三月 04, 2009 - 10:29 上午Long Ideas (1 of 4)
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Posted: 10:29 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 03, 2009 - 11:42 下午Rainbow Over Palo AltoI saw this while driving through town today. Beautiful, isn't it? See you in the morning.
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Posted: 11:42 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 03, 2009 - 06:47 下午Constant CrossroadsI discovered that I had written a post in early January 2009 which I never published; I accidentally left it in draft mode. I've decided to publish it here, mostly as a comment cleaner, but also to dig up what I was thinking about a couple of months ago, for whatever it's worth.........I notice that my short suggestion of ARE was pretty danged good...
It's quite obvious to anyone watching the market that the explosive movements were a phenomenon of October and November 2008. Trading in 2009 is going to be much more of a slog, and it will be harder to make big money. That's why, slog though it may be, the market deserves more of our attention than ever, because there's still milk in the cow. We just have to know how to squeeze.
Take a look, for example, at the chart below. You can see the big plunge from September 19th through October 24th, and after a rapid, week-long climb, there's another plunge terminating November 21st. Ever since then, it's been one minor crossroad after another. The moves have been muted and choppy. Those making consistent missteps are getting chopped to pieces.
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I highlighted the pink area above for a reason. As much as I enjoyed the big drops on Wednesday and Friday of last week, we have to keep our eyes open for (yet again) some modest strength at these levels. The only reason is that the highlighted range represents decent support, and the "escape" from this zone due to the Santa Claus rally validates how relieved the market was to escape it. To be sure, the entire issue of the "credit crunch", indicated by the dramatic easing of the TED spread below, has taken a back seat to the more fundamental issues of crappy employment numbers and an earnings season which is unlikely to impress anyone.
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Taking a look at the Dow 30 average, the ride from 9,000 to 8,600 was pretty fast, and it's apparent how formidable the retracement at that level is (exact value: 9,042.08). This is the last week of the Bush administration, so it'll be interesting to see, psychologically, how much of a lift the 1/20 inauguration provides. I've been saying for months now, nothing would be better for the bears than an honest-to-goodness rally. As it is now, the market is struggling like a sick cow.
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The broader Russell index is a fine example of the recent chop. Just look at the activity from November 21st: there are ten distinctly different swings in price action: huge up, down, up, down, up, down, up, down, up..........and now down again. If you asked a third grader what was next, "up" seems to be the next logical step, unless something forceful breaks this sickly uptrend. The line at 521.46, which repelled prices last night, is the next logical hurdle.
The broader Russell index is a fine example of the recent chop. Just look at the activity from November 21st: there are ten distinctly different swings in price action: huge up, down, up, down, up, down, up, down, up..........and now down again. If you asked a third grader what was next, "up" seems to be the next logical step, unless something forceful breaks this sickly uptrend. The line at 521.46, which repelled prices last night, is the next logical hurdle.
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Ah, and my old buddy gold. I remain relatively bearish (I guess 7 on a scale of 1 to 10), but this bugger is being stubborn. A break below 253.73 on the $HUI would set things in motion nicely.
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I got prematurely excited about energy based on the strength earlier this week, but the failure to bust through the line at 88.15 was all it took to send prices softer. Equities, gold, and stocks are all wrapped up in the same conundrum - - - they want to go higher, and the market has been slowly pushing that rock up the hill - - but people are so freaked out by what's going on that there are simply too many eager sellers to let the buying build a head of steam.
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I'm just trying to keep my eye open for good positions on either side. ARE, shown below, is a prime example. I would want to be short this stock, no matter what the Dow does.
I'm just trying to keep my eye open for good positions on either side. ARE, shown below, is a prime example. I would want to be short this stock, no matter what the Dow does.
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Even though I've got a mix of long and short positions, it's evident to me that the "personality" of my holdings is definitely bear-friendly. Because on up days, my portfolio might go up a little (or down a little), but on down days, it soars higher, although the move is somewhat attenuated by my long positions, obviously. In any case, I still remain hedged, and I think it's going to be a while before I get heavy-bullish or heavy-bearish. This is still very much a trader's market and has little room for dogma.
Posted: 06:47 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 03, 2009 - 11:31 上午The Energy Bull ReturnsOK, I'm back into energy in a big way. I have bought very large positions in USO and OIH. I managed to get USO at a better price than I sold it at this morning.
I think I am going to start relying on large oil and gold trades as my principal money maker since the /ES seems to be just smashed to pieces.
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Posted: 11:31 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 03, 2009 - 10:28 上午Losing My ReligionI've mentioned True Religion (TRLG) before as a great short. I'm not sure what they do; I think they sell overpriced jeans. It doesn't matter. They're falling. I intend to cover at about $0.50.
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Posted: 10:28 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 03, 2009 - 09:27 上午Seems Like a Low-Risk /ES Day Trade Shorthttp://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3715
Posted: 09:27 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 03, 2009 - 08:21 上午There Is No Technical Support Until the Low 600shttp://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3714
Posted: 08:21 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 03, 2009 - 07:24 上午GrudgeZoneI think there's a fairly universal distaste on this board for Autozone (AZO) or, as I like to think of it, "The Stock That Cannot Go Down."
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I believe I am entitled to one completely stupid, irrational, grudge trade. I am therefore buying more puts on this thing. As for a stop price, $1,000 or so is probably right.
Posted: 07:24 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 03, 2009 - 06:15 上午Why USO?In the flurry yesterday, I didn't get a chance to explain my bullishness for USO very well. There are a few reasons:
[*]When we turn around (and we will; whether it's today or three months from now, it is inevitable), I think energy is going to be one of the first leaders;[*]For most of yesterday's vicious 300-point selloff, USO was doing an admirable job clawing its way higher or at least trying to hold on; you could almost see the "fight" in the chart during the day;[*]Simply stated, oil isn't going away; you're never going to wake up and found that crude oil has been lying all this time that, in fact, it has no energy value; there is a store of value there, and there are limits to how far it's going to go down in price (and that limit is not $0)http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3712
I think it's got a clear ride to just under $28 at least. As for the contango issue everyone keeps bringing up, my sincere answer (and this isn't meant to be disrespectful) is simply this: don't bother me with facts; I'm a chartist.
Posted: 06:15 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 02, 2009 - 03:12 下午Charlie XLong-time readers probably know I'm a pretty big Star Trek fan. This market reminds me somewhat of the episode. Near the end, after young Charlie has taken over the ship, the crew on the bridge flip on every system they have. Charlie is overwhelmed by the complexity of everything going on around him at once, and he loses his grip.
I'm starting to picture the Feds in D.C. (principally Geithner and Obama) are the new Charlie X. Things are moving so fast (and in a bad direction) that they are flailing about. It doesn't seem like anyone is really in control anymore.
I am standing slack-jawed and agape at the market. The selling pressure is simply relentless. Look at this monthly graph of the Dow 30:
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What we have above is:
[*]Unrelenting buying pressure back in 1995/1996 (can you believe stock markets used to behave that way?), tinted in green;[*]A mirror image of unrelenting selling pressure over the past six months (tinted in magenta);[*]A break in the very long-term Fibonacci fan line (circled in red);[*]The next major support of the same fan line (circled in green), at around 4,800 or so on the Dow.What would make the most sense, and the easiest trade, would be (a) a retracement to somewhere in the high 8000s, then (b) a final plunge to under 5,000.
But I've been waiting for "the retracement" ever since Henry Paulson still had hair. It's getting ridiculous. Sometimes I wonder if it'll ever come, or if we'll simply keep eroding our way down to sub-5,000 on the Dow.
My portfolios are doing extremely well (notwithstanding my IRA, which, being based on pure "lottery" plays, is down 16% this year), but I have a gnawing sense of dread.
Posted: 03:12 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 02, 2009 - 11:19 上午$TRAN Tags Very Long-Term Fib Fan Support
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Posted: 11:19 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 02, 2009 - 10:43 上午Bullish on USOI am acquiring extremely large long positions on USO. Stop price: 24.25
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Posted: 10:43 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
About Tim Knight
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=498Tim Knight is founder of Prophet, a wholly-owned online software company that was acquired by Investools in January 2005; he presently serves as Senior Vice President of Technology for Investools. His recently-published book, Chart Your Way to Profits, offers a solid introduction to both technical analysis and the ProphetCharts product.
An active trader and chartist, Tim founded Prophet in 1992 to provide market data to self-directed investors using stand-alone technical analysis software. With the advent of the Web, he envisioned providing the power of these expensive software packages with browser-based convenience - enabling traders to focus on their analysis, instead of worrying about software upgrades and database issues. His online technical analysis suite at Prophet.Net delivers on this vision and more.
In his trading today, Tim relies on technical analysis as the primary basis for his investment decisions, and he has leveraged his passion for the markets to fuel the innovation for which Prophet.Net is known. In fact, Barron's and Forbes have consistently named Prophet.Net the #1 Web Site for Technical Analysis.
Before starting Prophet, Tim was Vice President of Technology Products at Montgomery Securities in San Francisco, where he led the development of an institutional online-trading platform. Additionally, he has held various positions in marketing management at Technical Tools and Apple Computer, and is the author of 20 computer books. Tim is a graduate of the Santa Clara University's Honors Program and holds a bachelor's degree in business management. He lives in Palo Alto, California with his family.
Slope Info [*]About Tim Knight[*]Chart Your Way to Profits[*]Community & Comments[*]Contact Me[*]Disclaimer[*]Favorite Trading Sites[*]Get an Avatar[*]How to Set Stops[*]I Need Advice![*]My Three Rules[*]Pet Peeves[*]Recommended Reading[*]Slocabulary[*]Tags[*]Trading Options[*]Video Tutorials[*]Watch Lists[*]Why I'm (Usually) Bearish
About Tim Knight
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=498Tim Knight is founder of Prophet, a wholly-owned online software company that was acquired by Investools in January 2005; he presently serves as Senior Vice President of Technology for Investools. His recently-published book, Chart Your Way to Profits, offers a solid introduction to both technical analysis and the ProphetCharts product.
An active trader and chartist, Tim founded Prophet in 1992 to provide market data to self-directed investors using stand-alone technical analysis software. With the advent of the Web, he envisioned providing the power of these expensive software packages with browser-based convenience - enabling traders to focus on their analysis, instead of worrying about software upgrades and database issues. His online technical analysis suite at Prophet.Net delivers on this vision and more.
In his trading today, Tim relies on technical analysis as the primary basis for his investment decisions, and he has leveraged his passion for the markets to fuel the innovation for which Prophet.Net is known. In fact, Barron's and Forbes have consistently named Prophet.Net the #1 Web Site for Technical Analysis.
Before starting Prophet, Tim was Vice President of Technology Products at Montgomery Securities in San Francisco, where he led the development of an institutional online-trading platform. Additionally, he has held various positions in marketing management at Technical Tools and Apple Computer, and is the author of 20 computer books. Tim is a graduate of the Santa Clara University's Honors Program and holds a bachelor's degree in business management. He lives in Palo Alto, California with his family.
About Tim Knight
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=498Tim Knight is founder of , a wholly-owned online software company that was acquired by Investools in January 2005; he presently serves as Senior Vice President of Technology for . His recently-published book, , offers a solid introduction to both technical analysis and the ProphetCharts product.
An active trader and chartist, Tim founded Prophet in 1992 to provide market data to self-directed investors using stand-alone technical analysis software. With the advent of the Web, he envisioned providing the power of these expensive software packages with browser-based convenience - enabling traders to focus on their analysis, instead of worrying about software upgrades and database issues. His online technical analysis suite at Prophet.Net delivers on this vision and more.
In his trading today, Tim relies on technical analysis as the primary basis for his investment decisions, and he has leveraged his passion for the markets to fuel the innovation for which Prophet.Net is known. In fact, Barron's and Fo have consistently named Prophet.Net the #1 Web Site for Technical Analysis.
Before starting Prophet, Tim was Vice President of Technology Products at Montgomery Securities in San Francisco, where he led the development of an institutional online-trading platform. Additionally, he has held various positions in marketing management at Technical Tools and Apple Computer, and is the author of 20 computer books. Tim is a graduate of the Santa Clara University's Honors Program and holds a bachelor's degree in business management. He lives in Palo Alto, California with his family.
Slope Info [*]About Tim Knight[*]Chart Your Way to Profits[*]Community & Comments[*]Contact Me[*]Disclaimer[*]Favorite Trading Sites[*]Get an Avatar[*]How to Set Stops[*]I Need Advice![*]My Three Rules[*]Pet Peeves[*]Recommended Reading[*]Slocabulary[*]Tags[*]Trading Options[*]Video Tutorials[*]Watch Lists[*]Why I'm (Usually) Bearish
About Tim Knight
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=498Tim Knight is founder of Prophet, a wholly-owned online software company that was acquired by Investools in January 2005; he presently serves as Senior Vice President of Technology for Investools His recently-published book, Chart Your Way to Profits offers a solid introduction to both technical analysis and the ProphetCharts product.
An active trader and chartist, Tim founded Prophet in 1992 to provide market data to self-directed investors using stand-alone technical analysis software. With the advent of the Web, he envisioned providing the power of these expensive software packages with browser-based convenience - enabling traders to focus on their analysis, instead of worrying about software upgrades and database issues. His online technical analysis suite at Prophet.Net delivers on this vision and more.
In his trading today, Tim relies on technical analysis as the primary basis for his investment decisions, and he has leveraged his passion for the markets to fuel the innovation for which Prophet.Net is known. In fact, Barron's and Forbeshave consistently named Prophet.Net the #1 Web Site for Technical Analysis.
Before starting Prophet, Tim was Vice President of Technology Products at Montgomery Securities in San Francisco, where he led the development of an institutional online-trading platform. Additionally, he has held various positions in marketing management at Technical Tools and Apple Computer, and is the author of 20 computer books. Tim is a graduate of the Santa Clara University's Honors Program and holds a bachelor's degree in business management. He lives in Palo Alto, California with his family.
[*]AAPL (24)[*]AZO (19)[*]BAC (26)[*]DIA (31)[*]FSLR (25)[*]GOOG (18)[*]IWM (53)[*]OIH (108)[*]SPY (23)[*]USO (19)
[*]AA (7)[*]AAPL (24)[*]ABFS (1)[*]ABK (9)[*]ABT (3)[*]ABX (11)[*]ACE (4)[*]ACGL (2)[*]ACI (6)[*]ACL (5)[*]ACS (3)[*]ADBE (3)[*]ADM (4)[*]ADP (2)[*]ADSK (2)[*]AEM (12)[*]AEP (1)[*]AES (2)[*]AET (1)[*]AFFX (1)[*]AFL (4)[*]AG (2)[*]AGN (5)[*]AGU (14)[*]AIG (8)[*]AIT (1)[*]AIV (1)[*]AKAM (5)[*]AKS (2)[*]ALB (4)[*]ALK (2)[*]ALL (1)[*]ALU (2)[*]AMB (1)[*]AMGN (3)[*]AMLN (3)[*]AMR (5)[*]AMSC (1)[*]AMT (7)[*]AMX (3)[*]AMZN (5)[*]ANF (7)[*]ANN (1)[*]ANR (13)[*]AOC (1)[*]APA (9)[*]APC (2)[*]APOL (11)[*]APWR (3)[*]ARA (1)[*]ARE (4)[*]ARLP (1)[*]ASIA (1)[*]ASTE (1)[*]ATAC (4)[*]ATI (9)[*]AU (2)[*]AUXL (1)[*]AUY (2)[*]AVIS (1)[*]AVP (1)[*]AXP (2)[*]AXYS (1)[*]AYI (6)[*]AZO (19)[*]AZP (1)[*]AZZ (1)[*]BA (4)[*]BAC (26)[*]BAP (1)[*]BAX (4)[*]BBBY (4)[*]BBD (1)[*]BBH (1)[*]BBT (1)[*]BBY (1)[*]BDN (2)[*]BDX (2)[*]BEE (2)[*]BEN (1)[*]BG (6)[*]BGC (1)[*]BHI (13)[*]BIDU (17)[*]BIG (3)[*]BK (1)[*]BKD (1)[*]BLK (13)[*]BMC (2)[*]BMS (1)[*]BORL (1)[*]BP (2)[*]BPFH (1)[*]BRCM (2)[*]BRP (1)[*]BSC (2)[*]BTU (2)[*]BUCY (4)[*]BWA (1)[*]BX (3)[*]BZH (2)[*]BZP (4)[*]C (1)[*]CAH (1)[*]CAL (3)[*]CALM (2)[*]CAM (1)[*]CAT (6)[*]CAVM (2)[*]CB (1)[*]CBRL (5)[*]CBS (2)[*]CCI (2)[*]CCJ (6)[*]CCO (3)[*]CEDC (5)[*]CEG (11)[*]CELG (3)[*]CENX (2)[*]CEPH (12)[*]CERN (12)[*]CETV (2)[*]CF (13)[*]CFC (4)[*]CGMFX (1)[*]CHK (2)[*]CHSI (1)[*]CHTT (8)[*]CI (1)[*]CIEN (1)[*]CL (4)[*]CLF (3)[*]CLX (2)[*]CME (9)[*]CMG (5)[*]CMI (2)[*]CMP (3)[*]CNB (1)[*]CNH (8)[*]CNI (4)[*]CNP (2)[*]CNQ (9)[*]CNX (4)[*]COF (7)[*]COG (1)[*]COH (12)[*]COP (3)[*]COST (4)[*]CPT (1)[*]CPY (5)[*]CRDN (2)[*]CRK (6)[*]CRM (1)[*]CROX (3)[*]CSX (3)[*]CTAS (1)[*]CTX (4)[*]CVA (2)[*]CVGI (2)[*]CVX (3)[*]CWEI (2)[*]CZZ (1)[*]DBA (13)[*]DBC (4)[*]DCM (1)[*]DDM (1)[*]DDR (1)[*]DDS (1)[*]DE (3)[*]DECK (8)[*]DF (5)[*]DIA (31)[*]DIG (14)[*]DIS (4)[*]DO (1)[*]DOV (1)[*]DOW (1)[*]DRE (1)[*]DRI (4)[*]DRQ (2)[*]DRYS (6)[*]DSL (3)[*]DST (1)[*]DTG (1)[*]DTV (2)[*]DUG (17)[*]DV (4)[*]DVN (6)[*]DXO (2)[*]EAC (4)[*]EBIX (1)[*]ECA (3)[*]EEM (7)[*]EFA (2)[*]EK (1)[*]ENR (1)[*]ENTG (1)[*]EOG (8)[*]EP (1)[*]EQT (1)[*]ERTS (1)[*]ESS (3)[*]ETR (1)[*]EWG (4)[*]EWT (3)[*]EXC (2)[*]EZU (2)[*]F (1)[*]FAS (1)[*]FAST (2)[*]FAZ (3)[*]FCN (3)[*]FCX (5)[*]FDX (3)[*]FE (1)[*]FED (5)[*]FFH (1)[*]FFIV (1)[*]FINL (4)[*]FISV (1)[*]FLIR (1)[*]FLR (9)[*]FMC (3)[*]FMCN (2)[*]FNM (11)[*]FORM (1)[*]FOSL (1)[*]FPL (5)[*]FRE (7)[*]FRT (2)[*]FSLR (25)[*]FTI (4)[*]FWLT (12)[*]FXI (8)[*]FXP (6)[*]GAP (1)[*]GD (2)[*]GDP (2)[*]GDX (6)[*]GE (6)[*]GEF (4)[*]GENZ (8)[*]GEO (1)[*]GERN (1)[*]GES (1)[*]GG (5)[*]GGP (1)[*]GILD (5)[*]GIS (1)[*]GLD (8)[*]GLG (1)[*]GLW (1)[*]GM (4)[*]GMCR (2)[*]GNK (13)[*]GNKI (1)[*]GOLD (2)[*]GOOG (18)[*]GPC (4)[*]GPRO (3)[*]GR (2)[*]GS (5)[*]GSG (3)[*]GSX (1)[*]GWW (1)[*]HAL (4)[*]HBC (1)[*]HES (5)[*]HIG (2)[*]HK (1)[*]HNT (1)[*]HOC (2)[*]HON (9)[*]HP (1)[*]HPQ (3)[*]HRS (1)[*]HSY (1)[*]HTCH (1)[*]HXL (1)[*]HYG (4)[*]IBM (9)[*]ICE (17)[*]ICLR (2)[*]IEF (1)[*]IFC (3)[*]ILF (1)[*]ILMN (5)[*]IMB (1)[*]INFA (1)[*]INFY (1)[*]ING (2)[*]INTC (1)[*]IP (5)[*]ISRG (9)[*]IWM (53)[*]IYR (2)[*]JAVA (1)[*]JBL (1)[*]JCP (1)[*]JEC (7)[*]JNPR (3)[*]JPM (17)[*]JRCC (1)[*]JRT (1)[*]JSDA (1)[*]JWN (2)[*]KGC (1)[*]KKD (2)[*]KLAC (5)[*]KMB (1)[*]KO (4)[*]KOP (2)[*]LBTYA (1)[*]LCC (1)[*]LDSH (1)[*]LEH (15)[*]LEN (4)[*]LFG (1)[*]LH (2)[*]LLL (1)[*]LMIA (2)[*]LMT (2)[*]LNET (2)[*]LNG (1)[*]LNN (7)[*]LQD (3)[*]LRY (1)[*]LVLT (2)[*]LVS (6)[*]MA (12)[*]MAC (1)[*]MBI (9)[*]MCD (1)[*]MCK (5)[*]MDR (4)[*]MDY (2)[*]MEE (1)[*]MER (6)[*]MGM (2)[*]MICC (4)[*]MIL (3)[*]MMM (2)[*]MO (1)[*]MOS (8)[*]MRK (2)[*]MS (8)[*]MSFT (1)[*]MTG (1)[*]MTH (1)[*]MTL (4)[*]MTLT (1)[*]MTN (2)[*]MVV (1)[*]N (2)[*]NBL (3)[*]NBVL (1)[*]NCC (1)[*]NE (2)[*]NEM (6)[*]NFLX (1)[*]NFX (1)[*]NHP (1)[*]NIHD (1)[*]NKE (1)[*]NLY (2)[*]NSC (1)[*]NTAP (1)[*]NTRI (1)[*]NTRS (2)[*]NXY (1)[*]NYX (1)[*]O (1)[*]OI (6)[*]OIH (108)[*]OMX (1)[*]ORH (2)[*]OSTK (4)[*]OXY (2)[*]OZM (3)[*]P-NRA (1)[*]PAAS (2)[*]PBR (6)[*]PCLN (4)[*]PCU (3)[*]PCX (1)[*]PFB (1)[*]PFG (1)[*]PG (2)[*]PGJ (1)[*]PHM (1)[*]PL 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Bloggy HighMy brain works in mysterious ways, some of which I'm still figuring out. One thing I've long known, however, is that my mind gravitates towards analogies and metaphors (which, given what you hear and read in this country, are often confused with one another).
I also find the personalities, interactions, and rivalries amongst financial blogs to be mildly fascinating. It occurred to me that the financial blogosphere can be thought of as a high school. My take on the categorization would be as follows:
Honors English (Slope of Hope) - Bookish. Cliquish. Smarter than the rest of the school, but hardly loved for it. Can correct spelling and grammatical errors at 100 yards, but prone to being shaken down for lunch money.
Chemistry (Evil Speculator) - This class is a bit dangerous. Its inhabitants are fiendishly clever, and if you cross them, you might find your 1983 Honda Accord in the student parking lot to be unusable.
Student Council (xTrends) - One highly-intelligent and charismatic leader surrounded by sycophants and hangers-on.
Trigonometry/Statistics (Retracement Levels) - The nerds of the school, they can calculate the probabilities of any given student getting a wedgie in P.E.
Philosophy (Gary Savage Smart Money) - Wordy, thoughtful, and occasionally pedantic, but you know you should listen, don't you?
Religious Studies (Elliott Wave International) - In spite of the separation of church and state, this is home room for the true believers. Reverend Prechter is a visiting scholar this year.
"Health" Education (Trading Goddess) - In spite of its ostensible purpose, this class is mainly attended by those hoping for some saucy images.
Drama (Live with Oscar) - Project! This time with feeling!
Auto Shop (iBankCoin) - Foul-mouthed. Loud. Obnoxious. Try to stay away from this part of the school. (You didn't really think I'd even provide a hyperlink, did you?)
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3038
How to Set Stops
As you know from my Three Rules page, setting stops is really important to me. But people ask me all the time "where do I set my stop?"
The unsatisfying but truthful answer is: it depends on the chart. Simply stated, you should set a stop at the price point which, if reached, indicates that your conclusion about a chart's projected price movement was wrong. Putting it a different price, if, at a certain price, your chart pattern is invalidated, it's time to get out at once.
I tend to trade bearishly, so these will be short positions, but you can just mentally flip the chart upside down to get the same idea. But here are a few examples:
The chart below shows an instance - which is quite common - where you need to decide how conservative your stop is going to be. The red circled price indicates the more conservative stop, since at the first sign of trouble (specifically, the series of lower highs being broken) you get out of the position. A looser stop - and thus one which exposes you to larger losses - is circled in green. That shows the lifetime high on the stock, plus a double stop. A price above this level would obviously be very bad for a bear in this position (keep in mind, a bearish position is assumed for all these examples).
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=499
The next chart is similar in the respect that the red circle shows the tighter, more conservative stop, whereas the green shows the looser stop. In this case, I would be strongly inclined to set the stop price in red, since the basis for the trade is very plainly the series of lower lows.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=500
Sometimes the stop price is quite obvious, such as with a horizontal line. If resistance is broken (for bearish positions) or support is broken (for bullish positions), it's time to get out. In the example below, simply by mousing over the horizontal line, ProphetCharts shows the precise dollar amount which, if exceeded, indicates it's time to exit the short position.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=501
If you take a bearish position on a stock which is otherwise quite a bullish pattern (like in the chart below, which frankly has no bearish configuration to it), setting the stop at the high price is the only way to go. It's quite likely that a new high price will be made, and if it is, you don't want to sit around to see just how high this price gets.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=502
Trades based on Fibonacci patterns are, similar to horizontal lines, easy for stop-setting. In this case, you want to set the stop at the price just above the next Fibonacci level above (or, for bullish positions, the next one below). So in this example, the next line up is at $157.60, so any price above this level indicates an exit signal.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=503
One final example is with a broken trendline. Here, the red circle shows a price level that would be discouraging for a bearish position, since it would indicate enough strength on the stock's part to muscle its way to the other side of that trendline. Simply stated, if the basis for the trade (in this instance, a broken trendline) is negated, then the likelihood of a profitable trade is diminished too.
shttp://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=504
So the seeming cop-out of "it depends on the chart" is, as you can see, quite true. But I hope this gives you the general idea.
About Tim Knight
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=498
My Three Rules
If you trade for a while, you will see a lot of rules lists. These are guidelines put together by individuals so they can attempt to, bluntly stated, avoid screwing up like they have in the past.
There is a lot of overlap among rule lists, and most of these lists aren't worth much, particularly in cases where they comprise dozens of different rules. On reading these, one can conclude the writer of the list has made a glittering variety of errors that he believes he can circumvent if only he has a lengthy-enough document to follow.
I've got my own list, but it is short and sweet. Like all rules writers, I ignore some of them from time to time, and virtually every time I do, I regret it.
It has cost me a huge amount of money to formulate these "trading laws", and I offer them up - as I do everything on this blog - for free, with the hope that it will help some of you. If one day I can follow these three rules absolutely consistently, I'll be a much richer trader for it. Behold:
[*]Every Position Has a Stop Price At All Times - The moment I have bought into a position, I immediately set a stop price. Always have a stop price in place for every single position (based, naturally, on good charting). No exceptions. For options, use a contingent stop. And if you dare tell me you use mental stops, I will find you, and I will hurt you.[*]The Only Exit Price is a Stop Price - There isn't a person on this planet that picks a good exit. Don't think you'll be the first. Yes, you will give up some profits by getting stopped out of positions. But those funds will be dwarfed by the extra profits you earn letting your winners run. Don't try to decide your trade has fulfilled its potential. It probably hasn't. Simply keep your stops up-to-date, and only allow yourself to exit a position when you have been stopped out. I will amend this with one nuance, however - - if your position is so profitable that it is "oversized", you can close a portion of the position to return it to roughly its original size. There's nothing wrong with some "harvesting" of a bloated position, so long as you don't close it altogether.[*]Only Trade After the Market Has Been Open 30 Minutes - There's something weird about the first thirty minutes of a trading session. Just trust me on this. Do nothing. No opens. No closes. No nothing. Your stops should be in place, and they can do their job, but for you - follow this new spin on old saying: Don't Just Do Something! Sit There!
Following these rules consistently isn't easy. But every year I get a little better at it, and every year I do better in my trading. I urge you to consider making these rules an important part of your trading life.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2799
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-3-28 15:58 编辑 ]
Recommended Reading
I am often asked what reading I would suggest to traders that want to learn more. Well, in addition to www.amazon.com%2FChart-Your-Way-Profits-Technical%2Fdp%2F0470043504&tag=prophet-20&linkCode=ur2&camp=1789&creative=9325]my own bookhttp://www.assoc-amazon.com/e/ir?t=prophet-20&l=ur2&o=1. Here are a few others I really like......
www.amazon.com%2Fgp%2Freader%2F0470138998%2F&tag=prophet-20&linkCode=ur2&camp=1789&creative=9325]Art of the Tradehttp://www.assoc-amazon.com/e/ir?t=prophet-20&l=ur2&o=1 - Unlike anything I've ever read; very philosophical, very subtle - - almost sublime - - it helps you get inside the mind of a winning trader.
www.amazon.com%2FTrading-Zone-Confidence-Discipline-Attitude%2Fdp%2F0735201447&tag=prophet-20&linkCode=ur2&camp=1789&creative=9325]Trading in the Zonehttp://www.assoc-amazon.com/e/ir?t=prophet-20&l=ur2&o=1 - a terrific guide to trading discipline......almost zen-like.
www.amazon.com%2FTechnical-Analysis-Stock-Trends-8th%2Fdp%2F0814406807&tag=prophet-20&linkCode=ur2&camp=1789&creative=9325]Technical Analysis of Stock Trends - the Bible of technical analysis. A must-read. Its advanced age its evident from its old-timey charts, but every technician must read this book.
www.amazon.com%2FEncyclopedia-Chart-Patterns-Wiley-Trading%2Fdp%2F0471668265&tag=prophet-20&linkCode=ur2&camp=1789&creative=9325]Encyclopedia of Chart Patternshttp://www.assoc-amazon.com/e/ir?t=prophet-20&l=ur2&o=1 - a rigorous, statistical analysis of chart patterns and their effectiveness. Brilliant.
Conquer the Crashhttp://www.assoc-amazon.com/e/ir?t=prophet-20&l=ur2&o=1 - Famed Elliott Waver Robert Prechter wrote this amazing book; as with his previous Crest of the Tidal Wave, it was published precisely five years too early, but I consider it essential reading.
www.amazon.com%2FEducation-Speculator-Victor-Niederhoffer%2Fdp%2F0471249483&tag=prophet-20&linkCode=ur2&camp=1789&creative=9325]Education of a Speculatorhttp://www.assoc-amazon.com/e/ir?t=prophet-20&l=ur2&o=1 - fascinating amalgam of personality and trading style (even though his fund went belly-up shortly after publication!)
www.amazon.com%2FMarket-Wizards-Interviews-Top-Traders%2Fdp%2F1592802974&tag=prophet-20&linkCode=ur2&camp=1789&creative=9325]Market Wizardshttp://www.assoc-amazon.com/e/ir?t=prophet-20&l=ur2&o=1 - a can't-put-down collection of interviews with traders. I used to work for one of 'em.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2373
Video Tutorials
These are free video tutorials that will provide some guidance on using the ProphetCharts product (which is the only tool I use in my analysis). If you do not have ProphetCharts but would like to try it, go to Prophet.net (the company I founded) and sign up for a free trial. Please note you need the latest version of Flash (also free) to view these videos. Your browser should prompt you to download this in case it isn't installed yet.
ProphetCharts Video Tutorials
The Basics
[*]Graph Types[*]Streaming Data[*]Duration and Frequency[*]Logarithmic vs. Arithmetic[*]Pointer and Data LineTechnical Studies
[*]Single Technical Studies[*]Using Multiple Studies[*]Patterns ScanDrawn Objects
[*]The Basics[*]Highlighting and Text Annotation[*]Trend Lines[*]Fibonacci Fans[*]Fibonacci RetracementsModules
[*]Introduction to Modules[*]Watch Lists[*]PortfoliosAppearance
[*]Zooming and Resizing[*]Cloning[*]Styles[*]Fonts, Themes, and Colors[*]VolumeAdvanced Topics
[*]Comparison Charts[*]Left Scale Axis[*]Finding Options[*]FOREX Charts[*]Option Controls
Video Tutorials
These are free video tutorials that will provide some guidance on using the ProphetCharts product (which is the only tool I use in my analysis). If you do not have ProphetCharts but would like to try it, go to(the company I founded) and sign up for a free trial. Please note you need the latest version of Flash (also free) to view these videos. Your browser should prompt you to download this in case it isn't installed yet.
ProphetCharts Video Tutorials
The Basics
[*]Graph Types[*]Streaming Data[*]Duration and Frequency[*]Logarithmic vs. Arithmetic[*]Pointer and Data LineTechnical Studies
[*]Single Technical Studies[*]Using Multiple Studies[*]Patterns ScanDrawn Objects
[*]The Basics[*]Highlighting and Text Annotation[*]Trend Lines[*]Fibonacci Fans[*]Fibonacci RetracementsModules
[*]Introduction to Modules[*]Watch Lists[*]PortfoliosAppearance
[*]Zooming and Resizing[*]Cloning[*]Styles[*]Fonts, Themes, and Colors[*]VolumeAdvanced Topics
[*]Comparison Charts[*]Left Scale Axis[*]Finding Options[*]FOREX Charts[*]Option Controls
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/themes/web-20-100/images/evil_header.png
[*]Home[*]evil[*]about[*]zero [*]Zero Tutorial[*]Where
March 27th, 2009 3:22 pm EOD Wrap Up, zero 93 Comments
This was a horrible whipsaw day and both Zeros performed brilliantly:
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/2009-03-27_zero.png
Nice clean short signals on the Primary Zero (with a temporary false negative to the upside which disappeared quickly). The Lite was simply brilliant, note how 90% of its time was spent below the zero mark - the two swings up could have gotten us out but we dove right back down and there was probably very little damage done. I’d give both a straight A today - especially in this kind of tape where everyone was confused (judging by postings and comments on other blogs and comments right here as well).
Alright, before I leave you guys for the weekend I have a special little treat to share with you rats:
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/strategy_profit_graph.png
This is a 12 months profit graph of that directed trading program I have been teasing you guys about lately - it goes from March 15, 2008 until the close today. Note especially how well it did during Gravestone Snooze December, Nightmare Flip Flop January, Bear Season February, and finally Monster Whipsaw March. It’s like the ing Energizer Bunny - it just keeps on going and going and going:
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/chap05_energizer_bunny.jpg
Obvious from the graph is that this strategy loves volatility and eats it for breakfast. However, it also does very well under low volatility (i.e. VIX below 30) but although we might see that in the coming months for a brief moment I’m confident that we’ll remain above the 30 line for a majority of the time for the next two years.
Max draw down on this strategy is a whopping 5.1%, which is ridiculously low. Had you traded one single ES contract the net profit on this strategy would have been $41k - not bad at all considering that it’s only in the market very briefly every other day or so and closes out every evening. So, there’s no worrying about holding overnight.
More details will follow but for now I’m busy implementing the email alert system, which requires a lot of hackery on my end to make work properly. If things get too hairy I might do this manually for the next month or so. Sometime this weekend I will put up a page with all the statistics, graphs, charts, etc. - anything you need know.
I’m also talking to the people over at ThinkOrSwim to get us evil rats specially discounted futures commissions, futures trading profile for NQ/ES, video tutorials, and a special session with Tom Sosnoff (I hope he says yes). As you know I’m a big fan of TOS and use them to trade the ES and NQ futures all the time. BTW, for the record, you don’t have to execute through TOS to participate - just want to make sure that’s clear.
The way this will work is that you guys will receive an email alert the second an order is supposed to be taken. A delay of a few minutes really doesn’t matter as this thing runs on an hourly chart - so, it’s not exactly a daytrading system. It just happens to perform a lot better if you close out your trades every day at 4:00pm EDT.
There is a stop as well and it’s about 46 ticks away - the system can be traded with a tighter stop but again over time the stop I selected produces maximum profits. Actually using no stop at all is even more profitable: $42k in the past 12 months and only 7% max draw down. BTW, that’s not 7% of your capital - the way NinjaTrader calculates it is on the value of the contract - kind of weird. But I think the visual graph shows it nicely.
I hope that wets your appetite a little bit - more details to follow. This is going to be FAT - like in fat profits
Channelz A La CarteMarch 27th, 2009 11:32 am Intraday Update, zero 150 Comments
UPDATE 12:31pm EDT: Thought you rats might be able to use this:
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/2009-03-27_channels1.png
Gives us some short term lines to play with - as you know I’m not touching this today. Zero also not too impressed about today’s tape.
UPDATE 12:48pm EDT: Keirsten shared a chart on the VIX this morning. Here’s my own mental masturbation:
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/2009-03-27_vix.png
Just an idea how it could play out - VIX is tough to count but there’s a good chance we push through the 30 line before this consolidation is over and done.
Public service announcement:
Please be aware that EvilSpeculator will be moved to an even bigger and meaner server this weekend. I planned to do it last weekend but we were waiting for some parts and I didn’t want to do it during the week obviously since the DNS roll over might have cut a few people off for a day or two.
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/2009-03-27_server.png
So, what I’ll do on Monday morning is to post the new IP address over on the Slope so that anyone sitting behind a slow DNS will be able to access the new site. Unfortunately the process of moving to a new server is always a bit painful as your ISP’s DNS might only update every few days or so. If you see very little activity (and no new post) on Monday morning then you might also call your own ISP and tell them to get their act together. Again, the new IP will be available over on the Slope - you can either copy/paste that into your browser’s URL field, or call your ISP to refresh the DNS cache.
UPDATE 2:39pm EDT: What do you know - Gold actually closed below that ing diagonal:
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/2009-03-27_gold.png
Okay, now I am hoping for a re-test and that’s when I’m in. Of course we all know what’ll happen - huge drop right from here - LOL http://evilspeculator.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
UPDATE 3:00pm EDT: One more hour to go - today is one of those days where I’m super happy to be sitting in cash. I’ve had more fun getting a root canal.
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/2009-03-27_zn.png
Not sure if you guys are watching the treasuries but the 10-year note got dumped like a cheap hooker today (again).
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/2009-03-27_yield.png
The yield is obviously on the rise - how’s ‘buying the long end of the treasuries’ working out for ya, Mr. Bernanke? If I remember it correctly the 10-year responded the most when he dropped the news and that’s where I think the Fed was planning to be most active. Maybe some of you bond/note traders could chime in here? Karl is foaming over this - as we well know - and he’s right. The Fed will fail over the long term - we could see yields push through 3% sometime this spring.