四月 22, 2008 - 02:17 下午Semi-SatisfiedToday was a pretty good day. Ninety minutes before the close, it was a really good day. However, IWM and OIH recovered to some degree. In spite of that, we still whacked over 100 points off the Dow 30 and enjoyed a decent drop in oil-related items. So I'mnot complaining.
I've removed the "intra-Fib" retracements on the IWM, since I'm frankly not sure where they belong. I'd rather not be basing decisions on levels I'm not positive are valid. So we remain between the very broad ~64 to ~72 range on the IWM, somewhat near the upper range. We had a drop today on the best volume we've seen in about a month. It goes without saying that we need to stay below last Friday's highs to have a prayer in this market.
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The Dow dropped away from the psychologically important 13,000 level. I've drawn a red line at 12,900 which seems to be the neckline (as it were) for this pattern. There's a heck of a lot of support between 11,800 and 12,800 - - a thousand points is a lot to chop through.
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I've expressed concern several times about the Transports. This pattern isn't exactly acting like a launching point. It's still intact, but a drop beneath about 4,800 would render it impotent.
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The NASDAQ Composite (which is going to get affected strongly after tomorrow's AAPL earnings) is likewise beneath its ~2,420 horizontal line. We've also got the advantage of being at the upper end of that channel you see.
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I confess to being obsessed with OIH these days. In spite of a record close (yet again) for crude oil, we actually fell more than a percentage point here. As you can see, OIH is a good 40 points above any really serious support. But, God almighty, this thing has a lot of bulls behind it.
confess to being obsessed with OIH these days. In spite of a record close (yet again) for crude oil, we actually fell more than a percentage point here. As you can see, OIH is a good 40 points above any really serious support. But, God almighty, this thing has a lot of bulls behind it.
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I've got a decent-sized position on the Russell 2000 (and the NASDAQ 100) indexes. Around 725 or so is the extremely important line in the sand.
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There are plenty of stocks which are tempting to short simply because they are really "expensive." I put that in quotes, because shorting these momentum plays is dangerous. I have done it in a few cases, but usually I'm a little sensible and avoid stuff like CLF....
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.......and PBR. All the same, I wouldn't be surprised (one day, one day) to see these get crushed. They could remain in a full bull pattern, but even a "easing back" to the trendline could blow 30% to 40% off of these.
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I did buy puts in NLY. I usually don't go for such cheap stocks, but this one is pretty alluring.
I did buy puts in NLY. I usually don't go for such cheap stocks, but this one is pretty alluring.
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I've also got puts in APA. It's dangerous, of course, but there's got to be a falling-away from these bands sometime soon.
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AAPL had a nice down day, but a GOOG-like event after tomorrow's close would knock these out. We'll see.
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I like my BHI puts a lot, not only due to the Bollinger Bands, but also due to that trendline retracement.
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XEC is another nutty momentum one. I didn't say I was immune to pursuing these. I just try to keep them from being all my positions!
XEC is another nutty momentum one. I didn't say I was immune to pursuing these. I just try to keep them from being all my positions!
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If CNX fell to sometime like $70, I'd probably close it. But that's still 15 points away.
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First Solar (FSLR) is above $300, but I'm staying away. Its pattern is still plausibly bullish. Its cousin, though, SPWR, looks far more vulnerable.
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Finally, my holding with GENZ did pretty well today. This pattern continues to shape up.
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I will be traveling on business over the next 30 hours from this writing, so posts will be less frequent (and comments near non-existent). Be strong!
Posted: 02:17 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
四月 21, 2008 - 02:44 下午OIH=Oh, I HopedForgive me, readers, for I have sinned.
In my three rules, the very first one I state - which I consider the most important - is to never lack a stop price. I had a position on OIH. I had a stop at $195. And as it, to my amazement, approached that level, I simply cancelled the stop.
That was really, really dumb. My "three rules" were crafted over many years of hard experience. I say "no exceptions" for a reason. Telling myself I'd ride out the tide and see how it goes was the kind of mistake an amateur makes.
Well, you know how this story ends. OIH kept grinding higher and higher, and once it reached $208, I couldn't take the pain anymore, so I sold my puts at a far greater loss than if I had simply let the stop do its work.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=589
Now, at this point, there is a possibility OIH could temporarily top out and weaken. But - - again - - simply hanging onto a position and hoping for the best is idiocy. Shame on me.
OK, enough self-flagellation for the moment. The market continues to be far stronger than I'd like to see. Yeah, the Dow fell a little today, but I still think we're in "retracement-land". I am watching, for example, the $MSH. I am OK with it so long as it stays beneath that horizontal line.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=590
One key component, of course, is Apple, which reports after the close on Wednesday. Errr, needless to say, everyone is going to be watching this like a hawk after-hours, particularly given GOOG's incredible blow-out last week.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=591
As for oil - in spite of my debacle with OIH, I still have a lot of oil-related shorts. Chart-wise, there is a lot of interesting activity here. BHI has fully retraced to what I consider a face shorting zone.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=592
And CVX - even on a day when oil hit yet another record - is showing weakness. I'm thinking "quadruple top" when I look at this.
And CVX - even on a day when oil hit yet another record - is showing weakness. I'm thinking "quadruple top" when I look at this.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=593
My martyr complex is on full-blast right now, so I'd say the video below represents my vision of what a Slope Convention in Vegas would be like in August. A few of the dramatis personae......
[*]Jesus H. Christ - Tim (who else?)[*]Mary Magdalene - Jana (understudy: Avalon)[*]Judas Iscariot - JakeGint[*]Simon Zealotes - Peachin[*]King Herod - Ned[*]Caiaphas- Abby Joseph Cohen[*]Pontius Pilate - Beanie
Posted: 02:44 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
四月 18, 2008 - 03:58 下午A Tale of Two CitiesIt was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way--in short, the period was so far like the present period, that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only.
I think this sums up the current state of affairs. On one hand, the economic news is terrible, people are losing their jobs and their homes, and the cost of living is exploding higher. On the other hand, you've got hedge fund managers with annual take-home pay in the billions of dollars, gigantic 300 foot personal yachts, mile-high skyscrapers, and all the other madness of showy wealth. One wonders when the increasing wealth gap is going to plunge the world back into socialism. What's happening now is not good.
The indexes today shot higher, ignited by Google's earnings the Citicorp's not-so-awful report. Commodities - and oil in particular - were simply nuts today. Here's a snapshot of key indexes and what I view as some important lines:
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I mentioned oil - - the OIH is stark, raving mad. I don't tend to use "rubber trendlines", but I've had to with this one. That upper bound keeps getting pushed higher. And it's at the tippy-top of its Bollinger Band.
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I'm pressed for time now, so no time for commentary. I'm just going to throw charts your way. Here are some stocks from my current holdings on which I own puts and feel pretty good about (tip of the hat to ISRG today; you took away all the pain and more from my GOOG put).
I'm pressed for time now, so no time for commentary. I'm just going to throw charts your way. Here are some stocks from my current holdings on which I own puts and feel pretty good about (tip of the hat to ISRG today; you took away all the pain and more from my GOOG put).
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That's it from me. In contrast to last Friday (when GE got torpedoed), this week was suck-o-roony. I truly hope next week is better. Until then, I bid you farewell!
Posted: 03:58 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
四月 18, 2008 - 10:41 上午How High Will OIH Go?Although as of this writing OIH is a little off its intraday high (208.52 was the high, and it is at 207.24 now), the rise has been astonishing. Ever since 9/11 (which, weirdly, seems to be just about the low of this market - - - whoever thought war would create cheap oil???) OIH is up about 340%.
I am not sure how much stock to put into Fibonacci extensions, but just for the hell of it, I decided to see where the extension would take OIH. The answer is 233.55, which frankly at 12% away is only a couple of strong days away (the OIH is up about 8% today alone). Gawd.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=550
Posted: 10:41 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
四月 18, 2008 - 08:59 上午Death by OilI am awestruck by OIH. It seems to have no upper limit. Ugh.
The one bright spot today as been ISRG. This stock had a huge run-up over the years.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=548
As of today, it's taking a wallop. This could be the start of a fundamentally major downturn for this stock, but for me, I'm happy taking my profits, since this stock has, in a single day, been pushed all the way back to this medium-term trendline.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=549
As for OIH, I'm going to embrace my inner idiot and simply hold on tight.
Posted: 08:59 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
四月 16, 2008 - 07:41 上午Oil SlickWell, that's that for my OIH puts. The price crossed $195, and bang, I'm out.
Indeed, a whole raft of my commodity-oriented shorts have blown up in my face today. Not pretty.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=526
Posted: 07:41 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
四月 11, 2008 - 04:17 下午Watch All Five. Top to Bottom.
Posted: 04:17 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
四月 09, 2008 - 04:30 下午Handle With CareWell, over the past couple of days, I've discovered a couple of things about Slope readers.
[*]They are committed germophobes. At least Jana and AssetStrategist. Wussies.[*]They have passionate views about Elliott Wave. I don't think I've ever received as many emails on a single topic (except for that time that I sang a capella).Today was a good day for me, in spite of the continued rise of oil and gold. The Russell 2000 fell below 700 for the first time since the April Fool's Day Rally, and it closed near its lows of the day.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=439
The Dow Transports, which had been worrying me a bit due to a possible breakout, fell particularly sharply (due, I suppose to UPS' warning).
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=440
Of particular interest was the drop on the $XBD securities broker/deal index. I've got puts on a number of investment banks (including GS and LEH), and this chart to me is a picture-perfect "waterfall" with a plain series of lower lows and lower highs. May it continue!
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=441
I have 75 different positions now - all of them puts (as is almost always the case). Here are a few worth pointing out........
America Movil (AMX), like the $TRAN, was threatening a breakout, but it is starting to fall away. Failed bullish breakouts made for great bear meat.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=442
BIDU (which reports earnings, weirdly, on Saturday) isn't a slam-dunk, but an earnings disappointment here could easily nuke 40-50 points off the price.
BIDU (which reports earnings, weirdly, on Saturday) isn't a slam-dunk, but an earnings disappointment here could easily nuke 40-50 points off the price.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=443
FXI is finally starting to click. The climb from $120 to $150 (25% in just a couple of weeks!) is beginning to erode.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=444
A somewhat more speculative play on my books is ISRG, which had been a barnstormer until the end of last year. Here again we have the prospect of a failed bullish breakout. The stop on all of these is obviously the horizontal line.
四月 07, 2008 - 02:17 下午Squeezably Soft
Posted: 02:17 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 27, 2009 - 09:45 上午Maybe It's the Aeron ChairI'm having a better day than yesterday, but in this market, things can switch from great to awful intraday in the blink of an eye. So I'm counting on nothing, and I'm looking forward to the end of this dreadful week!
In the meantime, I'm pretty bearish on the energy side of things.
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Posted: 09:45 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 27, 2009 - 08:52 上午LodgeNetThis stock sticks out as special for me because it's up about 140% from my purchase price a couple of weeks ago.
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You can probably see why it was attractive - - it hammered out a good base from late November all the way through early March, and it refused to go any lower, even with all that tumult. So for a stock that had gone from nearly $40 to almost 40 cents, it was an intriguing play. The challenge, as always, is when to sell. The volume is not impressive at all, but I think I'll hold on until about $3.
Posted: 08:52 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 27, 2009 - 07:47 上午Morning Put IdeasOriginal [*]Present
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Posted: 07:47 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 26, 2009 - 10:57 上午My Four Favorite Long Positions
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I like FAZ today, by the way, due to banks' relative weakness to the other indexes.
Posted: 10:57 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 26, 2009 - 08:34 上午Suntech PowerThe most fervent hope I have for myself as a trader is to one day be as good a bull as I am a bear. On a scale of 1 to 10, I'd give myself an 8 as a bear (I shave off 2 points for getting out too soon), but a 3 as a bull (and I'm probably being terribly generous).
One challenge I have is expressed in the chart below; here is STP, which I own........
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This stock is up 100% from where I bought it. Now, for a short, that is the theoretical limit, but a long could obviously go up more than 100%. The challenge for me is that, as a person reliant on stops, the stop on a chart like this is so far away it would constitute most of the profits. And second, my bearish tendencies let me see things go down easier than up. I guess in the case of STP, I could probably convince myself to hold as high as 30, where serious resistance exists.
Posted: 08:34 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 26, 2009 - 07:45 上午The Great Barrier ReefLet me introduce you to my best friend right now:
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3896
Although the bulls have a government on their side which is willing to sacrifice the future of the country for some very short-term gains, there is something the bears have on their side as well: an astonishing amount of overhead supply.
The market put on its rocket boosters from 666 to 825 because there was very little standing in its way. The fall from 825 to 666 was swift and virtually uninterrupted. The market, being a two-edged sword,had little trouble moving the other way (a few trillion dollars in freshly-minted currency helped, too).
The point is that, even if sometime this year we do keep pushing our way higher, it's going to be quite a slog. The chart doesn't require interpretation - - - the cold fact of the matter is that from 825 to 1025 there is a giant slime pit of overhead supply that is going to make every point higher a struggle.
Posted: 07:45 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 26, 2009 - 07:40 上午About Those Lottery PicksI'm going to kick off the day talking about the one account which has been thriving, and that's my IRA (which was also my best percentage-gainer last year). Regular readers know this is my least flexible account - - no margin, no shorting, no options, no futures. Just cash-only longs are permitted.
In spite of that, it has done, and continues to do, well. My strategy on this one is consistent - - - a multitude of small positions in battered, cheaply-priced stocks that seem to have made a base. LVLT, up 20% in pre-market this morning, is a good example:
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3895&state=present&height=600&width=600
You can look at first watch list "Long Stocks (High Risk") to see all my holdings there. I prefer adding positions when the market is really soft, but I'll be scouting around for more picks like these, since I think, percentage-wise, this portfolio has the best prospects for gains in the coming months.
Posted: 07:40 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 25, 2009 - 08:36 下午Back in BlackOK, this blog is getting too emotional. I need to drink more sake, I guess. Perhaps during the entire trading day.
Well, I've finished my merciless sweep of commenters, and I've banned................zero. I'm too committed to free speech to hack away wildly. If anyone is over-the-top, I'll nuke 'em. But, hell, even piggy said he didn't meant any harm, so he's alive and well.
The past five or six trading days have been, for the most part, horribly disorienting. It really takes the joy out of trading. But the market does what the market does, and we have to adapt. I've been buying TWM lately, trying to take advantage of what I think will be a dip in my old friend the Russell 2000 (which used to get mentioned as frequently as the /ES does now)
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3894
I think I am so shellshocked from the past week that almost nothing will freak me out tomorrow. 35-point one-hour tears on the /ES notwithstanding, I think I'm jaded enough at the moment to tolerate just about anything.
I enjoyed my 120-minute hiatus from comments. I'm back now. See you in the morning. I'll have my steel codpiece on.
Posted: 08:36 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 25, 2009 - 01:05 下午Did the Market Tip Its Hand?Well, that stunk! We went from busting above 821 (exciting the bulls), plunging 35 points within just a couple of hours (exciting the bears), and then - - with the generous help of our good friends the PPT - - soaring 25 points in the span of an hour. I imagine pretty much everyone is ticked off at this point. I know I am.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3893
I'm inclined to wonder if the sell-off was the market tipping its hand. The green area above is vintage PPT.
I've had quite enough of charts for now, thank you very much. Back to the slope (the one with snow, not this one), and back to clearing my mind!
Posted: 01:05 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 25, 2009 - 11:27 上午Megaphone of UncertaintyThe S&P (here, the /ES) is just wild. Earlier we were up 150 on the Dow, then we were down 40. My own portfolio went from down $35k to up $35k in the span of two hours.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3892
This market requires nerves (or any other body element you choose to name) of steel.
Posted: 11:27 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 25, 2009 - 10:29 上午Hey, Mo!
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3891&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3891&state=present&height=600&width=600
Looks like a good short here too.
Posted: 10:29 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 25, 2009 - 10:04 上午My Lack of Fashion SenseShort JWN. Stop=18.26 (one penny above retracement).
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3890&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3890&state=present&height=600&width=600
Posted: 10:04 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink