hefeiddd
发表于 2009-4-10 14:55
Oct 29, 2007 10:08am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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My limit of 235.85 to maintain a bearish bias in the long term has been invalidated with the attainment of 236.76.
I can not have a 1234 count now from the high of 240.66 which initially was my end of wave c equivalent to Point 0 of wave 1 down for C wave Down because wave 4 has entered price territory of wave 2 ( by reaching 236.76 )
This would therefore indicate that gbpjpy is back on the uptrend. I would not think of this as just a continuation of a wave c inside Big wave B as end of wave c inside this Big wave B will get too high.
So I would consider the move from 219.31 as end of wave 34 and the beginning of wave 35 and wave 351.
Chances are the carry trades is currently underway in the long run.
But we may be in on a small retracement on the 1 hr chart.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=61533&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193666031 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=61534&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193666031 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=61536&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193666692 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=61537&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193666692
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=61538&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193666905 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=61543&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193668073
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EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Oct 29, 2007 10:28am
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #882
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 29, 2007 10:46am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
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went long
@ 236.20 and
@ 236.00 then letting it run till end of wave 35 @ range of FE 176.4 to 200.0 @ 237.45 to 237.99
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#883
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 29, 2007 11:23am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
went long
@ 236.20 and
@ 236.00 then letting it run till end of wave 35 @ range of FE 176.4 to 200.0 @ 237.45 to 237.99
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Getting sleepy now. exited trade from 236.0 for a 19 pip gain after paying 18 pip spread. Not that bad for less than an hour's work.
Not a very good R/R ratio but none the less a Gain. But leaving the other trade running.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
above trades are on live account. trades on demo will leave running
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#884
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 29, 2007 1:13pm
HonaForex
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif gpy/Yen Count Monthly
See chart below............let me know wats wrong with count
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=61589&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193677891 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=61590&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193677926
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hefeiddd
发表于 2009-4-10 14:56
Oct 29, 2007 1:21pm
HonaForex
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif gpy/yen Weekly count
We r in wave 5 as seen in monthly chart & also see weekly Zoom
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=61596&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193678437 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=61597&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193678468
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #887
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 29, 2007 1:27pm
el grande
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Proposed direction / route of GBPJPY.
So expecting GBPJPY to get to 235.51 then from there continue its move going North toward 238.00
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=61599&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193678762
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#888
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 29, 2007 1:37pm
HonaForex
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif gpy/yen 4 R
see chart.........poor in typing
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=61601&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193679294 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=61603&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193679450
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hefeiddd
发表于 2009-4-10 14:57
Oct 29, 2007 1:40pm
el grande
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adjusted percentage
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=61604&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193679604
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #890
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 29, 2007 1:50pm
el grande
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Hona....
I initially thought about playing out a triangle in wave 2.
However, Triangles are rarely seen in wave 2 and besides A C and E did not line up properly.
So I opted for a complex wave .
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=61608&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193680183
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#891
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 29, 2007 1:52pm
HonaForex
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Hey
I do not think your wave 3 red is valid because your wave 4 will definitely land in wave 2 terrritory.
we r in wave 5 of wave 3............
May I ask what your basis is for using WXY?
wave a (red) is in 3 waves & later we have 5 waves & 5 waves in down direction,which i labled WXY
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#892
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 29, 2007 2:02pm
el grande
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labelling waves expected to be expanding
replacing or adding chart to show current development
****update. looks like developing into a flat instead of an irregular flat or expanding flat.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=61612&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193680923 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=61614&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193681359 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=61618&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193682056
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Oct 29, 2007 2:22pm Reason: adding chart
hefeiddd
发表于 2009-4-10 15:00
Oct 29, 2007 2:44pm
el grande
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getting ready to enter my Long Trade.
1st entry @ 235.71 . This couild just be a wave 3 so a retrace going up is possible before going back down towards 235.46 for possible wave 5 end of this wave c down.
SL set at 235.34 which is 1 pip lower than the end of wave 1.
But it is also p[ossible that lowest that this pair will attain prior to an uptrend may just be at 235.71
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=61622&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193683465
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #897
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 29, 2007 3:00pm
HonaForex
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Quote:
Originally Posted by el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
getting ready to enter my Long Trade.
1st entry @ 235.71 . This couild just be a wave 3 so a retrace going up is possible before going back down towards 235.46 for possible wave 5 end of this wave c down.
SL set at 235.34 which is 1 pip lower than the end of wave 1.
But it is also p[ossible that lowest that this pair will attain prior to an uptrend may just be at 235.71
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Wat r u showing is 1 min chart,tats where i m confusing bcos i seeing at higher time frame...............well before i use to trade at 1 min chart but i believe Elliot wave should not be traded less than 60 min time frame....IMO
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#898
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 29, 2007 3:01pm
el grande
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get ready
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=61626&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193684455
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EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#899
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 29, 2007 3:30pm
el grande
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expanded flat or irregular flat may be developing after all.
My bad. I have to learn to spot wave size proportion.
So it can still go up to 236.98 and then come down to 235.46
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=61631&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193686243
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#900
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 29, 2007 3:32pm
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Gbp/Usd : Chart Update
Price has stabilized again , .........
Still there's no break below 2.0740
---------------------------------------------------
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=61632&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193686366
hefeiddd
发表于 2009-4-10 15:01
Oct 30, 2007 3:50am
HonaForex
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Usd/yen Update
Usd/yen seen clear 5 wave from 117.97 to 113.25 in form of wave 1 or A & Wave 2 or B is turned in complex wave in form of W (complete),X in process & Y sometime later today.......see below
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=61872&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193730420 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=61873&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193730446
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Oct 29, 2007 3:50pm
el grande
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tracking the route
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=61645&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193687434
Oct 31, 2007 12:32am
el grande
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need to get out of this upward channel.
If price gets back into the downward green pitchfork then magenta boxes will be my targets
But if price continues to climb and gets past the median line of the upward Pitchfork, then my new Targets will be towards the 239 Level which is the Weekly R2 (239.03) and nearthe Daily R3 (239.13)
I hope auxesis can provide some insight re use of these Pitchforks.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62196&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193805073
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#910
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 31, 2007 12:43am
el grande
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Favoring a Downward move for a bigger wave 2 down and a possible Bullish Gartley Set up.
Note too the Ichimoku cloud thinning on the 15min chart.
235.85 is also very near the following:
235.94 Murrey MaTh Major Support and Resistance Level on the 15 min chart
236.04 15 min 240 EMA
235.98 Daily 5 SMA
Still trying to see how I can strengthen my analysis by supplementing and studying price in relation to tools used in other systems aside from EW Counts.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62199&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193805784
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Oct 31, 2007 12:51am Reason: additional info
hefeiddd
发表于 2009-4-10 15:08
Oct 31, 2007 2:12am
pips4life
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Hi EG,
We will both benefit from discussing EW counts, that's for sure. With regards to that "academic" discussion on long-term GJ, I'll offer this chart of the Nikkei index from 1950-2002, from Prechter's book "Conquer the Crash", which basically hypothesized that the Dow was going to go into a huge tailspin from 10000 down to triple digits soon after the book was published (3/2002). Wrong timing at the very least, if not entirely wrong as there has been no such gigantic crash (yet).
Anyway, it's hard to say the Nikkei will correlate well with the GJ (or any xJ) prices, because of the weird relationship of the Yen to their market. They love a weak currency as it favors exports. Even so, I suppose if the market is making big moves, it will certain affect the currency demand as international investors move money into (or out of) their market. Looking at it a bit, it does seem to correlate somewhat. The Nikkei peak around 89/90 and the preceeding years was a downward trend for the GJ (stronger Yen). Funny though, the Yen kept getting stronger for another 5-6 years, bottoming mid-95. UJ bottomed a bit earlier in 95. With currency pairs, we are talking about TWO economies, so to be fair, one would have to put up the charts for the markets of the other country next to the Nikkei.
What I can see is there does appear to be a big correction in the early 70's. That would perhaps support my hypothesis of a 1 and 2 wave prior to 1978 when the floating currency market was established. Too bad the chart is arithmetic scale rather than log scale because the earlier years are dwarfed. There was also a long downward trend in the early 60's. For more recent price action, check out http://finance.yahoo.com symbol ^N225
Pips4life
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62211&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193810190
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #912
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 31, 2007 3:31am
el grande
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Price bounced off the 15m 100SMA
Bounced back above Ichimoku Cloud of 15m chart
Price staying on the upward Pitchfork.
Boxed areas are new TP Levels
expected towards the Weekly R2 of 239.03 or higher.
Note that TP for this upward move are the 61.8, 100 and 161.8 FE Levels Extention of the waves 1 and 2 targeting wave 33. But wave 35 will be towards 243.22 FE 261.8 and 244.60 FE 300.0
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62228&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193815883 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62229&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193815883
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EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#913
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 31, 2007 3:40am
Serega
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Hi El. Its to difficult to understand the pictures where you try to mix diffrent systems, be independent, if you count weves, then use waves and fibohttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
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#914
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 31, 2007 3:44am
el grande
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TP Levels
close up
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62231&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193816545 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62233&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193816638
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EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#915
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 31, 2007 4:00am
Serega
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I see such wave account of usd/jpy
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62236&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193817635
hefeiddd
发表于 2009-4-10 15:13
Oct 31, 2007 5:45am
Serega
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eur/usd
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62274&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193823905
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #921
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 31, 2007 5:57am
Serega
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You see EG i would like, to show you more pictures and forecast, but there is a problem, most of them in russian and may be moderators of the site don't allow to print links
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#922
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 31, 2007 12:17pm
el grande
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GBPJPY Update
Looks like we have finished wave 3 Up @ 239.53 and entering a retracement down for wave 4.
Most likely at 23.6% down of previous wave 3 @ 238.51 where the Sub wave 4 of wave 3 is at.
Then a continued Trip Up North is expected to cap this whole 5 wave impulse wave up to finish Wave 5 @ Target range of 161.8% of wave 0 to 3 @ 243.12
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62382&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193847419
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#923
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 31, 2007 12:27pm
el grande
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Here is my basis from the daily chart down to the 1 hour chart.
Looks like a 25 to 50 bps cut is factored in.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62385&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193848046 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62386&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193848046 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62387&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193848058
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EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#924
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 31, 2007 12:36pm
el grande
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15m close up
Interestingly 238.52 is near the 15min 50EMA
4h 5SMA is @ 238.33
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62389&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193848600
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
hefeiddd
发表于 2009-4-10 15:16
Oct 31, 2007 12:56pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,792 Posts
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adjusted because of new high
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62391&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193849755
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #926
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 31, 2007 1:36pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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Alternative Count
Spotted this on a different Chart I was working on.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62394&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193852110 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62395&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193852110 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62396&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193852149
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#927
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 31, 2007 2:42pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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23.6% retracement was hit.
I would now assume that a rate cut of .50 will fuel price increase for this Pair.
That the Plunge it is now in is but a pull back and will eventually be parallel with the Elliott Wave Count.
Meaning after this wave 4 retrace, it will continue going up.
I got stopped out for 75 pips inclusive of 18 pip spread on 1 long trade.
My other short was exited for 230 pip loss.
I Exited all trades. Will see what we have tomorrow for this pair.
Hedged my earlier so basically lost around 200 pips inclusive of 2x18 pipspread NET for the day.
*** Just noting here that Price plunge hit 50EMA 60 and 62 EMA on 15 min charts
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62412&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193856115
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#928
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 31, 2007 2:52pm
pips4life
Member
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195 Posts
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Unfortunately, FF Calendar is wrong. The rate cut was 0.25% down to 4.5% Federal Funds rate. The discount rate was also cut 0.25% down to 5%.
Official release: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsev.../20071031a.htm
So, yes it's a cut which the market had already priced in, pretty much, so you saw a retrace to 238.50 (Hope you did TP??! Good call on target).
It was not, however, a cut of 0.50.
Pips4life
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#929
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 31, 2007 3:11pm
pips4life
Member
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195 Posts
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P.S.
That was a risky short (! oops, I said "long" before editing) trade for Wave 4 just before big rate news, but it did play out well.
For the life of me, when I saw a cut of 0.50 on FF web site, I could not fathom why GJ was tanking so far. Yes, I've seen some news announcements which are bullish, and the very first prices spike downwards, but it's very short lived and moves steadily upwards.
Here we had supposedly very bullish news but the market went down???
But then, when I learned it was only 0.25 cut, then while that would ordinarily be bullish also, it had been priced in, and the EW count ruled! It was time for a retrace, and the news was in line with expectations, so while it was volatile, it did go down. But it also makes sense it only hit the first (higher) retrace target, because of course, it is bullish.
Having said that it's bullish... it's very strange to me that UJ and GJ are still more or less tracking each other the same. It seems to me if the draw is as a "carry trade", then the interest differential is what makes it work. The GBP interest is growing higher than the USD rate which would argue that GJ would have more of an upside than UJ. Therefore, so would GU, I guess...
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#930
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 31, 2007 4:00pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pips4life http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
P.S.
That was a risky short (! oops, I said "long" before editing) trade for Wave 4 just before big rate news, but it did play out well.
*** Actually I placed 2 opposite trades during the early asian session as an experiment after calculating potential top and available capital to protect acount for SL. But I exited my 2 Long trades early and got stuck waiting for a retracment for a new Long trade. That is why the short trade loss ballooned to about 200 pip loss.
I did not add a short trade to trade that wave 4. but instead placed a Long trade. I made a mistake though about my SL as it was too tight for this pair PLUS I should have noted the 23.6% potential retracement.
For the life of me, when I saw a cut of 0.50 on FF web site, I could not fathom why GJ was tanking so far. Yes, I've seen some news announcements which are bullish, and the very first prices spike downwards, but it's very short lived and moves steadily upwards.
Here we had supposedly very bullish news but the market went down???
*** I got into the mindset that NEWS does not really influence the long term trend of EW Counts. It could expand a wave develpment though and take longer to develop. But eventually it gets back in line with the EW Count. That is why I was still thinking Bullish on this pair even before the news.
Honestly though , it helped reading that majority of the traders I was scanning were expecting a rate cut except that they were not unanimous as to the actual rate cut.
But then, when I learned it was only 0.25 cut, then while that would ordinarily be bullish also, it had been priced in, and the EW count ruled! It was time for a retrace, and the news was in line with expectations, so while it was volatile, it did go down. But it also makes sense it only hit the first (higher) retrace target, because of course, it is bullish.
Having said that it's bullish... it's very strange to me that UJ and GJ are still more or less tracking each other the same. It seems to me if the draw is as a "carry trade", then the interest differential is what makes it work. The GBP interest is growing higher than the USD rate which would argue that GJ would have more of an upside than UJ. Therefore, so would GU, I guess...
Still toying with my charts.
Attaching a chart with some labels which are not to be taken as EW Count. I would prefer to call it Pulse Chart.. still experimenting on it.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62438&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193860829
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
hefeiddd
发表于 2009-4-10 15:17
Oct 31, 2007 4:04pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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Treandlines
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62439&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193861071 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62440&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193861071 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62441&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193861089 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62442&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193861089
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #932
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 31, 2007 4:47pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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Adjusting my wave count on the 15min chart
247.27 as Target for end of Wave 3 UP.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62458&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193863615 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62459&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193863727
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#933
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 31, 2007 4:54pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,792 Posts
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Hourly candle closing above Daily Trendline Orange.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62461&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193864067
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
hefeiddd
发表于 2009-4-10 15:18
Oct 31, 2007 9:22pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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EW Projections/Targets Alongside Targets Using other systems/tools.
Another candle opening and closing above that downward Orange Daily broken trendline will help boost validity of an upward move for this currency pair IMHO.
Already on the 4hr chart, Candles are consolidating on and within this trendline.
Other factors to note:
Daily R3 @ 242.20.
Weekly R3 @ 242.24
Murrey Math Level (+2/8) @242.18 Time to Sell
61.8% Level @ 242.14 ( above Previous day's High incase of a breakout )
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62538&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193880863
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Oct 31, 2007 9:34pm Reason: Replacing - Enhancing Chart Details
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #937
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 31, 2007 9:44pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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Potential Retracement:
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62542&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193881485
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#938
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 1, 2007 1:11am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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Has not fallen to where Lower median Line and Daily Downtrendline intersect.
However it has met criteria for 50% retracement of wave 3 and a corrective wave leg measurement/ relationship of C = A
My view now is that it will start going up again.
Also note that Stochastics for 1min, 5min and 15min and 30min have turned up from over sold level.
Went thru 1hr and 4 hour %SMA including 50 EMA on 15min chart also 62 EMA on 15min Chart
failed to reach 100MA @ 239.11 on 15 min chart then the Weekly R2 and the Daily Pivot @ 239.03
15min stoch oversold reading could still imply a retracement then a continuing move down towards 237.81 (Daily S1)
Next is the 240 EMA on 15min chart
Daily 5 SMA and Murrey Math Strong Support and Resistance Level At 237.50
then the weekly 5SMA @ 237.22
and the Monthly Pivot @ 236.96
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62591&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193893689
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Nov 1, 2007 2:11pm
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#939
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 1, 2007 5:58am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,792 Posts
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Adjusted
Wave 5 end
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62644&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193911061 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62645&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193911061
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#940
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 1, 2007 6:21am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Count variations
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62651&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193912482
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
hefeiddd
发表于 2009-4-10 15:19
Nov 1, 2007 11:48am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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carforum and Pips4life..
will reply to you a little later.
Chart is offered as an alternative count.
When my charts get too busy, I open up a clean chart and start labelling from there again.
Helps me get a clean view again and prevents me from getting distracted by indicators.
****
Assuming my higher TF EW Count is correct, red 33 is ultimate objective when Aqua Wave 4 finishes a corrective Flat wave.
Notice that Aqua wave 2 is a sharp Zigzag wave. We therefore assume that Aqua Wave 4 will be a complex Wave.
Now I watch the charts as the wave develops. Oftern monitoring the lower TFs to see how the Higher TFs evolve.
I could be right or I could be wrong. What is important to me is I will be able to determine where I made a wrong turn or a wrong count and I should be ready with alternative counts once a current count fails.
This part of having readily available alternative counts does not happen often enough as this definitely takes a lot of my time.
But I am working on being able to assess wave counts faster than I used too.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62796&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193940543
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Nov 1, 2007 2:09pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #947
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 1, 2007 1:16pm
victa123
Temporarily Suspended by Senior Member
Member Since Aug 2007
17 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Thanks
Thanks sir for the information, i really appreciate that sir. moreso, i still need were to get elliotwaze software. I will go to link to you gave me to study the elliot wazes. Thanks again for the great work.
Quote:
Originally Posted by el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Hey Victor.
Better remove your email address on your post otherwise you will probably be swamped with spam when spammers pick up your address here.
If you want to learn EW, you can do a web search with the topic "Elliott Wave" or you can first try out http://www.elliottwave.com
This is one of the best places to get your EW education started. They have lots of free material. but getting hold of the actual book "Elliott Wave Principle, Key to Market Behavior" would be a plus.
You can also check out the threads by fixme1too and itme here in forexfactory. I am sure you will be able to pick up a lot from them too.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#948
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 1, 2007 2:39pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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Possible Wave B Up of a flat corrective wave.
I have assumed that this is a wave 4 and that it is a sideways corrective wave and not a Simple Sharp Corrective wave normally associated with Zigzags.
So if this is a corrective wave, then wave A ( first leg of a corrective Flat has to subdivide into 3 waves which we can see labelled on the 2nd chart. It does not necessarily have to be a C = A. But normally C > A
This is followed by a B wave which subdivides into 3 waves also where C= A.
As you will see in the chart I have identified end of B wabve as 241.04
Then we should see this price going back south and lower than previous 237.92
Here we can have a C = A for this big A and C.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62801&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193941803 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62803&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193942049 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62808&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193943254
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Nov 1, 2007 2:54pm
Nov 1, 2007 3:23pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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Looks like I got a Bomber here.
This is what I think is a failure to recognize wave size and proportion.
This could possibly be the completeion of the zigzag of the sub wave b inside the Big B wave Up. where C = A
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
update : or maybe not . Unless price goes lower than 238.78 which it is at that level now. No break means wave 2 then UP. with break then it is finishing the wave C down of the zigzag sub wave b of the Big B wave.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62817&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193945017
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#951
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 1, 2007 3:38pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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Price continued downward but stopped and bounced on the 240 EMA on 15min chart.
checking the 1 min chart, I think I see 5 wave subdivision. this could the the reversal to the Upside with C just a little over 61.8 % of A.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62820&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193945902
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
hefeiddd
发表于 2009-4-10 15:23
Nov 1, 2007 3:58pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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Price has continued to come down.
Let us see if this stops at the FE 100.0 @ 238.11
Then a Gartley Develops in the 15min chart
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62824&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193946857 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62826&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193947060
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #956
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 1, 2007 4:02pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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incidentally, Daily S1 is @ 237.81
Candle lowest part for now is at 237.97. almost there
Daily 5 SMA is @ 237.21
Weekly 5 SMA is @ 236.95
Daily S2 is @ 237.05
Monthly Pivot @ 236.96
Let us ee if price breaks thru that thick layer of Support
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#957
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 1, 2007 8:04pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Price has continued to go Down probably reaching end of wave 34 red level @ 235.22 to fit into a wave 4 Guideline.
Although Maximum potential dip of a wave 4 is till the end of wave 1 mocassin @ 234.33
Next we have to watch how wave 4 develops. Looking at the 1 hour chart, we can see an unfinished Zigzag wave.
Now I am thinking that if I was watching this 1 hour chart last night when the big drop happennedI should have seen this better and realized how it was supposed to develop based on EW Rules.
I was looking for a FLAT Corrective wave.
I knew that Leg A of a flat corrective wave was supposed to divide into 3 waves.
Instead of trying to find those 3 waves or insist on making that first leg down fit into a 3 wave structures, I should remember to rely more on at least the 1hr or the 4 hour charts when verifying wave counts and structure as imoportant as this.
Now on a 1 hour chart, it would seem that leg A and Leg B of a Zigzag wave have been finished. we need to have this zigzag wave as our Leg A of the flat corrective wave of this wave 4 Mocassin.
Since we now have the wave A and B points, we now draw the Fib Extention tool to Project the C=A Form
Our targets would then be as follows
FE 100.0 @ 236.58 C=A
FE 127.6 @ 235.59
FE 161.8 @ 234.36 C = A x 1.618
Watch your Oscillators. Check for oversold levels.
A negative Divergence found in a lower time frome could signal as a heads up that a reversal in this smaller time frame which would represent Peaks and Dips of the sub waves to complete this wave 4 may show.
Therefore, combining all these information plus what else you see on your charts, one will have a more or less subjective opinion on whether or not a reversal has began.
Note that if a wave wave impulse or motive wave has began, it is best advised to wait for the 1st 5 waves to finish representing the 1st sub wave of the wave 5 up and also wait for the pullback or reetrace representing sub wave 2.
It is best advised that A trader trades the Wave 3 and the wave C.
The pull back should have the signs of being a wave 2 to maximize profits.
hhhhhhmmmmm.... very easy to say
Admittedly..... I have a long way to go still until I can fully implement this in my trading strategy and planning.
Going back to this trade, we would then expect now to continue going down until price reaches 236.58 and maybe lower towards 235.59 then see it go up again towards 241.35 ( trying to re visit a previous high ).
It is possible for this to go higher than 241.35 resulting in an Irregular or expanded flat corrective wave which would be toward 242.48 and 243.17.
Then expect price to go down again.
- if we have an irregular flat, then C wave should be 161.8% of A
- if we have a regular flat corrective wave, then wave C will just slightly go lower than wave A which would basically mean we have C= A.
Let us ee how this Pair evolves in the next days or weeks.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62876&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193961206 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62877&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193961206
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#958
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 1, 2007 8:27pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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A shot at forecasting.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62889&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193963116
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#959
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 1, 2007 8:59pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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Ranging Friday or is it a Reversal?
Scenarios on the chart
If Price does not go lower than 237.60 and this retracement is around 61.8 to 100% retracement to 237.60 but no lower than this..... then we are in for a Reversal and will likely be on our way up towards 241-242.
However, if price goes lower than 237.60 then we are still in a ranging expanding wave 4.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62892&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193965021 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62893&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193965021
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
hefeiddd
发表于 2009-4-10 15:24
Nov 1, 2007 9:39pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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the other side of the scenario and why.
currently having a bias for the continued move down based on other systems.
Right now that I know I am not that good with this EW Counts yet, I still employ or supplement my analysis with various tools for confirmation.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62902&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193967445
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #962
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 1, 2007 10:02pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Reversal now due to overlap with Wave 1 if up move was Wave 4.
Unless a bigger wave 3 down is in the making.
Now let us see if price goes lower than 238.52 which is the wave 1 high if this is a Reversal.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62908&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193968870
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#963
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 1, 2007 10:25pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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But now as I look at my chart....
It is possibly true that we are now in an uptrend on our way to revisiting yesterday's high or higher.
But the worrisome thing for me now is that it looks like this is just a small wave 4 in a sub wave 1 going up. Provided it does not overlap now at the Magenta line.
This means that we may see this pair going up most likely encounter a bounce down as it touches the Daily Pivot and weekly R 2 @ 239.03.
Retracing its steps toward 237.63, with a likelihood of at least 61.8% up to 78.6% of sub wave 1.
Then it will be on its way up again.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62911&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193970343
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#964
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 1, 2007 10:42pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,792 Posts
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Note that this is a 1 min chart.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62916&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193971311
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#965
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 1, 2007 11:02pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Not really sure how to interpret the price movement on the chart now.
Leg 1 which is the Wave A of the flat corrective wave has a structure ( if it does not go lower than 237.60 anymore) of a Zigzag where C is just a little over 61.8% of A.
Should this be interpreted as a very strong Bullish tendency that Orice did not wait to accomplish a C = A structure for its zigzag leg?
If so, then it is highly likely that we will expect an irregular flat corrective wave. which means that we are also likely to expect price going higher than previous 241.35.
expecting 240.79 up to 241.16
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
**** These details are not to be traded nor recommended for use in trading. They are merely supposed to be used as an exercise in applying Elliott Wave Rules As I understand it for now.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62921&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193972435
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Nov 1, 2007 11:15pm
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#966
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 1, 2007 11:14pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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posted the wrong chart earlier
Sorry
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
PS. Check your 30 minute chart on GBPJPY. There is a PinBar there which should have signalled the reversal. "I think"
We will see.
I did not notice that earlier.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62925&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193973251
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
hefeiddd
发表于 2009-4-10 15:27
Nov 2, 2007 1:12am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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Chart Comparison
Now Price probably consolidating before going down to 78.6% @ 237.90 before reversing.
or till 237.60
But if it goes lower than 237.60, then the EW Count becomes invalid.
Will need to get back to the Drawing board.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62954&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193980228 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62955&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193980228
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #972
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 2, 2007 1:16am
carforum
Member
Member Since May 2006
35 Posts
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This is my counting, please tell me if I have done anything wrong!! Thx
But GBP having a Pin Bar on daily, so not sure whether we are in Wave V
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62956&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193980589
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#973
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 2, 2007 1:26am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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1st Long Trade @ 238.14 61.8% retracement.
next target is @ 78.6% retracement @ 237.90
if pirce goes lower than 237.60 then will close all long trades opened.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#974
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 2, 2007 1:57am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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How price evolved in relation to what I concluded from my EW Count
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62960&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193983015 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62961&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193983015
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#975
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 2, 2007 2:13am
pips4life
Member
Member Since Apr 2007
195 Posts
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I can't type and screen capture fast enough... note the FE levels as possible support. (It just broke FE 100 by a little)
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62965&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193983993
hefeiddd
发表于 2009-4-10 15:28
Nov 2, 2007 5:44am
carforum
Member
Member Since May 2006
35 Posts
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I have enter GU on 1 hr pin bar too... but the target is 239.91
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63022&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193996670
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #989
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 2, 2007 5:46am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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EW Rocks
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63023&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193996744 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63024&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193996744
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#990
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 2, 2007 7:46am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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Hey money....
Sorry about this delay. I was trading LIVE earlier and was experimenting on riding each wave turn on GBPJPY.
Attached is my proposed count for usdjpy.
Honestly, something is a bit weird with my count on the 4 hour chart waves 1 and 2.
But so far this is what I can come up with.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63050&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194003929 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63051&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194003929 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63052&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194003951
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
hefeiddd
发表于 2009-4-10 15:29
Nov 2, 2007 8:43am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Possible Trendline Resistance.
Yet Matching EW Forecast for end of a wave 3 @ FE 161.8
Entering short trade at @239.70 or 239.88
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63064&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194007334
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #993
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 2, 2007 9:00am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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more charts for money http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
check if these charts and the counts make sense.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63067&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194007695 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63068&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194007695
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#994
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 2, 2007 9:28am
pips4life
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Just another quick post after a very short night sleep...
I promise you that this is what my M5 Fib projection looked like when I went to sleep. I was too caught up in "history repeats itself" meaning it would go further short when I went to bed... Dumb. It was a classic end of a 4-wave just barely above the top of the previous 1 wave top. Alas, you were absolutely right as to the direction -- LONG!
You can see my Fib projection levels play out amazing well through the completion of first Wave 1-5 ( "(1)" ? ), a retrace A(zigzag),B(flat),C(zigzag) ( altogether a "(2)" ), and now were into the "(3)" wave cycle of 5.
I'm not saying the levels were absolutely perfect, and I may well have adjusted them or made a 2nd projection for the "(3)" wave in progress. But for knowing only a couple of early data points, these level projections were great.
Pips4life
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63081&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194009966
hefeiddd
发表于 2009-4-10 15:29
Nov 2, 2007 10:43am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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Price looks like forming a zigzag wave for the wave 2 up which is a retracement of the wave 1 down after over balancing the sub wave 4 of the previous Impulse wave.
will be watching 61.8 , 778.6 and 85% Retracement as Potential re entry points for the Short trade.
Then Target would be C = A or the Following Percentages in relation to wave A down
61.8
100
161.8
See attached chart.
But if price does not go up to the levels I stated, then I will not enter any more trades to roll over the weekend.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63096&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194014603
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #999
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 2, 2007 10:54am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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Re enter based on 1 min chart.
Only if price goes up to 78.6% retracement .
Target FE 100.0
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63102&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194015242
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#1000
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 2, 2007 11:20am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Initial 3 wave A Down seemed enough.
However as the wave developed, it now looks like it was just the sub wave "a" for the bigger 3 wave A Down. Making it a doule Zigzag as the firat leg of the Expanded Flat or the Regular Flat Corrective Wave.
Bias choice is FE 100.0 instead of FE 127.6. The latter is within the price territory of wave 2 and overlaps with wave 1. So this cannot be allowed ( referrng to FE 127.6 level )
we will have a better idea if this is expanded or regular once the end of this double zigzag down is established.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63110&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194016964
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Nov 2, 2007 11:25am Reason: forgot to attach chart
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#1001
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 2, 2007 11:31am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,792 Posts
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1min chart
Invalid once Price goes to 238.20 (SL) which is 1 pip right below previous Low or end of what was thought to be wave 1 down.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63112&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194017444
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1002
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 2, 2007 11:33am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Could I be really right to wait for this retracement?
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63114&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194017596
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1003
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 2, 2007 1:48pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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Nice trades for today.
Patience paid off tonight.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63142&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194025519 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63143&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194025519
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#1004
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 2, 2007 1:53pm
pips4life
Member
Member Since Apr 2007
195 Posts
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Awesome analysis! Honestly, I was lost a bit in the count, so I didn't do a whole lot of trading. No matter. If we can nail this EW counting down, there are infinite opportunities to come. I'm going to review the last several days of charts and price action to see how I can anticipate the twists and turns, not just project levels that I'm not really certain will ever get hit.
I look forward to more discussion and then more live trading!
Pips4life
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#1005
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 3, 2007 2:27am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY Wave Analysis
Note that the Title States Wave Analysis.
This is because I am not confident enough to say that I have followed Fully to the letter ALL of The Elliott Wave Principle Rules.
I have studied EW and various other systems. So my current analysis is a by product of an integrated use of various Systems from Elliott Wave Principles, Fibonacci Levels for Retracement and Extention, Andrew's Pitchfork, Harmonics, Pivot Levels, Channels, Chart Patterns and a whole bunch of Technical Indicators generously by friends and just plain helpful traders in this forum and in others I have been a member of.
What I present in this post should not be taken as the PERFECT WAVE Count. Believe me, this is still far from it. But why do I post these charts? It is because I want to share what I have come up with hopefully to get other traders who know Elliott Wave Principles better than I do to help me out with my wave counts.
I am not one to challenge somebody to just give me their wave counts without even trying to first present to them my own wave counts. I want to show the GURUS that I have exerted an effort to study this and work on my own charts before I ask for their help.
I will not trump and trash my way around the room saying "I have my own wave counts but let me see your wave count first " .....
So below are the current wave counts on my charts. Ioften start with my monthly chartthen step by step zoom in on my lower timeframe charts. This way I will know my limits and potential projections for price.
My charts are still far from being the road map to great riches. But I use it as a tool along with other tools plus the ever important Rules of Money Management to trade forex.
The charts will just show the wave counts. Some details explaining why I labelled them as such and their alternatives are found on page 59 of my thread starting on Post # 879.
Should you have any questions, I will try to answer them as best as I can.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63228&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194070979 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63229&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194070979 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63230&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194070996 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63232&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194071031
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63235&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194071187 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63236&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194071187 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63237&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194071205
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
hefeiddd
发表于 2009-4-10 15:30
Nov 3, 2007 2:34am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,792 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY CHARTS
Charts Continued...
Just a note and a reminder for people viewing these charts....
You will see that I have endevoured to do micro EW counts up to 1 min charts. I find nothing wrong with it but it need to be used with caution.
EW Counting must be done on various Time frames and one needs to keep himself/herself attuned to all possible scenarios at each vlevel or timeframe.
One can actual lose sight of the bigger picture and get stuck in the lower time frame counts like I sometimes do. But it is a challenge I would love to overcome.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
PS...
If you want to know more details about my counts and why I labelled them as such..... some explanations are provided on page 59 of my thread and starting on Post #879.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63238&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194071346 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63239&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194071346 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63240&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194071371 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63241&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194071371
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63242&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194071398 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63243&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194071398
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 3, 2007 2:36am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,792 Posts
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If there is something wrong with my wave counts .... I am always willing to listen and admit that I am wrong.
And I would be very glad to start a discussion on Elliott Wave Counting here.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1008
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 3, 2007 4:10am
ronnimar
Member
Member Since Dec 2006
7 Posts
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follow up post 782.
no change in the view yet.
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63251&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194077375
Nov 3, 2007 1:02pm
FxMt
Member
Member Since Aug 2007
55 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon5.gif w4 finished?
Quote:
Originally Posted by el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
If there is something wrong with my wave counts .... I am always willing to listen and admit that I am wrong.
And I would be very glad to start a discussion on Elliott Wave Counting here.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
What if we have NOT finished w4 yet (and also "b")? I would love to see b@240,90 and c@237,20 http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/winking.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63295&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194109045
hefeiddd
发表于 2009-4-10 15:31
Nov 3, 2007 9:57pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,792 Posts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FxMt http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
What if we have NOT finished w4 yet (and also "b")? I would love to see b@240,90 and c@237,20 http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/winking.gif
FxMt...
Last Friday, When price retracedup from 237.61 by 78.6 after I waited patiently and convinced, I entered my short trade convinced that this is still going down and I went to sleep. Seeing it try to go back up again while checking the charts this weekend, then drawing that trendline Pitchfork channel, looks like a downward C is still possible down to 61.8% depending on how far a B this price is still going up.
But, 1m 5m and 15m charts are showing bearish bias. However 30m 1h and 4 hours are bullish bias.
Combinig all these details and stirring them on the wok......
I would say we would still see price going slightly up or probably GAP UP then retrace to fill the GAP for our sub wave 4 then continue on its way UP to finish sub wave 5 of this wave 3 UP towards 245-247. But that actually depends also on how deep this sub wave 4 of the wave 3 up will go down.
The depth of this sub wave 4 has something to do with the probable projection of sub wave 5. I think, the deeper the sub wave 4 will be.... then the longer ( not necessarily higher ) the sub wave 5 will be projected as it would be like trying to go deeper first to gather momentum prior to blasting off (just a thought).
But projection for the end of wave 3 (which is also end of sub wave 5) based on a wave degree of wave 3 is in the area of 245-247.
Will try to post a chart showing this later. Although you can see this projection on post #
If we have a GAP this weekend, this is a sign that we are ei
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63353&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194140231 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63354&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194140231 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63355&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194140242
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1014
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 3, 2007 10:07pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,792 Posts
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Here is that chart again from from Post 946 where I explained why I think Price is in the UPTREND Long term. yet we were supposed to experience a retracement last Friday.
I am not afraid to post my 1 minute charts which many look at as FULL of Noise and not worth looking into.
I guess the other gentleman was right. I am deaf as I continue to do micro EW in the lower time frames.. Same rules apply to the lower or the lowest timeframes as what you apply on the higher timeframes.
They are just a lot faster and could sometimes run one down. But it is very challenging. If my MT4 only had the 1 second or 5 second charts, I would do it to that mini micro EW count. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/big_grin.gif
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63358&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194141511
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1015
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 3, 2007 10:20pm
pips4life
Member
Member Since Apr 2007
195 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
FxMt...
Will try to post a chart showing this later. Although you can see this projection on post #
If we have a GAP this weekend, this is a sign that we are ei
Hi EG,
A couple of sentences above you didn't finished. I'd be interested in your thoughts on the possible meaning of a gap.
Also FYI, have you noticed... The peak on Thur 11/1 was 241.34, a mere 12 pips below the previous major peak of 241.46 on January 23, that was certainly some kind of Wave 3 top, because of the big correction that followed. It's just a big resistance level to be aware of.
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1016
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 3, 2007 11:51pm
I Wanna Trade
Member
Member Since May 2007
34 Posts
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Hi EG, I thought I drop a thought on your forum. I attached a chart and wave count for the USD/JPY, which of course the GBP/JPY is just an extension of. The GBP/JPY count I beleive is completing a complex correction right now before the next wave lower to break through the September low of 219.29, in line with the USD/JPY to break through its low of 111.58. I believe the GBP/JPY is being tugged down by the USD/JPY but pushed up by the GBP/USD as it tries to get to 2.1000 ahead of the BOE rate decision Thursday. After the rate decision the GBP/USD should decline heavily, and the GBP/JPY should fall heavily now that it can fall freely with the USD/JPY. The GBP/JPY should fail to make a new high against 231.36, but if it does, the high will be short lived before a reversal on Thursday and wave 3 gets underway to head below 219.29. Here's the 4hr chart on the USD/JPY, where it's similar to the GBP/JPY count:
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63362&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194147891
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1017
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 3, 2007 11:54pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,792 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by pips4life http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Hi EG,
A couple of sentences above you didn't finished. I'd be interested in your thoughts on the possible meaning of a gap.
Also FYI, have you noticed... The peak on Thur 11/1 was 241.34, a mere 12 pips below the previous major peak of 241.46 on January 23, that was certainly some kind of Wave 3 top, because of the big correction that followed. It's just a big resistance level to be aware of.
You are a fast one Pips4life to catch that.... I may not be able to cope with your speed. I thought no one would be interested how we can all blend our anajysis with the rest of the chart patterns and technical indicators that abound arounsd us.....
For the Post # ______ I actually decided ( in the middle of my thoughts ) to just post the charts from my previous posts outlining how I expected price to travel) Sorry I left that sentence hanging without referencing to it when I posted the charts in the following posts.
As for the GAP....... it usually signifies that we are in the middle of a wave 3 or nearing a wave 5 end. Another or actually the most important thing about GAPS is that they more often than not need to be filled. There may be exceptions to this, but very very few.
So in this context, I would foresee a slight GAP UP to finish this B wave inside this wave 4, then it would start to come down to finish the C wave down of the wave 4 as you can see in my chart below.
I know that my wave counts going up from 237.61 does not follow the obvious rules of EW. But I am also lost with that so I am looking at chart patterns and higher time frames for potential retracement levels and projection levels.
As I mentioned earlier or in a number of posts before these, since I see wave 2 which is same degree as this wave 4 price is in now as a simple zigzag, then by rule of alternation, I expect wave 4 to be expanding side ways. And when I saw that the 1st leg down of the wave 4 was subdivided into 3 waves, then I further assumed as a guide that we will expect a flat or an expanded corrective wave.
So if first leg of corrective wave is subdivided into 3, then we expect a flat or corrective wave.
If subdivided into 5 waves, then expect a Zigzag
But you also need to watch out for the combinations. That one I still have to figure out....
That is the reason why in an ealier post I mentioned that we would get near previous high of 241.35 as this would be the case if we had a FLAT corrective wave where B ends slightly near the origin of wave A. and the Potential projection of 242.23 up to 242.78 are the limits of a move going up for the wave B of an expanded flat.
Then a C wave should go down again.
I was more bias that were going for that expanded wave as it is also possible that the Bull Trend is too strong that it did not wait for C = A for this Wave A. and was in a hurry to get back to the uptrend going for the extended flat so a higher B.
But then I was watching this wave B develop and I got lost.
Now that I am writing about it .... something tells me that probably the reason I am not getting very clear signals in terms of wave formaton on this wave B up is because I am trying to expect the top of it now when infact, it is probably gearing up for that expanded flat wave on this B wave Up.
I will try to work on the charts again a litlle later.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63363&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194148409
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
hefeiddd
发表于 2009-4-10 15:32
Nov 4, 2007 3:08am
FxMt
Member
Member Since Aug 2007
55 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif My Daily count
Quote:
Originally Posted by el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Here is that chart again from from Post 946 where I explained why I think Price is in the UPTREND Long term. yet we were supposed to experience a retracement last Friday.
I am not afraid to post my 1 minute charts which many look at as FULL of Noise and not worth looking into.
I guess the other gentleman was right. I am deaf as I continue to do micro EW in the lower time frames.. Same rules apply to the lower or the lowest timeframes as what you apply on the higher timeframes.
They are just a lot faster and could sometimes run one down. But it is very challenging. If my MT4 only had the 1 second or 5 second charts, I would do it to that mini micro EW count. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/big_grin.gif
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Will HS pattern fail? We have a strong upward channel...
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63370&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194163195
I will still be keeping watch on how the Waves Develop onwards.
If there is any change in direction, I will try to keep this analysis updated.
But I will continue to post charts on a daily basis or when I have the time.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63407&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194184966
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
If you see anything wrong with this post, you are free to correct me.
PS. with reference to wave analysis, i think it would not be a match up. I would stick to my wave analysis which I can interpret at much lower timeframes.
But offhand, if the Head and shoulders was to materialize , then this wave up from 237.60 is probably just the Wave B up of a Corrective wave 4 as initially expected and would be expected to end just below the 241.35 high.
And expected to go down again and possibly breaching the end of wave A slightly lower. See 2nd chart.
No chart yet to show how it would probably look like if it was an extended flat or just plain getting back to the Bull trend and being in a wave 5 up.Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63421&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194189998 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63423&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194190861
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS