On Tuesday I pointed out the broadening top in VMI. The next day, this stock really had the air taken out of it.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1174&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1174&state=present&height=600&width=600
Here's a fine example of a change in fortune. Take a look at ANR below; this graph ends at the beginning of 2007, and you can see what a dog this stock was. Now click on the "Present" tab. Incredibly, isn't it? About a 900% rise in less than 18 months. When will the wind be taken out of ANR's sails? I'm weary of guessing.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1175&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1175&state=present&height=600&width=600
Here's another nice example.........AIG. In the graph below you can see AIG broken a trendline (and it's a huge one, spanning back to when Richard Nixon was in office). The prices struggled back to the trendline, but the damage was done. Now click on the "Present" tab to see what's happened since then.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1177&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1177&state=present&height=600&width=600
OK, I'm on a roll here; let's do another fun example. BORL, shown below, was clearly a fantastic winning stock. The bulls loved it, and wish good reason. You can see an "ANR-like" climb, as this company was seriously considered a threat to Microsoft's dominance in the microcomputer software field. Now click on "Present". How the mighty have fallen, eh? It's pretty sad.
OK, I'm on a roll here; let's do another fun example. BORL, shown below, was clearly a fantastic winning stock. The bulls loved it, and wish good reason. You can see an "ANR-like" climb, as this company was seriously considered a threat to Microsoft's dominance in the microcomputer software field. Now click on "Present". How the mighty have fallen, eh? It's pretty sad.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1178&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1178&state=present&height=600&width=600
I had taken profits on AZO a little while ago, and I'm sorry that I did. The (crude) diamond pattern in this stock seems to be fulfilling, and the price breaks beneath support.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1180&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1180&state=present&height=600&width=600
One stock that was frustrating people with its slow movement was COF. This seems to be changing. COF had been, for about 7 months, bouncing between about $57 (on the high side) and a series of "higher lows" on the low side. But this trendline, shown below, was broken last month, and the damage is clearly done. Bears are finally getting their day on COF.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1181&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1181&state=present&height=600&width=600
In May, I pointed out what looked like a nice little H&S pattern on LNN. This pattern was never really completed, though, and there's little more dangerous than a failed pattern, so I got out at once. The stock pushed higher. On Tuesday I was toying with the idea of shorting it, but shorting based on the conjecture of a double top is often dangerous, because there's very little to keep a stock from rendering the double top moot by having simply one more good day. In any event, a short here would have played out nicely, as the stock got zapped hard. Ah, well. This is something my charts wouldn't have been very good at predicting.
In May, I pointed out what looked like a nice little H&S pattern on LNN. This pattern was never really completed, though, and there's little more dangerous than a failed pattern, so I got out at once. The stock pushed higher. On Tuesday I was toying with the idea of shorting it, but shorting based on the conjecture of a double top is often dangerous, because there's very little to keep a stock from rendering the double top moot by having simply one more good day. In any event, a short here would have played out nicely, as the stock got zapped hard. Ah, well. This is something my charts wouldn't have been very good at predicting.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1182&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1182&state=present&height=600&width=600
I will be out and about all day long, and I'll do a post tonight. I'm sorry for anyone that waited for this post last night. Have a good trading day!
Posted: 05:08 上午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
六月 06, 2008 - 05:26 下午WallopToday was a surprise to everyone, me included. Yesterday I was wringing my hands that maybe the economy wasn't so bad after all. Maybe there wasn't a recession. Maybe there was just a slowdown in growth that was going to be shaken off and replaced with unprecedented movement higher. I was getting jittery.
This morning's shocking jobs report set my mind at ease. The largest jump in unemployment in 33 years. The permabulls on CNBC were desperately trying to spin the news, but to no avail - - stock indexes plunged across the board. The only green on the screen was gold, which shot higher due to the U.S. dollar taking another drubbing.
My favorite aspect of the day was that in spite of crude oil's ungodly rise today - - not just a record new high, but a record one-day movement upward - - oil stocks fell! The OIH was down. Commodity stocks were down. Solar was down. It was beautiful! If these stocks can't go up on a day that oil spikes over $10 a barrel, don't you think the bloom is off the rose?
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1048&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1048&state=present&height=600&width=600
Here is an intraday minute bar graph of the S&P 500. Pretty nice looking head and shoulder there, isn't it? If I've drawn this correctly, it would project a target of about 1,300. The next major Fibonacci is lower than that - 1,270.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1056&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1056&state=present&height=600&width=600
The $NDX finally - finally!!! - broke its ascending channel today. Good.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1049&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1049&state=present&height=600&width=600
On a daily graph, you can see the S&P 500 potential more clearly. There's a clean 100 points between current levels and the next Fibonacci, which is where we've had two bottoms so far in 2008 (one in January, one in March). That is major, major support.
On a daily graph, you can see the S&P 500 potential more clearly. There's a clean 100 points between current levels and the next Fibonacci, which is where we've had two bottoms so far in 2008 (one in January, one in March). That is major, major support.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1050&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1050&state=present&height=600&width=600
Looking at the Dow, the next level down is about 11,500. Not that far away, when you consider it is 700 points, and today alone the Dow dropped 400.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1052&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1052&state=present&height=600&width=600
China is looking weak again. My FXI puts are doing nicely.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1051&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1051&state=present&height=600&width=600
And yesterday's price bar for the $COMPQ was just death-defying. It came within a cat's whisker of pushing past resistance, but it didn't happen. Today prices fell away swiftly from this level.
And yesterday's price bar for the $COMPQ was just death-defying. It came within a cat's whisker of pushing past resistance, but it didn't happen. Today prices fell away swiftly from this level.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1054&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1054&state=present&height=600&width=600
I've back up ten years for the graph below, just to show how battered banks are getting.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1055&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1055&state=present&height=600&width=600
Just a few equities tonight.........AutoZone (AZO) is making some good movements within its diamond pattern; a break below 119 is essential at this point for something really bearish.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1057&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1057&state=present&height=600&width=600
XEC is just one example of an energy stock which fell on a hugely bullish energy day.
XEC is just one example of an energy stock which fell on a hugely bullish energy day.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1058&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1058&state=present&height=600&width=600
Lastly, Sears is a new holding for me. I am pushing myself to short (or buy puts on) battered stocks instead of high fliers. That may sound really elementary, but for me, it's a change.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1059&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1059&state=present&height=600&width=600
Setting Thursday aside, this was a dynamite week. Monday should, of course, be fascinating. Will it be a Black Monday, or will it be a Bounce? I have no idea. I've lightened up on my index puts to some degree, but I'm still very much positioned for more downward movement. Have a good weekend, everyone.
Posted: 05:26 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
五月 23, 2008 - 03:26 下午The Bear is BackThis week was pivotal. Although I don't think it's going to be straight down from here, in my opinion, this week's action has brought an end to the bear market rally that spanned from mid-March until mid-May. Our national nightmare is over.
All the indexes got beaten up, but their patterns and projections all vary. Investment banks had a tough week, and this chart of the $XBD suggests the high made on May 2 was simply another "lower high" in a long progression downward.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=872&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=872&state=present&height=600&width=600
The NASDAQ bounced off major resistance at about 2,550 and also has cut through its 25% median line. At this point, as I mentioned in my prior post, I closed out my NDX and SPX puts for good profits. I have one index position - on the Russell 2000 - which I entered late today. But everything else is just shorts and equity puts.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=873&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=873&state=present&height=600&width=600
This channel indicates the reason I was eager to take profits on the $NDX. Of course, I keep thinking about the MLK 3-day weekend in January and what that was like. (If you don't remember, worldwide markets got creamed and not only did I have no index puts, I had an index call!) In any case, I'm taking a breather on index puts, with the exception of my $RUT position.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=874&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=874&state=present&height=600&width=600
I'm still holding on to my $XAU puts, since I think gold has topped out and is heading lower (sort of like oil...........)
I'm still holding on to my $XAU puts, since I think gold has topped out and is heading lower (sort of like oil...........)
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=875&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=875&state=present&height=600&width=600
The Russell 2000 index did a couple of important "bearish" things this week. First, the breakout from the $730 level has failed, thus negating its bullish important; second, it has dipped below both its major (blue) and minor (green) Fibonacci retracement levels.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=876&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=876&state=present&height=600&width=600
And - - I've just got to say it - - 1383 on the S&P is broken! I have been yacking about that level for ages. It finally broke today. More importantly, the close was near the day's lows. We didn't rally. We are plainly below 1383 now.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=877&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=877&state=present&height=600&width=600
Just for the hell of it, there are a handful of stocks that I'd be tempted to buy calls on (but I won't). Should we get a bounce on Tuesday, there are some battered issues which looked poised for a small pop. There's Alcoa......
Just for the hell of it, there are a handful of stocks that I'd be tempted to buy calls on (but I won't). Should we get a bounce on Tuesday, there are some battered issues which looked poised for a small pop. There's Alcoa......
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=878&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=878&state=present&height=600&width=600
.......Capital One, which is very near its supporting trendline........
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=879&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=879&state=present&height=600&width=600
.....and Genco, which has retraced back to its neckline.......
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=880&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=880&state=present&height=600&width=600
As for shorts, here are a few favorites: Autozone still appears to be in the throes of a diamond pattern.
As for shorts, here are a few favorites: Autozone still appears to be in the throes of a diamond pattern.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=881&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=881&state=present&height=600&width=600
Albermarle is right up against its broken trendline.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=882&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=882&state=present&height=600&width=600
Cerner is falling away from its major resistance at $48.75.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=883&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=883&state=present&height=600&width=600
Chattem completed a very nice head and shoulders pattern today.
Chattem completed a very nice head and shoulders pattern today.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=884&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=884&state=present&height=600&width=600
And Schlumberger is also falling away from major resistance.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=885&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=885&state=present&height=600&width=600
So - - a great week! And quite a contrast to the last few. To close today, here's an interesting new video from Don Harrold (I own puts on ISRG, so I found this especially intriguing; plus I have this quirky fondness for the truth, so Cramer gets on my nerves too).
Posted: 03:26 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
四月 07, 2008 - 02:17 下午Squeezably Soft
Posted: 02:17 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
三月 20, 2008 - 04:12 下午Calls of the WildWhat a week. I'm ready for a break. So this is going to be short.
I know some will consider me a traitor to the cause, but I assure you, my bullish outfit is (a) temporary and (b) not complete. I've still got a variety of puts, mostly in oil-related items. But I've accumulated a lot of calls today, since I think we could be nice for a nice-sized bounce.
I will note at this point I have no index positions of any kind, either bullish or bearish. I am too uncertain about the near-term direction of indexes to take any position.
However, as a change of pace, here are the items on which I bought calls today.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=317&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=318&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=320&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=320&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=321&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=321&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=322&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=322&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=323&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=323&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=324&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=324&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=325&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=325&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=326&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=326&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=327&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=327&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=328&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=328&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=329&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=329&state=present&height=600&width=600
Happy Easter, everyone..............I imagine I'll be quiet until Monday. Bye!
Posted: 04:12 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
二月 04, 2009 - 01:14 下午Financial Time MachineIn late 1992, when Bank of America's stock price was the same as it is today..........
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3520&state=present&height=600&width=600
[*]Bill Clinton had recently been elected, but George H.W. Bush was still in office;[*]There was no such thing as an Internet browser;[*]It would be five years before Steve Jobs would set foot inside Apple's buildings againIn the spring of 1968, when Citi's stock price was the same as it is today..........
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3521&state=present&height=600&width=600
[*]Lyndon Johnson was the President;[*]The most primitive handheld calculator was three years off;[*]The future author of Slope was still a chubby baby
Posted: 01:14 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink