七月 17, 2008 - 04:36 下午Earnings GaloreWell, this is the day we've all been waiting for - - and what terrific results were offered after hours! There are an avalanche of earnings out there - - IBM, Merrill Lynch, Microsoft - - the list is very long, and the vast majority of stocks I follow were either (a) getting hit; or (b) getting destroyed. I was watching Google most carefully after the close, which had closed around 533. I was watching the bid/ask like a hawk. For a moment I saw a bid of 550, but maybe some joker thought it was funny, because a moment later the bids below $500 starting falling in. As of this writing, the bid/ask for GOOG is around $490, which is indicated below with the purple tinted area. It will be interesting to see if we "fill the gap" (marked in green tint) any time soon, given this smack-down.
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So yesterday the Dow was up about 270, and today it was up over 200 again. Fantastic! I love it! It has provided me so many wonderful shorting opportunities. In fact, at this point, I have 100 positions. There are simply so many fantastic stocks out there. My energy shorts have been doing sensationally well, and I loaded up on some issues today that had been hoisted higher by the huge two-day rally in the financials.
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I took some more energy profits off the table today, since I think some of the selling has finished for a little while. But don't get me wrong - - I still have a huge quantity of bearish energy positions. I just got out of simple stuff, like OIH. Here is the Dow Jones index on which DUG is based:
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Mentioning the $UTIL is getting to be a daily habit, but I just love this pattern. If the neckline is broken, I think we're heading for the purple zone below.
Mentioning the $UTIL is getting to be a daily habit, but I just love this pattern. If the neckline is broken, I think we're heading for the purple zone below.
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I have amassed two very large positions on the $RUT (puts) based on the robust retracement to the retracement line you see below. This is the IWM (obviously).
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I was also pleased to see the NASDAQ push its way back to almost precisely the underbelly of the fan line.
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I mentioned closing my OIH puts at excellent profits. You can plainly see why here.
I mentioned closing my OIH puts at excellent profits. You can plainly see why here.
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I mentioned 1270 being an important level of resistance for the S&P today. It got close enough to this line today for my satisfaction.
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As for DUG, set aside your knowledge that this is based on energy. Just pretend the chart below is a regular company stock. Don't you think this looks terribly bullish? Look at the surge in volume and the wonderful trendline breakout. Isn't this a gorgeous graph? That's why I own a ton of this (remember, I put 100% of my IRA into this thing when it was about $29, and the gains have been handsome in the short amount of time since then).
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Fashion provider to the younger set ANF has a sensational topping pattern. I have taken advantage of the retracement by buying puts.
Fashion provider to the younger set ANF has a sensational topping pattern. I have taken advantage of the retracement by buying puts.
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XEC has great profits, but I'm hanging on for more.
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CRK is one of the many momentum-driven "hockey stick" graphs whose puts I bought a week or so ago. Again, fantastic profits, but I am holding out for more.
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I bought puts on BTU yesterday based on its failed bullish breakout. This is a favorite technique of mine.
I bought puts on BTU yesterday based on its failed bullish breakout. This is a favorite technique of mine.
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POT was finally smoked today, as was MOS. I think there is still plenty of downside here.
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I re-entered my SOHU short (which I had closed a couple of days ago) since the retracement finished. The neckline isn't as clean as I'd like, but I'm willing to take a chance.
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I've got a straight equity short on HK with marvelous results. What will be hard for me - - VERY hard - - is to know the right time to exit plays like this.
I've got a straight equity short on HK with marvelous results. What will be hard for me - - VERY hard - - is to know the right time to exit plays like this.
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It was mentioned in the comments how instructive Friday's action will be, and I agree. If we somehow end with a positive market on the day, that will be a very, very bullish sign, because these earnings are very plainly disappointing. On the other hand, if the market gets smacked down hard, maybe we're in a new era of having to face the reality of weak earnings, which will thus push down valuations farther. We'll know soon! Good luck, stay humble, and stay nimble.
Posted: 04:36 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
七月 15, 2008 - 09:15 上午Done with GOOGI had puts in both my accounts on GOOG, and I've closed them, simply because it got close enough to my $500 price target (the low for today so far was 501.10). Not to say that it couldn't go a lot lower - remember that earnings come out Thursday afternoon, and I can only imagine what kind of carnage would come out of an earnings disappointment. But I am trying to trade based on charts, not just luck and hope. Hence, thus closing.
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Posted: 09:15 上午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
七月 09, 2008 - 07:02 上午GOOGMy posts tends to be epic-length, but I'd rather start the day with just one chart - GOOG. I'm intrigued by this pattern. I already own puts on it, but I am buying more, with a contingent-stop set at 557.80.
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Posted: 07:02 上午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
六月 11, 2008 - 05:34 下午Eight Years to GoI read with great interest the latest report I know there are varying degrees of skepticism here about EWT, but I find it fascinating, and the reports from this firm are well-articulated. Some of the highlights from their latest report postulate that:
[*]We've got about 8 years of general bear market (both commodities and equities) ahead of us, with an "idea" bottom for commodities in 2013, for stocks (in nominal terms) 2014, and for stocks (in real dollar terms) in 2016.[*]In those eight years, they project an economic slump more substantial than the Great Depression (I imagine people would take great issue with this point in particular).[*]The crude oil market is in the midst of its final swing up, with a projected ultimate high between $160 and $189 per barrel.In the broadest terms, the notion of a bear market until about 2014 has been the theme I've been working with. The dream, of course, would be to amass ample profits in the course of that bear market and be ready to convert into a (gasp) mega-bull in 2015 or so.
Eight years is one thing, and one day is quite another. And what a good day it was! As has become the norm lately, the day started off kind of bad, but things shored up, slipped down, and caught fire. I had a terrific and very profitable day in the markets, and my level of activity (that is, trading) was just about zero. That's how it should be.
All eyes have been on Lehman (LEH) lately, as it plunges to amazing new lows. The broader Broker/Dealer index is getting pretty close to its mid-March nadir, where BSC got blown into oblivion.
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The Transports, which had been a source of worry for me even just a week ago, is fading fast as a point of concern.
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I've got a relatively small put position on the NASDAQ market, and it is doing nicely. We seem to be in the clear on the $COMPQ for at least another 75 points.
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As for the $NDX, the break beneath that trendline was prescient.
As for the $NDX, the break beneath that trendline was prescient.
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I used to trade the Russell constantly, but I've taken a break. This chart is getting so compelling that I might re-enter this market. This chart has broken down very nicely.
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The one big index position I do have, puts on the S&P, is doing great. I think it would take a pretty big disaster to push it to new lows for the year. I'm holding out for the upper 1200s.
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I just bought some SRS today in my IRA.
I just bought some SRS today in my IRA.
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My COH position, which is ancient (weeks old!) for me, continues to do great.
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I also like how DECK is finally starting to break down. Just like their product, bulls on this stock must be saying UGG!
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AMLN is also moving swiftly away from its resistance line.
AMLN is also moving swiftly away from its resistance line.
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My puts on GOOG are doing great, and I'd start taking profits on this around $500. A big blow-up in the market would make me finish taking profits around $425.
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Of the four horseman, I've got either puts or shorts on all four. RIMM is slipping away from what would have been a bullish breakout.
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My old buddy ATI is also doing well, and I'm happy to wait a long time for this trade to fully mature.
My old buddy ATI is also doing well, and I'm happy to wait a long time for this trade to fully mature.
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CHTT is on its way to what I'm projecting is a much, much lower price.
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I shorted HBC a few days ago, so far with good results.
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And JNPR did very well; I think I'd close this one up in the low 20s.
And JNPR did very well; I think I'd close this one up in the low 20s.
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By the way, take a look at a month-old post here to understand how fun my "smart charts" can be given some time. When you click the Present tab, you'll see how the stock or index has changed since the post.
And, with that, I'll leave you with a message from Spock.
Â
Posted: 05:34 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
The equity markets pushed beneath May's lows today in many cases, and we seem to be on the "right side" of the Fibonacci retracement line.
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The Transports, too - - worrisome of late - - could be in the process of turning the tide. That lifetime high we saw in May could be the high water mark for quite some time. A fall beneath 5,150 would cement that.
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The the NASDAQ, a favorite of mine to watch these days would make its bearish case clear again if it fell beneath 2,450 Friday's unemployment report may be the catalyst to really take the market down, since there's no real economic news on the scene until then.
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Looking closer at the $NDX, we got tantalizingly close to breaking the channel, but instead it touched it perfectly. Maybe next time, eh?
Looking closer at the $NDX, we got tantalizingly close to breaking the channel, but instead it touched it perfectly. Maybe next time, eh?
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If oil really tumbles, how far could OIH go? Judging from this graph, I'd say the low 180s.
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Russell 2000 - formerly my favorite - remains stubbornly above its retracement line. We have another 20 points to fall before we're in the clear.
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I do, however, have puts on the S&P 500, which is weaker.
do, however, have puts on the S&P 500, which is weaker.
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In my IRA account, I can only buy positions, so I am forced to go long either equities or inverse funds. I've got a mix of both. A few favorites right now include CPI Corp....
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......Firstfed (much riskier).......
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.......the QQQ double inverse fund........
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.......and Toll Brothers (although I'll be a lot more enthusiastic if it breaks above $26).
.......and Toll Brothers (although I'll be a lot more enthusiastic if it breaks above $26).
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On the short side, CEPH's pattern is terrific, provided it doesn't cross above the line you see here.
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First Solar closed at its trendline both yesterday and today. I am optimistic this is going to take out the $250 level, which is critical to its plunge.
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I have good hopes for ISRG as well. Its formerly bullish pattern is ancient history now.
I have good hopes for ISRG as well. Its formerly bullish pattern is ancient history now.
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If the Transports roll over, there are some stocks which enjoyed the sensational rise in 2008 which will fall just as fast. Ryder, a major component, is one of them.
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I also shorted GD today based on its failure to fulfill its bullish breakout.
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Genzyme, profitable but a source of frustration, is finally inching down beneath its neckline.
Genzyme, profitable but a source of frustration, is finally inching down beneath its neckline.
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I have puts in both GOOG and BIDU. Today was better for the former.
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And another of the four horseman, RIMM, has failed its bullish breakout - - often a good sign for us bears.
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Dick Cheney-land, Halliburton, is a new short for me today.
Dick Cheney-land, Halliburton, is a new short for me today.
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I used to be excited about LNN, but this chart just isn't acting right at all. I may bag this one.
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Lastly, SLB is behaving itself beneath resistance, and I could see this easily getting down to $80.
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Thanks for all the nice comments and emails about the prior post; they are much appreciated! Good night.
Posted: 02:55 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
五月 21, 2008 - 03:58 下午Zap!
Posted: 03:58 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink