九月 30, 2008 - 03:03 下午Ample Parking Day or NightMy "two hours of sleep a night" bit is getting to me, so this won't be an especially long post. Let me just hit the highlights.
First, I'm intrigued by the newfound strength in the $IRX. It is very near the top of its range since the 9/15 gap, which suggests a (relative) sense of calm and ease is returning. Now, with a VIX nearly at 40 I realize that people aren't kicking back in their lounge chairs. But, let's face it, the Dow shooting up nearly 500 points probably calmed a lot of very nervous bulls out there, and as I've said repeatedly, a big surge is precisely what we bears need to see.
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I'm not optimistic that we're going to get another turkey shoot where the VIX is at 18 and everyone thinks a full-blown bull market is back. But give me another day that's similar to today, and it'll be time to load the rifles again.
I've see a lot of smart folks pushing for a bull market in gold. I don't get it. Gold looks really sick to me. I have a reasonable number of bearish positions in gold, although I did close out my bearish silver positions today in order to wait for a hopefully better entry price.
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As for oil, this is a bit of a tough one. The topping pattern is pretty huge, but the prospect of a large, very time-consuming right shoulder on this pattern is very real. It could be months before we see a real collapse. So I trimmed way back on my energy-related shorts, taking profits and stocking up on cash for our next golden opportunity. (Those following me onwill recall that on the 19th I declared it the "selling opportunity of the year." Boy, was I right about that!) Anyway, if the $OIX got back to, say, 750-775, that would be pretty intriguing.
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Looking at the equity markets, I'd say they easily covered at least half the ground they need to cover in order to create some great bearish opportunities. I actually got into a respectably-sized SPX put position near the end of today, although I might be early on that. I was dead spot-on getting QQQQ calls last night (and, thank God, getting out of my index puts yesterday), although, as is so often the case with my bullish positions, I sold them way too soon.
Looking at the equity markets, I'd say they easily covered at least half the ground they need to cover in order to create some great bearish opportunities. I actually got into a respectably-sized SPX put position near the end of today, although I might be early on that. I was dead spot-on getting QQQQ calls last night (and, thank God, getting out of my index puts yesterday), although, as is so often the case with my bullish positions, I sold them way too soon.
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I likewise did a lot of trimming in my commodity positions. The $CRX is hugely broken, but there could be a substantial retracement at these levels.
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The view from the $XAU is a head-scratcher. $130 seems to be an important support level. I think it's possible we just noodle around this area for a while. There's a pretty big range from 130 to 155, and as you can see for 2006 and most of 2007, XAU just boinged back and forth within that range.
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I've tinted in green the progress QQQQ made today back to its retracement line. Like I said, we're a little more than halfway there is just one trading session. I think what would goose us up to the victory line would be the passage of the government failout.
I've tinted in green the progress QQQQ made today back to its retracement line. Like I said, we're a little more than halfway there is just one trading session. I think what would goose us up to the victory line would be the passage of the government failout.
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As for the $SPX, it could be argued that we've already achieved the retracement. That bold Fibonacci line is a major one. If there's more strength to be had, I would think 1205 would be about the next stopping point.
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Finally, just for fun, here's an update from the steps of the Capital building.
Posted: 03:03 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
九月 26, 2008 - 04:14 下午Now We WaitUntil Sunday evening, there isn't much left to say. If a bailout plan is hammered out and agreed upon, I suppose markets will rally - - maybe even rally big. If there is stalemate, I suppose markets will be soft.
The chart of the DIA sort of says it all: (1) a decent bullish engulfing pattern today, pushing the Dow up triple digits after opening down triple digits; (2) and yet absolutely anemic volume, day after day, since September 18th's madness.
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This was a good week for me; my portfolio hit a new peak at today's close. I am vulnerable, absolutely, to some kind of bullish shock on Monday (I'm saying this mainly for the benefit of those bulls that grit their teeth when they've been reading about my profits lately; some have actually complained via email). But you want to know the funny part? If a bailout is announced, I will view it at a selling opportunity, and if a bailout stumbles, I will view it as a buying opportunity. How's that for being a contrarian?
In any case, there's just no visibility right now with all the political hijinx. I'm going to enjoy the debates tonight and will be watching what happens in D.C. with great interest this weekend. I'll probably do a post Sunday night. See you then.
Posted: 04:14 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
九月 16, 2008 - 04:32 下午A Chartist First; A Bear, SecondWhat's it going to be like when the markets move up or down just a little each day? What are we going to do when the biggest financial event in a quarter is a company bumping up its dividend a little? What will it feel like when a 100 point move on the Dow is pretty big news? We have gone through the looking glass, folks, and entered a totally new world. Someday it will get back to normal.
The reason for the title of tonight's post is that some people were actually ticked off (or "fading" me) since I had "turned bull." (To be clear, I was going long calls on specific sectors). I received a few emails from people, as if I had turned my back on "the cause." I am not here as a representative of the Financial Al Qaida; I don't pray for the destruction of the United States and its assets. I simply want to objectively take advantage of the insights I gain from charts. I may seem like a raving bear sometimes based on the juxtaposition between (a) what I see and (b) what the talking heads are saying; but reality and the charts have gotten a lot closer together lately, so I'm a pretty mellow fellow.
Suffice it to say that it is my life's goal to shake my permabear tendencies and be as dispassionate as possible. My "bullish calls" today are a symptom of my attempt at personal transformation.
The volume on AIG - - just one stock - - was nearly 1.2 billion shares today. It had a multi-hundred percent intraday range. And tonight, after hours, it is getting slammed yet again. I imagine this will be the big story on Wednesday, one way or another.
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Now, a lot of folks have been needling me about a "pledge" to do just one post a day; you misunderstand - - I meant the final three days of this week. I'm going to be very tied up with "normal" work. What I wouldn't give to have three quiet days on the market! But that's not going to happen. What I'll probably do is just write a one-sentence post so that people don't lose their minds posting comments; in other words, I don't want people to have to load 15 charts every time they post a comment; and, at the end of the day, I'll do a regular post (OK, I guess that's two per day).
Looking back, I think I'd give myself a solid "B+" for my performance today. I dumped a huge number of puts early in the day, most of them at very good prices (although I painfully noticed that CEG, on which I owned puts a few days ago, was plunging like crazy!) I was kind of ham-handed with a few positions, notably RUT and OIH. But on the whole it was a good, profitable day, and I can't fault myself too much given the insanity of (a) the general craziness we're going through (b) Fed day, which is always nuts. The $VIX, not surprisingly, poked into "maybe this is the bottom for now" territory, as you can see below. This is only the 4th such instance pushing above 33 in at least the past five years.
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As for what's next, it's tough to say; as of now (just a few hours after the Tuesday close), the GLOBEX is down mildly hard. As you can see from the DIA below, we bottomed nicely at mid-July levels and covered the entire Fibonacci range today, closing near the highs on huge volume.
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The SPY, also sporting gigantic volume, opened down very hard and created a sizable bullish engulfing pattern (although let's remember last week's similar pattern didn't mean squat).
The SPY, also sporting gigantic volume, opened down very hard and created a sizable bullish engulfing pattern (although let's remember last week's similar pattern didn't mean squat).
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And then there's the IWM. It's pretty easy to see in all three of these ETFs how, even if they open stronger tomorrow, they might bump their heads pretty hard at the respecting overhanging Fib levels.
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I should note for the record that I have no index options at all right now. I did buy some NDX calls, and I closed those for a few thousand bucks profit (I couldn't stomach the idea of a big call position overnight). I did go long a wide variety of issues, almost all energy- or gold-based, as I described in the prior post.
Looking at the S&P 500 daily chart, it's pretty easy to make a case for today's low being the intermediate low for a while. Just look at January (and, later, March) of this year; it hit that Fib level and spent months climbing higher. I think the culture, if you will, of the market has changed enough to shorten the countertrend. But I have trouble picturing the S&P just slipping right past 1170 and heading down to the next level of 1075. If we did "crash", however, that's where I'd say it was going to fall.
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Another reason for my slight case of bullishness is the NASDAQ and, more specifically, the $MSH. The pattern below is hardly a marvelous long-term hold, but it certainly looks like a decent bounce point; failing Tuesday's lows, however, would really crush this market. The new "oh sh*t!" point in many cases are the lows from Tuesday morning.
Another reason for my slight case of bullishness is the NASDAQ and, more specifically, the $MSH. The pattern below is hardly a marvelous long-term hold, but it certainly looks like a decent bounce point; failing Tuesday's lows, however, would really crush this market. The new "oh sh*t!" point in many cases are the lows from Tuesday morning.
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Here we see crude oil (on a continuous basis) spanning back ten years. You can see how it "overshot" its trend very significantly. Likewise, it has "undershot" the trend here. I think that long-term crude oil is going to be bearish, but in the short-term I think it could make a push back to the very low triple digits.
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I will close by saying this - - I'm tired! This "bear market" stuff is really exhausting. The thing which stinks about the slope of hope (not the blog, but the market) is how it requires such riveted attention. I could have lost a ton of money today if I simply ignored the market. The "wall of worry" (a climbing market) is great because it's plodding, deliberate, and non-volatile. So that's probably the main reason I would love to see us enter a bounce for a little bit; I could really use a break from all this! Something tells me the market doesn't care a whole lot about how rested I feel, though. We need to take it as it comes.....
Posted: 04:32 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
九月 11, 2008 - 04:16 下午Brutal!For a bear, nothing feels better than a day that starts off strong but gets weaker through the entire day, only to completely collapse at the end. Tuesday was a lot like that.
Today was the total opposite. All through the night, the GLOBEX had been very negative, and after the employment figures came out, the S&P was down something like 20 points. The market opened down hard, and it spent most of the day fighting its way higher. Near the end, the climb become frantic, and the Dow wound up over 300 points higher than it had opened. Yuck!
I felt extra bad because I had carefully looked at the OIH and decided it looked pretty bullish. I bought a bunch of it early on, but I sold those calls later in the day for a good profit, declaring that I had lost faith in the longer-term prospects (I had targeted 170 at a level I thought the OIH could reach in the coming days/weeks). Anyway, the OIH also lurched higher, and frankly now it looks more bullish than ever! So it was doubly disappointing.
It also isn't lost on me that the SLIX indicator (that is, the traffic on this blog) spiked dramatically on Monday, and this is often a sign of a major reversal. Shame on me to ignore SLIX, which is something you'd figure I'd be pretty close to respecting! If tomorrow is going to be a big "up" day, I'll be kicking myself even more for not simply going totally into cash on Tuesday, which would be the SLIX-appropriate thing to do.
In spite of Lehman Brothers being at death's door, the $XBD looks like it may have bottomed on July 15th and might be ready to head higher; look at the similar patterns I've tinted below (added to which we didn't come anywhere near the prior low).
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The candlestick pattern on the ETFs is horrifying. Look at the gargantuan bullish engulfing pattern on the DIA.
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The same is try of the IWM (and so many others). This is particularly exasperating since the IWM (and SPY) broke beneath the lows set on September 5th. Indeed, early this morning, it seemed like we would have another sensational multi-hundred-point down day on the Dow.
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The extremely oversold NASDAQ is sporting the same bullish engulfing patterns. I absolutely don't think today broke the bear's back, but a sizeable rally could be in the cards before we resume the downtrend. This is what I'm really concerned about.
The extremely oversold NASDAQ is sporting the same bullish engulfing patterns. I absolutely don't think today broke the bear's back, but a sizeable rally could be in the cards before we resume the downtrend. This is what I'm really concerned about.
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A slightly less scary chart is the minute bar for the Russell 2000, which plainly shows that resistance (represented by the horizontal Retracement line) is still intact.
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All this week, I've been pointing out the bullish potential of gold and energy. The OIH finally caught a bit of fire today, and gold seems to have firmed up on its fan line. I have a handful of bullish positions in gold, and a rally here could push the $XAU back to the mid 130s.
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The graph on OIH looks as compelling as it did back in January 2008. I'm angry with myself for not letting the profits on my OIH calls run. This could be a very meaningful move higher.
The graph on OIH looks as compelling as it did back in January 2008. I'm angry with myself for not letting the profits on my OIH calls run. This could be a very meaningful move higher.
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It's pretty obvious I'm not feeling as jolly as I was in recent days! It was a rough day overall, including the terrible technical difficulties this morning. I can only hope tomorrow is a better day all around.
Posted: 04:16 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
九月 10, 2008 - 04:43 下午Disappointment is Job One!Now things are starting to get interesting! A day like Tuesday was almost too easy; not that I'm begging for a challenge or anything. It's been challenging enough being bearish (until recently). But the economic reports that come out Thursday and Friday should help give the market an impetus one way or another.
The reason for the subject of this entry is that bear markets feed off of disappointment. The bulls want a savior - - a white knight - - and what we bears want is for the bulls to embrace that white knight and realize (quickly) that it doesn't make any difference. The latest example (and it's a huge one) was the Monday bailout. The thrill from the largest government intervention in human history last all of one - count 'em, one - trading day. (One a vast smaller scale, the thrill of the LEH strategy, which caused a flood of exciting buying this morning, fizzled away into nothing; after-hours, LEH is plunging to prices now seen since 1998).
I'm really focused on the big ETFs right now, since they yield the best clues as to future direction. Their obedience to the Fibonacci retracements has been amazing. Look at the low on the DIA today, perfectly touching the short-term retracement. From a candlestick viewpoint, this indicates real indecision (but we all knew that already!)
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The same can be said of the SPY; the market is struggling with what to do next. Today's lows got very near the lows witnessed last week (without breaking beneath).
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The IWM was especially interesting, since it is trading below a major and important retracement level; the candlestick of today closely resembles that of last Friday. The tug of war between bulls and bears is getting fierce.
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Looking at a much longer time frame, you can see why I am so bearish. There is still ample room to fall, even if major support is not broken. On the Russell 2000 alone, there are nearly 200 points between current levels and major support.
Looking at a much longer time frame, you can see why I am so bearish. There is still ample room to fall, even if major support is not broken. On the Russell 2000 alone, there are nearly 200 points between current levels and major support.
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Not to make the $UTIL an every day chart, but here it is again in all its glory. I am going to use this as an important tool in deciding when the bear market is finished (at least medium-term).
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For goodness sake, the EUR/USD is still due for a bounce. If it firms up, I'm looking for it to head back to that tinted zone, around 1.43; in turn, oil and gold should rise.
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I did buy ten different calls today, all energy- and gold-related. My view is that the $XAU (which finallly moved up today!) will head back to the mid- to high-130s before plunging anew.
I did buy ten different calls today, all energy- and gold-related. My view is that the $XAU (which finallly moved up today!) will head back to the mid- to high-130s before plunging anew.
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Having said that, there are a number of issues which seem to have experienced fundamental breakdowns and, in spite of today's strength, seem to simply be setting up for another fall (already). Here are a couple of examples.
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Remember when I used to do just five posts in an entire week? This blog has become a bit out of control, and I'm doing more like 40 a week now! Yowie, I really need to get my life back.
Posted: 04:43 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
九月 08, 2008 - 09:59 上午Get Out of the Triple DigitsWell, it's been all well and good to fade and pop this morning. But now what? The Dow got down to "only" up 100 points. Will that be the low of the day? If so, things aren't as jumping-up-and-down bearish as I'd like to see. If we can manage to get out of this triple digit rise territory, I'll breath easier.
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Posted: 09:59 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
九月 08, 2008 - 04:56 上午Heed These LinesThese are short-term Fibonacci retracements on IWM, SPY, and DIA. Pay attention to these levels. One cool feature of the Original/Present chart tab is that you can see where current prices are vis a vis these lines once the market opens by clicking on the Present tab for any given chart.
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Posted: 04:56 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
九月 02, 2008 - 03:31 下午Utter Rally FailureToday went very well. I was somewhat concerned before the market opened, because the buying public seems to have swallowed the notion "oil down=equities up" hook, line, and sinker. The Dow blasted higher, soaring over 200 points as oil and gold got pummeled.
It didn't take me long to realize I was going to be OK. About an hour into the trading day, the Dow was still up 170 points, but my portfolio was up handsomely. It is a very, very good sign for a bear to have a lot of green in the portfolio in the face of 170 points up on the Dow. So, naturally, when the Dow actually lost every single point of its gain and went into the red. my portfolio went from green to mega-green. It was an awesome day.
I've been talking about the Euro's fall for weeks now. Maybe we're in for a pause at around the 1.44 level.
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The broken trendline, first pierced in mid-August, is proving to be critically important. As good as today was, things are going to get sensational until we can break this series of higher lows.
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The "watched pot" of $UTIL isn't boiling yet, but it's getting there. I love this chart!
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Check out the honkin' big bearish engulfing pattern on the $COMPQ. It is noteworthy that there is no similar series of higher lows here - - - today marked the lowest price in weeks.
Check out the honkin' big bearish engulfing pattern on the $COMPQ. It is noteworthy that there is no similar series of higher lows here - - - today marked the lowest price in weeks.
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As for how much farther gold will keep falling, that's hard for me to say; looking at $XAU, it was almost too easy calling for a plunge when it was at $155 last week. Judging by these lines, another $10 down looks very likely.
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OIH is somewhat easier to judge. I am going to hold on to these puts until about the $165 level.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1882&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1882&state=present&height=600&width=600
I offer the following charts without additional commentary; they represent to me my favorites among my holdings right now.
I offer the following charts without additional commentary; they represent to me my favorites among my holdings right now.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1884&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1884&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1885&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1885&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1886&state=original&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1887&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1887&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1888&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1888&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1889&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1889&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1890&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1890&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1891&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1891&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1892&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1892&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present