一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-28 12:11

七月 22, 2008 - 08:12 上午Energy: Good......Indexes: BadI'm having a very good morning so far, but no thanks at all to my index puts. Even though my $RUT and $SPX puts did wonderfully at the start of the day (thanks to a ton of bombshell earnings yesterday), the new market theme indeed seems to be Earnings Could Be Even Worse, So Buy! So if you're a bank that lost $10 billion, but you might have lost $12 billion, investors are gobbling you up.
I've been "weeding" my charts for any underperformers or those that seem to have fulfilled their destiny. I am pretty floored by the strength in indexes, particularly $RUT, but I guess the bounceback still has some life in it.

Original

Present

Posted: 08:12 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

七月 17, 2008 - 04:36 下午Earnings GaloreWell, this is the day we've all been waiting for - - and what terrific results were offered after hours! There are an avalanche of earnings out there - - IBM, Merrill Lynch, Microsoft - - the list is very long, and the vast majority of stocks I follow were either (a) getting hit; or (b) getting destroyed. I was watching Google most carefully after the close, which had closed around 533. I was watching the bid/ask like a hawk. For a moment I saw a bid of 550, but maybe some joker thought it was funny, because a moment later the bids below $500 starting falling in. As of this writing, the bid/ask for GOOG is around $490, which is indicated below with the purple tinted area. It will be interesting to see if we "fill the gap" (marked in green tint) any time soon, given this smack-down.

Original

Present

So yesterday the Dow was up about 270, and today it was up over 200 again. Fantastic! I love it! It has provided me so many wonderful shorting opportunities. In fact, at this point, I have 100 positions. There are simply so many fantastic stocks out there. My energy shorts have been doing sensationally well, and I loaded up on some issues today that had been hoisted higher by the huge two-day rally in the financials.

Original

Present

I took some more energy profits off the table today, since I think some of the selling has finished for a little while. But don't get me wrong - - I still have a huge quantity of bearish energy positions. I just got out of simple stuff, like OIH. Here is the Dow Jones index on which DUG is based:

Original

Present

Mentioning the $UTIL is getting to be a daily habit, but I just love this pattern. If the neckline is broken, I think we're heading for the purple zone below

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-28 12:12

Mentioning the $UTIL is getting to be a daily habit, but I just love this pattern. If the neckline is broken, I think we're heading for the purple zone below.

Original

Present

I have amassed two very large positions on the $RUT (puts) based on the robust retracement to the retracement line you see below. This is the IWM (obviously).

Original

Present

I was also pleased to see the NASDAQ push its way back to almost precisely the underbelly of the fan line.

Original

Present

I mentioned closing my OIH puts at excellent profits. You can plainly see why here.

Original

Present

I mentioned 1270 being an important level of resistance for the S&P today. It got close enough to this line today for my satisfaction.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-28 12:13

mentioned 1270 being an important level of resistance for the S&P today. It got close enough to this line today for my satisfaction.

Original

Present

As for DUG, set aside your knowledge that this is based on energy. Just pretend the chart below is a regular company stock. Don't you think this looks terribly bullish? Look at the surge in volume and the wonderful trendline breakout. Isn't this a gorgeous graph? That's why I own a ton of this (remember, I put 100% of my IRA into this thing when it was about $29, and the gains have been handsome in the short amount of time since then).

Original

Present

Fashion provider to the younger set ANF has a sensational topping pattern. I have taken advantage of the retracement by buying puts.

Original

Present

XEC has great profits, but I'm hanging on for more.

Original

Present

CRK is one of the many momentum-driven "hockey stick" graphs whose puts I bought a week or so ago. Again, fantastic profits, but I am holding out for more.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-28 12:13

CRK is one of the many momentum-driven "hockey stick" graphs whose puts I bought a week or so ago. Again, fantastic profits, but I am holding out for more.

Original

Present

I bought puts on BTU yesterday based on its failed bullish breakout. This is a favorite technique of mine.

Original

Present

POT was finally smoked today, as was MOS. I think there is still plenty of downside here.

Original

Present

I re-entered my SOHU short (which I had closed a couple of days ago) since the retracement finished. The neckline isn't as clean as I'd like, but I'm willing to take a chance.

Original

Present

I've got a straight equity short on HK with marvelous results. What will be hard for me - - VERY hard - - is to know the right time to exit plays like this.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-28 12:14

I've got a straight equity short on HK with marvelous results. What will be hard for me - - VERY hard - - is to know the right time to exit plays like this.

Original

Present

It was mentioned in the comments how instructive Friday's action will be, and I agree. If we somehow end with a positive market on the day, that will be a very, very bullish sign, because these earnings are very plainly disappointing. On the other hand, if the market gets smacked down hard, maybe we're in a new era of having to face the reality of weak earnings, which will thus push down valuations farther. We'll know soon! Good luck, stay humble, and stay nimble.

Posted: 04:36 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

七月 17, 2008 - 06:29 上午She Has Yellow TeethWell, besides having a government that the world doesn't respect very much, now we have something else in common with Pakistan - - - - the need for the government to outlaw short-selling in order to protect the whiny, childish, needful bulls. Allow me to point it out on the front page today:

Now just think about this for a minute. Can you imagine a creation of a downtick rule which demands that a person can't buy a stock unless it moves down in price? Or can you imagine the government forbidding going long a momentum stock, simply because it just seems to keep going higher and higher?
Of course you can't. And the reason you can't is because the bulls need mommy and daddy (the government) to wet-nurse them when things aren't going their way. Bulls have all the advantages, including a corrupt government on their side. So when things don't go their way, they whine and pout until chrome domes Paulson and Bernanke come to the rescue.
You might think I'm upset because the Dow was up 270 points today. On the contrary! Those of you who listened to my video heard me loud and clear calling for a major bounce higher. I said I had never been more confident of a bounce being in store. So I am delighted, thrilled, pleased, and contented that the surge happened. Terrific! It just creates more shorting opportunities! Added to which, my patented $SLIX indicator - the traffic on this site - flashed a clear "buy!" signal yesterday:

A lot of this was driven by an explosive rally in banks. Wells Fargo was up nearly one-third. Wells Fargo! This is a old, staid bank! And it moved higher on enormous volume, too. Long term, it's clear the financial system is heading for disaster. I don't think we've seen anything yet. These countertrend rallies are all just part of the unfolding collapse.

Original

Present

I did three main things with my trading today:

Took about 40% of my positions off the table with respect to energy (lightening positions, taking profits)
Took some profits early in the day on a handful of issues (and a loss - much more modest than I expected! - on takeover target ANR)
Very late in the day, re-entered a few positions, although the vast majority of my "hit list" is waiting in the wings, probably for tomorrow

I think the Dow has a decent amount of resistance at about the 11,430 level, shown below.

Original

Present

Sorry to bore you with another $UTIL graph, but this pattern just keeps getting more and more likely. It points to explosively higher interest rates, from what I can interpret.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-28 12:15

Sorry to bore you with another $UTIL graph, but this pattern just keeps getting more and more likely. It points to explosively higher interest rates, from what I can interpret.

Original

Present

I lightened up quite a bit on energy shorts today, with terrific profits. I think we're in for a bit of a breather here.

Original

Present

Modest resistance for the S&P is at 1,270. It becomes much firmer at 1,315.

Original

Present

I took half my profits on ICE yesterday and the other half today. I've drawn two necklines, and time will tell which is the real one. Obviously I am going to gobble up puts like a pig if it gets to the 110-115 area.

Original

Present

I did re-enter one put today (having taking profits on it just yesterday!) - Blackstone Group. I'm cheating just a little bit on this neckline. I hope my flexibility isn't punished.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-28 12:15

I did re-enter one put today (having taking profits on it just yesterday!) - Blackstone Group. I'm cheating just a little bit on this neckline. I hope my flexibility isn't punished.

Original

Present

STT was a firm retracement today. I'm ready to re-enter my short.

Original

Present

I've already short Textron. This looks like a very predictable pullback. Sweet.

Original

Present

Another "STT-like" retracement is BLK.

Original

Present

I'm going to re-enter SCHW short, provided it doesn't push higher than the right shoulder.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-28 12:16

I'm going to re-enter SCHW short, provided it doesn't push higher than the right shoulder.

Original

Present

This is a so-so graph. Not bad for a short. Meh.

Original

Present

OK, that's it. I've been charting since before the sun came up. Enough! Bulls, thanks for the rally. Feel free to tack on some more. I'm waiting for you.

Posted: 06:29 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

七月 08, 2008 - 04:10 下午Slope OperaMy "theme" has been repeated so often, it risks getting tiresome, but I'll say it again: energy shorts and agriculture shorts (with index option day-trades thrown in for good measure in either direction). It has served me well recently.
Even though yesterday showed the potential for "The Bounce", it sputtered very quickly. Today, however, a push higher held, and in some cases, the push was quite substantial. The Dow's 152 point rise was actually one of the tamer ones:

Original

Present

Since we're in a bear market, I really, really like rallies, because they give me new opportunities. The giant question, as always, is this: does the rally represent a one-day wonder, or is this simply the start of a very substantial countertrend, like we saw in mid-March through mid-May? I don't know. The IWM, shown below, doesn't hit really serious resistance until around $71.

Original

Present

I was excited this morning to see how quickly oil-related issues were plunging. Today's hammer pattern implies we're going to have a bit of a bounce short-term, but I think that for at least the medium-term, the high prices in crude were marked a few days ago.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-28 12:17

was excited this morning to see how quickly oil-related issues were plunging. Today's hammer pattern implies we're going to have a bit of a bounce short-term, but I think that for at least the medium-term, the high prices in crude were marked a few days ago.

Original

Present

In my IRA account, a couple of days ago, I went very bullish, putting all my cash into QLD, DDM, DUG, UYG, and UWM. Yesterday, July 7th, DUG's strength compensated for the weakness in the other four positions. Today, however, all five positions were up handsomely, particularly UYG, which benefited from the bounce I've been expecting from the world of investment banks.

Original

Present

I was amused to see a headling that AMBAC had "surged over 50%" today. Yes, that's very true.

Original

Present

But it's important to keep such things in context!

Original

Present

My puts on the $XAU had a decent day, but I am looking for much, much lower price levels from here.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-28 12:18

My puts on the $XAU had a decent day, but I am looking for much, much lower price levels from here.

Original

Present

With such a strong day for the bulls, it was particularly heartening to see one of my favorite put positions (and one of my largest ones) take it a bit on the chin. Clearly a break below last week's lows would spell great things for this position.

Original

Present

But even more favorite than that is the chart I keep foisting on you - ICE. It went up today some, but that's OK with me. This pattern is uber-powerful.

Original

Present

I bought some IBM puts today, although I've got fairly tight stops on it. It really depends on if this rally has legs or not.

Original

Present

My short on RJF was already in place, but it's pretty clear to me from this chart that, in spite of a 11% lift in the price of the stock, the general direction is going to be down.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-28 12:19

My short on RJF was already in place, but it's pretty clear to me from this chart that, in spite of a 11% lift in the price of the stock, the general direction is going to be down.

Original

Present

I was going to buy a bunch of BAC and COF stock this morning, but I didn't have time. Ah, well. It's no surprise to see such a battered issue have a spring higher. This is the largest rise BAC has seen in months.

Original

Present

The overinflation of OIH has definitely been let out to some degree. Looking at these fan lines, noodling around in the 200-210 range seems most likely.

Original

Present

Here are a couple of short ideas. MTL.........

Original

Present

......and STT, which seems to be retracting back toward its broken trendline.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-28 12:19

......and STT, which seems to be retracting back toward its broken trendline.

Original

Present

Tomorrow is also going to be busy for me. ThinkOrSwim users, please note I will be doing the "chat" session at 2 p.m. PST, 4 p.m. CST, 5 p.m. EST, so please join me there. I have no idea what I'll talk about, but I'm sure I'll think of something good by then!

Posted: 04:10 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

七月 07, 2008 - 03:54 下午Rocky Mountain HighGreetings from world-famous Denver International Airport. Some of you may think that I travel a lot. I don't. I just complain a lot about it when I do. Today was a fine example of why I hate traveling - - it takes me away from the markets! Incredibly, with just a few "quickie" opportunities to check into the market, I had a dynamite day, even making money (both directions) with some large Russell put (and then call) positions.
Lately I have been very correct about:

Fall in ag-related prices
Fall in oil-related prices

....and I've been very incorrect about.......

Bottom being in on investment banks
Equity markets being in position for a sustained bounce

Luckily, for those last two, (1) I haven't touched an investment bank, either long or short, for weeks; (2) I've been able to play the long and short side of equity index volatility very profitably.
This morning, I had 1000 shares of DIA, and when the Dow was up 100, I had that funny feeling that there wasn't going to be any more upside short term. I sold out (for a whopping $600 profit, which is pretty puny for a $112,000 position!) and bought Russell puts (since I was amazed to see Russell actually slightly down, in spite of the Dow being up 100 at the time). Well, the Dow lost all that, and 150 more, and those Russell puts turned out fabulous. Later in the day, I went long Russell calls and closed those out for a profit as well. I am - - as is the case these days - - in no index positions at all. I am simply uncomfortable at these levels holding big positions overnight.
$XBD seems to simply have no bottom. I have given up guessing. It'll probably take another major brokerage going belly-up.

Original

Present

DIA seems to be hitting at least a little support on its Fibonacci, but it's very, very weak. If we get a multi-week bounce, I'd expect a lot of strength on this one.

Original

Present

The head and shoulders formation I've been watching for weeks on $UTIL continues to very slow shape up.

Original

Present

OIH (finally!!!!) is starting to fall apart. It's about freakin' time.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-28 12:20

OIH (finally!!!!) is starting to fall apart. It's about freakin' time.

Original

Present

I am blown away how fast the Russell has fallen. Clearly here we have huge support from mid-January and mid-march. If we break mid-March, look out below.

Original

Present

Adding credence to the idea of support is the $OEX touch of the retracement as well.

Original

Present

S&P 500 broke its March lows (just look how far it has traveled since mid-May!!!). This has been a far more rapid bear swing than we've enjoyed in a long time.

Original

Present

There's a lot of high-quality chatter going on in the comments section, and some of it is centered around DUG, which broke above resistance today on very, very strong volume.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-28 12:21

There's a lot of high-quality chatter going on in the comments section, and some of it is centered around DUG, which broke above resistance today on very, very strong volume.

Original

Present

Now a few favorite short positions......CERN is falling away from resistance......

Original

Present

XEC is one of many energy shorts that has great potential and has already paid off.

Original

Present

If MasterCard breaks that major trendline at $240, it's an easy trip to $220, which is the measured target.

Original

Present

Add PXD to the energy list....

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-28 12:21

Add PXD to the energy list....

Original

Present

I'm crazy about SOHU. I own a ton of these puts.

Original

Present

AZO is move away from the retracement it made toward its diamond pattern.

Original

Present

BHI has taken a while to ferment, but I think it's finally there.

Original

Present

COP has sweet potential as a failed bullish breakout.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-28 12:22

COP has sweet potential as a failed bullish breakout.

Original

Present

DECK has been weirdly strong, but I've got hope for this one.

Original

Present

And EOG is doing fantastically; very little support anywhere in sight!

Original

Present

I'm getting on a plane now. I will not have another post until VERY LATE Tuesday night. See you then!

Posted: 03:54 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-28 12:23

七月 05, 2008 - 04:01 下午The Wall of WorryI am writing this entry on Saturday, July 5th during a very pleasant three-day weekend in Colorado. I do not think I will have an opportunity to do another post until Monday night.
Over the past couple of days, I have spent a lot of time (as you might imagine) thinking about the markets and looking at the charts. The "contrarian-contrarian" viewpoint seems to be going something like this: "Since everything is so bearish (including this weeks' cover story of Barron's), then the obvious contrarian conclusion is that the market is going to bounce. But since so many contarians are so loudly declaring that we're a bounce is inevitable at this point, then we're bound to keep falling, because the market always like to surprise the most people possible."
That kind of thinking - - that is, trying to outguess what everyone on the planet is thinking - - can make you crazy. I prefer to stick to the charts. What the charts are telling me is that we're in for a bounce (and not the kind that lasts for just a few hours). I don't intend to get overly aggressive about this bounce. But I will say that (a) I took a huge portion of my positions either wholly or partly off the table on Friday, including all my index puts; (b) I went long a number of bullish ETF funds (the double-correlated kind); (c) I intend to make select long equity purchases on Monday, barring a surprise.
One index chart that seems terribly ripe for at least a few days of an upturn is the $XBD:

Original

Present

Looking at the $INDU, its price has the Bollinger Band distorted very badly, and I think a list of about 700 points higher from here would bring a lot of needed relief to the market (and a new opportunity for the author and readers of this blog to reload).

Original

Present

The Transports, too, look ready to get back to about 5,100; a drop in crude prices, which I strongly suspect will happen, will provide an impetus for such a climb.

Original

Present

My target for the retracement on the $MSH is about $580.

Original

Present

As for OIH, this fell nicely on Wednesday and Thursday, and I can easily see this getting to below $200 this week.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-28 12:24

As for OIH, this fell nicely on Wednesday and Thursday, and I can easily see this getting to below $200 this week.

Original

Present

To see just how badly banking is battered (there's your alliteration for the day.......), look at this chart going back a dozen years. We are, at these levels, at depths not plunged since the nadir of the currency crisis of 1998, and we are well below even the most gruesome months of the 2000-2002 bear market.

Original

Present

I read somewhere that GM was at the lowest levels for its stock since 1954. I'm not sure where they are getting that price data, but it's not really accurate, as you can see below. In any case, if you had bought GM when Lyndon Johnson was present, you would (even assuming 0% infllation for 40 years) still be in the red. Isn't that amazing?

Original

Present

The Russell generated fantastic profits for me last week. Obviously, a climb back to anywhere above $700 would make this a very enticing short. Until then, I shall either do nothing or dabble with intraday (not overnight!) call positions.

Original

Present

The S&P 100 got close enough to its Fibonacci retracement for my satisfaction.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-28 12:24

The S&P 100 got close enough to its Fibonacci retracement for my satisfaction.

Original

Present

And the S&P 500 touched it nicely, creating what might be a firm triple bottom. If, later this year, the market resumes its downward trajectory, a break below these levels will be devastating for the bulls.

Original