One thing that I think will help push energy higher is that I think gold is due for a bounce. Poor old gold! This thing has gotten just creamed!
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1627&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1627&state=present&height=600&width=600
Excitement is ubiquitous.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1628&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1628&state=present&height=600&width=600
POT got smoked, and put holders prospered. Now I think we could be in for a 20-30 point bounce higher. Long-term, I think this is going to be a bear's delight, but why not play it both ways?
POT got smoked, and put holders prospered. Now I think we could be in for a 20-30 point bounce higher. Long-term, I think this is going to be a bear's delight, but why not play it both ways?
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1629&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1629&state=present&height=600&width=600
I also tripped across this little beauty today, and I bought some.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1630&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1630&state=present&height=600&width=600
Setting aside my bullishness on energy for a moment, CEG is a pretty interesting looking toppy pattern.
Setting aside my bullishness on energy for a moment, CEG is a pretty interesting looking toppy pattern.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1631&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1631&state=present&height=600&width=600
And I think I'll sell my puts on MOS first thing in the morning. We've touched the retracement, and I'd like to re-enter if the price gets back to the next Fib up, which is at about $126.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1632&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1632&state=present&height=600&width=600
I bought more PCLN puts today, and I'm glad I did. This thing is down $17 after hours tonight!
I bought more PCLN puts today, and I'm glad I did. This thing is down $17 after hours tonight!
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1633&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1633&state=present&height=600&width=600
Ah, and good old BAC. This is what we technicians call the Farting Around Pattern. What on earth is this thing doing? When it breaks, it's going to break big (either up or down).
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1634&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1634&state=present&height=600&width=600
I am so behind on my emails, I really need to attack those. Thanks again for visiting Slope of Hope, and be sure to come back tomorrow! XOXOXOXO.
Posted: 03:56 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
八月 01, 2008 - 05:09 下午Is the Trap Set?This week might as well not have happened. In spite of four out of five days producing nearly or greater than 200 point changes on the Dow 30, the week basically ended flat. It was a huge amount of smoke and absolutely no fire.
However, this upcoming Monday is the day when a great many people whom I respect think the "big turn" is going to take place. Don't take my intrigued interest in their opinion as an endorsement. Maybe it'll happen, maybe it won't. Lord knows that watching the Russell today - - which, blast it, actually ended up in the green! - - was exasperating. But nothing aligns better with the future I foresee than the superb charts being produced these days by Elliott Wave International, one of which is shown here:
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1602
My stop on the Russell at 726.27 is set in stone. A violation of this would be both confusing and disappointing. Simply stated, next week needs to be down, and it needs to be down hard, in order to align with my hypothesis. It'll also make for a much more jovial Tim in Las Vegas.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1588&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1588&state=present&height=600&width=600
From the "beat a dead horse" category, I bring you again the $UTIL. This is one of the finest head and shoulders patterns I have ever witnessed. Assuming a neckline break, which is virtually a foregone conclusion, I have almost no doubt in my mind that the $UTIL will fall another 20% from the 15% it has already shed. I bought a ton of SDP today to back this point of view.
From the "beat a dead horse" category, I bring you again the $UTIL. This is one of the finest head and shoulders patterns I have ever witnessed. Assuming a neckline break, which is virtually a foregone conclusion, I have almost no doubt in my mind that the $UTIL will fall another 20% from the 15% it has already shed. I bought a ton of SDP today to back this point of view.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1590&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1590&state=present&height=600&width=600
I stand behind my notion that both energy and indexes are going to fall.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1591&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1591&state=present&height=600&width=600
I've got a large quantity of positions, almost all of them puts (the rest shorts). Here are a few favorites........
I've got a large quantity of positions, almost all of them puts (the rest shorts). Here are a few favorites........
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1592&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1592&state=present&height=600&width=600
MOS (and POT, for that matter) are taking a very long time to bake. It's like watching paint dry. But if and when the bear market in these issues comes, my puts will go up hundreds of percent.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1593&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1593&state=present&height=600&width=600
I have BAC on a very tight leash. It can't push past this week's highs, or else I'm out of there.
I have BAC on a very tight leash. It can't push past this week's highs, or else I'm out of there.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1594&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1594&state=present&height=600&width=600
I was pleased with CME's nearly 30 point drop today. I'm looking for this to head over 100 points lower from here.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1595&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1595&state=present&height=600&width=600
In spite of the recent strength in energy, I think there are plenty of opportunities to reload. I did so a couple of days ago, and JRCC did nicely today.
In spite of the recent strength in energy, I think there are plenty of opportunities to reload. I did so a couple of days ago, and JRCC did nicely today.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1596&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1596&state=present&height=600&width=600
Praxair (PX) is a new position for me; I don't think I've ever traded this one before.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1597&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1597&state=present&height=600&width=600
I bought RIMM puts yesterday based on the fact it has retraced to the underside of its broken trendline.
I bought RIMM puts yesterday based on the fact it has retraced to the underside of its broken trendline.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1598&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1598&state=present&height=600&width=600
Steel companies are doing well for me, and SCHN is probably my favorite among them.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1599&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1599&state=present&height=600&width=600
WLT has a nice double top in place.
WLT has a nice double top in place.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1600&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1600&state=present&height=600&width=600
One of my straight short positions is BDX.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1601&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1601&state=present&height=600&width=600
With all these fine ideas, how about you good folks offer up a few of your best ideas of your own in the comments section? Pay a little back to me and your fellow readers, eh?
And I will close with this clip of Leonard Nimoy in the opening credits to a television show called Baffled! which - understandably - never saw the light of day.
Posted: 05:09 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
七月 31, 2008 - 02:51 下午The Shrinking EconomyThe government released its advance estimate of GDP in the 2nd quarter, and it came in rather light - - - plus unemployment seemed to bump up, thus causing the market to take a nice 200+ point tumble on the Dow today. What was interesting wasn't so much the estimated Q2 2008 figures, but the fact that the U.S. government revised the past several years - all downward! - since they somehow magically discovered their earlier pronouncements were too high. Indeed, Q4 2007 - which, let's face it, was some time ago - went from a positive number to a negative one. Thus, the commerce department actually managed to confess that the economy is indeed shrinking. Big freakin' surprise.
There seems to be a widely-held notion (particularly by the likes of Cramer) that energy and indexes are inversely related. In other words, if oil can only manage to go down, then it's going to be a party for equities. This simply isn't the case. Witness yesterday when energy went up and indexes went up too - - or today when they both went down. More broadly speaking, I am positioning my portfolio for a substantial drop in both energy and indexes. Cheapening oil is going to be a symptom of a weak economy..........not its salvation.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1574&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1574&state=present&height=600&width=600
The Russell, which is where my index puts are focused, wasn't as weak as the Dow today, but it did lost six tenths of a percent. I am setting my stop-loss very tight, at yesterday's high, since I don't want to get caught up in a surge just in case the S&P does indeed find its way up to 1325.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1575&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1575&state=present&height=600&width=600
Speaking of the S&P, it fell more than twice as much as the Russell. The boldface retracement you see here remains my "line in the sand" for this particular market.
Speaking of the S&P, it fell more than twice as much as the Russell. The boldface retracement you see here remains my "line in the sand" for this particular market.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1576&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1576&state=present&height=600&width=600
Now that July is behind us, I thought I'd take a look at the year to date performance of the big indexes so far. The Dow is a big loser, having fallen over 12.5%.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1577&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1577&state=present&height=600&width=600
The $NDX is down about 10%, having been breakeven back in late May.
The $NDX is down about 10%, having been breakeven back in late May.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1578&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1578&state=present&height=600&width=600
And the Russell is down merely 5%, having actually been positive in late May. Even on a percentage graph, you can plainly see the head and shoulders pattern I am playing (which spans May into part of June).
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1579&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1579&state=present&height=600&width=600
I remain cautiously bearish on banks, both commercial and investment. Wells Fargo is one example, although I have no position in it now.
I remain cautiously bearish on banks, both commercial and investment. Wells Fargo is one example, although I have no position in it now.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1580&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1580&state=present&height=600&width=600
And Bank of America is another, in which I do have a big position, since it's a cleaner chart.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1581&state=present&height=600&width=600
First Solar's explosive earnings after the close yesterday propelled this stock twenty dollars higher earlier today; it ended up three - count 'em - three shiny pennies. This failure of a bullish breakout is encouraging for this put-holder.
First Solar's explosive earnings after the close yesterday propelled this stock twenty dollars higher earlier today; it ended up three - count 'em - three shiny pennies. This failure of a bullish breakout is encouraging for this put-holder.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1582&state=present&height=600&width=600
Late yesterday would have been a good time to re-enter some energy shorts. HES did a nice retracement.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1583&state=present&height=600&width=600
And OI sported a very impressive 12%+ tumble.
And OI sported a very impressive 12%+ tumble.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1584&state=present&height=600&width=600
I re-entered my Priceline position today as well; it could go a little higher, but the horizontal line you see below is my stop-loss, so the risk is pretty small.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1585&state=present&height=600&width=600
I tripped across some stills from a 1975 IBM Presentation. It's pretty awesome. If you want to check it out, click away.
Posted: 02:51 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
七月 30, 2008 - 05:37 下午Monday, Monday......The reason for the title of this post is that I've received a number of very thoughtful and cohesive arguments from readers postulating that Monday will be the end of the "c wave" we are in and will kick off the "wonder to behold" wave 3. In other words, folks think the market is going to keep fighting its way higher (and the past two days have been fairly brutal, let me tell you!) until sometime on Monday, at which time things are going to fall absolutely to pieces for our bull friends.
On the surface, the market looks terribly strong; I had thought mid-day we might enjoy a reversal, but it was not to be. The Dow closed at its highs for the day, causing havoc to bearish portfolios everywhere.
Looking at the Fibonaccis, however, is a little more encouraging. The retracement I've put in bold appears to be decent resistance. I will note that those calling for Monday as the reversal would surely put the Dow's target (and, thus, the DIA's) at a higher level than this. "S&P 500 to 1325" has become virtually a cliche lately.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1553&state=present&height=600&width=600
Crude oil's strength today held the Transports back so that they were actually in the red, in spite of the Dow's nearly 200 point jump (adding to yesterday's 250 point jump!)
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1554&state=present&height=600&width=600
I am somewhat chagrined to have written about DUG yesterday. I had a pretty big position in this - 2,000 shares - and early this morning I decided to sell it. Thank goodness, because I scored a very healthy profit, and by day's end it was actually a loss. I consider the red line I've drawn to be important support; if we seem to ease around the $32 level, I'll probably re-enter. You have to be nimble in a market like this, and when I saw this morning that we were not making new highs this month, I wasn't confident enough to hang on. My intuition was right this time.
I am somewhat chagrined to have written about DUG yesterday. I had a pretty big position in this - 2,000 shares - and early this morning I decided to sell it. Thank goodness, because I scored a very healthy profit, and by day's end it was actually a loss. I consider the red line I've drawn to be important support; if we seem to ease around the $32 level, I'll probably re-enter. You have to be nimble in a market like this, and when I saw this morning that we were not making new highs this month, I wasn't confident enough to hang on. My intuition was right this time.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1552&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1552&state=present&height=600&width=600
Looking at the EUR/USD, we're at an important decision point - - the price is right on the fan line, yet it is also positioned for a potential breakout (see red horizontal line). My money is on the fan line being broken, which would naturally result in a drop in energy (and, thus, a rise in DUG).
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1555&state=present&height=600&width=600
Another arrow in my "energy bear" quiver is the USO, which is approaching the underbelly of its broken fan line
Another arrow in my "energy bear" quiver is the USO, which is approaching the underbelly of its broken fan line.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1556&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1556&state=present&height=600&width=600
As for OIH, can you see the three high prices around $212.50 in late June and eaerly July? I don't think those are going to be breached. That's my stop-loss level.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1558&state=present&height=600&width=600
I bought puts on the $NDX (which were actually in the green during the middle part of today, in spite of the Dow's strength.......) and the $COMPQ seems to be bumping its head up against its lower channel line. Naturally my stop price on my index puts is set to the highs set on July 23rd.