三月 12, 2009 - 09:53 上午More on that ES Longhttp://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3800
Posted: 09:53 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 12, 2009 - 09:09 上午How Could You Both Be Right?As most of you know, two financial bloggers - - Atilla and myself - - are on opposite sides of the /ES trade right now. He is short, and I am long.
Now, as is also known, my tenancity with my longs pales to Atilla's tenacity on his shorts. He sometimes has made moves early, but even if the market moves hard against him, he usually holds on to the bitter end at a great profit. So this /ES short could move against him, but if history is any guide, he will direct the appropriate middle digit at the market, short some more, and come out a winner in the end.
But the basis for my long position is a simple one. Take a look at the $SPX with me:
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3795
Now check this out...........the high was 943.85 on January 6th. The neckline was 804.30. The classic targeted move would be to subtract the spread (139.55) from the neckline, yielding a target of 664.75.
How low did the S&P go? 666.79. How about that! I would call that marvelously on-target.
Having fulfilled this target, the S&P is clawing its way higher. This could be a beautiful trade (setting aside the fact I purchased this at 672 and got stopped out; cough cough; but we shan't go there).
The exciting part for me is that, if it does manage to get within spitting distance of 800, it will represent the kind of shorting opportunity that make grown bears weep with delight. I will cheerfully join Atilla in his trade if and when that time comes. If the market simply plunges from here, well, I'm wrong then. We shall see. But I think there's an opportunity for us both to be right in the end.
Posted: 09:09 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 12, 2009 - 07:50 上午Going Long the /ESI have bought the June /ES (please note we have rolled over to /ESM9 now) and hope to ride it almost to 800.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3794
Posted: 07:50 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 11, 2009 - 11:29 上午Cover ExampleI wanted to provide an example of a successful short which I closed this morning.and it fell nearly 70% in a very short amount of time. I closed this position because (a) it had reached meaningful support (b) let's face it, for a short-sale, a nearly 70% plunge is about as good as it gets! The risk/reward simply demands closure.
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Posted: 11:29 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 11, 2009 - 10:33 上午CHTT DeathI feel lame saying how busy I am every blessed day, but I am, and it's only going to get worse. I sort of wonder if Slope is even going to be around in a year, since it requires so much care and feeding!
Anyway, here's another stock I shorted today. I actually have a lot more long opportunities waiting in the wings, but I'm a little uncomfortable at the moment given the big run-up yesterday.
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Posted: 10:33 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 11, 2009 - 09:42 上午Shorted NQ @ 1121Hey, it's not ES this time! How about that! I love this pattern. Stop price: 1137.
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Posted: 09:42 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 11, 2009 - 08:27 上午SRS Attractive AgainSRS has fallen so fast and furious, it is at a level I find attractive again. I bought some in the 60s.
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Posted: 08:27 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 11, 2009 - 03:24 上午Levels of ResistanceWell, I shouldn't be up at this ungodly hour, but I wanted to be better-prepared for the morning. The /ES and /NQ both continue to surge; I think the /ES is at a modest level of resistance at current levels (but I emphasize the word modest); the 23.6% retracement is at 731.12).
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Serious, serious resistance kicks in at 800.
Posted: 03:24 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 10, 2009 - 04:17 下午How High Could We Go?Today's rally was very impressive in percentage terms. How much higher could we go from here?
I have barely done any general market analysis yet, but one thing I will say is that, judging from the Russell 2000 chart, getting another 15% before severe resistance seems quite plausible.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3788
This is certainly not a projection, and the time scale isn't meant to be accurate. My point is simply that, given the almost non-stop plunge that took place over the past three weeks, there is ample room for upside with very little resistance until we get back to, oh, about 800 on the S&P and just under 8,000 on the Dow.
I am presently short the /ES and will happily cover if we get anywhere close to 700. I would be very happy to be a buyer at lower prices, since I think today's push higher will do a lot to get some much-needed confidence out there.
Posted: 04:17 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 10, 2009 - 03:44 下午Change We Can Believe Inhttp://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3786
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Posted: 03:44 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 10, 2009 - 01:33 下午Seething Over Stop-OutOK, OK, I am obsessing, I know. But I've just got to get this off my chest. Again.
As my post early today stated,I bought 28 /ES at an average price of $674. I stupidly set my stop too tight and - - with what I am convinced was a deliberate "run" by a market maker - - got blown out with a meager $1,000 profit. By the end of trading day, those same 28 contracts had a profit of $58,800.
Piss. Me. Off.
Now, as traders every day - - every hour! - - is filled with "coulda beens." But this one really stings. One thing is for sure - - I'm not going to have stops set too tightly again on the /ES, particularly during after-hours! Because there is real truth to what I've heard about the scoundrels out there. Here's a graph below showing what an insignificant "blip" the take-down was in the grand scheme of things.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3785
Now one might rightly ask........why didn't you simply re-enter the position? In retrospect, this is obviously a sensible question. Last night, though, I felt it would be "chasing" the trade to re-enter it. The entry point I had was a good one, and it isn't wise to jump back into trades just for the sake of getting back in (at a higher price), because that often compounds the error.
Anyway - - the irony is that it was actually a good day for me all around. But my profits would have been double but for this one simple mistake. Shame on me!
Posted: 01:33 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 10, 2009 - 09:42 上午Taking SOME Gold ProfitsI am trimming some gold positions, but leaving most intact. Gold's drop has been largely driven by equity's recent rise. Some of my profits over the past week are over 10%, and I am going to clear some of these off the table to re-enter later. Again, my belief that gold is heading down to the low 700s/very high 600s is still intact.
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Posted: 09:42 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 10, 2009 - 08:52 上午Taiwan's EWTI'm very busy this morning. My portfolios are doing super (my screw-up with /ES last night notwithstanding......grrr.........) so I need to - - you guessed it - - examine stops and, where necessary, tighten them. So I'm going to be pretty quiet today.
I will say that one of my bigger holdings, EWT, is a favorite of mine. It is based on the Taiwan equity market, and I think it's got a fantastic future in the months ahead. Here's the important point - - even if we plunge again with a final wave 5, I don't think EWT will make new lows. This thing has been really resilient. I'm holding on to it, even if we do take another tumble.
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Posted: 08:52 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 10, 2009 - 06:42 上午The Price of an Overly Tight StopYesterday morning, I was really pleased at the ease and profitability of my overnight short position.
This morning, I would have been pleased at the ease and profitability of my overnight long position, had it not been for a simple, stupid mistake on my part. To explain.........
As I've pointed out, over the past few days we seem to be bouncing between about 670 and 690 on the /ES. Late yesterday, as the /ES was hovering around 672, I bought 10 contracts (indicated by the arrow). It inched a little higher, so I bought 10 more. It inched higher still, and I bought 8 more. So I was long 28 /ES in a market that was, 0.25 by 0.25, creeping higher.
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Once it got to 680, the position was up about $5,000, and I started to wonder how successful the market would be in pushing through all the cruft in the 680-690 range. My stop had originally been set to 671.75, but I tightened it up to 676.75. At the time, my reasoning for this was (a) the market was slowly creeping higher, so a sudden move was unlikely (b) I wanted to protect my profits.
There was a fatal flaw in this decision, though, and it was this: there was no technical basis for changing the stop. The "support" at the 677 level was barely a few ticks! If the market had been trading there for two hours, sure, there might be a good reason. But the stop price was practically arbitrary. The only appropriate stop was the one I had already set, at 671.75, which was below a meaningful low.
Well, you already know what happened (see the tinted area above). The /ES swiftly made a quick dip, blew me out of the position for a minuscule profit, and then flipped around and resumed course. As of this writing, the /ES was up 13 points. The bottom line is that I made $1,000 on a position which, were it not for my error, would have yielded about $18,000 in profits.
Stops are not just important in my trading - - they are an absolute requirement. But "protecting" your profits with an unnecessarily tight stop can sometimes have the opposite effect of blowing up profits that are apt to materialize.
Posted: 06:42 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 09, 2009 - 01:09 下午Diamond Bottom?It was a pretty "clean" day for /ES trading. In spite of the chop, it's quite evident that, recently, we've been range-bound between 670 and 700 (plus or minutes a few points). This makes for some relatively low risk/high reward trades. At this immediate moment, I'm long 10 /ES with a stop below 670.
It occured to me we may be looking at a diamond-bottom on the /ES on a short-term time scale. This might give us the firepower to make a lunge higher out of this range.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3779
Posted: 01:09 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 09, 2009 - 11:25 上午A Bit More About GoldEarlier today, when I posted about how great my gold shorts were what my technical reasons were. I hurriedly said I didn't have time.
Some people might have interpreted this as meaning (a) I didn't have good technical reasons; or (b) I had no idea what I was doing. If nothing else, I didn't mean to be rude about it; I honestly didn't have the time.
I will say, however, that looking at these charts of gold (the commodity itself) and $HUI, I am very comfortable with my bearish position. I've reconsidered how low gold might go; it might only get to the low- to mid-700s; the high 600s is a bit more of a stretch.
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The main point I want to make is that, although I'm a pure technician, I'm a terribly simple-minded one. My methods are very elementary. I just try to use them very, very well. So don't mistake the lack of fifty indicators as a lack of knowledge. I simply think the vast majority of technicians confuse complexity with competence.
Posted: 11:25 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 09, 2009 - 09:13 上午GoldfingerI have been jumping-up-and-down bearish about gold since last week. These positions are doing extremely well and constitute virtually 100% of my profits today. I am delighted, and I think gold has a long, long way to go down. I've received a fair bit of "are you kidding?!?!?" emails from gold bugs (and Gary), but I'm stalwart in this position. Gold's going back to the 600s.
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Posted: 09:13 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 09, 2009 - 06:49 上午A Perfect EveningLast night couldn't have gone better. As I mentioned on Sunday, the 30-point spike on the /ES was simply too tempting to pass up, so I shorted 40 contracts. When I ambled over to the computer screen this morning to see how things were going, it had fallen exactly as I had hoped (that is, a meaningful amount, but not piercing Friday's lows). I got out of the position, and I am watching /ES to see if this mutates into a good long position. I've tinted the "ride" I took on the /ES below.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3774
While I have your attention, I have a question I've been meaning to ask the group............regarding the /ES, "are there any others like you at home?"
What I mean by that is this: I only "discovered" trading the /ES back in October. That's only five months ago, but I feel like I've been trading it my whole life. Although I completely screwed up at the beginning, racking up six figures in losses in no time, I got my bearings and, since then, it has been the backbone of my profits and my trading.
Obviously I knew about the /ES before then, since it's a popular and widely-discussed instrument. But I let my fear of "futures" keep me from exploring it more deeply, and how I wish I had known how to trade this before I wasted so much time and money trading things like Russell and S&P index options! (whose spread still shocks me).
So naturally I am wondering, what else am I missing? What other highly-liquid, highly-profitable trading vehicles are out there whose boat I am simply letting sail by? I really blew it not getting into /ES earlier, and I'd love to hear other general ideas out there, if there are any.
Posted: 06:49 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 08, 2009 - 06:51 下午Shorting the 30 Point SpikeI've been running around with my family all day. I'm short the /ES based on the fact that the 30 point spike we witnessed in a very short amount of time seems - - well - - really shortable. I personally don't think this is going to break Friday's lows; I probably will close on any meaningful softness and not hold out for the Big Kahuna.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3773
As the arrows indicate, recent surges upward have been nothing more than new shorting opportunities.
Posted: 06:51 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 08, 2009 - 10:21 上午Falling BackI'm not sure how many "old timers" are still on Slope. By "old Timers" I mean those reading me two or more years ago (I started writing this thing four years ago, incredibly; you can see my first post from March 29, 2005 But for newcomers, let me explain how different things used to be before the bear market took the world by storm.
Mine was a very lonely position. I would come here, day in and day out, thumping the Bible and saying how the end was near. And, man, did I get it. An entire array of nasty folks would show up to chastise me and tell me how wrong I was. There were others who were civil - like Gary Savage - but would still gently try to turn me from the error of my ways. I only had a handful of supporters (like Leisa, whom I haven't seen around here in ages, and 2sweeties, in his pre-RL days).
The reason I was so nostalgic this morning was because, in small ways, I'm starting to feel like the "outsider" again, as I'm starting to offer up bullish ideas. I'm certainly not encountering the same kind of bile I got in the "before-time", but I'm definitely starting to feel like the misguided contarian again. Perhaps this is my comfort zone.
So I decided to reflect on the "false breaks" in the market. The first false break was in late February 2007, when the Chinese market briefly fell. I remember how excited I was that the bears' time had finally come. I hadn't, in turns out. The next break was in July 2007. I remember very clearly how, yet again, I was thrilled the bullish nightmare was over. That joy lasted a month, and then ended. So by the time October 11, 2007 rolled around, it was getting very hard to say the top was finally in.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3771
During the July break, I In it I mentioned several short ideas, including:
AKAM @ 51 (now 16)
ALB @ 42 (now 16)
CROX @ 46 (now 1)
DST @ 82 (now 26)
JCP @ 74 (now 14)
I find the CROX one particularly funny since I had puts on it and it went on to lose 98% of its value.
三月 06, 2009 - 05:29 下午Real EstateIt's starting to dawn on me that I'm not a permabear. I'm a permacontrarian.
Now, I know everyone calls themselves a contrarian, but that is, by definition, impossible. I suppose I have a fondness for being different.
Having said that, and having gone through about 500 charts just now, I've plucked out 36 promising looking buys. A number of them are in real estate. Here are a few.
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As with all my other longs, the stops on these aren't far enough away to make them especially dangerous.
Posted: 05:29 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 06, 2009 - 01:15 下午Freaky FridayWell, that was a weird day.
We started off higher, based on relief about the jobs report being only terrible and not horrific. Then the rally faded instantly, and we spend the entire day easing down a skosh at a time. Just when it looked like the bottom would fall out, the PPT showed up and reversed the market in an explosive countertrend rally.
Sheesh.
What I've been trying to position myself for is the big countertrend rally that is bound to take place Real Soon Now (note sarcastic tone). I don't want to be caught with a ton of shorts when something like this happens:
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3764
The above image, by the way, is what equities did after a ferocious bear market about 40 years ago. You can see how swift and merciless the bulls were in the other direction!
Well, it's been a long week, and in the end, I don't think I made (or lost) a dime! This is one of those weeks where there is a ton of smoke, and zero fire. So I'm going to walk away from the blog until the morning. Thanks for stopping by, and I hope you had a more fruitful week than me!
Posted: 01:15 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 06, 2009 - 10:24 上午Shorting the Bejesus Out of Gold
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Posted: 10:24 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 06, 2009 - 05:48 上午Jobs Report No DisasterWell, the jobs report wasn't the disaster some bears were hoping for, and the /ES went from 678 during nighttime trading to about 690 as I'm typing this. Although the unemployment rate continues to soar, the numbers were roughly in line with expectations, and the /ES instantly shook off the possibility of a jobs-created Friday plunge.
I was going through very long-term charts last night (as I am wont to do when I am feeling uncertain about the market's broad direction), and it convinced me even more strongly that choice "A" from was more likely than "B". I also find a small error in my $TRAN chart; I had anchored the fan line to the point below where the left arrow is pointing, when in fact it should have been updated to the higher level on the right arrow. Having made this change, yesterday's low of the $TRAN tags the lower fan line marvelously (circled).
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3756
Since the market has moved a lot recently, I'll be updating stops (sigh, again.......) this morning. Best of luck to you!
Posted: 05:48 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 05, 2009 - 05:20 下午Two PossibilitiesPhew, OK, things will be relatively normal now. Sorry to be so "out of pocket" lately.
I think there are two possibilities before us in the coming weeks, shown below. As you can read in I'm more inclined toward "A", on the left (one more small rally before the final plunge), but "B" is still possible. It's pretty clear the jobs report tomorrow will dictate which it is.
I have made some of my best money lately while I'm in bed (it's sort of like being a really well paid gigolo, I suppose, except that I'm snoring at the time). Overnight /ES trades have done well for me, and I have definitely positioned myself for a "just in case" by shorting 40 /ES at 687.50 with a stop above 691.25. At the moment I'm typing this, it's at 684. If we fall hard overnight, and/or the jobs report blows up the market tomorrow, I'd like some protection considering all the big ETF positions I took on near Thursday's close.
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Posted: 05:20 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 05, 2009 - 12:30 下午I Am Buying These ETFs Now
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Posted: 12:30 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 04, 2009 - 10:15 下午Sleepy TradeI'm short the /ES for a quick overnight trade; I've got a tight stop on this above 705.
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Please note I'll be tied up in a meeting all morning so posts will be infrequent (or non-existent).
Posted: 10:15 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 04, 2009 - 12:23 下午Long Ideas (4 of 4)
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Posted: 12:23 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 04, 2009 - 11:57 上午Long Ideas (3 of 4)
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Posted: 11:57 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 04, 2009 - 11:35 上午Energy Seems a Little VulnerableI loved..........loved..........the pop in OIH and USO this morning. I got out for fantastic overnight profits (although a little bit too early; all the same, the profits were worth an overnight wait). At this point I don't have any big energy positions, since I think the pop this morning pretty much took care of most of the short-term opportunity.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3745
Posted: 11:35 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 04, 2009 - 11:02 上午Long Ideas (2 of 4)
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3728&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3729&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3729&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3730&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3731&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3731&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=3732&state=present&height=600&width=600
Posted: 11:02 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink