Mar 7, 2008 11:20am
s3padrian
Member
Member Since Apr 2007
373 Posts
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Updates on my previous counts.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=93182&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1204906812 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=93183&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1204906812
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #2074
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 8, 2008 11:19pm
s3padrian
Member
Member Since Apr 2007
373 Posts
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I know people like USDJPY. Here's an alternate macro count.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=93423&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205036341
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#2075
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 9, 2008 4:27am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY
GBPJPY
Using FIB Tools to Forecast Its Track
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
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__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Mar 9, 2008 9:25am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY Details 030909
Chart 1 is a weekly chart showing the number of days each of the 4 of 5 waves within the Wave C.
C1 took 16 days
C2 took 13 days
C3 took 26 days and
C4 took 16 days
To me C4 was a 3 wave structure and not a 5 wave structure.
Initially I was thinking that C4 would retrace C3 by 61.8 because C2 retraced C1 by 38.2.
However, if we look at the time factor, C2 took 13 days while C4 already took 16 days. I am then inclined to think that Time wise, instead of C4=C2, a little more than this or C4 taking longer than C2 is still acceptable.
What would be a bit unclear though is the adherence to the rule of alternation.
C2 internal structure has wb retrace wa by around 70% and wc projected/extended by around 80% of wa
While wb of C4 retraced wa by around 88% and wc projected/ extended by approximately 80% also
Some may argue that C4 may still be in a complex corrective wave which is continuing to expand. However, I would disgree with that because price has alread gone lower than the end of the proposed C3 thereby debunking the idea that C4 is expanding sideways in a complex corrective wave.
Chart 2
Daily chart showing the Time Factor I was looking at for w4 and w2.
Also you can see that I used a FIB Projection tool to forecast where w4 within C5 would end. I was already assuming that this was w4 inside C5 because as you can see on the daily chart3 waves of a proposed 5 wave secquence has already been finished. Even if you go to the lower time frames, these 3 waves to me satisfy the internal wave count requirements of w1, w2 and w3
Using the FIB extention tool, w4 could end at 209.02 or 211.59 FE 100 or FE 161.8.
However, looking at the other ways of projecting w4, it is said to be not to overlap with w1 which is @ 208.77. Therefore both projections may be too high.
Next, way to look at projecting w4 is the levels it has been observed to retrace w3 which are 23.6%. 38.2%, 50% and 61.8%. it is already past 38.2% and the wave c part of the corrective wave seems still unfinished. which leads me to think that there is still some more room for price to go up.
50% retrace is my next target which is @ 208.49 just below the Limit level where w4 is not supposed to overlap with w1.
Chart 3
Shows FE 100.0 and 161.8 aside from the the FIB retracement levels in particular the 50% @ 208.49
Chart 4
Shows more candlesticks and the internal structure of the w4 under the 4 hour chart
Chart5
Notice the Blue FIB Extention tool. w3 lands near the FE 200.0 level. When I when I encounter these situations, often I would observe w5 to reach the FE 300.00 level
Chart6
And FE 300 is @ 198.24..... This would be my first TP
Chart 7
But if we go back to wave of higher degree on the weekly chart and use the FIB extention tool again to project end of Wave C Purple ( see chart 7 ), FE 100.00 has be taken out or exceeded @ 209.49.
Next target level is @ FE 161.8 @ 189.80 which makes it the maximum target profit based on these 2 ways to project end of wave C
The first was projecting end of wave 5 of the higher degree wave C purple using the internal structure of wave 5 itself.
The second is projecting end of wave C using its known levels of relationship with wave A.
But there is one other thing to be considered. This whole ABC corrective wave is a wave 4 on the weekly chart. And we know that the main rule governing wave 4 projections is that it must never overlap with wave 1 of the same wave degree.
Chart 8
Below shows how I would label my weekly chart and it shows wave 1 to have had the high of 208.14 and this already has been overlapped with by our current corrective wave.
Based on the EW rules, The only time that wave 4 is allowed to overlap with wave 1 is when it is in a triangle.
Now I would not consider this as the actual trend reversal of the carry trade trend from 251.07 because of the 3 wave structure of the 1st leg down to 219.31
I still have something to add to this. But I will post this now and add later. Notes later will study or discuss in some detail this big wave 4 and its implications in the overall EW scenario for this pair.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=93471&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205069113
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #2077
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 10, 2008 4:21am
adji04
Member
Member Since Dec 2006
56 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif ask:E/U please....
guys plz post eurusd...
because i will start trading with this curr ...
thankshttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/winking.gif
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#2078
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 10, 2008 6:47am
Serega
Member
Member Since Jun 2007
162 Posts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by adji04 http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
guys plz post eurusd...
because i will start trading with this curr ...
thankshttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/winking.gif
What time frame do you use for trading euro?
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#2079
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 10, 2008 8:04pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY
I hope all of you profitted from that sell off.
I got to unhedge my long trades by exiting my equivalent short trade after w3 bottomed just in time to still have some positive pips in the bag.
Signal that there was this opportunity was when that Aqua Trsymmetrical triangle formed nicely. w5 if w4 was a triangle was supposed to have been equal to the widest part of the triangle and based on the Guideline of wave equality w5=w1 for waves inside an extended wave 3.
As you will see I was able to re-enter my new short trade right near where it turned around to end w4 blue. Incidentally, that was a wc=wa for a zigzag w4 after w2 being a FLAT.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
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__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#2080
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 10, 2008 8:19pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY on lower TF
checking the lower TF for Potential retracement where 1 can add on to their position if they want.
This seems to have finished w51 so expecting a 50-61.8% retrace back up towards 204.18
I would not recommend trading long yet. I would prefer to stick to the main trend.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
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__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Mar 10, 2008 8:59pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif RISKS on GBPJPY
unhedged at the zigzag pull back and re entered above it.
re entered a bit early but safer with already a positive pip balance after unhedging and at re-entry point.
wave52 in this internal structure could have retraced on following levels starting @ 38.2, 50, 61.8 and even higher as you will note with the ticked levels.
2nd part re-entry was @ 50% level. 1st was @ 38.2
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
update0831 GMT
Currently under a drawdown with the short position.
However, this is stilla hedge for my long positions.
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__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Mar 10, 2008 10:24pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #2082
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 10, 2008 11:22pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif continuing the count
Limits have not yet been invalidated.
Hold on to your seats as this GBPJPY looks set to ride the SHORT wave down. Leaving my short trades to ride till I see a potential wave 4 pull back or will trade the lower or higher TF looking for a potential Impulse wave end.
To be validated by a wave 2 pull back or a wave B pull back.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
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__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Mar 11, 2008 2:44am
Serega
Member
Member Since Jun 2007
162 Posts
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Here cad and aud. On euro lately.
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #2089
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 11, 2008 7:20am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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GBPUSD
May soon reverse. waiting for the cross of Tenkan sen and Kijun sen and a signal from the stochastic oscillator cross back.
GBPJPY
Still looking for some move up. Positions were on a hedge from near the bottom. This is the problem/dilemna when I leave my trades to run. But hedging the wrong trade positions causes a temporary drawdown. The movement can be large as this was ( about 140 pips ). However, net loss was actually Zero as the positions were equally hedged.
If it went my way, Then we would have profited earlier. As it is ...... we suffered a temporary drawdown.
I think this is important to our OR my Psychological well being. We should not fear these large moves. What is important is we do our homework in analizing the charts and incase we do miss the actual direction of the trade, we need to learn when to hedge them and for how long and till which level.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
PS... Both Pairs would have give nice long trades on the 5minute charts using Ichimoku.
Chikou span crossing price while Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen crossed and above the Kumo Cloud.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94137&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205234332
Attached Imageshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94138&stc=1&d=1205234332
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Mar 11, 2008 11:53am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
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My apologies to all those who have been disappointed with the Ichimoku charts. They may seem out of place in this thread.
But like other elliotticians, some also use various technical indicators to validate their wave counts or points of reversal.
I have been studying multiple strategies and systems along side my wave counts. So I have somehow gotten a feel for how some pairs react to a specific technical indicator.
And lately, I have been using Ichimoku charts. I must admit that this set up has somehow combined various strategies within its system.
The Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen cross signals some how are analogous to MA cross signals. and where it happens like above, within or below the Kumo cloud can be related to like MA cross signals happening above or below 50ema or 100sma for example.
Then there is the Chikou span. Its crossing the price bars or candlesticks at the same time or after Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen have crossed gives a nice signal to enter a trade specially if both crossings happen on the same side of the Kumo cloud.
You may ask... where do all this come into my Elliott Wave Analysis? Like the way I use the GMMA, The Trend Follower, Andrews Pitchfork and Schiffs Median Line, Pivots, Support and Resistance Levels, Trend Lines, Fibs, Patterns and a concoction of multiple technical indicators, They provide some form of an explanation where Price could probably be going. For me, I can trade naked with just the Fibs and stochastics but can only use it on Higher TF like 4hours at least. But that takes so long. I need various systems and indicators to help me get a feel of the market specially because I study and trade too the lower TFs.
I will not pretend to know a lot. That is probably why I need the technical indicators to provide or validate my EW counts. And so far it has lent to a quiet and profitable trading scenario. No need to Panic when a position goes against me. We some how know the potential of a mistake/miscalculation and hedging the trades properly help in maintaining calmness amidst a drawdown or before a drawdown.
Signals from different indicators somehow help in Identifying a price turn, a confirmation of a trend or provide signs of a ranging market. So do not be surprised to see charts with other strategies showing up in this thread.
Attaching charts for GBPUSD and GBPJPY which I have been trading this
week.
GBPJPY has a signal on the 5min chart. But I am not taking it now as I prefer to hold just hold mu current trades.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94217&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205250129 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94220&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205250167
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #2091
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 11, 2008 12:40pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY
I would consider this as an Impulse move UP because w3 was projected as FE425.00. ABC Corrections can go up to as high as FE161.8 and rarely FE 261.8.
But in this case it was FE 425.0. I am more inclined to believe that this is a 5 wave move. At least that is how I see it now.
I might have to get ready to unload my remaining short even at a loss. Just have to find a strategic level. But will study the scenario first.
next chart is an alternative way to count which at this point I will follow for now.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
PS..... You can actually use the Chikou span (Lime) like a line graph where one can check their wave count based on the wave formation.
Also looks like a Cup formation on this one
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94241&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205252975
Attached Imageshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94247&stc=1&d=1205253472
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#2092
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 11, 2008 8:01pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY
GBPJPY while I was sleeping.......
Looking at the 1st chart, that looks to have been the proper count instead of the 2nd one.
I guess I wanted the Pair to get back on the Bear trend refusing to acknowledge the fact that the projection went to as high as FE 425.00
I was focusing on the expectation that wave 5 will be truncated because of the very strong wave 3 that I noted. Also on the same chart, wave 4 is noted to have retraced wave 3 by 38.2%.
'Was hesitant to leave the trade before I hit the sack here because of the Stochastics. However, sleep was more important and besides, ny trades were hedged.
With the current scenario, this looks like price has made a 5 wave impulse wave. Though this has gone up a bit far, I would now think that based on An EW reference from RET, there is a possibility that wave 5 may also be extended OR be w5=w1 with the Lower Highs and Lower Lows
But definitely..... I think this will revisit or retrace this large UP Move. That is where I will decide to unhedge my Long Trades and exit my short trades.
In the meantime, it would be scalping time for me on this pair and the GBPUSD.
Remember that these trades I take have been "hedged my way" and not really using another's way of hedging trades. You can only do this with LOW LEVERAGE.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
PS. Throwing in more charts on Ichimoku together with EW. Notice how the Chikou span looks like the Line graph where you can have an idea how the waves are formed. So I use the Chikou span for its original use as a part signal when it crosses price bars or CS and as an automatic identifier of Potential chart formations like Head and shoulders patterns, triangles, flags....
I have labelled the candlesticks with the EW counts I now have and you will also notice I did the same thing on the Chikou span ( Lime line ).
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94316&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205279729 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94317&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205279729 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94318&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205279748 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94320&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205280052
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94321&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205280277
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Mar 11, 2008 8:14pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY
Before I leave....
Something to think about...
I just noticed the Previous Day's Price Range and seeing the Lower Highs and the Lower Lows.....
if this pair is in a correction now, it will retrace towards as near as it could get to the Low of the Previous Day.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
PS. Keep an eye on the Stochastics
A move down to the weekly Pivot for Potential A of a Zigzag then a bounce up towards the Daily Pivot as B then a bounce down to the Previous Days Low for C.
Profitable Trading To Everyone....
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94322&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205280764
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #2094
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 12, 2008 3:25am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar3774_3.gifbohebolo
Pattern Trader
Member Since Oct 2005
33 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon5.gif
Dude, i'm confuse "reading" your chart... http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/confused.gif
if you can remove some object from that, i think it will be more "clear" http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/peace.gif
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#2095
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 12, 2008 3:37am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar63204_1.gifebooks
Member
Member Since Mar 2008
4 Posts
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Totally right, dude. a bit overwhelming...
__________________
Forex, {Link Removed}
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#2096
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 12, 2008 3:49am
Serega
Member
Member Since Jun 2007
162 Posts
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Eur/jpy Low of yesterday I think is control level. Any ideas?
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94395&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205308138
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#2097
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 12, 2008 4:32am
Serega
Member
Member Since Jun 2007
162 Posts
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Euro possibly is going to move south
Wish profits
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94400&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205310742
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#2098
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 12, 2008 6:26am
Serega
Member
Member Since Jun 2007
162 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Looks like we have on euro neither 2 nor b wave.
Thats badhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/sad.gif
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#2099
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 12, 2008 7:22am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
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for Bohebolo and ebooks.....
I am not like the rest of the Elliotticians here as I know I am still far from being one. I do not use EW singly in my Price and Market analysis. And As I have mentioned before, I am an ambitious person trying to study the market using various strategies.
I do this single handed without any staff to monitor various strategies alongside my Wave counts. You can not imagine the amount of effort and time spent on it at the same time learning EW.
There are times I can squeeze time to remake and clean up my charts. But there will be a lot of times I just would not have time to do it.
Now the core of who I am is that I want to know and learn how this is done. So You will see me here writing about how I do my wave counts as this is no secret. It is also my intention to show newbies in particular that there are simple tools we can use to assist us in EW Counting. True, there may be rules to internalize and learn almost by heart. Infact, the first time I realize that, I told myself , how on earth will I ever remember all these rules enumerated in about 9-11 pages plus the books. But I think, I am starting to internalize them and I believe that constant use and application of these rules and guidelines will allow me to practice EW with greater confidence.
Now I must declare that this thread is not a signal provider. Far from being one. But this thread's purpose is to encourage others to see what and how EW is and how I do it. We may have different counts. But I was hoping to encourage others to post their counts so we can compare. However, very few are participating.
You will also notice that I often take tike to color code my fib retracements and FIB Extentions. this is to help identify Points or levels used and for which points and projections they refer to. If you missed to spot that, then I do not think my EW counts will be of value to you.
I want you to know how these counts are arrived at and not just provide them to you blindly. I want you to know why I labelled them as such so that if I missed a point or I used it wrongly, then you can tell me I am wrong and why.
So I must apologize to the 2 of you that I can not assure you I will always clean up my charts. There is more to these charts than just the EW counts.
Besides I am already too lazy to make new clean charts just to post here. You will see here the charts I use on my desktop.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#2100
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 12, 2008 8:14am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
GBPJPY on m15
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94466&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205324005 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94470&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205324229
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Mar 12, 2008 8:50am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY
GBPJPY
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Update on 2nd chart
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94480&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205326204 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94493&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205328872
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Mar 12, 2008 9:34am
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #2102
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 12, 2008 12:53pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY Charts
while I was offline or barely had any connection to the internet.....
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94550&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205340706 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94551&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205340706 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94552&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205340731 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94553&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205340731
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94554&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205340760 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94555&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205340760 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94556&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205340778
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Mar 12, 2008 12:56pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY Details of Analysis
And here are the details for my GBPJPY Price Analysis
Drafted while basically offline.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
This is so frustrating as I wanted to post this as I was drawing up the charts. But my platform was disconnected and it seems my internet connection even though a Broadband seems to be having problems.
But I am going to post these charts still when I get my connection back just so those who follow this thread will see the thought process in my analysis of how GBPJPY would probably workout in terms of Price projection based on the different Guidelines available for Impulse waves and Corrective waves.
You will notice that I first suggested a Zigzag wave 2.
1st I suggested a possible Zigzag wave 2 because we had a 5 wave move even if it ended with an Ending Diagonal wave 5 of smaller degree.
Then ask ,” should that not have been A or 1 then B or 2?” The answer is A and B was eliminated due to the fact that the supposed C reached more than FE 161.8. Infact, I was inclined to consider a very rare occurrence of a C = FE 261.8.
But this was already more than FE 425.0. THAT eliminated the possibility of and ABC. Therefore this is not a corrective wave or move. But an Impulse wave that potentially signals a Trend Reversal.
Potential Trend Reversal?.... Yes. That is right. It is always a potential until it plays out as such.
Now if we think that that impulse wave was wave 1, a retracement is expected.
Then we should be seeing a correction now and that would be a wave 2.
And we know that wave 2 normally is a zigzag.
So that should be the first thing to expect.
However , we also know that it can be a FLAT or an Irregular FLAT.
But rarely a triangle or is it NEVER?
If wave 2 is a Zigzag, chances are if will try to retrace from 61.8% down to 88% or even up to 100% of wave 1 and that is down to 203.66
But we will have a better idea as we watch how the legs play out.
We know that the internal structure of wave A gives us an idea
a.) on how B will potentially play out and
b.) what the whole corrective wave could possibly be
if A was a 3 wave structure Zigzag, then usually B will be a FLAT / Irregular FLAT or a more complex Zigzag to achieve some form of alternation within the corrective wave.
We also know that a Zigzag begins with a 5 wave stricture A while a FLAT or Irregular FLAT begins with an ABC.
In this case, we seem to have a 3 wave A
So overall must be a FLAT or an IRREGULAR FLAT in this wave 2 position
(But can also be a Triangle if this was in the wave 4 position)
Followed by an Irregular FLAT B.
To Project wave C,
FLAT = Generally wC = wA so FE 100.0 @ 205.87
Iregular FLAT = Generally wC = wA(1.618) or FE 161.8 @ 204.86
I am still unable to close my Long Trade for a small profit. So frustrating because I missed to Place my TP.
EGJ
PS. Finally got out even with 7 pips.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94558&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205340935 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94559&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205340935
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #2104
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 12, 2008 12:59pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY
unless GBPJPY encounters a strong support at the Daily Pivot level of 206.25 which could result in a further expansion of wave B. and push forward and delay the downward move for C.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Wow.... I forgot about the Triple swap on a Wednesday... That usually pushes this pair into the AIR.
I should have anticipated the move from Monday towards Wednedsday and now we have this pullback/retrace.
Would this extend towards Friday for a Potential Powerful move UP again on Monday culminating that possible wave 3 of wave 1 UP for a much bigger Wave 5 on the Daily chart?
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Mar 12, 2008 1:21pm
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#2105
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 12, 2008 1:33pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY
Pivots and Ichimoku helping determine potential support to coincide with retracement and projection/extention.
Provide trigger signals to trade a potential trend coinciding with the EW count.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94564&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205343179 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94565&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205343179 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94567&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205343623
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#2106
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 12, 2008 1:49pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Still another possibility on GBPJPY
another potential to bear in mind for GBPJPY
TIME.....
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94570&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205344141 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94571&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205344287 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94572&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205344498 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94573&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205344498
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Mar 12, 2008 2:00pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY bounce
Potential bounce for Y?
Entered a medium size trade to hedge my Short
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94575&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205345037 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94576&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205345037
Attached Imageshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94574&stc=1&d=1205344760
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #2108
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 12, 2008 2:25pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY
GBPJPY m05
Very Ideal scenario of walking the pair...... or should I say riding the waves?
Still but a potential...
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94583&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205346304 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94584&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205346776
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#2109
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 12, 2008 2:49pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY
end of wave 4 of smaller degree attained 50% retrace level instead of 38.2
Now for the 4 then another move up till the Asian Session....
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94586&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205347715 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94587&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205347715
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#2110
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 12, 2008 3:00pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY
GBPJPY
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94588&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205348342 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94589&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205348379
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Mar 12, 2008 8:33pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY
Good Morning Everyone. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Nice day, fine trading after a few hours of sleep.
w2 seems to be playing out fine for me.
If the wave counts on the price charts do not seem to add up to what is expected in form and size, there are other ways to verify.
And I use EW parameters for potential wave 2 and also the stochastics. Note that I also tried numbering the waves based on the Stochastics and I realized that the wave count on the chart itself did not play out that well.
But because we have other Guidelines to use, we are able to explain the new count better.
Remember Divergence in Stochastics.
Also note where Price bounced off. It was between the Weekly Pivot and the Daily S1.
And because the last low is now the Previous Days Low and price is still too near hear and just near the Daily S1, I would think that there is still a slight chance that price may still come down and even invalidate our count further.
But what would totally invalidate this is if price goes lower than 203.57
Remember that w2 is allowed to retrace w1 up to 100%.
In the meantime, I am still hedged.
When do I unhedge? hhhhmmmmm
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94659&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205367801 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94660&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205367801 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94661&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205367823 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94662&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205367823
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94663&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205367837
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #2113
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 12, 2008 8:44pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY
GBPJPY
Harmonic Patterns on the 15min chart indicates a still Bearish Pattern.
The Andrews Pitchfork on the 30 min shows a possible further move down to the 50% Breakout Level of the Prev Day's Range down to 203.5.
Although there is a better chance of seeing Daily S2 @ 204.29 which is near the 23.6% Breakout Level.
If you are using Trend Follower's System, a potential further fanning out of the MAs could also be seen or observed.
1st potential Reversal move using Murrey Math is @ 203.91 which coincides with 38.2% of the FIB Breakout level using Spudfyre's FIB Breakout Range.
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#2114
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 12, 2008 9:05pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif gbpjpy alternative count
Alternative count for GBPJPY
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94671&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205370104 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94673&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205370491 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94676&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205370845
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#2115
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 12, 2008 9:37pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY Macro view
Macro Point of View for GBPJPY.
Does this support the Fundamentals?
A possible wave 52 expansion on the Daily chart possibly duping traders into thinking that a reversal of trend is in place.
Bulls may only be having a temporary feasting. But Beware as Bears are probably just taking a breather. Too kind to allow the Bulls to feast for awhile.....
Note that if this w52....... w53 could be a big one . So be ready for anything.
Looks like my hedges will be staying on for a longer time..
This is probably what is nice with trading forex compared to Equities.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
PS.... Trying not to get caught and trapped within the wave counts of the lower time frames.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94681&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205372154 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94682&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205372172
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Mar 12, 2008 9:58pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY still with another view
Do not get confused with the different counts. I try to provide the different possible counts I see. It is up to you to see what you think is better or usable for your trades.
Note that trading a particular time frame could make a lot of difference in the outcome.
Do not hedge if the account is highly leveraged which I do not recommend unless you are an expert forex trader. Well... if you are an expert forex trader.... why would you even be on this thread http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/big_grin.gif .
So, newbies as most of you I note seem to be more classified under guests, start with a low leverage and still use good MM.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94689&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205373453 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94690&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205373453
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #2117
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 12, 2008 10:10pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
hhhmmmm
Attached Imageshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94694&stc=1&d=1205374206 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94695&stc=1&d=1205374206 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94696&stc=1&d=1205374217
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#2118
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 12, 2008 10:24pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY
.....
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94707&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205375564
Attached Imageshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94706&stc=1&d=1205375080
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Mar 12, 2008 10:51pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
.....
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94708&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205376656 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94709&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205376656
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #2120
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 12, 2008 11:25pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY
.....
ready to unhedge and take out the short trades @ end of w53 or allow to just ride the wave up on w54 then down again for w55.
in the meantime trade very light if at all..
Remember that the longtrades are earning SWAP interest (although may not be enough to compensate for the negative SWAP ) while the short trades could start earning as price goes down.
More of the less risky trades to be made now and preferably more of the short trades as we are seeing a larger tendency of a continuing Bear Trend on GBPJPY
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94717&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205379137 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94722&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205379256
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#2121
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 12, 2008 11:42pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD
Something that might aide in EW counting on the GBPUSD.
May need to watch out actual trend on the weekly chart.
In the meantime that I am not yet ready to make my EW count on the GBPUSD as I have focused on the GBPJPY..... attached charts might be worth looking into for Price turns.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
PS. The Trend Follwer chart on the GBPJPY m15 turned out very nice.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94725&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205379668 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94726&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205379668 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94727&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205379688 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94728&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205379688
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94729&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205379710 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94730&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205379710 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94731&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205379724
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Mar 12, 2008 11:55pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY Count Caution
I switch charts between different TFs.
Some labels may not actually fit into the higher TF count. Just like the chart below. But you may be able to use it to determine impulse from corrective waves.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Updating within the posts by adding updated charts instead of new posts that drives this thread up the Discussion List.
update 2 : Chart 7
Changing/Revising wave count as it looks to have a triangle (ending diagonal triangle)
202.96 is finally HIT lower than the 203.1 proposed. If this was not a hedge, I would exit my short trade and run along. to trade another day.
But...... have to be careful when to unhedge.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94733&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205380514 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94736&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205380850 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94743&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205383507 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94745&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205383713
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94746&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205384312 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94754&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205387451
Attached Imageshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94759&stc=1&d=1205389877
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Mar 13, 2008 2:42am
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #2123
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 13, 2008 2:53am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY
Reserved....
1 last wave 5 of 5 of 5.....
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
UPDATE
Chart 1 moved back the count because of the breakout to the upside so no 5 wave move in the tringe for the ending diagonal >
Update
chart 2
has 2 alternative counts in magenta and in blue
chart 3
shows an end to an impulsive wave. to be followed by a correction
Chart 4
Target short HIT and All Shorts taken off for some profit. Looks consolidating and getting ready to go down again. If not then Daily and Weekly Pivot could be next targets
Chart #6
is the narrow black ground chart. sorry about that. charts do not seem to follow a chronological order as they are posted.
if the move down is w51 of a bigger wave 5 down then at the minimum, a retrace of 61.8% is expected.
Drawing up the fib retracement tool.... we see that 61.8% level land where there is a confluence of the Daily , Weekly Pivot and the Strong Level of Resistance on the Murrey Math Set-up.
Let see how these will play up. I am trying to restrain myself from entering any short trades yet as my Long trades are now fully unhedged.
UPDATE 1100GMT
I had to leave earlier to pick up my kid from school. I was forced to hedge my Long Trades again. But it was okay because it had already retraced quite a bit putting me overall in a profitable position.
I checked my stochastics and the wave form though before pulling the trigger. came back to -19pips on the hedge
Now we have a Bearish Harmonic pattern on the 15min chart and price seem to be finding resistance at the Daily S2 while the stochastics is already over bought at the 15min chart too.
Could be a continuation down now.....
Chart #7
Got 10 pips from that last hedge and till now no new hedge for the long trades yet. Along the long trades to recover. Not really in a hurry to enter or add to my current recovering long trades.
Its recovery is a contribution to the increased earnings which is borrowed as price went down with my other short trades.
This is where one realizes that it is not important to be in a trade always or to keep adding on to your positions. These days, I am learning to stay put and trade less but more selective with entry positions.
turning to be quite profitable. Patience and restraint are key to a successful and profitable trading.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94782&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205394682 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94783&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205394682 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94786&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205395178 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94803&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205398593
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94846&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205412147
Attached Imageshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94768&stc=1&d=1205392632 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94807&stc=1&d=1205400240
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Mar 13, 2008 8:42am
Mar 13, 2008 2:54am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY
Reserved for charts....
Price is still far from the kumo clouds on the 5 minchart. more up move expected. Although it has crossed down on the 1min chart
can one understand why certain FIB levels on my chart are ticked?
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
UPDATE 1500GMT
Chart #4
Price has retraced by 38.2%. However this may just be the leg B of the whole correction. C is projected to go from 205.88 to as high as 207.26 for the FE 100.0 and FE 161.8 respectively.
Chart #5
from a different view
Chart #6
Trying to stay above the Kumo
Chart #7
Hedged all my Long Trades again as you can see on the chart. I am already in profit. so hedging this is fine now so I can go to sleep soundly knowing that if it goes up, net profit is same as before I went to bed. And if it goes down, my short trades will start earning again even though the Long trades will be on the drawdown side.
Good night everyone.
1548 GMT
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94852&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205413802 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94853&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205413802 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94854&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205414102
Attached Imageshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94884&stc=1&d=1205420330 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94885&stc=1&d=1205420641 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94889&stc=1&d=1205421434 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94902&stc=1&d=1205422941
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Mar 13, 2008 11:42am
61.8% retrace is @ 206.05
78.6% @ 206.89
88% @ 207.36
1414 PHI 031408
too bad for me. I have to leave now. re entered a full hedge @ 203.86
Won't be around to watch for a better entry.
increased my profit level even though I sacrificed 15 pips earlier.Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95077&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205464480 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95089&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205468296
Attached Imageshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95074&stc=1&d=1205463393
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Mar 14, 2008 2:08am
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #2126
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 13, 2008 8:02am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar55375_1.gifpipchaser
Expect the unexpected
Member Since Dec 2007
95 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GJ
Hi EG, IMO W5 was completed at 202.96 and we are now in A wave which can retrace between 38%-50% of W5. What do you think? thank you
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#2127
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 13, 2008 8:05am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar55375_1.gifpipchaser
Expect the unexpected
Member Since Dec 2007
95 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by pipchaser http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Hi EG, IMO W5 was completed at 202.96 and we are now in A wave which can retrace between 38%-50% of W5. What do you think? thank you
I'm talking about H4 timeframe
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#2128
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 13, 2008 8:56am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pipchaser http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Hi EG, IMO W5 was completed at 202.96 and we are now in A wave which can retrace between 38%-50% of W5. What do you think? thank you
It is very possible that wave 5 of C bottomed at 202.96. We saw a 5 wave structured impulse wave which could also be described as having a w5 of smaller degree being almost equal to its w1 of the sma esmaller degree.
But let us not forget that it is also possible that even if wave 3 was already extended, wave 5 can also be extended.
we can only have a higher probability of saying that the trend has already reversed on the weekly chart if price GOES higher than 213.86. That was the level which we would have placed our wave 4 if that wave 4 was only in 3 waves and not a triangle.
Also consider that there is also a possibility that we had a triangle wave C4 on the Daily chart. That would mean we should expect a wave 2 type of retracement from here.
So there are various possibilities. What is evident is that we just saw a 5 wave impulse wave down and that we are expecting a correction or a reversal from the low of 202.96.
Next step would be to use the FIB Projection tool. The A or 1 then B or 2 then the C or 3 Extention will give you the first indication.
But if this move up somehow shows a 3 wave structured A or 1, then we know that that is an A definitely as no wave 1 is 3 wave structured. Expect a continuation of the Bear trend.
However if the 1st leg is 5 wave in structure, then watch out for the signs .
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Mar 13, 2008 9:26am
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#2129
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 13, 2008 9:19am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar55375_1.gifpipchaser
Expect the unexpected
Member Since Dec 2007
95 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif thank you
Thank you EG. I'll watch carefully the movements in the next period.
Good luck http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
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#2130
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 13, 2008 11:05am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar55375_1.gifpipchaser
Expect the unexpected
Member Since Dec 2007
95 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif UJ weekly chart
We have a descending triangle on weekly UJ chart. Triangle are usual patterns for W4 but previous wave is too short to be W3. Is it possible to be W2?
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94887&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205420697
Mar 13, 2008 11:48am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar55375_1.gifpipchaser
Expect the unexpected
Member Since Dec 2007
95 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif H1 U/J
This is the chart for H1 U/J. According to my chart we are now in W2 from extended W3. EG there is something tin my chart that I couldn't fix. Time for W12 is smaller than time W14. In terms of pips counting, Wave W11 are aprox equal to W15 .
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94904&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205423227
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #2132
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 13, 2008 12:02pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
as an exercise...... this is how I would label it
however, my concern is that it does not follow the rule or guideline of alternation.
will look into it again tomorrow.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94912&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205424248
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#2133
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 13, 2008 12:13pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar55375_1.gifpipchaser
Expect the unexpected
Member Since Dec 2007
95 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
as an exercise...... this is how I would label it
however, my concern is that it does not follow the rule or guideline of alternation.
will look into it again tomorrow.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Ok, thanks a lot, I'm going to label again and discuss tomorrow.
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#2134
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 13, 2008 6:03pm
TheCable
Member
Member Since Mar 2007
110 Posts
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pipchaser wave 2 should not be a triangle.This is a rule of the Elliott Wave Counting.I`m speaking about the monthly analysis u posted.I'm also considering this to be a triangle,but as B of a A-B-C correction.If this scenario is right we're exactly in the E wave which is very dangerous,because it makes very offen false breaks and when we speak about monthly chart those false breaks could extend to 600-700 pips or more.
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#2135
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 13, 2008 9:55pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY
Reserved for charts
1631 PHI 031408
........
added 5th chart to show potential breakout level
1652 PHI
Chart #6
exited all short trades already and letting the long trades recover.
but ready to re enter again if it goes down to 203.52.. do not take these trades with me. if ever.... just check your wave counts. I am still experimenting on combining different methods with EW
1704 PHI
Other likely targets using other systems are
Daily Pivot @ 204.55
Weekly Pivot @ 205.90
Previous Days Hig @ 206.10
Murrey Math Strong Resistance Level @ 206.25
1846 PHI 031408
Chart # 7
I have entered new short trades having increased profit thru recovery earlier.
Entered a bit early because I had to leave again. anyway, I am back now so looking for new opportunity to enter new trade most likely for a Buy Trade.
Check out the Double Bottom @ 203.68
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95114&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205483063 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95115&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205483063 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95116&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205483088 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95117&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205483088
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95120&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205483457 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95121&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205484335 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95133&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205491476
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Mar 14, 2008 6:44am
Mar 13, 2008 10:16pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY
Reserved for Charts
1908 PHI 031408
Chart 1
Price is ranging more like a parallelchannel likened to wave B. So most likely ready to Breakout from this channel range.
Less risky to enter after the breakout.
also exercising to read stochastics in different timeframes.
1946 PHI 031408
Chart #2
have unhedge too early. but most of stochastics were overbought. bit my nails and waited.
current scenario fits aFLAT wB. so expecting a wC @ FE 100 @ 204.26 or FE 161.8 @ 204.92
Chart # 3
on the 15 min chart. Projection levels for wC end
Chart #4
Looking at the 30 min chart, it would seem that we will be facing a running FLAT corrective wave as FE projections of the internal stricture of WC would only have a maximum of 204.92 projection which on the 30 min chart is just around FE 75.00 @ approx. 205. This would not make it beyond the end of wA on the 30min chart causing it to be a running FLAT corrective wave.
However, if wC on the 5min wave becomes complex, then we can see higher levels to end wC on the 5min chart.
2026 PHI 031408
Chart #5
Shows Double TOP and Double Bottom prior to the breakout to the down side for a FLAT wave B
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95136&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205492571 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95143&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205495293 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95144&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205495293 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95145&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205495322
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95152&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205497486
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Mar 14, 2008 8:24am
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #2137
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 14, 2008 12:32am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar55375_1.gifpipchaser
Expect the unexpected
Member Since Dec 2007
95 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheCable http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
pipchaser wave 2 should not be a triangle.This is a rule of the Elliott Wave Counting.I`m speaking about the monthly analysis u posted.I'm also considering this to be a triangle,but as B of a A-B-C correction.If this scenario is right we're exactly in the E wave which is very dangerous,because it makes very offen false breaks and when we speak about monthly chart those false breaks could extend to 600-700 pips or more.
Yes, that's why I'm a little bit confused there, but I'm not taking trades based on weekly charts so I'll just watch development of this waves in weekly charts.
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#2138
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 14, 2008 12:44am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar55375_1.gifpipchaser
Expect the unexpected
Member Since Dec 2007
95 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif charts
Hi EG. Keep posting. I'm reading all the post, especially those who are reserved for charts. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Good luck
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#2139
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 14, 2008 8:03am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD
chart
2047 PHI
chart #5
took that scalp. entered a bit early but scalped the pullback. was a quick one. more pips downwards. looking for a re entry for my short
although, I should have stayed on as I think this is beginning of w3 within w3.
2054 PHI
another opportunity maybe...
2.0212 means resumption of downward move
2108 PHI
chart #7
watching out for this new opportunity
2212 PHI
nearly got butchered on this re entry.
was able to recover and got out fine.
was not hedging this like gbpjpy. looks like I would need to focus on just 1 pair for scalping. was having difficulty monitoring price movement as I watch these thru various system. Priority would be GBPJPY.
Not unless I see a long term trade on GBPUSD for example
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95146&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205496221 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95147&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205496768 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95148&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205496768 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95149&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205496786
Attached Imageshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95157&stc=1&d=1205499007 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95158&stc=1&d=1205499007 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95161&stc=1&d=1205499669
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Mar 14, 2008 12:08pm
Mar 14, 2008 9:17am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY
5min chart Target HIT
2217 PHI
Currently all trades are hedged with an opportunity to earn partial as it goes up while the rest of the longs will try to recover.
Overall, net situation is still in profit. and still have substantial margin to trade on a smaller scale than the hedge trades
if price goes up , then there is an opportunity to earn while if it goes down, everything is hedged and losses will be minimal due to the difference in SWAP fees between Long and Short Trades.
Even though price has gone lower than the low @ end of w5 or w51 (202.960), now at 202.86, I am still inclined to think that we will still see the actual wave C UP still
will not be adding any new trades now. leaving all trades on over the weekend.
next post will most likely be towards the end of the weekend or on Sunday.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95171&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205500629
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Mar 14, 2008 12:19pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #2141
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 14, 2008 4:30pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD
GBPUSD
with the coming end of what seems to be wave C,
a possible 5 wave structure is expected to be seen moving UP.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
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__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Mar 14, 2008 5:10pm
Mar 15, 2008 2:00am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD EW Analysis
I was looking at the GBPUSD today and this is how I see it going from here. I will be posting charts in a series as I studied how to label them. I will not be able to post the explanations yet and details as I have to leave in a short while. But I am posting it anyway for those interested to look into them and maybe be able to draw out some conclusion as to what I am driving at.
I will have 1 chart per post to be able to explain details in each chart
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Chart 1
PS. 1033 PHI 031608
Had to change position of purple 1 and 2 inside C3
Details:
Note that my explanations below are more for the newbies who are just starting out on EW . This will be too elementary for those who are practicing EW. I will try to explain why I label them as such in as detailed as possible so I can show those interested to learn EW that for as long as we know the concepts, we can use these as guidelines in analizing price movement.
Daily chart where we see a 3 wave movement down as ABC followed by a 5 wave move up then 3 wave move down which does not go lower than end of C
So we label this as A or 1 then B or 2 all Purple. Do not mind the Big 1 and 2 Purple. I will explain later why I came to that conclusion which is actually the purpose of this exercise. I will present all the possibilities I see then we eliminate them 1 by 1 thru reasoning using the EW rules and guidelines as the waves develop. more like a process of elimination.
Ok... notice how the C wave was labelled. 1st 5 impulsive waves was found to have ended at C1. followed by a retracement to C2. then a new move downwards which exceeded the previous end of wave A.
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__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Mar 16, 2008 12:48am
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 15, 2008 2:01am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD Chart #2
GBPUSD Chart #2
PS. 1033 PHI 031608
Had to change position of purple 1 and 2 inside C3
Details:
Initially I was planning to do just a video presentation explaining what is happening on my charts as that is faster to do than to type my explanation. also on the video I can point and show in a step by step manner what I do on my charts. However, the camtasia presentations I initially made came up to big files which can not be uploaded to each post. So I have to go back to typing.
Anyway... on the chart belowI have Expanded this to the 4 hour chart so we can see the subdivisions in the waves on the daily chart.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95489&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205634441
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Mar 16, 2008 12:40am
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#2144
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 15, 2008 2:02am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD Chart #3
GBPUSD Chart #3
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95361&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205560935
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#2145
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 15, 2008 2:04am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD Chart #4
GBPUSD Chart #4
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95362&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205560987
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Mar 15, 2008 2:05am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD Chart #5
GBPUSD Chart #5
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95363&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205561104
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #2147
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 15, 2008 2:05am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD Chart #6
GBPUSD Chart #6
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95364&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205561146
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#2148
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 15, 2008 2:06am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD Chart #7
GBPUSD Chart #7
Attached Imageshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95365&stc=1&d=1205561184
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#2149
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 15, 2008 2:07am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD Chart #8
GBPUSD Chart #8
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95366&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205561219
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#2150
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 15, 2008 2:07am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD Chart #9
GBPUSD Chart #9
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95367&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205561259
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#2151
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 15, 2008 2:08am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD Chart #10
GBPUSD Chart #10
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95370&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205561676
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#2152
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 15, 2008 2:15am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD Chart #12
GBPUSD Chart #12
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95371&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205561727
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS