一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

OIH (finally!!!!) is starting to fall apart. It's about freakin' time.

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I am blown away how fast the Russell has fallen. Clearly here we have huge support from mid-January and mid-march. If we break mid-March, look out below.

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Adding credence to the idea of support is the $OEX touch of the retracement as well.

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hefeiddd

S&P 500 broke its March lows (just look how far it has traveled since mid-May!!!). This has been a far more rapid bear swing than we've enjoyed in a long time.

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There's a lot of high-quality chatter going on in the comments section, and some of it is centered around DUG, which broke above resistance today on very, very strong volume.

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Now a few favorite short positions......CERN is falling away from resistance......

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hefeiddd

XEC is one of many energy shorts that has great potential and has already paid off.

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If MasterCard breaks that major trendline at $240, it's an easy trip to $220, which is the measured target.

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Add PXD to the energy list....

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hefeiddd

I'm crazy about SOHU. I own a ton of these puts.

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AZO is move away from the retracement it made toward its diamond pattern.

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BHI has taken a while to ferment, but I think it's finally there.

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hefeiddd

COP has sweet potential as a failed bullish breakout.

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DECK has been weirdly strong, but I've got hope for this one.

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And EOG is doing fantastically; very little support anywhere in sight!

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I'm getting on a plane now. I will not have another post until VERY LATE Tuesday night. See you then!

Posted: 03:54 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink

hefeiddd

六月 30, 2008 - 04:04 下午Explosive Three Point Rally!Today was a pretty lame-o trading day for me for a couple of reasons. One, I am heavily oriented toward bearishness on energy/ags, and those didn't do very well (in spite of crude oil softening up a little bit); and two, in hindsight, simply sticking with my index puts would have been better than trying to jump into index calls.
Now, before anyone thinks I'm suddenly a wild-eyed bulltard, I will remind you that my bearish positions (55) radically outnumber by bullish ones (6). But, based on the charts I'm looking at, I still think the market is due for a brief bounce. It tried to do so today, but I think the end-of-quarter craziness (particularly with such an historic quarter) distorted things pretty severely. In spite of my pain today, I am still embracing the thesis that energy prices will soften substantially, which will provide a "reason" for a decent equity rally. My positions are laid out for a one-two punch in this scenario.
Now, I know everyone refuses to believe we will bounce until the $VIX zooms past 30. I'm not convinced. Maybe people are used to things sucking now, so the "fear" isn't as prevalent as before (perhaps the $VIX is as much as surprise index as it is a fear index). I don't insist on a VIX spike.

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If we have weakness again tomorrow, I will be double-bummed, not only because of my index calls (gack, it's hard for me to even type that) but because of my closed-out index puts. But looking at the $INDU, I would feel radically more comfortable buying puts if the bulls fought their way back to the area just below 12,000.

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The QQQQs touched their Fibonacci retracement today. I'd like to see this bounce up to the next level higher, at which time I would re-acquire $NDX puts.

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hefeiddd

My Russell puts, which I sold late on Thursday, have continued to soar in "woulda/coulda" value. I'm leaving my tinted target there.

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My one big index call position is on the SPX, which seems to be the most resilient right now. Mid-March lows are the obvious stop-loss on this.

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I'll share a handful of positions now. I got some calls on JPM today. Considering LEH's 10% whack today, this one is holding up pretty well.

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hefeiddd

x

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My puts on MasterCard (MA) hold good promise, based on the clean pattern and high equity price.

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I was waiting for another chance to get into AZO, and I got it today.

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I am very excited about the ICE graph. This is a huge, HUGE pattern. Just a few more points, and we'll have a fully-busted neckline

hefeiddd

I am very excited about the ICE graph. This is a huge, HUGE pattern. Just a few more points, and we'll have a fully-busted neckline.

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x

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I wasn't expecting PCLN to cooperate so quickly, but it did. A beautiful broken major trendline here.

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Here's a close-up of SOHU, which is also a dainty H&S pattern. I also like the fact volume is picking up sharply as this starts to falter

hefeiddd

Here's a close-up of SOHU, which is also a dainty H&S pattern. I also like the fact volume is picking up sharply as this starts to falter.

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That's it for today, folks. Again, this will be a shortened week - - normal trading for just a couple more days, then an abbreviated session on Thursday. Thanks for stopping by, and good luck to all Slopers!
Posted: 04:04 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink

hefeiddd

六月 27, 2008 - 08:49 上午Good Second Chance with AZOBeautiful retracement here to the completed diamond pattern.

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Posted: 08:49 上午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink

hefeiddd

六月 26, 2008 - 06:01 下午So What Next?         
         
Posted: 06:01 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink

hefeiddd

六月 23, 2008 - 01:51 下午I'm Keeping George in My ThoughtsI received a lot of nice emails about my weepy post regarding George Carlin's passing today. I appreciate those. Sometimes people would rather share thoughts privately than publicly, and I completely understand that.
Please be reminded that I'm traveling on Tuesday, so there will be no post until after the market's closing. I'll be nervously fidgeting in the air, not even benefiting from seeing how the market opens. I'll have a brief intra-market-day layover to check on things. With the Fed announcing on Wednesday, hopefully Tuesday will be sedate.
I'm pretty excited about the prospect of IWM breaking the blue line you see below. I am getting re-enamored with the Russell as a trading instrument.

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Whereas I'm sick and tired of energy. This has been a boondoggle. I think I'm just going to stay away from OIH for a good, long time. Maybe crude's oil to $500 a barrel. Who knows. I'm tired of guessing.

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Just a few quick ideas to chew on tonight. CSX looks interesting; it violating its resistance somewhat, but appears to be turning back down.

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RIMM, which I think reports after Wednesday's close, is just a shot-in-the-dark on my part. This is one of those "well, it's got to fall one of these days" plays that either goes to $0 or works out great.

hefeiddd

RIMM, which I think reports after Wednesday's close, is just a shot-in-the-dark on my part. This is one of those "well, it's got to fall one of these days" plays that either goes to $0 or works out great.

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I like R as a short, but I'm kind of bugged that the options are surprisingly thinly traded.

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RJF is one of the financials that hasn't suffered as badly as its peers, but I think that could change soon. I'm shorting this one.

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Here's one that got away - AutoZone (AZO). I wrote about its diamond pattern many times, but I didn't stick with it. Shame on me.

hefeiddd

Here's one that got away - AutoZone (AZO). I wrote about its diamond pattern many times, but I didn't stick with it. Shame on me.

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Bank of America is the biggie out here in California, and I'm just blown away by what kind of fall this is taking. It has lost about 50% of its value in the past year. Below is a ten-year, weekly chart. What a plunge!

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I'm glad I gave up on my GENZ puts. I made a small profit on them, but I was noticing it was not behaving as it should, so I got out. When a pattern acts abnormally, that's a sign to move on. Doing so worked out in this case.

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I don't have a position in EZU, but its progress on the H&S formation is pretty to watch.

hefeiddd

I don't have a position in EZU, but its progress on the H&S formation is pretty to watch.

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I'll close with this video, which was from Carlin's last HBO performance. It is simply brilliant. For those who don't know any better, the language is pretty blue in some places, but this 10 minute clip is a fantastic example of Carlin's genius as a writer, performer, and comedian.

Posted: 01:51 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink

hefeiddd

六月 19, 2008 - 05:08 上午Crosseyed and PainlessOh, Lawdy, Lawdy. I went to bed at 2:45 a.m. Wednesday morning, having packed for hours. I had to get up at 4:00 a.m. to get ready for the trip. Off the plane goes at 6 a.m. Change planes in Salt Lake City. Arrive here in Baltimore. And it's past midnight, and I'm still up, looking at charts. Gawd. (Update: Errr, I collapsed in a heap at 12:30 and got up at 6:30 to resume........sorry!)

During the aforementioned layover, I was pleased to see the Dow was down 95 when I got off the plane. Soon after, it was down 125. When I got back on the plane, it was down only 65. I had, during the layout, tightened up stops and trimmed index puts a little. But I'm glad I didn't get too aggressive with tightening stops. The action today was spastic, and I was relieved when I finally landed (after the market had closed) to see the Dow was down over 130. The chart of the $NDX below shows how, in the course of one day, the market was just all over the place. It looks like one of those contrived wall charts you see drawn as background in one-panel cartoons.

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I'm starting to get a little cautious in my immediate-term bearishness based on the Dow approaching the rising trendline you see below, which indicates the higher lows that have been established through the course of 2008. I'd feel a lot more comfortable seeing this trendline broken. We're very close to it now, which could mean another bounce.

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The $COMPQ is more clear, with a relatively clean path down for about another 100 points (barring any general market strength!) The 2325 level seems to be the next logical resting place.

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As for the more narrow $NDX, provided we stay below 2,000, I'm comfortably bearish.

hefeiddd

As for the more narrow $NDX, provided we stay below 2,000, I'm comfortably bearish.

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The Russell 2000 has a bit of support at the dotted red line you see drawn around $718. We'll need to break that in order to have some downward momentum. I'd say doing so would clear a path to about the $670 level.

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Adding to my cautiousness is the $OEX, which is approaching a big Fibonacci retracement level. The move from 660 to about 600 may be all this has to offer in the medium-term.

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I like the pattern AAPL is carving out, with a retracement to a major trendline completed and a dainty series of lower lows and lower highs over the past six weeks. My target here is around $161.

hefeiddd

I like the pattern AAPL is carving out, with a retracement to a major trendline completed and a dainty series of lower lows and lower highs over the past six weeks. My target here is around $161.

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CAT is looked good, too, having failed to complete a bullish breakout in May and now slipping away from its 2008 trendline, drawn in red here.

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Coach has been a favorite short position of mine, and it will get to be even more favorite if it pushes past the green trendline shown below. That would be a pretty important break.

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I'm an idiot for having puts in ACI. Trying to guess when a momentum stock has topped out is lunacy. Shame on me. I bet I get stopped out of this one today.

hefeiddd

I'm an idiot for having puts in ACI. Trying to guess when a momentum stock has topped out is lunacy. Shame on me. I bet I get stopped out of this one today.

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I'm less of an idiot for my CEG short position, which has a major broken trendline and general downward movement for the past seven months in its favor.

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One of the most valuable lessons I've learned from the readers of this blog is to stay short on weak securities (sounds obvious, but I have always had such a penchant for trying to bring down crazy momentum players, this is somewhat of a revelation). The fact is that battered issues tend to get more battered, and I'm experiencing that with SHLD. I am simply going to keep hanging onto this.

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On Tuesday I pointed out the broadening top in VMI. The next day, this stock really had the air taken out of it.