And, the most important of all - the S&P 500. I think another 30 points of padding are within easy reach. We'll have to see how things look if/when we get there, but my guess at this point is that the bulls are in for their ninety-fifth instance of disappointment.
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And a shout out to mole over at Evil Speculator - you are sounding a little down, my friend! I am completely addicted to your wave count charts, and I love your writing style. I hope you keep your blog going strong. I think it's terrific, and I wish you well with it.
Posted: 03:30 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
一月 08, 2009 - 03:40 下午Next Direction?Chippity chop, chop, chop, chop. And so it goes. The big news Friday morning is going to be the employment report. The history of this lately has been pretty nasty.
010http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3336
This is bound to cause fireworks. My intuition is that it would take a shocking report to really get the market moving down hard. Anything less-than-shocking will be seen as "good news" and cause a bounce.
But how much of a bounce? Just look at how 'trapped' the market is right now. First, look at the daily chart of the /ES:
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That seems relatively bullish, doesn't it? So long as it holds above 886.50, the ES looks like a pretty good buy, and if it gets above 942.75, the bulls will go wild. But let's take a closer look.
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Posted: 03:40 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
一月 03, 2009 - 06:09 上午CautionHaving gone through all the index charts, it's evident to me that we're at the first test of the Inauguration Rally - - as you will see in the charts below, prices are butting up against Fibonaccis, trendlines, or both.
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Also, the ES (e-mini S&P contract) looks more than a little extended. The breakout from this triangle was very late, and it wouldn't be hard to see this fizzle back to 900; continued strength on Monday and a break above the lines in the aforementioned charts would add confidence to this rally making its way to 1,000.
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My energy call last week was quite good, although (shame on me) I sold my DIG early on Friday for no worthwhile reason. Setting that aside, it seems the prices (having moved from about $66 to $80 very quickly) are due for a softening.
My energy call last week was quite good, although (shame on me) I sold my DIG early on Friday for no worthwhile reason. Setting that aside, it seems the prices (having moved from about $66 to $80 very quickly) are due for a softening.
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Added to which, the VIX is back down to "pre-breakout" levels. Although 39.19 was sky-high in 2007, for Q4 2008 it was never that low.
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I continue to hold gold shorts, as well as DZZ (double-bearish gold ETF), and these $XAU and $HUI charts, I think, help bolster my rationale.
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So I'm regarding the rally at this point with a dose of skepticism. Monday is when everyone is basically "back to work" after two weeks of holiday, and we'll finally see some real volume. If prices are squishy, it may be time to go to the short side again.
Posted: 06:09 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
十二月 27, 2008 - 03:51 下午If Last Week's Lows Hold.......I haven't really gone through all my positions to get a sense, from a "bottom-up" perspective, of the market; I will say, however, that given the recent strength in energies and commodities, a new trading year starting this Friday, and the failure of a "terminal end" to 2008 transforming, I am tilting more heavily bullish. Simply stated, if last week's lows hold, the likelihood of a robust move higher in January strikes me as pretty solid.
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This graph is, to me, particularly alluring.
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My "early" positions on this bullish notion are focused in energy; I fear that, if I'm right, I may have to exit my many gold shorts earlier than I planned.
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I'll see you Monday morning, in what will be another relatively quiet week; we don't really get back to normal markets until Monday, January 5th.
Posted: 03:51 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
十二月 26, 2008 - 12:40 下午Prepping for JanuaryAs I've said many times before, I think 2009's arrival will mark an important psychological reason for stocks to be bought. I'd like to take advantage of that phenomenon, thus I have switched my ES position from short (covered profitably @ 867) to long (same price point). OIH's good performance thus far gives me some reassurance that the markets have been beaten to the point that sellers, for now, are exhausted. I have also closed out my positions in FXP, SRS, and GG (first two long; last one short).
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Posted: 12:40 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
十二月 26, 2008 - 10:25 上午Going Long DIG, OIH
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Posted: 10:25 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
十二月 18, 2008 - 03:44 下午ThursdayMy "remainder of 2008" bearishness was the right tack today, as the Dow lost a couple hundred more points. I imagine as we approach the endpoint of the year, tax-loss selling (and, let's face it, there are a lot of losses to take) is going to generate selling pressure. As for interest rates, we took yet another plunge. Even the ten-year note is yielding just 2%, a record low.
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I used to follow the NZD/USD with as much interest as I currently follow the EUR/USD; take note how the recent surge helped it tag the 50% retracement (which was strong support before), but now it's starting to fall away again.
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Likewise, commodities - - - which in the eyes of the $CRX climbed over 40% in just one month's time! - - seem to have hit a brick wall.
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My precious metals short did well today, but today's drop definitely took the "froth" out of the recent rise. Let's see if there's more downside to come; I imagine there is.
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I've got a couple of index-based positions. One is a smallish short on the ES (12 contracts), and another is a decent-sized block of puts on the FXI. Here's a look at the Chinese market which seems pretty toppy to me.
I've got a couple of index-based positions. One is a smallish short on the ES (12 contracts), and another is a decent-sized block of puts on the FXI. Here's a look at the Chinese market which seems pretty toppy to me.
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The Dow, likewise, can't seem to get past that ~9,000 level. If it did, it would have a decent change of crawling to just beneath 10,000; as it is now, it's looking pretty feeble.
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And oil - - simply amazing - - has turned from darling (first half of this year) to dog (second half). This poor old critter is just coughing up blood.
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A fellow Sloper put together a video he asked me to post; he does all the singing and guitar, and for you Neil Young fans (I confess, I'm not into him, but I know some folks are), you might get a kick out of this:
午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
十二月 04, 2008 - 09:08 上午Vulnerable $MIDI am having a beast of a time looking at indexes. They are completely in no man's land; there is no clear direction either up or down. If I was looking for a bearish opportunity, I guess the $MID would take the winning spot, only because its chart is cleanest to me.
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By the way, could someone - anyone - please explain to me why EUR/USD is going gangbusters.........
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.....all things related to oil and commodities aren't doing a damn thing?
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Huh??
Posted: 09:08 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
十二月 03, 2008 - 09:10 上午Humpty HumpSo far, so good. The "backing and filling" process is making some headway, and I've increased my DBA exposure. I like how OIH is shaping up.
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I've said it before, and I'll keep saying it........if there's going to be a rally, commodities are going to lead the way. And if there's going to be a rally, it's going to be a barnstormer.
I still have a very balanced portfolio - - each chart based on its own merits - - but if we do indeed continue to firm up and move higher, it's going to keep tilting to the bull side, all with the aim of an exit early next year as we move toward what may be the bearish opportunity of a lifetime. But that's going to be a while (at least measured in SlopeTime).
Posted: 09:10 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
十一月 24, 2008 - 08:12 上午Shorting OIHI mentioned last week that I thought OIH would fight its way back to about $78. Well, it has. I consider this a very safe level to short, and I am doing so in a big way. I am not getting fancy with any DUG or whatever; just straight-up shorting OIH with a stop at $79.
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Posted: 08:12 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
十一月 22, 2008 - 03:40 下午
Looking at the SPY in a larger context, as I've pointed out, the rise in the late 1990s was pretty relentless, but that also means there's virtually nothing in the way of price support on the way down.
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My dread fear is really simple; there's nothing conflicted about it: the market rockets higher for a few days, effectively (a) blasting me out of my shorts and puts, their profits having turned into losses and, simultaneously (b) being completely empty-handed of any long positions. My nightmare would be for any meaningful portion of my substantial (but hard-won) gains of 2008 to get nuked. I just won't stand for it. I have thus (yet again) hedged my bearish portfolio with a few large ultra ETFs and some stocks which, in the context of a strong push higher, would zoom up in value. Some of these are items like ANF and AA, which have simply gotten creamed over the past couple of months:
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And others, like BAC, are at "interesting" technical levels of support:
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Most stocks - - indeed, a very large percentage of those that I follow - look like AES. That is, (a) long-term bearish pattern; (b) short term "churning", suggesting an attempt to base; (c) the potential for a set-up of an incredible short opportunity, if equities in general do push higher.
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I'm not usually a person who pays a lot of attention to sentiment indicators, but those I have seen recently make a strong case for the bullish argument. Just about everyone has assumed the world is about to end. With that kind of mentality, it's easy to understand how the simplest (and, frankly, irrelevant) smidgen of news, such as the candidate of Treasury Secretary, can suddenly make the market blast 500 points higher in the span of an hour. That's not the kind of windstorm I want to be caught in with a 100% bearish portfolio.
Anyway, I can't say to you if I'm feeling really bearish or really bullish. If pressed, I guess I'd say my feeling is we'll get a final plunge in the early part of this week and, at long last, can start to push higher in a big wave 4. I hope it works out that way, because this market is absolutely dying for some kind of consistency, since it has been chewing virtually all traders to pieces lately.
Posted: 03:40 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
十一月 21, 2008 - 09:48 上午
十一月 20, 2008 - 06:44 上午http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2793&state=present&height=600&width=600
One key element, of course, is the Euro/USD relationship. Watch this triangle for a potential upside breakout.
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十一月 05, 2008 - 09:56 上午Short OilTo those who like to chastise me for having more than three or four positions, here's something to tick you off: I have 183 now. Zowie.
Oil looks like a great short.
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I can't fathom what people were thinking when they said the S&P would blast up just as vigorously as we fell down. I think we're going to see 5,500 next year on the Dow. Whether or not we're going to get a multi-month rally between now and then isn't something I am sure about. For the moment, I am quite short, although I still have a little more than fifty bullish positions based on the strength of the chart.
Posted: 09:56 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
十一月 03, 2008 - 05:47 下午Novus Ordo SeclorumThe next 48 hours are going to be terribly revealing - - it will be fascinating to see how the markets react to the election results. I imagine any big move will peter out by the middle of Thursday. If we get a sharp rally, I will take that as an opportunity to (a) sell off some of my more profitable longs (b) get into more short positions. As you can see from my watch lists, I have a bevy on both sides of the aisle. In just one of my accounts, I have 70 longs and 57 shorts! It's quite a mix. And even though 53.68 seems high on the VIX, we've come down over 40% from the peak. A big upward surge in equities could push the VIX down to under 40, which I'd take as an even better opportunity to short.
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I remain long FXP and FXP calls. Some people have complained about losing money on this. What, do you want to catch it at the exact right second? I don't mind some froth. I feel good about the possibilities of this short.
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The big ETFs are all mashed against their 23.6% retracement levels. An election surge would easily kick these up to the next level higher, but I'm already entering some put positions just in case we fall.
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The ES e-mini has been boxed into an 825-1000 range for a couple of weeks now. The "exciting" part of this phase of the bear market ended October 10th. We've just been farting around ever since.
To quote Trading Goddess - - look at the volume! Or lack thereof. Today was the lamest volume since August, and that's saying something.
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Here's yet another view of a major index. Each 1,000 will hold as resistance, or we'll take a final fly up to about 1070.
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My Dow Jones utility short (via SDP) is a favorite of mine. Even if we surge up to 415, I'm hanging on.
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I did after all wind up buying puts on the OIH. I'm somewhat conflicted about this, because crude oil could make a major push higher. I've got a relatively tight stop on these puts at 102.92, which was October 21st's high.
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Finally, just in case you missed my little video creation from Halloween night............it's worth your time:
In turn, the Dow itself has some pretty serious overhead resistance at 10,100-10250 (allow me to take this moment to back away from my "multi-month rally" comments; it all depends on how fast things move; if we had another day like today, it would be time to short indexes again!)
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Take note of the retracements I've highlighted on the $TRAN. We bounced off the lower one today, and I'd say we've got an easy ride to the upper one, at around 4,150.
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It sounds crazy, but I'm especially bullish on the financials. Just look at that tweezer bottom. In fact, I had an interesting screw-up today; I meant to buy $11,000 of MBI; I accidentally bought 11,000 shares instead. Whoops. I hope we don't get any suprirsing news before I get a chance to "right-size" that position tomorrow.
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The $UTIL isn't terribly far away from being shortable again. I'd get interested around 415. If it blew past it, I'd get super interested at 460.
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The EFA is one of those items which could have months of fighting higher before it ultimately exhausts itself.
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Looking at tech stocks, they could either (a) go up a lot; or (b) go up really a lot; it depends on which resistance level stops them.
Looking at tech stocks, they could either (a) go up a lot; or (b) go up really a lot; it depends on which resistance level stops them.
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A different view into this same notion is afforded by the $COMPQ. As I sit here, I'd use 2,000 as a "get-out" point.
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Ah, and OIH, our dear nemesis - - our friend and foe. Since this finally seems to have shaped up, we could get to $110 without much effort -- maybe even a skosh higher.
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And, more broadly, I'd say the commodities market are looking really exciting for short-term upside.
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Just to hit on my financialy bullishness again, here's the KBW Bank Sector Index which I think could push into a hearty, sustained rally.
Just to hit on my financialy bullishness again, here's the KBW Bank Sector Index which I think could push into a hearty, sustained rally.
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Let's take one last look at a major ETF - this time the SPY. The RSI and Bollingers are good and solid here; we could see the SPY at 110 without much difficulty at all - - if people get especially excited, 120 isn't going to be a problem.
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I'll close by saying this..........I have a bulging treasure chest of symbols that will be incredibly, amazing, delicious shorts when the price is right. Some may take months to "ferment"; others, weeks; a few, maybe even days. I was short COH earlier today, and I covered it at a great profit; it blew over 20% higher, so thank goodness for nimbleness. But the fact is that if this sucker gets back to about $23, it will be delicious to short. That kind of price isn't far away.
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So.........thank you all for being here.......a big part of my success comes from listening to the wiser folks who frequent the board (or, like molecool, have their own superb blogs). I thank you. My family thanks you. And my bulging accounts thank you. Good night! And take pity on those who were caught short..........
十月 27, 2008 - 02:56 下午Despair JonesJust a reminder for those who use twitter that you can follow me. I don't send tweets that often, but sometimes they are - in retrospect - pretty prescient!
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2508
Looking back to the 19th, it's incredible what has happened, and how fast it has happened. Look at the tinted circle on the left and then the one (much lower) on the right. In the course of just five weeks, this index has lost nearly 50% of its value. Of course, the put options have gone up thousands of percent. But let's not go there.
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In spite of a pretty sucky day (up hugely earlier, down hard later), my disposition toward the market is pretty much the same - - long equities, long energy, long gold, and short the dollar. Things are even more "stretched" to the downside than when I wrote about it this weekend.
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I haven't touched anything in Asia, either long or short - - as I mentioned last week, there's really nothing but air at this point.
I haven't touched anything in Asia, either long or short - - as I mentioned last week, there's really nothing but air at this point.
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As for OIH - - again, this is my "keystone" position, and if/when it does bounce, it's going to fly higher. But we're at a pretty critical juncture. Another weak day tomorrow could completely dash my hopes for a good trade here.
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I rarely mention the $SOX, but this is another index which is positioned for a possibly strong bounce. Indeed, it actually went up today a little, which in this market is absolutely extraordinary.
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My dollar short isn't doing well, but I'm hanging on. This rally is going to break Real Soon Now (tm).
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We could all use a little humor. So let's have at it.......
十月 27, 2008 - 10:20 上午OIH Showing a PulseMy largest position is long OIH. Things are finally starting to stabilize a bit and perhaps even form a bit of a base. If the market could manage, say, three up days - - - even small ones - - it would be a tremendous tonic for investors. It doesn't have to be an explosion higher. But if you had a few days of the Dow up even 30 or 40 points each, people would really calm down.
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Posted: 10:20 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
十月 23, 2008 - 03:54 下午ProbabilitiesI don't think there's a person on the planet that doesn't want a sensible, calm market to return. This is getting more insane every day. The VIX almost went into the triple digits today. You can see by the candlestick, and the huge shadow lines, how completely uncertain and volatile everything is.
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As I've been mentioning, there are signs that things may be getting ready to turn around, at least for a little while. The battered Eurodollar is basing a bit.
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And the even more-battered gold is at technically significant levels to suggest a bounce.
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Crude oil, only a few months thought to be headed toward $200, is at its 25% median line, thus providing a possible bounce to $80 or even $90.
Crude oil, only a few months thought to be headed toward $200, is at its 25% median line, thus providing a possible bounce to $80 or even $90.
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As for the equity markets, these are at extremes too. Witness the $MSH, which is getting near its own retracement level.
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And the NASDAQ 100 has its entire Fibonacci fan structure from 2002 as a "backstop', given the lows reached today.
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Need another example? Here's the $MID, pushing right up against its retracement and supported by a large amount of trading activity from 2000-2002.
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As you can probably divine, I am position for (a) high energy (b) higher equities. I am not ruling out the possibility of one more severe leg down, and I sold some NQ after the close today at a little over 1250 to hedge myself for this possibility. But, by and large, I think we are close to a bottom for the year. I find the bullish prospects for commodities especially interesting. Although I don't intend to trade wheat, I find this major commodity to be an interesting proxy:
I only "discovered" the UDN and UUP equities this week, thanks to Slopers, and I own a large quantity of puts on UUP (in other words, I am expecting the dollar to fall).
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The whole subject of commodities is a bit of a challenge, because on one hand it's easy to consider them severely "oversold" (whatever that means..........) but on the other, looking at this $CRX graph, thereall we're due for at some point is a technical point. But in terms of price action, there is virtually no "plateau" available to hold this up.
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For those of you who have been suffereing the data problems in MarketMatrix or ProphetCharts this week, understand that I feel your pain. I use this stuff too, and it's maddening for me to be seeing these problems. I don't usually use this blog as a place for technical updates, but I know many of you use ProphetCharts and - - for intraday graphs and live quotes - - have seen many problems the past few days. We are deploying some changes this afternoon which may give us a better Friday. We won't know for sure until the trading day begins, but we have been working almost around-the-clock on these issues. Obviously we're not going to quite until we know everything is working smoothly.
Posted: 03:54 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
十月 22, 2008 - 09:02 上午Commodities StinkI had a large number of tiny positions in all kinds of battered commodity-related issues. I've been stopped out of pretty much all of them. Luckily, my mombo DUG, SDS, and QID plays make those losses seem like rounding error. All the same, it's kind of shocking to see how stocks like these just can't find a bottom.
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I don't think any one instrument has made as much money for me this year as OIH, however. It's been beautiful.
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Take that, peak oil crowd!
Posted: 09:02 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink