九月 10, 2008 - 04:43 下午Disappointment is Job One!Now things are starting to get interesting! A day like Tuesday was almost too easy; not that I'm begging for a challenge or anything. It's been challenging enough being bearish (until recently). But the economic reports that come out Thursday and Friday should help give the market an impetus one way or another.
The reason for the subject of this entry is that bear markets feed off of disappointment. The bulls want a savior - - a white knight - - and what we bears want is for the bulls to embrace that white knight and realize (quickly) that it doesn't make any difference. The latest example (and it's a huge one) was the Monday bailout. The thrill from the largest government intervention in human history last all of one - count 'em, one - trading day. (One a vast smaller scale, the thrill of the LEH strategy, which caused a flood of exciting buying this morning, fizzled away into nothing; after-hours, LEH is plunging to prices now seen since 1998).
I'm really focused on the big ETFs right now, since they yield the best clues as to future direction. Their obedience to the Fibonacci retracements has been amazing. Look at the low on the DIA today, perfectly touching the short-term retracement. From a candlestick viewpoint, this indicates real indecision (but we all knew that already!)
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The same can be said of the SPY; the market is struggling with what to do next. Today's lows got very near the lows witnessed last week (without breaking beneath).
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The IWM was especially interesting, since it is trading below a major and important retracement level; the candlestick of today closely resembles that of last Friday. The tug of war between bulls and bears is getting fierce.
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Looking at a much longer time frame, you can see why I am so bearish. There is still ample room to fall, even if major support is not broken. On the Russell 2000 alone, there are nearly 200 points between current levels and major support.
Looking at a much longer time frame, you can see why I am so bearish. There is still ample room to fall, even if major support is not broken. On the Russell 2000 alone, there are nearly 200 points between current levels and major support.
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Not to make the $UTIL an every day chart, but here it is again in all its glory. I am going to use this as an important tool in deciding when the bear market is finished (at least medium-term).
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For goodness sake, the EUR/USD is still due for a bounce. If it firms up, I'm looking for it to head back to that tinted zone, around 1.43; in turn, oil and gold should rise.
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I did buy ten different calls today, all energy- and gold-related. My view is that the $XAU (which finallly moved up today!) will head back to the mid- to high-130s before plunging anew.
I did buy ten different calls today, all energy- and gold-related. My view is that the $XAU (which finallly moved up today!) will head back to the mid- to high-130s before plunging anew.
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Having said that, there are a number of issues which seem to have experienced fundamental breakdowns and, in spite of today's strength, seem to simply be setting up for another fall (already). Here are a couple of examples.
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Remember when I used to do just five posts in an entire week? This blog has become a bit out of control, and I'm doing more like 40 a week now! Yowie, I really need to get my life back.
九月 10, 2008 - 08:10 上午I Worry Too MuchThis is a bear market. I am a bear. I am going to make a lot of money.
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The SPY is behaving perfectly vis a vis the Fibonacci levels. Keep watch.
Posted: 08:10 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
九月 09, 2008 - 08:29 上午SPY Gap FilledWell, the gap from yesterday's explosive opening has been filled with today's lows. I've gone a bit nuts with $SPX puts at this point, establishing a six-figure position. If we can make another push lower on the SPY, below 124.99, it's time to par-tay.
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Posted: 08:29 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
九月 08, 2008 - 09:59 上午Get Out of the Triple DigitsWell, it's been all well and good to fade and pop this morning. But now what? The Dow got down to "only" up 100 points. Will that be the low of the day? If so, things aren't as jumping-up-and-down bearish as I'd like to see. If we can manage to get out of this triple digit rise territory, I'll breath easier.
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Posted: 09:59 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
九月 08, 2008 - 04:56 上午Heed These LinesThese are short-term Fibonacci retracements on IWM, SPY, and DIA. Pay attention to these levels. One cool feature of the Original/Present chart tab is that you can see where current prices are vis a vis these lines once the market opens by clicking on the Present tab for any given chart.
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Posted: 04:56 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
七月 10, 2008 - 10:52 下午This I BelieveWe are now in Day Eight of the "grind-out-it" basing, frustrating bulls and bears alike. Amidst all this uncertainty, let me make plain what I believe:
(1) During 2008, probably within the next several months, we will reach about 10,700 on the Dow, and possibly go as low as just below 10,000
(2) The Dow will not see levels above 12,000 again for a number of years
(3) In the next few weeks, we will either see a countertrend rally or, if not that, swiftly break to the levels mentioned above
The last trading day of this week, Friday, should be interesting. I am long puts on both the $NDX and $RUT, but it's entirely possible I could have to bail on those at a loss. I am slightly inclined toward a drop on Friday, so I am prepared for it. I am far more confident of my energy shorts, but we'll see how it goes.
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DUG is fascinating. Its behavior with respect to its support line (formerly resistance) is highly compliant.
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There are a number of issues that have been severely battered and, should the Dow start to truly move higher, these issues in turn should have meaningful strength. Check out the hammer today on CAT.
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I don't think I've offered this short idea yet, but BIG is pretty interesting, and it has a nice, tight stop.
I don't think I've offered this short idea yet, but BIG is pretty interesting, and it has a nice, tight stop.
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My puts on DECK has been relatively moribund, but today was a step in the right direction, particularly given the overall strength in the equities market.
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Oh, and then there's ICE, which I've been mentioning on practically a daily basis. I closed out 1/3rd of my position on this today with a 100% profit. This may sound insane, but I think it is within reason to target a price of $45 or so on this one.
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I haven't had a position in CMG for a long time, but I'm proud of bringing this to the attention of my readers months ago, when I had the world's most uninteresting burrito there.
I haven't had a position in CMG for a long time, but I'm proud of bringing this to the attention of my readers months ago, when I had the world's most uninteresting burrito there.
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Likewise, I closed my COH puts a while back, but this issue still plummets. The words "Phil" and "moat" are germane here. Don't even ask.
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Don't you think JPM is due for a bounce here? The poor investment banks!
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Speaking of which, LEH was down nearly 20% at one point today.
Perhaps the strongest evidence I can offer for a medium-term bottom is the SPY. Notice how, in mid-January and mid-March, the volume on the SPY surged? We're seeing that again.
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I'll close with a music video. I think I was one of 7 people in the world that saw the movie Pennies from Heaven, which was from 1981 or so. I had a childhood infatuation with Bernadette Peters, plus I love old radio tunes. I was reminded of the song since our economy is heading into the dumps, kind of like the Depression! See ya tomorrow.
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七月 10, 2008 - 12:03 上午Freude Schoener GoetterfunkenI have two persistent problems in my trading. One is my innate bearish nature. I'm not sure I'll ever be able to fix that. The second is an inability to accept just how far a market can travel. Strangely, this isn't confined to underestimating how high a given stock might go; it also goes the other direction. Even though I've been having a great time in this bear market, I frequently think that there is simply no way a particular stock can go any longer, and lo and behold, it keeps plunging. So, uber-bear that I might be, I don't give the potential for a security to get wiped out enough credit.
Over the past seven trading sessions, the markets have been struggling to make a bottom. The news media have been, on a daily basis, saying that This Is It, but each day It doesn't happen. We just keep grinding away in a trading range. Any meaningful pop lasts only a few hours, or a day at most.
This morning (and I'm referring to Wednesday morning, even though I'm typing this nearly at midnight), I entered the market with a large put position on the Russell 2000, and I was terribly nervous about it. The market was a little bit weak, and I sold out of the position (which had a net positive change for the day, but a net loss for the position), and I felt relieved. I was astonished to see the market continue to be weak, in spite of a mountain of good reasons for at least a short-term bounce, so I re-entered the put position, which was extremely profitable by day's end. As you can see in the DIA chart below, Wednesday created a substantial bearish engulfing pattern, but given the "grind it out" state of the past seven sessions, I wouldn't give it as much creedence as I would had it occured at a market's peak.
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Looking at the $INDU's retracements, it seems that the next target (assuming yet more weakness) would be about 10,700. That seems like a really low number, but it's only about 400 points away. We've already fallen 3,000 points since last October's peak.
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A lot of us here were, until recently, very frustrated with our energy shorts. Not any longer. My agriculture and energy shorts are doing dynamite, and even if the general equity market does turn higher, I'm holding on to those positions. Look at the marvelous breakout of DUG, with beautifully behavior on the trendline.
A lot of us here were, until recently, very frustrated with our energy shorts. Not any longer. My agriculture and energy shorts are doing dynamite, and even if the general equity market does turn higher, I'm holding on to those positions. Look at the marvelous breakout of DUG, with beautifully behavior on the trendline.
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People keep talking about a lack of volatility. They're talking about the $VIX, which certainly isn't at panic levels. But for the more basic definition of volatility, we've had it in spades. Just look at the movement of the Russell 2000 over the past six weeks.
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The one remaining bull market is the $CRX, and I am counting on this one to fail. This will be the Last Man Standing.
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The S&P is below its retracement, but, just as it did in late May and early June, it may simply be screwing around outside the bounds of its normal trading zone without defining a new range. I've tinted the areas to show you what I mean.
The S&P is below its retracement, but, just as it did in late May and early June, it may simply be screwing around outside the bounds of its normal trading zone without defining a new range. I've tinted the areas to show you what I mean.
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The SPY, on the other hand, is still neatly within the retracements.
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Even though BX has already fallen a lot, I'm thinking of adding this short position to my portfolio. Man, oh man. I won't even start talking about these clowns.
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Another cool chart I tripped across tonight is PLCE.
Another cool chart I tripped across tonight is PLCE.
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I sold my CME puts a week ago for terrific profits, but that was hasty. This thing just keeps fallen, having lost over half its value over the course of 2008. Breathtaking!
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I mentioned all the potential profits I think are stored in my energy shorts. This is the kind of chart I am talking about.
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.........and this one......
I sold my CME puts a week ago for terrific profits, but that was hasty. This thing just keeps fallen, having lost over half its value over the course of 2008. Breathtaking!
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I mentioned all the potential profits I think are stored in my energy shorts. This is the kind of chart I am talking about.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1360&state=present&height=600&width=600
.........and this one......
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CSX has shaped up very nicely here.
CSX has shaped up very nicely here.
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Oh, and then there's my favorite, ICE. I just love this position. Love it to pieces.
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I bought a single put on $NDX today (fairly deep in the money). Continued weakness could shave another 100 points off here.
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It's officially Thursday now (wee hours of the morning), so I'm off to bed. Farewell!
Posted: 12:03 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 12, 2008 - 09:18 上午Keep It ComingI bought puts yesterday when the market was up 320. It closed up 416.
I bought more this morning when the market was up 50. It then proceeded to go up over 100.
So I'm certainly not getting these things are the cheapest price possible, and they are in the red so far. But I'm honestly totally cool with that. I am basing these purchases on the notion that this is a big bear market rally and is simply another profit opportunity.
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Posted: 09:18 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 03, 2009 - 11:31 上午The Energy Bull ReturnsOK, I'm back into energy in a big way. I have bought very large positions in USO and OIH. I managed to get USO at a better price than I sold it at this morning.
I think I am going to start relying on large oil and gold trades as my principal money maker since the /ES seems to be just smashed to pieces.
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Posted: 11:31 上午 | 97 insightful comments | Permalink
三月 02, 2009 - 10:43 上午Bullish on USOI am acquiring extremely large long positions on USO. Stop price: 24.25
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Posted: 10:43 上午 | 61 insightful comments | Permalink
一月 28, 2009 - 01:09 下午CommoditiesTo say my bearishness has not been serving me well lately is a huge understatement. I missed a nearly 80 point upward move in the S&P over the course of just a few days, and even my SRS trade - - entered just 15 minutes before today's close - - got blown out in no time!
I've moved into three very similar-looking commodity charts. I am toning down my bearishness (since I'm kind of fond of making profits) and am moving into these charts since they seem to have the best likelihood of a move upward.
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Posted: 01:09 下午 | 125 insightful comments | Permalink
一月 12, 2009 - 11:42 上午USO and UNGI have bought a pretty big position in both UNG and USO with the following stops UNG 23.27
USO 28.91
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Posted: 11:42 上午 | 27 insightful comments | Permalink
十二月 18, 2008 - 12:48 下午Buh-Bye, DubaiIt's fitting, I suppose, that after boring the world to tears with its gaudy, garish, outlandish construction, Dubai and its breathren are living in a world where crude oil has lost 75% of its value in half a year and seems to not have found a bottom. Couldn't have happened to a nicer place.
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My DUG is doing great, as are my PM shorts. Oh,-you're absolutely right. DZZ stinks. It's up, yes, but not nearly as much as I would have thought. Yuck. What a rip-off!
Posted: 12:48 下午 | 92 insightful comments | Permalink
十一月 04, 2008 - 01:53 下午Index CheckMost indexes have pushed up to their respective Fibonacci retracements. This doesn't mean they wont' muscle their way higher to the next level up; it's just an important resistance level to watch.
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The NASDAQ is strong enough to actually be above its retracement, so there may be more upside here. I have been participating in the market's strength via my longs, which are very energy- and metals- and ag-oriented (a good example is SSRI, which is up 75% from my purchase a few days ago), but I haven't enjoyed any gains from general index strength. On the contrary, I bought some "beginning" positions in QID and SDS today.
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I'll do a write-up later tonight, but only after I've had a chance to read the bazillion comments that I've missed so far.
Posted: 01:53 下午 | 59 insightful comments | Permalink