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发表于 2009-3-28 10:34
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Besides the "retrace to the neckline" pattern, the other one I'm seeing over and over again is the one where the price has fallen far, far, far away from the major broken trendline. It's tougher to know how long to hold on to these.
The past four weeks have been very good to me. If I had been a lot braver, they would have been ridiculously, obscenely, horribly "Lear Jet" good. But let's not go there :-) The traffic to the blog this week was also spectacular. I imagine it will soften up quite a bit as bear-mania starts to fade. But I've already got my fiendish plans in place for when the bulls think everything is OK again. Until then, I'm going to innocently blend into the herd and be one of them.
Posted: 08:29 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
十月 10, 2008 - 10:58 上午Going Long OIHIn spite of getting burned very, very badly so far on any long positions, I am entering a large OIH call position at these levels. The confluence of the Fibs and the absurd battering over the past seven days makes this attractive to me. I am getting January calls, deep in the money. Nothing crazy. But big.
The symbol I got is .OIDAL and the price I paid was $29.
Posted: 10:58 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
十月 07, 2008 - 07:56 下午Con DescensionThe social fabric is starting to tear. It's shocking and sad to start to read about the suicides, murder/suicides, and other violence that's starting to take place prompted by the nationwide meltdown. I imagine it's going to get worse over the years. Indeed, I think the social rage is going to reach a point where one or more of the super-rich execs (Richard Fuld or someone like that) will get shot down or otherwise killed. I'm not suggesting or condoning it; I am simply speculating that things are going to get so out of hand, that's how bad it's going to get. If I were one of these folks that had made hundreds of millions, I would probably leave the country and never go back. They're going to be hated. The little "shame, shame!" sessions we've seen in Congress the past couple of days are just the beginning.
I've reached the point where I've stopped listening to the bottom-pickers, including myself. I went long the market yesterday in a big way. I made out very well on my index calls, which I got out of this morning. Those calls would be huge losers (obviously) if I had simply hung on. As profitable as it has been, I'm starting to kind of hate this market. I feel like I'm a person who wants to catch fish, and there just happen to be bombers overhead dropping explosives into the pond. I'm able to get the fish, but the way I'm doing so is causing huge, horrible damage, plus it's terrifying.
You've probably seen, as I have, how economic cycles inflate different asset classes, and the last one to inflate is commodities. That's certainly what has happened recently. Remember all the hoo-ha this summer over expensive oil, expensive wheat, expensive gold, and expensive everything else? The air has come out of that really fast. I think we're heading for $50-$55 crude oil within a matter of months, if not weeks.
What about wheat? Can you say "head and shoulders"?
The collapse that is taking place in equity prices is obviously shocking. For goodness sake, Ford is at 1986 prices, and there's almost nothing in the way of support between here and the bottom in 1982. |
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