to sometime like $70, I'd probably close it. But that's still 15 points away.
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First Solar (FSLR) is above $300, but I'm staying away. Its pattern is still plausibly bullish. Its cousin, though, SPWR, looks far more vulnerable.
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Finally, my holding with GENZ did pretty well today. This pattern continues to shape up.
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I will be traveling on business over the next 30 hours from this writing, so posts will be less frequent (and comments near non-existent). Be strong!
Posted: 02:17 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
四月 11, 2008 - 04:17 下午Watch All Five. Top to Bottom.
Posted: 04:17 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
One chart which scares me a bit is the Transports. This has a well-defined inverted head and shoulders pattern. Of course, this pattern isn't exactly at the bottom of a long, multi-year downturn, which would make it exciting for bulls. The pattern is there, yes, but typically these things are explosive after a market's value has been ground down to absurdly cheap levels. In this instance, it may pop, but I doubt it would rise to the 6,000 point level that is suggested by traditional measurement techniques.
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Now, a few stocks. I've actually turned bearish on gold. It stinks that the XAU's options are so thinly traded, so I have to stick with stuff like ABX instead, on which I bought puts today.
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ACL is enticing. It's got a clean stop at around $155, and a break below that horizontal line at $128 would be sensational.
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CEPH is a terrific little graph. The neckline, as I've pointed out before, has a tilt to it, but the stop price couldn't be cleaner.
四月 03, 2008 - 03:38 下午Don't Dream It's OverSo we wait. And wait, and wait, and wait.
My expectation, naturally, is that we can resume the party sometime soon. I sure hope so. If we have another big pop like Tuesday, we could be really hosed for a while. At the moment, the market has returned to its complacent recess period, which it seems to do every ten weeks or so. I've highlighted on the $VIX chart below these "time out" periods before we bears can start to have fun again. It's a drag.
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The IWM remains tantalizing (or terrifying) close to its resistance line. I'll be sweating this one out at 5:30 a.m. Friday when the employment numbers hit. Of course, now that the market has returned to its bizarre way of embracing horrible news, it's hard to imagine any employment report that would be anything but positive. Citicorp could declare bankruptcy, and its stock would double instantly, given the logic of the market these days. Witness the surge this week on UBS after its $14 billion writeoff.
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The Dow 30, likewise, is twiddling around the 12,700 area, waiting for a break in either direction. I am bellying about the market a lot right now, but honestly, if we're still in the midst of a bear market, there is never a better time than now to be gobbling up puts, because in retrospect they will look dirt cheap.
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One chart which scares me a bit is the Transports. This has a well-defined inverted head and shoulders pattern. Of course, this pattern isn't exactly at the bottom of a long, multi-year downturn, which would make it exciting for bulls. The pattern is there, yes, but typically these things are explosive after a market's value has been ground down to absurdly cheap levels. In this instance, it may pop, but I doubt it would rise to the 6,000 point level that is suggested by traditional measurement techniques.
CEPH is a terrific little graph. The neckline, as I've pointed out before, has a tilt to it, but the stop price couldn't be cleaner.
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I got back into ICE today, too (puts, naturally). The $155 stop price is a few bucks off, but I'm willing to be a little early.
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As for the investment banks, they still don't know what to do with themselves. I've got puts on JPM's gigantic megaphone pattern. To me, the likelihood of this stock goer lower far exceed its chances of going higher.
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Good night, everyone. I'm exhausted......time for some rest!
Posted: 03:38 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
四月 01, 2008 - 02:30 下午Nasty!I'm not going to sugarcoat it: today sucked for me! A nearly 400 point rally does not do good things for a bear's portfolio!
I wasn't laid waste or anything like that. I guess I got stopped out of about 1/5th of my positions, and the rest of them took on some pretty serious damage. But I've suffered through these gigantic rallies before, and - - at least so far this year - - my portfolio has pushed on to record highs each time the market shakes off the bullishness.
Looking at the IWM, you can see the gargantuan overhead resistance (tinted in blue) and the intermediate term downward trend (the red sloping line). A meaningful push above $73 on the IWM would be really, really bad.
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The Dow has a similar chunk of overhead resistance spanning some 1400 points, although we're only about a hundred points away from the underbelly of this level.
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I took on a small put position on the S&P today, about an hour before the close, and I intend to add to it if things stall in the high 1300s. The VIX is relatively low, but obviously any put-buying is a contrarian act; you take the risk with the reward, after all.
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My $NDX puts took serious damage today, as this market exploded nearly 5% higher. To my way of thinking, we are nearing both the underside of the broken trendline as well as the underside of the Fibonacci level, so I really expect some diminishment of bullishness soon.
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I love what the FXI did today..........nailing both a descending trendline and the underside of its broken upward trendline. I bought puts on this at the circled price point.
I love what the FXI did today..........nailing both a descending trendline and the underside of its broken upward trendline. I bought puts on this at the circled price point.
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I guess I'm a little bullish on gold right now. I picked up some calls on ABX and a couple of other stocks.
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I have no position on AGN yet, but I'm keeping an eye on this one. I'd love to buy some puts if the price got to about $61 or so, which is pretty close.
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After such a crappy day, it's time for a belly laugh. Enjoy.
Posted: 02:30 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 27, 2008 - 10:09 上午Drumming FingersIf I were a true day trader, I would have been smart enough to bounce out of all my indexes when the IWM kisses its lower retracement level. But I'm more of a swing trader, and hence my big fat green profit swung to a big fat red loss. So here we wait, ad nauseum, for a level to be broken. To the downside, God willing.
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Posted: 10:09 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 27, 2008 - 08:11 上午A Chance at Topping Out?The IWM is starting to look more encouraging. We've got to break the Fib level at 69.05, though.
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Posted: 08:11 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 26, 2008 - 08:53 上午What about Gold and Oil?Well, it's hardly a rout, but 100+ points off the Dow as of this writing is a nice change. My index puts (SPX, NDX, RUT, DIA) are all doing dandy.
I had a field day over the past few weeks with oil and gold shorts, and I got out last week. I've been getting back in - - in some cases, too early - - although my interest in oil shorts is much stronger than gold shorts. I think gold as as commodity could shock everyone, heading to $2,000/ounce, so I'm not getting too freaky with the shiny stuff. I do find ABX an interesting "kiss the trendline" opportunity, so I've got a small position on those puts.
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The slippery stuff, on the other hand, is getting possibly enticing again.
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The IWM is pretty key at this point as for the indexes. The next Fib level to break is 69.05, and that's a ways away at this point (IWM is 69.67 as of this writing). IWM is in between Fibs at this point, so we'll just have to bide our time.
Posted: 08:53 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 25, 2008 - 02:44 下午Shouldn't Something Happen About Now?The surging popularity of Slope isn't lost on political pollsters, and in a desperate move to turn their fortunes around, the Clinton campaign contacted me not long ago so that Hillary herself could provide running commentary during the trading day.
Sadly, given the market's behavior of late, this went poorly for both viewers and candidate alike. I managed to get a screen shot off Slope TV.
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It seems to me that it's about time that Something Happen. After all, weren't we getting a Bomb-Per-Week recently? C'mon, market newsmakers - show your stuff! Let another investment bank fail!Expose a fraud! Something! This is getting dull! You can even see the dullness in volume shriveling up. It's less than half what it what a week ago!
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Oh, this is totally random, but I offer you the least surprising event of my Facebook news feed today.
The Fibonacci retracement has been doing an admirable job keeping a line in the sand from being crossed. I hope it continues to do so.
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What if it doesn't? What if the IWM, in spite of yet more economic bad news today, pushes above the 70.35 level? Well, there's a much bigger line in the sand above that. Of course, if it crosses above that, I don't even want to think about it.
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I am somewhat heartened that maybe this little bull run has petered our. At least that's what the slow stochastic is indicating to me. I've tinted in prior instances of the SS pushing above the 80 line.
I am somewhat heartened that maybe this little bull run has petered our. At least that's what the slow stochastic is indicating to me. I've tinted in prior instances of the SS pushing above the 80 line.
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You can see in the lists on the right column what my holdings are, and investment banks are scattered here and there. When I look at a graph like this, the possibilities to me are very exciting.
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I'm going to close it here. I'm not as chatty as usual, because there isn't nearly as much to chat about. But I'm waiting for another shoe from the centipede to drop. Until then, we wait. Like Hillary.
Posted: 02:44 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 24, 2008 - 11:10 上午Picture Perfect RetracementOh my Gawd, it's so bee-yoo-tee-ful. I'm all verklempt!
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Posted: 11:10 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 20, 2008 - 10:04 上午Surprisingly PlacidConsidering the insanity of the past 8 trading days as well as the quadruple witching going on today, I'm amazed how quiet things are. This feels like the calmest day of the entire week!
I've trimmed back some on OIH. I still feel great about oil-related bearish positions in the coming weeks, but I don't mind taking some cash off the table since we're boinking around a long-term trendline at this point.
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My call on XAU was superb. My close was good, but not superb! I was a day early. Ah, well. Lots of worse things could have happened!
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As for the index markets, I am feeling more cautious and defensive. It's all well and good to have our "rectangle of resistance", but there is some pretty serious basing going on, tinted below, which could provide enough strength to blow that rectangle out of the sky in the weeks ahead.
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Posted: 10:04 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 19, 2008 - 06:53 上午RegroupingOK, after yesterday's quote-induced debacle, I'm ready to suit up again.
I've recommitted myself to $RUT puts ($710 Aprils) with a stop at 723.93. Looking at the IWM, we have pushed all the way up to the bottom of our Rectangle of Resistancetm
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I am delighted with my gains on the $XAU puts (in spite of the horrendous bid/ask - - 31.90 by 35.90 - -are you kidding me???) but I've trimmed back the position about 20%.
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Posted: 06:53 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 17, 2008 - 06:26 上午How Much Pleasure Can One Bear Take?Last week was amazing in the world of politics and business. Just one thing after another. I was still catching up on Friday's paper during Sunday, the news was so cool and dense. Spitzer. Scruggs. Obama. Bush's moronic speech in New York on Friday. Just waist-deep in news and events. I'm a news junkie, so it was awesome.
And here we enter a new week with the financial world is total turmoil and chaos.
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For myself - - - wimpy little puss-man that I am - - - I'm probably going to bail on my index -puts almost immediately since they're going to be at a compelling area.
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I would imagine the VIX is going to start blasting toward 40. There's no way for me to tell, of course, what's going to happen in the next few weeks, but I'm operating under the assumption this awesome party may be nearing an intermission or pause of some sort. But I've got 80 puts, and even if I dump my index puts, that still leaves with me 78!
Good luck out there, folks. This is going to be one hell of a ride.
Posted: 06:26 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 14, 2008 - 06:07 下午The Usual Gang of Idiots
Posted: 06:07 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 14, 2008 - 08:53 上午iamtim
Posted: 08:53 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 13, 2008 - 09:22 上午The Artful DodgerI am really, really, really pleased with what happened this morning. The market fell 200 points,Perfect.
I've redrawn my IWM Fibonaccis slightly, and I'm happy with the results. Please take note. This market rocks.
By the way, I reloaded my Russell puts when the IWM was at the level shown here (66.83). I am what Willis what talking about.
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Posted: 09:22 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 12, 2008 - 09:18 上午Keep It ComingI bought puts yesterday when the market was up 320. It closed up 416.
I bought more this morning when the market was up 50. It then proceeded to go up over 100.
So I'm certainly not getting these things are the cheapest price possible, and they are in the red so far. But I'm honestly totally cool with that. I am basing these purchases on the notion that this is a big bear market rally and is simply another profit opportunity.
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Posted: 09:18 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 10, 2008 - 09:07 下午UnigraphMy Internet connection is miserably slow, so I think I'll go through charts early in the morning before the open. It was a great day for oil and gold shorts - - - those have been doing fantastically - - but I remain extremely cautious about a strong bounce. The IWM seems to have been badly wrung out, and although I've been wrong on this before - - witness today's 150 point drop (approximately) on the Dow - - I still am devoid of index positions and am playing it defensively.
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Posted: 09:07 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 10, 2008 - 05:51 上午Exhausted?It seems the bad economy and battered markets are all anyone is talking about, which in itself is probably a (very short term) bullish signal. In a market like this, I'd never try to ride those little waves up. I'd rather just update my stops and stay put.
Looking at the IWM over the past 60 days, it's been making a push toward that next Fibonacci level down, but visually it doesn't seem to quite have the "oomph"to crack through. I think it's more likely we get another little leg up before we get our pitching arm tuned up for that throw.
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I have no equity index positions at all right now. What would entice me would be a climb toward that 66.75 level on the IWM. I think that's the current line in the sand between the bulls and the bears. A relief rally toward that level would drop the risk enough for me to feel comfortable.
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For the moment, my bearish plays are heavily weighted in oil- and gold-land. I'll be in back-to-back meetings today, so I won't be in the comments section, but good luck, and I'll see you at some point after the close (perhaps on the late side).
Posted: 05:51 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 03, 2008 - 01:37 下午The ArcI'm sorry, but today's post is going to be a bit bore-i-fic. Had we closed down, say, 100 points, I'd have more to say, but with a close of only 7 points off the Dow, it's clear we are still in the Price Range Purgatory that has become so maddening.
For the Russell 2000, which was rather weak today when compared to other major indexes, at least we're starting to "arc down." It's almost uncanny, since I am able to draw an oval that neatly matches the low prices that are being hammered out. It's slow, it's steady, and it's getting kind of tedious.
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So we may be, for the zillionth time, having to brace ourselves for another bounce to the upper end of the range. The only big event this week (which is planned, anyway) is the jobs report on Friday morning before the open. Of course, the Obama/Clinton results late Tuesday night will be the big political news, but I'm not sure how much that would affect the markets. After all, it's pretty obvious that, barring a terrorist attack on the U.S., one of these (probably Obama) is going to be our new President, and taxes across the board - including, notably, capital gains - are going to go way higher.
Looking at the DIA's doji pattern - - the first I've seen on the DIA in quite some time - - strengthens the idea of a bounce tomorrow. Bummer. I was really looking forward to things getting mushy again!
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The bottom line is that my portfolios profits went up huge today, and then sank back down to where they started. A total waste of a market day. So there's really nothing more to say at this point, since I'm exactly where I was at this weekend in both my thinking and my portfolio value. I'll see you tomorrow morning, when perhaps there will be more to discuss.
Posted: 01:37 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink