Nov 24, 2007 2:09am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,792 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Hi marketwavez.
I have a different perspective with respect to the USDJPY Count as you will see in the charts below.
I am still unclear as to the complexity of the wave 4 on the monthly. Downward trendline was breached and retraced.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=68378&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195888017 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=68379&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195888017 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=68380&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195888085 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=68381&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195888085
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=68382&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195888113 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=68383&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195888113
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Nov 24, 2007 3:12am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,792 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY
Looking at the 4 hour chart and studying the ending diagonal pattern....
this looks like the diagonal pattern may not breach that upper down trendline afterall.
Based on the description of an ending diagonal triangle wave 5, all waves are expected to be in 3 wave form.
So now I potentially see price on the 4 hour chart to range till it hits the upper downtrendline then makes a zigzag as it goes down the point of the ending diagonal triangle
Before we can expect any break out with a substantial move to the upside which could then be considered as a trend reversal.
Being the end of a big wave c down of the corrective wave 4 down on the Daily, I then would consider that the GBPJPY is back on an UPTREND from that low.
Targets would be
a truncated 5th wave UP below previous 251.32 previous HIGH
or the FE 100.0 @ 259.85 which is the level at which C=A on the monthly chart. But of course that would take months to most probably over a year to achieve.
But then again, anything can still happen through the course of time. These are basically just long term forecasts which needs to be reviewed at least every week to see if they still apply to what is happening in the market.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=68384&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195891750 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=68385&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195891750 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=68386&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195891777 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=68387&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195891777
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=68388&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195891806 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=68389&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195891806 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=68390&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195891822
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Nov 24, 2007 3:18am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,792 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Here is somethingelse to think about
Head and shoulders in relation to the EW and Fibonacci studies on Price
Here is where I see a conflict. A head and shoulder Pattern sees a breach to the lower side for a longer term down trend.
But based on the EW Count, Price is expected to potentially breakout of the upper down-trendline of that ending diagonal triangle.
These are I think 2 opposite expectations if I am not mistaken.
We will thus have to wait for price to develop and see which one it proves right.
Another thing I noticed is that if the ending diagonal triangle works out, then it also falls in the range of 61.8 - 78.6% FIB Projection for wave C based on its relationship to wave A.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=68391&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195892288 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=68394&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195896155
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Nov 26, 2007 3:13am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,792 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Looking for a wave 2 retracement or a wave 5 throwover to complete the ending Diagonal Triangle and
See the Trend reversal.
But could all change favoring the continued move upside once the upper downward resistance trendline of the diagonal triangle is breached.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=68668&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1196064755
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1226
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 26, 2007 7:09am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar20353_2.gifkevmcfoster
Jai Shewaramani
Member Since Sep 2006
82 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
hi just thought i would post another possibility of EW count for 4 hour gbpjpy
Incase I'm wrong, plz let me knw.
kevin
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=68699&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1196078925
__________________
It is better to be approximately right than precisely wrong
To be the Best, you have to beat the Rest!!!
It doesn't matter what you know, it's how you use it...
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1227
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 26, 2007 3:58pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,792 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Potential Moves
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=68816&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1196110678 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=68817&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1196110678
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Thank you EG...I have to say that you are doing a wonderful job. And I'm learning quite a bit from you and am hoping to continue learning from your charts and explanation. Thank you for this.
Also, just wanted to add to your potential moves chart...plz rectify me if im wrong.
Thank you once again
kevin :-)
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=68872&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1196116615
__________________
It is better to be approximately right than precisely wrong
To be the Best, you have to beat the Rest!!!
It doesn't matter what you know, it's how you use it...
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1230
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 26, 2007 5:48pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,792 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Updated Potential Moves.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=68879&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1196117203 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=68880&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1196117203 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=68881&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1196117229 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=68882&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1196117229
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Nov 26, 2007 8:47pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
update scenario 2
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=68923&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1196128007 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=68924&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1196128007 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=68925&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1196128029
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1233
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 26, 2007 8:52pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
update for scenario 1
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=68926&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1196128340 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=68927&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1196128340 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=68928&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1196128357
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1234
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 26, 2007 9:30pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Barrier Triangle for a Bearish Continuation and
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=68933&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1196130600 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=68935&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1196130844
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Nov 28, 2007 10:31pm
daytek
Member
Member Since Jan 2007
57 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Update post 1205
Here is a little update of the prior charts...
as for tomorrow anything i have 2 possible scenarios, lets see how it plays out
230.25 area up to 231.20 would be my first potential reversal zone.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=69490&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1196306934 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=69491&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1196306934
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1239
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 29, 2007 12:59am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar4221_1.gifniceguy777
Infractions Overload
Member Since Oct 2005
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/2kt.gif305 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by daytek http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
It's all about possibilities...you simply chart various possible scenarios and you trade the one that suits you the best with your money management, if you know how to scale positions, nothing can beat Ew...but again this is just my opinion.
Well, actually, no. But then, you probably haven't seen the Framework that I am talking about.
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/big_grin.gif
Come to a webcast and I can explain more - as I did to the fib guy at EWI, who agreed with what I was saying...
__________________
The framework is there; we just have to work on our frame of mind.
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1240
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 29, 2007 4:51am
money
Multiple Usernames
Member Since Jul 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/1kt.gif106 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif USD/JPY
check it out
http://www.trading-fx.si/fx/sloanaliza.htm
Wish you nice trading and many pips
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1241
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 29, 2007 5:41am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
GBPJPY Update for Potential Direction
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=69566&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1196332878 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=69567&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1196333055
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Nov 29, 2007 10:05am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
possible scenario
SL @b 225.35
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=69626&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1196348569 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=69627&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1196348569 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=69628&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1196348602 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=69629&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1196348602
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=69631&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1196348633 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=69632&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1196348633
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1243
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 30, 2007 3:38am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY Wave 3
Based on my chart and EW Count, GBPJPY is poised to unleash its power during the NY session onwards today.
Point 0 @ 225.70
Point 1 @ 227.16
Point 2 @ 226.11, 225.90
Point 3 @ 227.83
Point 4 I believe went into an expanded flat corrective wavea nd ended @ 227.11
Now Wave 4 is stil expanding and looks like producing a Symmetrical triangle.
So we probably have an expanded flat and a symmetrical triangle for this wave 4.
As it is still expanding sideways now on the 15min chart, it could be ripe to shoot up after NY session opens.
Sometimes when you look at your charts for too long, you get to see some distinct patterns like this one and you will be able to (like in my case now) take a wild guess on what is next to happen. And with the help of EW, I think we have a very good chance.
Happy trading everyone.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1244
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 30, 2007 3:45am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by niceguy777 http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Well, actually, no. But then, you probably haven't seen the Framework that I am talking about.
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/big_grin.gif
Come to a webcast and I can explain more - as I did to the fib guy at EWI, who agreed with what I was saying...
Would you be nice enough to go by your name and start a thread where you can discuss this Framework you are talking about?
But should you decide or prefer to discuss it here, I would be honoured to host that in this thread.
However if you are out to entice people to your webcast to lure them into paying for a course, I think you should do that on a different thread.
Many here write in this forum to share and learn from each other FOR FREE.
I know you have not placed your web site link here. So I googled the topic and I ended up in your webside. Now if that was not your website and you are not trying to lure people to your webcast so that they enroll in your sessions for a fee, then please accept my apology.
I in particular am interested in the Framework you have hinted. I use FIBS and many different ways in my trading system. So, learning something new from you would really be a good addition to my trading analysis.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1245
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 30, 2007 4:49am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar20353_2.gifkevmcfoster
Jai Shewaramani
Member Since Sep 2006
82 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Hi EG
I wanted to thank you again for teaching all of us the method of EW.
I have been learning from you and doin some analysis on my own too, and initiating trades on my mini account...so far has been profitable..as u can see that in the chart below. (The profit is in terms of points)
Thank you and keep up the good work
Kevin http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=69851&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1196416133
__________________
It is better to be approximately right than precisely wrong
To be the Best, you have to beat the Rest!!!
It doesn't matter what you know, it's how you use it...
Nov 30, 2007 8:54am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar20353_2.gifkevmcfoster
Jai Shewaramani
Member Since Sep 2006
82 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Hi EG
can u plz confirm if this wave count for 30 mins is correct..
thnx
kevin http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=69919&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1196430879
__________________
It is better to be approximately right than precisely wrong
To be the Best, you have to beat the Rest!!!
It doesn't matter what you know, it's how you use it...
Nov 30, 2007 5:33pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar20353_2.gifkevmcfoster
Jai Shewaramani
Member Since Sep 2006
82 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Just thought i'll post another possibility...this is for eur/jpy, but is also true for gbp/jpy as they have similar movements...
Comments welcome
kev
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=70012&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1196462184
__________________
It is better to be approximately right than precisely wrong
To be the Best, you have to beat the Rest!!!
It doesn't matter what you know, it's how you use it...
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1259
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 30, 2007 5:37pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar4221_1.gifniceguy777
Infractions Overload
Member Since Oct 2005
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/2kt.gif305 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Phew. I'm sooooooooo glad I don't have to try and figure all that stuff out! http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/surprise.gif
__________________
The framework is there; we just have to work on our frame of mind.
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1260
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 30, 2007 10:36pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Hello Everyone.
I hope everyone made money this past week.
Kevin., thank you for sharing your charts here.
niceguy777... yes EW is a bit complex and it may not be for everyone. I almost gave up on it had it not been for my 6 year old son.
I was so immersed with trading this past days that I did not see the actual pattern developing yesterday on the GBPJPY.
But after seeing Kevin's chart on EURJPY, I pulled up a GBPJPY chart to see if I can duplicate it. And what do I see on a blank chart?.........
Attached is what I just saw and wanted to share with all of you.
Let us make money next week for the Christmas Season and beyond....
Remember to share the blessings.....
Happy Weekend Everyone and Good trading for the Days to Come
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=70034&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1196480932
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Nov 30, 2007 10:51pm Reason: attach chart and correct spellings
Dec 1, 2007 4:48am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
This is what is nice about the weekend.
One or I get to relax and see a non moving price chart http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/big_grin.gif
I am attaching some more charts to support the view that GBPJPY will see a slight downward move this Asia Monday Open then Develops into an EXTENDED WAVE 5 going up for the minimum @ 238.67
But because GBPJPY is a very volatile pair, IMHO, 238.67 is just the minimum which is the 161.8% of the wave0 to wave 3 length, I expect it to go much higher.
Beyond 238.67, do a trailing stop.
But if you follow Elliott Wave Structures, then you will have a better chance of seeing a wave terminate.
May we all have a Wonderful Christmas
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
PS. Note that I set my SL from 300 to 600 pips for this Pair.http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/winking.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=70063&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1196502267 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=70064&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1196502267
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Dec 2, 2007 8:50pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Good Morning Everyone.
I hope you have banked some of those profits from the initial down move this morning.
I did not get the Australian open to the Asian Open and the first max down of the asian. was in a little before the asian to avoid the negative swap but hesitated to pull trigger when it stalled at wave 3 of wave 3 down.
but banked when it went down again.
now watching if this is now on its way up for the wave 4 to 228 then down to maybe 225.96 or to the daily Pivot to finish off this flat correction.
Then we all ride this baby up the clouds.....
let us watch.
Good Harvest Everyone.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=70273&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1196646462 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=70274&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1196646462
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1269
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 2, 2007 8:59pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
update
Is it really possible to walk the price at almost each turn down to the 1min or 5min or the 15 min charts?
many find it easy around the 4hr and Daily Charts. But they consider lower than 4hours as mostly noise.
Let us see if we can be better listeners here.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=70276&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1196647058
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1270
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 2, 2007 9:07pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
next time hold on to your wave 3.
I banked mine too early. was too eager to have some profits for the morning after missing the first one.
Now I have to wait for the Ride up. rather than enter a new down move again.
Nursing the 2 opposite trades from last Friday. I hope to close the short close to breakeven before The ride UP.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1271
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 2, 2007 9:16pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
could be this one too.
I suggest that we wait for it to go up to 228 if it does then make a pull back for around 61.8% at least .....
then I will enter a small long Position..
will then wait for another signal to enter another long for the ride to the clouds. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=70277&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1196648151
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Dec 3, 2007 4:24am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
I was wrong to assume that that was the bottom.
Anyway, we have to give room for this set backs. Rather than a narrow SL, mine is at 300-600.
Attached is new proposed EW Count or structure.
I will be able to close my old short trade from last week earlier than I expected.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=70317&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1196673825
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Dec 3, 2007 3:44pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar20353_2.gifkevmcfoster
Jai Shewaramani
Member Since Sep 2006
82 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Jus an update for the 4 hour chart...
EG let me knw if ive counted wrong
thnx
I hope u dont mind me posting charts on ur thread http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=70436&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1196714670
__________________
It is better to be approximately right than precisely wrong
To be the Best, you have to beat the Rest!!!
It doesn't matter what you know, it's how you use it...
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1286
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 3, 2007 7:40pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Hi Kevin.
Your uptrend count is most probably correct.
Now I do not remember where I got that leading diagonal triangle for my wave 1 when all I can see now is just a channel instead of that diagonal triangle I initially thought I saw.
Yellow B and C though are still different from mine.
BTW, Keep Posting your charts. I will also learn from your charts and your counts if you do not mind.
This thread is for everyone who wants to learn and share what they know about EW Analysis. So anyone is free to post their charts here.
We can all learn EW together.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=70478&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1196728800
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1287
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 3, 2007 8:22pm
daytek
Member
Member Since Jan 2007
57 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Let's if this holds
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=70488&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1196731263 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=70489&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1196731263
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1288
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 3, 2007 8:35pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar20353_2.gifkevmcfoster
Jai Shewaramani
Member Since Sep 2006
82 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Thank you EG
That's very generous of you. I too am learning a lot from you. Together we all can try to eliminate mistakes in EW counting.
I was trying to figure out where I should open a long position (I already opened 1), so I dropped down to the 1 hour chart. Wave 4 possibily might not be over...seems like a zigzag in the making. Seems like a 5-3-5 structure. Possible wave 4 termination between 225.00 - 226.00
Awaiting your views
P.S. Can wave 2 retrace EXACTLY to the origin of wave 1? I didn't find any material that doesn't allow the retrace of wave 2 to the exact point of origin of wave 1, If it can, then probably the 1 and 2 of the current forming wave c is valid
BTW, the "C" in yellow is actually supp to be "C" in blue
Kevinhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=70490&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1196732125
__________________
It is better to be approximately right than precisely wrong
To be the Best, you have to beat the Rest!!!
It doesn't matter what you know, it's how you use it...
Dec 3, 2007 10:23pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar20353_2.gifkevmcfoster
Jai Shewaramani
Member Since Sep 2006
82 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Jus curious to see if this might be the possible correction pattern...
Phew!!! i better get some sleep http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/rolling_eyes.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=70504&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1196738564
__________________
It is better to be approximately right than precisely wrong
To be the Best, you have to beat the Rest!!!
It doesn't matter what you know, it's how you use it...
Last edited by kevmcfoster, Dec 3, 2007 10:35pm
Dec 4, 2007 5:38am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar20353_2.gifkevmcfoster
Jai Shewaramani
Member Since Sep 2006
82 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
So far so good...Going as planned
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=70541&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1196764663
__________________
It is better to be approximately right than precisely wrong
To be the Best, you have to beat the Rest!!!
It doesn't matter what you know, it's how you use it...
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1293
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 4, 2007 8:09am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar20353_2.gifkevmcfoster
Jai Shewaramani
Member Since Sep 2006
82 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Cool...just a final 5th wave to go before we head back up...Possible targets for long 228.50(in case of a truncated 5th wave), but ideally should go to 231.50
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=70555&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1196773733
__________________
It is better to be approximately right than precisely wrong
To be the Best, you have to beat the Rest!!!
It doesn't matter what you know, it's how you use it...
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1294
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 4, 2007 5:17pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar20353_2.gifkevmcfoster
Jai Shewaramani
Member Since Sep 2006
82 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Jus waiting to see if this might be the end of wave 5 of Wave C of WAVE 4.
Thou the downside (if any) should be limited to 225.00.
Also keeping options open for possible Double-Threes complex correction, preferably a flat or a triangle
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=70636&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1196806569
__________________
It is better to be approximately right than precisely wrong
To be the Best, you have to beat the Rest!!!
It doesn't matter what you know, it's how you use it...
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1295
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 4, 2007 5:49pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
I think you are doing Great Kevin.
Below is my Revised Count on 1 Hour chart.
I am more inclined with the Blue Option 3 Count.
I am experimenting on ignoring wave 4 overlaps with wave 1 if it is due to a spike.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=70648&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1196808872
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Dec 4, 2007 6:00pm Reason: Replaced chart
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1296
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 4, 2007 5:57pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar20353_2.gifkevmcfoster
Jai Shewaramani
Member Since Sep 2006
82 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
I think you are doing Great Kevin.
Below is my Revised Count on 1 Hour chart.
I am more inclined with the Blue Option 3 Count.
I am experimenting on ignoring wave 4 overlaps with wave 1 if it is due to a spike.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Thank you EG
I think you forgot to add your charthttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/big_grin.gif
__________________
It is better to be approximately right than precisely wrong
To be the Best, you have to beat the Rest!!!
It doesn't matter what you know, it's how you use it...
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1297
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 4, 2007 6:20pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/big_grin.gif Kevin ... I actually was in the process of replacing the earlier chart I posted with the text .
Had to replace it to show a better FIT for the Magenta Channel to parallel the lines from the side of the wave 2 and the wave 4.
]
Trying to show an example as per textbook that when wave 0 1 and 2 are available, you draw a channel based on the wave 0 and 1 side to see potential resistance for wave 3.
And when potential wave 3 has probably ended and normally with a spike then followed by a wave 4 formation, then we adjust the channel to use wave 2 and wave 4 ends as the basis for the parallel lines against the wave 1 end.
Normally we would see that wave 3 as an overthrow.
Wave 5 is then perceived to reach the other side of the channel from where wave 4 ended.
Of course wave 5 can still make for an overthrow on that channel or may not even reach that other side of the channel.
I would normally watch out for the wave equality also as wave 5 develops especially if wave 3 is extended which would be the case if I select Option 3 Wave count.
Which brings me to watch watch out for a possible wave 5 failure that could terminate @ 229.19 both satisfying a wave 5 failure and the guideline for wave equality.
Still, I am open to seeing GBPJPY go further up as there are also cases where both wave 3 and wave 5 can both be extended.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=70653&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1196810251
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1298
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 4, 2007 11:11pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Let me share what I have come up with on my chart and explain to you the details.
Below is a revised chart to show more of the details that I found before and also the ones I am seeing now.
Anyway, let me explain the details on my chart.
1st. There are the 3 options for the wave counts on my GBPJPY Chart.
a. I am more inclined with the Blue Wave Count Option.
b. Using the FIB Extention tool on MT4, I have wave 3 at FE 161.8 - 200.0 range which fits what I have iften observed with GBPJPY.
c. sub wave 4 of the wave 3 blue is quite deep which is a bit over 50% retracement of sub wave 3 (magenta FIB Retracement). Note I ignored the overlap of sub wave 4 into sub wave 1 inside wave 3.
d. sub wave 5 of wave 3 Blue then terminates just a litlle above sub wave 3.
Next I drew the Aquamarine channel to illustrate a Channeling which is happening here. (Actually I was testing the Guideline on Prechter's Book). Here I initially drew a channel using wave 0 1 and 2 with wave 0 and 2 trendline as the basis of one side of the channel while the otherside was banked on wave 1 end.
Then I was looking for the wave 3 projection together with the projection using the FIB extention tool. Although it has been noted that wave 3 almost always makes a throwover.
The same channel ( I just realized now ) was supposed to be used to project wave 4.
With the following features:
a. channelling guideline,
b. rule of alternation ( wave 2 was a sideways expansion so expecting wave 4 to be zigzag) ,
c. wave equality C=A for zigzag waves
d. wave 4 rule on overlapping with wave 1 ( with leniency on my part here due to spikes and volatility of this pair )
Now, we have not hit the lower side of the Aquamarine channel for our wave 4. So there could still be a possibility of price still coming down to kiss that channel or maybe not.
Incase it does not, then we should see GBPJPY climbing now with still a possibility of the retrace towards this bottom channel side for the wave 2 before really climbing any higher.
Fib Tools on my chart:
Turquoise Fib Extentioon tool is use to project the wave 3 and wave 5. wave 3 was in the FE 161.8 - 200.0 range. I would be looking at wave 5 to be in the 261.8 - 300.0 range or a possibility of the FE 425 level.
Magenta Fib Retracement tool is to illustrate the 50% retracement of sub wave 4 from the length of sub wave 3 of wave 3.
Yellow Fib extention tool was used to project the wave c of wave 4 Magenta . Although I preferred to use the retracement guideline for wave 4 being between 50-61.8% of wave 3 though normally at 38% or even 23.6% only if the prevailing maintrend is quite strong.
Blue Fib Extention Tool was used to project potential end of Blue wave 4
Red Fib Retracement Tool was to illustrate the wave equality where Magenta wave 5 was equal to Magenta wave 1 of the Blue wave 3. in this case it exceeded a little bit.
Also you will see the 3 Magenta Horizontal lines
a. Top is Possible support of a previous Resistance based on the wave 1 Magenta
b. middle as you go down is another potential support based on the wave b of Blue wave 2
c. and lastly at the bottom is the top of the Blue wave 1 which sets the limit of the lowest that wave 4 could go down to.
Broken yellow lines were support and resistance trendlines.
I am open to any constructive criticisms for the chart I just posted here
EGhttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/images/smilies/smile.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=70689&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1196827759
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1299
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 4, 2007 11:40pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Potential retrace now for GBPJPY wave 2 down towards previous low or arounf 50 to 76.4% of wave 1
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Imageshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=70693&stc=1&d=1196829614
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1300
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 5, 2007 12:09am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
updated charts
Attached Imageshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=70701&stc=1&d=1196831288 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=70702&stc=1&d=1196831288
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1301
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 5, 2007 12:30am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Caution.. though for EW.
Sometimes a wave 4 correction retraces the wave 3 by 23.6% only when the main trend is very strong (but normally 38.2% or the 50-61.8%)
Now I am not that sure with wave 2 if that also applies . But I have not seen that happen yet.
So what I would do is enter at 23.6% and another one at 50-61.8%.
I bring this up because I already see a 5 wave structure on the 1 minute chart and I see a pin bar on the 15 min chart.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1302
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 5, 2007 1:59am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
possible unfolding if it does retrace now.
but could encounter some support at
Daily Pivot 226.63
Weekly Pivot 226.48
100 sma 15min 226.38
other than that it is free to retrace down to 50-100% of the previous rise.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Imageshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=70716&stc=1&d=1196837926
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1303
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 5, 2007 2:31am
carforum
Member
Member Since May 2006
35 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif long time no see
hi el, long time no see~
I want to know why your fib extension is listing the price also... How can I set this?
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1304
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 5, 2007 2:38am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Previous assumption may have been too early.
I actually entered a short from 226.82 which I thought was initially the top of a sub wave 1.
then after seeing the 1st 5 wave structure down entered a Long trade.
So I had 2 opposing trades. However I exited the Long trade at around 10 pip loss as it went up ( that includes the 20 pip spread for my broker ).
Anyway, I still have my 2 original long trades while nursing the short trade. exited the new long trade for a 10 pip loss.( which could have been in profit by now with that rally on the 5min chart.
I should have maintained as originally planned since the main trend was Bullish. ( just another lesson learned.) Anyway I was still looking for a retrace towards that previous low and we are expecting a bearish main trend soon.
I would describe this as a very crude hedge taht I apply in my trades.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Imageshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=70723&stc=1&d=1196840241
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Dec 5, 2007 4:03am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Could be Ouch for many there.
Almost included me as I entered at 50% retrace. I should have stuck to my gun and pulled trigger at 78.6 which is more often its wave 2 retrace if not the 86% level.
Whoooowww. That was NASTY. It meant that it was not a wave 2 retrace but looks like a final wave 5 down?
Now back to nursing 3 Long trades. hhhhmmmmmm
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Imageshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=70748&stc=1&d=1196844978
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1313
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 5, 2007 4:42am
pips4life
Member
Member Since Apr 2007
195 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Yech. Made the same mistake twice tonight. Once again, I didn't pay attention to a news event for GBP. I tried a small long with a modest S/L just BEFORE the news, and again, it was slightly negative for GBP which promptly dropped GU some more and also GJ. I would have GUESSED the news would be below expectations and stayed out of longs at the very least until after the news, had I been paying attention.
Should have gone to bed when I said I was! http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/surprise.gif
Oh well... still a pretty good day overall. G'nite.
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1314
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 5, 2007 5:19am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Ok I got slapped by this beast.
Stopped out on a A LONG TRADE while I manually closed the otehr 2 after it breached that wave 1 end. All for a loss.
No problem. There will be other trades to make. Just have to ensure that account does not get wiped out. Apply MM.
Looks like a sideways movement on the 5min chart which may be a wave 4 consolidation to be followed by another dip for the wave 5.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1315
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 5, 2007 5:44am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar20353_2.gifkevmcfoster
Jai Shewaramani
Member Since Sep 2006
82 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Oh well!!! you win some, you lose some
This fall has forced me to re-evaluate my count. Wave 3, which I originally thought was an extended wave, turns out to be an ordinary Wave 3 without extensions.
However, i think its safe to assume that we are experiencing a double-threes complex correction.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=70769&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1196851371
__________________
It is better to be approximately right than precisely wrong
To be the Best, you have to beat the Rest!!!
It doesn't matter what you know, it's how you use it...
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1316
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 5, 2007 1:22pm
daytek
Member
Member Since Jan 2007
57 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Update post #1287
Now the question is, potential reverse zone 1? or prz 2? first one is stated in the chart, the second one is 222.20-222.00 area
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=70868&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1196878907
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1317
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 5, 2007 2:45pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar20353_2.gifkevmcfoster
Jai Shewaramani
Member Since Sep 2006
82 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
good work daytek
you won the battle, but the war is yet on http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/winking.gifhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/big_grin.gif
__________________
It is better to be approximately right than precisely wrong
To be the Best, you have to beat the Rest!!!
It doesn't matter what you know, it's how you use it...
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1318
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 6, 2007 5:15am
money
Multiple Usernames
Member Since Jul 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/1kt.gif106 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif analyses
I updated analyses for USD/JPY and for GBP/JPY at:
http://www.trading-fx.si/fx/sloanaliza.htm
nice trading, Grega
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1319
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 6, 2007 2:34pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar20353_2.gifkevmcfoster
Jai Shewaramani
Member Since Sep 2006
82 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Trying a new count (thanx to daytek)
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=71161&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1196969588
__________________
It is better to be approximately right than precisely wrong
To be the Best, you have to beat the Rest!!!
It doesn't matter what you know, it's how you use it...
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1320
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 7, 2007 5:10am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar20353_2.gifkevmcfoster
Jai Shewaramani
Member Since Sep 2006
82 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Not sure what this wave is yet
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=71305&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1197022172
__________________
It is better to be approximately right than precisely wrong
To be the Best, you have to beat the Rest!!!
It doesn't matter what you know, it's how you use it...
Dec 7, 2007 10:47am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar20353_2.gifkevmcfoster
Jai Shewaramani
Member Since Sep 2006
82 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Looks like the wave "a" or "C" is over...we had a throwover which should be good enough to confirm it
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=71370&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1197042391
__________________
It is better to be approximately right than precisely wrong
To be the Best, you have to beat the Rest!!!
It doesn't matter what you know, it's how you use it...
Last edited by kevmcfoster, Dec 7, 2007 10:57am
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1322
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 7, 2007 11:32am
daytek
Member
Member Since Jan 2007
57 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Hello mr foster, i agree with you, we need further confirmation to actually see what we are trading right here.
I have 2 possible scenarios.
one is in red and the other is in blue.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=71377&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1197045104 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=71378&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1197045104
Dec 13, 2007 2:47pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
I have been experimenting on the EURUSD lately and here is what I have for now.
Wave A down from 1.4966 was shown to be in 3 waves which I am now inclined to follow. Since A was in 3 waves, then B is expected to be a Flat, Expanded FLAT or a Triangle.
In initially I was thinking that this Wave B (Purple) would be a triangle. But now I am inclined to believe that it would be a Flat or expanded flat.
Then let us dissect the Purple wave B structure. sub wave A green of this wave B purp[le is again in 3 waves. So I would look for a triangle or a FLAT or expanded flat for the sub wave B Green.
But sub wave B green looks more like an expanded flat now waiting to finish the wave 4 up going to the 38.2% retracement @ 1.4639 or towards the 50% retracement @ 1.4658. Higher than 50% or 1.4658 does not seem possible as this would overlap with the wave 1 down. Sometimes though, it is possible that wave 4 retraces only 23.6% of wave 3 So wave 4 may end @ 1.4616 or before reaching 1.4639 which is the 38.2% retracement of wave 3.
So after this retracement, I am looking at EURUSD coming down again towards 1.4565 which is the 161.8% wave C projection for an expanded flat. If it goes lower than 1.4565, then it exceeds what seems to be the maximum wave C projection of an expaned flat, so this wave count will need to be re assessed if ever.
Then I would look forward to seeing EURUSD rally toward 1.4966 to develp wave C green and complete the Wave B Purple to finish the Wave B of a FLAT corrective wave.
However, there is still that p[ossibility that we may see new highs and still be in a wave B purple of this corrective wave if this develops into an expanded FLAT overall Wave 4.
So for the Waver B purple targets, the following levels would be watched:
1.4966 Previous high
1.5087 @ 127.6%
1.5132 @ 138.2% or maybe still towards
1.5238 @ 161.8% extention
All of the above are assumptions I am making trying to use as many EW tools I think there is available to see or more like preparing myself of possible scenarios EURUSD will probably take.
I do not profess that this is what is going to happen. These are merely assumptions and I welcome any criticism if there is any flaw in my applying EW rules and guidelines in drawing these probabilities.
EGhttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/images/smilies/smile.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=72544&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1197575220 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=72545&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1197575220 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=72546&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1197575695
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1329
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 13, 2007 4:45pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
update on EURUSD
Also, Price has been banging on the 15min 34ema which coincides with the median of a downward channel also on the 15min chart.
Let us see if this will continue to move down now .
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=72563&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1197582193
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1330
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 13, 2007 5:32pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
watching 38.2 otherwise the 50% level.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=72573&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1197585161
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1331
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 13, 2007 11:04pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar25165_1.gifmarketwavez
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif768 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Usd/Yen
This is Mid-Term view of what may be occurring :http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Price is now fooling around with this 50 % RETRACEMENT LINE ..........
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
This is only a Probability !................It is Not Cast in Stone........
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
( Double Click on chart to enlarge )
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=72639&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1197605029
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1332
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 14, 2007 1:19am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EURUSD
Price has formed :
a triangle on the 5min chart.
a semblance of a harmonic oattern on the 5min, 15min and 39min chart
a potential bearish pin bar on the 1hour chart
Price has also pierced thru the Daily Pivot at 1.4644
Weekly Pivot is @ 1.4650
while Monthly Pivot is @ 1.4666
note that we are in a wave 4 up I believe of the wave c down of an extended FLAT wave b of the bigger wave B of this Wave 4 on the 4hr chart.
Looking at the 1 min chart, # up to 4 waves are finished after the formation of a triangle. This could be the end of this wave 4 up @ 1.4643 or final wave 5 may still extend up to 1.4659 which is the end of wave 1 of the same degree as this wave 4.
If price goes higher than 1.4659, then most likely we have found our sub wave b bottom at 1.4577 and this movew going up is actually part of the wave C of the Bigger wave B going up.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1333
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 14, 2007 2:00am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
EURUSD update
1min up to 1hr stochastics over bought.
potential for a bearish pinbar on the 15min chart
momentum and CCI also at over bought level on 15 min chart.
These are all potentials. Must ensure that price does not go higher than 1.4659.
will wait for 4 waves down to form then a pull back UP towards 1.4654 before entering a short.
while a breach of 1.4659 will put me on a spot where I will watch price go up first then will enter a Long trade when it retraces down. on the 5min chart
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=72662&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1197615526
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1334
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 14, 2007 2:07am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
I actually have entered a short trade @ an MT4 equivalent of 1.4650 which is 9 pips away from what this wave 4 should be as a limit.
SL is at 1.4670 to give room for a spike instead of 1.4659
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1335
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 14, 2007 2:13am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
this could be looking good for our Short trade now
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif)
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=72666&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1197616401
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Dec 14, 2007 2:22am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Classic examples I would say.
of forecasting wave potentials based on EW Rules and Guidelines
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=72668&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1197616902 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=72669&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1197616902
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Dec 14, 2007 4:03am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
here is the 4 hour chart with that potential.
Could be a contracting symmetrical triangle or a contracting barrier triangle. Either of the 2, will be followed with a break to the downside.
The other option is a FLAT corrective triangle that goes up towards previous high at 1.4966 if a regular flat . Otherwise, it may be an expanded flat that travels up and makes new High.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
PS. I am favoring a Triangle Big wave b on this 4hour chart.
Previous wave 2 of the same degree as this wave 4 on the 4hour hour chart was a complex sideways expanding corrective wave.
wave 4 therefore is expected to be a Zigzag.
Wave A of this wave 4 was a 3 wave structure
Therefore Wave B is exoected to be FLAT or a Triangle.
If Wave B is a FLAT or an expanded FLAT, then price goesup towards the origin of Big Wave A to end Big Wave B.
In that case , I do not see the possibility of a Zigzag Wave 4.
So given that forecasting scenario, I am more inclined to see this Big Wave B develop into a triangle so that The whole of Wave 4 will be able to form the expected Zigzag Corrective Wave .
Yes this is like trying to just stick to the guidelines and some rules without noting fundamentals and technicals. But let us see how this turns out.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=72679&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1197622588
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Dec 14, 2007 4:43am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
another scenario on chart
incidentally, price hits Daily 5sma @ 1.4561.
watching potential levels where price could turn around for a retracement:
1.4546 Daily Support 2
1.4480 61.8% projection from the previous days Range
1.4486 is Daily Support 3
1.4408 could be the extrem which is the Weekly Support 2
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=72686&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1197625194
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Dec 18, 2007 4:58pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar20353_2.gifkevmcfoster
Jai Shewaramani
Member Since Sep 2006
82 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
jus wondering if i've got hold of the right EW counts for this huge corrective pattern
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=73550&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1198015050
__________________
It is better to be approximately right than precisely wrong
To be the Best, you have to beat the Rest!!!
It doesn't matter what you know, it's how you use it...
Dec 19, 2007 11:18am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
money and Kevin
Attached is my count for GBPJPY
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=73717&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1198081092
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1352
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 19, 2007 6:00pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Other views with EW and Harmonic Patterns
Potential Bullish Bat on the 1 hr TF.
MACD Divergence on the 15min chart. My EW indicates that we may have wave 5 end for the Sub wave c of a wave B.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=73777&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1198105092 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=73778&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1198105092 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=73780&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1198105497
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1353
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 19, 2007 6:27pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
note that this is on 5min chart.
an expanding triangle for wave a or 1.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
update
1 more chart
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=73782&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1198106759 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=73783&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1198107317
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Dec 19, 2007 7:42pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
update for a possible ew count revision based on new development.
225.95 may just be the end of wave 3 down.
potentially developing a wave 4 up. wave 2 being what looks to me as a sideways correction, I would be watching wave 4 develop into a sharp zigzag.
There is always a possibiolity that wave 4 can end on the 23.6% retrace when the main trend is strong .
1st TP would be @ 38.2% retracement @ 227.14 which is also the end of previous wave 1 to prevent overlap between wave 4 and wave 1 or 2.
a possible bounce may be observed when price hits the daily Pivot @ 226.86
I will not discount the possibility of price going up to the Weekly Pivot @ 227.77 which is just a little above the following MAs
15min 240 ema
15min 365 ema
4hr 5sma
incidentally while weekly pivot is @ 227.86, the 61.8% retracement of wave 3 is @ 227.87 BUT this level if price will reach will show an overlap between wave 1 and wave 4.
50% retrace level will have a better chance which is at 227.51 ( if you disregard the slight overlap between wave 1 and wave 4 due to the spike at wave 1 end.
if that pans out for wave 4..... then I would look towards the 225.40 level for potential end of wave 5.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=73791&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1198111304 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=73792&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1198111304
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1355
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 19, 2007 8:47pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
50 ema and the 34ema on the 15 min chart seemed to have formed a barrier for price to go up and has only allowed price to retrace by 23.6% up of wave 3.
and has resulted to a formation of a triangle on the 15min and 30min chart.
The way I look at it now is that we will see price complete the 5 zigzag waves in side the triangle then breakout to the down side and finish off the wave 5 down before bouncing up.
Poor data performance on the Japanese trade balance as not helped gbpjpy to shoot up for that retracement.
Anyway, evrything still seems within the EW guideline so I will maintain this view for now.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=73802&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1198115262
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1356
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 20, 2007 8:12pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
I apologize for posting that GBPUSD chart earlier which showed a potential Pinbar on my 4hour chart. I checked other platforms and did not see the same . So I thought it best to remove that post so as not to give false hope for those with current long trades suffering heavy drawdowns.
EG
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1357
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 20, 2007 8:46pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Merry Christamas To Everyone
Attached is my EW Chart for the 4 hour Timeframe together with the Pivot and the Support and Resistance Levels and Trendlines.
I hope these chart will help someone.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
PS.
I am still Bullish Bias but like they say "currently bleeding RED" with my position.
Based on my ew counts, there is still a poterntial that wave 5 is not finished And for price to still go down to FE 261.8 @ 222.43 or the weekly S2 @ 222.31. or to the Daily S2 or Support 3. So currently really bleeding with my position.
But a possible retracement for a wave 4, if wave 5 is not yet finished is possible. But that would mean price will have to go above the daily pivot at 224.83
The chart attached just show possible scenarios and do not recommend any particular trade.
Anybody is free to comment on it as it includes both the EW Counts and some technical stuff which I hope others may find either useful or they can help pinpoint areas which I may not be noticing the implications of.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=74001&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1198201424 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=74002&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1198201424 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=74003&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1198201443
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Dec 20, 2007 9:41pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Attached chart for GBPJPY shows 2 possible counts
Bullish a5_bz_c5_31
Bearish 1_2_3_4? Deep Pink
Price has Breached the Daily Pivot level on the 4hour chart. But we need a candle to open and close above this Level to have higher confidence of a Bullish trend.
But it also shows price nearly hitting the 23.6% retracement level for Wave 3.
Very much like yesterday. so let us watchand hopefully be able to do something for these long trades I still have.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=74010&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1198204784
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1359
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 20, 2007 9:48pm
daytek
Member
Member Since Jan 2007
57 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Attached is my EW Chart for the 4 hour Timeframe together with the Pivot and the Support and Resistance Levels and Trendlines.
I hope these chart will help someone.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
PS.
I am still Bullish Bias but like they say "currently bleeding RED" with my position.
Based on my ew counts, there is still a poterntial that wave 5 is not finished And for price to still go down to FE 261.8 @ 222.43 or the weekly S2 @ 222.31. or to the Daily S2 or Support 3. So currently really bleeding with my position.
But a possible retracement for a wave 4, if wave 5 is not yet finished is possible. But that would mean price will have to go above the daily pivot at 224.83
The chart attached just show possible scenarios and do not recommend any particular trade.
Anybody is free to comment on it as it includes both the EW Counts and some technical stuff which I hope others may find either useful or they can help pinpoint areas which I may not be noticing the implications of.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Hi EG,
I fell on the same trap as you did, what a painful day trying to long.
Todays low opened the "doors" to a possible wave 5 so that the current low will be 3 and all this correction was a wave 4..which looks very attractive because the last week really looks like the type of correction that forms waves 4, Slow and painful.
On the other hand this looks as a B so that the C should be a nice move upwards...Today's low was right on the Warning line of my fork, so a retrace is due.
My plan is to see how the retracement develops, see if this was a bitchy b wave that guppy loves or if this was the first leg of the next wave.
PS:Charts are coming soon.
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1360
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 20, 2007 9:58pm
daytek
Member
Member Since Jan 2007
57 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Chart
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=74012&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1198205865
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1361
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 20, 2007 10:42pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Hey Daytek.
Thank you for posting your chart.
Attached is my 5min chart.
Started to hedge my long trade now by 4 out of 7 parts.
if this turns out as a wave 2 down now as in the chart , then I can exit my hedge. it not, then I will let it ride.
Stochastics levels on the lower TFs is way over bought but the 4hour stochs is starting to cross back the 20 level.
So I am basically biased to seeing this as wave 2 then it continues with the 4 hour new upward trend.
Whew..... Starting to cross my fingers and what ever I could still cross here http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/blushing.gif
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=74022&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1198208387
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1362
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 20, 2007 10:51pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by daytek http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Chart
Hey..
How do you get those additional or baby median lines on your Andrews Pitchfork?
Those Andrews Pitchfork set ups do help a lot. thank you for bring that up and posting your chart.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1363
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 21, 2007 12:07am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
15min chart
Price is sitting on the confluence of 34ema, 50ema and 62 ema ( 224.60) right below the Daily Pivot which 15min candle pierced earlier at 224.85
Took out all my edge at total - 8pips without waiting for this potential wave down to finish c=a for a sub wave b of the potential wave 4 up.
that was because price was sitting right there at the confluence of 3 emas below the DP.
Now it has touched the 224.55 which gives a c=a for the sub wave b
It is more likely now that I will sit and wait for price to go down then up again to complete a potential wave 4 UP.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1364
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 21, 2007 12:24am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Bullish engulfing candle formed on the 4hr chart.
Price is still struggling to get past the 15min 100sma (224.74) then stay above the Daily Pivot of 224.85
Attached Imageshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=74036&stc=1&d=1198215877
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Dec 21, 2007 12:44am
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1365
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 21, 2007 1:07am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EURUSD
Here is my current view on the EURUSD EW Wave Count.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=74039&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1198217223
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Dec 21, 2007 3:17am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY
Price has been attacking the Daily Pivot Level on the 15min chart.
Looks like it failed again.
Looking at the 15min chart again, wave 2 seemed to have developed sideways and the 4hour Stochs just reached toward the 50 level from the oversold levels. Wave 4 normally kisses the 80 level from below on a Bearish main trend. That is if we are indeed in a 12345 wave down from 230.31
Right now 4 hour stochs is just crossing back into the trade zone at the 20 Level.
Things to ponder on:
the move up from 223.56 up to 225.09 could be classified in 2 ways.
A 3 wave abc of an A wave of a Zigzag ABC going up as wave 4 provided the move down from 225.09 does retrace more than 50% of the Wave A to have a zigzag wave up.
Or it can be classified as a 5 wave A which makes as look for a wave B that is either a Flat or a Triangle . then a C= A later
Next thing to ponder on:
If price from 225.09 retraces towards the previous low by 61.8% or 78.6%, chances are move from 230.31 down to 223.56 was wave abc of a Zigzag wave c of Wave B.
and that the 61.8-78.6% retracement down from 225.09 is a wave 2.
I would personally like to see GBPJPY retrace down to the 61.8-78.6% level so that we have better chances of seeing price reach the down ward trendline on the 4hr chart.
But if it persists to attack the Daily pivot level now and succeed to close and open above that level.....
then chances are , price will be back on the bear move much faster.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=74053&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1198225160
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1367
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 21, 2007 6:42am
money
Multiple Usernames
Member Since Jul 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/1kt.gif106 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif gbp-jpy
Hello everyone.
and this is my long term view for gbp/jpy in new year......analyses for other pairs you can check here.
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=74093&thumb=1&d=1198237207
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1368
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 21, 2007 7:03am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Glad to see you posting your chart here again money.
Attached is my current view on the 4hour chart.
Still no conclusive idea if we are in a wave C up to finish wave 2 in my count or a wave 4 zizag going up.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=74100&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1198238568
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1369
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 21, 2007 7:30am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
as price goes up and stayed above Daily Pivot level,
then w3 is just a bit longer than w1, then I am inclined to see w5 to be 161.8% of the price from w1 to w3 for this wave 5.
161.8% FE is at 226.53 which is just above the 50% retracement of wave 3 and still way below the end of wave 1. Incidentally , this is also at the Daily resistance 2 level which commonly is a Strong resistance level.
I will be looking at starting my hedge for my previous Long trades at this level.
Currently holding 7 parts which I might be able to exit 2 at a profit at this level. That leaves me with 5 more to hedge.
I will see how things go. but will most likely hedge 2 from the 161.8% extention level.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=74113&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1198240223
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1370
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 21, 2007 11:03am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Possible throwover to end the ending diagonal wave 5 on the 5min chart of GBPJPY.
Then a resumption of the move down to finish off the wave 5 of wave 3 down?
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=74150&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1198252973
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1371
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 21, 2007 12:17pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
I did not get to see the completion of an ending diagonal wave 5.
Instead, I got what seems to be an expanding barrier triangle. It is possible that there is still a small move down then another thrust to the upside to touch the upper side of this expanding triangle.
But right now, I have already exited 3 parts long trade with minimal loss while I am currently holding 4parts of the old Long trades and another 4 parts Short trades which actually were placed abit too early at 225.28 and 225.47
See you all on Sunday open or our Monday open here in Asia.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=74174&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1198257412
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Dec 21, 2007 12:36pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Note the 5 Zigzag waves inside the expanding triangle.
A throwover could bring price up to the Resistance 2 level @ 226.59
Otherwise, it will just hit the upper side of this expanding triangle which also is at the 50% retracement level of wave 3 at 226.31.
On the 15 min chart, price has pierced thru the median line of a shi channel and is almost near the previous days High of 226.42
From here, I wait....
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=74181&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1198258544
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1373
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 21, 2007 1:07pm
daytek
Member
Member Since Jan 2007
57 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Hey..
How do you get those additional or baby median lines on your Andrews Pitchfork?
Those Andrews Pitchfork set ups do help a lot. thank you for bring that up and posting your chart.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Hello Grande,
those dotted blue lines are simply the middle of the median line and the 2 outside lines, you find the middle and draw the dotted ones parallel.
Dodo
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1374
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 21, 2007 3:33pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by daytek http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Hello Grande,
those dotted blue lines are simply the middle of the median line and the 2 outside lines, you find the middle and draw the dotted ones parallel.
Dodo
Noted that daytek. thank you.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1375
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 21, 2007 3:41pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
I need to revise that wave count I made on GBPJPY.
If price exceeds FE 161.8 @ 226.77, most likely GBPJPY will continue to develop the 5 waves of a Final wave C up for the end of wave 2.
However, if price stays at FE161.8 or lower, then we just finished the wave c @ wave c = wave a 1.618 to finish the zigzag wave 4 up to be followed by a downward move to finish wave 5 down of wave 3.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=74194&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1198269637 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=74195&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1198269637
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1376
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 28, 2007 4:52pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Happy New Year and Let's ALL Rock and Party
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/party.gif
Happy New Year Everyone!!!!!
As we Meet the New Year...... Here are a bunch of Charts I have drawn for a Potential scenario in 2008 for GBPJPY.
There will be some labellings for both Bearish and for Bullish scenarios. Another technique was added to provided some spice and which allowed me to add reason why I have a Potential Bullish scenario for GBPJPY for 2008.
First of all, if you look at the monthly and the weekly charts, we see that GBPJPY is in the following wave counts:
Monthly - Wave C of Wave 4 W4.C
Weekly - Wave 4 of Wave C W4.C.4
Daily - Here is where this pair is potentially in a decveloping Wave 5 up W4.C.5.3
Wave 2 in Wave C of the monthly Wave 4 shows a sideways expannsion.
By the rule of alternation, we expect wave 4 to be a sharp Zigzag. We see that wave 4 has actually made a 3 wave decline as a very sharp zigzag from the 251.07 down to 219.31
And if you examine it, 219.31 is very near the range where the previous sub wave 4 of the Wave 3 of same degree is located. It has achieved more than 38.2% retracement of Wave 3 of same degree.
Next is, if this decline is considered as only Wave A or the first leg of a bigger Zigzag wave which could extend down to 50-61.8% retracement of wave 3 of same degree, then I would think that this will deviate from the Rules and Guidelines set for Corrective waves.
In my swirling mind..... I should expect a 5 part structured wave as the 1st leg of the wave A of the wave 4. Instead, I see a 3 part structured wave A. In this case, if we are still expecting a wave B, then if wave A is a Zigzag, then wave B should either be a FLAT or a Triangle. Examining the chart again..... I do not see a FLAT or a Triangle developing.
Besides, if a FLAT is still expected to develop based on the wave A we already have, then it is unlikely that we will see a Zigzag wave for this wave 4.
However, if the ascent from 219.31 to 241.35 is considered as a Triangle B, then I can only be convinced that we GBPJPY is still developing a bigger Zigzag wave if it goes lower than 219.31 which is the previous Low.
But based on what I see on my charts now, I see the Potential of a Bullish Scenario for GBPJPY where the 219.31 can be considered as the end of wave 4.
So, while many or the majority think that GBPJPY is going down the tube towards 210 or lower, I will rock the boat by presenting this Potential BULLISH Scenario for GBPJPY in 2008.
Remember that the Bullish scenario can only be set aside if price goes lower than 219.31
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=75013&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1198878562 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=75014&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1198878562 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=75015&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1198878591 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=75016&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1198878591
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=75017&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1198878619 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=75018&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1198878619 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=75019&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1198878641
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Dec 28, 2007 5:01pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
additional charts
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=75020&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1198878806 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=75021&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1198878806 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=75022&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1198878833 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=75023&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1198878833
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=75024&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1198878852
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1378
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 30, 2007 11:52pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY Update
GBPJPY Update
Could this be the Reversal that I am looking for?
Price has not touched the 222.67 level which I was looking for based on the trendline Support and the potential price action on the 0123 Triangulation.
Looking at the EW count, there is a potential to sonsider that last down move to 223.16 as still possibly the bottom of that Wave C down.
It is 49 pips away from my initial target from where I expect to enter my Long trade.
Price may be in a sub wave 1 up now and may still retrace for the sub wave 2 down.
May we all have a profitable trade as we enter Year 2008.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=75304&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199076690 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=75305&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199076690 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=75306&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199076722 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=75307&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199076722
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS