- 金币:
-
- 奖励:
-
- 热心:
-
- 注册时间:
- 2006-7-3
|
|
楼主 |
发表于 2009-3-26 17:27
|
显示全部楼层
八月 05, 2008 - 03:56 下午The Seinfeld RallyToday the market rallied over nothing. Hence the title. The Fed, as by now you all know, kept interest rates exactly where they were before. The Dow rocked well over 300 points higher, and equities across the board zoomed upward while gold got pummeled again.
Prior to the opening, I had an interesting experience. One of the readers here - - I won't name him, but he's a good guy, and I respect him - - mentioned I was sounding "arrogant". Now my first reaction was to dismiss him as simply wrong, but I quickly told myself - - that's what an arrogant person would do! So I took my emotional temperature and told myself to listen to what he was saying. If a thoughtful, regular reader jabs me like that, I probably need to take stock of where my head is at and make some adjustments.
Now I'm not talking about adjusting my writing. In all honesty, it's not like I was being a blowhard. But there was enough "attitude" that he made a remark, and I decided that was a good signal - - much better than any technical indicator! - - that I'd better embrace humility, take a lot of positions off the table, and center myself. So that's what I did.
It may seem bizarre to have one word from one man (whom I've never even met) compel me to close out six figures worth of positions, but one of the cool things about doing this blog is that it gives me a mirror. And when that mirror starts to look ugly, I know that I need to adjust things. (Conversely, when I'm losing money, and I'm beating myself up, the pats on the back and "things will be ok!" reach a fevered pitch just before things turn around for the better).
Not to say that I didn't lose money today. I gave back a portion of yesterday's terrific 15% rise. But I definitely preserved a lot of profits that would have otherwise been lost.
With the big push higher in equities, we must ask ourselves again if we're going to march all the way up to 1320 on the S&P. But keep in mind it would only take one more day like today to get us all the way there! It's only 2.7% higher from here.
The Dow's next reasonable resistance is at 11,700. If it breaks that, I'd say it's heading to just below 12,000.
I have some Russell puts, and they're down about 20%. I'm on the fence whether I'll hold on tight or just dump 'em and wait for a better buying spot.
The resistance for S&P is as plain as day. Stop #1 is about 1292. Stop #2 is 1320. Simple as that.
The chart of crude oil below looks pretty bearish, but you'll be surprised to hear how bullish I am on energy in a minute. As I've been saying, though, crude could head toward $110 or so before turning higher. |
|
|
[复制链接]
