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发表于 2009-4-10 18:19
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Dec 4, 2007 5:38am
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So far so good...Going as planned
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__________________
It is better to be approximately right than precisely wrong
To be the Best, you have to beat the Rest!!!
It doesn't matter what you know, it's how you use it...
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#1293
 Dec 4, 2007 8:09am
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Cool...just a final 5th wave to go before we head back up...Possible targets for long 228.50(in case of a truncated 5th wave), but ideally should go to 231.50
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__________________
It is better to be approximately right than precisely wrong
To be the Best, you have to beat the Rest!!!
It doesn't matter what you know, it's how you use it...
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#1294
Dec 4, 2007 5:17pm
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Jus waiting to see if this might be the end of wave 5 of Wave C of WAVE 4.
Thou the downside (if any) should be limited to 225.00.
Also keeping options open for possible Double-Threes complex correction, preferably a flat or a triangle
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__________________
It is better to be approximately right than precisely wrong
To be the Best, you have to beat the Rest!!!
It doesn't matter what you know, it's how you use it...
|
#1295
Dec 4, 2007 5:49pm
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I think you are doing Great Kevin.
Below is my Revised Count on 1 Hour chart.
I am more inclined with the Blue Option 3 Count.
I am experimenting on ignoring wave 4 overlaps with wave 1 if it is due to a spike.
EG
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__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Dec 4, 2007 6:00pm Reason: Replaced chart
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#1296
Dec 4, 2007 5:57pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by el grande 
I think you are doing Great Kevin.
Below is my Revised Count on 1 Hour chart.
I am more inclined with the Blue Option 3 Count.
I am experimenting on ignoring wave 4 overlaps with wave 1 if it is due to a spike.
EG
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Thank you EG
I think you forgot to add your chart
__________________
It is better to be approximately right than precisely wrong
To be the Best, you have to beat the Rest!!!
It doesn't matter what you know, it's how you use it...
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#1297
Dec 4, 2007 6:20pm
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Kevin ... I actually was in the process of replacing the earlier chart I posted with the text .
Had to replace it to show a better FIT for the Magenta Channel to parallel the lines from the side of the wave 2 and the wave 4.
]
Trying to show an example as per textbook that when wave 0 1 and 2 are available, you draw a channel based on the wave 0 and 1 side to see potential resistance for wave 3.
And when potential wave 3 has probably ended and normally with a spike then followed by a wave 4 formation, then we adjust the channel to use wave 2 and wave 4 ends as the basis for the parallel lines against the wave 1 end.
Normally we would see that wave 3 as an overthrow.
Wave 5 is then perceived to reach the other side of the channel from where wave 4 ended.
Of course wave 5 can still make for an overthrow on that channel or may not even reach that other side of the channel.
I would normally watch out for the wave equality also as wave 5 develops especially if wave 3 is extended which would be the case if I select Option 3 Wave count.
Which brings me to watch watch out for a possible wave 5 failure that could terminate @ 229.19 both satisfying a wave 5 failure and the guideline for wave equality.
Still, I am open to seeing GBPJPY go further up as there are also cases where both wave 3 and wave 5 can both be extended.
EG
Attached Thumbnails
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#1298
Dec 4, 2007 11:11pm
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Let me share what I have come up with on my chart and explain to you the details.
Below is a revised chart to show more of the details that I found before and also the ones I am seeing now.
Anyway, let me explain the details on my chart.
1st. There are the 3 options for the wave counts on my GBPJPY Chart.
a. I am more inclined with the Blue Wave Count Option.
b. Using the FIB Extention tool on MT4, I have wave 3 at FE 161.8 - 200.0 range which fits what I have iften observed with GBPJPY.
c. sub wave 4 of the wave 3 blue is quite deep which is a bit over 50% retracement of sub wave 3 (magenta FIB Retracement). Note I ignored the overlap of sub wave 4 into sub wave 1 inside wave 3.
d. sub wave 5 of wave 3 Blue then terminates just a litlle above sub wave 3.
Next I drew the Aquamarine channel to illustrate a Channeling which is happening here. (Actually I was testing the Guideline on Prechter's Book). Here I initially drew a channel using wave 0 1 and 2 with wave 0 and 2 trendline as the basis of one side of the channel while the otherside was banked on wave 1 end.
Then I was looking for the wave 3 projection together with the projection using the FIB extention tool. Although it has been noted that wave 3 almost always makes a throwover.
The same channel ( I just realized now ) was supposed to be used to project wave 4.
With the following features:
a. channelling guideline,
b. rule of alternation ( wave 2 was a sideways expansion so expecting wave 4 to be zigzag) ,
c. wave equality C=A for zigzag waves
d. wave 4 rule on overlapping with wave 1 ( with leniency on my part here due to spikes and volatility of this pair )
Now, we have not hit the lower side of the Aquamarine channel for our wave 4. So there could still be a possibility of price still coming down to kiss that channel or maybe not.
Incase it does not, then we should see GBPJPY climbing now with still a possibility of the retrace towards this bottom channel side for the wave 2 before really climbing any higher.
Fib Tools on my chart:
Turquoise Fib Extentioon tool is use to project the wave 3 and wave 5. wave 3 was in the FE 161.8 - 200.0 range. I would be looking at wave 5 to be in the 261.8 - 300.0 range or a possibility of the FE 425 level.
Magenta Fib Retracement tool is to illustrate the 50% retracement of sub wave 4 from the length of sub wave 3 of wave 3.
Yellow Fib extention tool was used to project the wave c of wave 4 Magenta . Although I preferred to use the retracement guideline for wave 4 being between 50-61.8% of wave 3 though normally at 38% or even 23.6% only if the prevailing maintrend is quite strong.
Blue Fib Extention Tool was used to project potential end of Blue wave 4
Red Fib Retracement Tool was to illustrate the wave equality where Magenta wave 5 was equal to Magenta wave 1 of the Blue wave 3. in this case it exceeded a little bit.
Also you will see the 3 Magenta Horizontal lines
a. Top is Possible support of a previous Resistance based on the wave 1 Magenta
b. middle as you go down is another potential support based on the wave b of Blue wave 2
c. and lastly at the bottom is the top of the Blue wave 1 which sets the limit of the lowest that wave 4 could go down to.
Broken yellow lines were support and resistance trendlines.
I am open to any constructive criticisms for the chart I just posted here
EG
Attached Thumbnails
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#1299
Dec 4, 2007 11:40pm
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Potential retrace now for GBPJPY wave 2 down towards previous low or arounf 50 to 76.4% of wave 1
EG
Attached Images
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#1300
Dec 5, 2007 12:09am
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updated charts
Attached Images 
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#1301
Dec 5, 2007 12:30am
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Caution.. though for EW.
Sometimes a wave 4 correction retraces the wave 3 by 23.6% only when the main trend is very strong (but normally 38.2% or the 50-61.8%)
Now I am not that sure with wave 2 if that also applies . But I have not seen that happen yet.
So what I would do is enter at 23.6% and another one at 50-61.8%.
I bring this up because I already see a 5 wave structure on the 1 minute chart and I see a pin bar on the 15 min chart.
EG
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#1302
Dec 5, 2007 1:59am
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possible unfolding if it does retrace now.
but could encounter some support at
Daily Pivot 226.63
Weekly Pivot 226.48
100 sma 15min 226.38
other than that it is free to retrace down to 50-100% of the previous rise.
EG
Attached Images
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#1303
Dec 5, 2007 2:31am
| | long time no see
hi el, long time no see~
I want to know why your fib extension is listing the price also... How can I set this?
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#1304
Dec 5, 2007 2:38am
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Previous assumption may have been too early.
I actually entered a short from 226.82 which I thought was initially the top of a sub wave 1.
then after seeing the 1st 5 wave structure down entered a Long trade.
So I had 2 opposing trades. However I exited the Long trade at around 10 pip loss as it went up ( that includes the 20 pip spread for my broker ).
Anyway, I still have my 2 original long trades while nursing the short trade. exited the new long trade for a 10 pip loss.( which could have been in profit by now with that rally on the 5min chart.
I should have maintained as originally planned since the main trend was Bullish. ( just another lesson learned.) Anyway I was still looking for a retrace towards that previous low and we are expecting a bearish main trend soon.
I would describe this as a very crude hedge taht I apply in my trades.
EG
Attached Images
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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