一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Oct 6, 2007 5:21am

FxMt Member Member Since Aug 2007 55 Posts

Quote: Originally Posted by el grande Chart 1 I should have posted this first before the chart on the upper post so you can better see the transition. Anyway, I tried enhacing the previous chart to have more details for the final Analysis. I hope somebody makes money out of this should it ever unfold as such. EG Hi EG, can I ask you how do you see this count on H1 according to your count? Attached Thumbnails

#744    Oct 6, 2007 6:48am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

Quote: Originally Posted by FxMt Hi EG, can I ask you how do you see this count on H1 according to your count? Hello FxMt You will see that I have revised my wave c up count in the next post without invalidating yet my Projections for the medium to Long term. I will go for your Questioned Labelling for 1? and 2? EG __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS Last edited by el grande, Oct 6, 2007 8:28am

#745    Oct 6, 2007 7:04am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

Short Term Projection for GBPJPY I have revised my wave count for the sub wave c UP of big wave B UP. It seems that wave 3 inside wave c is finished after getting into a micro EW Count. This has resulted in What I see as a diagonal triangle / Wedge where wave1 is allowed to overlap with wave 4 in this case because this occurred in a wave 5 inside wave 3. This is further supported with what we now see as a wedge that we can apply the Wedge theory to. ( As far as I can remeber, the original theory was npt allowed to be discussed here. How ever, I am discussing this based on EW theory and chart Patterns which seem to have the same strategies ). Anyway.... to move on with this you will see in the chart that somehow things look like they will fall into place and the whole thing looks too IDEAL and too good to be TRUE. But if it does unfold as such, may you all profit from this. EG Ok I give up... I have rebooted my computer as I am unable to attach new charts to this posts for continuity. Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS Last edited by el grande, Oct 6, 2007 7:26am

#746    Oct 6, 2007 7:32am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

followed by and finally I am I able to attach all my charts EG Attached Thumbnails                __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS Last edited by el grande, Oct 6, 2007 7:48am

#747    Oct 6, 2007 8:12am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

Allow me to correct my monthly chart projection Limits. In the earlier chart I referred to wave 4 limit as 208.14. This was a mistake as this is wave 1 inside wave 3. Since we are now in wave 4 inside wave C, then the wave 4 limit should be end of wave 1 in wave C @ 192.43 I would maintain my stand now that price will not go lower than previous low of 219.31 as some major analysts have predicted ( well... they probably know more. I am but a newbie here. ) But based on the number of things I have tossed into the cooking pan of analysis using EWT, Harmonics, FIBS and the Wedge this is how I see things to turn out with this pair. Maybe I am just trying to fit evrything to some thing very idealistic... EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS Last edited by el grande, Oct 6, 2007 8:25am Reason: replaced with a better chart

#748    Oct 6, 2007 9:18am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

Monday up to Tuesday... I would be looking forward to watching Price drop to 235.74 or ;ower . But not lower than 234.22 Then if the bounce appears and pricer reverses, then I would expect price to go up the range of 245.21 to 247.51 for the end of Big Wave B for the rest of the week till next week. That would sound like a nice carry trade till next week. The only major Drop that I expect to happen when this Big wave B occurs is a 38.2% retracement / Drop towards 235.32 I maintain that view because I am expecting this to play out a Bearish Butterfly on the Daily Chart while unfolding its EW Count. From 235.32....... It will be BACK to the Carry Trade. Let us not follow the crowd. EG __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#749    Oct 7, 2007 4:18am

kenari05 Member Member Since Jun 2006 294 Posts

can you analyze australian dollars?

#750    Oct 7, 2007 8:24am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

My GBPJPY Analysis and Forecast Starts Here (Explained) hhhhhhmmmmmm....... I was hoping to stir the pot and derive some form of discussion on the points I presented in my chart specially because it was not solely based on pure Elliott Wave Theory. Maybe the way it was presented makes it difficult to understand... So I will try again and try to break the analysis 1 by 1. I will start off with the 5m chart. First, I would like to set the basic or general direction that I am seeing for this Pair. Using the monthly chart, I believe that we are in a Wave 4 Sideways moving corrective wave. Wave 2 on the monthly chart as you will see is a sharp Zigzag wave. And by the RULE OF ALTERNATION Based on Elliott Wave Principles, if wave 2 is a simple sharp zigzag wave then we would expect wave 4 to be a complex sideways moving corrective wave. That is probably why we see this wave 4 to be expanding sideways. And by the looks of it, it does not look like it is forming a triangle. In any corrective wave, we initially see a 3 wave structure ABC. I then make an initial assumption that C = A. I use the FIB Extention Tool to project this FE 100.0% using Points 0 1 and 2. Where : 0 is the origin of wave A 1 is the end of wave A 2 is the end of Wave B FE 100.0 is my Initial Target for Wave C end. I hope that I have explained my self well on this one. Please refer to the attached monthly chart and NOTE that completion or attaining this target will take months or even years. I am just sort of giving you an over view of this pairs price direction. In EW Theory, we believe that sub waves comprice these bigger waves we see in the monthly charts. This means that the same EW Principles are applied to the Price movement in the lower time frames as is applied on the higher TFs and that same waves that follow the same EW rules make up the bigger waves. Kindly note the Purple ABC. This is how I see wave 4 unfolding. Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

hefeiddd

Oct 7, 2007 8:54am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

You may be wondering why I am repeating these posts.... Initially I thought posting charts and leaving notes on my charts would be enough. Now I think, many who are not familiar with EWTheory/Principles may have a difficult time grasping what I am trying to present here. Not that I think these are all correct. But I am hoping to draw some form of discussion on the GBPJPY EW Count and hope that I can have my counts validated by other traders who use the EW theory in their arsenal of tools trading this pair. So Let us move on... Still on the monthly chart, as you can see, based on my chart I am already assuming that GBPJPY is now on the Wave C Up in this monthly chart. Wave C we must remember is an impulse wave which is subdivided into 5 waves ( YELLOW LABEL ). Following the guidelines in numbering or labelling impulse waves, you will see on the next chart that we already finished wave 3 yellow and we are now seeing Wave 4 inside this wave C. I have skipped the weekly chart as we can still clearly see the wave structure on the monthly chart. Note also where I have placed my target for wave 5 which is the end of this wave C up. That is the FE 100.0 @ 259.93. Using the FIB Extention tool which You see in Pale green using the Points 0 1 and 2 129.32 241.06 148.19 Now before we reach wave 5 end, we still have to tackle wave 4. First we must determine what to expect wave 4 to be in terms of its structure. we there fore apply the rule of alternation after we determine the structure of wave 2. As you can see on the chart, wave 2 is a complex sideways expanding corrective wave. Therefore we expect wave 4 to have the simple sharp zigzag corrective wave form. Now here are some points I have gathered to remind me of what governs a wave 4 development. 1. wave 4 does not overlap with wave 1. unless it is in a wave leading diagonal triangle. since this is a wave C, then wave 4 is allowed to retrace down up to 192.43. 2. In terms of Percentage retracement, wave 4 can retrace the length of wave 3 from 23.6% up to 50% Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#752    Oct 7, 2007 9:15am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

Ok... I have missed to label the end of wave 3 yellow on my monthly chart. This is the High @ 251.07 on my chart. see enhanced chart below. So drawing a Fib retracement scale from end of wave 2 up to end of wave 3.... you will see that the retrace range of 23.6 down to 50% is from 179.37 up to 234.15... and in many cases 38.2% retrace is most common. Now.. note also that Prechter mentions in his book that wave 4 normally ( not alsways though ) ends at or near the termination point of a subwave 4 of the previous Im,pulse Wave 3. If we then combine all this guidelines... It is possible ( BUT NOT ABSOLUTE ) that we may be seeing the possible low of this wave 4 even if it is not yet complete. Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#753    Oct 7, 2007 9:39am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

GBPJPY Daily CHART On the Daily Chart.. Initially the move from 251.07 down to 219.31 was considered to be a Big Wave A. This could take the form of 3 or 5 waves. We can clearly see a 3 wave structure on the chart. The only way for us to be able to confirm that Big wave A is complete at 219.31 is by seeing the wave 4 count of a `12345 count get invalidated. That is if the retracement up goes higher than the assumed wave 1 end at 237.60. Our current price is at 238.71 with an earlier high at 238.84. This confirms the end of Big Wave A at 219.31 So we are in Big wave B now. The Rule of alternation also applies to Wave A and Wave B. If wave a is a sharp or simple zigzag then wave B will be a complex sideways expanding corrective wave. In this case, Big Wave A is a sharp zigzag wave so Big Wave B must be a complex sideways expanding corrective wave. As we can see on the Daily chart, Big Wave has expanded sideways and formed a triangle in its sub wave B also. Big wave B though classified as an expanded wave may also simply be described as a 3 wave structure ABC even if the sub wave B is a triangle. sub wave a and sub wave b ( triangle ) already looks complete. So we should now be seeing the sub wave c inside this Big wave B to be unfolding. Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#754    Oct 7, 2007 10:25am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

4hour chart Now that we are in wave c which is divided into 5 waves as an impulse wave, This is where I have to options of labelling me EW Counts on this Pair. First I use the FIB extention tool to project wave 3 and wave 5 when I can see that a POSSIBLE count for wave 1 and wave 2 is present. Option 1 ______ First sign is where I positioned the Magenta FIB Extention tool. This means that wave one started at 229.20 which is also the end of the triangle sub wave b and the wave 1 is at 234.22 and wave 2 is at 229.72 Option 2 ______ Second potential count iswave 1 still at 234.22 while wave 2 is at 233.67 I will select Option 1 because I came across a literature and I can not remember where.... but it states that sub wave 1 of wave 3 must go beyond end of higher degree wave 1. This is only satisfied by Option 1 in Magenta. As a guideline then I will set my target for sub wave 3 at the FE 161.8 of this drawn FIB Extention tool Magenta. And this is at 239.19. Referring to the chart again, you will see that we are very near this price level on the GBPJPY. Let us dissect the wave 3 further on this 4 hour chart. We know that wave 3 ( 33 here ) must never be the shortest. Seeing what seems a 5 wave structure already finished, let us check if the previous rule has been violated. Again we use the fib extention tool on each impusle wave. we see wave 33 is a little less than 100% of wave 31 ( Pale Green FIB Extention Tool. This means that wave 33 is shorter than wave 31. therefore, wave 35 must be shorter than wave 33 to adhere to the rule. Let us measure or compare the current length of wave 35 to wave 33 using the BLUE FIB Extention tool. Here we see that wave 35 is just about 80% of wave 33. With this , it means that wave 33 is not the shortest comparing to wave 31 and possible wave 35. wave 31, 32 and 33 seem to have already exhibited the complete characteristics of their wave nature and completetd the sub wave counts. This leaves us to confirm the remaining wave 35 PS. the chart below supercedes the previous EW Count I made and posted as a revision prior to this specially where I label wave 2 in the sub wave c. Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#755    Oct 7, 2007 11:14am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

Now a cleaner chart on the 4h TF Projecting target for wave 3 navajo white using the magenta FIB Extention Tool.... this is at FE 161.8 @ 239.46 Price is just about to reach it with the Friday's climb. Using the internal wave structure of wave 3 navajo white using the yellow waves 30 , 31 and 32...... based on the Pale Green FIB Extention tool, wave 35 is expected to reach FE 261.8 @ 245.01 But using the projections of the Pale Green FIB extention tool seems to over shoot the actual natural target. Besides the internal structure of the wave 3 navajo white is not the usual type as it seems that it is wave 31 which is extended and not wave 33. Furthermore, as I have explained in the earlier post wave 33 is found to be shorter than wave 31. therfore wave 35 must be shorter than wave 33. And as you can see the 2nd chart, this rule does not seem to have been violated it. But I must be able to prove that wave 35 is already finished or at least will be lower than the BLUE FE 100.0 @ 239.60 higher than 239.60 will invalidate the wave count inside wave 3 navajo white because this will make wave 35 longer than wave 33 which is already shorter than wave 31. we must also remember that Big Wave B on the daily chart normally retraces Big Wave A up to 78.6% which is already at 244.27 so we can not just end wave 35 or wave 3 navajo white @ 244.27 since this suggested end of Big wave B where we are at its sub wave c and probably at the end of its wave 3 navajo white would seem very unlikely considering that we still have to make a retracement of commonly 38.2 percent of wave 33before wave 5 navajo white for its sub wave c end. so i had to use other tools to seek validation or potential confirmation if we really saw the end of wave 35 or wave 3 navajo white. and the wedge theory was brought up which I encountered in the Daily GBPJPY Analysis thread. after checking and making some calculations, I think I found a reason to seek additional confirmation using a deeper knowledge of EWT. then I got reminded about the leading diagonal triangle which when found in a wave 5 (here it is wave 35) will render a wave count valid. and here we are, i believe we have a leading diagonal triangle in this 4 hour chart. Next step is to prove that the internal structure of this leading diagobnal triangle conforms to the EW Rules. Attached Thumbnails       __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS Last edited by el grande, Oct 7, 2007 11:31am Reason: added text and explanations

hefeiddd

Oct 7, 2007 11:42am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

Proving validity of Leading Diagonal Triangle / Wedge let us jump into the 15 minute TF. you will see that in the attached chart, we have what seems a valid and qualified internal subwaves of this leading diagonal . next to prove is that wave 55 on attached chart for the end of wave 35 must have a valid 5 wave impulse wave. which it seems to be exhibiting in the 2nd chart. Attached Thumbnails       __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#757    Oct 7, 2007 12:47pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

Assuming that wave 35 is valid and that wave 3 navajo white has ended, We can only further confirm this once price breaches or falls below the lower side of the wedge. When that happens, I would be looking at the 38.2% retracement of this wave 3 navajo white for the wave 4 navajo white. like I said earlier, wave 4 retraces wave 3 from 23.6 to 50%. and commonly it retraces 38.2% Now, notice where 38.2% retracement falls and compare that to the estimated Price based on the wedge theory... The attached chart would show that they both fall in almost the same area. Should we call this mere coincidence? Anyway, based on EWT, wave 4 is allowed to retrace up to the end of wave 1 at 234.22 though this exceeds the suggested limit of 50%. Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS Last edited by el grande, Oct 7, 2007 1:01pm Reason: fixed chart labels

#758    Oct 7, 2007 1:09pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

Potential scenarios for this week 1. Throwever of price outside the wedge above it upperside going for the FE 161.8 @ 239.46. 38.2% retraces falls at 235.74 2. Price has seen its wave 35 end at 238.84, then 38.2% retracement is at 235.36. But like I said, this is just the ideal coincidence. And based on EWT, price for wave 4 is allowed to retrace till end of wave 1 at 234.22 The 38.2% retracement and that wave 4 limitation may be translated as strong support levels. If price goes lower than 234.22, then my EW Count is invalid. __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS Last edited by el grande, Oct 7, 2007 8:25pm Reason: typo

#759    Oct 7, 2007 1:27pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

If wave 4 plays out as expected and making my EW count valid, then price should continue to climb again for the wave 5 navajo white. Sights are set for the FE 261.8 - 300.0 of the Red FIB Extention Tool at 245.48 - 247.48 Incidentally, this range also falls in the same area as the 61.8% - 78.6% ratracement of the Big Wave A to attain Big Wave B. Another coincidence? Please not that on the chart, another thing to watch out for is the estimated time at which price will meet the estimated price target of the Bullish wedge retracement. where a vertical line is drawn from the intersection of the extended support and resistance trendlines that formed the wedge and see where that vertical line intersected the trendline formed by extending the line using points 1 and 4 of the price bounce inside the wedge. And here it is estimated to be attained at 2007.10.15.20:00 GMT +6. Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#760    Oct 7, 2007 1:42pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

Jamming Area for the FIBS Zooming out and looking atthe 4 hour chart again..... we canb see that a number of projections using the FIB Extention tool have their estimated price levels almost in the same area as the others. Let us take this 1 by 1. 1. Big Wave B yellow is seen as a 3 wave B were if C=A ( Aqua ABC ) then C is equal to FE 100.0 @ 244.39 2. Wave 5 navajo white is estimated to be in the range of FE 261.8 - 300.0 (Magenta FIB Extention Tool) 245.48 - 247.78 3. Incidentally, based on a guideline, Big Wave B is expected to retrace Big Wave A by 61.8 to 78.6% and 78.6% is at 244.27 Golden FIB retracement Levels on the right side of the chart. ALL boxed in Yellow Multiple coincidences? Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#761    Oct 7, 2007 2:15pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

Attached to this post are Charts which I present to show an ideal classic potential scenario for the GBPJPY Pair probably forecastiong what to expect till next year. First shows A Potential Harmonic Pattern applied to the EW and Fib based chart. I am making probably too many assumptions here. But as I said before.... this is justa potential scenario for this pair. various validating factors need to be monitored to determine if this is still a potential turnout for this pair as time goes by. 2nd chart would show labels for EW and also for the Potential Harmonic Pattern which I think would fall in the classification of a Bearish Butterfly. Attached Thumbnails       __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#762    Oct 7, 2007 2:44pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

After you analyze the last 2 charts above, you will probably or definitely notice that my wave C yellow is too short for your taste... First let me answer your question "WHY?" ..... A thought crossed my mind to see a possible relationship between EW and Harmonic Patterns. Although wave 4 has not fully evolved yet, based on the projections I made.... Big wave B would fall on the 78.6% retracement of Wave A. Based on that, I checked the Guide line for harmonic Patterns that would possibly allow a "B" which makes a 78.6% retracement of the XA Leg. And I came up with 2. First is the Bearish Butterfly Second is the Bullish AB=CD I will expound on this later. need to get some sleep out here. EG PS. Time Element on the chart has no valid precision yet. I was just toying on the possibilities. I am still working on how I can include Time into my analysis Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS Last edited by el grande, Oct 7, 2007 7:07pm

#763    Oct 7, 2007 7:57pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

In my earlier posts before Post # 750, I thought there was just 1 Harmonic/Gartley Pattern that would fit teh Potential structure of the EW Count I thought I was seeing and will see in GBPJPY. While doing this step by step presentation, I realized that there was another Pattern that would fit in. That is why now we have Bearish Butterfly in combination with the Running Flat corrective wave for the Wave 4 And a 2nd pattern which is the Bullish AB=CD The Bearish Butterfly is projected to unfold when 1st Price based on EWT should reach FE 261.8 ( 245.48 Red Fib Extention Tool ) of wave 012 inside wave wave c of the Big wave B Up 2nd this also coincides with the 78.6% retracement of the Big Wave A (244.27). and 3rd This will give us a 78.6% retracement (244.27) of the XA leg 251.07 - 219.31 ) for Point B in the Harmonic Pattern To "make it fit" into this pattern and still find it valid, price then needs to retrace down only by 38.2% toward 234.74 for its Big Wave C down. This is still valid as a complete corrective wave and classified as a Running flat corrective wave even if it does not go down lower than 219.31 which is the end of Big Wave A. This can happen when the main Trend which is Bullish is too strong and thus leads price to move up again. If this turns out to be the case, Wave 5 Of the Wave C in the monthly Chart will thus begin and unfold to possibly complete the CD leg of this potential Bearish Butterfly and also complete the wave 5 inside the Wave C in the monthly chart. This will be valid only if price projection reaches 1.27 retracement up of the XA leg for the end of Point D. which could take weeks or months. Note that in the chart ( please excuse it for looking a bit messy. I had to put in most of the tools to have less charts and see most if not all tools and projections in just 1 chart for easy viewing )Bearish Butterfly point D projection ( 127% retrace of XA leg falls on 259.85) and a valid AB=CD also falls in that area at 259.70. In addition, wave C end in the monthly chart is projected to be in the same vicinity if C=A in the monthly @ 259.93 This Bearish Butterfly Pattern is seen as the 2 Blue triangles on my Chart EG PS. Note that if Price goes beyond the limits that have been set using the Bearish Butterfly Pattern, Then these Projections and Forecast becomes invalid. Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#764    Oct 7, 2007 8:19pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

Alternative Wave 4 Yellow Structure As an alternative structure to what I have presented above, it is also possible "to fit or expect to fit Price to another Harmonic Pattern " as it unfolds its EW Count too. And that is the Bullish AB=CD where we see price 1. still reach 78.6% (244.27) retracement for the Big Wave B 2. internal structure of Big Wave B project its end at FE 100.0 at 245.48 C=A 3. then see a possible fall to 212.51 which is FE 100.0 of the C=A of a Zigzag corrective wave 4. ( which incidentally is a requirement for the Bullish AB=CD) 4. Note that it also coincides with the 127% percent ( Magenta Fib Retracement ) Projection for the retracement of the AB leg of the Bullish AB=CD Pattern and this lands @ 212.57 which is just 6 pips off the mark. See the 1st blue triangle and match it with the Pale Green Triangle EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#765    Oct 7, 2007 8:54pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

Diagonal Triangle Theory on this 4 hour chart is invalid now??? Quote: Originally Posted by el grande Now that we are in wave c which is divided into 5 waves as an impulse wave, This is where I have to options of labelling me EW Counts on this Pair. First I use the FIB extention tool to project wave 3 and wave 5 when I can see that a POSSIBLE count for wave 1 and wave 2 is present. Option 1 ______ First sign is where I positioned the Magenta FIB Extention tool. This means that wave one started at 229.20 which is also the end of the triangle sub wave b and the wave 1 is at 234.22 and wave 2 is at 229.72 Option 2 ______ Second potential count iswave 1 still at 234.22 while wave 2 is at 233.67 I will select Option 1 because I came across a literature and I can not remember where.... but it states that sub wave 1 of wave 3 must go beyond end of higher degree wave 1. This is only satisfied by Option 1 in Magenta. As a guideline then I will set my target for sub wave 3 at the FE 161.8 of this drawn FIB Extention tool Magenta. And this is at 239.19. Referring to the chart again, you will see that we are very near this price level on the GBPJPY. Let us dissect the wave 3 further on this 4 hour chart. We know that wave 3 ( 33 here ) must never be the shortest. Seeing what seems a 5 wave structure already finished, let us check if the previous rule has been violated. Again we use the fib extention tool on each impusle wave. we see wave 33 is a little less than 100% of wave 31 ( Pale Green FIB Extention Tool. This means that wave 33 is shorter than wave 31. therefore, wave 35 must be shorter than wave 33 to adhere to the rule. Let us measure or compare the current length of wave 35 to wave 33 using the BLUE FIB Extention tool. Here we see that wave 35 is just about 80% of wave 33. With this , it means that wave 33 is not the shortest comparing to wave 31 and possible wave 35. wave 31, 32 and 33 seem to have already exhibited the complete characteristics of their wave nature and completetd the sub wave counts. This leaves us to confirm the remaining wave 35 PS. the chart below supercedes the previous EW Count I made and posted as a revision prior to this specially where I label wave 2 in the sub wave c. Diagonal Triangle / Wedge Theory for what I thought was the 5th wave inside wave 3 could now be invalid because price still went up higher than 238.84 to 239.20. Or is this the throwover to the upside? But checking the price structure, it may still be valid with the revised count on the attached chart. Giving a clearer 5 wave structure for the sub wave C inside that zigzag wave 5 inside the leading diagonal triangle. EG My mind Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

hefeiddd

Oct 7, 2007 10:29pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

Update for Potential Direction on GBPJPY Attached chart modified on the Fib Retracement Levels due to the new High. Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#768    Oct 7, 2007 10:29pm

marketwavez Senior Member Member Since Nov 2006   768 Posts

Here is a look at the Usd/Yen going into next week.... ------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Price action appears to be moving towards the " End of a Wave 3 " -------------------------------------------------------------------------- ( Double Click on chart to Enlarge ) Attached Thumbnails

#769    Oct 7, 2007 11:16pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

Quote: Originally Posted by marketwavez Here is a look at the Usd/Yen going into next week.... ------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Price action appears to be moving towards the " End of a Wave 3 " -------------------------------------------------------------------------- ( Double Click on chart to Enlarge ) It looks like GBPJPY is following a similar Pattern to How USDJPY is unfolding. EG __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#770    Oct 7, 2007 11:25pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

Triple Top on 4h? A triple Top may be forming on the 4h chart of GBPJPY. However, the first 2 candles indicate bullishness. 1st candle has a long bullidh body 2nd candle has a long lower shadow with a very narrow bearish Body and barely any upper wick and this indicates Bullishness in the market so that is at least 2 out of 3 for the triple topwhose thrid candle is not yet finished. on the 1hour chart, this is already a 4 point top and now shows an ascending triangle with an initially flat top level. and this indicates bullishness also. So if I see price closing above 239.20, this means that the Bulls are in control of the market. Attached Thumbnails       __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#771    Oct 9, 2007 12:36am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

UPDATE 100907 I am a slow typist and prparing the charts take quite a lot of time for me. So I will post the charts first and explain later. maybe the others can cderive some ideas from these charts. EG Step 1 on the Daily I have revised my Wave B count to have a running flat joined by an x wave to a triangle. Some thing was bothering about the earlier triangle I drew plus the rule of alrenation betweeen an A and a B wave. Hopefully , this count will be a better one I think. Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#772    Oct 9, 2007 12:42am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

Step 2 - 4H On the 4 hour chart Target is 237.40 before a retracement up for the sub wave 2 up for a main move down Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

hefeiddd

Oct 9, 2007 12:46am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

Step 3 _ 1h on the 1 hour chart Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#774    Oct 9, 2007 12:50am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

Step 4 m30 on the m30 chart Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#775    Oct 9, 2007 12:54am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

Step 5 _ m15 my 15m chart Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#776    Oct 9, 2007 1:16am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

m15 detailing route watching if it will unfold as per chart But first needs to go LOWER than 237.81 to dispell possibility of being a wave 4 retracement of wave 3. Inner waves of the suspected wave 1 down are labelled in RED. note first sub wave 1 red down at 238.59 then a more than 61.8% retracement for the wave 2 Red up. Wave 3 down is seen with a bearish pennant (small wave 2 inside wave 3) followed by a symmetrical triangle ( triangle corrective wave 4 - indicating a continuing trend down ) waiting for wave 5 inside this wave 3 to finish of at the target range of FE 161.8 @ 237.55 to FE 200.00@ 237.13. Then expect a retrace of about 38.2% of wave 3 towards 238.15 for the wave 4. Then Price continues to go down towards the 38.2% FIB Level in Magenta ( 235.89. Note that this is in the Yellow box where the FE Target Range of 261.8 - 300.00 (Wave 5 target range) is located. Also note that the 1st impulse wave 1 of a possible reversal in trend must over balance the previous wave 5 impulse wave of same degree whose origin is at 236.14 when wave 5 or this first impulse weave is finished, we then expect price to retrace to the upside by at least 61.8% which could probably take us back to the 238.0 area. EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#777    Oct 9, 2007 1:46am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

Daily chart Analysis Going back to the Daily chart on Post # 771 I have reviewed my wave counts again and made some adjustments. To me it seems that a complete impulse wave has been finished now topping at 239.70 which falls on the or near the 61.8% retracement of rthe drop from 251.07 to 219.31 @ 238.94 Just a 24 pip difference. This impulse wave could either be the whole of the sub wave c inside the Big Wav B up or it is only wave 1 of the sub wave c up od Big Wave B up. There are 2 ways to verify this. First, understand that price will fall or is falling now. I expect it to retrace once it reaches the vicinity of 236.0. If prices retraces and goes higher than 239.70, then there will be a continuation of the sub wave Cc up of the Big Wave B Up. this means we are in a wave 3 inside the sub wave c. If price upon reaching 236, retraces no higher than 239.70 and starts to go down again, then next arget would be 229.72 specially if it goes lower than 232.37 EG __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#778    Oct 9, 2007 2:05am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

AUDUSD Quote: Originally Posted by kenari05 can you analyze australian dollars? Here you go. I hope this helps. On the 4 hour chart, I see AUDUSD having finished wave 3 at 0.9033 Expectuing a wave 4 retrace which is commonly seen at 38.2% (0.8704) this could be 1st TP. Depending on how the wave infolds, it is still possible for it to go down up to 50-61.8% Technically, it just should not go lower than wave 1 end at 0.8335. EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#779    Oct 9, 2007 2:24am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

AUDUSD Daily for kenari05 Potential direction of AUDUSD as I see it on my chart First I am looking at at least a 38.2 retracement as my 1st TP. next would be 50% then 61.8%. Need to watch the waves unfold. Maximum price can go down is till wave 1 end at 0.8335 afte finishong wave 4 it then goes back to the uptrend targetting the area of PARITY with the USD. EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#780    Oct 9, 2007 8:26pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

EW Count Revision for GBPJPY With the unfolding of the waves last night, the expected Fall of the pair has failed. I have missed or maybe I completely ignored the rule that Wave 3 should never be the shortest. **** Now I remember, 1st Is how I labelled Point 34. As you can see in the chart, I labelled Point or wave 34 at 234.93. If we look at wave 32.... we see the same form which is a simple sharp down move ( corrective wave ) _ high % of mistake here. 2nd my wave 51 seems wrong now. from a 4h chart then go down to the 1 hour chart, the 1st standard 5 wave impulse ends lower than the wave 33 aqua. It may have gone up some more to go higher. but looking at it now, it looks more like the continuation was for the sub wave b abd sub wave c inside the 1st leg of a corrective wave A which is divided inti 3 instead of 5. 3rd if i labelled 52 as the 34, then the rule of alternation would have been satisfied which is probably why I considered 239.70 as the top. because my point 2 landed on where 52 is on the current chart. My use of the FIB Extention tool to compare wave lengths ( comparing wave 3 and wave 5 basing it on the FE 100.0. has encountered a dilemna specially with a complex corrective wave where the possibility of a Wave c being shorter than wave a occurs. This dilemna is where I should start measuring the length of the next wave such as wave 5. will it be at the end of the shorter sub wave c or is it at the end of the longest sub wave in the complex wave?? because I probably used the end of the last sub wave which unfortunately was shorter than normal causing me to have a shorter wave 5 measurement compared to the previous wave 3 length So a revision of the micro wave count needs to be done. EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

hefeiddd

Oct 9, 2007 8:33pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

Possible New EW Count for GBPJPY Revised EW Count EG I think 54 needs to expand SO I expect it to visit near yesterdays's low or lower . But not lower than 31 @ 237.04 to complete the sub wave c of this expanding wave 34. Magenta Box Although, you will notice that there is already a 5 pip violation here as wave 34 yellow went lower than wave 31 yellow 237.04 and the sub wave a of wave 34 yellow went to 236.99 Attached Thumbnails       __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS Last edited by el grande, Oct 9, 2007 9:30pm

#782    Oct 10, 2007 8:45am

ronnimar Member Member Since Dec 2006 7 Posts

follow up post 557. slowly but surely !!! Attached Thumbnails

#783    Oct 12, 2007 3:58pm

JackSpade Member Member Since Jan 2006 17 Posts

Afternoon squires, nice thread. My eurusd wave counting chart... might be attached... if I have done it right... Attached Images

#784    Oct 12, 2007 4:17pm

surfer76 Member Member Since Nov 2006   41 Posts

Hi Jake, have mostly the same count. Waiting for the downmove. Regards

#785    Oct 12, 2007 7:06pm

ronnimar Member Member Since Dec 2006 7 Posts

nice chart jackspade but there is only 1 problem. as it look's ?! your w:4 will terminates in 1.3828 and that is in side the territory of w:1 (mark in red )

#786    Oct 13, 2007 6:15am

JackSpade Member Member Since Jan 2006 17 Posts

Hi surfer76 & ronnimar. I meant for the current 'c' wave to have a target of the 50% fibonacci, which is also the level where the previous 'iv' wave stopped, and also where the top of 'I' stopped - although it does go inside a little bit you are right ronnimar so maybe have target inbetween 38.2 & 50.0 Im not sure about the bigger waves (I II III IV V) to be honest, more focused on the smaller waves (i ii iii iv v).

#787    Oct 13, 2007 8:42am

surfer76 Member Member Since Nov 2006   41 Posts

Hi, i try to use ew not to rigid. In my first attempts i stayed hard by the theory. But after gaining some experience in this area i try to handle this rule flexible. From my point of view it is only a guideline and not a strict rule. In very few situations you can see an ideal ew-pattern. That´s the reason why i use Fibo´s and PF. EW is only one of three components. If we go down, than the task is to find a good ew count in lower TF to indicate the end. Hope you can understand my thoughts. Regards

#788    Oct 15, 2007 10:12pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

GBPJPY EW Count Update Based on my EW Count, GBPJPY seem to have just finished wave 1 and wave 2 of the Bigger wave C inside Big wave B of wave 4. Attached charts show where I think this pair is at. EG Attached Thumbnails          __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

hefeiddd

Oct 15, 2007 10:46pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

15m wave 2 of wave c down Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#790    Oct 15, 2007 11:49pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

B wave looks like it is Expanding Attaching new chart to show expansion of b wave Targetting 239.85 FE 100.0 to have at least C=A in a Zigzag B wave. It could go as high as 240.42 at the FE 161.8 level. Then I would expect it to go down for the wave c to complete the wave 2 retracement inside bigger wave 3 up. EG Attached Thumbnails       __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#791    Oct 16, 2007 10:20am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

Lower than 237.40 Invalidated my EW Count in GBPJPY.] EG __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS Last edited by el grande, Oct 16, 2007 8:06pm

#792    Oct 17, 2007 8:35am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

GBPJPY We may have seen the top of Big Wave B @ 240.66 I am attaching a chart which I see as having conformed with EW Rules to complete a 5 wave structure sub wave c inside the big wave B UP. This means that this pair is heading south and the move from 235.74 going up now @ 238.41 is a retracement of a subwave 1 down of the Big QWave C down. Retracement is wave 2 up and may go as high as 240.66 @ 100% retracement. If price goes higher than 240.66..... this means that we are now on Wave 3 UP inside the sub wave c up of the big wave B UP. EG Attached Thumbnails          __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#793    Oct 18, 2007 2:59am

money Multiple Usernames Member Since Jul 2007   106 Posts

gbp_usd my analysis on gbp/usd, and i think that gbp will go higher. Nice day!! 4h_chart 1h_chart

#794    Oct 18, 2007 9:47pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

GBPUSD Hey money.... Thank you for posting your EW Charts here. EG __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#795    Oct 18, 2007 9:49pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

GBPJPY Update my current Count EG Attached Thumbnails                   __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

hefeiddd

Oct 18, 2007 11:29pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

another chart Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#798    Oct 18, 2007 11:51pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

ending diagonal triangle? Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#799    Oct 18, 2007 11:56pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

revised chart Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#800    Oct 19, 2007 12:15am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

more charts for potential moves Attached Thumbnails       __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#801    Oct 19, 2007 12:18am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

waiting for a break of the lower side of the Andrew's Pitchfork. Otherwise we may be headed higher EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#802    Oct 19, 2007 12:32am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

50% in time and 50% retracement for the AP values EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

hefeiddd

Oct 19, 2007 6:03am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

adjusted my wave 3 yellow missed to take profit on that last dive. still holding my short now and actually added at 235.79 yelllow wave 4 possible from 38.2 to 50% retracement 236.12 to 236.52 but not higher than 236.64 or wave 1 yellow. if it goes higher than 236.64, then my count is invalid. will need to close my shorts at a loss EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#804    Oct 19, 2007 6:06am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

15m got a bit late here. spike occurred Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#805    Oct 19, 2007 6:11am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

trendline_daily Pitchfork Fib retracement and projection EW Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#806    Oct 19, 2007 6:19am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

236.55 high as of now invalid count if goes higher than 236.64 236.73 high now has invalidated my count. this could be prep for longer term move UP. will need to work on my counts again EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#807    Oct 19, 2007 6:33am

peekaboo Member Member Since Jul 2006 43 Posts

oh no....have to recount....

#808    Oct 19, 2007 7:28am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

Current limit to still consider a Big Wave C down is up to 238.78. This would mean that we are just in the wave 2 inside wave 3 down of the big wave C Down. So this could be considered as just a retracement. IMHO.... the break of the daily trend line can be considered as the start of the decline for this pair and what we are seeing as an upmove now is but a retracement. So 238.78 is limit for move up to still consider the continuation of the move down for wave 3. Currently waiting on the sidelines now. Closed my short trades (2) at a loss. EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#809    Oct 19, 2007 8:43am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

presenting another 30m chart maybe someone will find something useful in it EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#810    Oct 20, 2007 7:58am

FxMt Member Member Since Aug 2007 55 Posts

Just another count Quote: Originally Posted by el grande presenting another 30m chart maybe someone will find something useful in it EG EG, I still have this count on the table... Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

Oct 20, 2007 12:02pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

Quote: Originally Posted by FxMt EG, I still have this count on the table... Hey FxMt.. Yes your ABC Count is still possible. If you look at the charts I attach with the trendlines on it on 4h, 1h and 15m charts, I would say that wave 5 of this wave C down would be near the level of that support trendline 234.60 or could even fall below that. On the other hand, I am still not removing from the table that it is still possible that we could be in the wave 3 down of the wave c down. As you can see from my posts, I do not base my analysis on EW alone. I keep an open mind using other tools to supplement my EW Analysis and price direction Analysis. I consider Trendline breakouts specially in the higher timeframes important like this 4h trendline Support Breakout. To me, this could signal a confirmation that this pair is going south big time. However, we also see a falling wedge which could also mean that we have a bullish continuation trend. A falling wedge theory count of 12345 should have seen a breakout to the north after the 5th count. But instead it has gone south again to probably kiss the lower side of the wedge again to make the 8th count. So to me, considering all this now, I would say that a 123 or an ABC count for this south move which started around 240.66 level is still possible. We could continue going south if this is a 123 of a 5 wave impulse wave c. Or we could wait for wave c down to finish its wave 5 in this zigzag ABC from 240.66 EG PS. I am attaching a series of charts where I drew support and resistance trendlines, ew labels on different TFs, fib retracements. I am putting them on separate charts to minimize confusion for those trying to look at these charts. I am more used to having all these tools in just 1 or just a few charts so I can see them in just 1 place. But I understand that these could confuse many. Attached Thumbnails                __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#812    Oct 20, 2007 12:34pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

Hey FxMt We have an EW Count Difference on the 4h chart. While you have just an abc for the b wave inside the big wave B up, I have a flat and a triangle. I am not saying that my count is better than yours but just trying to point out to the new ones here about this difference. To be honest, I am still unclear and not so fully convinced with that complex wave labelling I did. I just feel and think that I am not breaking any EW Rules with this count. Unless someone could please point out to me here if I have violated any EW Rule I would appreciate hearing from someone who sees an EW Rule violation in my count. I am currently up 93 pips on my demo account. but still a long way off from recovering from that loss I suffered after closing my 2 short trades on that last move up to 237.00 I exited those trades for a total of 272 pips. Too bad I exited both at once. I was not too clear with my count on 32 and 33 yellow which promted me to decide to cut my losses. So for now, I will be looking at what happens on the market open on Asian Monday. Incidentally, I was just trying to check Potential wave 5 projection of the your wave c down or my potential wave 3 down using the fib projection/extention tool. And what do I get here?..... We see that wave 3 aqua is bery near the FE 161.8 level When I use this tool to project wave 5, I would normally look for the FE 261.8 to FE 300.00 That is 232.46 - 231.62 On the otherhand, if my reversal stand holds, then my wave 3 projection is in the area of 230.97 - 229.13 Blue EW Labels 123 EG Attached Thumbnails          __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

hefeiddd

Oct 21, 2007 10:12pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

GBPJPY Here is something to think about. I was reviewing my guidelines and was looking at the limits for Wave C projection because up to now I can not "fix" the Aqua wave 4? BAsed on the guideline a wave c which is more than 161.8% of wave is more likely to be in an impulsive pattern rather than in a corrective pattern. This means that if this move down exceeds 230.97 (161.8% of wave A blue ) then this is more likely to be a wave 3 which would bring us tio the tthe target range of up to 229.13 We would then see a retracement of around 38.2% up. So now I have 2 overlapping guidelines: the Projection for wave c in a Zigzag wave 2 and the Retracement limit for a Zigzag wave 2 The earliest signal will be the higher than 161.8% retracement which is that of going lowe rthan 230.97 Butthe clearest signal that we are in the long term bear move is if price goes lower than 229.72 EG Attached Thumbnails       __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#817    Oct 22, 2007 8:18am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

Quote: Originally Posted by el grande Here is something to think about. I was reviewing my guidelines and was looking at the limits for Wave C projection because up to now I can not "fix" the Aqua wave 4? BAsed on the guideline a wave c which is more than 161.8% of wave is more likely to be in an impulsive pattern rather than in a corrective pattern. This means that if this move down exceeds 230.97 (161.8% of wave A blue ) then this is more likely to be a wave 3 which would bring us tio the tthe target range of up to 229.13 We would then see a retracement of around 38.2% up. So now I have 2 overlapping guidelines: the Projection for wave c in a Zigzag wave 2 and the Retracement limit for a Zigzag wave 2 The earliest signal will be the higher than 161.8% retracement which is that of going lower than 230.97 Butthe clearest signal that we are in the long term bear move is if price goes lower than 229.72 EG Lowest so far has been 230.31 that clears the first signal. waiting for the second signal at 229.71 which is just 50 pips down the last low. then I am more confident that this is going to lower than 219.31 But we should be looking at a corrective wave 4 before the long plunge. EG __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#818    Oct 22, 2007 8:36am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

Based on my EW Count, Pair is due for a corrective wave 4 which I believe was validated by the 15m pinbar that reached 230.31 on my chart. I am looking for it to retrace towards the 38.2 - 50% of wave 3 ( 233.33 - 234.26. But if you note on the chart I posted below 233.90 is at the 61.8% level if the move from the origin of my wave c inside the big wave B up @ 240.66 minimum target will be towards 233.33 before this proceeds with the wave 5 aqua going down to complete the blue wave 3 which is in the range of 231 - 229.16 By the way, I get reminded that I am looking forward to a wave 4 . thios means that I should also be looking at the wave 4 to end very near the level of the sub wave 4 of the previous wave 3 and this sub wave 4 of wave 3 ended at 234.42 which is between the 50% and 45% fibo retracement of wave 3. So a better TP to look forward to is at the 50% level retracement at 234.26 for those brave enough to believe this count. EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#819    Oct 22, 2007 7:16pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

0707 Asia GBPJPY Based on my EW count, there is still potential to go up for this pair to complete the 5 wave impulse of the wwave c up. Wave 4 down may still be completing. So as this pair goes up, I will be looking towards the 38.2% level @ 233.33 Note that a Guideline I use for projecting C is by looking for the 61.8, 100 and 161.8% relationship to wave a. looking aT THE LAST 15M CHART, we see here the 61.8 was surpassed but did not look subjectively correct to be considered as a mature retracement. the continued expansion of the corrective weave seem near mature to go up and complete it now And by looking and making a micro ew count down to the 1minute chart, it would look like irt is still finishing its wave 4 down on the 1minute chart. so the wave 5 up could either land on the TP1 or go further up to TP2. EG Attached Thumbnails                __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

hefeiddd

Oct 22, 2007 7:39pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

Long Targets for GBPJPY Based on Wave 4 Rules: Maximum target is at the end of previous wave 1 @ 236.64. However, this is over 261.8% of wave a already for this wave c. Like I mentioned earlier, maximum relationship between wave a and wave c is 161.8%. Meaning, wave c can only be up to 161.8% of wave a. if wave c is more than 161.8% of wave a, then this is not a corrective wave any more but an iompulse wave..... and this means that there is a trend reversal. However, the higher time frame has already broken the wave c to wave a relationship by exceeding 161.8% so over all the trend is still going down. But should this relationship / guideline be violated here, then I would look at it as a development of a much bigger wave pattern for this pair to go down. EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#821    Oct 22, 2007 9:25pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

Well.... my MT4 platform is not moving. but I can see from my broker which is not on mT4 that gb[jpy has already moved up. now my dilemna is I can not see the 5 wave impulse formation of this wave 5 up for me to see if it has reached its top. so I am throwing these charts out so who ever wants to use it can find some use for it. I still favor a top within the 50% - 38% retracement up. But not that it is possible to be just higher than 23.6%. This means any time soon for as long as a 5 wave impulse pattern is formed up from the wave 4 in the 1 minute chart, then this could be the top or the end of the wave 4 which is the corrective wave. EG Attached Thumbnails          __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#822    Oct 22, 2007 10:45pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

My mt4 platform is still not updating. it is stuck at 231.82 My non mt4 broker already shows price at 233.10. I am wary to trade this as I prefer to trade the SHORT Trade instead of the Long trade for now. Just looking at the java based platform chart of gbpjpy instead of mt4, it looks like a triangle was formed for the wave 4 and now we are on our way to finishing the wave 5 of this wave c up. move down to 232.93 to 233.12 looks like a sub wave 4 of the wave 3 up inside this wave 5. So I will be watching this wave 5 unfold and then place my short trade. EG __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#823    Oct 22, 2007 11:44pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

my mt4 is still not updating currently using fibo group. but I also can not connect to windsor, MIG, and alpari_uk, ibfx and pfg-fx am I the only one having this problem? price is now at 233.28 in my non mt4 broker I still can not decide if this is the top yet. but probably not yet since it still looks like just a wave 3 EG __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#824    Oct 22, 2007 11:58pm

marketwavez Senior Member Member Since Nov 2006   768 Posts

Usd Chf Longer-Term Views ---------------------------- Daily Bars ................ ( Double click on chart to enlarge ) Attached Thumbnails

#825    Oct 23, 2007 12:11am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

chart Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

hefeiddd

Oct 23, 2007 12:24am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

w4 limit was broken on the previous non mt4 chart. am trying to see if there was already a completion of the 5 wave impulse of this wave 3 up then a smal wave 4 then wave 5 as reason for this break. resulting to probably the continued downward movement of price. EG Attached Thumbnails          __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#827    Oct 23, 2007 12:42am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

with the former wave 1 break for the wave 4 causing my count to be invalid, attached chart has been modified following EW Rules. It looks like we are still building up for a bigger wave c up which could have a high probability of hitting TP 2 at the 50% retracement level at 234.38 A harmonic pattern has already formed on the 15m chart with a maximum @ 233.97 which is also close to the Daily 5SMA 234.38 is also previous days HIGH. EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#828    Oct 23, 2007 12:55am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

Breached again May have to go back to previous count as what was supposed to be wave c has exceeded 161.8 relationship to wave a. So looking at considering 233.27 as the top of wave c now. I would consider as a confirmation for the continued move down if price breaches the secong red line which is supposed to be the End of the revised wave 1 EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#829    Oct 23, 2007 1:14am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

Possibility of a truncated 5th wave Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#830    Oct 23, 2007 3:25am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

Something I noticed just now. Coincidence? 1 hour chart shows a precise 161.8% relationship of wave c or 3 to wave a or 1. 1 minute chart also shows the same precise percentage relationship on the current wave structure. Attached Thumbnails       __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

hefeiddd

Oct 23, 2007 7:11am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

looking at a revised wave count again. Now seeing a leading diagonal triangle EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#832    Oct 23, 2007 7:15am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

follow up chart Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#833    Oct 23, 2007 10:14am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

i have adjusted my EW count again. Looking for a more suitable count to fit the rules. EG Attached Thumbnails          __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#834    Oct 24, 2007 2:37am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

sorry . I got delayed posting this because was replying to some posts. Will reverse the order of presenting charts EG Attached Thumbnails                   __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

hefeiddd

Oct 24, 2007 4:24am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

Current Update on GBPJPY. I am looking at a possible retracement toward the Boxed Range for wave 4 Values of projected range using Fib retracement and extention tool in relation to EW. EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#836    Oct 24, 2007 4:30am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

get ready for the southern move EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#837    Oct 24, 2007 4:53am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

next potential target for retracement in RED box. otherwise this will continue to go down a bit wary because of that triangle that formed at the end of that price candlesticks EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#838    Oct 24, 2007 4:57am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

continuing trend EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#839    Oct 24, 2007 5:26am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

so bad. got stopped out on a trade. it went for the 2nd level in the yellow box. or trying to get there toward 235.11 EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#840    Oct 24, 2007 5:37am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

adjusted 1m chart for the breakdown of wave 4 Using fib extention tool for c= a*61.8% EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

hefeiddd

Oct 24, 2007 7:01am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

Sub wave 1 of the bigger wave 5 down could be finishing in the boxed range in RED. Then we expect a retrace up by at least 61.8% Note FE Levels in Box EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#842    Oct 24, 2007 7:55am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

revised update 2nd chart was after that spike so had to re adjust count EG Attached Thumbnails       __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#843    Oct 24, 2007 1:35pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

on with the charts for GBPJPY EG Attached Thumbnails          __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#844    Oct 24, 2007 3:03pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

minor adjustment and off we go to continue move northward that shook me a bit. made a retrace for nearly 88.6% again for the wave b. why 235.47? that is because Ihave noticed that GBPJPY like 76.4 up to 88.6 Fib Level as targets for wave 2 retracement. Besides it is a level that is likely to fit the rules still and not invalidate the higher TF Wave 4 which must not go higher than 235.85 EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#845    Oct 24, 2007 3:21pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

Stoploss movev to wave 2 of this move upwards around 233.48. since we have points 0 1 and 2. and we see that price has gone over FE 100.0, this means this is a continuing impulsive wave were wave 3 is longer than wave 1 and is will not be the shortest. have a better chance now of attaining our target. actual limit of a possible wave 4 retrace is up to end of wave 1 @ around 233.78 EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#846    Oct 24, 2007 3:34pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

since wave 4 retrace seem to have been established at 233.85, this means that wave 3 is just slightly more than 100% of wave a. and if my memory has npt failed me, wave 5 target would now be around FE 176.4. Unlike if wave 3 landed @ FE 161.8 then wave 5 will be at 261.8 __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#847    Oct 24, 2007 3:38pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

unless 233.79 is breached.. Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

hefeiddd

Oct 24, 2007 3:47pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

SL was at 233.48 that is arounf the wave 2 end. price has breached the end of wave 1. then this cannot be wave 4. it can then be wave 2 inside the wave 3 which furthe means that this wave 3 is going to be big. and will have a better chance of targetting FE 161.8 to FE 200.0 and finally wave 5 towards 235.41 @ FE 261.8 and near the 88.6% retracement. you can see all the fibs on my chart... that is if you know what you are looking for. EG PS already missed bagging 50 pips because I was experimenting on the SL adjustment for trailing SL. Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#849    Oct 24, 2007 5:57pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

on our way up got out eaarlier as was getting tired of waiting and getting very sleepy. but got back in near end of 32. so still ok. EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#850    Oct 24, 2007 7:46pm

marketwavez Senior Member Member Since Nov 2006   768 Posts

Gbp/Usd ----------------------------- Serious Resistance Will Price Break through all this ? ------------------------------------------- Double click on chart to enlarge Attached Thumbnails

#851    Oct 24, 2007 8:24pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

I am still biased For my current long trade which is already down by 38 pips plus 18 pip spread. but attaching some charts which could work out both in the short tern and most probably in the long term. EG Attached Thumbnails          __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#852    Oct 24, 2007 9:27pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

I have to revise the wave count for the wave 2 up. I was looking out for a wave a subdivided into 5 waves but with the large retracement that has occurred, the next logical thing to do is to check and revise the wave count. So now we have a 3 wave wave A and the wave B already finished... we have a better chance of going up npw to finish of this wave 2 UP. EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#853    Oct 24, 2007 10:30pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

update Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#854    Oct 24, 2007 10:54pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

quite taxing to do Micro EW. But it is fast and the experience of adjusting wave counts just to keep up is a very challenging thing to do. it is like a marathon APPLIED EW Course ( Self Study plus help from other EW Practicioners ) Attaching new count or adjusted in the 1 minute chart. This will be valid ones 233.35is breached EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#855    Oct 25, 2007 2:06am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

Exited 2 live trades at a loss because I have to leave and I do not want to leave trades running when I am not around. Back to Breakeven after increasing capital by 80% this week. for as long as price does not go lower than 232.83. wave b of this wave 2 up is still valid based on attached chart. whew... looks like I should truxt my counts more. anyway I have to go now. back at US session. EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

hefeiddd

Oct 25, 2007 8:07am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

entering Long trade at 234.18 area where wave 5 up for the top of wave c up of this wave 2 in this wave 5 down. EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS Last edited by el grande, Oct 25, 2007 8:11am Reason: add chart

#857    Oct 25, 2007 8:34am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

as chart develops Lowest was at 233.86 just a little over 86% retracement of wave 3 and in the vicinity of sub wave 4 of previous wave 3 of same degree. Wave 2 target at 86% near 235.40 EG Attached Thumbnails          __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#858    Oct 25, 2007 8:39am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

Possible wave 4 end? then expect wave 5 going UP now to maximum of 235.85 Beyond 235.85...... my wave count is invalidated EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#859    Oct 25, 2007 9:06am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

wave 2 retrace of wave 1 and back going UP or 127.0 @ 234.09? EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#860    Oct 25, 2007 9:19am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

Wave 53 or wave 3 projection is between FE 161.8 to 200.00 In this case I will use another technique where a previous retracement of 61.8% will yield a projection of FE 176.4 So first TP is at 235.20 then we expect a retracement for wave 54 or wave 4. We will see percentage of retracement from there and then project wave 55. EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

hefeiddd

Oct 25, 2007 9:56am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

Southern Trip from here on. I failed to recognized limits of each wave earlier. I think I made a mistake. I still have a long way to go learning EW. Note how wave 3 and wave 5 projections using the fib extention tool still falls within expected range as we use Points 0 1 and 2 EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

Oct 26, 2007 4:45am

HonaForex UPPARA TRADER Member Since Dec 2006 314 Posts

Swissy ........long Swissy worth going long with risk of 50 pips..........here is my chart & we r in wave 3 i believe..... Attached Thumbnails    __________________ "Trade for sake of trading & not for winning or Lossing"

hefeiddd

Oct 26, 2007 3:25pm

money Multiple Usernames Member Since Jul 2007   106 Posts

USD-JPY Quote: Originally Posted by el grande Glad to see you posting your counts again money. keep them coming. I have a question re your chart. I am missing something on your wave B Black on the lower right corner of your chart. Your wave 2 is lower than your wave 1 origin. If you think usdjpy in your chart is on an uptrend, then wave 2 must not go lower than wave 1 red origin. EG Hello EG, tnx for helping me on Elliot Wave, couse i know that together we know a lot more. You said that there is somethnig missing on wave B-black. Maybe you thought that are missing 1,2,3,4,5, that i writte down in new picture. I also changed my pattern a-b-c (i change it, couse trend line was not broken) from wave 5 in B-black, to the wave 1 of the Big wave 2. And now the small wave 2 from 2 is not lower,than B-black if you thought this. new picture,----------------------------------tnx again Attached Thumbnails

#872    Oct 26, 2007 5:36pm

HonaForex UPPARA TRADER Member Since Dec 2006 314 Posts

El Unless you are showing as that you expect price to reach that 100% level in relation to a Hi-Lo Range you base it on. Yes u r right I expect market to move inaccordance to wave 1 fibos & most of time its good to aim our target shivaji __________________ "Trade for sake of trading & not for winning or Lossing"

#873    Oct 28, 2007 9:40pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

Quote: Originally Posted by money Hello EG, tnx for helping me on Elliot Wave, couse i know that together we know a lot more. You said that there is somethnig missing on wave B-black. Maybe you thought that are missing 1,2,3,4,5, that i writte down in new picture. I also changed my pattern a-b-c (i change it, couse trend line was not broken) from wave 5 in B-black, to the wave 1 of the Big wave 2. And now the small wave 2 from 2 is not lower,than B-black if you thought this. new picture,----------------------------------tnx again Hey money. When I said I was missing, I actually meant I could not understand or I felt it did not fit into the rules so Maybe I was wrong or I was missing or not seeing something you were seeing and that is why you labelled it that way. Sorry for getting you confused with my english. But to go back to that B wave of yours, This is only assumming that your current count direction is correct..... (coz my mind has somehow blocked off making counts for other pairs as detailed as I do on the gbpjpy (which I assume that my count could still be full of mistakes ) a B wave is a corrective wave so it is normally in a 3 wave subdivision. 12345 labels are for impulse or motive waves that follow 3 basic rules ( wave 2 does not go beyond wave 1 origin, wave 3 is never the shortest among waves 1 3 and 5. and lastly that wave 4 does not go beyond wave 1 end or into the wave 2 price territory.) So your wave B must be divided into 3 waves only not 5. A corrective wave that is subdivided into 5 waves needs to be a triangle: Diagonal (A) 53535 Diagonal (C) 33333 Symmetrical - Contracting (B) Symmetrical - Expanding (B) I hope this helps. EG PS. Offhand, your 12345 inside your black wave A could be right. but you should put the end of your magenta zigzag on your wave 5 end and not on your red 2 of your "B" Black. then you could probably have a small "a" red instead of the small 3 red, then a small b red instead of a small 4 red. and your small 5 red change to small c red. For your Black Wave B. On the other hand your 12345 could also be correct but this could be the smal " A" wave instead of that "B" Black wave on your chart. as you can see , your x is lower than your current smal wave 5 red. So we can not make your current black wave B stand or be valid as a Wave B end. Otherwise the beginning of your wave c will not be valid. So I propose that your current Black B wave to be changed to Wave "A" followed by zigzag abc for your new Wave B black. then yur "x" as the wave 1 in your wave c down. If it gets more confusing for you , please disregard.... __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS Last edited by el grande, Oct 28, 2007 10:29pm

#874    Oct 29, 2007 1:09am

pips4life Member Member Since Apr 2007 195 Posts

Hi EG, I have been working hard to learn EW counts. I just finished my first read through the "Elliott Wave Principle" by Frost & Prechter, and now I'm applying what I know so far. Getting the counts right for extended waves, etc. is rather tricky. As the joke goes, if you put 12 EW traders in a room, you'll get 13 possible EW counts... No doubt there is some subjectivity to it, but the closest true count would be one that meets the most rules. I've put a lot of thought into the last 4 years of GJ and would appreciate any feedback. Have I followed the rules? Is my scenario plausible? I say were in a big C-wave down now, which usually subdivides into a 5-count wave. My 1st target is 213.50, 2nd less likely target is as low as ~206. Yes, those are big falls from here, but considering the big challenges facing the USD and subprime mess, I believe it could happen. Since UJ usually closely follows GJ, I suspect I will find somewhat similar EW counts but I haven't tackled that yet. I did a previous count for GU which suggested it may have peaked in July and now it's ready for a big move down, but I did that before I read the book. If GU is about to go down, that adds weight to GJ falling also. Please comment... and thanks in advance. Pips4life Attached Thumbnails

Oct 29, 2007 6:51am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

pips4life.... let me continue with me reply to your query earlier.. "I've put a lot of thought into the last 4 years of GJ and would appreciate any feedback. Have I followed the rules? Is my scenario plausible? I say were in a big C-wave down now, which usually subdivides into a 5-count wave. My 1st target is 213.50, 2nd less likely target is as low as ~206. Yes, those are big falls from here, but considering the big challenges facing the USD and subprime mess, I believe it could happen. ***You could probably be right while I could be wrong about this. Your current wave 5 up which is the 251.07 high on my chart is just my wave 3. I will explain further below after this post." I think it is important that you check your wave counts of higher time frame than what you were just looking at. I am assuming that your wave count was only up to the daily. ( please correct me if I am wrong ) The fact that your wave count shows that you already have a wave 5 on your chart ( which I assume is a daily chart ) then you follow it up with an ABC wave, then that means you still expect the price to go higher than the previous 251.07..... This would bring you to considering the whole 5 wave move from Sept 2000 @ 148.19 low to July 2007 @ 251.07 to be just the first sub wave of a bigger wave 3. But if you look at the monthly chart below, I have labelled my chart as to how I see the EW Count is on the monthly chart. You will see that I consider price now as being a part of an unfinished flat corrective wave. Why do I think we are in a flat corrective wave? It is because I consider the wave 2 you see in the chart as a sharp zigzag. And by the rule of alternation, wave 4 must be a complex sideways corrective wave.... thus the flat corrective wave expectation for this wave 4. Moving further, since I consider this as a flat corrective wave, then by looking at the chart again, we can see that it is possible that we have already finished the wave A and the Wave B and that price now is basically trying to complete the Wave C in the monthly chart. Then I go to the guideline I have compiled where C is said to be related to A by the following Percentages: 61.8%, 100%, and 161.8% So far, we will note that price has already gone higher than the 61.8% FE Level. Now we have to check if this wave C up has completed 5 waves. We also have to note size proportion of the waves. Here is where I am struggling to find the correct wave count on the GBPJPY. EG Attached Thumbnails       __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS Last edited by el grande, Oct 29, 2007 11:27pm Reason: spelling edit

#880    Oct 29, 2007 8:00am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,791 Posts

Here is an option for the weekly Count. Still trying to fit the waves into the rules. EG Attached Thumbnails          __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS