And, oh, yes, my good friend $UTIL. I walked into the palatial office of my network guys today, and I wrote "SDP" in huge letters on their whiteboard. There is no more "jumping the gun" here. This is a head and shoulders. It's complete. The neckline is cut. And this thing is ready to rock.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1604&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1604&state=present&height=600&width=600
The Beijing Olympics (which had the inexplicable magical power to lift the Chinese stock market - - I still don't understand the logic behind that one) starts on Friday. Does this mean we can look forward to a serious plunge after the games are over? As if it hasn't plunged enough. I bought some FXP today (it's been quite a while..........).
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1603&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1603&state=present&height=600&width=600
My puts are strictly on the $RUT, and the position isn't that huge. I might even take it off the table thanks to almost assured Fed wackiness Tuesday at 2:15 EST. As for the $NDX, I'm keeping a close eye on this one to see if it marches toward the fanline above or snaps its ways down to the line below.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1606&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1606&state=present&height=600&width=600
The Russell 2000 - - awww, should I even say it? - - OK, my apologies - - is in the formative stages of the mother of all patterns. There is huge debate about whether there's another push higher in the cards (S&P 1320) or if we've had that run already. Search me.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1610&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1610&state=present&height=600&width=600
I've got a handful of ideas for you, some of them new. Here's Ace, Ltd.
I've got a handful of ideas for you, some of them new. Here's Ace, Ltd.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1611&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1611&state=present&height=600&width=600
CEG looks like another H&S.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1613&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1613&state=present&height=600&width=600
I have no position in FNM, but this stock sure doesn't look done falling. Don't you think a disaster is going to happen here? Doesn't it seem like its fate is sealed, bailout or not? Just sayin'.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1614&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1614&state=present&height=600&width=600
I sold my POT put for a huge profit today, but only because it was an August put (my only one left) and I get very jumpy owning options in the same calendar month as they expire. If this strengthens back to 200 or so, I'll jump right in again.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1615&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1615&state=present&height=600&width=600
SGMS burned me just a little recently, but I'm still watching this pattern with great interest.
SGMS burned me just a little recently, but I'm still watching this pattern with great interest.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1616&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1616&state=present&height=600&width=600
The energy sector is stuffed with issues that have broken huge trendlines. I like RIG.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1617&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1617&state=present&height=600&width=600
Finally, here's another clip from Don Harrold. I feel a kinship with Don since (a) he gets really ticked off at B.S. (b) he gets paid $0.00 to reveal it to the world. Go, Don, go!
Posted: 06:36 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
八月 01, 2008 - 05:09 下午Is the Trap Set?This week might as well not have happened. In spite of four out of five days producing nearly or greater than 200 point changes on the Dow 30, the week basically ended flat. It was a huge amount of smoke and absolutely no fire.
However, this upcoming Monday is the day when a great many people whom I respect think the "big turn" is going to take place. Don't take my intrigued interest in their opinion as an endorsement. Maybe it'll happen, maybe it won't. Lord knows that watching the Russell today - - which, blast it, actually ended up in the green! - - was exasperating. But nothing aligns better with the future I foresee than the superb charts being produced these days by , one of which is shown here:
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1602
My stop on the Russell at 726.27 is set in stone. A violation of this would be both confusing and disappointing. Simply stated, next week needs to be down, and it needs to be down hard, in order to align with my hypothesis. It'll also make for a much more jovial Tim in Las Vegas.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1588&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1588&state=present&height=600&width=600
From the "beat a dead horse" category, I bring you again the $UTIL. This is one of the finest head and shoulders patterns I have ever witnessed. Assuming a neckline break, which is virtually a foregone conclusion, I have almost no doubt in my mind that the $UTIL will fall another 20% from the 15% it has already shed. I bought a ton of SDP today to back this point of view.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1590&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1590&state=present&height=600&width=600
I stand behind my notion that both energy and indexes are going to fall.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1591&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1591&state=present&height=600&width=600
I've got a large quantity of positions, almost all of them puts (the rest shorts). Here are a few favorites........
I've got a large quantity of positions, almost all of them puts (the rest shorts). Here are a few favorites........
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1592&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1592&state=present&height=600&width=600
MOS (and POT, for that matter) are taking a very long time to bake. It's like watching paint dry. But if and when the bear market in these issues comes, my puts will go up hundreds of percent.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1593&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1593&state=present&height=600&width=600
I have BAC on a very tight leash. It can't push past this week's highs, or else I'm out of there.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1594&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1594&state=present&height=600&width=600
I was pleased with CME's nearly 30 point drop today. I'm looking for this to head over 100 points lower from here.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1595&state=present&height=600&width=600
In spite of the recent strength in energy, I think there are plenty of opportunities to reload. I did so a couple of days ago, and JRCC did nicely today
In spite of the recent strength in energy, I think there are plenty of opportunities to reload. I did so a couple of days ago, and JRCC did nicely today.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1596&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1596&state=present&height=600&width=600
Praxair (PX) is a new position for me; I don't think I've ever traded this one before.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1597&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1597&state=present&height=600&width=600
I bought RIMM puts yesterday based on the fact it has retraced to the underside of its broken trendline.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1598&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1598&state=present&height=600&width=600
Steel companies are doing well for me, and SCHN is probably my favorite among them.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1599&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1599&state=present&height=600&width=600
WLT has a nice double top in place.
WLT has a nice double top in place.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1600&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1600&state=present&height=600&width=600
One of my straight short positions is BDX.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1601&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1601&state=present&height=600&width=600
With all these fine ideas, how about you good folks offer up a few of your best ideas of your own in the comments section? Pay a little back to me and your fellow readers, eh?
And I will close with this clip of Leonard Nimoy in the opening credits to a television show called Baffled! which - understandably - never saw the light of day.
Posted: 05:09 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
七月 31, 2008 - 02:51 下午The Shrinking EconomyThe government released its advance estimate of GDP in the 2nd quarter, and it came in rather light - - - plus unemployment seemed to bump up, thus causing the market to take a nice 200+ point tumble on the Dow today. What was interesting wasn't so much the estimated Q2 2008 figures, but the fact that the U.S. government revised the past several years - all downward! - since they somehow magically discovered their earlier pronouncements were too high. Indeed, Q4 2007 - which, let's face it, was some time ago - went from a positive number to a negative one. Thus, the commerce department actually managed to confess that the economy is indeed shrinking. Big freakin' surprise.
There seems to be a widely-held notion (particularly by the likes of Cramer) that energy and indexes are inversely related. In other words, if oil can only manage to go down, then it's going to be a party for equities. This simply isn't the case. Witness yesterday when energy went up and indexes went up too - - or today when they both went down. More broadly speaking, I am positioning my portfolio for a substantial drop in both energy and indexes. Cheapening oil is going to be a symptom of a weak economy..........not its salvation.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1574&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1574&state=present&height=600&width=600
The Russell, which is where my index puts are focused, wasn't as weak as the Dow today, but it did lost six tenths of a percent. I am setting my stop-loss very tight, at yesterday's high, since I don't want to get caught up in a surge just in case the S&P does indeed find its way up to 1325.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1575&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1575&state=present&height=600&width=600
Speaking of the S&P, it fell more than twice as much as the Russell. The boldface retracement you see here remains my "line in the sand" for this particular market.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1576&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1576&state=present&height=600&width=600
Now that July is behind us, I thought I'd take a look at the year to date performance of the big indexes so far. The Dow is a big loser, having fallen over 12.5%.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1577&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1577&state=present&height=600&width=600
The $NDX is down about 10%, having been breakeven back in late May.
The $NDX is down about 10%, having been breakeven back in late May.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1578&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1578&state=present&height=600&width=600
And the Russell is down merely 5%, having actually been positive in late May. Even on a percentage graph, you can plainly see the head and shoulders pattern I am playing (which spans May into part of June).
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1579&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1579&state=present&height=600&width=600
I remain cautiously bearish on banks, both commercial and investment. Wells Fargo is one example, although I have no position in it now.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1580&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1580&state=present&height=600&width=600
And Bank of America is another, in which I do have a big position, since it's a cleaner chart.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1581&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1581&state=present&height=600&width=600
First Solar's explosive earnings after the close yesterday propelled this stock twenty dollars higher earlier today; it ended up three - count 'em - three shiny pennies. This failure of a bullish breakout is encouraging for this put-holder.
First Solar's explosive earnings after the close yesterday propelled this stock twenty dollars higher earlier today; it ended up three - count 'em - three shiny pennies. This failure of a bullish breakout is encouraging for this put-holder.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1582&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1582&state=present&height=600&width=600
Late yesterday would have been a good time to re-enter some energy shorts. HES did a nice retracement.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1583&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1583&state=present&height=600&width=600
And OI sported a very impressive 12%+ tumble.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1584&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1584&state=present&height=600&width=600
I re-entered my Priceline position today as well; it could go a little higher, but the horizontal line you see below is my stop-loss, so the risk is pretty small.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1585&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1585&state=present&height=600&width=600
I tripped across some stills from a 1975 IBM Presentation. It's pretty awesome. If you want to check it out
Posted: 02:51 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
七月 30, 2008 - 05:37 下午Monday, Monday......The reason for the title of this post is that I've received a number of very thoughtful and cohesive arguments from readers postulating that Monday will be the end of the "c wave" we are in and will kick off the "wonder to behold" wave 3. In other words, folks think the market is going to keep fighting its way higher (and the past two days have been fairly brutal, let me tell you!) until sometime on Monday, at which time things are going to fall absolutely to pieces for our bull friends.
On the surface, the market looks terribly strong; I had thought mid-day we might enjoy a reversal, but it was not to be. The Dow closed at its highs for the day, causing havoc to bearish portfolios everywhere.
Looking at the Fibonaccis, however, is a little more encouraging. The retracement I've put in bold appears to be decent resistance. I will note that those calling for Monday as the reversal would surely put the Dow's target (and, thus, the DIA's) at a higher level than this. "S&P 500 to 1325" has become virtually a cliche lately.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1553&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1553&state=present&height=600&width=600
Crude oil's strength today held the Transports back so that they were actually in the red, in spite of the Dow's nearly 200 point jump (adding to yesterday's 250 point jump!)
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1554&state=present&height=600&width=600
I am somewhat chagrined to have written about DUG yesterday. I had a pretty big position in this - 2,000 shares - and early this morning I decided to sell it. Thank goodness, because I scored a very healthy profit, and by day's end it was actually a loss. I consider the red line I've drawn to be important support; if we seem to ease around the $32 level, I'll probably re-enter. You have to be nimble in a market like this, and when I saw this morning that we were not making new highs this month, I wasn't confident enough to hang on. My intuition was right this time.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1552&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1552&state=present&height=600&width=600
Looking at the EUR/USD, we're at an important decision point - - the price is right on the fan line, yet it is also positioned for a potential breakout (see red horizontal line). My money is on the fan line being broken, which would naturally result in a drop in energy (and, thus, a rise in DUG).
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1555&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1555&state=present&height=600&width=600
Another arrow in my "energy bear" quiver is the USO, which is approaching the underbelly of its broken fan line.
Another arrow in my "energy bear" quiver is the USO, which is approaching the underbelly of its broken fan line.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1556&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1556&state=present&height=600&width=600
As for OIH, can you see the three high prices around $212.50 in late June and eaerly July? I don't think those are going to be breached. That's my stop-loss level.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1558&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1558&state=present&height=600&width=600
I bought puts on the $NDX (which were actually in the green during the middle part of today, in spite of the Dow's strength.......) and the $COMPQ seems to be bumping its head up against its lower channel line. Naturally my stop price on my index puts is set to the highs set on July 23rd.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1557&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1557&state=present&height=600&width=600
As for my best friend the Russell, this is by far my largest put position, and my stop is set to 726.27 (if memory serves). If we begin to seriously fall within the coming week, this could turn out to be a once-in-a-decade opportunity to be short this index. A push above May's highs would completely wreck that prospect.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1559&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1559&state=present&height=600&width=600
Now, in no particular order, a few favorite shorts of mine. Although I won't comment on these individually, I will point out that I am ga-ga excited over Bank of America. Just take a look at those retracement levels, particularly the one I've boldfaced.
Now, in no particular order, a few favorite shorts of mine. Although I won't comment on these individually, I will point out that I am ga-ga excited over Bank of America. Just take a look at those retracement levels, particularly the one I've boldfaced.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1560&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1560&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1561&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1563&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1564&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1565&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1566&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1567&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1568&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1569&state=present&height=600&width=600
Tomorrow morning's GDP report (8:30 a.m. EST) is going to be vitally important. That will probably dictate whether "the fall" begins Thursday or if we're going to have to stomach a push higher (much the same can be said of Friday morning's unemployment figures). The past two days have been no fun at all, but I think relief is coming soon.
Posted: 05:37 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
七月 29, 2008 - 02:02 下午Financial SurgeThe big news today was the strength in financials. Across the board, banks and related firms powered higher. Personally, I got out of my RKH, JPM, WFC, BAC puts (and a host of others) as well as my SKF position early this morning. All these positions were profitable, with the exception of WFC, although obviously they were more profitable at yesterday's close. Just for the heck of it, I drew a Fib retracement on MER (who wrote down billions of dollars after yesterday's close) from its lowest point in 1974 (!) to the peak in 2007, and the levels line up remarkably well with the support/resistance of the price points. Let me repeat - - this retracement was based on a price 34 years ago! I think that is simply remarkable. (exact span: 9/16/1974 to 1/18/2007).
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1538&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1538&state=present&height=600&width=600
Another thing powering the equities was continued weakness in energy. Remember how just a month ago everyone was running around screaming about $200/bbl oil? This market sure has gotten squishy fast. You can imagine all the poor souls who thought they'd be crude oil bulls in the futures markets; I'm sure a lot of newcomers got their heads handed to them. I continue to believe we could be in for another leg down on the OIH to about 165-170.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1539&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1539&state=present&height=600&width=600
Looking at the intraday graph over the past 120 days, it's challenging to interpret what today's strength means. For the $INDU, I've
One of the reasons for my skittishness about indexes is how a number of major indexes or ETFs touched their retracement levels today. The DIA is a superb example - - even moreso since last week it did a beautiful job touching its (smaller) retracement, shown below in red.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1526&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1526&state=present&height=600&width=600
Energy has been sort of pausing at its fan line, but frankly I'm expecting a break down. The OIH could head to the 165-170 range given that prospect.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1527&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1527&state=present&height=600&width=600
Of all the indexes, the one I find easiest to interpret and trade these days is the Russell. We are smack dab in the middle of retracement levels right now, which I always find to be an unhappy spot. I am far too uncomfortable with the general trend of the market to be buying calls, so I'm either going to be long puts or out of the position altogether. You can plainly see that, should we eventually crack the 645 level, we've got a ginormous head and shoulders pattern on our hands.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1528&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1528&state=present&height=600&width=600
Looking closer, you can see we're precisely in between the retracements. There's a skosh of support in the 695 area. It would take something pretty nasty to provide the strength (errr, weakness) to get $RUT to break that lower level. We shall see.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1529&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1529&state=present&height=600&width=600
The S&P 100 also approached its retracement level today, almost perfectly touching it. I keep getting the feel that, barring shocking news, the selling pressure is really going to abate. But I am not convinced enough of that prospect to close out positions; it's simply too likely I will leave profits on the table. I'd rather align myself with the broad trend, which I have almost no doubt is firmly in place.
The S&P 100 also approached its retracement level today, almost perfectly touching it. I keep getting the feel that, barring shocking news, the selling pressure is really going to abate. But I am not convinced enough of that prospect to close out positions; it's simply too likely I will leave profits on the table. I'd rather align myself with the broad trend, which I have almost no doubt is firmly in place.
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My chart of the S&P 500 doesn't reveal any rock-solid answers either. We are diddling around the ~1260 retracement. I have seen 1170 cited in so many places as the obvious support zone, it makes me wonder what the market is going to do to prove us all wrong! It just seems too easy an answer.
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I want to make one last comment on contingent stop orders. A fair number of people have written me about putting stops on their options positions - - that is, the option instrument itself. In my opinion, that is really the wrong way to go. Options are far too thinly traded, their spreads too wide, and their trading too volatile, to justify such an action.
I think by far the better choice is to have a contingent stop. For those who don't know about this, it simply means that if the underlying instrument does something or another, then your option order goes through. Let's say you have puts on AAPL, but your hypothesis will be broken if AAPL crosses above, let's say, $190. A contingent stop would simply assert that, should AAPL cross above $190, an immediate order will be created to sell your options position at the market (you could use a limit order, but I think that too would be foolhardy).
If you use stops - and I hope you do - I cannot recommend strongly enough making use of contingent stops as opposed to the "normal" stop orders. I am pretty sure most brokers offer this, but if yours doesn't, that probably is reason enough to change your firm.
I think I'm going to hang up my keyboard for the day; thanks for stopping by, and many thanks for the marvelous comments section and all the fantastic contributors there!
Posted: 03:59 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
七月 24, 2008 - 11:43 下午Real Life Bear EncounterIt's nearly midnight as I am typing this. A few minutes ago, I encountered a wild bear.
Nope, I'm not making this up. Let me explain. As regular readers know, I am at Fallen Leaf Lake near Tahoe. Tonight I decided to do some star-gazing, since everything is so clear here - - you can easily see the Milky Way, and Jupiter is almost painfully bright. So I went out on the boat dock, did the star thing, and started heading back to the lodge.
A couple of guys were staring at something, and since I'm the curious sort, I hunched down to see what they were looking at. It was a brown bear, probably about five feet long, staring back at us, maybe fifteen feet away. Even though I heard a story yesterday about a woman whose arms were both taken off by a bear (in Alaska, not around here), I didn't feel nervous. We made some noise, and he galoomphed away. He was really very beautiful, and I was glad to have seen him. Although the thought did occur to me how ironic it would be if I was maimed or killed by a bear, of all things. I think he could sense I was a kindred spirit, so he left us unharmed. Had I been Abby Joseph Cohen, he surely would have attacked, in spite of the smell.
I had compiled a ton of charts tonight, but my connection is rather slow, so I'm actually going to make this quick. I had a very, very good day today. I'm not sure if it was my best percentage gain ever, but it was awfully close. I was blown away how well things went. Even though energy has slowed its descent, my energy puts did terrific, and I'm still wondering if OIH is going to break beneath its fan line to start the next act of this play.
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I am extremely short banks, and I find the huge rally provided by the bulls a few days ago to be a tremendous blessing. It made things cheap for bears.
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In all the tumult, there are a couple of ways to play it - - either play the bullish side by taking advantage of battered prices, or play the bearish side by taking advantage of pullbacks. CAL is an example of the latter, since I shorted it after it rebounded hundreds of percent in just days.
In all the tumult, there are a couple of ways to play it - - either play the bullish side by taking advantage of battered prices, or play the bearish side by taking advantage of pullbacks. CAL is an example of the latter, since I shorted it after it rebounded hundreds of percent in just days.
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Whereas CROX was the opposite. I bought a bunch of this when it was at about $7.50, and I sold it all at about $9 a couple of days later. Thank goodness I made this an opportunistic trade, because the opening bid should be around $5 or so tomorrow. That was one close call.
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I have puts on RKH, which, in addition to my puts on stuff like LEH, WFC, and BAC, is a great way to play the "cascade" we're witnessing.
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I'll belabor my $UTIL short again, but at least this time I'll post a target, which I've tinted below. If we break the neckline, my target is about 370-380.
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I am still long DUG, and this has been a fantastic trade. I started accumulating this when it was in the high 20s, and let's face it, this is a very bullish looking formation, particularly with the volume surge.
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I'm going to leave the mountain of charts I had pulled for you unused. I'm going to bed now, hopefully avoiding any nasty dreams about bear attacks. Since he just headed off in a different direction, I'll remember him as cute instead of fearsome. Kinda like another bear you know! G'nite.........
Posted: 11:43 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
七月 23, 2008 - 07:30 下午The RescueI have to say, I'm both disappointed and angry. The gigantic bailout that the Federal Government is shoving through the system creates a series of winners and losers. Specifically:
Winners
[*]The CEOs and other executives of FNM and FRE, all of whom pull down seven-figure and eight-figure salaries and have pulled one of the great corporate heists in business history[*]The lower-middle class blockheads that gobbled up real estate at sky-high prices, thinking they would be the next Donald Trump, who are going to simply walk away from their "investments"[*]The shareholders of FNM and FRE, who have been spared a $0 stockLosers
[*]All the citizens of the United States, particularly those who pay taxes[*]Honest, hardworking people that got mortgages through honest means, pay their payment promptly each month, and have received no help or favors from anyone (I am pointing not-so-subtly at myself right now.....)So the honest and hardworking folks are the fools. And the charlatans and crooks are the winners. And the entire country slips that much closer into oblivion with this travesty.
Gee, Tim, how do you really feel about this?
I have some s'mores to make, so this will be short (as a side note, no one makes s'mores like me - - - I am a zealot about the marshmallow being just right; God help you if you are with me and your marshmallow goes up in flames; that means instant death). Below is a great which screams "more drops to follow"; don't you think people figured the worst was over at each one of those tinted areas?
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The indexes might have a little more upside left - - in the coming weeks, maybe an S&P as high as 1325 or so - - but at the moment, the DIA is up to its 32.6%.
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The $UTIL is on a fast track to a massive H&S pattern. Amazing.
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My energy puts had a dynamite day. OIH is pushing that fan line. Could it crack to the next level below?
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I have been buying puts on brokerages and banks. I hope this graph helps explain why.
I have been buying puts on brokerages and banks. I hope this graph helps explain why.
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The Russell hit its Fib perfectly today. I lost about 10k on $RUT puts early in the day, but I re-entered the position at almost exactly the top, and those are in the green now. Not enough to compensate for the loss, but hey, the trade is only a few hours old!
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USO has cracked its fan line; the energy market has really fallen to pieces quickly, as I had hoped.
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I'm off to the campfire. I'll be looking at more charts tonight. If I see anything interesting, I'll post it in the morning. Adios!
Posted: 07:30 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink