Oh, and then there's my favorite, ICE. I just love this position. Love it to pieces.
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I bought a single put on $NDX today (fairly deep in the money). Continued weakness could shave another 100 points off here.
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It's officially Thursday now (wee hours of the morning), so I'm off to bed. Farewell!
Posted: 12:03 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
七月 08, 2008 - 04:10 下午Slope OperaMy "theme" has been repeated so often, it risks getting tiresome, but I'll say it again: energy shorts and agriculture shorts (with index option day-trades thrown in for good measure in either direction). It has served me well recently.
Even though yesterday showed the potential for "The Bounce", it sputtered very quickly. Today, however, a push higher held, and in some cases, the push was quite substantial. The Dow's 152 point rise was actually one of the tamer ones:
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Since we're in a bear market, I really, really like rallies, because they give me new opportunities. The giant question, as always, is this: does the rally represent a one-day wonder, or is this simply the start of a very substantial countertrend, like we saw in mid-March through mid-May? I don't know. The IWM, shown below, doesn't hit really serious resistance until around $71.
Since we're in a bear market, I really, really like rallies, because they give me new opportunities. The giant question, as always, is this: does the rally represent a one-day wonder, or is this simply the start of a very substantial countertrend, like we saw in mid-March through mid-May? I don't know. The IWM, shown below, doesn't hit really serious resistance until around $71.
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I was excited this morning to see how quickly oil-related issues were plunging. Today's hammer pattern implies we're going to have a bit of a bounce short-term, but I think that for at least the medium-term, the high prices in crude were marked a few days ago.
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In my IRA account, a couple of days ago, I went very bullish, putting all my cash into QLD, DDM, DUG, UYG, and UWM. Yesterday, July 7th, DUG's strength compensated for the weakness in the other four positions. Today, however, all five positions were up handsomely, particularly UYG, which benefited from the bounce I've been expecting from the world of investment banks.
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I was amused to see a headling that AMBAC had "surged over 50%" today. Yes, that's very true.
I was amused to see a headling that AMBAC had "surged over 50%" today. Yes, that's very true.
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But it's important to keep such things in context!
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My puts on the $XAU had a decent day, but I am looking for much, much lower price levels from here.
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With such a strong day for the bulls, it was particularly heartening to see one of my favorite put positions (and one of my largest ones) take it a bit on the chin. Clearly a break below last week's lows would spell great things for this position.
With such a strong day for the bulls, it was particularly heartening to see one of my favorite put positions (and one of my largest ones) take it a bit on the chin. Clearly a break below last week's lows would spell great things for this position.
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But even more favorite than that is the chart I keep foisting on you - ICE. It went up today some, but that's OK with me. This pattern is uber-powerful.
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I bought some IBM puts today, although I've got fairly tight stops on it. It really depends on if this rally has legs or not.
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My short on RJF was already in place, but it's pretty clear to me from this chart that, in spite of a 11% lift in the price of the stock, the general direction is going to be down.
My short on RJF was already in place, but it's pretty clear to me from this chart that, in spite of a 11% lift in the price of the stock, the general direction is going to be down.
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I was going to buy a bunch of BAC and COF stock this morning, but I didn't have time. Ah, well. It's no surprise to see such a battered issue have a spring higher. This is the largest rise BAC has seen in months.
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The overinflation of OIH has definitely been let out to some degree. Looking at these fan lines, noodling around in the 200-210 range seems most likely.
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Here are a couple of short ideas. MTL.........
Here are a couple of short ideas. MTL.........
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......and STT, which seems to be retracting back toward its broken trendline.
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Tomorrow is also going to be busy for me. ThinkOrSwim users, please note I will be doing the "chat" session at 2 p.m. PST, 4 p.m. CST, 5 p.m. EST, so please join me there. I have no idea what I'll talk about, but I'm sure I'll think of something good by then!
Posted: 04:10 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
六月 25, 2008 - 07:29 上午You Sure Got Pretty LipsThis chart is, to me, a thing of beauty. We'll see how that neckline holds up under the Bernanke storm, forecast for 2:15 EST today.
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Pfft, if I had drawn the Fibs on the $TRAN properly yesterday, I'd have reported that it touched its retracement perfectly. Here's the correct chart.
Pfft, if I had drawn the Fibs on the $TRAN properly yesterday, I'd have reported that it touched its retracement perfectly. Here's the correct chart.
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Posted: 07:29 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
六月 23, 2008 - 01:51 下午I'm Keeping George in My ThoughtsI received a lot of nice emails about my regarding George Carlin's passing today. I appreciate those. Sometimes people would rather share thoughts privately than publicly, and I completely understand that.
Please be reminded that I'm traveling on Tuesday, so there will be no post until after the market's closing. I'll be nervously fidgeting in the air, not even benefiting from seeing how the market opens. I'll have a brief intra-market-day layover to check on things. With the Fed announcing on Wednesday, hopefully Tuesday will be sedate.
I'm pretty excited about the prospect of IWM breaking the blue line you see below. I am getting re-enamored with the Russell as a trading instrument.
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Whereas I'm sick and tired of energy. This has been a boondoggle. I think I'm just going to stay away from OIH for a good, long time. Maybe crude's oil to $500 a barrel. Who knows. I'm tired of guessing.
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Just a few quick ideas to chew on tonight. CSX looks interesting; it violating its resistance somewhat, but appears to be turning back down.
Just a few quick ideas to chew on tonight. CSX looks interesting; it violating its resistance somewhat, but appears to be turning back down.
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RIMM, which I think reports after Wednesday's close, is just a shot-in-the-dark on my part. This is one of those "well, it's got to fall one of these days" plays that either goes to $0 or works out great.
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I like R as a short, but I'm kind of bugged that the options are surprisingly thinly traded.
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RJF is one of the financials that hasn't suffered as badly as its peers, but I think that could change soon. I'm shorting this one.
RJF is one of the financials that hasn't suffered as badly as its peers, but I think that could change soon. I'm shorting this one.
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Here's one that got away - AutoZone (AZO). I wrote about its diamond pattern many times, but I didn't stick with it. Shame on me.
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Bank of America is the biggie out here in California, and I'm just blown away by what kind of fall this is taking. It has lost about 50% of its value in the past year. Below is a ten-year, weekly chart. What a plunge!
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I'm glad I gave up on my GENZ puts. I made a small profit on them, but I was noticing it was not behaving as it should, so I got out. When a pattern acts abnormally, that's a sign to move on. Doing so worked out in this case.
I'm glad I gave up on my GENZ puts. I made a small profit on them, but I was noticing it was not behaving as it should, so I got out. When a pattern acts abnormally, that's a sign to move on. Doing so worked out in this case.
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I don't have a position in EZU, but its progress on the H&S formation is pretty to watch.
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I'll close which was from Carlin's last HBO performance. It is simply brilliant. For those who don't know any better, the language is pretty blue in some places, but this 10 minute clip is a fantastic example of Carlin's genius as a writer, performer, and comedian.
Posted: 01:51 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 22, 2008 - 04:46 下午Fat!Enough of this fat talk. You've caught me. I'm obese. Morbidly so. All the photographs you've seen recently were heavily Photoshopped. Here's the real Tim at work. May God forgive me for what I am.
I'm also fat with profits. Relatively speaking, at least.
It's interesting how the volume pushed much higher yesterday (during the 200+ point plunge) and shrank tremendously today with the piddling 21 point gain. (I also noticed how Marketwatch heralded this "bounce back", even though it was only 10% of the prior day's loss.)
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The $NDX, which is my big put position, has been marching up an ascending channel since mid-March. Breaking 1,940 would put a stop to that nonsense.
The $NDX, which is my big put position, has been marching up an ascending channel since mid-March. Breaking 1,940 would put a stop to that nonsense.
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I remain cautiously skeptical about the S&P 500. I've tinted in the bullish case.
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But I also think the FOREX markets are pointing to a strengthening dollar. That will rough up the oil markets pretty good, should it happen.
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My AGU puts are doing OK and I like the prospects of this stock heading down to the low 60s.
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Akamai also had its first nice whack today. I'd be a holder of these puts down to about $30.
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Here's one of my hockey stick plays - CNQ. The target price for the inverted head and shoulders was met (and exceed by a point or two), and I could easily see this getting chopped 20 points.
Here's one of my hockey stick plays - CNQ. The target price for the inverted head and shoulders was met (and exceed by a point or two), and I could easily see this getting chopped 20 points.
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I've got CAT puts with a stop at last week's high. Failed bullish breaking is my thinking here.
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First Solar ("fizzler") has lost 15% of its value since last week. Cracking that ascending trendline at about $250 would mean party time. Gosh, where's Beanie? Oh, I forgot. He's mute when things aren't going his way. Puss.
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I've got puts on RIMM too. Another failed bullish breakout.
I've got puts on RIMM too. Another failed bullish breakout.
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Sunpower is another bearish play on solar. This stock is obviously a lot weaker technically than FSLR.
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BIDU dropping 20 points - whoo hoo! It's easy to picture another 100 points getting nuked off this baby.
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ISRG was another honey today. Just look at the price collapse away from that trendline!
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I've got a variety of real estate shorts, which has my interest after a long hiatus.
I've got a variety of real estate shorts, which has my interest after a long hiatus.
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And I have trouble believing generic online brokerages are going to thrive once the bear market resumes.
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For an energy company, this is a pathetic chart.
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SLB is yet another failed bullish breakout (FBB, not to be confused with BFF).
SLB is yet another failed bullish breakout (FBB, not to be confused with BFF).
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And that's all I've got to say about that.
Posted: 04:46 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 14, 2008 - 07:15 上午Strong Stocks, Weak OilThis morning's CPI number gave the bulls a sigh of relief, and the markets opened solidly higher. As of this writing (only 20 minutes into the open), the IWM has solidly closed the gap it created back on January 4th. By the time you read this, it may have soared past that horizontal resistance line. The Dow is already up into the triple digits. Fun, fun, fun.
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By contrast, gold and (more so...) oil are weaker as of this moment. I guess the feeling that's starting to spread is that if oil falls, that will be a great catalyst for equities to explode higher. In other words, expensive oil is the only thing holding them back. I am thus highly concentrated in oil-related shorts and avoiding index plays.
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Posted: 07:15 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 13, 2008 - 04:14 下午Adios, HermanosI'm on the plane leaving Las Vegas as I'm typing this. I wanted to make a little time for today's post instead of waiting for tonight.
Trading has been not-so-fun for weeks now. I am not just talking about the market going up. I'm speaking more to the fact how it was much better behaved from a technical standpoint during the first three months of the year. I really enjoyed my "to-the-penny!" declarations from months of yore.
The plane is going to take off any minute, so I'm just going to throw in a bunch of charts I find interesting. They pretty much speak for themselves. I'm sorry I don't have time for commentary.
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I'll be back in the morning with more time on my hands. Thank you for swinging by!
Posted: 04:14 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
四月 22, 2008 - 02:17 下午Semi-SatisfiedToday was a pretty good day. Ninety minutes before the close, it was a really good day. However, IWM and OIH recovered to some degree. In spite of that, we still whacked over 100 points off the Dow 30 and enjoyed a decent drop in oil-related items. So I'mnot complaining.
I've removed the "intra-Fib" retracements on the IWM, since I'm frankly not sure where they belong. I'd rather not be basing decisions on levels I'm not positive are valid. So we remain between the very broad ~64 to ~72 range on the IWM, somewhat near the upper range. We had a drop today on the best volume we've seen in about a month. It goes without saying that we need to stay below last Friday's highs to have a prayer in this market.
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The Dow dropped away from the psychologically important 13,000 level. I've drawn a red line at 12,900 which seems to be the neckline (as it were) for this pattern. There's a heck of a lot of support between 11,800 and 12,800 - - a thousand points is a lot to chop through.
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I've expressed concern several times about the Transports. This pattern isn't exactly acting like a launching point. It's still intact, but a drop beneath about 4,800 would render it impotent.
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The NASDAQ Composite (which is going to get affected strongly after tomorrow's AAPL earnings) is likewise beneath its ~2,420 horizontal line. We've also got the advantage of being at the upper end of that channel you see.