The overinflation of OIH has definitely been let out to some degree. Looking at these fan lines, noodling around in the 200-210 range seems most likely.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1346&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1346&state=present&height=600&width=600
Here are a couple of short ideas. MTL.........
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......and STT, which seems to be retracting back toward its broken trendline.
......and STT, which seems to be retracting back toward its broken trendline.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1348&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1348&state=present&height=600&width=600
Tomorrow is also going to be busy for me. ThinkOrSwim users, please note I will be doing the "chat" session at 2 p.m. PST, 4 p.m. CST, 5 p.m. EST, so please join me there. I have no idea what I'll talk about, but I'm sure I'll think of something good by then!
Posted: 04:10 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
六月 23, 2008 - 01:51 下午I'm Keeping George in My ThoughtsI received a lot of nice emails about my weepy post regarding George Carlin's passing today. I appreciate those. Sometimes people would rather share thoughts privately than publicly, and I completely understand that.
Please be reminded that I'm traveling on Tuesday, so there will be no post until after the market's closing. I'll be nervously fidgeting in the air, not even benefiting from seeing how the market opens. I'll have a brief intra-market-day layover to check on things. With the Fed announcing on Wednesday, hopefully Tuesday will be sedate.
I'm pretty excited about the prospect of IWM breaking the blue line you see below. I am getting re-enamored with the Russell as a trading instrument.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1194&state=present&height=600&width=600
Whereas I'm sick and tired of energy. This has been a boondoggle. I think I'm just going to stay away from OIH for a good, long time. Maybe crude's oil to $500 a barrel. Who knows. I'm tired of guessing.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1195&state=present&height=600&width=600
Just a few quick ideas to chew on tonight. CSX looks interesting; it violating its resistance somewhat, but appears to be turning back down.
Just a few quick ideas to chew on tonight. CSX looks interesting; it violating its resistance somewhat, but appears to be turning back down.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1196&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1196&state=present&height=600&width=600
RIMM, which I think reports after Wednesday's close, is just a shot-in-the-dark on my part. This is one of those "well, it's got to fall one of these days" plays that either goes to $0 or works out great.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1197&state=present&height=600&width=600
I like R as a short, but I'm kind of bugged that the options are surprisingly thinly traded.
I like R as a short, but I'm kind of bugged that the options are surprisingly thinly traded.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1198&state=present&height=600&width=600
RJF is one of the financials that hasn't suffered as badly as its peers, but I think that could change soon. I'm shorting this one.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1199&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1199&state=present&height=600&width=600
Here's one that got away - AutoZone (AZO). I wrote about its diamond pattern many times, but I didn't stick with it. Shame on me.
Here's one that got away - AutoZone (AZO). I wrote about its diamond pattern many times, but I didn't stick with it. Shame on me.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1200&state=present&height=600&width=600
Bank of America is the biggie out here in California, and I'm just blown away by what kind of fall this is taking. It has lost about 50% of its value in the past year. Below is a ten-year, weekly chart. What a plunge!
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1202&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1202&state=present&height=600&width=600
I'm glad I gave up on my GENZ puts. I made a small profit on them, but I was noticing it was not behaving as it should, so I got out. When a pattern acts abnormally, that's a sign to move on. Doing so worked out in this case.
I'm glad I gave up on my GENZ puts. I made a small profit on them, but I was noticing it was not behaving as it should, so I got out. When a pattern acts abnormally, that's a sign to move on. Doing so worked out in this case.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1203&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1203&state=present&height=600&width=600
I don't have a position in EZU, but its progress on the H&S formation is pretty to watch.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1204&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1204&state=present&height=600&width=600
I'll close with this video, which was from Carlin's last HBO performance. It is simply brilliant. For those who don't know any better, the language is pretty blue in some places, but this 10 minute clip is a fantastic example of Carlin's genius as a writer, performer, and comedian.
Posted: 01:51 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 21, 2008 - 03:58 下午Zap!
Posted: 03:58 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 01, 2008 - 12:41 上午Weekly Overview
Posted: 12:41 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
二月 28, 2008 - 02:18 下午Some Sensible Price ActionBalls, balls, and Avalon.
A strange way to start a post, but it's relevant - - or at least real. I receive a lot of nice emails about my blog on a daily basis, for some reason reason, two back-to-back (or perhaps front-to-front) emails congratulated me on my cajones. I'm not sure what the term is in the zeitgeist right now; perhaps Helen Mirren's utterance (in a cultured tone, of course) during the Oscars did the trick.
As for Avalon, during my demonstration yesterday at my company's headquarters, I had a crew of about a dozen men in the room checking out the new blog platform. Things came to a halt when someone saw Avalon's avatar. "Who's that?" Oh, that's a popular commenter on my blog. "Is there a bigger picture?" Sigh. And this is in Salt Lake City, center of all things Mormon.
One thoughtful reader sent me a couple of images from Elliott Wave International which I found fascinating. It illustrates how the Fed's actions tightly correlated to the 3-month T-Bill yields. Many people will find this patently obvious, but I've never seen it expressed so well in chart form.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=218&height=600&width=600
What this indicates is that the Fed is "due" to cut a full 100 basis points off the rate (assuming nothing changes!). I'm all for it. Get those interest rate cuts done, Ben. Then you're painted into a corner.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=219&height=600&width=600
Thanks to my handy-dandy new blog platform, you can see for yourself for my positions are right now. Here are a few favorites: Baker Hughes (BHI) is a terrific head and shoulders pattern. Energy has been pretty cruel to me lately (I've got huge put positions on XLE and OIH), but this is one of my kinder energy plays.
Thanks to my handy-dandy new blog platform, you can see for yourself for my positions are right now. Here are a few favorites: Baker Hughes (BHI) is a terrific head and shoulders pattern. Energy has been pretty cruel to me lately (I've got huge put positions on XLE and OIH), but this is one of my kinder energy plays.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=220&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=220&state=present&height=600&width=600
Genco (GNK) is more speculative. You can see the last high back in December was a skosh higher than the present one. Obviously I'd like to see this fall away, since January's tumble cut the price of this issue nearly in half (which, percentage-wise, which be far richer for my options).
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=221&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=221&state=present&height=600&width=600
And on the conservative side of the ledger is Disney (DIS) whose "slope of hope" is a beautiful site to me. The trendline gives me a nice, clean stop loss price.
And on the conservative side of the ledger is Disney (DIS) whose "slope of hope" is a beautiful site to me. The trendline gives me a nice, clean stop loss price.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=222&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=222&state=present&height=600&width=600
I have shied away from banks and investment banks in general - -I had a ball with BSC and the like last summer - - but one exception is Bank of America (BAC). This, like all my positions right now, is a put.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=223&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=223&state=present&height=600&width=600
Honeywell (HON) has been a source of frustration for me, but I've bought puts again since it is at the high end of its approximately $52-$61 range (which is some nine months old at this point).
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=224&state=present&height=600&width=600
Today was really good to me. I got out of my housing longs yesterday (taking about 15% profits on those stock positions in my little IRA account) and the equity market's softness today was terrific. If only energy could join in the downward action, I'd be a happy camper. Stay tuned.
Posted: 02:18 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
一月 25, 2009 - 06:47 上午Lights, Please?Argh. I'm more conflicted than ever about this market.
On one hand, looking at the charts, it seems a powerful rally is about to ensue. My speculation a few days ago that energy was going to be the place to be was absolutely right. Regretably, Thursday's gap down stopped me out of most of those positions, so I really didn't benefit from the insight. But as I am looking at charts this weekend, particularly ETFs, I cannot help but see very compelling long opportunities.
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On the other hand..............looking at charts on January 2nd, it seemed everything was ready to rock 'n' roll then, too. And it was at that exact moment that things fell absolutely to pieces. So I'm concerned about missing a great rally, and I'm also concerned about getting faked-out again. This kind of market is going to force all of us to become day-traders.
I can see two "real world" scenarios pushing things one way or the other. One scenario involves a credible (to most, at least) plan from Obama for setting things straight. The market rallies, and it has some follow-through. We might be able to fight our way back to 9,000 on the Dow (at which point I'd be much more comfortable shorting). Then the plunge could begin anew.
The other scenario - which, paradoxically, is better for the bulls - - is for one more Really Nasty Plunge to take place, mopping up all this bullish sentiment and allowing us to test (but not break) the November lows. What could cause this kind of plunge? Search me.......maybe a final wipe-out of the big commercial banks via nationalization. Whatever it is, that sort of "cleansing" process would make a great time to exit shorts and really load up on longs for a multi-month rally.
If God's listening, I'd like to cast my vote for that second scenario. I would be delighted to take big profits on existing shorts, load up on longs, and actually relax for a while as the market chugged higher.
Posted: 06:47 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
十二月 27, 2008 - 03:51 下午If Last Week's Lows Hold.......I haven't really gone through all my positions to get a sense, from a "bottom-up" perspective, of the market; I will say, however, that given the recent strength in energies and commodities, a new trading year starting this Friday, and the failure of a "terminal end" to 2008 transforming, I am tilting more heavily bullish. Simply stated, if last week's lows hold, the likelihood of a robust move higher in January strikes me as pretty solid.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3219&state=present&height=600&width=600
This graph is, to me, particularly alluring.
This graph is, to me, particularly alluring.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3220&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3220&state=present&height=600&width=600
My "early" positions on this bullish notion are focused in energy; I fear that, if I'm right, I may have to exit my many gold shorts earlier than I planned.
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I'll see you Monday morning, in what will be another relatively quiet week; we don't really get back to normal markets until Monday, January 5th.
Posted: 03:51 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
十一月 10, 2008 - 01:59 下午A Death Worse than FateWell, China (which at least has the decency to be openly Communist, as opposed to our nation, which pretends otherwise) threw $585 billion at its economy, and the AMEX China Index exploded with an amazing 2.36% gain. Whoo hoo! I can tell you one thing. I am through with FXP. It sucks. I am sticking with FXI for either bullish or bearish positions (I own puts as of earlier today). Anyway, does this chart look bullish to you? No, I didn't think so.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2722&state=present&height=600&width=600
My well-worn hands will be wrung less about the IHS (no, that's not a religious reference; I'm speaking of the inverted head & shoulders) because of the utterly lame-o job the bulls did with it today. The tinted area below represents a formidable amount of crud (there's that word again), and although obviously someday it will be breached, it is currently the bear's best friend. And, as I've said, even a rise above it would represent nothing more than another shorting opportunity.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2723&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2723&state=present&height=600&width=600
The potential for ES and NQ to break out is still there, but the IHS has become really, really sloppy and ugly (by the time you reach this, it might even be moot).
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2729&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2729&state=present&height=600&width=600
One of the areas that was sorta-kinda shaping up to be maybe a bit bullish was the SOX. That's going out the window too.
十一月 10, 2008 - 01:59 下午A Death Worse than FateWell, China (which at least has the decency to be openly Communist, as opposed to our nation, which pretends otherwise) threwits economy, and the AMEX China Index exploded with an amazing 2.36% gain. Whoo hoo! I can tell you one thing. I am through with FXP. It sucks. I am sticking with FXI for either bullish or bearish positions (I own puts as of earlier today). Anyway, does this chart look bullish to you? No, I didn't think so.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2722&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2722&state=present&height=600&width=600
My well-worn hands will be wrung less about the IHS (no, that's not a religious reference; I'm speaking of the inverted head & shoulders) because of the utterly lame-o job the bulls did with it today. The tinted area below represents a formidable amount of crud (there's that word again), and although obviously someday it will be breached, it is currently the bear's best friend. And, as I've said, even a rise above it would represent nothing more than another shorting opportunity.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2723&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2723&state=present&height=600&width=600
The potential for ES and NQ to break out is still there, but the IHS has become really, really sloppy and ugly (by the time you reach this, it might even be moot).
One of the areas that was sorta-kinda shaping up to be maybe a bit bullish was the SOX. That's going out the window too.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2728&state=present&height=600&width=600
One of my earliest posts today was to buy DUG. That was, I think, my best percentage gainer for the day. The declining volume and very clean stop-loss level made this a compelling trade.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2724&state=present&height=600&width=600
Over the weekend, someone was curious why I liked SDP so much. I think the $UTIL is just a super trade with a lot of life left in it. I think it has only realized about 35-40% of its potential drop so far.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2725&state=present&height=600&width=600
The ETFs have gone from a harami pattern (Thurs/Fri) to a bearish engulfing. Nice. Let's see what tomorrow holds. If we get a hearty up day, it'll just be more confusion all around, which I think we're all tired of seeing.
The ETFs have gone from a harami pattern (Thurs/Fri) to a bearish engulfing. Nice. Let's see what tomorrow holds. If we get a hearty up day, it'll just be more confusion all around, which I think we're all tired of seeing.
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I held on to my largish position in EEM. If the market does rally, I don't want to get stuck holding nothing but puts and shorts. My stop on this is pretty obvious, and a breakout would be powerful. This held up quite well today, considering.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2726&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2726&state=present&height=600&width=600
That's it for me today. Hang in there, everyone!
Posted: 01:59 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
十一月 08, 2008 - 10:47 上午Pushmi-PullyuThis is such a tough market to read.
On one hand, I am short (or own puts on....) a wide variety of stocks whose patterns are just gorgeous. They have all the markings of equities that are headed much lower.
On the other hand, all the major indexes I am looking out seem to be positioning themselves for an explosive countertrend rally.
So what concerns me is holding on to all these short positions as their patterns get destroyed by a general upsurge in the market. What concerns me just as much is to prematurely close out a bunch of positions out of fear of a big surge that never materializes. As you can read, I'm terribly conflicted about the entire thing.
One might suggest hedging the entire affair by going long index positions, and that's probably where I'm heading. Of course, I've seen what happens with properly hedged portfolios - - they just sit there, even in the midst of a big market move, which begs the question: what's the point of trading in the first place? I suppose non-movement of a portfolio is better than having it get crushed.
What I keep obsessing over is the inverted H&S forming in just about all the big ETFs. Here's one example:
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2709&state=present&height=600&width=600
The power of a breakout from such a pattern could be enormous; in this instance, pushing the IWM right back up to the neckline of the tinted rectangle (at which time you would see me writhing on the floor, trying to control himself from buying the entire world's supply of index puts).
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Looking at the ES, you can see similar basing action; take special note of the dotted red line. This is the level above which prices pushed higher late in October. Notice how this week's plunge did not penetrate that line. I believe that is significant. At the same time, take note of all the overhead supply from 936 up to 1,010. That's a lot of crud to push through.
The VIX is still pretty high, but if the market strengthens, this is heading much lower. If the market is terrifically strong,I think we'd see a VIX back in the high 20s.
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As a bear, I at least take comfort in the knowledge that any rally is going to be countertrend. I think the likelihood of any rally that begins now representing a new bull market is approximately zero. So, for instance, a rise in the DIA wouldn't get it past the very low 100s.
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There are some intriguing basing events going on. Intuitively, one would think the future of financial stocks in the U.S. is pretty grim, but from the chart perspective, there's some enticing action going on here.
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As conflicted as I am, I do feel somewhat confident that the Euro is about to push higher (and, with it, most commodities). We're at a decent level of support here for a bounce higher.