一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

I haven't done anything with GENZ in years, but I've got puts on this since the pattern is mildly interesting.


Lastly, CEPH really has me intrigued. The neckline isn't straight across, but that doesn't bother me. I have big hopes for this one!


We've got a new puppy in the house, so I'd better go romp some more. See you Monday.

Posted: 04:57 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd

三月 27, 2008 - 07:11 上午Apple ShortOK, I need to talk about something - anything - to get Hillary's face off the top of Slope. So it'll be AAPL.
I've got puts on this, and I might get some more at these levels. I like how this price has broken its major trendline, fallen hard, and now has retraced to close its gap.

Here's a closer view.

It was weird to see the headline "Worst GDP in Six Years" this morning with a gain on the Dow next to it. Oh, well. As of this writing (only about 40 minutes into the open), it looks like the SPX and NDX are down, and the Dow has whithered away to just about flat. Naturally I always worry that the bad news is already priced in!

Posted: 07:11 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd

三月 03, 2008 - 11:12 上午Update on the Four HorsemanThe short answer: basically all down 40%. Hundreds of billions of dollars of equity already gone. In my opinion, lots more to come (or go, more accurately...........)






Posted: 11:12 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd

三月 20, 2009 - 08:05 上午Our Favorite White Whales

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Posted: 08:05 上午 | 67 insightful comments | Permalink

hefeiddd

三月 03, 2009 - 07:24 上午GrudgeZoneI think there's a fairly universal distaste on this board for Autozone (AZO) or, as I like to think of it, "The Stock That Cannot Go Down."

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I believe I am entitled to one completely stupid, irrational, grudge trade. I am therefore buying more puts on this thing. As for a stop price, $1,000 or so is probably right.


Posted: 07:24 上午 | 73 insightful comments | Permalink

hefeiddd

二月 26, 2009 - 08:30 上午That Guy is Such an AZOOK, it's irrational trade time! I am, for the nine-thousandth time, taking a bearish position on AZO via puts. How come? Because I hate this stock! (I used to feel the same way about ISRG, and look what happened to it!). Anyway, just for kicks. You should take note this is a really stupid trade.

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Posted: 08:30 上午 | 110 insightful comments | Permalink

hefeiddd

十二月 29, 2008 - 08:30 上午Five Favorite Put Positions

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hefeiddd

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Pretty bearish day so far; if we can just get below 857 on the ES things would really kick in. As it is, the retracement level is holding firm.
Posted: 08:30 上午 | 27 insightful comments | Permalink

hefeiddd

十二月 19, 2008 - 06:03 上午Continued EUR DropI see that the EUR/USD is down over 300 more pips as of this writing. For Forex traders, this has been an amazing ride.

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A number of folks have asked me about AZO, the stock every bear loves to hate. The high price of 143.80 isn't far away, but keep in mind this stock is a master at faking at the bears. I think this stock tipped its hand pretty badly when it plunged to the mid-80s, and I intend to hang on tightly to this short.

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Posted: 06:03 上午 | 36 insightful comments | Permalink

hefeiddd

十二月 01, 2008 - 04:02 下午Top Ten ListSomething a little different this afternoon - - I've gone through my charts and have picked out my ten favorites (which is no mean feat...........). I figured it was time to stop navel-gazing about comments and just throw some charts out there. As for market direction, I think Evil Speculator did a bang-up job with charting out the next few months, so I'll be a bum and just direct you toward his chart.
With the exception of this first chart (UNG), these are all short positions; I hope you find some of them to be of interest.

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Errr, that's eleven. And I could have easily done a top thirty. Oh, well. See you in the morning.

Posted: 04:02 下午 | 144 insightful comments | Permalink

hefeiddd

十月 17, 2008 - 04:36 下午Chart TaxonomyHere I am at the end of a hard week, having just opened up a marvelous 30 year old Glenfiddich that a reader gave to me (thanks, Michael T.!). I hope a few of you were able to join in on the "Spotlight" Tom Sosnoff and I just gave. Those are always fun.
If you did listen in, you heard my point of view on the market - - - the next few months seem so clear to me. I hope my clairvoyance is on the money, so to speak, because it's terribly exciting to me to be able to (presumably) have an understanding of what is going to take place.
For the moment, I am buying stocks. There are some who say the market is going to crash this week. It could. But even those who believe it might crash acknowledge that would be the "nail in the coffin" for this leg of the bear market, and we would then commence to push higher over a period of months. So, crash or not, I'm buying stocks. A lot of them. I just got started today.
There are three interesting flavors of charts I've categorized for the months ahead. Allow me to share these with you.
Caput Scapulique
This is my favorite. It may or may not be an actual head and shoulders pattern, but it is a chart which fell away from a major horizontal support line. I'm tracking about one hundred of these, and by God, they are luscious.

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Infractus Versus
I've tracking seventy of these critters - - the breakers of major trendlines. The target price is tougher on these, but I expect a hearty bounce, and I own a lot of these for the time being. I will naturally reverse the position at (hopefully) the right time.

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Ceterum
I've also got a grab bag of about fifty stocks which, although not cleanly defined, will still make fantastic shorts once the countertrend rally is over.

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Just to be clear, what I'm looking for is a steady, hearty, sustainable rally that lasts more than one freakin' trading session. I intend to take advantage of both sides - - up and then down. If we do this right together, we're all going to make fortunes.
By the way, I've slightly updated my Recommended Reading page, so please check it out. Have a good weekend. I'll see you on Monday.


Posted: 04:36 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink

hefeiddd

十月 13, 2008 - 11:02 上午First Set of Shorts

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Posted: 11:02 上午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink

hefeiddd

七月 15, 2008 - 08:13 下午Dance on VaselineI haven't mentioned my book in a while, so I'll do so here, since a lot of readers might not know about it - - - if you have an interest in ProphetCharts (which I use to compose this blog) or in my approach to technical analysis, you might want to check out Chart Your Way to Profits. Look through the reviews on Amazon, and I think you'll find most people really enjoy it. OK, that's the end of the plug. On with today's videos
         
         
Posted: 08:13 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink

hefeiddd

七月 07, 2008 - 03:54 下午Rocky Mountain HighGreetings from world-famous Denver International Airport. Some of you may think that I travel a lot. I don't. I just complain a lot about it when I do. Today was a fine example of why I hate traveling - - it takes me away from the markets! Incredibly, with just a few "quickie" opportunities to check into the market, I had a dynamite day, even making money (both directions) with some large Russell put (and then call) positions.
Lately I have been very correct about:

• Fall in ag-related prices
• Fall in oil-related prices

....and I've been very incorrect about.......

• Bottom being in on investment banks
• Equity markets being in position for a sustained bounce

Luckily, for those last two, (1) I haven't touched an investment bank, either long or short, for weeks; (2) I've been able to play the long and short side of equity index volatility very profitably.
This morning, I had 1000 shares of DIA, and when the Dow was up 100, I had that funny feeling that there wasn't going to be any more upside short term. I sold out (for a whopping $600 profit, which is pretty puny for a $112,000 position!) and bought Russell puts (since I was amazed to see Russell actually slightly down, in spite of the Dow being up 100 at the time). Well, the Dow lost all that, and 150 more, and those Russell puts turned out fabulous. Later in the day, I went long Russell calls and closed those out for a profit as well. I am - - as is the case these days - - in no index positions at all. I am simply uncomfortable at these levels holding big positions overnight.
$XBD seems to simply have no bottom. I have given up guessing. It'll probably take another major brokerage going belly-up.

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DIA seems to be hitting at least a little support on its Fibonacci, but it's very, very weak. If we get a multi-week bounce, I'd expect a lot of strength on this one.

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The head and shoulders formation I've been watching for weeks on $UTIL continues to very slow shape up.

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