Thursday, August 7, 200808/07/2008 Market Recap: Uptrend Still Valid
If the market had run up today, it could be a climax run and would be topped out soon.Now it pulled back and this looks quite healthy so far.On &disp=P]0.0.1 Simple SPY Trading System there are several higher lows.As long as the low on the blue trendline is not broken, the uptrend will be still intact.Pay attention to this low if the market continues to sell off.
http://lh6.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJvZ7Yd1ZhI/AAAAAAAAAZ4/pJwyTuk5-Yc/1_thumb.png
&disp=P]1.0.9 S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index, this has been proven to be a whipsaw.COMPQ does not confirm the sell signal so the mid-term signal is still buy.
http://lh5.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJvZ8HaR1JI/AAAAAAAAAaA/RYpesDxJTeI/2_thumb.png
&disp=P]3.0.3 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund iShares (TLT Daily).This is my concern.It rallied a lot, and the candlestick is a Morning Star, which has a relatively accurate pattern.This means the bullish trend of TLT will likely be continued, and this is bearish to the stock market since the money will fly to safety and the bond market.
http://lh4.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJvZ9IYEDbI/AAAAAAAAAaI/hMKjpyTqQ7M/3_thumb.png
&disp=P]3.1.0 US Dollar Index (Daily).US dollar is invincible as expected but it is seriously overbought, especially STO has reached a record high level.This means pullback is due.In addition, oil has sold off miserably and probably needs to take a rest.This is possibly bearish to the stock market.
http://lh5.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJvZ90pubHI/AAAAAAAAAaQ/Tk9u1ZyEFRc/4_thumb.png
&disp=P]1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily).Note that STO is still quite high, so is it on &disp=P]1.1.6 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ Daily).Therefore I do not really believe QQQQ will go further up significantly although it was quite bullish today.
http://lh6.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJvZ_WYRWdI/AAAAAAAAAaY/bTOF4PCwV9Y/5_thumb.png
&disp=P]1.1.4 Semiconductor Holders (SMH Daily).Here you can see why QQQQ was so bullish.SMH broke out and got overbought as well.
http://lh4.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJvaA4GJ8YI/AAAAAAAAAag/w3BoApUXdMw/6_thumb.png
As a summary, I guess the market will pull back a bit.There is no solid evidence that the big trend is changed, so the game is still buy dip, sell bounce.Of course a lower low should not be formed if the pullback continues tomorrow.On the other hand, keep an eye on &disp=P]2.8.0 CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio, where $CPCE is close to the trendline again.For a more accurate $CPCE data during the trading hours (note the comment on the chart), you may refer to data on CBOE. But you have to calculate the ratio of Puts/Calls in Equity Options column manually.Usually the intraday ratio isn't so different from the ratio at the market close.
http://lh4.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJvaB_1VLnI/AAAAAAAAAao/S9xTVzt3cAM/7_thumb.png
Posted by Cobra at 10:30 PM 3 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Wednesday, August 6, 200808/06/2008 Market Recap: Speculation vs TA Signals
In the Monday report 08/04/2008 Market Recap, I put a chart to show what had happened when SPY down 3 days in a row.Now let us look back and see how amazing it is.Note that 3 out of 5 times the market went up for three days, and my feeling at the moment is this time the market may push up for 4 days.Well, this is just my guess, no evidence though.
http://lh5.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJqFVeoBSeI/AAAAAAAAAYU/OlDJ8rjRl3E/1_thumb.png
Next let us review the current TA signals.
The most powerful one is the &disp=P]2.3.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume, Wow!
http://lh4.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJqFWAEpu0I/AAAAAAAAAYc/di5Sz31sq6Y/2_thumb.png
The next one is &disp=P]2.0.0 Volatility Index - NYSE (Daily), VIX MA(10) Envelop, which is a well-know indicator, is oversold.Note the red circles connected with red dash lines, compare with the market denoted by the green lines, don't you think once the lower edge of MA(10) Envelop is broken, the green line has a high probability of pullback?
http://lh6.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJqFXfHSdtI/AAAAAAAAAYk/hNH2jtuPFos/3_thumb.png
The old frield NAMO on &disp=P]1.1.B QQQQ and VXN is going up as expected and very close to overbought region now.
http://lh3.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJqFYIV8b3I/AAAAAAAAAYs/X6jx82hLWgU/4_thumb.png
And on the &disp=P]1.3.7 Russell 3000 Dominant Price-Volume Relationships today 1147 stocks were price up volume down, which is quite bearish.Note those red comments on the chart, the probability of getting a red candle next day is quite high.
http://lh3.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJqFYhCqySI/AAAAAAAAAY0/JF-2W6UzSfc/5_thumb.png
Furthermore on &disp=P]3.2.4 Yen RSI and the Market Bottom the Japanese Yen failed the battle with the US Dollars finally.However, on the chart everytime at the red line level, the market denoted by the green line pulled back significantly.Maybe this time is different, after all the relationship between the US Dollars and the Japanese Yen has changed.On the other hand, any rule will be considered to be valid before it is disproved.Therefore this signal cannot be ignored.
http://lh6.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJqFZWOSYSI/AAAAAAAAAY8/kaE9uMwD2FA/6_thumb.png
&disp=P]1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min), &disp=P]1.2.7 Diamonds (DIA 15 min).The pattern looks like a Bearish Rising Wedge.Additionally MACD and RSI show negative divergence.
http://lh5.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJqFaEd-GdI/AAAAAAAAAZE/8um__i4fooI/7_thumb.png
&disp=P]1.2.1 Dow Jones Industrial Average (Weekly).On the weekly chart you can see how tough the test is that INDU is facing.
http://lh5.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJqFa9mbyTI/AAAAAAAAAZM/x2C-NCN-JeE/8_thumb.png
&disp=P]1.1.4 Semiconductor Holders (SMH Daily).The challenges it is facing have not changed, overbought, bearish volume, RSI(14) testing resistance, and here is one more red candle which has high probability of reversal.This situation is bearish to COMPQ.
&disp=P]1.1.6 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ Daily), yes, it is a breakout.But it is now facing the challenges by MA(50), MA(100), Fibonacci 50%, and more importantly today is price up on decreasing volume.If tomorrow it goes up further and volume still decreases, this pattern, as I said many times, has a very high probability of plunge afterward.Remember that NAMO is close to the overbought region now.
&disp=P]1.3.0 Russell 2000 iShares (IWM Daily).This is a breakout, too.But it is also close to the resistance.Additionally it is volume keeps decreasing on up day, too.Therefore the situation is not optimistic.
&disp=P]1.1.A PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 15 min), &disp=P]1.3.6 Russell 2000 iShares (IWM 15 min).On the 15 min charts the patterns look like Bearish Rising Wedge.
According to the analysis, it is quite possible the market will pull back tomorrow.What about if it still goes up?Well, this is TA.My feeling is, as I said in the beginning, the market will go further up for 4 consecutive days, because the previous pattern is Wall Street always full of surprise.Do we believe in TA signals, or our own feelings?Let me emphasis again, TA always bet on high probability.Maybe aforementioned reasons would eventually be disproved, overbought could become more overbought.However, over the long term does our own guts have higher chance of winning than the TA signals which have been statistically validated many times in history?As a TA trader, I will strictly follow the TA signals instead of overriding TA signals by gut feelings.This is the secret of how TA can get success, which wins by long-term sustainable probability.Okay, let us take a look at 0.0.1, because of oversold VIX/MA(10) we are waiting for a reversal candle to trigger the short-term short, right?
http://lh3.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJqFcQA_FaI/AAAAAAAAAZU/Uz0lDDl5S5c/9_thumb.png
&disp=P]3.1.0 US Dollar Index (Daily).USD has passed the first fence and stopped at the second fence.Now it is overbought.
&disp=P]3.2.0 Japanese Yen (Daily), Breakdown!But it is overbought, and both STO and RSI(14) are at the support.
&disp=P]3.2.3 US Dollar/Japanese Yen Ratio.Very good!
http://lh3.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJqFc1_93mI/AAAAAAAAAZc/A9Z9hXRH7-8/10_thumb.png
&disp=P]3.3.0 streetTRACKS Gold Trust Shares (GLD Daily).Today it is a black candle which has a high probability of reversal.Possible Bullish Harami formed at important support.In addition STO is on the support, too.
&disp=P]3.3.2 streetTRACKS Gold Trust Shares (GLD 60 min), MACD divergence.It looks like a V bottom.
As a result, shouldn't GLD bounce back soon?
&disp=P]3.4.1 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO Daily).It is almost retraced to Fibonacci 50%, at where pullback usually finishes.STO is on the support, too.
&disp=P]3.4.2 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO Weekly).The oil is on the long term trendline, which can be seen on the weekly chart.
http://lh5.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJqFdlag6KI/AAAAAAAAAZk/ZzVOFPaJVE8/11_thumb.png
&disp=P]3.4.3 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO 60 min), MACD and RSI show positive divergence.
Note that &disp=P]5.2.0 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE Daily) has started to bounce back.XLE usually leads the oil, so the oil will likely go up too.
If the oil bounces back and so is the XLE, note the negative correlation between XLE and &disp=P]5.3.0 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Daily), XLF may pull back further.
http://lh6.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJqFeEVz7LI/AAAAAAAAAZs/vV_FSqqFJDc/12_thumb.png
Posted by Cobra at 10:17 PM 3 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Tuesday, August 5, 200808/05/2008 Market Recap: CPC readings are little too bullish
Today the market soared but there is an issue: &disp=P]2.8.1 CBOE Options Total Put/Call Ratio. The CPC reading reached the new low this year, and the sentiment is extremely bullish. I am not saying the market is making a U-turn now, but it cannot keep bullish for very long. In term of trading practice, I think it is a nice hedge to make counter-trend short whenever the market gets overbought.
http://lh6.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJk0u5iVT0I/AAAAAAAAAXE/oGu3IHe3CNA/1_thumb.png
&disp=P]1.1.B QQQQ and VXN. The old friend NAMO went up again and is close to overbought region at the moment. If tomorrow the market goes up further, short will have a high probability of success.
http://lh4.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJk0v5PTFjI/AAAAAAAAAXM/uZvEcVybdHc/2_thumb.png
&disp=P]1.1.C TRINQ Trading Setup. I would usually like to use an indicator once it is proved to have an edge recently and as far as it still has. According to the chart, the success rate of the TRINQ setup is 10/14, which is quite impressive. So I do think today's reading 0.32 is over bullish, and tomorrow the market will likely go down.
http://lh4.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJk0woTEv6I/AAAAAAAAAXU/2Obn-8am43s/3_thumb.png
&disp=P]1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min), &disp=P]1.1.A PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 15 min), &disp=P]1.2.7 Diamonds (DIA 15 min). The 15-min chart of all three major indices are overbought now. According to my experience, the market will unlikely rally up significantly considered the RSI at such a high level.
http://lh5.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJk0xrsxboI/AAAAAAAAAXc/HV3Ov7XGKVE/4_thumb.png
&disp=P]1.1.6 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ Daily). This is still Bearish Rising Wedge. Note that the volume is confirming this pattern.
http://lh6.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJk0zcCT7dI/AAAAAAAAAXk/eKRXvBpk_fw/5_thumb.png
&disp=P]1.1.8 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 60 min). Note the resistance on the RSI indicator.
http://lh3.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJk00dUga1I/AAAAAAAAAXs/Qj6QjELDdR0/6_thumb.png
&disp=P]1.1.4 Semiconductor Holders (SMH Daily). The important component of Nasdaq is overbought and testing the major downtrend line. In addition, the volume is quite bearish, and RSI(14) is testing the resistance, too.
http://lh3.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJk02TIEklI/AAAAAAAAAX0/-nUgY1Vc3Jc/7_thumb.png
As a summary, it will be a good chance to short if QQQQ does not pull back tomorrow.
&disp=P]3.1.0 US Dollar Index (Daily). The US dollar is super strong, but it is getting tough test -- major downtrend line, RSI(2) overbought, and STO got back to the resistance. Even it passes the test, Fibonacci 50% and MA(200) are waiting right ahead. Considering that the US dollar is overbought, it could be tough to pass both tests. Anyway the market is invincible, and I am merely human. Although it looks unlikely or probably hopeless, you never know.
http://lh4.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJk03-dDloI/AAAAAAAAAX8/ICxywJTk4lU/8_thumb.png
&disp=P]3.2.0 Japanese Yen (Daily). The Japanese Yen is very strong and still on the major support.
http://lh3.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJk04zxiHmI/AAAAAAAAAYE/Qhd9HzsyU9Y/9_thumb.png
&disp=P]3.2.3 US Dollar/Japanese Yen Ratio. The battle between US dollar and Japanese Yen is at a key point, and the resistance is significant.
http://lh6.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJk05fcnWVI/AAAAAAAAAYM/BCuA_QNIEUo/10_thumb.png
Usually aforementioned factors mean the market is due for a pullback.
&disp=P]3.3.0 streetTRACKS Gold Trust Shares (GLD Daily), the GLD is oversold. On the weekly chart &disp=P]3.3.1 streetTRACKS Gold Trust Shares (GLD Weekly) RSI is already on the support.
Posted by Cobra at 10:21 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
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Monday, August 4, 200808/04/2008 Market Recap: What had happened when SPY down 3 days in a row?
Tomorrow is the Fed day.Concerning the Fed day, my experience is:
[*]Lock some part of the profit before 2:15pm;[*]The market will act like a roller coaster -- go up hundreds of points in minutes, go down hundreds of points in minutes, and maybe go up again for hundreds of points... so experienced traders will take a rest;[*]The real direction of the market will not be clear until a few days later.So if the market closes green tomorrow, bulls don't need to be cheerful, on the other hand if the market drops bears should not feel excited as well.Tomorrow the Fed may keep the rate unchanged.On &disp=P]3.0.8 Projected Fed Rate, the Fed rate will align with three-month T-Bill eventually.Now T-Bill is lower than the benchmark rate for 0.25, which means, in theory (well, in theory only) the Fed would cut the rate further for 0.25 point.
http://lh3.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJfMpLmXVFI/AAAAAAAAAV0/6y_krJS9dT0/1_thumb.png
Now let us discuss a pattern which was used to be very accurate but failed today.
&disp=P]2.1.0 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 5 min).I said if TRIN was constantly lower than 1 and (especially) the Japanese Yen was dropping at the same time, the market would normally close green.Unfortunately this pattern failed today.What I mean is that, whatever pattern is all about probability, no one will be 100% accurate or reliable forever.
http://lh4.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJfMpwf5F7I/AAAAAAAAAV8/HidHO7u6Jq0/2_thumb.png
With the aforementioned pattern in consideration, now look at another pattern which happened today, SPY down 3 days in a row, especially all are red candles, what happened the next day?What happened afterward?
http://lh3.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJfMq5pkWKI/AAAAAAAAAWE/nCrSkKDMYkE/3_thumb.png
&disp=P]1.3.7 Russell 3000 Dominant Price-Volume Relationships.The dominant price volume relationships today were 1189 stocks price down volume up, which means the market is oversold.Note the green comments on the chart, the probability of going up next day is quite high after consecutive days of dropping.
http://lh5.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJfMrjePJpI/AAAAAAAAAWM/EdmKgc4Hg7Q/4_thumb.png
As a summary to two factors explained as above, tomorrow the market has a high probability of going up.
Among three warnings mentioned in the weekend report, one of them has been confirmed, another one is under watch.
&disp=P]1.0.9 S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index, SPX shows a sell signal which is the first mid-term sell signal so far.Take notice that once the buy/sell signal has been confirmed by all three indices, it will be highly reliable.Therefore it is prudent to watch if COMPQ will give a sell signal soon.
http://lh3.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJfMvviFsCI/AAAAAAAAAWU/C_KEWfVSN8U/5_thumb%5B1%5D.png
&disp=P]2.8.0 CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio.This has not been confirmed today since it is possible to draw another trend line which also looks reasonable.So the warning is clear, but still be cautious.
http://lh6.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJfMw7ib5KI/AAAAAAAAAWc/YaAWbVrfCuc/6_thumb.png
The conclusion is to be cautious.I am not completely sure whether the mid-term outlook is bearish or bullish before watching for a few days more.
&disp=P]1.1.6 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ Daily).This looks like the Bearish Rising Wedge has broken.
http://lh5.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJfMyM7JzbI/AAAAAAAAAWk/D6-VY9gtPHo/7_thumb.png
&disp=P]1.1.4 Semiconductor Holders (SMH Daily).The Semiconductor chart looks quite bearish, lower low, and weak rebound on decreasing volume.
http://lh6.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJfMzTh9VII/AAAAAAAAAWs/jffeTB9sVUA/8_thumb.png
The conclusion is that the COMPQ is still weak.NAMO on &disp=P]1.1.B QQQQ and VXN has backed off from the overbought region, but the distance is not enough and it may easily go there again.Therefore, as what I said in the weekend report, it is still okay to short QQQQ as a hedge.
&disp=P]3.1.0 US Dollar Index (Daily).The recent few candles looks like consolidation, and the breakout direction is unknown.But the pattern is a Bearish Rising Wedge and RSI(14) is testing the resistance, as a result US dollars doesn't seem so well although hope is still there.
http://lh6.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJfM0vwIsKI/AAAAAAAAAW0/M-31oMS_5UI/9_thumb.png
&disp=P]3.2.0 Japanese Yen (Daily).It is still on the support.
http://lh3.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJfM17VUyFI/AAAAAAAAAW8/mDDbxQijqkA/10_thumb.png
Note that the movement of these two may be critical to the stock market.
Posted by Cobra at 8:45 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Sunday, August 3, 200808/01/2008 Market Recap: More Warnings, a solution to workaround warnings
The market went down on the Friday but many people are happy because it might be a chance to catch the train. Is this the first time people are happy about the downside movement? I have never seen the market keeps bullish regardless of continuous down, and it seems no bad news could pull back the market. &disp=P]1.0.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Daily) looks strong too, two days down could not even claim back the rally of previous two days up, which means the trend is strong. However, Don Worden in Telechart considers it a Bear Flag, and doubt the current trend: There is an old stock market maxim about the news and the market. It goes something like this: "Never trust a market moving obviously in response to specific news." I think a lot of us have violated this admonition in recent months, particularly involving the market's relationship to the price of oil, but also in response to a wide variety of geopolitical and domestic economic events (and threats of events) as well. On the other hand, John Murphy concludes from the Fibonacci retracement: Odds now appear to favor a retest of the July lows.
http://lh3.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJYCo_OxydI/AAAAAAAAAUU/Eyohswa8Dlw/1_thumb%5B1%5D.png
I don't know who is right, but my signals do not support the market to go further up.
&disp=P]2.8.0 CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio. It spiked Friday. According to the past situations the rally is likely over, and this signal has been accurate since the last year. If next Monday it spikes up further, it will be very likely the rally is indeed over.
http://lh3.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJYCqMTAbXI/AAAAAAAAAUc/wrNTi4QFRr8/2_thumb.png
&disp=P]2.3.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume. This chart is highly accurate too. The spike last Friday worries me. Again, if it spikes further next Monday, it will very possible the rally is over.
http://lh5.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJYCsT05meI/AAAAAAAAAUk/jvK9ME_fAes/3_thumb.png
&disp=P]1.0.9 S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index. This chart might be more different to comprehend. INDU sell signal. Over the history on the entire chart, INDU sell signal has less number of whipsaws, and thus the most accurate one, moreover INDU always gives the buy/sell signals first recently. If you are convinced by &disp=P]0.0.3 INDU leads the Market (so far the prediction has been correct for 2/3, the last 1/3 is due), you should pay attention to this INDU sell signal.
http://lh3.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJYCtbwLwNI/AAAAAAAAAUs/DyDSqTuHBi4/4_thumb.png
In this weekend, I received an email from a reader, the question is why I short even I do not have a confirmed sell signal?
Good question. We have warnings, the highly accurate warnings proven in the past, but our mid-term signals are still buy, should we override these mid-term signals? It's your decision to make. The mid-term signals are usually lagging indicators, very often when the signals change you have incurred a significant loss. Therefore, occasionally overriding mid-term signals are not a terrible trading strategy. At the moment I have no idea what kinds of bad news could hammer down the market, so I tend to not override these signals. However these warnings are to be listened, so my solution is to short some weak and overbought sectors for the hedging purpose.
In the following let us check out which index is relatively weak.
&disp=P]1.0.8 S&P 500 Large Cap Index Year-to-Date Performance. On the chart, in term of relative strength INDU and NDX (QQQQ) are relatively weak. By the way RUT (Russell 2000) is relatively strong. So the first candidate should be IWM if you want to long an index.
http://lh3.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJYCueT_BiI/AAAAAAAAAU0/GMFv3e9y34Y/5_thumb.png
&disp=P]1.1.B QQQQ and VXN. The old friend NAMO is still very close to the overbought region.
http://lh5.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJYCvEyC7gI/AAAAAAAAAU8/o-1hZMnfnoM/6_thumb.png
&disp=P]1.1.4 Semiconductor Holders (SMH Daily). Note the relative strength marked by the red circle, the semiconductor as an important component of COMPQ is very weak, and it is hard to imagine COMPQ is going strong when the semiconductor is still weak.
http://lh6.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJYCwbzWuoI/AAAAAAAAAVE/pL6VC7GnaRs/7_thumb.png
In addition, &disp=P]0.0.4 QQQQ Outperforms SPY Good Sign? is still quite high. I think it will cause a problem eventually.
http://lh6.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJYCxJqTL2I/AAAAAAAAAVM/v974lTWzl20/8_thumb.png
Therefore, among all indices the target to short is obvious... please welcome QQQQ (applause... more applause)
&disp=P]1.1.6 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ Daily). Here is a Bearish Rising Wedge.
http://lh6.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJYCyii5F7I/AAAAAAAAAVU/r_5BTqsZok8/9_thumb.png
&disp=P]1.1.A PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 15 min). Another Bearish Rising Wedge on the intraday chart.
http://lh3.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJYCzQ7To0I/AAAAAAAAAVc/VhD-G2p4rCU/10_thumb.png
As aforementioned, I tend to believe in my signals instead of rushing to long due to the fear of missing the boat. In term of strategy, I will hold my current long positions according to the NYSI signal, and short QQQQ for hedging at an appropriate point.
&disp=P]1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min), &disp=P]1.2.7 Diamonds (DIA 15 min). Both show Bearish Rising Wedges.
&disp=P]1.3.0 Russell 2000 iShares (IWM Daily). The pattern looks like a Symmetrical Triangle, 75% probability of continuously going up.
&disp=P]1.4.0 S&P/TSX Composite Index (Daily). Here is an Ascending Triangle. We need to see if the oil price will go up.
&disp=P]1.0.7 Select Sector SPDRs. It looks nice to put sectors on a single chart so I added this chart. The purpose is not to predict which will go up or down, but to check the relative strength of each sectors and finally find the strongest sector to long, and the weakest sector to short. On the chart, fancy sectors are showing triangles and the direction isn't clear. On the other hand XLV and XLP as defensive sectors tend to go up. The overall picture is that the money is defensive, which is a typical sign of the bear market.
http://lh3.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJYCz3VtOzI/AAAAAAAAAVk/B9ocH59Pshs/11_thumb.png
Posted by Cobra at 12:11 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Thursday, July 31, 200807/31/2008 Market Recap: Wall Street's Magic Number 3
Today let us have a game analysis.Many people are feeling bullish although the market plunged, right?My observation is that, continuous selling-off rarely happens recently.After a day of selling off the next day the market usually goes up.It is especially true this week: selling off a day, dramatic rally the next day, another day of soaring up, a bigger diving down today.According to the observation, the market would go up violently, wouldn't it?Well, the Wall Street's game is that, the third time will be different.Tomorrow let's see if the Wall Street will give us a surprise.
&disp=P]1.0.2 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Monthly).Yesterday I said today would be an important test for SPX monthly prediction.Yes, indeed two months down in a row!The good news is that we have already see two months down, then it will unclear if the market goes up or down in the August.So at least there is a possibility.
http://lh4.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJKQ2M7BJSI/AAAAAAAAATY/1wvjsunbmcs/1_thumb%5B1%5D.png
&disp=P]1.1.B QQQQ and VXN, &disp=P]2.2.1 NYSE McClellan Oscillator, &disp=P]2.8.1 CBOE Options Total Put/Call Ratio, these three indicators have been corrected in some sense.However, they are still close to the overbought region, so I will still consider the upside room is limited if there is no follow-through pullback tomorrow.
http://lh4.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJKQ3FRxIBI/AAAAAAAAATk/S-DuaKmLl0Y/2_thumb%5B1%5D.png
Especially the NAMO indicator on 1.1.B is very close to the overbought region.It would be safer if it dives down more.
http://lh3.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJKQ39ixOSI/AAAAAAAAATs/p0RZGM--Tss/3_thumb%5B1%5D.png
&disp=P]2.8.1, the Bearish Area at the bottom has more serious problem.If CPC keeps going up, the Bearish Area will shrink, which means the market is actually going down from the top according to the history data.On the other hand, if CPC goes down the Bearish Are will enlarge, which means the market will reach the top soon.The key issue is that the market broke out on July 15th in the CPC Bearish Area, which causes the limited upside room.Anyway, this chart is a warning only and one should not act based on this chart solely.
http://lh4.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJKQ47nCQDI/AAAAAAAAAT0/OqRWe5Hw1qc/4_thumb%5B1%5D.png
&disp=P]1.1.8 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 60 min).It looks like a Bearish Rising Wedge.Not good.
http://lh5.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJKQ5kO8CgI/AAAAAAAAAT8/45P790peA24/5_thumb%5B1%5D.png
&disp=P]3.1.0 US Dollar Index (Daily).The US dollars seems unable to hold the key tests.Let's see how it goes tomorrow.
http://lh6.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJKQ60tMLvI/AAAAAAAAAUE/K74RbVGSNYc/6_thumb%5B1%5D.png
&disp=P]3.2.0 Japanese Yen (Daily).The Japanese Yen looks holding the key support.Together with 3.1.0, this is bearish to the stock market.
http://lh6.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJKQ78rIhPI/AAAAAAAAAUM/A8bvU-CfK0Q/7_thumb%5B1%5D.png
Conclusion: according to the Game Analysis, be ready to have a surprise from the Wall Street tomorrow.Even if there is no surprise, I still do not think the market can go up too far considered that the breadth is extremely close to the overbought region.Therefore my opinion is it might be better to do both long and short.My own strategy is to hold long, and do short-term short when the market breadth enters into overbought region again.
Posted by Cobra at 9:28 PM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
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Wednesday, July 30, 200807/30/2008 Market Recap: Important test for SPX monthly prediction tomorrow
Today I received an email of complaining my inaccurate prediction.Then I realized the yesterday's title is not entirely accurate, or in some sense a bit misleading.When I said "not much room left on the upside", I meant short-term we should expect a pullback.Obviously the market pulled back significantly in the mid-day, which show my analysis is correct although the market finally went up.My concern is that a few indicators are not corrected to the right level due to the afternoon rally, which is not a good news for bulls.Anyway I will make my analysis clear in term of timing, i.e. short-term or mid-term, as it is expressed on &disp=P]0.0.0 Signal Watch and Daily Highlights.
http://lh4.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJFIrNtCIOI/AAAAAAAAASM/S-u671Lt5LQ/0_thumb%5B1%5D.png
The indicators I discussed yesterday have not changed so much today.But tomorrow is the last day of July, and it is time to validate my previous observation that at least two months down in a row in a bear market on &disp=P]1.0.2 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Monthly).Currently the candle is a cross.I have no strong evidence to show tomorrow the market will be down, but it's a bit overbought on 5-min and 15-min intraday charts, so tomorrow we should see at least a pullback.
http://lh3.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJFIr5uyprI/AAAAAAAAASU/jLtO7vC7VZY/1_thumb%5B1%5D.png
&disp=P]2.8.1 CBOE Options Total Put/Call Ratio.This has worried me for a while.According to Dr. Brett Steenbarger's observation on MA(10) and MA(200) of CPC, when MA(10) was below MA(200) usually the market was topped out.Of course the problem is that it is not clear how deep the MA(100) goes below MA(200) the market will be at the top precisely.In the past, -0.1 is near the top, and now it is not there yet, nevertheless it's better to be cautious.During the March rally, MA(10) was above MA(200) for a month and then went below for a month.Now MA(10) has stayed below MA(200) for 10 trading days, which is about a half of one month (or 20 trading days).And that's a part of the reason why I said "not much room on the upside".I am not saying the market will go down immediately, it is not entirely impossible that the market goes up 200 points in a day, or 2000 points within 10 days.I probably should say not much time left.Anyway, this chart does tell you the immediate direction, it just remind you where the market is at the moment.
http://lh6.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJFIskx2wKI/AAAAAAAAASc/oEseH37FTJk/2_thumb%5B1%5D.png
&disp=P]1.1.B QQQQ and VXN.Yesterday I said NAMO was nearly overbought, now it is.You may have witnessed the accuracy of overbought Breadth indicators.Therefore if QQQQ continues to rally tomorrow, I think the probably of shorting could be fairly high.
http://lh6.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJFItcR3vNI/AAAAAAAAASk/f80SSEqvSSM/3_thumb%5B1%5D.png
&disp=P]2.2.1 NYSE McClellan Oscillator.It is a bit high but not overbought yet.Just a warning.
http://lh5.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJFIuW_KtZI/AAAAAAAAASs/QWQMFAHA2a4/4_thumb%5B1%5D.png
&disp=P]3.1.0 US Dollar Index (Daily).The important test that I mentioned yesterday has not passed yet.Tomorrow the test will continue.
http://lh6.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJFIvSCzhfI/AAAAAAAAAS0/MiTfZJWflIU/5_thumb%5B1%5D.png
&disp=P]3.2.1 Japanese Yen (Weekly).Japanese Yen is still on a key support.On the 15-min chart, it was pulled up impressively.If tomorrow it follows through, it is going to be very bearish to the stock market.
http://lh6.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJFIvxRJ6CI/AAAAAAAAAS8/cNjxl1GQAMc/6_thumb%5B1%5D.png
http://lh6.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SJFIwwhJ1oI/AAAAAAAAATE/eY0igAeYRMo/7_thumb.png
&disp=P]3.3.0 streetTRACKS Gold Trust Shares (GLD Daily).The triple support is now broken, as I predicted in the weekend report.
Conclusion: the probability of pullback tomorrow or the day after tomorrow is high.The market will be very unlikely to go up the second day after tomorrow.I keep skeptical to how long the rally will last, but I will go long by following NYSI signal anyway.By skeptical I mean when the market is extremely overbought, it is wise to make short-term counter-trend short.Please keep a eye on the short-term signals on &disp=P]0.0.1 Simple SPY Trading System.
Posted by Cobra at 10:08 PM 4 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Tuesday, July 29, 200807/29/2008 Market Recap: No much room left on the upside
Today the market soared, and bulls are quite excited.Well, it is probably a bit over-bullish since two key indicators are very close to reversal region, so I doubt the further upside room.My gut feeling is that the July 15 market bottom might not be very mature due to the external intervention, as a result several key indicators frequently get overbought and the market may keep range bounding to test if you have a brave heart.
Anyway, the NYSI mid-term buy signal on &disp=P]0.0.1 Simple SPY Trading Systemis to be followed.Reversal candle as well as heavier volume, so today one should partially buy in.There is no 100% accurate trading signals, the key to success is persistence and following the probability over the long term.
Why do I doubt the rally?Here are the reasons.
&disp=P]1.1.B QQQQ and VXN.Note the NAMO is near overbought.If the market continues to go up, ... you know what will happen.
http://lh6.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SI_xr-93jII/AAAAAAAAAQ0/hCWhP6h2fYE/1_thumb%5B1%5D.png
&disp=P]0.0.2 Market Top/Bottom Watch.Maybe it is more obvious on &disp=P]2.8.1 CBOE Options Total Put/Call Ratio, but 0.0.2 is a big picture.Again, CPC is merely 0.84, which is close to well-known market top value 0.8.Note the red dashed lines, when MA(10) went below MA(200) that much, very often the market dived down.Therefore be alerted to this indicator.
http://lh5.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SI_xs5EeNnI/AAAAAAAAAQ8/cOWsfx17IEo/2_thumb%5B1%5D.png
&disp=P]3.1.0 US Dollar Index (Daily).Today the US Dollar was quite bullish.Tomorrow it will be challenged, however.
http://lh6.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SI_xuYtpNzI/AAAAAAAAARE/ijYlFaNR0gs/3_thumb%5B1%5D.png
&disp=P]3.2.0 Japanese Yen (Daily).The Japanese Yen is sitting on a very important support.How important is the support?You may get it on the weekly chart &disp=P]3.2.1 Japanese Yen (Weekly).
http://lh5.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SI_xvGqRcHI/AAAAAAAAARM/uJdevLAAft4/4_thumb%5B1%5D.png
&disp=P]3.3.0 streetTRACKS Gold Trust Shares (GLD Daily).GLD is on the triple support.
http://lh5.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SI_xxUfsbUI/AAAAAAAAARU/pfb__2y0_us/5_thumb%5B1%5D.png
&disp=P]3.4.3 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO 60 min).It is still Bullish Falling Wedge, and both MACD and RSI show positive divergence.
http://lh4.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SI_xyDJsT4I/AAAAAAAAARc/pS6MHpXxqHk/6_thumb%5B1%5D.png
As a summary to the inter-market conditions, tomorrow is the key.The rally of Yen and oil, if any, will be bearish to the stock market.
&disp=P]1.1.A PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 15 min).It looks like a Flag so at least tomorrow morning it may go further up.
http://lh4.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SI_xyydlOWI/AAAAAAAAARk/nd1pVoNPzlI/7_thumb%5B1%5D.png
&disp=P]1.2.7 Diamonds (DIA 15 min).Here is a Bearish Rising Wedge.RSI doesn't look good.
http://lh5.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SI_xz4jeZRI/AAAAAAAAARs/wIMimAr1mKo/8_thumb%5B1%5D.png
&disp=P]1.3.6 Russell 2000 iShares (IWM 15 min).Bearish Rising Wedge.
http://lh3.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SI_x0gXpbkI/AAAAAAAAAR0/OjMzMRuZ3zI/9_thumb%5B1%5D.png
&disp=P]1.4.0 S&P/TSX Composite Index (Daily).The Canada market looks like a Descending Triangle pattern.Be cautious, it may break downward.
http://lh6.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SI_x18Rz4HI/AAAAAAAAAR8/-JU3ZuO2HqI/10_thumb%5B1%5D.png
&disp=P]1.4.3 S&P/TSX Composite Index (15 min).On the 15-min chart the pattern is Bearish Rising Wedge, too.
http://lh5.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SI_x2kVfUbI/AAAAAAAAASE/EaCxaJgMOHg/11_thumb%5B1%5D.png
Posted by Cobra at 9:45 PM 4 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Monday, July 28, 200807/28/2008 Market Recap: No Title
Recently there is a pattern that if one day the market plunges, it probably will not plunge again in the second day.You may verify this on a daily chart of any index (note: it is index, not ETF), in fact the market rarely sells off for two consecutive days.If this pattern is still valid, tomorrow we may see a rebound.Both SPX and INDU are oversold, but Breadth is not although it is not far away from oversold region.
The Russell 3000 Dominant Price-Volume Relationships are 1429 stocks price down volume down, 1012 stocks price down volume up.This means the overall market is actually not oversold yet.
&disp=P]0.0.1 Simple SPY Trading System.STO is oversold, and SPY is pulled back to Fib 61.8.According to the trading rules, long positions should not be initiated today because there is no reversal candle.Note the RHNYA and NYA50R are close to oversold region, this means it is probably fine to try a little bit of long positions providing that the market goes down tomorrow.
http://lh6.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SI6auseRJsI/AAAAAAAAAQc/PG-M3mYLfic/1_thumb%5B1%5D.png
&disp=P]1.2.0 Dow Jones Industrial Average (Daily).Note that STO is at a very low level, and tomorrow $INDU has a high possibility of bouncing up.
http://lh6.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SI6awFTDJZI/AAAAAAAAAQk/M1IumVa07M8/2_thumb%5B1%5D.png
&disp=P]1.1.C TRINQ Trading Setup.Tomorrow QQQQ will likely go up since TRINQ closed above 2.0.
http://lh4.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SI6awyXGO5I/AAAAAAAAAQs/poYfCsvzfAQ/3_thumb%5B1%5D.png
Posted by Cobra at 9:21 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
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Saturday, July 26, 200807/25/2008 Market Recap: Market still needs a pullback especially Nasdaq
&disp=P]1.1.B QQQQ and VXN.Based on the NAMO indicator COMPQ is overbought.VXN has not gone out of the oversold region, and it actually looks like a double bottom which also formed in the begining of April.So I don't think QQQQ has a tradable upside space.
http://lh5.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SIwSFqWSelI/AAAAAAAAAO8/IyiKqq1UUHM/1_thumb%5B1%5D.png
Concerning the broad market $SPX, the CPC at the bottom of &disp=P]2.8.0 CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio is 0.83 at the Friday market close, which is quite close to widely-used market top value 0.8.In other words, the market is too bullish, not bearish, and I don't think $SPX will start a big rally from this point.
http://lh6.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SIwSHGaFIVI/AAAAAAAAAPE/K6AmTwpRLho/2_thumb%5B1%5D.png
&disp=P]3.1.0 US Dollar Index (Daily).Spinning Top and then Doji.I don't consider it as a consolidation pattern, maybe it's likely a reversal one considered that STO has reversed after meeting the resistance line.
http://lh4.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SIwSIbHq-lI/AAAAAAAAAPM/mJ2GiJwQb0M/3_thumb%5B1%5D.png
On the weekly chart &disp=P]3.1.1 US Dollar Index (Weekly) apparently the Bear Flag has broken downward, and now it's testing back the breakout point.RSI on the top of chart seems unable to penetrate 50, which is a typical sign of USD bear market.USD seems getting resistance and having reversed downward at 74.31.The overall picture is breakdown, bounce back, breakdown, bounce back, now breakdown again, and got lower low.So USD is bearish.
http://lh3.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SIwSJZWB7uI/AAAAAAAAAPU/xz1Ue6yj_7Q/4_thumb%5B1%5D.png
&disp=P]3.4.3 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO 60 min).On the chart USO seems being ready to fight back.Note the Bullish Rising Wedge as well as the positive divergence of MACD and RSI indicators.
http://lh5.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SIwSKG9kqJI/AAAAAAAAAPc/2Q9x84AnAiY/5_thumb%5B1%5D.png
&disp=P]5.3.0 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Daily) is bulls' big hope, however the volume is shrinking during three days of dropping, which is a continuation pattern of the downtrend.Note that price down volume down is not bullish, as I said before.If one day the volume spikes as the price goes down, that will be a sign of trend reversal.If you remember in my Thursday report I said Canada market &disp=P]1.4.0 S&P/TSX Composite Index (Daily) would bounce back.The reason is that the volume kept increasing.Again, all I said is a matter of probability, and there are exceptions.Anyway, these volume patterns are fairly popular.
http://lh4.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SIwSL4DMODI/AAAAAAAAAPk/-xGbUQqFh1o/6_thumb%5B1%5D.png
http://lh6.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SIwSNBjtLEI/AAAAAAAAAPs/4p8p4RAg5_I/7_thumb%5B1%5D.png
&disp=P]0.0.1 Simple SPY Trading System.VIX is a bit low and might go out of MA(10) Envelop.NYADV on the other hand is a bit high and might go oversold.Therefore I don't think short-term short is risky.My target is still Fib 50.
http://lh6.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SIwSOeC4gQI/AAAAAAAAAP0/WtdfszarNlw/8_thumb%5B1%5D.png
On &disp=P]1.0.7 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min) you can see that the target of the Descending Triangle is about 124.
http://lh3.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SIwSPf8Fy_I/AAAAAAAAAP8/JAjHgFSeTqU/9_thumb%5B1%5D.png
On &disp=P]1.0.5 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min) we cannot rule out the possibility of Head and Shoulders Top.
http://lh6.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SIwSQLFRc6I/AAAAAAAAAQE/Jff75QiE3J4/10_thumb%5B1%5D.png
&disp=P]1.0.2 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Monthly).July will be over after four trading days.In the bear market -- hopefully no one has different opinion -- the drop of SPX always lasted more than one month.Therefore the candle of July is most likely another red bar.
http://lh3.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SIwSRHlSqQI/AAAAAAAAAQM/ROJt8EmykGE/11_thumb%5B1%5D.png
&disp=P]1.1.A PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 15 min).Bearish Rising Wedge.
&disp=P]1.2.7 Diamonds (DIA 15 min).Descending Triangle.
&disp=P]1.3.6 Russell 2000 iShares (IWM 15 min).Descending Triangle.
&disp=P]3.3.2 streetTRACKS Gold Trust Shares (GLD 60 min).Isn't it a Bearish Rising Wedge?A Head and Shoulders Top seems forming.I am not sure if the gold will rally significantly but it looks like a merely technical rebound considered that the volume Friday slipped down when the price went up on the daily chart &disp=P]3.3.0 streetTRACKS Gold Trust Shares (GLD Daily).
http://lh4.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SIwSR0ZMa6I/AAAAAAAAAQU/Z9MWDLrPH3w/12_thumb%5B1%5D.png
By the way, on &disp=P]1.3.7 Russell 3000 Dominant Price-Volume Relationships1293 stocks were price up volume down on Friday.You may read from the chart that the pattern of recent rallies are mostly price up volume down.In my opinion, this is bearish.
The conclusion is that the pullback is not over yet, and the excuse of further pullback might be the bounce back of commodity.Whether it will be bullish or bearish after the pullback, at the moment I tend to long and hold it to next overbought after this pullback gets oversold.If the market goes up without pullback first, it won't reach too high because it may be overbought easily.Therefore you can think about to short if the market goes up.
Posted by Cobra at 11:14 PM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Thursday, July 24, 200807/24/2008 Market Recap: Evening Star
Okay, the market finally pulled back, and those overbought signals what I was buzzing for two days have also gone neutral.So what will the market do tomorrow, no idea.However, three major indices all showed Evening Star which is bearish, and this candle is so accurate that the confirmation tomorrow is nearly unnecessary.Furthermore, the US dollars may also pullback.As a consequence of all these factors, the pullback is likely continued.
&disp=P]0.0.1 Simple SPY Trading System.As I said yesterday, Bearish Shooting Star and if the market pulled back today this candle got confirmed.Therefore you should have take the short-term short.
On the 15-min intraday chart, there were three nearly perfect chances for day trading (DT).The breakout of Open Range at about 11AM was the best setup today, because there were three inside bar prior to the breakout which has a high probability of success among DT Base and Breakout Setups.An inside bar likes a string which accumulates energy, once it breaks out it is going to be violent, and this is why trading the inside bar breakout is likely more successful.
http://lh4.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SIlkE7KLn4I/AAAAAAAAAOM/G2L1EUNczz4/1_thumb%5B1%5D.png
Afterward there were two times of consolidation.However bears should feel pretty safe because TRIN on &disp=P]2.1.2 NYSE - Tick (5 min) stayed above 1.2 all the time, and more importantly $XJY was rising the whole day.So you have no reason to fear the trend reversal.
http://lh4.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SIlkFldgSQI/AAAAAAAAAOU/PkJTJS0R0Vs/2_thumb%5B1%5D.png
When the market was about to close, you might lock profit, or keep your positions because the Evening Star on the daily chart has a higher chance of further down.The downside target is at Fib 50, about 124.48.
http://lh3.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SIlkGV-AxxI/AAAAAAAAAOc/As_I20CjETs/3_thumb%5B1%5D.png
On the other hand, swing traders don't need to concern the open range breakout.Once the yesterday low was broken, they should feel safe to short.
&disp=P]1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily).It's an Evening Star.The target is likely Fib 50 at 2250.But on &disp=P]0.0.8 TRINQ Trading Setup TRINQ is over 2.0 today, which means QQQQ may go up tomorrow.I don't know which one is more likely.Possibly tomorrow is a small rally since Evening Star doesn't mean the next day will be down for sure, it can mean the trend in the next few days is downward.
http://lh5.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SIlkHGtPKpI/AAAAAAAAAOk/rzp-4lCf0Gc/4_thumb%5B1%5D.png
&disp=P]1.2.0 Dow Jones Industrial Average (Daily).Evening Star.The possible target is Fib 50 at 11261.
&disp=P]1.4.0 S&P/TSX Composite Index (Daily).The Canada market has plunged for three days and the volume was increasing, which look a bit like capitulation.So I think it may bounce back.
&disp=P]1.5.0 Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (Daily).It looks bullish, and possibly a Head and Shoulders Bottom.Of course, the pattern isn't valid before the neckline is broken.
&disp=P]1.6.0 Hong Kong Hang Seng (Daily).Note the resistance on STO and RSI(14) indicators.
&disp=P]3.0.0 10Y T-Bill Yield.It is a Bearish Abandon Baby and will possibly go down for a while.This is very important because its downside movement means the money flows to the bond market, so it is bearish to the stock market.Its down also indicates the demand for the US treasury bill is weak which will cause the depreciate of US dollars, which will in turn cause the appreciation of Japanese Yen.As a result the Carry Trade unwinds, and this is bearish to the stock market.
http://lh5.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SIlkHlipBWI/AAAAAAAAAOs/-aGuTPAWhf0/5_thumb%5B1%5D.png
&disp=P]3.1.0 US Dollar Index (Daily).It's a Spinning Top, so the trend may reverse.In addition note the resistance on the STO, so it may go down.
&disp=P]3.2.3 US Dollar/Japanese Yen Ratio.If the USD goes down, watch this chart.If it cannot pass the resistance, the Carry Trade will unwind and the market may go down as well.
http://lh5.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SIlkIQDal_I/AAAAAAAAAO0/YBShMLt2vhQ/6_thumb%5B1%5D.png
Posted by Cobra at 10:26 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Wednesday, July 23, 200807/23/2008 Market Recap: Overbought Overbought
Market is overbought and due for pullback.My trading rule is that, as I said before, no taking new long positions when the market is overbought.If the market keeps going up and overbought, I watch.Again, this is a matter of probability, and I do not take chance of the low probability of that the market could be overbought and deeper overbought.If you wonder why the market didn't bounce back when it kept oversold a few days ago, you may read the chart &disp=P]1.0.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Daily) and notice that the market haven't gone down for three consecutive down days except for those three days just prior to the big V-turn.On the other hand, so far we have seen six up days on &disp=P]0.0.1 Simple SPY Trading System.Well, there is no market in this world which goes up only and never pulls back.
&disp=P]0.0.1 Simple SPY Trading System.Today it is a Bearish Shooting Star pattern, considering those overbought signals, the setup is a possible short-term short.If we do not see a red candle to confirm the setup, we'd better wait.Note the NYSI signal of mid-term long, as I said yesterday, it is your decision to initiate the long position in the morning or wait for the pullback like me.I have had long positions for hedging, so I do not rush besides aforementioned reason (no new long when overbought).
http://lh4.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SIgBxMRnJLI/AAAAAAAAANk/41cCM8Ulcpk/1_thumb%5B1%5D.png
&disp=P]1.3.0 Russell 2000 iShares (IWM Daily).It has gone up for six consecutive days and retraced to Fib 61.8.MA(200) is being tested at the moment.
http://lh3.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SIgBzoPgJbI/AAAAAAAAANs/XwivbzB1U4c/2_thumb%5B1%5D.png
&disp=P]2.2.1 NYSE McClellan Oscillator.Another overbought signal today, and the position is pretty high.
http://lh3.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SIgB0apVFxI/AAAAAAAAAN0/F_38GJ1amT4/3_thumb%5B1%5D.png
&disp=P]3.4.1 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO Daily).The oil has retraced to Fib 38.2.At the moment it is unclear where the target is.
http://lh5.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SIgB22nJp2I/AAAAAAAAAN8/JlvrZHuJDt0/4_thumb%5B1%5D.png
&disp=P]5.3.0 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Daily).It failed to test MA(50) line and formed a reversal candle.Within such a short period of six days, it has reclaimed the loss in the past two months.How amazing it is!
http://lh4.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SIgB3za4sHI/AAAAAAAAAOE/ierwHd0yYNw/5_thumb%5B1%5D.png
Posted by Cobra at 9:15 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
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Tuesday, July 22, 200807/22/2008 Market Recap: Market Overbought
Today based on &disp=P]0.0.1 Simple SPY Trading System the plan was short-term short.Someone asked me yesterday, what should we do if the market gapped down today?My answer was to wait for the gap being filled at about 10:30am, then watch &disp=P]2.1.2 NYSE - Tick (5 min) and see if TRIN stayed above 1.2, at the same time $XJY should go up.However today TRIN was quite bearish all the time, and $XJY kept falling.This was against the short signal until the market closed, and a huge Bullish Engulf pattern was formed.Therefore the sell signal was not confirmed today, and we have to wait for the next chance.Concerning the $XJY confirmation, I find that the market will normally close in green if $XJY goes down.This phenomena is valid recently but may not hold forever.
http://lh4.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SIbCCgR3ryI/AAAAAAAAAMY/vr2sPpXPCCQ/1_thumb%5B1%5D.png
Today we got mid-term buy signal.On &disp=P]0.0.0 Signal Watch and Daily Highlights needed mid-term signals on the left side of the chart are all in green, including my favorite signal &disp=P]2.2.0 NYSE McClellan Chart.
http://lh6.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SIbCDcAyAVI/AAAAAAAAAMg/qXBqi9zwBVc/2_thumb%5B1%5D.png
As a result of this, &disp=P]0.0.1 Simple SPY Trading System says it's time to close mid-term short, and open mid-term long.However there are some overbought signals on the chart which means the market is due for pullback.So you have to make a decision whether to close mid-term short and open mid-term long after a pullback OR close short / open long tomorrow morning.For myself, I do not open long positions when the market is overbought.All signals are about probability, TA is not 100% accurate, but the spirit of TA is to bet the high probability setups, not worry about "this time may be different".When I say the market is due for pullback in the near term, I mean the market has a higher probability of pullback than rally.Whenever you believe this time is different and the signals might be wrong, please feel free to go ahead.
http://lh3.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SIbCEbObu5I/AAAAAAAAAMo/Yl8w58CqV_M/3_thumb%5B1%5D.png
&disp=P]1.0.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Daily).Similar with other indices, it is overbought but MACD is confirmed buy signal.Also note the all black buy signal on the bottom of the chart.
http://lh3.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SIbCFiCam_I/AAAAAAAAAMw/3vK3R4-DERc/4_thumb%5B1%5D.png
&disp=P]1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily).It is testing the downtrend line.
&disp=P]1.1.6 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ Daily).It is funny that VXN MA(10) Envelope is oversold.What does this mean?fall further down?At least the upside space is not much.
http://lh6.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SIbCHOyPC4I/AAAAAAAAAM4/Nc8Tsg88Aqk/5_thumb%5B1%5D.png
&disp=P]1.2.1 Dow Jones Industrial Average (Weekly).$INDU is testing back the trendline, which so called kill channel goodbye.
http://lh5.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SIbCHwY7eoI/AAAAAAAAANA/t10Foivok9o/6_thumb%5B1%5D.png
&disp=P]1.2.7 Diamonds (DIA 15 min).The negative divergence of RSI is obvious on the 15-min intraday chart.But take the notice that the divergence does not mean immediate pullback, it usually has to be confirmed by other signals.
&disp=P]2.0.0 Volatility Index - NYSE (Daily).It is extremely oversold.Note that the breakout of MA(10) Envelop is the greatest since the beginning of this year.The probability of the market pullback is very high.
http://lh3.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SIbCJImwyII/AAAAAAAAANI/RFBFDy29Jz8/7_thumb%5B1%5D.png
&disp=P]2.4.2 NYSE - Issues Advancing.Overbought on the chart also means pullback.Note that the portion it extends into the overbought region is the greatest in the year, and overbought/oversold of this signal has been fairly accurate in the past.(this time might be an exception, who knows?)
http://lh6.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SIbCKD3fDaI/AAAAAAAAANU/wPwbuCj_8a4/8_thumb%5B1%5D.png
&disp=P]3.3.0 streetTRACKS Gold Trust Shares (GLD Daily).It broke the support, so I closed my position.
&disp=P]3.4.3 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO 60 min).MACD and RSI have a little bit positive divergence.
&disp=P]5.3.0 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Daily).It is right on the Fib 50 line at where the pullback usually finishes.Tomorrow MA(50) will be tested, which is very important.
http://lh5.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SIbCLwRv-cI/AAAAAAAAANc/RK-VJqzUOJk/9_thumb%5B1%5D.png
Posted by Cobra at 10:31 PM 1 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Monday, July 21, 200807/21/2008 Market Recap: Lack of Commitment
Today the main problem is the volume has dried up.Indices have been going up for four days but the volume keeps shrinking, which is a highly bearish pattern and likely causes a reversal.In addition, &disp=P]5.2.0 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE Daily) and &disp=P]5.6.0 Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB Daily) rallied significantly while &disp=P]5.3.0 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Daily) did not although some decent ER released in the morning, and this usually means the rally will not last long.Furthermore, on &disp=P]1.3.7 Russell 3000 Dominant Price-Volume Relationships the dominant price-volume relationships are 1066 stocks were price up volume down, which is again very bearish.
Therefore, the market is due for pullback tomorrow.
&disp=P]0.0.1 Simple SPY Trading System.Note the bearish volume pattern, the black candle which has a high chance of reversal, and the overbought of RSI and STO indicators, as well as the oversold VIX/MA(10) at the bottom of the chart, all these signals are saying short-term short.
http://lh6.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SIVheBXIgMI/AAAAAAAAALo/40ZQTlk6wmE/1_thumb%5B1%5D.png
&disp=P]1.0.7 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min).On the 15-min intraday chart, the Descending Triangle is targeting 124.56.By the way, the Ascending Triangle pattern mentioned yesterday indeed broke out upward but didn't reach the projected target.In fact the pattern on the intraday charts are quite reliable.Compared with technical indicators, chart patterns are more accurate in my opinion.
http://lh5.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SIVhgYaiC1I/AAAAAAAAALw/jFk5s5WacyE/2_thumb%5B1%5D.png
&disp=P]1.2.7 Diamonds (DIA 15 min).The Descending Triangle is targeting 112.93.
&disp=P]1.3.0 Russell 2000 iShares (IWM Daily).Overbought after four days of rally, volume is decreasing, very bearish.On &disp=P]1.3.6 Russell 2000 iShares (IWM 15 min), the bearish Rising Wedge indicates a possible pullback.
&disp=P]1.4.0 S&P/TSX Composite Index (Daily), bearish Rising Wedge.&disp=P]1.4.2 S&P/TSX Composite Index (60 min), &disp=P]1.4.3 S&P/TSX Composite Index (15 min), on both the 60-min and 15-min chart, the bearish Rising Wedge patterns are clear.In addition, MACD on the 15-min chart shows negative divergence.So the Canada market is due for pullback, too.
http://lh6.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SIVhhqd-3vI/AAAAAAAAAL4/YK44IqDbC1Y/3_thumb%5B1%5D.png
&disp=P]2.0.0 Volatility Index - NYSE (Daily).VIX is extremely oversold.It is now testing MA(200), also note the MA(10) envelope, which has entered into the region of mid-term oversold.Take further notice at the locations where VIX broke MA(10) envelope (marked by red circles), the latest oversold condition is quite significant.Therefore, if VIX drops further tomorrow, no matter the market goes up or down,it is an excellent chance to initiate short positions.Regardless how bullish the market is in the near term, remember that the primary trend is down.Short positions based on such a good signal has a high probability of success.
http://lh4.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SIVhjrmcSDI/AAAAAAAAAMA/UG0Jp7bk6po/4_thumb%5B1%5D.png
&disp=P]3.2.0 Japanese Yen (Daily).It is supported by MA(200).The rally of Yen means the plunge of the stock market because of unwind carry trade.&disp=P]3.2.3 US Dollar/Japanese Yen Ratio, note that the ratio has bounced back by the resistance, and this is very bearish to the stock market.
http://lh4.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SIVhktd01HI/AAAAAAAAAMI/-_8NbDEdqNA/5_thumb%5B1%5D.png
&disp=P]3.3.0 streetTRACKS Gold Trust Shares (GLD Daily).The gold bounced up from the support.It is a good entry-point.
&disp=P]3.4.3 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO 60 min).Here is the only good news for bulls -- the oil is getting a resistance at the moment.
&disp=P]5.3.0 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Daily).Overbought, and black candle, plus bearish up volume.Very bearish.
http://lh5.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SIVhmh8lkvI/AAAAAAAAAMQ/Lfy6ZaaCKio/6_thumb%5B1%5D.png
Posted by Cobra at 9:27 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Saturday, July 19, 200807/18/2008 Market Recap: Market might pull back, the Tuesday's low holds the key
Last Friday many charts are saying the market is due for pullback, and I am wondering if they are too perfect to be correct. Anyway, let me present all charts here and you will see whether they seem reasonable or not.
If indeed a pullback happens, the Tuesday low is the key to watch. On the following chart, 0.0.3 INDU leads the Markets, my target has not reached yet since COMPQ is not following INDU to break the March low. Note the blue circles on the chart: while the market is bottoming out, INDU always makes a higher low when SPX and COMPQ is still lower low. Therefore my prediction is that maybe the market will test the Tuesday low, and COMPQ will very likely break it and even break the March low, INDU will however hold the Tuesday low. At the time being, I am not aware of anything worse than banks' collapse which could cause the market's plummet to the Tuesday low. If next week the market drops and makes higher lows, it will be a good opportunity to buy dip.
http://lh5.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SILOjcbFhNI/AAAAAAAAAJo/YxRWPL9GrhI/1_thumb%5B1%5D.png
Here is another reason of supporting COMPQ to break the Tuesday low. Note the green circles marked at the bottom of following chart, 1.0.1 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly), such heavy volumes looks like a bottom pattern. However the volumes on the next chart, 1.1.2 Nasdaq Composite (Weekly) (marked with green circles), do not look heavy enough compared with INDU chart. So it seems $COMPQ will plunge eventually. We will know whether this becomes true or not once the AAPL earning report is released after the market closes.
http://lh4.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SILOkTJImLI/AAAAAAAAAJw/AyYP1v12WnM/2_thumb%5B1%5D.png
http://lh4.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SILOlK7NkiI/AAAAAAAAAJ4/qw2mHPLu8zo/3_thumb%5B1%5D.png
1.0.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Daily), 1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily), 1.2.0 Dow Jones Industrial Average (Daily): all STO indicators are overbought.
0.0.1 Simple SPY Trading System, another black candlestick. As I said before, this kind of black candlestick has a chance of reversal. Additionally considering overbought RSI and STO, one should close the short-term long positions.
http://lh3.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SILOmL2o-fI/AAAAAAAAAKA/V0pezI6YckQ/4_thumb%5B1%5D.png
1.1.6 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ Daily). QQQQ is not overbought, but the current pattern is a Bearish Evening Star which is fairly reliable. Therefore QQQQ will likely drop down further.
http://lh5.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SILOnFoGBDI/AAAAAAAAAKI/jkM3u_GXou4/5_thumb%5B1%5D.png
1.1.A PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 15 min). On the 15-min intraday chart, QQQQ has broken downward the Descending Triangle, which means it will go further down on Monday.
http://lh6.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SILOn51MgYI/AAAAAAAAAKQ/LBBvE4IxtvE/6_thumb%5B1%5D.png
1.3.0 Russell 2000 iShares (IWM Daily). It is overbought. Just like 1.0.0, a black candlestick has a higher chance of reversal. So very possibly IWM will dip down Monday.
1.4.0 S&P/TSX Composite Index (Daily). A black candlestick also shows up in the Canada market chart. Again, it means pullback. On the 60-min intraday chart, 1.4.2 S&P/TSX Composite Index (60 min), RSI is testing the resistance which is another reason of pullback.
2.0.0 Volatility Index - NYSE (Daily). VIX is right on the support, and STO is oversold. In the past STO will reverse at the current level, furthermore RSI(14) is also on the support, so VIX will possibly head up which means the market will pull back.
http://lh6.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SILOptnVAUI/AAAAAAAAAKY/1OH0WGxQ7Uo/7_thumb%5B1%5D.png
3.0.3 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund iShares (TLT Daily). Bond has been plummeting for four consecutive days, and it is now extremely oversold and due for a rebound. Therefore the money will flow into the bond market and will possibly drag down the stock market.
3.1.0 US Dollar Index (Daily). In the past few days USD seemed a bit strong but now it shows a Bearish Rising Wedge. The resistance holds firmly, so USD may turn south which is bearish to the stock market.
http://lh3.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SILOq7ZNS_I/AAAAAAAAAKg/tPWNCsiJ3L8/8_thumb%5B1%5D.png
3.4.1 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO Daily). It is oversold and due for a rebound, which is bearish for the stock market.
5.1.0 Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY Daily). XLY is one of leading sectors in this rally during the past few days. Now it is overbought and closed at the Fib 38.2%, plus the Spinning Top pattern, all three factors are indicating a possibility of pullback.
http://lh5.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SILOsPwO3XI/AAAAAAAAAKo/m496qhL-dYY/9_thumb%5B1%5D.png
5.3.0 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Daily). The most important and the leading sector in the rally is now overbought. In the past the black candlestick almost always means reversal. And it closed at Fib 38.2%, at where the rebound often finishes.
http://lh4.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SILOtViMmkI/AAAAAAAAAKw/pupt_w_MIv8/10_thumb%5B1%5D.png
As a summary, so many signals are indicating the market is due for pullback. The only two charts which support the further rally are 1.0.7 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min) and 1.2.7 Diamonds (DIA 15 min)的Ascending Triangle. However the Ascending Triangle are dual-directional, both upside and downside breakouts are possible. Therefore my conclusion is the market is due for pullback next Monday.
Posted by Cobra at 10:35 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
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Thursday, July 17, 200807/17/2008 Market Recap: A good follow-through rally, but ...
Today we have seen a convincing follow-through rally with good volume. Both 2.2.1 NYSE McClellan Oscillator and 2.9.0 S&P 500 Bullish Precent Index show a buy signal, so the market condition is improving, which is shown by those bullish signals in the following chart 0.0.0 Signal Watch and Daily Highlights. However we may see a pullback soon, and if the Tuesday low holds then we will confirm the market has indeed bottomed. If otherwise, there will be two possibilities depending on how deep the pullback is. I will explain it later.
http://lh6.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SIAc_TFQcqI/AAAAAAAAAIo/fze8lFRhx0Y/1_thumb%5B1%5D.png
Why will the market pull back tomorrow? Here are two reasons:
[*]Russell 3000 Dominant Price-Volume Relationships were very bearish yesterday. As I explained, the market would drop as late as the third trading day according to the historical data, which meant this Friday. Furthermore, the price-volume relationship was not very bullish today, 1095 stocks were price up volume up which is good, but 1029 stocks were price up volume down. So actually today's market was not that bullish as it sounds.[*]TRIN worried me today because it stayed above 1 (bearish threshold value) almost all the time. My feeling is that today's rally might lack of commitment, short covering might have played an important role. By the way, on the chart 2.8.0 CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio, $CPC closed at 0.86 which is very bullish. In fact this value is fairly close to over-bullish or even bearish value of 0.8. I am not sure whether it is good if this signal keeps going down.
http://lh4.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SIAdAOqftvI/AAAAAAAAAIw/0dZFN2NwD5U/2_thumb%5B1%5D.png0.0.1 Simple SPY Trading System. The candlestick today is a Doji which hints a trend reversal. You may refer to 8.1.0 Small Body Bar Trading Rule for the trading rule in this case.
http://lh6.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SIAdBUxcSRI/AAAAAAAAAJQ/lA6ZeX7QRDI/3_thumb%5B2%5D.png
http://lh3.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SIAdCQIV-BI/AAAAAAAAAJY/U0fkf0o1vGo/4_thumb%5B1%5D.png
1.0.7 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min), 1.1.A PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 15 min), 1.2.7 Diamonds (DIA 15 min), 1.3.6 Russell 2000 iShares (IWM 15 min). The rally in the last trading hours caused the negative divergence of MACD and RSI indicators. This means the momentum is weakened and the market will likely pull back tomorrow.
http://lh3.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SIAdDcpBXJI/AAAAAAAAAJg/V7ZOcoPd56U/5_thumb%5B1%5D.png
1.4.0 S&P/TSX Composite Index (Daily) It seems be testing back the broken symmetric triangle pattern. Canada market will drop down further if the oil price is descending.
3.4.1 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO Daily). It is oversold, and the oil price may bounce back, and then provide a good excuse for the pullback of the stock market.
About my positions and how to trade safely: I think this information may be helpful for you, especially those inexperienced traders. Since last week, I have been reducing the short positions. Now I am still holding a small number of mid-term short positions based on 1.0.0 NYSI signal. In case the market rallies sharply due to overbought technical indicators, I am also holding some long positions to hedge the upside risk. By following TA signals, usually one cannot catch the top or bottom precisely, this is because the market always acts prior to TA signals. Please be advised that missing an rally is fine: if the rally is too short, it doesn't matter even you miss it; if the rally is tradable then it will likely last for a few weeks or even months, in this case you will have plenty of time to get in comfortably. In my opinion, it is better to keep the stock trading profitable and steadily in the long run, instead of taking the risk to catch the top or bottom.
Posted by Cobra at 9:33 PM 2 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Wednesday, July 16, 200807/16/2008 Market Recap: Huge rally, but I'm not convinced
The market soared with a huge gain at the end of today, and many bulls are quite excited.However I am not convinced because of following two reasons:
1). 1.3.7 Russell 3000 Dominant Price-Volume Relationships.Today 1517 stocks were price up volume down, which is considered the most bearish price-volume pattern.For tracking the relationship between up/down of price/volume and the market direction, a technical indicator is designed and so far it works quite well.This indicator, as shown in the following chart, says that as late as the day after tomorrow the market will drop.You may read those comments in red color and see if more than 1400 stocks were price up volume down, how big the probability of seeing a drop in the following trading days was.
http://lh5.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SH7Tyx73ogI/AAAAAAAAAH4/UGDedK3LyAw/1_thumb%5B1%5D.png
2). 0.0.8 TRINQ Trading Setup.It was over-bullish today because TRINQ was below than 0.3 during most trading hours.As you may know, if TRINQ closes below 0.6 then the next day may go down with the probability of 80%.Yesterday it was below 0.6, today the market disproved the prediction, how likely the setup is wrong again tomorrow?Furthermore, TICKQ has an obvious discrepancy with bullish TRINQ and this looks fishy, as you can see in the following chart.
http://lh5.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SH7Tzpj4LYI/AAAAAAAAAIA/JnyY4DEMDWc/2_thumb%5B2%5D.png
http://lh6.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SH7T0b0imiI/AAAAAAAAAII/s6fmdHYIwzg/3_thumb%5B1%5D.png
Based on the aforementioned analysis, I am not convinced.
0.0.1 Simple SPY Trading System gives a short-term buy signal based on the bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern and two oversold breadth signals.However, based on previous explanation I doubt SPY will break above the resistance at 126 tomorrow, in other words, the profit is marginal.Therefore, this short term signal is for aggressive traders only.A better approach may be: wait at 126, if SPY cannot pass it over, kick it back.My prediction at the moment is, the market will have at least one more pullback, and once the drop-down reaches certain position it will likely be clear whether we have seen the bottom.I will show evidence to you later, please be patient for now.
http://lh4.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SH7T1UMciLI/AAAAAAAAAIQ/gGb4rJmMoso/4_thumb%5B1%5D.png
1.0.5 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min), &disp=P]1.1.8 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 60 min), &disp=P]1.2.3 Diamonds (DIA 60 min), &disp=P]1.3.2 Russell 2000 iShares (IWM 60 min).RSI is facing with a resistance on these 60 min charts.Once RSI passes the resistance tomorrow, it will be overbought.Again, I doubt if SPY can go above 126.
http://lh3.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SH7T2OEsqUI/AAAAAAAAAIY/azv1VyqmGC0/5_thumb%5B1%5D.png
1.4.2 S&P/TSX Composite Index (60 min).This is about Canada market.Breakdown, pullback, will it make a U-turn tomorrow?
http://lh6.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SH7T2v8d3jI/AAAAAAAAAIg/L5iKpLHjWW4/6_thumb%5B1%5D.png
&disp=P]5.3.0 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Daily).It is now at the resistance.Are you worrying about your bank deposits?Or money with brokers?By the way, I just got a mail that E*TRADE Canada has been sold to Scotia Bank, thank God!I don't believe XLF will be simply pushed up.Do not convince me XLF has priced in all those troubles if you still have concerns with your money in the banks.
&disp=P]3.4.1 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO Daily).It dropped but the MA(50) still holds.On &disp=P]3.4.3 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO 60 min) you will see the gap support.By the way, gaps aren't there for being filled, they often provide support or resistance.
Posted by Cobra at 10:08 PM 1 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Tuesday, July 15, 200807/15/2008 Market Recap: Week US$ does no good to the stock market
Firstly, I am sorry to tell you that today does not look like a reversal day.Although the steady rally in the middle of the day was a bit alike, the selling off near the end of trading hours confirmed my feeling that it is not.Moreover, the plummet in the early morning was not deep enough to panic the traders.In addition, I did not get a notification from StockCharts Realtime which informs customers to minimize the use of 15-second auto fresh.Again, on the reversal day the rally will be steady and like a wave, not those rapid ones in these days which scare many bears.
3.1.0 US Dollar Index (Daily).Today the US dollar was weak and almost broke the head and shoulders top.On 3.2.0 Japanese Yen (Daily) the resistance has been broken and this caused 3.2.3 US Dollar/Japanese Yen Ratio broke downward.As you can see from the following chart, where the black/red lines denotes $USD:$XJY and the green lines denotes the market, Yen outperforms USD is bearish to the market.To make it even worse, the ratio is just started to drop down!
http://lh5.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SH2KAcHGpRI/AAAAAAAAAHI/o7AsaSBE8Zk/1_thumb%5B1%5D.png
3.2.4 Yen RSI and the Market Bottom.If the US dollar is continuously weakening,the market may not be bottomed out before the RSI(14) of Yen is deeply oversold.Pay attention to the relationship between the RSI (black line) and the market (green line).
http://lh6.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SH2KA95FHxI/AAAAAAAAAHQ/0pvJbQBBz04/2_thumb%5B1%5D.png
0.0.8 TRINQ Trading Setup.The probability of QQQQ going down tomorrow is about 80%, as shown TRINQ which closed below 0.6.In my opinion, this trading setup is fairly accurate.
http://lh4.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SH2KBn2AkII/AAAAAAAAAHY/3R8tmlGTOYc/3_thumb%5B1%5D.png
1.2.1 Dow Jones Industrial Average (weekly).An important and significant support region has been broken today.Well, the breakout does not look extremely obvious so let's see how it goes tomorrow.
http://lh5.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SH2KCuklQvI/AAAAAAAAAHg/FCBkGc6nJek/4_thumb%5B1%5D.png
1.0.7 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min), 1.2.7 Diamonds (DIA 15 min), 1.3.6 Russell 2000 iShares (IWM 15 min).Tomorrow they will either go up or reverse in the mid-day.Note that the resistance on the RSI has been successfully validated several times.
http://lh4.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SH2KDSMdMpI/AAAAAAAAAHo/DXMDIjmF-cw/5_thumb%5B1%5D.png
1.4.0 S&P/TSX Composite Index (Daily).The symmetric triangle pattern on the Canadian market was broken.1.4.2 S&P/TSX Composite Index (60 min), 60-min chart has nothing new but breakdown, test back breakout point, and fall down again.
3.4.1 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO Daily).The oil plummeted, but closed on the trend support.3.4.3 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO 60 min), that consolidation region at the left side should provide a strong support, tomorrow we will see.
3.3.0 streetTRACK Gold Trust Shares (GLD Daily).The gold is overbought.Another black candle today, which has relatively high probability of pullback.Gold is good, but I've never touched it and don't know how it feels ;-)
http://lh5.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SH2KEXsS4pI/AAAAAAAAAHw/PAreGHOg3zo/6_thumb%5B1%5D.png
Posted by Cobra at 10:41 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
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Monday, July 14, 200807/14/2008 Market Recap: No Hopes as long as banks keep falling
I don't have much to say today.If you have some time you may check out TK's video.My feeling is similar with his, i.e. quite bearish to the market, although many technical indicators have shown that the market has deeply oversold.Uncertainty is what most investors dislike, given the situation that no one knows how many regional banks could go bankrupt, investors are reluctant to put their money into the market.As a result of this, I doubt if we could see any sustainable rally in the near term.Of course, since so much uncertainty is ahead of us, I would not be surprised if the opposite thing happened.Should you wish to get further insight, you may like to read this article concerning the issue of regional banks, basically those highly risky banks are mostly located at those regions where the housing price skyrocketed.
The following chart shows the Bank Index which is almost free falling.The current price level is in the region where $BKX went up quickly without much consolidation, the support will be close to none.
http://lh4.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SHwaWM6nyGI/AAAAAAAAAGI/zDNPLFd4qCU/1_thumb%5B1%5D.png
Here is XLF.Not so far from the all time low, and there is no reason it will not reach there.(Note: I checked other data sources and it seems now it is The all time low).
http://lh3.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SHwaWW-VOkI/AAAAAAAAAGY/moKe0e-ccUI/2_thumb%5B1%5D.png
Summary: as J. Murphy reported today, as has been suggested herein many times, the market decline is likely to continue until the financial sector stabilizes.So far, there's no sign of that happening.
You may ask, what will it happen tomorrow?I am sorry to tell you that most likely falling down continues.Reasons are two:
[*]XLE and XLB were the strongest two sectors to support the market today.This doesn't sound good because both are inflation related.Another two "bullish" sectors were XLP and XLV which are so called defensive sectors.This means the money fled to safety, no good.
http://lh6.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SHwaW1P6IYI/AAAAAAAAAGg/1_uOqUWsD5o/3_thumb%5B1%5D.png[*]Concerning the Russell 3000 dominant price-volume relationships, 1491 stocks were price down volume down, which means no panic, in other words, this is a continuation pattern.1.0.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Daily), 1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily), 1.1.6 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ Daily), 1.2.0 Dow Jones Industrial Average (Daily).The candlestick patterns on those major indices are quite bearish today, and the only hope is that the last Friday low still holds.
2.0.0 Volatility Index - NYSE (Daily).Now it is overbought, and RSI(14) is sitting at the key resistance, so it may pull back.As aforementioned analysis points out, I am not sure if the market will rally on the pullback of VIX.
2.0.2 Volatility Index 30-day/90-day Ratio.Excellent! It has spiked into a bullish region.However, the trend of the market may not reverse before this signal reaches an all time high.
http://lh3.ggpht.com/cobrasmarketview/SHwaXWG1LYI/AAAAAAAAAGo/dFCRIX0BnoY/4_thumb%5B1%5D.png
3.3.0 StreetTRACKS Gold Trust Shares (GLD Daily).Now it is overbought.
Posted by Cobra at 8:32 PM 1 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Sunday, July 13, 200807/11/2008 Market Recap: Close, but not yet
Following are a few charts which may tell us whether or not the market has bottomed out.
0.0.5 Market Bottomed? Although “NYSE New Low” looks promising, other signals are not confirmed yet.
http://bp0.blogger.com/_APmrYvpA45s/SHpyUVo7P9I/AAAAAAAAAD8/fsXLJJgluWM/s320/11jul2008-1.png
2.0.2 Volatility Index 30-day/90-day Ratio. The market is approaching a bottom, but not really there yet.
http://bp0.blogger.com/_APmrYvpA45s/SHpyavjC9YI/AAAAAAAAAEE/0yvI9vHf4iM/s320/11jul2008-2.png
2.3.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume. Compared with the last few bottoms, currently this signal is still far from being confirmed.
http://bp3.blogger.com/_APmrYvpA45s/SHpyfXcerrI/AAAAAAAAAEM/3Xb8Hz1kuVg/s320/11jul2008-3.png
1.0.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (daily). Note that the unusually heavy volume on last Friday has shown an early sign of coming bottom. Take further notice at the support and resistance trend lines on the chart, which are considered as fences of bulls and bears respectively, and the near term direction of the market will be driven by how bulls and bears fight around these two fences.
http://bp0.blogger.com/_APmrYvpA45s/SHpymOEkcuI/AAAAAAAAAEU/OOFTt75B0SI/s320/11jul2008-4.png
1.0.1 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly), 1.0.2 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Monthly): $SPX is near important supports. On the monthly chart, a 20-year long term trend line is right below the current position of $SPX.
1.2.1 Dow Jones Industrial Average (Weekly). $INDU will meet significant resistance at the consolidation region below the current level if the falling continues.
http://bp1.blogger.com/_APmrYvpA45s/SHpyrGmVAoI/AAAAAAAAAEc/aIRrxwML734/s320/11jul2008-5.png
1.0.5 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min), 1.1.8 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 60 min), both MACD and RSI show positive divergence. Note that a bullish falling wedge pattern is formed on the QQQQ chart.
Conclusion: the market may fall further down but the downside space is limited. Furthermore, it is rumored that the government might intervene at certain point. Therefore a rebound can be expected. The sharp reversal during the trading hours last Friday has also warned bears that the bear market rebound could be violent – lock your profit now and reduce your short-side positions. No one can guarantee to seize the market bottom and top precisely, and the risk control is always important.
Despite of the above conclusion that a tradable bottom is coming, I do have two doubts as follows.
0.0.4 QQQQ Outperforms SPY Good Sign? The outperform of QQQQ is still an open question for me, and I have no idea how the market will finally resolve it.
http://bp0.blogger.com/_APmrYvpA45s/SHpyvu9qcpI/AAAAAAAAAEk/WIdbNJ4VxTA/s320/11jul2008-6.png
3.1.0 US Dollar Index (daily). So many things have happened and are happening as everyone knows, and the cost of boosting the market confidence will be huge, but where will the money come from? The US dollar is sitting at the key support after sharp falling last Friday. Once the support is broken, the head and shoulders pattern will be formed and the target will be a historical low level of 69.33, which is obviously bearish to the entire stock market.
http://bp3.blogger.com/_APmrYvpA45s/SHpyzE4P4uI/AAAAAAAAAEs/x23hPg6jFow/s320/11jul2008-7.png
Let us wait until the next week and see how the market answers.
0.0.8 TRINQ Trading Setup. The value of TRINQ on last Friday was greater than 2.0, and this indicates that the probability of QQQQ’s rally on Monday is about 80%.
1.4.0 S&P/TSX Composite Index (Daily). The symmetrical triangle pattern formed in the Canada market implies a 75% probability of further down. This pattern is clearer on the 15-min intraday chart, 1.4.3 S&P/TSX Composite Index (15 min).
3.3.0 streetTRACKS Gold Trust Shares (GLD Daily). It has broken out last Friday. The reversal candle may cause near term pull back, which in my opinion is an excellent opportunity of initiating a position.
3.0.3 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund iShares (TLT Daily). The bond sharply sold off last Friday. The common understanding is that the money in the stock market would flow to bond market and cause the rally consequently -- this is why the selling off of the bond is unusual. At the moment I am not sure whether it is caused by anticipation of government’s massively bond issuing, or expectation of inflation going up.
3.0.8 Projected Fed Rate. Rate cut again? It is unbelieveable. However the Fed rate will align with the number on this chart eventually. Let’s see how it goes this time.
http://bp0.blogger.com/_APmrYvpA45s/SHpy3qta3MI/AAAAAAAAAE0/yzbSZDLnm-s/s320/11jul2008-8.png
Posted by Cobra at 2:22 PM 1 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
Thursday, July 10, 200807/10/2008 Market Recap (Orderly Retreat)
http://bp3.blogger.com/_APmrYvpA45s/SHa9y-6YOiI/AAAAAAAAAD0/JF5Q_cUIJQc/s320/SPX.png
I still don't see the bottom. Forget all the arguments about whether VIX must spike or not bofore market bottoms, let's just use a very simple standard: take a look at chart 1.0.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index, so far I don't see any sell off lasting 3 days in a row. This is an orderly retreat, I'd be very surprised if the market is bottomed from here.
5.2.0 Energy Select Sector SPDR, up 3.07% today, wow, but not good for the overall market.
http://bp2.blogger.com/_APmrYvpA45s/SHa8ISmV5aI/AAAAAAAAADs/vK1mPh1iXLQ/s320/TRINQ.png
0.0.8 TRINQ Trading Setup
80% chances QQQQ will close down tomorrow.
Posted by Cobra at 6:48 PM 0 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
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Monday, July 7, 200807/07/2008 Market Recap (TRINQ Trading Setup)
Check chart 0.0.0 Signal Watch and Daily Highlights, Market is very oversold, don't know when it will rebound. If a rebound happens, it's just a rebound, I still don't see any signs of bottom yet.
Only one chart today:
http://bp3.blogger.com/_APmrYvpA45s/SHLD860MneI/AAAAAAAAADU/xOjRS_qldEc/s320/TRINQandQQQQ.png
Posted by Cobra at 6:31 PM 3 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
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Saturday, July 5, 2008My View on TSX (Canadian Stock Market)
My view on TSX has only 2 charts.
2.4.4 TSE Advance-Decline Issues (Daily), while TSX was making a new high, the breadth was making a new low. This means only a few stocks were up and up while the majorities were down and down.
http://bp3.blogger.com/_APmrYvpA45s/SHBCwsXXNFI/AAAAAAAAADE/CX9r6wmeOD4/s320/TOAD.png
8.0.7 NYSE Advance-Decline Issues 1997-2003. Look at year 1999 to 2000. Exactly the same thing happened, NYSE was making a new high while the breadth was going down. Look at what had happened after year 2000.
http://bp1.blogger.com/_APmrYvpA45s/SHBCw8ugh-I/AAAAAAAAADM/7OSxB9EPW5c/s320/NYAD1997-2003.png
I think TSX is about to repeat the history.
Posted by Cobra at 8:56 PM 5 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
07/05/2008 Market Recap (Has the market bottomed?)
0.0.5 Market Bottomed? I see no bottom signals.
http://bp3.blogger.com/_APmrYvpA45s/SHA1Qyu-5ZI/AAAAAAAAACE/XzlQnKAdZ4E/s320/MarketBottomed.png
0.0.6 Can market bottom without VIX spike?
I heard lots of saying that this time is different as people are well prepared so the market can be bottomed without VIX spikes. Really? People were well prepared in year 2000 bear market, right? Well, VIX still spiked and so did ATR, CPC and NATV.
http://bp3.blogger.com/_APmrYvpA45s/SHA1eh27-LI/AAAAAAAAACM/CbCSPjKkGBA/s320/VIX2001-2003.png
0.0.3 INDU leads the Market
So far this chart worked well. SPX followed INDU closing bellow its March low. Now it's the COMPQ's turn. Will COMPQ follow INDU breakdown bellow its March low?
http://bp3.blogger.com/_APmrYvpA45s/SHA1l1yOcNI/AAAAAAAAACU/339AeuXIBKg/s320/INDULeadsMarket.png
0.0.4 QQQQ Outperforms SPY Good Sign?
Yes, QQQQ will go down and so does COMPQ, as the QQQQ:SPY ratio is till very high.
http://bp3.blogger.com/_APmrYvpA45s/SHA13rWTa7I/AAAAAAAAACc/6_LuSYS3k-A/s320/QQQQOutperformsSPY.png
So to summarise, I think that the market has not bottomed yet.
Short term, I see lots of breadth oversold signals.
2.3.0 NYSE High-Low Index.
http://bp3.blogger.com/_APmrYvpA45s/SHA2QrOvtYI/AAAAAAAAAC8/VBWLBN1Tc1I/s320/RHNYA.png
2.3.2 NYSE - 10 Day MA of Record High Percent Index, at the point where the market was bottomed in the past.
http://bp3.blogger.com/_APmrYvpA45s/SHA2QemcNOI/AAAAAAAAAC0/aTHLGhV3ymg/s320/NYHILO.png
2.7.0 NYSE % of Stocks Above 50 Day MA (Daily).
http://bp0.blogger.com/_APmrYvpA45s/SHA2QQz5YyI/AAAAAAAAACs/9jaOnkvjLf0/s320/NYA50R.png
So short-term as the market is very oversold, a relief rally is possible.
I think the coming week is critical. There are two possibilities:
1. Continue sell off with no rebounce, VIX in this case will spike, so the market will reach its panic bottom.
2. Bounce to correct the oversold condition. In this case the market will have a long way to go before bottoming. If this is the case, my suggestion is to take the opportunity to add short positions.
My guess is case 2 is more likely. As summer is usually the weakest season of the stock market and also from chart 1.0.2 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Monthly), probably we'll have another down month in July.
http://bp0.blogger.com/_APmrYvpA45s/SHA2QFMmpGI/AAAAAAAAACk/tIUyfyFCGw4/s320/Mini2MonthesDown.png
Posted by Cobra at 12:35 PM 1 comments http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_email.gif
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[*]▼ 2009 (67)[*]▼ Mar 22 - Mar 29 (6)[*]03/25/2009 Market Recap: 5 more days to go?[*]03/24/2009 Market Recap: Consolidation Day[*]When both SPX and VIX drops[*]Thank you for the referring![*]03/23/2009 Market Recap: Very Short-term Overbough...[*]03/20/2009 Market Recap: Hey, don’t you see interm...[*]► Mar 15 - Mar 22 (7)[*]03/19/2009 Market Recap: The 2nd Bearish Reversal ...[*]03/18/2009 Market Recap: CPC new low![*]03/17/2009 Market Recap: Market Overbought[*]Too busy, so tonight's report will be delayed till...[*]03/16/2009 Market Recap: Bearish Reversal Day[*]When both SPX and VIX up on the day[*]03/13/2009 Market Recap: Pullback or Down Leg?[*]► Mar 8 - Mar 15 (5)[*]03/12/2009 Market Recap: Very short-term overbough...[*]03/11/2009 Market Recap: This bounce may have more...[*]03/10/2009 Market Recap: Firework Trading Setup Tr...[*]03/09/2009 Market Recap: Speculation Play?[*]03/06/2009 Market Recap: 3/6/2009 = 11/21/2008?[*]► Mar 1 - Mar 8 (5)[*]03/05/2009 Market Recap: Flight-to-safety[*]03/04/2009 Market Recap: Oversold Tension Relieved...[*]03/03/2009 Market Recap: Still No Panic[*]03/02/2009 Market Recap: Turnaround Tuesday?[*]02/27/2009 Market Recap: Repeat History or Make Hi...[*]► Feb 22 - Mar 1 (7)[*]02/26/2009 Market Recap: Firework still possible b...[*]02/25/2009 Market Recap: New Low or Firework?[*]02/24/2009 Market Recap: A CPC's Tale[*]SPX Relative to Normal P/E Range[*]Why 1997 lows?[*]02/23/2009 Market Recap: A TICK's Tale[*]02/20/2009 Market Recap: Finally Oversold[*]► Feb 15 - Feb 22 (4)[*]02/19/2009 Market Recap: No Panic Yet[*]02/18/2009 Market Recap: SPX down 3 days in a row[*]02/17/2009 Market Recap: Breakdown![*]02/13/2009 Market Recap: No Follow-through[*]► Feb 8 - Feb 15 (5)[*]02/12/2009 Market Recap: Range Bound[*]02/11/2009 Market Recap: Consolidation Day[*]02/10/2009 Market Recap: Overdone[*]02/09/2009 Market Recap: Sell on News?[*]02/06/2009 Market Recap: Innocent (Up) Until Prove...[*]► Feb 1 - Feb 8 (6)[*]02/05/2009 Market Recap: Firework continues[*]02/04/2009 Market Recap: Follow-through Wanted[*]02/03/2009 Market Recap: Firework begins[*]02/02/2009 Market Recap: Anticipating Firework[*]Don't know what I say everyday? Here's a simple ve...[*]01/30/2009 Market Recap: No Title[*]► Jan 25 - Feb 1 (7)[*]01/29/2009 Market Recap: Bearish Engulf[*]Temporarily Disable Comments[*]01/28/2009 Market Recap: Higher High[*]01/27/2009 Market Recap: SPX:CPCE Trading Setup[*]Another no good sign[*]► Jan 18 - Jan 25 (4)[*]► Jan 11 - Jan 18 (5)[*]► Jan 4 - Jan 11 (6)[*]► 2008 (137)[*]► Dec 28 - Jan 4 (4)[*]► Dec 21 - Dec 28 (5)[*]► Dec 14 - Dec 21 (6)[*]► Dec 7 - Dec 14 (5)[*]► Nov 30 - Dec 7 (4)[*]► Nov 23 - Nov 30 (4)[*]► Nov 16 - Nov 23 (6)[*]► Nov 9 - Nov 16 (5)[*]► Nov 2 - Nov 9 (4)[*]► Oct 26 - Nov 2 (7)[*]► Oct 19 - Oct 26 (6)[*]► Oct 12 - Oct 19 (4)[*]► Oct 5 - Oct 12 (8)[*]► Sep 28 - Oct 5 (6)[*]► Sep 21 - Sep 28 (6)[*]► Sep 14 - Sep 21 (4)[*]► Sep 7 - Sep 14 (5)[*]► Aug 31 - Sep 7 (5)[*]► Aug 24 - Aug 31 (5)[*]► Aug 17 - Aug 24 (7)[*]► Aug 10 - Aug 17 (5)[*]► Aug 3 - Aug 10 (5)[*]► Jul 27 - Aug 3 (4)[*]► Jul 20 - Jul 27 (5)[*]► Jul 13 - Jul 20 (6)[*]► Jul 6 - Jul 13 (4)[*]► Jun 29 - Jul 6 (2)
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-3-26 12:06 编辑 ]
Outperform The SP500 with sector base Technical Analysis
How to make money in The Great Depression2.Useing gold,oil,bear and bull 2x/3x ETFS are all cover here.When ever I see a technical reading to buy/sell I will post a chart of that etf or stock.So always keep your eyes open here for new etf and stock picks.
Wednesday, March 25, 2009"Charts"
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_mRj_oVbEKrY/Scr8dTKPsKI/AAAAAAAAAH4/9jAAyBarwxs/s400/spy.png
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_mRj_oVbEKrY/Scr8dD0hnBI/AAAAAAAAAHw/eyPRs3SdzLU/s400/vix.png
Posted by ICECOLD TRADER at 3/25/2009 11:38:00 PM
My Holding's
My holdings FAZ29%,SRS20%,SDS20%,DXD20%, ,CASH USD 10%, puts on VNO and SPG JAN2010 1%. No news for today.Happy trading and See you all tomorrow. Note I don't use stops for the trend trades.The S&P500 target 400.The DOW30 target 4,000
Posted by ICECOLD TRADER at 3/25/2009 11:30:00 PM
Friday, March 13, 2009Holdings
My holdings FAZ29%,SRS20%,SDS20%,DXD20%, ,CASH USD 10%, puts on VNO and SPG JAN2010 1%. No news for today.Happy trading and See you all tomorrow. Note I don't use stops for the trend trades.The S&P500 target 400.The DOW30 target 4,000
cover my GLD short for 7.69% profit in 14days and got some 9% more of faz today at $42-$44
Posted by ICECOLD TRADER at 3/13/2009 12:07:00 AM
Thursday, March 12, 2009Charts!
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_mRj_oVbEKrY/SbnaV1e9D7I/AAAAAAAAAHo/J0VfAOO5p-o/s400/spy.png
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_mRj_oVbEKrY/SbnaV_iV0qI/AAAAAAAAAHg/_mJhu5LS3wo/s400/spy+5d+15min.gif
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_mRj_oVbEKrY/SbnaVnTZOCI/AAAAAAAAAHY/Ca_bkuJPXA8/s400/%24vix.png
what is the PPT: http://www.rense.com/general52/secretsoftheplunge.htm
I Strongly feel that they are the only people holding up the markets these last few days.
Posted by ICECOLD TRADER at 3/12/2009 11:57:00 PM
Thursday, March 5, 2009"my holdings and report"
hi everyone,
lets get to the market report first I count to remain bearish in the markets. I see no reason too sell any of my bear etfs in the markets today.many bulls,newspapers,and talking heads like fast money and mad money,many other on cnbc are the saying the bottom is here. Plus I use like VOL on spy,qqqq,dia,iwm and it was very light on the sell off today. Telling me the there no panic what so ever yet in the markets.
My holdings FAZ20%,SRS20%,SDS20%,DXD20%, SHORT GLD 9%,
CASH USD 10%, puts on VNO and SPG JAN2010 1%. No news for today.
Happy trading and See you all tomorrow. Note I don't use stops for the trend trades.
The S&P500 targets are 600 and 400.
The DOW30 6,000 and 4,000
the crash remains on window coming 24hr-96hrs
charts and news back tomorrow
Posted by ICECOLD TRADER at 3/05/2009 09:21:00 PM
Tuesday, March 3, 2009My Red Hot Chart"s and Holding"s!!!
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_mRj_oVbEKrY/Sa33F-NRO-I/AAAAAAAAAHQ/oiXN2BjOWto/s400/indu.png
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_mRj_oVbEKrY/Sa33FUpVrfI/AAAAAAAAAHI/jRHsx6ZjDRI/s400/spx.png
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_mRj_oVbEKrY/Sa33FIT9DlI/AAAAAAAAAHA/y12D2JbrcLc/s400/gld.png
Hi everyone,
My holdings FAZ20%,SRS20%,SDS20%,DXD20%, SHORT GLD 9%,
CASH USD 10%, puts on VNO and SPG JAN2010 1%. No news for today.
Happy trading and See you all tomorrow
Posted by ICECOLD TRADER at 3/03/2009 10:32:00 PM
Thursday, February 26, 2009Red Hot Chart"s And My Holding"s
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_mRj_oVbEKrY/SacyK3jucNI/AAAAAAAAAGY/m5R8LFviFsA/s400/gld.png
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_mRj_oVbEKrY/SacyK20I2QI/AAAAAAAAAGQ/sVi-Ve4Ij_Y/s400/indu.png
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_mRj_oVbEKrY/SacyKjhb0dI/AAAAAAAAAGI/AH25YgN4OSM/s400/spx.pngHi everyone,My holdings FAZ20%,SRS20%,SDS20%,DXD20%, SHORT GLD 9%, CASH USD 10%, puts on VNO and SPG JAN2010 1%. No news for today.
Posted by ICECOLD TRADER at 2/26/2009 07:03:00 PM
Tuesday, February 24, 2009My Holding"s and New"s
Hi everyone,
My holdings FAZ20%,SRS20%,SDS20%,DXD20%, SHORT GLD 9%, CASH USD 10%, puts on VNO and SPG JAN2010 1%. Nice pullback on gld and gold oz as called from yesterday post on my blog.
Here's The News breakdown,
Suddenly, the prospect of a Canadian banks cutting its dividends doesn't seem as outrageous as it once did. We all know all the banks in the world have TOXIC paper inside there banks.
Target Corp. (TGT) is adjusting its approach in a way that may make the retailer more like successful rival Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT). Nice wmt vs tgt who will win the value wars?
Wynn Resorts Ltd., the biggest US casino company by market value, reported a fourth-quarter loss as gambling tumbled in Las Vegas and it booked a $98.8 million tax expense. This company was base on cards. So this would be normal for this house of cards to fall apart.
Posted by ICECOLD TRADER at 2/24/2009 06:52:00 PM
Hot charts!!
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_mRj_oVbEKrY/SaSEvcdbuLI/AAAAAAAAAGA/gaUi9AhFsDs/s400/indu.png
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_mRj_oVbEKrY/SaSEvMyT0rI/AAAAAAAAAF4/AB9R52L1-_8/s400/spx.png
Posted by ICECOLD TRADER at 2/24/2009 06:05:00 PM
Monday, February 23, 2009My holdings and Hot news!!
Hi everyone,
My holdings FAZ20%,SRS20%,SDS20%,DXD20%, SHORT GLD 9%, CASH USD 10%, puts on VNO and SPG JAN2010 1%.
Here's The News breakdown,
The major US stock indexes stumbled to their worst finish in more than a decade Monday, as investors considered the US Treasury Department's looming bank rescue plan, and the bailout of insurance giant American International Group came back into focus. This is nothing new here when I call it before this happen old news to me and my members, new views to my site.
The S&P 500 flirted with its November intraday lows Monday, as concern over a prolonged recession weighed on US trading, and investors cast a wary eye toward the financial sector. I feel its more a Depression not Recession the R word is too over rated.
A few weeks after launching the first wide-scale layoffs in its history, Microsoft Corp. admits it screwed up a key part of the plan. What a Bad PC?!!
The Campbell Soup Company posted a deep drop in quarterly sales on Monday as retailers cut back on inventories of items like condensed soup, usually seen as a consumer favorite in economic hard times.What this is Very bad if people have no money for can soup?!!
Bankruptcies are piling up in the newspaper industry as debt-strapped publishers acknowledge that their businesses are deteriorating faster ... What last time I was reading a newspaper was 1990s or was it in 2000s who cares.
American International Group said Monday that it's evaluating "potential new alternatives" with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to tackle the giant insurer's problems. I smell a GOV takeover or a blowup in both cases the markets crash and Burn. Not only USA but world will tank hard. AIG bonds are own by Japan,China,in the EURO ZONE,UK,and many other parts of the world. People of the world say hello to World Wide SLOW DOWN.
Posted by ICECOLD TRADER at 2/23/2009 07:36:00 PM
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Monday, February 23, 2009Red Hot Tanking Charts Of The Day!!!
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Posted by ICECOLD TRADER at 2/23/2009 07:21:00 PM
Close Too A Top In Gold???
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Posted by ICECOLD TRADER at 2/23/2009 12:58:00 PM
Sunday, February 22, 2009hot charts
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Posted by ICECOLD TRADER at 2/22/2009 03:41:00 PM
Thursday, February 19, 2009Hot Chart"s And My Holding"s!!
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http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_mRj_oVbEKrY/SZ42n-bWmcI/AAAAAAAAAE4/fiUWn6ne0jE/s400/indu.png Hi everyone,
Sorry no time for news today news will be back tomorrow.
My holdings FAZ20%,SRS20%,SDS20%,DXD20%, CASH USD 19%,AND VNO&SPG JAN2010 PUTS 1%. happy trading and see you all tomorrow!!!!
Posted by ICECOLD TRADER at 2/19/2009 11:29:00 PM
Wednesday, February 18, 2009Hot charts, news, and my holdings!!
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A government-backed bankruptcy reorganization remains an option for saving General Motors and Chrysler analysts said on Wednesday, even though the automakers have said they would rather. Get some bailout money from Obama.
Stanford Group presented investment results as actual historical data in sales pitches to clients, a former executive told US Securities and Exchange Commission .Clients thank brokers who steered them from Stanford. Come on more ENRON101 everyone wake up please.
Playboy Enterprises Inc, publisher of one of the world's best known adult magazines, posted a wider fourth-quarter loss, hurt by $157.2 million in losses. Now we know its not just the USA but the world is in bank hell. when men got no money for porn?!!
General Electric Chairman and CEO Jeffrey turned down his bonus for 2008 because the company's stock price skidded last year, the company said Wednesday. How nice when most of GE stock cash is gone and at new 52 week lows thank you Jeffrey for paying mind games with stock investors you suck worst than Bear Sterns.
Fed chief Bernanke unveils long-term forecasts, saying public has 'right to know.' Central bank's '09 outlook is grim. come on MR.Bernanke don't be so bearish where that fake bull in you man.
My holdings FAZ20%, SRS20%,SDS10%,DXD10%, CASH USD 39% AND VNO&SPG PUTS JAN2010 1%. Happy trading see you all tomorrow ...
Posted by ICECOLD TRADER at 2/18/2009 04:38:00 PM
Tuesday, February 17, 2009Hot news and my holdings...
Hi everyone,
General Motors Corp. said it needs as much as $16.6 billion in new US loans, more than doubling the aid to date, and must get some of the cash next month to survive. Don't worry Obama is backing up the amour car to
give more Pie money. Its called all about sharing the pie all around town.
Federal regulators say four of the Blackberry maker's current and former top executives illegally granted stock options. This nothing new here everyone running low on money don't worry free blackberry for everyone who lives on the USA. For get out jail free card. what a smart CEO fool share holders. It smells like ENRON101.
Shares of Wal-Mart Stores Inc. advanced Tuesday, buoyed by its earnings report, while other retail stocks stumbled. Why wal mart works cause most people loss there job last month. Where to shop you ask. Only wal mart he or she lives in fear wal mart gives you: YES YOU CAN SAVE
MONEY. Same as Obama: YES WE CAN CHANGE IS HERE. sounds the same and feels the same so it must be the same.
MY holdings FAZ20%, SRS20%, SDS10%, DXD10%, CASH USD 39%, AND VNO&SPG PUTS FOR JAN 2010. Happy trading and see you all tomorrow
Posted by ICECOLD TRADER at 2/17/2009 07:32:00 PM
Droping Charts Of The Day!!!
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Posted by ICECOLD TRADER at 2/17/2009 07:11:00 PM
Friday, February 13, 2009daily post report...
Hi everyone,
what a day today we rally , fall, rally, and only to close lower. My charts have been saying all this before this happen days ago. Wow the Democrats in the House of Representatives pushed through a $787 billion stimulus package backed by President Barack Obama on Friday. So what this only gives a small shot in the arm for USA. Sirius XM Radio Inc. said it’s in discussions to refinance debt and may be forced to file for bankruptcy as early as Feb17. Wells Fargo, JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America and Citigroup Inc. have agreed to halt home foreclosures while the federal government works out a plan to stabilize the nation’s banking industry. Obama trying to share some pie any wall st investors want some not a change cause it only helps the Avg Joe not MR.funds and Investors. Oil up about 4$ today do you smell Inflation on the rise Soon.
My holdings: FAZ20%, SRS20%,SDS10%,DXD10%,CASH39%, AND OWN PUTS ON VNO&SPG1%
Posted by ICECOLD TRADER at 2/13/2009 04:32:00 PM
Charts of day!!
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Posted by ICECOLD TRADER at 2/13/2009 04:29:00 PM
Wednesday, February 11, 2009Puts that I got today
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Posted by ICECOLD TRADER at 2/11/2009 05:48:00 PM
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Wednesday, February 11, 2009my holding"s
Hi everyone,
Yes had rally today but so what it was small and it lack any real vol in the DIA and SPY. I use this etfs as tool only to see real or fake vol the index's. Anyways many of the banks are trying there best to suck in investors to buy there stock"s. Most these banks will go under water or be nationalization. It would be no surprise to me if 7,000 banks blowup this year of 2009 and only 1,000 or less live on. I hate to be saying this but that's what I see in the future for banks. The Big Question Who Next to go down? SPG,VNO,BBT,COF, STT,LNC,WFC, for stocks I like to own 2010 puts in place of shorting them outright and put bet on all them 1or2 puts on each stock.
What I did in my account today was get some 2010Jan 25: SPG puts and 2010Jan 30: VNO puts. 3 Contracts of each. My total holding"s FAZ20%,SRS20%,SDS10%,DXD10%,cash39%, and puts1%. Happy trading everyone and see you tomorrow.
Posted by ICECOLD TRADER at 2/11/2009 04:50:00 PM
Charts of the day
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Posted by ICECOLD TRADER at 2/11/2009 04:43:00 PM
Tuesday, February 10, 2009Tanking Charts Of The Day!
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Posted by ICECOLD TRADER at 2/10/2009 04:52:00 PM
Hot new"s and end of close for Wallst
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Hi everyone,
what a day on wall st a total tanking In a mater of 24hrs from my call markets fall right on time. Like clock work anyways nothing has change we fall lower Dow30 6,000 and S&P500 600. MR.Geithner gets no love from wall st did I miss something yes he must being enjoying while markets fall out the sky. Because he owns gold , silver, shorts, bear etfs, oh my.
My holding"s remain the same ,20%SRS, 20%FAZ,10%SDS,10%DXD, and 40%cash,
wow big moves index's and bear etfs.
Removing toxic assets from banks’ balance sheets is an exercise in futility. The lenders get off the hook and the public pays for the mistakes. If government pays marked-to-market price for toxic assets then all the other financial firms that haven’t received the same treatment as yet will have a large hole cut in their balance sheets, triggering losses and precipitating the collapse of companies throughout the banking system.
There is no easy way around the problem. The only sensible thing is to allow these speculating financial firms to go under. They took the risks, lost, and we pay for it. As you can see if allowed to continue the bailout will take many other firms down the same path they would have embarked on anyway. It will just take a little longer and cost the taxpayer $20 to $30 trillion.
Their game of 3-card-Monte is not going to work and Illuminist Obama’s team A knows that. This is very sad and people of the world have no clue of this evil plan working in the darkness of world markets. But they will all see this very soon. All in due time. The end of daily post report.
Posted by ICECOLD TRADER at 2/10/2009 04:21:00 PM
Monday, February 9, 2009here"s some hot news
Dominique Strauss-Kahn said the Fund needed an urgent cash infusion if it was to continue bailing out troubled economies in the future. Mr Strauss-Kahn also indicated that the world's advanced economies were now tipping from recession into full-blown depression, cementing fears about the scale of the economic slump in rich nations.
The IMF head made the comments in Kuala Lumpur in Malaysia over the weekend, where he is attending a meeting of central bankers from Southeast Asia. The Fund has bailed out a number of countries including Iceland, Latvia and Pakistan but Mr Strauss-Kahn said there would be many others in need of help in the months ahead.
"Today, the IMF's resources are enough to face the situation but because we are facing a global crisis, the needs may be much bigger than previously," he said. "We have to intervene in Asia, Africa and Central Europe, Latin America, and maybe elsewhere. I can't promise that in six to eight months from now, we will have enough resources."
Obama's stimulus plan, aka the Political Payoff Plan or PPP, together with the second half of the TARP, aka the Paulson Ponzi Plunder Plan or PPPP, will deliver a shot in the arm to our economy that will be both brief and shallow, sending us careening on our way to hyperinflation, which will deepen the depression we are already in by sending interest rates skyrocketing and killing off what little business activity remains. Interest rate swaps, with notional principal in the hundreds of trillions, will also implode at that time, administering the coup de grace to the world economy and financial system from which the Illuminati hope to form their one-world government, economy, currency, feudal society and religion.
The Illuminati may use the brief upsurge derived from the PPP and the PPPP as an opportunity to complete the Big Sting Two, where they dump their dollar-denominated paper assets in favor of tangible real assets via dark pools of liquidity and unregulated OTC markets out of the view of both regulators and the public, leaving all the non-insider sucker-dupes holding the bag full of the worthless fiat currency known as Federal Reserve notes (aka toilet paper) or paper assets denominated in such. Dollar surplus nations who are tight with the Illuminists will be allowed to go on a spending spree and join in on the fun by spending their once-sterilized dollars, and this will then very seriously aggravate an already deadly bout of hyperinflation. You won't know about what these other nations are doing, however, because the Illuminist-controlled FTC no longer publishes figures about foreign investment in the US. How incredibly convenient.
Posted by ICECOLD TRADER at 2/09/2009 10:02:00 PM
Here"s some nice charts of the DOW30 and S&P500
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Posted by ICECOLD TRADER at 2/09/2009 09:22:00 PM
I dont see decay when you trade this etf not buy and hold, buy high and sell low
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Posted by ICECOLD TRADER at 2/09/2009 09:01:00 PM
Why does jim cramer and fastmoney pump decay?
Jan Lombard ,
this may be true for over a year or more but not 1-6months it will not shrivel your value up over that line time. EX: I use SKF cause"s it traded more months in the market than FAZ. If all you did was at buy low end of the chart and sell at the high end of chart this year of 2008 only. You would made a gain of 80% , 200%, 100%, total of 380% gain for the year of 2008. the avg investor has $50,000 of cash in his or her account by end of year you would be siting on a huge profit of $490,000 gains from skf. TV and web only hates on etfs 2x and 3x bear,bull most investors buy when its at high end of chart and sell at low end. And if there was no time decay there would be no opportunity to make this type of gains. Its not good for the long term investors but great for trend traders like me and others. OK time for some cool news and chart's of DOW30 and SP500. I guess the cnbc and others want investors to lose and not make any profit's how sad.
Posted by ICECOLD TRADER at 2/09/2009 08:36:00 PM
what to do with dow30 at 10:20am now?
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Posted by ICECOLD TRADER at 2/09/2009 10:20:00 AM
Sunday, February 8, 2009
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Posted by ICECOLD TRADER at 2/08/2009 06:23:00 PM
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三月 24, 2009 - 08:40 上午Short Ideas (1 of 3)
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Posted: 08:40 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 17, 2009 - 06:41 上午Low PlateauI'm going through charts with All Daily History now, which means I am seeing them back to the late 1960s (or whenever they went public). One thing that strikes me is just how far some stocks could still fall during a protracted bear market. Apple, for example, could conceivably go back into the high teens. Impossible, you say? That's not a word you should use during a market like this.
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Posted: 06:41 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
八月 25, 2008 - 01:59 下午Then I Woke UpIn this weekend's post, I wrote, "Zooming in to the intraday level, however, you can see how technically perfect all this price action has been. An ascending wedge, a break, and a perfect retracement to the underside. I would be very, very surprised (and disappointed) if we didn't see a down day on Monday."
Well, I was neither surprised nor disappointed. I got the "one-two punch" I was hoping for............a drop across the board in oil, gold, and equities. The notion that these are inversely correlated is, in my opinion, total nonsense, and I am positioned as such. Today's 241 point drop on the Dow was welcome, and the last three days of this week are packed with important economic reports.
Observant readers may notice that my performance figures have dropped from something like 95% to 77%. The reason for this is that we've changed how this is calculated. Last week, a reader pointed out what he felt was a mathematical flaw in the calculation; I agreed, and I asked an engineer to correct it. This has been corrected, but still, the figures shown are not bad! Please keep in mind my caveat about this figure, no matter what it says.
Today I'm simply going to show you my favorite current positions. I've got a total of 109 - - yes, 109! - - positions, every single one of them bearish. But here are my jumping-up-and-down favorite ones.........
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Posted: 01:59 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink