五月 19, 2008 - 03:03 下午Nerve-WrackingEverything is relative.
When you get used to the market soaring day after day, and yet again the market blasts 140 points higher, you will gladly take a 40 point gain on the Dow. Not to mention a drop in the Russell 2000 and NASDAQ.
Things were really miserable earlier today. The Russell was looking dangerously in blast-off mode, and everything under the sun was soaring higher. And then suddenly the rug got pulled out from underneath the bulls' stinking, corrupt hooves.
You may be puzzling as to why this happened, but now I can finally reveal it. There was an International Symposium on the Cooperation Between Government and Markets held in St. Petersburg.Everyone was there - - Bernanke, Stephen Schwarzman, Paulson, Abby Joseph Cohen, Jim Cramer - - everybody. This gathering was a shameless formalization of the relationship between the major governments of the world and the principals of the investment banks. This conspiracy excited the markets higher early in the day.
What they didn't realize was there was a certain blogger who had infiltrated the group using false credentials. You can see the mayhem that erupted about 30 seconds into this video. I barely made it out of there with my life.
To add to the confusion, there were "riots", according to Jeff Kohler, erupting over at his blog. For some reason the comments section was getting pretty rowdy with comments comparing Slope with Addict. Jeff had to quell the noise, so he offered this.
All right, on to the markets. First, China. The old saying about "what everyone knows isn't worth knowing". I tend to think this is the case with China. Yeah, yeah, the China century. I've heard it. I get it. We're the new Britain, they're the new United States. I don't think so. And God help their environment and all the health disaster that's brewing there.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=811&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=811&state=present&height=600&width=600
This chart still intrigues me. If we break 170 hard, this could get exciting again.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=812&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=812&state=present&height=600&width=600
Transports made a new never-before-seen-in-history high today, but gave up virtually all of it. Check out the shooting star on this baby.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=814&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=814&state=present&height=600&width=600
Pitifully, I remember the days when I was short OIH and had 192 as my stop loss. Here we are at nearly $220. It's getting awfully close to that Fib fan, don't you think?
All right, on to the markets. First, China. The old saying about "what everyone knows isn't worth knowing". I tend to think this is the case with China. Yeah, yeah, the China century. I've heard it. I get it. We're the new Britain, they're the new United States. I don't think so. And God help their environment and all the health disaster that's brewing there.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=811&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=811&state=present&height=600&width=600
This chart still intrigues me. If we break 170 hard, this could get exciting again.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=812&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=812&state=present&height=600&width=600
Transports made a new never-before-seen-in-history high today, but gave up virtually all of it. Check out the shooting star on this baby.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=814&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=814&state=present&height=600&width=600
Pitifully, I remember the days when I was short OIH and had 192 as my stop loss. Here we are at nearly $220. It's getting awfully close to that Fib fan, don't you think?
Pitifully, I remember the days when I was short OIH and had 192 as my stop loss. Here we are at nearly $220. It's getting awfully close to that Fib fan, don't you think?
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=816&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=816&state=present&height=600&width=600
Speaking of shooting stars, here's another beaut - - the S&P 500. Don't get me wrong; the markets aren't acting bearish. But this bull is sure looking weary.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=817&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=817&state=present&height=600&width=600
I'm the unfortunate holding of DUG right now, and it's been pathetic. We're scraping the bottom of that sloping support line, as you can see. And the explosion in volume over the past few months is amazing.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=818&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=818&state=present&height=600&width=600
Now on to a few equity shorts. ABT is pushing up against a major broken trendline.
Now on to a few equity shorts. ABT is pushing up against a major broken trendline.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=819&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=819&state=present&height=600&width=600
Albemarle (I have no idea what they do, and couldn't care less.......) is in a similar pattern.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=820&state=present&height=600&width=600
Bottom-fishing is dangerous, but there are a handful of stocks that look intriguing for a bullish play. IFC is one of them.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=821&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=821&state=present&height=600&width=600
Akamai (AKAM) is really interesting, its price approaching two important levels of resistance.
Akamai (AKAM) is really interesting, its price approaching two important levels of resistance.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=822&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=822&state=present&height=600&width=600
And our buddy AAPL, whose puts made some people some green today (and I got a few thank-yous on that; you're certainly welcome).
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=823&state=present&height=600&width=600
CELG could be in the early throes of a nice drop, with a clean stop around $66.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=824&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=824&state=present&height=600&width=600
I've got puts on Coach (COH), which also has a clean stop around $38.
I've got puts on Coach (COH), which also has a clean stop around $38.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=825&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=825&state=present&height=600&width=600
Solar stocks aren't looking too great these days, and my puts had a nice little uptick today on First Solar.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=826&state=present&height=600&width=600
I'm not sure what's in store for investment banks, but I've put my neck out on puts for one of them - - Morgan Stanley. This isn't a bad head and shoulders pattern.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=827&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=827&state=present&height=600&width=600
Google was relatively weak all day, even when the market was very strong. I've got a stop on this one at $592.
Google was relatively weak all day, even when the market was very strong. I've got a stop on this one at $592.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=828&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=828&state=present&height=600&width=600
Finally, Lindsay, which I don't think I've ever mentioned before. I shorted this one earlier today.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=829&state=present&height=600&width=600
Suffice it to say I ended the day more cheerful than I was a few hours before. I hope to hell things start to turn around. Otherwise, I'm going to have to make more flying contraptions.
Posted: 03:03 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
And yet oil-related stocks, which to date have wallowed around in bathtubs full of gold coins during this entire melt-up, didn't have the power to participate anymore.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=736&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=736&state=present&height=600&width=600
So..........perversely.......my position in the double-inverse oil & gas fund actually had a great day!
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=737&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=737&state=present&height=600&width=600
My point is that my abundance of oil and commodity related items is well-positioned to benefit from this divergence. Because if they fall on a strong day for crude, can you imagine the damage waiting for them when crude falls? (And, yes, it will fall; nothing goes up forever).
Likewise, my $XAU position did pretty well. The formation for 2008 is very similar to the smaller one spanning October-December 2007 (which didn't amount to anything), but a break from this pattern downward would easily send the $XAU to the mid-$150s.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=741&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=741&state=present&height=600&width=600
And - tip of the hat to Jana - China is finally starting to get kicked around again. It was the best down day in seven weeks. A monster bearish engulfing pattern. A break below $212 (far away, I confess) would be highly destructive to this index.
And - tip of the hat to Jana - China is finally starting to get kicked around again. It was the best down day in seven weeks. A monster bearish engulfing pattern. A break below $212 (far away, I confess) would be highly destructive to this index.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=738&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=738&state=present&height=600&width=600
I've been contending recently the $XBD had peaked out. For now, that seems to be the case. Just look at that sweet set of descending scallops.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=739&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=739&state=present&height=600&width=600
And - perhaps my favorite pattern of all - the $MSH is obediently staying beneath that not-quite horizontal line you see below. A fully materialized head and shoulders breakdown would send this at least a hundred points lower.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=740&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=740&state=present&height=600&width=600
I entered a put position on the S&P relatively early today, and it's nicely in the green. Perhaps 1423 is as high as this retracement is capable of carrying the market. I sure hope so.
I entered a put position on the S&P relatively early today, and it's nicely in the green. Perhaps 1423 is as high as this retracement is capable of carrying the market. I sure hope so.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=742&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=742&state=present&height=600&width=600
Due to (of course) a lack of time, I can only offer the following charts without any commentary. I'll let the lines do the talking for me. These are some favorite shorts now.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=743&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=743&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=744&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=745&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=746&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=747&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=748&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=749&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=750&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=750&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=751&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=751&state=present&height=600&width=600
Good night, and may the rest of the week pan out even halfway as well as today!
Posted: 05:38 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
五月 06, 2008 - 09:17 上午A Few Current Favoriteshttp://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=723
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=724
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=725
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=726
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=727
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=728
Posted: 09:17 上午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
四月 17, 2008 - 01:06 下午GOOG Blow-OutWell, the long-awaited GOOG earnings just came out, and I've got to believe from the bid/ask that it was a blow-out quarter (or at least a relief). The after-hours quotes are showing a gain of over $50 per share in price, which is over 11%. Amazing!
As always, I keep my positions on any given equity very small. My GOOG put position is going to get trounced, but c'est la vie. More generally, this is a (sigh) fairly bullish sign, because everyone looks to GOOG as a bellwether.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=538
Posted: 01:06 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
三月 20, 2008 - 04:12 下午
三月 20, 2008 - 04:12 下午Calls of the WildWhat a week. I'm ready for a break. So this is going to be short.
I know some will consider me a traitor to the cause, but I assure you, my bullish outfit is (a) temporary and (b) not complete. I've still got a variety of puts, mostly in oil-related items. But I've accumulated a lot of calls today, since I think we could be nice for a nice-sized bounce.
I will note at this point I have no index positions of any kind, either bullish or bearish. I am too uncertain about the near-term direction of indexes to take any position.
However, as a change of pace, here are the items on which I bought calls today.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=317&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=320&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=321&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=322&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=324&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=327&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=328&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=329&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=329&state=present&height=600&width=600
Happy Easter, everyone..............I imagine I'll be quiet until Monday. Bye!
Posted: 04:12 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
三月 03, 2008 - 11:12 上午Update on the Four HorsemanThe short answer: basically all down 40%. Hundreds of billions of dollars of equity already gone. In my opinion, lots more to come (or go, more accurately...........)
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=230&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=229&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=231&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=232&height=600&width=600
Posted: 11:12 上午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink