一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-地狱级炒手 - 〖期货技术交流〗 - MACD俱乐部_专业的技术分析交流

hefeiddd 发表于 2009-3-29 18:06

Something we all need to get used to is that this market is manipulated. If you cannot deal with that then you need to stop trading. NOW. Just cash out and walk away. Because it will happen again. What you might not want to hear, but what I want to drill into your little skulls tonight, is that the top dogs will do whatever it takes to maintain the status quo. It’s always been like that and that will never change.
So, we have to smarter and more nimble. We have to position ourselves in a matter that reduces risk. Which when it comes to trading options is either at extremely overbought or oversold moments in the tape. The right thing to do this afternoon would have been to expect the unexpected and take profits when we were nicely ahead. I take responsibility for that. My focus was on the big picture - but as an options trader I cannot be focused on the wave count only. I need to make sure that I don’t run out of time and that I score while I can. Just like Roethlisberger.
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-12_spx1.png
I only have time for a few charts tonight - please forgive me but I have a busy day tomorrow and need to prepare. My core position is that nothing much really has changed - imagine that. We did breach the triangle, which IMO confirms the green wave count and increases the odds that we are in minor 3 of intermediate (5). Unless we breach the February 9 highs that is what I consider the highest probability wave count.
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-12_motive.png
I usually don’t count the smaller degrees to make forecasts, but it seems as if we painted 5 waves to the downside and are now tracing out an a-b-c. We might be in c already, in which case today’s low was actually the b-wave of a flat, which would make the early morning low an unorthodox bottom, meaning it’s a bit higher than the bottom of the b-wave but we count it as the bottom. I’m not sure this is exactly the wave count but quite frankly, it’s mostly academic.
It’s the fibs that should guide us again. I have highlighted important resistance zones in the first chart. There is a distinct possibility that we touch 842 or then 850 tomorrow, which should give us an opportunity to evaluate the tape and scale into or out of positions. I’m still sitting on my March puts and depending on the strength of the tape will decide to cut and run or not.
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-12_stoch.png
You all know my favorite index stochastics grid by now. This one is extremely important tonight and I want you guys to replicate it and watch it tomorrow. Reason being is that all four indicators are painting a strong buy signal right now. Sometimes what you get is a swing back below and the selling continues with added vigor. However, once they push above 30 or 35 they rarely turn back - you can test that back with those settings on your own if you want.
So, if we push higher and there is no divergence in that the stochastics stay right here or turn lower then I will probably cut my remaining puts and seek some safety until I we are back in overbought territory and it’s safe for a reload. Remember, if we want to beat the market at its game going forward we have to be double paranoid and reduce risk as much as possible. It’s only going to get worse from here.
That’s all I have time for tonight, sorry rats - so many charts and so little time. But I’ll make up for it tomorrow during the day.
Cheers,
Mole
UPDATE 11:11pm EST: I like this article so much, I had to put it on tonight’s must read list.
Not About The MoneyFebruary 12th, 2009 4:03 pm Market Forecasts 292 Comments

UPDATE Closing Bell: I’ve seen some nasty whipsaws in my time but today took the cake by far. We all know where the buying came from - thanks Ben!
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-12_batman1.png
Always remember: It’s not about the money…. it’s about sending a message.
I’m still holding my March puts but only because it would have been a mistake to sell them into such a move. If tomorrow does not bring us an instant reversal I’m considering to exit the market and lick my wounds for a while. Under normal circumstances I would have sold the rip, but I’m just not sure if there are any bears left after today’s obvious intervention by the PPT.
Hope you guys did better than me - this was not a good day.

Bull Squeeze!February 12th, 2009 3:05 pm Intraday Update 121 Comments

UPDATE 3:00pm: Sorry about the outage AGAIN - I’m working with my hosting company to find a solution that’ll cut down on it. Actually, those ad banners are starting to produce - should have done this a lot earlier.
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-12_channel1.png
Market: Crazy tape, as you know but after the late morning shake-out we seem to be on track again. Glad I kept those March puts otherwise I’d be in pretty grim mood by now. Yen has slowed tracked to the upside and there is a bit more potential left. Let’s see if it will be enough to crack the 800 line - personally I doubt it, not after the sudden spikes I witnessed today. Institutional buyers will step in here at some point. Tomorrow is another day… keeping fingers crossed. But now I’m sitting only on March puts, so I got time on my side http://evilspeculator.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
UPDATE 3:15pm EST: I’m seeing those sudden spikes on the buying side - definitely institutional - very obvious. However, don’t panic - I just updated the image above. Unless we breach this channel the trend will continue to the downside. Today is a complete pain though…
FYI - despite all this monkey business breadth in the SPX is 6.4:1 negative right now.
UPDATE 3:31pm EST: We just took out 2 hours worth of down trend in 20 minutes. I would laugh but my ass hurts too much.

hefeiddd 发表于 2009-3-29 18:07

Bear Squeeze!February 12th, 2009 12:35 pm Intraday Update 136 Comments

UPDATE 12:30pm EST: Market has been ruthless in the past hour and eventually breached the line in the sand for my Feb puts.
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/honey_bear.jpg
Had to cut and run, which was really tough to do as I was sitting on massive profits just two hours earlier. If it wasn’t for the long weekend I might have sweat it out but I’m afraid that we’ll chop around for the next two days and then break way past where I would see profits. The risk/benefit ratio just wasn’t there and as a good trader you admit when you’re on the wrong side of a trade. Since I cut we’ve been pushing even higher, which in perverse way makes me feel better.
I know this really sucks and although I expected this gap to be filled I didn’t anticipate the might of the institutionals kicking in. And that’s what it was - as I saw the tape crawl up on the futures latter without any bids being present.
Great day just turned into a bear capitulation day - I’m pissed. Will just sit and wait for another opportunity to strike.
Lesson of the day: Don’t count your chicken before they’re hatched.
UPDATE 1:22pm EST: Clarification: I’m still holding my March puts although they got hammered too in the rally up. Frankly, at this very moment I have no opinion about this tape as it defies rhyme or reason. I don’t want to come across as wearing a tinfoil hat, but when the market makes a sudden U-turn without any exogenous forces as a trigger I can only chalk it off to Fed sponsored primary dealer monkey business. I’m pretty hard core but this is rough tape.
It’s moving in our direction now but I’m on edge, frankly - I hate to be in the market when it doesn’t make any sense and is able to turn on a dime like that. Also given up on the Yen - it regularly pops up for a quick breath of fresh air but then gets stomped on by the big Monty Python boot.

No Gap Fill?February 12th, 2009 11:25 am Intraday Update 80 Comments

UPDATE 11:21: The bulls are losing their touch I think or they’re just taking their merry time:
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-12_gap.png
If you put us through all that whipsaw - have at least he decency to give us a complete gap fill. There are rules, you know? http://evilspeculator.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Yeah, I’m still sitting on those puts - call me loco but that’s how I roll. I smelled blood and now I’m on like a coked out bull terrier. Rrrrrufffff!!
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/stbult.jpg
Seriously, I’m pretty sure we’ll see this gap filled before this day is over. Unless of course that damn Yen finally gets out of the gate. It’s retesting its VWAP right now - let’s hope it’ll get a chance to rip those bulls apart.
I’m grabbing some chow - market can bit my shiny metal ass in the meantime. Zen time.
UPDATE 11:46am EST: Wow, that was an expensive breakfast. Always be careful what you ask for I guess - you might just get it - LOL http://evilspeculator.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-12_kiss.png
So, the bulls got what they wanted now - let’s see if there are any bears left or if we have to endure more of this whipsaw.

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hefeiddd 发表于 2009-3-29 18:13

Ich WillFebruary 12th, 2009 10:02 am Intraday Update 119 Comments

UPDATE 10:00am EST: Ich will meinen Crash!!!
(I want my crash!) Of course you knew that was coming - LOL.
BTW, don’t you think this video is strangely appropriate? Take this you damn banksters!
Down we go - don’t do anything stupid now and let it run until you see a real bounce. Always remember, cut your losers short and let your winners run.
The trend is DOWN.
UPDATE 10:28am EST: The Yen has been walked down to its pivot and is trying to hold. If it breaches there and that’s not impossible after watching yesterday tape (even in this oversold condition) then we might see an attempt to close the morning gap on the SPX.
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-12_channel.png
Note that we’ve been going up for about half an hour, so there are buyers stepping in.
UPDATE 10:42am EST: Thought I share this little goody with you rats:
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-12_yen2.png
So here is the rat quiz of the day: What do you think will happen to equities once the Yen finally recovers from a deeply oversold condition?

Rubber - Meet RoadFebruary 12th, 2009 9:46 am Intraday Update 25 Comments

UPDATE 9:39: Now, that was a nice little treat for a delta negative rat like me. My Feb SPY puts are smiling big time http://evilspeculator.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-12_breach.png
We got ourselves a clean breach here and it’s just a matter of time now until the rest of the damn gives. Yes, we might slip back into the triangle today but the damage has been done and this is a significant event.
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-12_yen.png
But hre is the really good news: Yen is heavily oversold already and the ES futures were dropping along - nice. However, keep an eye on the NQ, as it’s making a run for the upside right now - it keeps being the leading index, so let’s see if the ES will follow. If so we might fill that gap before we drop further.

hefeiddd 发表于 2009-3-29 18:14

February 11th, 2009 7:02 pm Market Forecasts, zero 165 Comments

My portfolio was on fire today! Unfortunately not the way I like it -instead I received a major dose of theta burn as today’s whipsaw made my OTM Feb SPY puts look like a Eucalyptus tree in Kinglake, Australia. Those buggers lost 80% of yesterday’s gain, despite a rather feeble bounce in equities. However, Mr. VIX dropped by a few points (this thing is broken lately) and that combined with some creative bid/ask pricing by the MMs did the trick. I’m still holding, if you must know - but in retrospect I probably should have covered yesterday night. What is it they always say about hindsight?
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/fire_02.jpg
Seems like I’ll have to make a decision by Friday afternoon as I completely forgot that Monday is a trading holiday (President’s Day). So, the tape in the next two days will be key. If we push much higher from here I might have to cut and run and try my luck once more after the long weekend. Three days of inactivity will suck the life out of OTM Feb puts and unless the market continues on its trajectory downward tomorrow there is little gain in holding them. Did I mention I hate holidays? Seriously….
In a nutshell however - nothing really has changed. We expected a little bounce and today was actually quite mild - things could have gotten a lot uglier for the bears and maybe that’s what we’ll face tomorrow. The fib chart I posted yesterday is still valid, so stick with that. You might have noticed that the 23.6% fib was the line in the sand today - the bulls tried to breach it but failed. If we push up tomorrow - 842.5 is your friend. We also closed below 8000 on the DJI for the 2nd time in a row - last time that happened was in November. I actually thought about it and decided that it’s not that big of a deal unless we put some distance between us and that damn line. Seriously, it’s just a number but obviously it means a lot to the mouth breathers. I personally am more interested in large numbers in my profit column.
Anyway, I won’t post a full update today as it’s Wednesday and I frankly need a day off. I also feel a bit discouraged by that Zero vote but promise to return tomorrow once I’m done pouting - you damn leeches! http://evilspeculator.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Cheers!
Mole
Crash Or Get Off The PotFebruary 11th, 2009 2:48 pm Intraday Update 158 Comments

UPDATE 2:47pm EST: This is a crtical spot:
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-11_rubber.png
We either roll over here and push down hard or we channel up again and shake out the bears. Anything is possible right now as there is practically no participation - momentum is superthin.
UPDATE 3:24pm EST: Looks like the PPT doesn’t want the Dow to close below 8000 again - I’m taking bets at this point: Close >8k or < 8k?

Zero RIPFebruary 11th, 2009 1:58 pm Intraday Update 75 Comments

UPDATE 2:52pm EST: Well, I guess I got my answer - LOL. Okay, I’ll leave the feed up until the end of Friday and then pull it off the site. Again, the blog will continue as is - for free - no worries. I might actually put up a small ad banner in the right hand column as 2 Million unique page views might add up to well enough to pay for a server.
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-11_diagonal.png
In other news - equities just dropped off the plate, but as expected we’re stalling at that diagonal. Whipsaw galore lurking ahead unless we breach that line. Similar pattern in the XLF - as Erik keeps reminding us http://evilspeculator.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif

Wimpy RIPFebruary 11th, 2009 12:56 pm zero 122 Comments

Since we’re mostly whipsawing now might be a good time to take care of some ‘bzns’.
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/wimpy.jpg
Ladies and leeches, the free ride is nearing its end. You rats have been enjoying the Zero for free for over two months now and it’s time for me to get an idea of how many are willing to spring a monthly subscription fee.
I have posted a poll on the right hand side - so please vote.
Before you do, this is the deal: The subscription service would be exactly what has been offered thus far for free - nothing more and nothing less. I won’t add any bells or whistles to what you see right now - nor will I change any colors or provide any more input than I’ve offered during the past two months. Please bear this in mind before you cast your vote. Also, no hanging chads please http://evilspeculator.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
My goal is to see at least 100 yays (and please don’t just say so unless you mean it) otherwise I will probably just take this thing down for good in a week or two. Before you start giving me a hard time and call me greedy or malicious (which I am) bear in mind that I’m working 16 hours a day at this point. This blog has exploded to 2 Million unique page visits a month and I need to start thinking of buying my own server and co-hosting it. That is quite a level up from a shared server and thus takes resources as you can imagine. Thus, maybe a subscription to the Zero is your way to ‘chip in’ - of course don’t do it unless you actually are using it successfully - that is key.
Otherwise I’m proud of how far this community has come in just six months - I would have never dreamed of running such a fun and successful blog. Couldn’t do it without you guys - every day is a gift to me - even in the worst tape.
Cheers,
Mole
UPDATE: Some people might have misunderstood - I WILL NOT CLOSE DOWN THE BLOG!! Probably just keep it on the shared server. A quick tally of the vote seems to indicate that nobody wants to pay for the Zero anyway.

hefeiddd 发表于 2009-3-29 18:14

Channelz 2.0February 11th, 2009 11:09 am Intraday Update 94 Comments

UPDATE 11:08am EST: We’re barely 90 minutes into trading and I already feel like I worked all day.
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-11_channel.png
Let’s keep an eye on this channel. If you ignore all the noise - thus far the short term trend remains to the upside. And the Yen just doesn’t make it above VWAP - big seller lurking and I think that’s what we’ll see for the remainder of the day.
UPDATE 12:15pm EST: I just came back after breakfast and it seems we’re still inside that channel, although we are touching the lower boundary. Frankly, unless we breach this sucker right now I think it’s going to be whipsaw all the way into the close. My Feb puts are not liking this at all…
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-11_yen.png
Yen is being spanked again today - it’s oversold but that buyer is keeping a lid on any upside progress. What’s encouraging is that the equities don’t seem to exploit this fact all too much - however, we might see some fireworks in equities (to the upside) by the close. Unless the Yen gets out of the gate of course.

Gold BreachFebruary 11th, 2009 9:59 am Intraday Update 70 Comments

UPDATE 10:00am EST: Gold breached my line in the sand and I’m out.
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-11_gold.png
Actually, I’m glad as my GLD puts had turned into a major theta burner.
UPDATE 10:12am EST: Two scenarios right here:
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-11_abc.png
Blue: We complete an a-b-c to equality which would take us to 843.
Orange: This was it and we drop like a rock.
Watch the Yen - it’s trying to swing above its VWAP.
UPDATE 10:34am EST: We are NOT out of the woods just yet but this is a good start. I’ll feel better once we breach yesterday’s lows - that should open the flood gates. Remember however that we still need to breach 822 before we see a serious sell off. Yen is fighting to push above VWAP but there’s a strong seller there (the Japanese Fed interfering?) - I see a lot of loooong wicks on that thing - keeps pushing it down. Fortunately it doesn’t seem to take much to depress equities, and bear in mind that the Yen is oversold on a short term basis.

hefeiddd 发表于 2009-3-29 18:15

So Long, And Thanks For All The FibsFebruary 10th, 2009 9:19 pm Market Forecasts 116 Comments

What can I say that hasn’t already been said in literally hundreds of comments today? Don’t you love it when an evil plan finally comes to fruition? We megalomaniacs simply don’t get enough credit for our work. Let’s not get complacent however, this is only a first step in the right direction. We have a lot of work to do before we’re done milking this bear:
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-10_spx.png
As you already know we now find ourselves at a diagonal support shelf that needs to be breached before our ride into the abyss continues. I would be very surprised if we didn’t get a bounce tomorrow, but if the green scenario holds true we should not breach the February 9 peak at 874.84. I don’t expect this to happen but especially as a trader you never say never - in particular after the past 12 months of tape.
However, what you should be watching tomorrow are the Fibonacci zones I have taken the liberty to highlight on the chart above. If we push up in the SPX during NYSE hours I see a minimum of 835. As a matter of fact -as I’m typing the ES is trading at 828, although it did touch 832 an hour ago (where I shorted it for some quick profits - teeeeheeee).
Short of any ugly surprise tomorrow (e.g. mark-to-fantasy rule) that might throw equities into reverse gear I expect our drop to continue throughout the week, to be climaxed (ooooh oooooh baaaby) by a breach of the November 21st low of 741.02. A rough target for intermediate wave (5) would be the 650 - 700 zone. I plan to firm up on that as this wave unfolds. So, don’t cut your legs off rats - I know many of you have taken profits here but I have been very clear on where I think we’ll find ourselves by the time primary {1} of cycle wave c has concluded - and it’s quite a bit away from where we are right now. IMHO, today was just the overture.
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-10_cpc.png
Breadth in the SPX today was horrendous - declining issues were leading advancing 54:1. In the NDX I counted a ratio of negative 23:1. Accordingly the extreme reading in the CPC we have been pondering about have reversed quite a bit, but there is plenty of upside remaining. By the time we reach our target zone for this wave I expect the CPC to reach the area (highlighted above) we have come to appreciate several times during minor wave 3 of (3) - aaah, the good old days…
Also worth noting again is the spread between the 30-Year T-Bond yield and Moody’s BAA Corporate Yield which I mentioned last Sunday. Remember, at our last reading it had expanded to -4.57 and I’m happy to report that this trend has continued as it has reached -4.67 as of February 6th. Unfortunately that is the latest reading I can get online - but I should probably inquire with IQFeed if they have a live signal for the Moody feed. Following this spread has served us well in the past few months and although no indicator is fool proof (and I should know because I qualify), as long as these readings continue to expand or at least remain at these levels more medium term downside potential remains likely.
Gold remains to be a pain the ass and I don’t even want to post a chart - damn thing hasn’t breached any of my critical resistance lines but has turned into a major theta burner. Next time I skip those damn GLD puts and just sell/buy ZG futures.
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-10_yen.png
The Yen received my memo and immediately embarked on an upwards trajectory, pushing it back inside the 2.0 BB. Such a nice currency - and it did help immensely with today’s drop in equities. Let’s hope that this trend continues - calling all currency traders!!!
The Dollar has stagnated a bit but remains on course for further upside.
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-10_crude.png
Crude just doesn’t catch a break lately - it has tried to bounce higher but its 50-day MA appears to be the line in the sand. Worthwhile watching as we probably should initiate short positions next time we see a touch of that line. I do however think we should see a bounce here at some point.
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-10_crack.png
Weak crude means an expanding crack spread and I think I’m seeing an extended fifth wave here, something that’s common in commodities. So, if we finally do see crude breach its 50-day MA and perhaps push towards the upper boundary of it’s 2.0 BB I would have no compunction about shorting the heck out of refiners. Our day will come but let’s not step in front of a moving bus.
That’s all I got for you rats tonight - Mrs. Evil is waiting with the trough - chow time!
Cheers!

822February 10th, 2009 2:39 pm Intraday Update 277 Comments

UPDATE 2:38pm EST: Watch 822 on the SPX:
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-10_822.png
I expect the bulls to mount some defenses there - probably good for a little bounce. Thanks to millingz for reminding us - I think I pointed out this level in a prior post - but credit where it is due.
UPDATE 2:56pm EST: FYI - 822 on the ES also coincides with the outside border of a 2 standard deviations band around the VWAP. However, fair value (PREM) today is -2.42, so the ES will get there earlier. Anyway, we’re getting close.
UPDATE Closing Bell: Congrats rats - we banked some serious coin today. However - before you cut your legs off let’s remember that this is only the beginning. A lot more downside to come. There is the distinct possibility of a bounce right here but that should only give us opportunity to keep loading up. You guys were great today and it seems a lot of you stuck with the plan - good show - you should be proud - this was not an easy trade.
Anyway, I’ll be in touch later tonight with a quick review.

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hefeiddd 发表于 2009-3-29 18:35

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Financial Sense: Move Your Mon 507Precious Metals
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Two good articles. 807Soft Commodities
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hefeiddd 发表于 2009-3-29 18:35

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global currency play 1861Technical/Trading
Technical Analysis
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Where the Heck Are We? - March 1868Specific Sectors
Home Builders
Builders make 'em, you live in 'em. How are they moving and why.2009-03-25 21:42:17 by Mliu_01
Miami 'condo king' h 951Mortgage Lenders and Bankers
Buying a house, need a loan? Most of us need mortgages! How are their stocks performing?2009-03-28 12:24:05 by Okeven
Q. How far will mortgage rates 851Retail Sector
Retail is the heart of consumer spending; without it, nobody buys anything!2009-03-27 15:57:13 by Wearedoomed
Automakers yanking cars off lo 251Technology Stocks
Tech stocks. You know what happened in 2000. Is it happening again?2009-03-29 03:45:11 by Etz3l
Agilent to layoff 2700 241Fixed Income
Fixed income, bonds, "boring", whatever you want to call it, this is the place for it. Munis, corporates, agency, government. Its all debt!2009-03-28 23:57:07 by Uss_liberty
Illiquidity in corporate bond 147Retirement Strategies
Retirement is a complex time for your money. Discussion of retirement-specific strategies and ideas goes here!2009-03-19 22:50:23 by Johnny_crab
MERRILL LYNCH RETIREMENT PRESE 117Economic Underlyers - Moving the Markets
Monetary Theory / Interest Rates
Monetary theory - "Inflation or deflation?" "What's the deal with The Fed?" and similar topics. Note - if you post items related to this elsewhere, your account will be marked "read only"! Keep this topic where it belongs!2009-03-29 01:46:20 by Grody
Treasury bonds-the next bubble 606Consumer Issues
The consumer is 70% of the US Economy. How's Chuckie?2009-03-29 05:47:53 by Pyruvate
Wells Fargo Cuts Our HELOC 60% 599Real Estate / REITs
Real Estate. Its an asset class and its important! Lately it has been in bubble territory, and is now being popped. Put your R/E and REIT related topics here!2009-03-28 10:29:37 by Kel
Regional Reports on Bubble Imp 780Credit Markets
Business credit. Housing. LBOs. This is the market that moves the markets we all watch.2009-03-28 08:05:36 by Chassa
Decent Credit Ratings & CDS Pr 234Foreign Exchange Markets
Foreign Exchange - the most liquid market in the world, open 5 days a week 24 hours a day, moving in excess of $2 trillion daily. Yes, it matters, and more than you think!2009-03-28 19:55:06 by Pika-steph
Financial Sense: Move Your Mon 507Precious Metals
Hard commodities (e.g. Gold and Silver) discussions go here. Note that metals threads go nowhere else on the Tickerforum system.2009-03-28 21:01:20 by Dada
Two good articles. 807Soft Commodities
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hefeiddd 发表于 2009-3-29 18:36

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South Park on the economy 222General Discussions
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SPX cash 317General Stock Discussions
If it has no other specific place, stick it here! NOTE that this is NOT for non-market-related items. Look at the other forums for the correct place to stick your topic! DO NOT post "cry in your beer" or "boast" items here - those go in The Bar! Note - INDEX discussions go in "INDEX"!2009-03-29 06:14:41 by Onion
200 Children ID'd as Pote 27342FedUp USA Discussions
If you're a "Joe Six Pack" and wondering what the devil is going on in our financial system, this is your place. Threads here should be topical to everyday American life, and are explicitly NOT focused on investing or trading.2009-03-29 01:23:58 by Rickylc
FedUpUSA's Personal Messa 1088Current (Breaking) News Forums
Breaking News
Quick notes on breaking news related to the capital markets - if you stick a "forum subscribe" on just one thing here, this the one you want. NOTE: Queries or notes on stock, option, FX or similar PRICE ACTION does not go here! This is for NEWS RELEASES, not opinions.2009-03-29 05:50:43 by Free
Economy pushing people over an 7Breaking PRICE Action
For queries or reports of unusual price or trading activity on stocks, options, currencies and indices. This is NOT for news releases (see the above forum)2009-03-28 14:19:11 by R0h1tp
BREAKING PRICE Rules 1GeoPolitical Breaking News
Geopolitical breaking news events. ALL geopolitical news threads (e.g. Iran, Israel, Georgia, etc) go in here. Note that this is specifically for NEWS and ages off after 7 days.2009-03-29 03:19:50 by Pika-steph
U.N. 'Climate Change' 32Earnings Reports
If its an earnings report or discussion about it, stick it in here.2009-03-26 19:47:22 by Forn2008
BBY Best Buy beats by $0.21, r 2Rumor Central
We've all heard 'em. Rumors are all over the market every day of the week. READ THE PINNED TOPIC BEFORE USING THIS AREA!2009-03-29 01:01:28 by Daozenrod
Re: Thread on New World Curren 1059News Continuation
Not-So-Breaking News
Breaking news rolls here after 24 hours automatically; continue your discussions! New topic posting prohibited; replies only.2009-03-29 01:29:55 by Grody
California February Unemployme 17746Not-So-Breaking Price Action
Rollover from "Breaking Price" - new posting prohibited, but you may reply.2009-03-28 09:59:40 by Energyecon
PRU up today 6443Not-So-Breaking GeoPolitical News
Continuation area for GeoPolitics Breaking. Threads move here after 7 days automatically. You cannot start threads here, but you can follow up on them.2009-03-29 03:50:30 by Sharon
House Passes Mandatory Nationa 679Market Fundamentals
Corporate Bankruptcies
Boom! You know you want to know when it happens. Rumored or actual bankruptcy announcements go here.2009-03-28 19:19:51 by Daizepitt
Florida State Rep Files For Ba 587Earnings (Continuation)
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Is the ugly shoe craze about t 1088Investing Ideas
Post your investment ideas here! Whether a "flight to safety", a "speculative trade", or just your "best pick", let's hear it!2009-03-28 17:20:51 by 44deagle
global currency play 1861Technical/Trading
Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis is one of the more fascinating areas of the markets. If you have a chart or something similar to post for discussion, this is the place. Direct image uploads allowed here.2009-03-29 04:53:33 by Isitdoneyet
Where the Heck Are We? - March 1868Specific Sectors
Home Builders
Builders make 'em, you live in 'em. How are they moving and why.2009-03-25 21:42:17 by Mliu_01
Miami 'condo king' h 951Mortgage Lenders and Bankers
Buying a house, need a loan? Most of us need mortgages! How are their stocks performing?2009-03-28 12:24:05 by Okeven
Q. How far will mortgage rates 851Retail Sector
Retail is the heart of consumer spending; without it, nobody buys anything!2009-03-27 15:57:13 by Wearedoomed
Automakers yanking cars off lo 251Technology Stocks
Tech stocks. You know what happened in 2000. Is it happening again?2009-03-29 03:45:11 by Etz3l
Agilent to layoff 2700 241Fixed Income
Fixed income, bonds, "boring", whatever you want to call it, this is the place for it. Munis, corporates, agency, government. Its all debt!2009-03-28 23:57:07 by Uss_liberty
Illiquidity in corporate bond 147Retirement Strategies
Retirement is a complex time for your money. Discussion of retirement-specific strategies and ideas goes here!2009-03-19 22:50:23 by Johnny_crab
MERRILL LYNCH RETIREMENT PRESE 117Economic Underlyers - Moving the Markets
Monetary Theory / Interest Rates
Monetary theory - "Inflation or deflation?" "What's the deal with The Fed?" and similar topics. Note - if you post items related to this elsewhere, your account will be marked "read only"! Keep this topic where it belongs!2009-03-29 01:46:20 by Grody
Treasury bonds-the next bubble 606Consumer Issues
The consumer is 70% of the US Economy. How's Chuckie?2009-03-29 05:47:53 by Pyruvate
Wells Fargo Cuts Our HELOC 60% 599Real Estate / REITs
Real Estate. Its an asset class and its important! Lately it has been in bubble territory, and is now being popped. Put your R/E and REIT related topics here!2009-03-28 10:29:37 by Kel
Regional Reports on Bubble Imp 780Credit Markets
Business credit. Housing. LBOs. This is the market that moves the markets we all watch.2009-03-28 08:05:36 by Chassa
Decent Credit Ratings & CDS Pr 234Foreign Exchange Markets
Foreign Exchange - the most liquid market in the world, open 5 days a week 24 hours a day, moving in excess of $2 trillion daily. Yes, it matters, and more than you think!2009-03-28 19:55:06 by Pika-steph
Financial Sense: Move Your Mon 507Precious Metals
Hard commodities (e.g. Gold and Silver) discussions go here. Note that metals threads go nowhere else on the Tickerforum system.2009-03-28 21:01:20 by Dada
Two good articles. 807Soft Commodities
Soft commodity discussions (e.g. Wheat, corn, beans) and base metals (zinc, copper, etc) along with oil go in this area. No gold or silver messages!2009-03-28 09:22:09 by Webjazz
stripe rust in chinese wheat c 524Other Forums
Help Wanted / Job Wanted
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Support Technician, Las Vegas, 24Newbie Forum
New to trading? We all were (and some of us still are!) If you have questions that you think would fall into the "newbie" area, stick 'em here and let's hash 'em out.2009-03-29 00:37:16 by Jfedak
Tax Question for Day-Trading M 1398Polls On The Ticker
Want to get a feel for opinion here? Now you've got a place! No stuffing the ballot box please!2009-03-25 19:28:38 by Obseedian
What was your trading account& 126Small Business - Owning and Operating
Thinking of starting one? Running one now? Small businesses are an investment, and often one of the best you can make - their performance is all about you!2009-03-28 23:07:52 by Dtlgc
New Cobra Insurance Rules 57Letters To Lawmakers
If you've written a letter to a government official relating to investment topics and wish to post it, here's the place. Note that others may (and are encouraged to!) build on your work in their own!2009-03-13 03:04:06 by Goldbrick
Email from Sen. Evan Bayh 161Administrative
Announcements
Announcements from the administrators2009-03-28 22:10:01 by Rjazz117
CONTEST: 'Best User-Defined Th 118Suggestion Box
Got a suggestion? Maybe you think we need a new forum or other area, or want to leave a comment on the software, organization, or functionality? This is your place!2009-03-27 22:26:25 by John117
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hefeiddd 发表于 2009-3-29 18:38

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hefeiddd 发表于 2009-3-29 18:39

Channel MasterFebruary 10th, 2009 1:13 pm Market Forecasts 121 Comments

UPDATE 10:10am EST: That should be my new title - Master of Channel Ceremonies:
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-10_channel2.png
I hope the NDX got my memo and stays the heck inside http://evilspeculator.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
UPDATE 2:19pm EST: Quote of the week:
You can take a pig, clean him up, put a bonnet on his head, spray him with perfume and call him a daisy but he is still in fact a pig. — Trader Dan

Feuer Frei!February 10th, 2009 11:08 am Intraday Update 161 Comments

UPDATE 11:07am EST: Yeah, baby, yeah!!!
Crank it up rats.
UPDATE 11:45am EST: Well, that wasn’t too bad for starters. I do like that long candle down but it’s merely a humble beginning. Let’s see what happens throughout the rest of the day. I’m going to step out for 30 to grab breakfast. Keep a lid on things while I’m gone, rats.
UPDATE 12:25pm EST: I’m back - ES now futzing around at its 837 S3 pivot. We’re short term oversold, so I’m bracing for a possible bounce up. However, we should not even get close to today’s highs, otherwise that wave count is getting really ugly. Yen is overbought at this point (short term), so this might give equities an opportunity for a boost.
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-10_channel.png
I’ve got a new channel for you rats - watch this for a breach of the right boundary.
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-10_grid.png
My trusted stochastics are finally pointing in the right direction. For you noobs - a swing below the 75/80 line is traditionally a sell signal. FYI - this was actually George Lane’s favorite way to read it - some other perspectives on the subject matter exist as you can imagine, but you cannot argue with the guy who invented it in the first place. Anyway, this should answer your question of whether or not I’m taking profits here - hell no - this is usually where I start going short.

Channel Of DoomFebruary 10th, 2009 9:53 am Intraday Update 109 Comments

UPDATE 9:49am EST: Okay, who didn’t expect we would close that opening gap? MMs are becoming predictable at this point - LOL http://evilspeculator.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-10_ndx.png
We are back in that channel of doom - bulls are in firm control of the tape. Seriously, I have not seen any ‘forced’ selling in days - any selling that did take place was to lure in more bears.
In other (even more annoying) news - Gold is wearing me out, I might just cut those puts today - too much of a theta burner and I don’t want my ego to be doing the trading.
UPDATE 10:26am EST: At least now we’re moving in the right direction. While we wait for the bulls’ response get a load of this:
The anger you hear in this woman’s voice is a good representation of the massive groundswell that’s developing. You can pretty much skip the rest of that clip - the usual spin.
BTW, 854 is where we hit support last night in the ES futures - this is going to be an important test.
UPDATE 10:40am EST: We are now sitting on a support zone:
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-10_ndx2.png
If we swing below this zone we should be good to go. Frankly, I have little confidence - pretty sure the bulls will step in here.

Breaking PointFebruary 9th, 2009 9:01 pm Market Forecasts 118 Comments

I’m going to make this one super short - telegram style:
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-09_spx.png
All three possibilities are still in play - if you haven’t seen my Sunday post go back for some excrutiating details. Bottom line: Either we hold 877 or we bust higher to test 895 and probably 910.
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-09_updays.png
We’ve had 4 up days out of the past 5 trading days - we also had 9 up days vs. 4 down days since the January 20 lows. The bulls are trying to best to breach the 900 mark but thus far have failed.
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-09_divergence.png
My trusted 2hr stochastics show divergences in the two leading indexes. There is also an intra-index divergence in that none of the other three have followed the NDX’s breach of the January 28 highs (thus far).
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-09_cpc.png
The CPC has reached ridiculous levels. Quite frankly - if you are a bear and don’t start rolling into short positions here then I don’t know what to tell you as I can’t think of a better setup.
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-09_nyhl2.png
This is a little jewel I just came across - this is the NYSE New High/New Lows index and as you can see we have not seen extremes like this since the top of Minor wave 2 of Intermediate (3).
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-09_nyhl.png
Here’s a clean SPX chart marked with that period in our wave count.
Considering all the above is why I’m heavily delta negative at this point and will use any ensuing rallies in equities to add to my existing pile of puts.
Cheers!

hefeiddd 发表于 2009-3-29 18:40

Back Into The BubbleFebruary 9th, 2009 3:14 pm Intraday Update 187 Comments

UPDATE 3:12pm EST: Now we’re getting somewhere but I would still love to see a real selloff towards the close.
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-09_bb.png
Yen is back in the 2.0 BB bubble - who can blame it - it’s rainy and cold outside and I just put a log on the fire that’s burning the bulls’ asses.
Uh-oooohhh - the bulls are fighting back now - we just pushed above VWAP on the NQ. This should be a very interesting close. If the bears don’t seize the moment now we might just have the bulls reload and push the tape beyond belief.
UPDATE 3:23pm EST: Who let the air out of the bear again?
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-09_channel2.png
What’s it gonna be? The next 30 minutes should be critical. If we slip back into the channel I see 920 on the horizon. Let’s hope it’s just a last ‘bisous’ good-bye.
UPDATE 3:31pm EST: Game over for the bears - not sure what to tell you guys. We just took out 4 down candles in the past 15 minutes. Bulls continue to control the tape.
UPDATE 3:40pm EST: Time for my secret weapon:
Crank it up, rats!
UPDATE 3:52pm EST: Rammstein not working - re-drawing the channel:
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-09_channel3.png
Maybe I should have played a different song…
That should do it http://evilspeculator.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif

Smoking POTFebruary 9th, 2009 2:01 pm Market Forecasts 88 Comments

UPDATE 2:00pm EST: POT is making up for some SPY ugliness today:
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-09_pot.png
I don’t think I could have gotten a better entry here - so far so good.
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-09_ndx3.png
Before you girls get all moist about the sudden drop - that channel on the NDX is holding thus far and as I’m typing this we’re pushing up hard again. Trust me on this leeches - the MMs are going to tease this out all the way and burn through as many stops as possible.
UPDATE 2:28pm EST: Sorry folks - the server crapped out again - grrrrr. Since then we’ve breached that channel and have plunged below the VWAP on all index futures. A good start but nothing more - we need to see some hardcore drop here, otherwise I’m afraid it’ll just be a reload for the bulls. I’m talking double penetration, leeches - this better be good. Actually, as I’m typing this we’re bouncing off the YM pivot and off lower 2.0 standard deviation lines on the VWAP. I think now it’s do or die for the bears.

Channel FlippingFebruary 9th, 2009 12:54 pm Market Forecasts 31 Comments

UPDATE 1:00pm EST: The NDX is leading the advance, so let’s keep an eye on this developing channel in today’s tape.
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-09_channel.png
If you ignore all the gyrations the trend continues to be up.

Bears MIAFebruary 9th, 2009 11:17 am Intraday Update 66 Comments

UPDATE 11:13am EST: I didn’t see this until now - the NDX has already breached the Jan 28 highs by a few ticks. This has happened before and might be just an overthrow but it officially changes the wave count to something else. What - well, I’m singing the blues at this point.
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-09_ndx.png
Frankly folks - you know I’m as bearish as they come but if you’re delta negative you need to face reality, which is that the mouth breathers will most likely push this tape way way past the painthreshold of the majority of the bears. 920 may be in the cards before TARP 2.0 will be announced.
UPDATE 11:20am EST: Another scary look at the Yen/ES correlation chart:
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-09_yen2.png
A rip in the Yen didn’t phase equities at all. Frankly, it’s looking very bleak for the short term bearish case.

hefeiddd 发表于 2009-3-29 18:41

Bears AWOL (thus far)February 9th, 2009 10:04 am Market Forecasts 58 Comments

UPDATE 10:00am EST: As usual the market throws us a curve ball - after being down nicely overnight it pushed up by the open and we’re back in Friday’s VWAP zone.
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/sleepy_bear.jpg
Despite two days of massive rallying and an overbought market the bears remain in hibernation.
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-09_yen.png
What gives me pause is the Yen/ES futures correlation chart. Either this is a bull trap or the bears are in for a massive rectal exam. If we can’t drop on a rallying Yen then it’ll be doubtful we drop today once the Yen reaches short term overbought levels (remember that I only watch this correlation during NYSE hours).
Well, it’s still early in the day - as I’m typing this we just dropped below VWAP on all index futures - maybe it’ll get interesting right now.
UPDATE 10:22am EST: We remain in a range bound market and MM are busy running stops.
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-09_azo.png
Someone mentioned AZO the other day and how ‘a many have tried to slay the beast’. So true - but maybe we’re getting closer - I’m sensing a disturbance in the force.
UPDATE 10:33am EST: While the market is grinding us like a cheap stripper at Spearmint Rhino you might as well read up on how Wall Street is going to rip you and your children off at the tune of billions courtesy some very appalling actions by our Fed.
Mmmh - I wonder which link they’ll click first…
UPDATE 10:49am EST: Well, looks like it’s time for the rectal exam. What… you ran out of lubricant? Great…. Seriously now - we’re a few points away from 877.86 - we breach that one and we’re talking blue scenario. Personally I have no idea where the bears are - there seems to be no limit as to how high the tape can be pushed at this point. I keep adding puts until we breach the Jan 28 highs - after that I’ll probably hedge and watch the ensuing rip.

Not Much Longer NowFebruary 8th, 2009 7:02 pm Market Forecasts 109 Comments

Well, maybe. The next two days will be crucial in arriving at a possible resolution of the current whipsaw we have endured for over two months now:
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-08_spx.png
I mean, look at this ugly beast - its simple atrocious. And I haven’t even set this chart into candlestick mode, which would show some very nasty wicks. Of course swingtraders have been loving this but the rest of us rats are worn out to the max and the primary question on our mind is:
Will we get ouf this damn 800 range anytime soon?
I feel your pain and relief might be on the way. On Wednesday the green scenario looked like the winner and many of us were ready to mount the bear and ride it into the abyss (which is the stainless steel version of riding a horse into the sunset - hehe). Fortunately my spidey-paranoia sense kicked in and we were fortunate enough to avoid a bear trap before we all got caught on the receiving end of the stick without lubricant. The sudden spike up has weakened the short term bearish case but has not invalidated it. At this very point in the tape we face three 1/2 possible scenarios (again - I’m sorry):
[*]Green - Minute wave {iii} of Minor 3 of Intermediate (5): This scenario is about to become extinct as a push higher would alter the wave count to the blue scenario. The line in the sand is 877.95 - we breach this January 28 high we’re singing the blues.[*]Blue A - Minute wave {c} of Minor 2 of Intermediate (5): This one assumes that we have not completed wave 2 of (5) yet and that we are tracing out a flat. This might get us all the way to 925.67, which would constitute 165% of the length of its {a} wave. My money however would be on the ‘magic’ 920 line.[*]Blue B - Minor wave C of Intermediate (4): That was the original scenario I was tracing out back in October. It’s kind of interesting in that we could reverse around the same level as in the Blue A scenario, or depending on the level of irrational exuberance we might just bust higher into 1020.[*]Orange - Minute wave {b} of Minor D of Intermediate (4): Yes, it’s that damn triangle again - and that would would also have us drop fairly soon (but maybe a bit later than the green one) and then reverse yet one more time to complete its wave E. I’m not sure how realistic this one is, but it’s a possibility. As you can see on the chart, the area around 770 - 790 will be the separation point. If we bounce from there a triangle it is.You might have noticed that all three of my scenarios expect that the November 21 lows will be breached.
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-08_cycle_1_of_c1.png
As it stands primary wave {1} of cycle c still appears to be incomplete and according to EWT rules in conjunction with our current higher degree wave count we need to complete a fifth wave to the downside before we are ready to embark on a multi-month corrective wave (i.e. {2} of c).
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-08_cpc.png
The current CBOE Put/Call Ratio readings are puzzling to me. Traditionally a touch below the 0.8 level almost guarantees a plunge to the downside, but I have marked three cases in orange where it didn’t happen - and the number of occurrences of such ‘anomalies’ seems to be on the rise. I have also marked two occasions when we touched 0.7 and strangely enough one time we kept pushing higher and the 2nd time we plunged. How the current reading can be interpreted in regards to where equities might swing next should be examined in context. I’m not going to clutter up the post by showing charts of the McClellan and Bullish Percent Index - but in summary both are in slightly bullish territory right now but are not overbought according to recent readings.
This is something to bear in mind when thinking that it may be impossible for us to see even further upside after last week’s rally. It seems that both, the medium and long term trend indicator leaves plenty of room for one of the two blue scenarios (see above).
Last Sunday I said:
Yet another reason why I think we’re due for a little bounce is that the spread between the 30-Year T-Bond yield and Moody’s BAA Corporate Yield has dropped from -4.9 to -4.3 as of January 28th.
Well, the bounce wasn’t that little after all but as of February 4th that spread has increased to -4.57 again. Not a huge increase, but worth noting and if we see this spread continue to expand it might be a harbinger of bearish tape to come.
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-08_gold.png
Gold has been testing my patience - and it’s not the first time. As you know I’m sitting on some GLD puts which are busy burning my theta - grrrrrr. I intend to hold them as long as we stay below 930. Worth noting however is that Gold has not been mirroring Silver’s bullishness of the past few days. A disconnecting between the two is usually a bearish signal, but I won’t pop the champagne unless I see 840 breached for good. Since I bought my puts at 920 I’m however in fairly good shape thus far.
Nothing much to report on the Dollar - it’s stalled a teeny bit but has not breached its bullish pattern. However, since we’re talking currencies, last but not least here’s my chart of the week:
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-08_yen.png
The Yen has been beaten like a dead mule in the past week and is now outside the 2.0 Bollinger band. I think the chart and markings are fairly clear - almost every time we pushed outside the 2.0 BB in the past year we got an almost instant reversal. Now I usually don’t trade currencies but you all know that I do follow the Yen in correlation with the ES futures during NYSE hours (which is usually inverse). With everything else that’s going on right now and the highly anticipated news reports ahead of us on Monday and Tuesday I leave it up to your own imagination how a sudden slingshot rally in the Yen might be interpreted (and acted upon) by our mouth breathing colleagues. I personally will keep a keen eye on the Yen as I expect any fireworks in the currency markets to carry over into equities.
That’s all I’ve got for tonight, rats. The next few days will be critical and perhaps fortunes will be made and lost. I personally hope we’ll all be in the first camp. If nothing else you can be assured that I will be around to monitor the situation in excruciating detail. May the trading Gods have mercy on your portfolio http://evilspeculator.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Cheers!

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hefeiddd 发表于 2009-3-29 18:41

Bears AWOL (thus far)February 9th, 2009 10:04 am Market Forecasts 58 Comments

UPDATE 10:00am EST: As usual the market throws us a curve ball - after being down nicely overnight it pushed up by the open and we’re back in Friday’s VWAP zone.
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/sleepy_bear.jpg
Despite two days of massive rallying and an overbought market the bears remain in hibernation.
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-09_yen.png
What gives me pause is the Yen/ES futures correlation chart. Either this is a bull trap or the bears are in for a massive rectal exam. If we can’t drop on a rallying Yen then it’ll be doubtful we drop today once the Yen reaches short term overbought levels (remember that I only watch this correlation during NYSE hours).
Well, it’s still early in the day - as I’m typing this we just dropped below VWAP on all index futures - maybe it’ll get interesting right now.
UPDATE 10:22am EST: We remain in a range bound market and MM are busy running stops.
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-09_azo.png
Someone
Mmmh - I wonder which link they’ll click first…
UPDATE 10:49am EST: Well, looks like it’s time for the rectal exam. What… you ran out of lubricant? Great…. Seriously now - we’re a few points away from 877.86 - we breach that one and we’re talking blue scenario. Personally I have no idea where the bears are - there seems to be no limit as to how high the tape can be pushed at this point. I keep adding puts until we breach the Jan 28 highs - after that I’ll probably hedge and watch the ensuing rip.

Not Much Longer NowFebruary 8th, 2009 7:02 pm Market Forecasts 109 Comments

Well, maybe. The next two days will be crucial in arriving at a possible resolution of the current whipsaw we have endured for over two months now:
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-08_spx.png
I mean, look at this ugly beast - its simple atrocious. And I haven’t even set this chart into candlestick mode, which would show some very nasty wicks. Of course swingtraders have been loving this but the rest of us rats are worn out to the max and the primary question on our mind is:
Will we get ouf this damn 800 range anytime soon?
I feel your pain and relief might be on the way. On Wednesday the green scenario looked like the winner and many of us were ready to mount the bear and ride it into the abyss (which is the stainless steel version of riding a horse into the sunset - hehe). Fortunately my spidey-paranoia sense kicked in and we were fortunate enough to avoid a bear trap before we all got caught on the receiving end of the stick without lubricant. The sudden spike up has weakened the short term bearish case but has not invalidated it. At this very point in the tape we face three 1/2 possible scenarios (again - I’m sorry):
[*]Green - Minute wave {iii} of Minor 3 of Intermediate (5): This scenario is about to become extinct as a push higher would alter the wave count to the blue scenario. The line in the sand is 877.95 - we breach this January 28 high we’re singing the blues.[*]Blue A - Minute wave {c} of Minor 2 of Intermediate (5): This one assumes that we have not completed wave 2 of (5) yet and that we are tracing out a flat. This might get us all the way to 925.67, which would constitute 165% of the length of its {a} wave. My money however would be on the ‘magic’ 920 line.[*]Blue B - Minor wave C of Intermediate (4): That was the original scenario I was tracing out back in October. It’s kind of interesting in that we could reverse around the same level as in the Blue A scenario, or depending on the level of irrational exuberance we might just bust higher into 1020.[*]Orange - Minute wave {b} of Minor D of Intermediate (4): Yes, it’s that damn triangle again - and that would would also have us drop fairly soon (but maybe a bit later than the green one) and then reverse yet one more time to complete its wave E. I’m not sure how realistic this one is, but it’s a possibility. As you can see on the chart, the area around 770 - 790 will be the separation point. If we bounce from there a triangle it is.You might have noticed that all three of my scenarios expect that the November 21 lows will be breached.
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-08_cycle_1_of_c1.png
As it stands primary wave {1} of cycle c still appears to be incomplete and according to EWT rules in conjunction with our current higher degree wave count we need to complete a fifth wave to the downside before we are ready to embark on a multi-month corrective wave (i.e. {2} of c).
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-08_cpc.png
The current CBOE Put/Call Ratio readings are puzzling to me. Traditionally a touch below the 0.8 level almost guarantees a plunge to the downside, but I have marked three cases in orange where it didn’t happen - and the number of occurrences of such ‘anomalies’ seems to be on the rise. I have also marked two occasions when we touched 0.7 and strangely enough one time we kept pushing higher and the 2nd time we plunged. How the current reading can be interpreted in regards to where equities might swing next should be examined in context. I’m not going to clutter up the post by showing charts of the McClellan and Bullish Percent Index - but in summary both are in slightly bullish territory right now but are not overbought according to recent readings.
This is something to bear in mind when thinking that it may be impossible for us to see even further upside after last week’s rally. It seems that both, the medium and long term trend indicator leaves plenty of room for one of the two blue scenarios (see above).
Last Sunday I said:
Yet another reason why I think we’re due for a little bounce is that the spread between the 30-Year T-Bond yield and Moody’s BAA Corporate Yield has dropped from -4.9 to -4.3 as of January 28th.
Well, the bounce wasn’t that little after all but as of February 4th that spread has increased to -4.57 again. Not a huge increase, but worth noting and if we see this spread continue to expand it might be a harbinger of bearish tape to come.
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-08_gold.png
Gold has been testing my patience - and it’s not the first time. As you know I’m sitting on some GLD puts which are busy burning my theta - grrrrrr. I intend to hold them as long as we stay below 930. Worth noting however is that Gold has not been mirroring Silver’s bullishness of the past few days. A disconnecting between the two is usually a bearish signal, but I won’t pop the champagne unless I see 840 breached for good. Since I bought my puts at 920 I’m however in fairly good shape thus far.
Nothing much to report on the Dollar - it’s stalled a teeny bit but has not breached its bullish pattern. However, since we’re talking currencies, last but not least here’s my chart of the week:
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-08_yen.png
The Yen has been beaten like a dead mule in the past week and is now outside the 2.0 Bollinger band. I think the chart and markings are fairly clear - almost every time we pushed outside the 2.0 BB in the past year we got an almost instant reversal. Now I usually don’t trade currencies but you all know that I do follow the Yen in correlation with the ES futures during NYSE hours (which is usually inverse). With everything else that’s going on right now and the highly anticipated news reports ahead of us on Monday and Tuesday I leave it up to your own imagination how a sudden slingshot rally in the Yen might be interpreted (and acted upon) by our mouth breathing colleagues. I personally will keep a keen eye on the Yen as I expect any fireworks in the currency markets to carry over into equities.
That’s all I’ve got for tonight, rats. The next few days will be critical and perhaps fortunes will be made and lost. I personally hope we’ll all be in the first camp. If nothing else you can be assured that I will be around to monitor the situation in excruciating detail. May the trading Gods have mercy on your portfolio http://evilspeculator.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Cheers!

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Newer Entries

hefeiddd 发表于 2009-3-30 07:37

Not Much Longer NowFebruary 8th, 2009 7:02 pm Market Forecasts 109 Comments

Well, maybe. The next two days will be crucial in arriving at a possible resolution of the current whipsaw we have endured for over two months now:
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-08_spx.png
I mean, look at this ugly beast - its simple atrocious. And I haven’t even set this chart into candlestick mode, which would show some very nasty wicks. Of course swingtraders have been loving this but the rest of us rats are worn out to the max and the primary question on our mind is:
Will we get ouf this damn 800 range anytime soon?
I feel your pain and relief might be on the way. On Wednesday the green scenario looked like the winner and many of us were ready to mount the bear and ride it into the abyss (which is the stainless steel version of riding a horse into the sunset - hehe). Fortunately my spidey-paranoia sense kicked in and we were fortunate enough to avoid a bear trap before we all got caught on the receiving end of the stick without lubricant. The sudden spike up has weakened the short term bearish case but has not invalidated it. At this very point in the tape we face three 1/2 possible scenarios (again - I’m sorry):
[*]Green - Minute wave {iii} of Minor 3 of Intermediate (5): This scenario is about to become extinct as a push higher would alter the wave count to the blue scenario. The line in the sand is 877.95 - we breach this January 28 high we’re singing the blues.[*]Blue A - Minute wave {c} of Minor 2 of Intermediate (5): This one assumes that we have not completed wave 2 of (5) yet and that we are tracing out a flat. This might get us all the way to 925.67, which would constitute 165% of the length of its {a} wave. My money however would be on the ‘magic’ 920 line.[*]Blue B - Minor wave C of Intermediate (4): That was the original scenario I was tracing out back in October. It’s kind of interesting in that we could reverse around the same level as in the Blue A scenario, or depending on the level of irrational exuberance we might just bust higher into 1020.[*]Orange - Minute wave {b} of Minor D of Intermediate (4): Yes, it’s that damn triangle again - and that would would also have us drop fairly soon (but maybe a bit later than the green one) and then reverse yet one more time to complete its wave E. I’m not sure how realistic this one is, but it’s a possibility. As you can see on the chart, the area around 770 - 790 will be the separation point. If we bounce from there a triangle it is.You might have noticed that all three of my scenarios expect that the November 21 lows will be breached.
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-08_cycle_1_of_c1.png
As it stands primary wave {1} of cycle c still appears to be incomplete and according to EWT rules in conjunction with our current higher degree wave count we need to complete a fifth wave to the downside before we are ready to embark on a multi-month corrective wave (i.e. {2} of c).
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-08_cpc.png
The current CBOE Put/Call Ratio readings are puzzling to me. Traditionally a touch below the 0.8 level almost guarantees a plunge to the downside, but I have marked three cases in orange where it didn’t happen - and the number of occurrences of such ‘anomalies’ seems to be on the rise. I have also marked two occasions when we touched 0.7 and strangely enough one time we kept pushing higher and the 2nd time we plunged. How the current reading can be interpreted in regards to where equities might swing next should be examined in context. I’m not going to clutter up the post by showing charts of the McClellan and Bullish Percent Index - but in summary both are in slightly bullish territory right now but are not overbought according to recent readings.
This is something to bear in mind when thinking that it may be impossible for us to see even further upside after last week’s rally. It seems that both, the medium and long term trend indicator leaves plenty of room for one of the two blue scenarios (see above).
Last Sunday I said:
Yet another reason why I think we’re due for a little bounce is that the spread between the 30-Year T-Bond yield and Moody’s BAA Corporate Yield has dropped from -4.9 to -4.3 as of January 28th.
Well, the bounce wasn’t that little after all but as of February 4th that spread has increased to -4.57 again. Not a huge increase, but worth noting and if we see this spread continue to expand it might be a harbinger of bearish tape to come.
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-08_gold.png
Gold has been testing my patience - and it’s not the first time. As you know I’m sitting on some GLD puts which are busy burning my theta - grrrrrr. I intend to hold them as long as we stay below 930. Worth noting however is that Gold has not been mirroring Silver’s bullishness of the past few days. A disconnecting between the two is usually a bearish signal, but I won’t pop the champagne unless I see 840 breached for good. Since I bought my puts at 920 I’m however in fairly good shape thus far.
Nothing much to report on the Dollar - it’s stalled a teeny bit but has not breached its bullish pattern. However, since we’re talking currencies, last but not least here’s my chart of the week:
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-08_yen.png
The Yen has been beaten like a dead mule in the past week and is now outside the 2.0 Bollinger band. I think the chart and markings are fairly clear - almost every time we pushed outside the 2.0 BB in the past year we got an almost instant reversal. Now I usually don’t trade currencies but you all know that I do follow the Yen in correlation with the ES futures during NYSE hours (which is usually inverse). With everything else that’s going on right now and the highly anticipated news reports ahead of us on Monday and Tuesday I leave it up to your own imagination how a sudden slingshot rally in the Yen might be interpreted (and acted upon) by our mouth breathing colleagues. I personally will keep a keen eye on the Yen as I expect any fireworks in the currency markets to carry over into equities.
That’s all I’ve got for tonight, rats. The next few days will be critical and perhaps fortunes will be made and lost. I personally hope we’ll all be in the first camp. If nothing else you can be assured that I will be around to monitor the situation in excruciating detail. May the trading Gods have mercy on your portfolio http://evilspeculator.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Cheers!

hefeiddd 发表于 2009-3-30 07:38

February 7th, 2009 3:30 pm Market News 165 Comments

We need to a comment cleaner (you guys are out of hand) and this is a good opportunity for a Saturday afternoon reality check. Nothing charges me up more than to scare my leeches into complete submission:
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-07_world2.png
In case you wonder - no, this is not a heat map projecting the impact of global warming (it might actually very well be). Rather, it’s a geographic representation of the impact this financial crisis will exert across various nations as projected by a recent LEAP report.
LEAP/E2020 has studied the situation for the main countries and regions of the world along seven precise criteria enabling to measure their degree of immunity to the financial detonator.

[*]Share of the economy dedicated to the financial sector [*]Share of the economy dedicated to services [*]Level of household debt [*]Quality of financial system and household assets [*]Relative amount of public debt (municipalities and social systems included) [*]Relative amount of external debt (trade and payment) [*]Share of capital-based pensions on overall pension fund system.Based on these criteria, team was able to identify 6 major groups of countries hardly related geographically but with similar profiles.
The report goes with a projection of approximately how long each of these regions will be affected and also elaborates on main challenges in overcoming this systemic crisis. Great stuff to say the least.
It pains me to say this as a brand new citizen of this nation - but the U.S. is toast - we’re done for. What you are witnessing is a complete reset of our geo-political and global economic landscape. If you are planning your retirement you might want to head over to their site to read the report in full - there is also some other valuable information. Some of it might guide you when making decisions that will affect the long term well-being of your family.
Rats - we better bank some serious coin going forward. If you depend on a day job there’s a real chance you will lose it - if not this year then perhaps the next. If you won’t take the hit then maybe your wife will or one of your close relatives. I truly believe that almost no U.S. household will be spared.
I want to be very clear on this people, as some of you might be lured into buying the impending media hype, claiming that the ‘worst is over’ and that it’s all uphill from here. Of course - that’s what the ruling elite always tells their minions - the truth, after all, is politically inconvenient. You don’t win elections or maintain control by telling everyone that they’re screwed. Which is why we see bullish sentiment kick into high gear every time the market bounces up by a few points. And I expect nothing less in a few weeks from now when we phase into a temporary stock market recovery that I expect will last a few months and will end by fall at the latest. Don’t be fooled and only use it as an opportunity to bank short term profits. The days of ‘buy and hold’ are over and unless you are under 40 you will probably not see it return during the tenure of your professional career.
Always remember that the economy and the stock market are detached. Think of it like a mirror image - and a warped one at best. What you see in the mirror is only a reflection of reality and we all know the game is rigged. Your economy is a lot more depressing than it appears.
Things are going to get a lot worse before they get better - a lot worse. As stainless steel rats survival is our main mission - so, let’s pull together and help each other through this crisis.
Quote of the week:
“Gold will be restrained until the average person has no capacity to buy it.” — Enfinity
No Bear In SightFebruary 6th, 2009 1:26 pm Intraday Update, Trade 325 Comments

UPDATE 1:23pm EST: We keep busting higher without a bear in sight - bulls are seizing the opportunity to bust the tape higher. Nothing pushes markets higher than mass unemployment - raises ‘productivity’ (i.e. jumper cables on employees’ nuts) after all.
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-06_165.png
Final line in the sand is 876.79 - a few ticks below the January 28 high. If we breach that one the wave count has to be re-evaluated. And wave count or not - breach of that high would make me very cautious.
Today is a good example of the old expression “The market can stay irrational a lot longer than you can stay solvent.” http://evilspeculator.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
UPDATE 1:44pm EST: I love the smell of max pain in the afternoon - the bulls are not done yet, just FYI.
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-06_yen_futures.png
Check out this 20 day Bollinger around the Yen - way oversold. The Yen has taken it in the rear in the past 2 days and we are way outside the lower band. What you think will happen next? And what would happen to an overbought equities market when that happens?
UPDATE 2:10pm EST: Let’s review Exhibit C:
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-06_weekly.png
Well, unless we’ll see a 60 point plunge in the next 2 hours it’s safe to assume we’ll end the week up. Remember that weekly chart I showed you guys last Friday? Well, there you have it - we got some relief from oversold conditions. I don’t know about you but I’m ready to roll next week - adding puts as we climb the latter.
UPDATE 3:37pm EST: I see more permabulls stepping in to keep the tape above VWAP. Oh yes, please - make my day. I’m buying puts now on every f…ing rip http://evilspeculator.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
UPDATE Closing Bell: Wow, today was a very productive day - can’t wait for Monday. Enjoy your weekend rats - I’ll be chiming in sometime Sunday afternoon to bring you up to speed of what I think awaits us next week. FYI - I exchanged my June puts for massive amounts of Feb/March far OTM puts - was loading up on every rip. If we rally up next week my punishment will be mild - if however we drop into the abyss (as hoped), well you do the math…
Cheers!

hefeiddd 发表于 2009-3-30 07:38

February 6th, 2009 12:31 pm Intraday Update 140 Comments

UPDATE 12:30pm EST: It’s time rats!

The next 100 comments I see better have symbols in it. Let me rip the lid off of this one with POT:
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-06_pot.png
Could bust a liiiiittle higher - but that diagonal should offer some resistance. And yes, noobs - we’re talking shorts/puts here.
UPDATE 12:35pm EST: Oh my god, oh my god, oh my goooooddd!!!
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-06_cpc.png
I’m getting really giddy over here - this is going to be fun. Frankly, offhand I have no idea when we were at such lows in the CPC. Fantastic!!
This thing has been a long time in the making - we had to go through all stages of evolution to get to this point. Not much farther now - I can smell it…

UPDATE 12:55pm EST: Pickings are still slim - looks like a bit more upside is in the cards - if you can believe that.
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-06_isrg.png
ISRG - let it come to you.

hefeiddd 发表于 2009-3-30 07:39

February 6th, 2009 9:53 am Intraday Update 131 Comments

UPDATE 9:51pm EST: We reached the point of A-C equality - I cut some of my hedges.
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-06_equality.png
If we breach this level we probably bust higher to breach the Jan 28 highs and green is off the table. Important levels here.
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/equality1.jpg
UPDATE 10:48am EST: The longer we hang around up here burning downward momentum (i.e. stochastic/MACD) the bigger the chance that we might bust higher. If we keep dropping in those momentum indictors without any weakening in price consider hedging or dumping your puts and reloading higher up. We’ve been up here now for an hour - thus far I don’t see any weakness which alerts me.
UPDATE 11:11am EST: LOL - I guess I was right in being paranoid - higher we go. 864 is the 78.6% fib line and worthwhile watching. FYI - the C line of a flat is usually between 100% - 165%, so the max would be somewhere 875 - just below the Jan 28 high.
UPDATE 12:16pm EST: It seems the bears are back in hibernation today (and yesterday). We are burning momentum again without dropping in price - major buyers are pushing this market higher. Mentally here’s where I am: I sincerely hope we get a monster rally into the close and touch 875 - at this point I would bulk up on Feb (yes - you read that right) and March puts.
For the record - I’m not fighting the tape. Today the trend is UP - and as of this writing there are no signs of weakness in equities. At the same time we are reaching extremely overbought levels and I have to take advantage of that.
In other news - check out Gold, which again is not participating - worth noting http://evilspeculator.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
One ChartFebruary 5th, 2009 9:29 pm Market Forecasts 129 Comments

Leonidas I, king of Sparta, who, when a neighbor state needed military aid, would send one man.
When catching up with this afternoon’s comments over here as well as on the Slope I sense two very distinct sentiments:
[*]Fear[*]ConfusionConfusion is the easy one as it’s natural to be a bit puzzled after today’s tape. Technically speaking it’s not really an ‘emotion’ - more of a state of mind. If at the end of 2008 you thought to yourself you’ve seen it all - well - the market just proved you wrong. The past month has been simply horrid and many traders out there have paid their dues. If you were spared one day you probably got hit the next. To lose your orientation, your bearings, is a very scary thing - in life and especially in trading.
Which brings us to fear. It has cost the careers of a many traders as it hits you out of nowhere and leads into making decisions you would not consider in your wildest dreams when you are of rational mind. Fear makes us choke up and dispense with carefully crafted plans to seek shelter and to make the pain stop. It’s what market makers feed on - it’s like an elixir to them. The more panicky, frustrated, and afraid investors are the more money they make. I call it the dark force of trading as it brings out the worst in some traders and the best in others.
One trait I always admired when trading alongside Berk was that he was absolutely fearless when it comes to taking losses. Sometimes that backfired for him, but more often than not he proved to be right in the end. No matter how much the market moved against him he was able to pull the trigger at the top - buying when others were heading for the hills.
Some people are more cold blooded than others and you cannot fool yourself. If you’re Mr. Iceman then you’ll smile through draw-downs but no matter how many Zen meditation classes you take, if you’re sweating when the losses start to accumulate you better always have an extra shirt ready.
The difference is how we deal with our fear - no matter how much of it grips us. The way I harness my own fear is to re-evaluate my approach constantly and put myself into the shoes of the other side. If I was a bull - how far would I drive this market up right now? What is the one level that breaches the pain threshold of the majority of the bears? For some reason I am able to call the market’s gyrations fairly well, but trading it often is another story - maybe I re-hedged too early today - maybe it was the right thing to do. Doubt sets in, which needs to be overcome. A lot can happen during the heat of the trading day and if you find yourself looking forward to the closing bell then it’s probably time to step back and give yourself a break.
What I did this afternoon was - nothing. I actually sat down and watched an old movie I had on my Tivo for quite a while now. Not sure if you guys have seen it - The Legend of Bagger Vance - Jack Lemon’s last movie btw. Anyway - when I came back all it took was one look at my charts to make sense of it all. Who knows why - all day I was seeing a lot of valuable things - but the big picture was right there, staring me in the face. So, I started to draw lines and suddenly everything was lining up just fine.
Tonight I’m going to send you only one single chart - just like Leonidas -which is all you need to see:
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-05_spx.png
I’m not going to talk about the damn wave count tonight - someone said that I have changed it multiple times (not true - I only offered three scenarios for the past weeks which I was narrowing down). I think it’s very obvious how it all connects and we need to do. No matter where we go tomorrow I think the lines you see (and the highlights) can offer you very reasonable and real action items.
See? Feeling better now? Got your bearings back? My plan is to start un-hedging tomorrow morning no matter which way we go. If we breach 865 (the 78.6% fib) then I will simply take a step back and re-evaluate the situation. Done.
Cheers!

hefeiddd 发表于 2009-3-30 07:40

February 5th, 2009 2:01 pm Intraday Update 56 Comments

UPDATE 1:55pm EST: So far the ES 844 R4 pivot has held but I’m still a bit suspicious about a possible snap to the upside. The Yen is actually pushing up and equities have been burning a lot of MACD/stochastics without giving up any points. Not good - I’m really torn here between not wanting to re-hedge at the top and not wanting to take it up the rat’s rectum towards the end of the day. I need to see some movement now - the longer we hang out up here the weaker the short term bearish case.
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-05_channel2.png
Since channels have worked well for us lately let’s watch this one.
UPDATE 2:08pm EST: FYI - I just rehedged myself when we breached this channel. Maybe it’s a mistake and I locked in profits here but I don’t enjoy seeing the Yen pushing up and trend indicators burning down without equities giving up any points. Smelled like a consolidation before a big push to the upside.
UPDATE 2:22pm EST: Take a look at this little nugget:
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-05_yen.png
You know this chart by now - and it’s not looking good for the short term bearish case.
Breach!February 5th, 2009 12:15 pm Intraday Update 59 Comments

UPDATE 12:12pm EST: We breached the Jan 28 high on the NDX:
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-05_ndx.png
I unhedged a bit early but at least I didn’t get hit starting at the bottom. It seems that we’re going to complete this zigzag and probably bust a bit higher. My line in the sand before hedging again is 1286 on the NDX and 944 on the SPX. If we cross those lines then we might have to start thinking about the blue scenario again - sheeeessh - I wish this market would make up its mind.
Tough trading environment - just look at the past few days’ tape. But now you know why I was warning everyone yesterday night and this morning.
Only the paranoid survive.
UPDATE 12:37pm EST: Okay, we are dropping now but I wanted to warn you about a possible scenario:
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2009-02-05_flat.png
Either we are done here and will continue to drop - OR we push down and then rally higher. The wave count would then be a flat - in that I see a 3 up, a 3 down, and if it completes a 5 up. So, if you are delta negative watch the current levels. I also am keeping an eye on the Yen for a possible recovery - it’s weak as heck today, which I warned about early on.
Anyway, I’m not saying that this is what will happen but what could happen. If it does happen we will probably see a reversal to the upside here around 838 - 840 in the ES futures. A move like that would also confirm that breach in the NDX.
UPDATE 1:00pm EST: Okay, watch your gauges now, you evil rats! If we get a reversal this is where it will happen.

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