三月 25, 2009 - 09:17 上午Remain CALMThis looks like a good short, although my stop is very wide - 30.56
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Posted: 09:17 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 25, 2009 - 08:09 上午Fakeout or Breakout?Another strong day on the market, thanks for the fairy-dust that Washington continues to sprinkle. Let's take a look at the /ES:
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3887
There was a very clear breakout above Monday's 821 high today, but then it sank beneath that level. It pushed above again, even higher, then sank beneath again. As I am typing this, it is pushing above a third time.
Is this going to be a true breakout and perhaps carry us up as high 850, or are the bulls reaching exhaustion?
Posted: 08:09 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 25, 2009 - 06:25 上午X Marks the SpotLooking at the S&P 500 index, I noticed a convergence approach on two trendlines of resistance: the first one is the trendline established by the general downtrend from October forward (we have, by definition, been beneath it during the downturn of the past six months), and the second is defined by what had been the bottom in November when an uptrend seemed to be taking hold (this uptrend was terminated February 17th).
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3886
My conclusion: getting above 850 in the coming weeks looks unlikely.
Posted: 06:25 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 24, 2009 - 06:43 下午The Wall of WorryStrangely, I have very little to say tonight. Maybe I'm so relieved today was profitable (in sharp contrast to yesterday) that I just want to take a breather.
I did monkey around a bit with the /ES graph over the past several weeks, and I noticed a couple of different things:
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3885
The first thing I noticed is that we've had five "surprise lunges" (the most recent of all being Sunday/Monday's, which was huge). After each of these lunges there is a farting-around consolidation period that lasts anywhere from one session to nearly a week. Today marked the first today of our current consolidation session. There doesn't seem to be much rhyme or reason as to the relationship between lunge size and consolidation time-length. It's all news-driven.
The other thing I noticed was that the velocity of the price rise we've seen (which was well in excess of 20% for this rally) has been dying down. Notice the angle of the red lines I've drawn. Although I don't doubt (much) that we'll ultimately get substantially higher in months to come, this particular leg of the countertrend sure seems to be running out of steam.
The troubling thing for me is that I'm a bear market addict. The excitement and quick profits we saw in the autumn were electrifying. Now it's more of a "grind-it-out" tug-of-war between bulls and bears. I have worked very hard to pick a lot of stocks which seem to have the best prospects for strength and a lot of shorts which have the best prospects for weakness. But the most I can hope for, based on that, on any given day, is someday's change. If I do things really right, if the market is up1%, I'll be up some portion of that (let's call it 1/2%), and if the market is down 1%, I'll still be up some portion of that (again, let's call it 1/2%).
Of course, I cannot possibly hope to be in the green every day, but if I can manage to make a profit most days (again, a muted profit, since I'm hedged), I'll be in good shape. But picking so many stocks and having a bifurcated portfolio to deal with what we're probably facing over the next six months is a pain in the neck. Oh, well. The market isn't going to pay me for just sitting around. Sometimes it's hard work. This is one of those times.
Posted: 06:43 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 24, 2009 - 01:10 下午Long Ideas (3 of 3)I'll just say briefly "that's more like it!" regarding today. I am very hedged (lots of longs, lots of shorts) but still tilted somewhat bearish, so today was a welcome relief from yesterday. I also had some pretty adept /ES trades that clawed back some of those losses from yesterday. Anyway, here are a few more long ideas to occupy you while I go ski some more.....
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Posted: 01:10 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 24, 2009 - 12:19 下午Long Ideas (2 of 3)
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Posted: 12:19 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 24, 2009 - 10:12 上午Long Ideas (1 of 3)
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Posted: 10:12 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 24, 2009 - 09:49 上午Short Ideas (3 of 3)
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Posted: 09:49 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 24, 2009 - 09:09 上午Short Ideas (2 of 3)
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Posted: 09:09 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 24, 2009 - 05:18 上午Easing to 800After a day like yesterday, it was a relief to wake up to see the /ES somewhat softer. I shorted 20 /ES in my personal account just after the regular market close yesterday, and that has managed to patch up a bit of the damage. Given the current environment, I am keeping my /ES goals quite modest, with a target on this position of just over 800, since I now consider decent support (given its important role as resistance until it blasted through it yesterday).
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3868
Good luck today; we all could use some!
Posted: 05:18 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 23, 2009 - 06:00 下午National Kool-AidI imagine today was really hard on a lot of Slopers. It was no picnic for me. I haven't done my thorough examination of charts (and, amazingly, I got stopped out of very little today), but I wanted to just share some thoughts in bullet form. These are absolutely in no particular order.......
[*]The multi-trillion dollar creation of money out of thin air by the government is the one and only reason the market is going up. It is obvious by now that the government will stop at absolutely nothing to create short-term comfort for investors.[*]The creation of all these trillions will come back to haunt us, but it will be a number of months - - maybe not even until next year! - - that this haunting will take place. In the meantime, the markets have plenty of room on the upside to make life miserable for the bears.[*]The key to surviving a market like this is to be flexible. I am known as a very bearish fellow, but I'm not so daft as to take bearishness to dogmatism. I have long positions in nearly 80 different securities, and I intend to hold on to these for as many weeks or months as they survive not getting stopped out. These are not one- or two-day trades. These were bought as "keepers" for the push higher.[*]As I've mentioned a couple of times already, the most alluring group on the long side appears to me to be semiconductors. I also find some financials to be pretty compelling including - - - and may God forgive me - - Capital One Financial (COF).[*]Here's probably the most important point of all - - - the glory days for the bears will return. I wish I could just go into a deep sleep and have them wake me when the Dow is around 10,000 again, because I am horribly impatient. The prospect of waiting around for months for the uber-bear to return really depresses me. But the time will come, and the opportunities will be glorious. Until it comes, let's all try to take advantage of whatever upside there is.[*]In the immediate moment, I think the /ES is likely to return to about 800 (which has now changed coats from Resistance to Support) before pushing higher.Again, I know there is a lot of pain out there, but as long as sensible stops and sensible sizing are used, you can always live to fight another day. Last Wednesday stunk. Today stunk. But the market is going to do what it's going to do, and to my way of thinking, using charts intelligently is the best way, in the long-run, to survive and thrive. I'm licking my wounds a bit, but I'm ready to take on the market again in the morning. Let's none of us get overly bearish or bullish. Let's take each day at a time, and let's keep learning from one another. We're here to support one another, and it's never more important than at times when the going seems toughest.
Posted: 06:00 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 23, 2009 - 01:18 下午WowWhat a day. Incredible!
The only two bright spots in my day were (a) wonderful gains in my IRA, which is entirely comprised of crummy little penny stocks; (b) the longs in my big account, which saved my butt.
My IRA is at a new record high (even after suffering some FAZ damage before it was stopped out) and my big account stayed flat, but my two "all short" accounts suffered horribly. All in all, I'm down about 9% from my lifetime portfolio peak. Not devastating, but not worth celebrating either.
I'm going to ski. I will do a post later. But I need a break from charts and 55 point moves in the S&P!!!
Posted: 01:18 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 23, 2009 - 12:49 下午Favorite Lottery LongsNot to make everyone think I've gone uber-bullish, but on a day like this, I'd rather focus on the good stuff! My IRA has 27 long positions; one of them is FAZ, which isn't really bullish, but the other 26 are. Here are some favorites:
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Posted: 12:49 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 24, 2009 - 08:40 上午Short Ideas (1 of 3)
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Posted: 08:40 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 23, 2009 - 11:36 上午ASIA BreakoutWith the theme of, "if you can't beat 'em, join 'em", I offer up another bullish suggestion.
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Posted: 11:36 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 23, 2009 - 08:51 上午Longs and StopsI am pretty happy with my longs, even with the big push up today, so I'm hanging on to all of them. I am adding these, with these respective stops.
BHI 25.68
CAG 13.99
CX 3.93
DCM 13.25
DOW 5.88
ELON 5.12
MCHP 17.54
TWX 6.94
WFR 12.99
Posted: 08:51 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 23, 2009 - 07:44 上午Wednesday RevisitedNot a good day for me so far! The enthusiasm for the Geithner plan is running rampant, and the /ES is threatening the 800 level again. I'm actually going to buy about ten good-looking longs, but on a day like this, short opportunities are sometimes better "buys" at these elevated levels. Here are a few ideas. (Side note: being on vacation this week, posts will be less frequent).
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Posted: 07:44 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 21, 2009 - 08:36 上午Right and WrongHello from my snowy base of operations (well, not particularly, but it will be once the storm blows in tonight) at
During the long drive up here, I was talking with Mrs. Bear about how this blog has put me into a constant state of self-examination with respect to my trading. I think that's healthy, and here are some of the takeaways for me from the prior trading week:
Right Moves
[*]Being Hedged - I don't have a hedge fund (although I occasionally toy with the idea), but from what I understand, the vast majority of "hedge" funds aren't that at all - - in other words, instead of being long and short, most funds are simply long, which is why their performance stinks just as bad (or worse) than the market in general. I have a wide variety of carefully-chosen longs and shorts (although good longs are pretty sparse these days). The upswing earlier in the week wasn't nearly as bad as if I was entirely short.[*]Not Quitting on a Symbol - in this case, our old friend FAZ. I had been hurt by FAZ earlier in the week, and late Wednesday night, I swore off it for a while. But after examining the financial stocks, and seeing how they were basically completely hosed, I figured FAZ was my best way to profit. A 40%+ gain in just two trading sessions proved it was right to be forgiving.[*]Recognizing the Strength was Unsustainable - Wednesday evening was a very important period of examination for me, because I really wanted to see, on a bottom-to-top basis, what the market was doing. I was convinced that there was no real basis for all the strength we had been seeing besides the printing-money-from-thin-air lunacy that is eventually going to ruin this nation. I was able to be boldly bearish the rest of the week, which believe me, took some fortitude.Wrong Moves
[*]Overweighting - My portfolio allocation model, if you can call it that, can be written on the back of a business card with a crayon. I typically buy $5,000 of an option, $10,000 of an individual equity, $100,000 of an ETF, and anywhere from 10 to 20 /ES contracts. I got way too enthusiastsic with some of my shorts, and that was a big mistake. General Electric, for instance, was something I felt was really going to tumble, so I shorted hundreds of thousands of dollars of it. When it (briefly) pushed higher, I got stopped out with really ugly losses (and, just to add salt to the wound, GE has indeed resumed its weakness). No matter how great a chart looks, there is no reason to go insane with the size of the position. I still think GE is heading to $4.xx before this bear market is completely finished, but an overly-large position (and an overly-tight stop to protect that position) was a deadly combination.[*]Letting Fear Lead to Overly Tight Stops - This really only applies to the /ES, since I was pretty disciplined about my stops, but after the Wednesday nastiness, I was too antsy about my /ES trading, which left a pretty decent amount of profits on the table. In retrospect, shorting the market on either Thursday or Friday mornings was pretty much a technical no-brainer, but I only enjoyed a portion of the potential profits from such a trade.My main conclusion about the market these days is this - - - the mere fact that I am able to find 10 great short setups for every 1 long setup tells me this market needs to soften up some more before it really rallies. I am having a devil of a time finding any good longs, and I think the reason is that we don't have a base. Those are five really important words, so I'll type them again: We. Don't. Have. A. Base. Look at what the S&P did in 2002. That, my friends, is a base. You have repeated attempts to crack lower, each failing, and you have an important higher low. There is truly a floor from which stocks were able to leap higher.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3854
Now take a look at the recent activity on the S&P and tell me, with a straight face, we have a base.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3855
All we've got is a steady plunge down from 800 and a steady fight right back to the same level. The most "comfortable" outcome for me is continued weakness to somewhere at or just above the 666 low and then a move higher. Hopefully once we're down in the devil's territory again, we can find some stocks worth buying. As it is now, I've got shorts up the yin-yang, and I think next week is going to be really good for the bears.
Posted: 08:36 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 23, 2009 - 06:08 上午Triple-Top or Breakout Coming?The /ES has been strong ever since trading started Sunday evening. The principal question is whether or not we'll push past 801.50 or lose momentum from here. As I've been saying frequently recently, looking at individual stocks, I am finding ten great shorts for every decent long, so it's still very hard for me to conceive, on a bottom-to-top examination, where the strength could come from (although, ironically, I think one more bout of weakness could make a lot of financials very compelling buys, in addition to semiconductors, which are the best sector I've seen so far).
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3858
Posted: 06:08 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 20, 2009 - 08:05 上午Our Favorite White Whales
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Posted: 08:05 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 20, 2009 - 07:06 上午Energy Looks Prone to WeaknessI was going to do a post titled "Maybe Atilla is Right". As I'm looking at all my index charts, I'm impressed by just how much resistance there is in this market, and how poised equities seem for a renewed turn downward. I'm not ready to join that camp, but if the market does really plunge, we've got to throw the guy a parade or something, because everyone else (including permabears EWT) have thrown in the towel.
Energies have been good for me on the long side over the past week, but I think they're about to turn weak. I shorted a bunch of XLE this morning. OIH, shown below, also looks it has a very serious resistance level at 88.15
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Posted: 07:06 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 19, 2009 - 05:00 下午Deep Dive on the S&P 500Today was FAZtastic.It didn't undo the damage from yesterday; that was a shotgun blast to the chest. But I did claw my way one-third back from yesterday's devastation, and it's a good (albeit exhausting) feeling. FAZ played a role, and I'm glad I decided to give the old bugger another chance. I really did feel financials were full of hot air, and some of that air was allowed to escape today. Below is the FAZ, as well as its ever-increasing volume.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3846
I wanted to focus on the S&P 500, since its direction basically determines all of our fates. Let's face it, no matter how bullish or bearish an individual chart is, its fate is going to be largely at the mercy of the broad market. So understanding the likely direction of the S&P is critical to profitable trading. Here's what the S&P has looked like over the past half year. One interesting thing people have quickly forgotten is that people were having heart attacks last November that the S&P broke 800, but it only was there for two days. It just spend the entire past month below 800, and people have become accustomed to it. In fact, they were thrilled it was wayyyyyyyyyyyy up at 800 again! How soon people re-acclimate.
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But I want to point out that, besides the line in the sand at 800 (which is mildly tough; I wish I had shorted more /ES this morning when it was bobbling around 800, but yesterday's wounds left me too sheepish). The more important levels are 881.38 and, the really important one, 1014.14. The area around 1000, which is both Fibonacci retracement as well as the underbelly of a huge descending trendline, is going to be the Incredible Hulk to the bulls out there. I hope I can be a decent trader as we might our way up to 1,000 this year, but God Help The Bulls when we get there, because I will turn into a snarling maniac. I won't be talking about 666. I'll be talking about 400.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3848
Here is sorta kinda how I think things will play out. Because I am blessed with an amazing intellect, I have created this using the WAG technique (ahem; Wild Ass Guess). The timing is probably more squished than it should be; a plunge around September/October would be more poetic; but the chart below smells about right ot me in terms of what 2009 holds.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3849
My main challenge, as I imply, is to trade well on the way up. I'm a better bear than bull, and I really, really need to fight back my bearish nervousness about holding stocks. That's it from me for now. Good night!
Posted: 05:00 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 19, 2009 - 12:57 下午I'm Too SXCI For This ChartI'm in a series of back-to-back meetings, but in the meantime, here's an interesting stock I own. It's one of the few charts I've seen lately which looks like an honest-to-goodness buy-and-hold.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3843&state=original&height=600&width=600
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Posted: 12:57 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 19, 2009 - 09:22 上午Much Better Day So FarWell, to all those who gobbled up financial shares yesterday, particularly near the peak - congratu-f*cking-lations. Enjoy your worthless stock. So far, it's a much better day for me. The same can't be said for the P.O.S. symbol C:
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3840
Posted: 09:22 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 19, 2009 - 04:36 上午Bemis and ButtheadI guess I was more troubled by yesterday's Fed-rape than I thought, since I was up at 3:30. I did go through all my Core List of charts last night, and I am more convinced than ever that this rally over the past 7 days is based on vapor, paper, and ink. There's nothing real about it. I saw plenty of good short opportunities, and hardly any good long opportunities.
I am not blind to what a good buy looks like. I thought /ES was a great buy down at 670, but I screwed up that trade royally.was a simple act of arithmetic. But, bullish as everyone suddenly is, there is no way I am going to be buying into the /ES at these levels.
Here's an example of one of the fine shorts I uncovered yesterday evening:
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Now that's a nice, clean chart.
As for the wonderful world of FAZ and FAS, I've had enough of those for a while. The shenanigans going on from Bernanke and Geithner make it closer to gambling than trading. I'm going to focus more on the basics. I do think financials as a whole are being puffed up worse than any other sector, but FAZ, from a chartist's point-of-view, is in a no man's land.
Anyway, good luck today.............it's got to be better than yesterday. I hope!
Posted: 04:36 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 18, 2009 - 04:49 下午The US DollarThe dollar plunged huge today (which pushed gold sky-high). In the world of FX, this kind of move made people rich (or broke) very quickly. It would be like Google going up $200. You just don't see moves like this very often. (This graph is the EUR/USD, which naturally exploded higher today).
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3838
There's a lot of room for the EUR/USD to ease back. I'd be a lot more excited buying into this market if the dollar consolidated back to about $1.32 on this chart. That would make a really beautiful confirmed saucer breakout.
That's probably it for me for the night. What a day, eh? I'm going to go decompress.
Posted: 04:49 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 18, 2009 - 03:05 下午The Two-Edged SwordIt is very, very easy to enjoy trading when you're making money. It's very easy to take pleasure from trading when the market is your ATM machine.
But you've got to be able to deal with things going against you as well. I have, over the years, been able to almost completely tamp down my emotions, either positive or negative, with respect to how a trading day goes. If I'm making hand over fist, sure, it's a kick, and I get a little excited in my writing, but I'm not going to go nuts about it ("go nuts" meaning rushing into foolish trades, buying a sports car, etc.)
By the same token, if I have a horrible day, like today, I'm not going to tear my hair out, stop trading, or curse myself. I take each day rationally, and I let my stops do my thinking for me.
Even in the course of a single day, the swings can be horrific. This morning, I was delighted with how well I had nailed my precious metals shorts. By the end of the day, those same profits have disappeared and turned into five figures of losses.
Emotions are the enemy of sensible trading. So are overly-tight stops! Here's the very definition of regret - -as you'll recall from my post a mere eight days ago, I bought - yes, bought! - 20 /ES at 670 (over 120 points ago!) At the time, the "dip" was easy to see:
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3836
You will have to use a microscope to find this "plunge" in the grander scheme of things:
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3837
Say what you will, the rally over the past week has come from one thing and one thing only: the government's willingness to roll the printing presses and throw fiat currency at the problem. This rally isn't based on earnings, growth, or any other real business reason. It's based on the government continuing to mortgage the future.
The reasons hardly matter, though. The goal is to use charts to make money. Today, I failed at that. But I'm not mad at myself, because I did everything right. As long as I behave rationally, I have no quarrel with myself. Tomorrow is another day. And we've all been yammering about "S&P 800" around here. Well, it's here now. Do with it what you will.
Posted: 03:05 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 18, 2009 - 09:59 上午GLD Channel BrokenJust one more piece of evidence for the gold-bear disposition. I'm more bearish than ever. Target: ~$720 on gold.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3835&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3835&state=present&height=600&width=600
Oh, and for those of you who might of thought I dont' know what G. Gordon Liddy looks like. Come on. Give me more credit than that.
Posted: 09:59 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 18, 2009 - 06:12 上午If-Then StatementsA trio of announcements to begin the day.
[*]We had record traffic yesterday - - over 91,000 page views. Cool! I'm not sure why. Maybe the world likes brooding bloggers;[*]I'll be in a lot of meetings today, so my musings won't be quite as frequent (yes, yes, I know, I have no credibility with statements like that);[*]I think I mentioned getting entirely out of SRS yesterday, and I also vaguely ("vague" is the key word here) thought I saw someone puzzling over my SRS position. Now I understand the confusion. I was incorrect in saying I had gotten out entirely (the trouble with over 200 positions is that it's easy to lose track!) I had two separate SRS positions of about $100k each. I closed one out entirely, and I closed half the other one and made the stop much more liberal. So, yes, I'm still in SRS, but only 1/4th as big as before.Let's take a look at a chart,shall we?
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3833
We have to keep an open mind about a variety of possibilities. Here are my thoughts about each of these:
[*]Blue arrow - this, to me, is the most logical next step in the S&P. That is, a move down to about 730, which is both a Fibonacci level as well as the breakout point from the inverted head & shoulders pattern of the /ES. I am positioned for this move.[*]Red arrow - if the blue arrow executes, this could be next, although it is a lot more "iffy." In fact, if it does this, we're all going to go a bit crazy, because it's going to be extremely difficult to tell what's next. I've tinted in the blue "mush zone" since the question on everyone's mind is going to be whether 666 (<---cue spooky music) holds or is broken. The market is going to be completely awash in angst.[*]Magenta arrow - if we do break 666 (again, music please) then we're going to accelerate downward. As I've said, oh, about eight thousand times, I think about 625 or so (plus or minus 25 points) will be the ultimate bottom for this big leg of the bear market. This, for me, would be the best of outcomes, since it would provide a fantastic opportunity to clear out of all this freakin'shorts and puts and load up on the long side.[*]Green arrow - if the market finds some reason (like the Fed's rosy announcement at 2:15 EST today) to keep pushing stocks up, this is a reasonably likely scenario. This will be a bit nerve-wracking, since 800 is such an important level. I would (nervously) be adding shorts if we made a push toward 800.[*]White arrow (in the green "mush zone") - if we do push past 800, which at this stage I find very unlikely, it'll be anyone's guess how far we go. This would wreck so many patterns and wave forms that worldwide madness may ensue on the part of chartists.So there you have it: a declaration on my part that the market is going to move up or down. And that, my friends, is the kind of bold statement which had made me the the bad boy of charting I am today.
Posted: 06:12 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 17, 2009 - 01:22 下午Dow 30 Beneath FibonacciIt may sound ironic (or even masochistic), but I'm actually more optimistic than ever about the prospect of a resumed tumble in the market. I lost money today, but only about half what I made yesterday, so over the past two days, I'm still in good shape. I also managed to preserve some profits by exiting my SRS position earlier today, since it seemed uncharacteristically weak. I trimmed my FAZ position in half, since the strength in the financials is holding up better than I imagined.
I noticed that for both the $INDU and the $TRAN, today's high price butted right up against the underside of a major Fibonacci retracement level. This retracement series spans 1974 to 2007, so it's definitely the biggie, and it's acting just like it did around January 6th of this year when it peaked. Here's the $INDU:
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3830
The 800 level on the S&P is within spitting distance. If we charge right past it, well, I guess maybe the countertrend rally we've all been waiting for is really here. If we get a meaningful failure around that level, I think we could ride the S&P back to the 730 target.
Posted: 01:22 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 17, 2009 - 11:47 上午$SPX @ Important Short-Term Crossroadshttp://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3829
Posted: 11:47 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 17, 2009 - 10:45 上午The Zonehttp://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3828
Posted: 10:45 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 17, 2009 - 09:22 上午Could FAS Be Breaking Out?It's important to keep an open mind to the markets, even when an insight may be contrary to an existing position. I have a bunch of FAZ right now (double-bearish on financials), but its dopperganger symbol, FAS, looks like it might have done a clean breakout above its descending channel.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3824
A move above 5.90 would be bullish for this vehicle. For myself, my FAZ stop is quite predictable - - 32.56.
Posted: 09:22 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 17, 2009 - 06:41 上午Low PlateauI'm going through charts with All Daily History now, which means I am seeing them back to the late 1960s (or whenever they went public). One thing that strikes me is just how far some stocks could still fall during a protracted bear market. Apple, for example, could conceivably go back into the high teens. Impossible, you say? That's not a word you should use during a market like this.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3823&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3823&state=present&height=600&width=600
Posted: 06:41 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 16, 2009 - 08:50 下午Don't Short Stocks Without ItLooks like AXP is experiencing the "GE Phenomenon" - - - kissing the underbelly of a major retracement level. Look out below.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3822&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3822&state=present&height=600&width=600
Posted: 08:50 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 16, 2009 - 06:55 下午The OTIS IndicatorIn the middle of Monday, at 1:33 EST, I said the market was going to toss its tacos. Thirteen minutes later, it reached its ultimate peak of the day, then it started plunging. A nearly 200 point rise on the Dow was laid waste.
Some people wonder what amazing indicator I must have used to pinpoint this reversal. Well, I'll reveal it to you. It's called the OTIS indicator. It is activated when I look at the screen and say, "Oh This Is Silly". This occurred when I saw what was happening with BAC, C, AIG, and a host of other good-for-nothing stocks.
And I'm being quite serious. Do you know how many of ProphetCharts' nearly 200 indicators I use? Zero. (OK, molecool, don't get excited; I mean the number zero). Zilch. Not a one.
If you ever see me putting up a stochastic or a moving average, it's just to satiate those who are hungry for less-simple charts. But I'm faking it. I don't use that stuff. At all.
Just OTIS.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3821
Posted: 06:55 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 16, 2009 - 03:01 下午What's Next?Today was a really good day for me. As I indicated, I took profits as quickly as I could on my "lottery plays" and I closed out a fair number of my regular long positions. I also amplified my shorts, particularly FAZ.
The /ES is my general guide to what equities are going to do, and the shooting star on this daily chart indicates more weakness to come.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3819
The core question is..........what happens at the ~730 level? Do we bounce? Do we plunge into the abyss? I have no idea. I will almost certainly trim certain shorts at that level - - particularly my NQ and ES shorts - - but that line in the sand is just that - a line - and not a brick wall. But it is still an important technical level to keep in mind.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3820
Whether we get the green arrow (a bounce up to 800) or a blue arrow (a plunge, thus wrecking all the beneficial bullish construction that has happened recently) remains to be seen. But I think we'll have our answer before the week is over.
Posted: 03:01 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 16, 2009 - 10:55 上午Over a BarrelSorry to obsess over CBRL, but this is a fantastic-looking short. I am adding to my short position. Stop price=30.08.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3818&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3818&state=present&height=600&width=600
Posted: 10:55 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 16, 2009 - 10:33 上午My Stoic and Deeply-Considered OpinionThis market is about to toss its tacos.
Posted: 10:33 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 16, 2009 - 10:10 上午Covering SalmonI have sold 10 of my 40 "lottery picks" in my IRA, leaving 30 in place with tighter stops.
The reason is simple - - - the runup in C and BAC is a bit insane. The one and only reason these companies still exist is because they are being artificially propped up by the government. The 100% to 150% run-ups in price over the past week are terrific, but I think they're about done.
I enjoyed gains of between 30% and 70% during the past week in my closed lottery plays, but the risk outweighs the marginal potential reward at this point. Mind you, I wish I'd held on to my FAS position. I bought it a week ago and sold it at a 30% profit, and it has continued to soar much higher. But the beauty of these lottery plays is that they are small enough to permit me to "let them ride" without causing undue risk.
I am sitting on a loss with FAZ, but I have added to this position today. I don't normally average down, but this is a position I believe is going to pay off in the end.
Posted: 10:10 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 16, 2009 - 08:41 上午SRS Defying FAZhttp://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3815
Posted: 08:41 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 16, 2009 - 07:10 上午Strong FoodsI've been stopped out of a few items this morning, all of them food-related (did people suddenly get really hungry over the weekend?) In most of these cases, I am going to re-enter the shorts with a more liberal stop.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3813&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3813&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3814&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3814&state=present&height=600&width=600
My re-entry symbols and stops are:
BWLD 44.99
DRI 34.21
DF 22.32
GMCR 44.75
Posted: 07:10 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 13, 2009 - 05:09 下午E-MinisThis will be my last post for Friday.
I "discovered" e-mini S&P futures last autumn, and I've been addicted ever since. I notice there are a few other relatively active e-mini markets, such as these:
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3807&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3807&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3808&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3808&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3809&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3809&state=present&height=600&width=600
I'd be interested in knowing your opinions (via the comments section), both good and bad, about trading these markets. I'd also be interested in knowing if there are any other juicy ones I missed. Thanks!
Posted: 05:09 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 13, 2009 - 11:21 上午Sitting Around the CBRLI know it's been a defiant mo-fo, but I just love this short.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3806&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3806&state=present&height=600&width=600
Posted: 11:21 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 13, 2009 - 10:18 上午Buying FAZ (Ultra-Bear Financials)I am buying a decent-sized chunk of FAZ (I think this is a first for me; I'm not sure if I've ever bought FAZ in the past). Setting aside the technical reasons, let's just agree on this: we all recognize that the massive bounce in the likes of BAC and C is of the deceased feline variety. Nothing has really changed.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3805&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3805&state=present&height=600&width=600
Posted: 10:18 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 13, 2009 - 08:25 上午Eyes on the Prizehttp://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3804
Posted: 08:25 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 13, 2009 - 06:53 上午Bring Good Things to LifeI am shorting GE, and I am shorting a dollar amount much larger than any amount I've ever shorted a single stock. Stop price=10.99.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3803&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3803&state=present&height=600&width=600
Posted: 06:53 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 12, 2009 - 12:44 下午FAS Pushing the ChannelWow, up about 150% in just four days! And let's remember, this is an ETF, not an option! It is pushing against its channel.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3801&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3801&state=present&height=600&width=600
Posted: 12:44 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 12, 2009 - 10:55 上午Those IRA PlaysLook at the topmost watchlist ("High Risk") and you'll see the 45 long positions I have in my IRA account. Here are a handful of charts which show the nature of these holdings (they tend to be double- or triple-bottoms or otherwise just beaten to pieces).
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3797&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3797&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3798&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3798&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3799&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3799&state=present&height=600&width=600
Posted: 10:55 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink