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Posted: 01:59 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
八月 19, 2008 - 06:54 上午Breached WhaleSurging inflation and a withering housing market combined this morning to send equities down again. Looking at this intraday graph of the S&P 500, it's pretty plain that the uptrend from July 15th is done.
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I find the same intraday graph of Bank of America interesting. This chart leaves little doubt that the resurgence in financials is likewise over. This is a very sick looking chart.
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Posted: 06:54 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
八月 14, 2008 - 12:13 上午Let It All Hang OutIt's after midnight, so I'm just going to throw some charts at you. Everything is going according to plan so far. Oil: up. Gold: up. Equities: down. Let's see how long this bounce in gold and oil lasts before those markets join equities in the descent.
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Off to bed.....
Posted: 12:13 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
八月 13, 2008 - 07:41 上午Banking on AmericaIt was also good to see that, after weeks of grinding away in a tight range, Bank of America (BAC) finally broke beneath its retracement line.
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As an aside, I'll mention that early today I closed my $RUT puts at a small profit, simply because this index is behaving too strong for my liking. If the Dow is down over 100 and the $RUT is actually in the green, I've had enough. I don't trust this index right now, and I didn't want to extend the risk.I've got plenty of other good positions and don't want a laggard in the bunch. (Update: After posting this, it dawned on me what a moronic reason that was to close the position, so after examining the chart again - - and looking at Evil Speculator's post! - - I re-entered. I was going to delete this last paragraph since I undid my decision, but I knew you guys would crucify me.)
Posted: 07:41 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
八月 07, 2008 - 04:23 下午Fear of Music
Posted: 04:23 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
八月 05, 2008 - 03:56 下午The Seinfeld RallyToday the market rallied over nothing. Hence the title. The Fed, as by now you all know, kept interest rates exactly where they were before. The Dow rocked well over 300 points higher, and equities across the board zoomed upward while gold got pummeled again.
Prior to the opening, I had an interesting experience. One of the readers here - - I won't name him, but he's a good guy, and I respect him - - mentioned I was sounding "arrogant". Now my first reaction was to dismiss him as simply wrong, but I quickly told myself - - that's what an arrogant person would do! So I took my emotional temperature and told myself to listen to what he was saying. If a thoughtful, regular reader jabs me like that, I probably need to take stock of where my head is at and make some adjustments.
Now I'm not talking about adjusting my writing. In all honesty, it's not like I was being a blowhard. But there was enough "attitude" that he made a remark, and I decided that was a good signal - - much better than any technical indicator! - - that I'd better embrace humility, take a lot of positions off the table, and center myself. So that's what I did.
It may seem bizarre to have one word from one man (whom I've never even met) compel me to close out six figures worth of positions, but one of the cool things about doing this blog is that it gives me a mirror. And when that mirror starts to look ugly, I know that I need to adjust things. (Conversely, when I'm losing money, and I'm beating myself up, the pats on the back and "things will be ok!" reach a fevered pitch just before things turn around for the better).
Not to say that I didn't lose money today. I gave back a portion of yesterday's terrific 15% rise. But I definitely preserved a lot of profits that would have otherwise been lost.
With the big push higher in equities, we must ask ourselves again if we're going to march all the way up to 1320 on the S&P. But keep in mind it would only take one more day like today to get us all the way there! It's only 2.7% higher from here.
The Dow's next reasonable resistance is at 11,700. If it breaks that, I'd say it's heading to just below 12,000.
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I have some Russell puts, and they're down about 20%. I'm on the fence whether I'll hold on tight or just dump 'em and wait for a better buying spot.
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The resistance for S&P is as plain as day. Stop #1 is about 1292. Stop #2 is 1320. Simple as that.
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The chart of crude oil below looks pretty bearish, but you'll be surprised to hear how bullish I am on energy in a minute. As I've been saying, though, crude could head toward $110 or so before turning higher.
The chart of crude oil below looks pretty bearish, but you'll be surprised to hear how bullish I am on energy in a minute. As I've been saying, though, crude could head toward $110 or so before turning higher.
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$UTIL, you old beauty! Even though it went up today, this is a great pattern. As with ICE, I've drawn two necklines, since I'm not sure which is the real one. It's busted them both, however.
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Now, on to energy. I've made a lot of cash being an energy bear. I think I'm changing costumes tonight. Off comes the furry head, and on comes the one with horns on top. I think there are a lot of exciting technical opportunities on the bullish side of energy and commodities. Just look at XEC. That horizontal line is pretty exciting looking, if it holds. (Yes, I just described a horizontal line as exciting; pity me).
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The energy plays fall into two camps. One is the horizontal lines. The other is retracement to major trendlines. DO is an example of the latter.
The energy plays fall into two camps. One is the horizontal lines. The other is retracement to major trendlines. DO is an example of the latter.
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GDP has an XEC-style situation.
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One thing that I think will help push energy higher is that I think gold is due for a bounce. Poor old gold! This thing has gotten just creamed!