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发表于 2009-3-28 14:26
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三月 26, 2009 - 08:34 上午Suntech PowerThe most fervent hope I have for myself as a trader is to one day be as good a bull as I am a bear. On a scale of 1 to 10, I'd give myself an 8 as a bear (I shave off 2 points for getting out too soon), but a 3 as a bull (and I'm probably being terribly generous).
One challenge I have is expressed in the chart below; here is STP, which I own........
This stock is up 100% from where I bought it. Now, for a short, that is the theoretical limit, but a long could obviously go up more than 100%. The challenge for me is that, as a person reliant on stops, the stop on a chart like this is so far away it would constitute most of the profits. And second, my bearish tendencies let me see things go down easier than up. I guess in the case of STP, I could probably convince myself to hold as high as 30, where serious resistance exists.
Posted: 08:34 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 26, 2009 - 07:45 上午The Great Barrier ReefLet me introduce you to my best friend right now:

Although the bulls have a government on their side which is willing to sacrifice the future of the country for some very short-term gains, there is something the bears have on their side as well: an astonishing amount of overhead supply.
The market put on its rocket boosters from 666 to 825 because there was very little standing in its way. The fall from 825 to 666 was swift and virtually uninterrupted. The market, being a two-edged sword, had little trouble moving the other way (a few trillion dollars in freshly-minted currency helped, too).
The point is that, even if sometime this year we do keep pushing our way higher, it's going to be quite a slog. The chart doesn't require interpretation - - - the cold fact of the matter is that from 825 to 1025 there is a giant slime pit of overhead supply that is going to make every point higher a struggle.
Posted: 07:45 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 26, 2009 - 07:40 上午About Those Lottery PicksI'm going to kick off the day talking about the one account which has been thriving, and that's my IRA (which was also my best percentage-gainer last year). Regular readers know this is my least flexible account - - no margin, no shorting, no options, no futures. Just cash-only longs are permitted.
In spite of that, it has done, and continues to do, well. My strategy on this one is consistent - - - a multitude of small positions in battered, cheaply-priced stocks that seem to have made a base. LVLT, up 20% in pre-market this morning, is a good example:
You can look at first watch list "Long Stocks (High Risk") to see all my holdings there. I prefer adding positions when the market is really soft, but I'll be scouting around for more picks like these, since I think, percentage-wise, this portfolio has the best prospects for gains in the coming months.
Posted: 07:40 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 25, 2009 - 08:36 下午Back in BlackOK, this blog is getting too emotional. I need to drink more sake, I guess. Perhaps during the entire trading day.
Well, I've finished my merciless sweep of commenters, and I've banned................zero. I'm too committed to free speech to hack away wildly. If anyone is over-the-top, I'll nuke 'em. But, hell, even piggy said he didn't meant any harm, so he's alive and well.
The past five or six trading days have been, for the most part, horribly disorienting. It really takes the joy out of trading. But the market does what the market does, and we have to adapt. I've been buying TWM lately, trying to take advantage of what I think will be a dip in my old friend the Russell 2000 (which used to get mentioned as frequently as the /ES does now)

I think I am so shellshocked from the past week that almost nothing will freak me out tomorrow. 35-point one-hour tears on the /ES notwithstanding, I think I'm jaded enough at the moment to tolerate just about anything.
I enjoyed my 120-minute hiatus from comments. I'm back now. See you in the morning. I'll have my steel codpiece on.
Posted: 08:36 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink |
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