一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Nov 6, 2007 3:05pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

gggrrrrr...... exited too early. waiting for a retrace to 238.75 EG Attached Images   __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1097    Nov 6, 2007 3:13pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

Or Price could be in for a retracement towards 238.56 (78.6%) or to 238.51 ( 85% ) for a sub wave 2down of the wave 5 UP. EG Attached Images   __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1098    Nov 6, 2007 3:21pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

too bad. it is probably not comimng back down now. most typical of a potential strong wave 3 when we see our oscillators turning over bought and expecting a turn back yet price keeps on going up. Have entered , just one new trade at 238.38 ( forward trade which is about 98 pips less than what you get for your values on the MT4 Platform). EG __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1099    Nov 6, 2007 3:47pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

Here is what I think I over-looked. So I am leaving my 2 current Long trades to run now. And will try to get some sleep. almost 5 am here now and things will probably start moving again when Asian Markets Open. Good Trading to all of you. I hope you made good pips with our Elliott Wave Counts for today. I think we basically traded against what many were thinking. Let us see how much more our EW Counts will turn out to fit the actual Price Route. EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1100    Nov 6, 2007 3:59pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

Note that : Weekly R1 is @ 242.37. Murrey Math Level (8/8) @ 243.75 Weekly R2 and Murrey Math Level ( +1/8 ) @ 245.37 Looking nice for my Long trades But may not be that fast. I will need to re-work some of my counts though later because of the truncated 5th wave we have ( I think). We will se if it has affected the overall count. Let us see where the Daily S and R will be later and also the the Fibonacci Breakout Levels from a Daily Range later. EG __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1101    Nov 6, 2007 6:20pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

Update: Good Morning Everyone. Now back to the Drawing Board. EG Attached Thumbnails       __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1102    Nov 6, 2007 7:17pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

Retracement I do not see any significant retracement coming till we reach 242.61 I am tempted to load another Long trade But I am keeping myself in check. 2 Long trades to run should be fine. There are still other days and new opportunities to trade. EG __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1103    Nov 6, 2007 8:02pm

pips4life Member Member Since Apr 2007 195 Posts

I'm not that good at predictions, so with that in mind... to me it feels like we're right on the edge, and it's starting to turn bearish for GJ/UJ/GU (all three). Some people think there's more upside for GU, and if they're right, that will pull up GJ, and GJ will pull up UJ because it follows the pattern more-or-less, just a lot less than GJ does (because if GU is up, G is up more so, relative to U). I've talked about Fibo Retracement lines used as forward-looking projections. Here's a Weekly GU chart. Note where I've circled towards the start of each set of Fibo lines. That's the basis for the entire 5-wave. Note how twice it hit the 100% target lines. Now, we're in big Wave-5 (Are we Sub 5 or Sub 3? That's the big question). The start of this 5 was tentative, hence the first Wave 1 &2 are small, so the 61.8% line is lower than the others. In such cases, I would expect it to pick up steam and exceed 100%, and it does. If the current high is the peak, it's at around the -61.8% line. Obviously this line can vary up or down 100-200 pips based on the somewhat subjective placement of the Fibo lines. But I attempt to be as "objective" as possible, to fit the price action as the 5-wave unfolds, and it's at a reasonable placement now. (There are other's that are "reasonable" too, but which may end at the same price if one considers -44.0% or -27.0% or -18.0% as the final target, which they often are). One must find confluence with other S/R levels. So then, also note the several trendlines in the picture. Connect past key highs and lows as I did, and you'll see a big confluence of several TL's coming together right where the current GU has peaked. It will have to break several of those TL's to move upwards. Remember my hypothetical BIG GJ C-wave down, but what would have been Wave-2 retraced too high, above Wave 1 of C. You took this as a long sign, and perhaps it is. But perhaps it's an expanded flat and we'll see a big down wave?? UJ is very similar to a regular flat right now. Either way, the indecisiveness of price action tells there is a struggle going on (as always I guess... lol). Attached Thumbnails

#1104    Nov 6, 2007 11:18pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

Wave Expanding sideways. Most likely a corrective FLAT wave. Likely to end in the area of 238.40. Invalid once it goes lower than 238.39 EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1105    Nov 7, 2007 12:45am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

instead of expanding sideways for a corrective flat, we may be seeing the finish of a sub wave 2 of the wave 5 UP. Note the 85% retracement common with wave 2s. Count proposed is invalid if price goes lower than 238.39 EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1106    Nov 7, 2007 12:56am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

FLAT corrective ? Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1107    Nov 7, 2007 1:10am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

or a possible revised wave count on the hourly. Attached Thumbnails       __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1108    Nov 7, 2007 1:14am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

1 more leg down on the 1min chart and then we should be back on our long trades. EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS Last edited by el grande, Nov 7, 2007 1:18am Reason: add chart

#1109    Nov 7, 2007 1:24am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

must not exceed 238.99 for a valid wave 4 pull back. Otherwise we are back to the long trade. EG Attached Images   __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1110    Nov 7, 2007 1:26am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

pushed back by daily pivot Attached Images   __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

hefeiddd

Nov 7, 2007 1:30am

I Wanna Trade Member Member Since May 2007 34 Posts

Hey all, Looks like the USD/JPY has started its 3rd wave decline as I had in my count that I posted a few days ago (see chart again below). This is weighing down on the GBP/JPY and probably won't allow it to make a new significant high above 240.28 unless there's a very large correction in the USD/JPY overnight here. The GBP/USD should rally into the rate decision then reverse sharply, along with all USD pairs as the dollar should start a large reversal. GBP/JPY looked to be completing a very complex correction so I've been waiting for signals from the USD/JPY of when it would break to the downside in wave 3. Will look to aggressively short the GBP/JPY prior to Thursday's BOE rate decision as that should ignite the GBP/JPY's wave 3 decline. The full decline should eventually test 230.28 and possibly 219.29 in a wave 5. -Todd Attached Thumbnails

#1112    Nov 7, 2007 1:34am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

Possible wave 5 finished and also new wave 1 up. Checking wave 2 pull back by 78.6% to 85% before entering new long trade here. Eg Attached Images   __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1113    Nov 7, 2007 2:01am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

1 min chart. 1 more chance for my long trade? Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1114    Nov 7, 2007 2:17am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

Ok. I broke my rule. I was suppose to wait for a 78.6 to 85% retracement as new signal for a wave 2 end. But ended entering a long trade @ 237.81 Forward trade which is 98 pips less than your MT4 Platform values. Why did I enter earlier? It is because I was studying the structure of what looked like a wave 2 that was forming. Subjectively perhaps, I observed that it was like developing a sideways expanding wave instead of the usual zigzagfor a wave 2. Consolidation was building up and the whole retrace was already at 61.8 on my mt4 chart. well now... I know I was wrong as it has retraced more than 100% EG __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1115    Nov 7, 2007 2:24am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

I need to always keep in mind that all timeframes dance to the same music. the lower timeframes just do it faster yet follow the same rules and these waves in the lower timeframes make up the sam type of waves in the higher timeframes. More like reading numbers... if you know what I mean.. Currently all trades on the red. EG __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1116    Nov 7, 2007 2:51am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

RED and Magenta Wave Counts are now invalid because price went lower than 238.39 Wave 4 over lapping with Wave 1 Magenta. Now looking for exit to extricate my long trades with minimal loss. EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1117    Nov 7, 2007 3:33am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

Possible count I am working on now. Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1118    Nov 7, 2007 4:00am

carforum Member Member Since May 2006 35 Posts

Quote: Originally Posted by el grande Possible count I am working on now. Same count here, have been buy @238.60 1 hr pin bar!!!

#1119    Nov 7, 2007 4:18am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

Quote: Originally Posted by carforum Same count here, have been buy @238.60 1 hr pin bar!!! Good for you Carman. I am still nursing 3 red long trades. although the last I enterd is slowly getting near the surface.... That is what I get for breaking my own rules. EG PS. Let us see if we get our sub wave 1 at the level of previous sub wave 4 @ 238.84 level Attached Images   __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS Last edited by el grande, Nov 7, 2007 4:22am Reason: chart

#1120    Nov 7, 2007 4:45am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

missed to close 1 long for -1 pip net. hesitated to pull trigger Now I will probably have to ride this out till 237 MT4 at he daily S2 and the Monthly Pivot. __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1121    Nov 7, 2007 5:14am

carforum Member Member Since May 2006 35 Posts

Quote: Originally Posted by carforum Same count here, have been buy @238.60 1 hr pin bar!!! have been stop out, ouch!! After read I wannt trade post, will step out (no trade) for a moment and let's see what happen

#1122    Nov 7, 2007 6:00am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

Quote: Originally Posted by carforum have been stop out, ouch!! After read I wannt trade post, will step out (no trade) for a moment and let's see what happen sorry to hear about that. am still in. SL @ 300 per trade. Current wave development. EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1123    Nov 7, 2007 6:10am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

Let us test n demo trade the 1. 50% - 61.8 ( prev sub wave 4 ) retrace as sub wave 1 2. Pull back/down as Wave 2 ( 78.6% - 85% ) 3. Beginning os sub wave 3 at sub wave 2 end Or maybe observe this.... EG Attached Images   __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1124    Nov 7, 2007 9:06am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

back to the board. Here is my current proposed count after that large retracement. The required complex sideways expanding wave finally played out. It was not a corrective flat nor an irregular/expanding flat. But it was a Zigzag connected by an X wave to an expanded Flat Corrective wave. If this wave 4 inside wave 33 is finished , then price will continue going up to the 241 - 247 area. Final level will still be affected by the internal swings of the wave development of wave 35 yellow. But the 241- 247 is the range based on projections from different reference points. EG Exited 2 of the long trades for quite a number of pips. one near the bottom of this move and the other as price started to retrace back up. I did not realize the combination of zigzag and expanded flat yet when I exited the trades. But I was concerned with preserving my capital or what was left of it. instead of being able to do 3 trades, I am back to just 2 trades. My SL was enough till 235, but I decided to cut the losses and trade another day. Several mistakes I made today were adding on to trade without checking the EW on the different timeframes, I was focused on the Oscillator. Next was pulling the trigger when to exit an undecided trade even if it was on the losing side. Anyway, Total loss for the day is 346 pips on 2 trades. I am letting the last Long trade stay. hhhmmmmm..... if I waited a little longer or if I spotted that complex wave there before I exited my trade, by now, I would almost be back to recovering that drawdown.. Price bounced off Daily Support 2, Monthly Pivot Weekly 5SMA I should have realized that too. Quite a thick layer of Support there. I'll take a rest tonight. EG You were better off than me Carman for getting stopped out that early. I chickened out of my system. Attached Thumbnails       __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

hefeiddd

Nov 7, 2007 2:37pm

money Multiple Usernames Member Since Jul 2007   106 Posts

USD-JPY usd/jpy Elliot on month mnth and daily chart Attached Thumbnails

#1127    Nov 7, 2007 8:50pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

Whew. Boy am I glad I closed those trades last night. and increased my SL on the remaining one before I went to bed. That was a huge drawdownlike doubled while I was sleeping . Anyway, since I am still learning this EW, it is thus best to use large SLs on LIVE trades so as to have more room while being able to work around ones capital. and have less trades. So that if things turn the otherway, it won't hurt that much. ( but it is still hurts ). But need to move on and pick up my books and see what I missed here. My maximum drawdown for a wave 4 to still be valid was at 235.81. Bottom of that last move was 235.09. Have to re-work my count again. I apologize to all those following this thread. Time to hit the books. It is quite hard to get a mentor for free so I have to work this oout on my own and hopefully others who post their charts here will continue to post. This is I believe what most EW Practitioners get nightmares on. That is when they get their counts wrong. But if we practice good Money management, I think we will average out in a profit still. I am posting my counts and why I chose to label them that way because it forces me to study and learn from others too. If I am right, then good. But if I am wrong, then I have to study some more. Practicing will help me improve in this. Thanks FxMt for the morale support. To Pips4life for his programming skills and his extar ordinary thoughts on ways to analyze wave structure, To Carman, money, I Wanna Trade, marketwavez, who share their thoughts and their charts. Keep them coming my friends.... EG __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1128    Nov 7, 2007 10:23pm

I Wanna Trade Member Member Since May 2007 34 Posts

Hey all, Money is using the same chart I did where I developed my original bearish bias on the USD/JPY since the decline from 124.13 and I saw an entry point once the correction occurred after Wave 1 to 111.58. The terminal thrust from the triangle Money posted could test 101.00. Thanks for posting that chart Money. This extreme bearish trend will drag down the GBP/JPY. Plus, as I said yesterday, the GBP/USD is due for a large reversal as all moment indicators have been in extremes for some time now and are showing divergence (RSI, Stochs.). The dollar is due to rally at any time, and I feel that some news in the either the ECB or BOE rate decisions tomorrow morning will trigger the GBP/USD to reverse and head down sharply. When the USD/JPY and the GBP/USD go down together, the GBP/JPY will follow. The correction GBP/JPY was completing was complex, but I have a possible count which I put in the chart. Like I've said before, like the USD/JPY, the GBP/JPY and the EUR/JPY for that matter, are on their way to test and break through their August lows. If I'm right that the GBP/JPY just completed a failed 5th wave, then it would might be a good idea to get aggressively short right now, or once it tests the top of the channel ahead of the rate decisions to catch the huge reversal coming. Regards, Todd Attached Thumbnails

#1129    Nov 7, 2007 11:19pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

Quote: Originally Posted by I Wanna Trade Hey all, Money is using the same chart I did where I developed my original bearish bias on the USD/JPY since the decline from 124.13 and I saw an entry point once the correction occurred after Wave 1 to 111.58. The terminal thrust from the triangle Money posted could test 101.00. Thanks for posting that chart Money. This extreme bearish trend will drag down the GBP/JPY. Plus, as I said yesterday, the GBP/USD is due for a large reversal as all moment indicators have been in extremes for some time now and are showing divergence (RSI, Stochs.). The dollar is due to rally at any time, and I feel that some news in the either the ECB or BOE rate decisions tomorrow morning will trigger the GBP/USD to reverse and head down sharply. When the USD/JPY and the GBP/USD go down together, the GBP/JPY will follow. The correction GBP/JPY was completing was complex, but I have a possible count which I put in the chart. Like I've said before, like the USD/JPY, the GBP/JPY and the EUR/JPY for that matter, are on their way to test and break through their August lows. If I'm right that the GBP/JPY just completed a failed 5th wave, then it would might be a good idea to get aggressively short right now, or once it tests the top of the channel ahead of the rate decisions to catch the huge reversal coming. Regards, Todd Thank you Todd for your Analysis. I was too engrossed with my wave counts that I failed to really look at how others including your's, Pips4life's and Carman's charts and analysis. EG __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1130    Nov 7, 2007 11:46pm

I Wanna Trade Member Member Since May 2007 34 Posts

No problem man. I just like writing my thoughts down as it helps me organize and perhaps sharpen my strategy more. If someone takes interest along the way, then all the better. The dollar, oil and gold are all at potential reversal points, I'm just looking for a signal and an associated wave count to support that signal. But in relation to this forum, the ECB and BOE rate decision looks like a good reversal catalyst, especially because a BOE rate cut is possible. This could actually spark dollar strength and push the EUR/USD down as well. But the point is that if the GBP/USD gets heavy downward pressure which is due any time now, when you take into account the wave count on the USD/JPY, it would severly drag down the GBP/JPY and perhaps validate the wave count I posted above. Regards, EG, all, Todd

#1131    Nov 8, 2007 4:25am

FxMt Member Member Since Aug 2007 55 Posts

Still valid ... Quote: Originally Posted by el grande Thank you Todd for your Analysis. I was too engrossed with my wave counts that I failed to really look at how others including your's, Pips4life's and Carman's charts and analysis. EG Just in case ... Attached Thumbnails

#1132    Nov 8, 2007 5:01am

carforum Member Member Since May 2006 35 Posts

Hi, Here is my counting for GBP and EUR, I also think there will be a large correction! Any suggestion are very welcomed.... Thx Attached Thumbnails

#1133    Nov 8, 2007 4:43pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

Thank you all for your charts. I am more inclined to lean on a Bullish trend for today. Agreeing with FxMt's Chart... Attached chart is a 5min GBPJPY where an obvious 5 wave structure is seen going up. I have not yet checked how this fits in the over all count but this surely looks like wave 1 going up from below. EG update: maybe the next chart will do. Attached Thumbnails    Attached Images   __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS Last edited by el grande, Nov 8, 2007 4:51pm Reason: add another chart

#1134    Nov 8, 2007 5:17pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

another chart Attached Thumbnails       __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1135    Nov 8, 2007 5:28pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

new track Must decisively wait for the 78.6% retrace. 61.8% may be too early for this pair which has been observed to do up to 85% retrace. EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1136    Nov 8, 2007 6:23pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

Anybody on DEMO and trading GBPJPY..... You still have a chance to try out the wave count on your DEMO account. If you have SHORTS, Unload or reduce exposure. at or near the Daily Pivot at 236.83. better @ 237 then Load up your LONG Trades or hedge your Short Trades at the same level or @ 236.85. SL @ 236.50 which is just 1 pip below the wave 1 origin and 1 pip lower the level acceptable for a 100% retracement of wave 1 for wave 2. GET READY. EG Attached Images   __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1137    Nov 8, 2007 6:46pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

Wave structure on the 5 min chart shows 5 part structure. However, the possible w4 overlaps with wave 1. BUt note also that it was bouncing on the weekly 5sma. This may not be enogh support to hold the pair from still going down to the Daily Pivot. ooooppps. I just checked now and Daily Pivot is now @ 237.32. Since it has opened and closed an hourly candle and possibly another one now below the new Daily Pivot, I am inclined to believe that this will still get down to 236.82 @76.8% retracement Level. EG: Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1138    Nov 8, 2007 6:51pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

up to finish b. possible attempt to reach 200ema on 15min chart then down to finish c and start with 335333 small CORAL. EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1139    Nov 8, 2007 7:08pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

maximum retrace for B otherwise, wrong count so exit if trading it . or not enter short before that level. EG Attached Thumbnails       __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1140    Nov 8, 2007 7:42pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

bad bad bad.... I entered 2 scalps for this wave down. entered 1 @ FE 100.0 and another near FE 161.8 at the level I initially thought was the limit up for B. Then when it kept going up. I was also looking at anoyher platform from a bifferent broker and it showed price going over the wave 1 end while meta quote platform did not show this overlap or exceeding wave 1 end. So at the short pull back, I closed the 2 trades at a loss 112 pips inclusive of the 18 pip spread per trade. what skipped my mind was the possibility of a Flat or irregular flat corrective wave. The limit of 78.6% must be for the Zigzag. Now price has hit the 1hr 100sma and the 240ema on the 15min chart.. Let us see if this will provide resistance for the meantime. Reminder to myself: To Stick to the MAIN TREND. EG Attached Images   __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

hefeiddd

Nov 8, 2007 8:03pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

notes on chart Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1142    Nov 8, 2007 8:32pm

pips4life Member Member Since Apr 2007 195 Posts

I too thought longs were in play, but it has hit resistance at 238.00. I'm rethinking that maybe the uptrend will collapse, and it's back to the shorts. I still don't know. Check out these trendlines, and dual channels in play. It will have to clear above 238.00 conviincingly... (No sooner did I type this than it fell to 237.33, which is 76.4% of this last upswing, and back up to 237.78. Perhaps it will keep going... just keep these resistance lines/channels in mind). Attached Thumbnails

#1143    Nov 8, 2007 8:47pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

Check my count. It just might work out as such. EG Attached Thumbnails       __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1144    Nov 8, 2007 9:01pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

update now possible to break to down side EG Attached Images   __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1145    Nov 8, 2007 9:16pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

Let us see how this will progress EG Attached Images   __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

hefeiddd

Nov 8, 2007 9:36pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

update Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1148    Nov 8, 2007 9:51pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

check your oscillators wave 2 may be expanding sideways as FLAT or a bigger Zigzag. EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1149    Nov 8, 2007 9:57pm

pips4life Member Member Since Apr 2007 195 Posts

Yet one other system I've paid some attention to is price crossing the 100 smas, plus RSI(55) and CCI(50) on various timeframes. I just noticed the Daily charts have now had two days closing below the 100sma, and it so happens, also the 200sma. The RSI (over 50) and CCI (above zero) which are supposed to be considered at the same time as the sma crossings are possibly just barely bullish. Regardless, I would expect indecision/ranging until the market makes a choice. The bears have a slight edge, IMO. The Nikkei is down -168 to 15603. http://www.nni.nikkei.co.jp/CF/FR/MKJ/

#1150    Nov 8, 2007 10:02pm

pips4life Member Member Since Apr 2007 195 Posts

There's also a daily bearish Gartley pattern on the Daily GU. Looks like the window is at least another 5 days, and GU could still rise to 2.1271-ish. I have a 161.8 fibo at that high level too. Attached Thumbnails

#1151    Nov 8, 2007 10:24pm

pips4life Member Member Since Apr 2007 195 Posts

A few key S/R levels on a GJ H4 chart. Attached Thumbnails

#1152    Nov 9, 2007 10:05am

I Wanna Trade Member Member Since May 2007 34 Posts

It looks that the chart I posted earlier of a failed wave 5 proved accurate (see below) as price and broken through key support at 235.23 in a wave iii in a larger wave 3 underway. The USD/JPY has played out exactly to plan as it's dropped 400 pips since the first count I posted. The USD/JPY has broken through its August low of 111.58 as it completed wave v within a larger wave 3. Price should correct significantly in large wave 4 before it continues to decline to test 108.00, and probably 101.50 eventually. With the GBP/JPY breaking 235.23 significantly, it's about to follow suit with the USD/JPY and break through its August lows of 219.29, and much further! I've already been heavily short the USD/JPY and just took profits at 110.60 from 115.50 and will re-enter a short at the completion of its wave 4 (a-b-c) correction. Once the GBP/JPY follow and completes it wave iv correction I will also go aggressively short the GBP/JPY to target a break through 219.29 eventually. The Dow had severe resistance yesterday where wave a = c and fib 61.8% which should be complete wave c in a correction. It opened down big today, but should recover significantly by the close and raise the USD/JPY and GBP/JPY into their corrections which will present another opportunity for us to short them. Best wishes, Todd Attached Thumbnails

#1153    Nov 11, 2007 2:16am

Qu|cksilver Senior Member Member Since Sep 2006   2,151 Posts

Hi, I'm new with EW. Could someone tell me which pattern below is the correct EW. Picture 1 which i count Higher high as no. 1 Picture 2 which i count lower low as no 1 So which one is correct? Thanks in advance. QS Attached Thumbnails       __________________ "Invest With The Insiders, Not The Masses" George Muzea

#1154    Nov 11, 2007 8:26am

mcv-exchange Member Member Since Dec 2006 36 Posts

Quote: Originally Posted by Qu|cksilver Hi, Could someone tell me which pattern below is the correct EW. So which one is correct? Hi Quik, I'm sure I'm not as well versed in EW as EG...but it appears that count No. 1 is the more correct of the 2. I made a few corrections to your 1st pic. Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

Nov 11, 2007 3:52pm

I Wanna Trade Member Member Since May 2007 34 Posts

I want to clean up and update my count for the USD/JPY and the GBP/JPY. The count for the USD/JPY has been clear for some time and been a cash cow for those with the same count . The GBP/JPY has not been clear however, other than a test of 200.00 was imminent, it was just a matter of when. GBP/JPY was carrying out a complex correction that made it unclear when the big bear wave (as part of large C wave) would begin. But Friday's significant break of 235.24 confirms that the big bear wave (of larger wave C) is now underway and will eventually test 200.00. The USD/JPY will lead most of the move and as shown by my count, the USD/JPY is due for a correction, most likely between 38% - 62% fibonacci. That will be a good time to aggressively get short on the GBP/JPY and even the EUR/JPY, and again on the USD/JPY, as they will drop significantly. Another element adding to my bearish bias and wave count is the GBP/JPY weekly chart that shows a clear head and shoulders pattern, where wave C will complete the pattern. Regards, Todd Attached Thumbnails

Nov 16, 2007 4:26am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

Chart Attached Thumbnails       __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS Last edited by el grande, Nov 16, 2007 4:46am Reason: more charts

#1163    Nov 16, 2007 4:54am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

update for Possibility Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1164    Nov 16, 2007 5:13am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

A continuation of Fall? Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

hefeiddd

Nov 16, 2007 5:23am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

Falling Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1166    Nov 16, 2007 5:58am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

Daily Support 1 is HIT EW Count Revised Attached Thumbnails       __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1167    Nov 16, 2007 6:13am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

Breach of Daily Support 1 will likely see the new targets with the check Mark Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1168    Nov 16, 2007 6:17am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

Micro EW on the 1min chart Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1169    Nov 16, 2007 6:23am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

Near end of Previous Sub wave 4 May qualify as c = 61.8 of a Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1170    Nov 16, 2007 6:31am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

waves 351 and 353 not visibly extended. expecting 355 to be long and extended. Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

hefeiddd

Nov 16, 2007 6:46am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

another potential set-up Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1172    Nov 16, 2007 7:21am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

Spike messed up my count EG __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1173    Nov 16, 2007 10:01am

FxMt Member Member Since Aug 2007 55 Posts

w3 hit, now dancing w4 ? Quote: Originally Posted by el grande Spike messed up my count EG What do you think EG? Attached Thumbnails

#1174    Nov 16, 2007 11:38am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

Quote: Originally Posted by FxMt What do you think EG? Am not quite sure about that FxMt. Re working my chart now, I see on the 1 hr TF that we may already be finished with the wave C down . Leg down of price after the end or top of wave 4 a. shows a 5 wave structure b. has exceeded or gone lower than previous low at wave 3 end c. w2 is almost 61.8% Retrace of w1 d. w4 is between 50% and 61.8% retrace of w3 e. w1 almost equal to w5 for wave equality Above are points I am considering for now to convince myself that GBPJPY is going UP again Long Term. EG Sorry can.t seem to posta chart now. But anyway , you should have an idea based on what I enumerated above __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1175    Nov 16, 2007 8:33pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

I hope this goes thru. BTW, I just noticed now that there was also a GAP on the 1 hour chart. This couild mean that it was at the middle of a wave 3 or nearing the end of a wave. So here is another reason why I think this pair is on the reverse trend now and is on its way up again. I guess the BEARS could not swim that deep yet.. But remember that a wave 1 up is followed by a wave 2 down. This could mean that a rally up for a sub wave 1 will be followed by a retrace of 76.4% to 85% or atmost 100% of wave 1. So very likely that we are comin down again to test the current low. I think I will wait for that retrace and trade it UP. EG file:///C:/RGV/1h%20route%20potential-001.gif Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1176    Nov 16, 2007 8:43pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

This is strange. The chart below was the chart I was trying to post last night. But since I had problems last night I gave up and went to sleep. But this morning I tried to post same chart and still unable to. So I tried saving the chart again this morning. But notice that the chart below from last night has a GAP on the 1 hour chart. But the same place or candlestick last night does nt show a GAP on the chart I saved this morning. Strange. Same broker and showing differences in the chart in history. Chart below shows the GAP EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

hefeiddd

Nov 16, 2007 11:13pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

Forget About the GAP. I do not see it in my other computers. Below is the proposed count and Potential Price Route for next week. As you will see, it is possible that the Move down is already finished with the wave 5 down ending as an ending diagonal triangle. Followed by a new 5 wave up which looks like trying to finish of the sub wave 5 of this wave 1 up. You will also notice the FIB Retracement tools and the FIB extention tools on the chart. I am just trying to see how the Price moves fit into the EW Rules I have encountered. 1. if w5 down is finished, then we should expect the new wave 1 up to over balance this diagonal w5 down. 2. looking at how price has already developed for this wave 1 up and using the internal swings to project the end of it, a. 1st we see that wave i is almost equal to wave iii. But wave iii is slightly longer. b. the guideline on extended waves show that if wave i and wave iii are almost equal and do not clearly show any form of extention, then we expect wave v to be extended. c. moreover, wave v is expected to be 161.8% of w0 to w3 and that means w0 to w iii. That gives us a projected top of FE 161.8 234.03. But because this is GBPJPY, often times it still exceeds this by going for FE 178.6 @ 234.78..... But I would settle for FE 161.8 @ 234.78 d. From this rally, we expect it to be followed by a DIP which is the retracement of our wave 1 up by going down towards 78.6% retracement ( 226.24 ) or up to 85% @ 225.54 or even till 100% retracement @ 223.91. Count is invalidated by price dipping lower than 223.91. SO SL @ 223.90 EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

Nov 18, 2007 8:37am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

Charts 1-5 Attached Thumbnails                __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

hefeiddd

Nov 18, 2007 8:40am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

Charts 6-10 Attached Thumbnails                __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1189    Nov 18, 2007 8:48am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

Charts 11-15 Attached Thumbnails                __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

hefeiddd

Nov 18, 2007 1:49pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

Charts 16 to 18 Attached Thumbnails          __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1191    Nov 18, 2007 7:25pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

Closed the GAP Rallied to 228.32 Expecting a potential retrace to 227 to end expanded flat wave 4 oooopppss wrong point of reference ended wave b of wave 4 on 5min chart Whole of wave 4 is corrective flat (regular) So target is 226.81 for FE 100.0 sorry EG __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1192    Nov 18, 2007 9:06pm

JackSpade Member Member Since Jan 2006 17 Posts

usdjpy Nice charts EG. Here some waves Ive been looking at. I got the original red & yellows from the Elliot wave newsletter (their count was on the yen futures as I recall, so `upside down` to us). I notice that the pink 50% is close to the green 62% and also broken support at yellow (i). Im going to wait and see if it pauses up around there for a short, if it even goes back up there that is... Attached Thumbnails

Exited trades with minimal profit after realizingthat wave 3 was 425% of wave 1.

This could mean a further dip for this pair before it starts going Up again.

Staying on the sidelines even on DEMO. Will wait for the move up.

EG
Attached Thumbnails   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


Last edited by el grande, Nov 18, 2007 10:46pm Reason: add chart

#1198    Nov 18, 2007 10:56pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

exited too soon. after reviewing wave structure again this is what I came up with. have re -entered for the long trades once more EG I am trading this on DEMO. So Sl is quite big @ 300 Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1199    Nov 18, 2007 11:13pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

the reason why I decided to re enter my long trade is because when I re-assessed the wave structure... I was projecting a wave 4 @ around 227.71 because if the leg up from 226.66 was wave a and will be a 5 wave structure, then after seeing wave 1 to be almost same as wave 3, then by the guideline of wave extention, wave 5 would have to be 161.8 of w0 to w3. that would land it at 227.71 to 227.79 But this would mean over 61.8% retracement for wave 4. I am assuming that wave 4 will only retrace that much if it was developing a zigzag wave. However, wave 2 was already a zigzag , so wave 4 can only be a complex sideways corrective wave. And most sideways corrective waves will only retrace 38.2% of wave 3. Therefore, after seeing the new labelling I made where I was able to fit a w1 equal to w5 for the guideline on wave 3 Extention, I therefore concluded that the move up is already the beginning of the wave 5 UP to end the sub-wave1 ( @ 234.03 to 234.78 ) of c inside Big wave B up which should bring us to the area of (241.35) EG Remeber to watch the waves as they unfold because there will always be retracements that could wipe out all the gains now. For a Longer term Position, 1 would need an SL to be 1 pip below 223.91 @ 223.90 When we reach 234 level, it is very likely that price will retrace from 50% to 85% or 100% of its move from 223.91. So be very careful. __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1200    Nov 19, 2007 2:25am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

ending diagonalC? Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

hefeiddd

Nov 19, 2007 10:12pm

daytek Member Member Since Jan 2007 57 Posts

It seems like we might have another chance to launch some longs...if this one fails then the H and S pattern would certainly hold... Attached Thumbnails

#1202    Nov 20, 2007 9:24pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

Sorry all. My mind seems not working right now. I can't find a good wave count to present after that weekend analysis basically failed. Back to my books now. EG __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1203    Nov 21, 2007 2:33pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

Hey Daytek... Thank you for posting your chart here. I hope to see more of your chart... Ok.... Here is what I see in the GBPJPY now EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1204    Nov 21, 2007 4:13pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

Alternative counts Attached Thumbnails       __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1205    Nov 21, 2007 11:30pm

daytek Member Member Since Jan 2007 57 Posts

Tomorrow is an american holiday so i dont have an intraday plan but it could be an interesting day to see what will develop for the future...see if the current levels are holding or if it is time to seek more possibilities. Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

Nov 23, 2007 9:00am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

Attached Charts Attached Thumbnails          __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1208    Nov 23, 2007 9:19am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

Below are my current charts for this weekend and for next week. Let us see how these charts will perform.. EG Attached Thumbnails                      __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS Last edited by el grande, Nov 23, 2007 9:50am

hefeiddd

Nov 23, 2007 9:29am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

Alternative Count on 15min alternative replacing f I did not notice I had not yet moved the iv wave label. seems like market will be in correction till closing or will have the start of the move down again. Price will probably have a GAP Down by Monday Open ASIA to finish the Sub wave 3 down of the final wave 5 then Wednesday a wave 34 retracement then a Friday Plunge. End of the month. EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1210    Nov 23, 2007 10:11am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

New LOW is made So I need to change the count on the 15min. That means I need to re work all the charts I made above till the 1 hr chart. Lookd like this is the the wave 3 inside a wave 3 of a wave 5. EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1211    Nov 23, 2007 10:39am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

Suggested TP Levels if this continues down: Daily S3 @ 220.44 Weekly S2 @ 219.69 and if it still breaks above level.... next I see is weekly S3 @ 215.48 Some how, if this does fall below 220.44... I am favoring 219.69 then expext a retrace... thus cancelling current weekly S3 as the next target. Next week, we will have new Weekly and Daily Pivot and Resistance/Support Levels. EG __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1212    Nov 23, 2007 11:51am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

Another revised 15 min count Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1213    Nov 23, 2007 2:01pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

Looks like I will have to say goodbye to my short trade. Looking for a retrace of sub wave 1 towards 50% 222.15 61.8% 221.94 78.6% 221.64 85% 221.52 And we should be Good for Longs from there and most likely surpussing the 251 position. the ending diagonal triangle will fit into a wave 5 label. And this would somehow end the plunge as this is the end of BIG wave C Down of the Corrective Wave 4 on the Daily Chart. A Break above the downward upper trendline will give me a better confirmation for the Trend reversal. EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1214    Nov 23, 2007 3:45pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

Exited my short trade at a loss. Will wait to enter anew after a retracement towards the previous low. Based on the ending diagonal triangle, this sub wave 1 up may hit the upper downtrendline as it coincides with the 261.8% fib extention from the sub wave 1 of sub wave 1. or follow Wave Equality w5 = w1 But more likely take the 127.6% FE based on historical observation. Then make a retrace back down before moving UP. They say that a breakout of an ending diagonal triangle could be very powerful that it normally exceeds the the whole length of the triangle itself. And I think this would have quite a lot of weight as the ending diagonal triangle (if it plays out) is found in the 4hour Timeframe. Today I broke my own rule. After getting a little more than 135 pips (this morning) which is my Daily target I am supposed to just study or demo . Now I had to give it back again becfause I missed that ending diagonal triangle. I got lost in the wave count for this 5th wave. I failed to realize at once the possibility of an ending diagonal triangle which causes an overlap among the waves and w3 could also be the shortest among w1 w3 and w5. So for next time, I realize my 2 evident mistakes and next time I should remember to correct. 1. To monitor potential waves 1 or A for possibility of a leading diagonal triangle instead of an impulse wave . or for waves 5 or C for potential ending diagonal waves instead of an impulse wave. 2. to scan for this patterns in all time frames specially the time frames higher than 15 mins. 3. to keep reviewing ew counts on the daily, 4 hr and the 1hr charts and to avoid getting drowned in the ew counts of the lower time frame. This is getting much easier now. Yes I still make a lot of mistakes on my ew counts. But learning from these mistakes by knowing what went wrong helps me understand and remember the rules better. what ever I lose on my live trades because of error in counting waves, will just have to be considered as additional expenses in learning. Right now... I only trade the smallest amount allowed by my broker. I can only increase that when I can get a full week of 135x5=675pips minimum in a week. If I get more than 135 already for the day, I will only trade again for the day if I have an extra50 pips from my daily quota. That is the only amount at risk I will allow myself for another trade in the day beyond my target. ( that includes the spread of 20 per trade ). this should make me more careful with additional trades and limit potential loss. This means I will only allow my trade a maximum of 30 pips drawdown. Otherwise, I call it a day. Trying to build discipline here for myself. HAPPY WEEKEND EVERYONE. EG Attached Thumbnails                __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1215    Nov 23, 2007 4:06pm

marketwavez Senior Member Member Since Nov 2006   768 Posts

Longer-Term ( Usd/Yen ) -------------------------- - Is the Usd/Yen going to hell in a hand basket ?........... How much lower do you thhink ............? ------------------------------------------------------------ Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

Nov 24, 2007 2:09am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

Hi marketwavez. I have a different perspective with respect to the USDJPY Count as you will see in the charts below. I am still unclear as to the complexity of the wave 4 on the monthly. Downward trendline was breached and retraced. EG Attached Thumbnails                   __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

hefeiddd

Nov 24, 2007 3:12am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

GBPJPY Looking at the 4 hour chart and studying the ending diagonal pattern.... this looks like the diagonal pattern may not breach that upper down trendline afterall. Based on the description of an ending diagonal triangle wave 5, all waves are expected to be in 3 wave form. So now I potentially see price on the 4 hour chart to range till it hits the upper downtrendline then makes a zigzag as it goes down the point of the ending diagonal triangle Before we can expect any break out with a substantial move to the upside which could then be considered as a trend reversal. Being the end of a big wave c down of the corrective wave 4 down on the Daily, I then would consider that the GBPJPY is back on an UPTREND from that low. Targets would be a truncated 5th wave UP below previous 251.32 previous HIGH or the FE 100.0 @ 259.85 which is the level at which C=A on the monthly chart. But of course that would take months to most probably over a year to achieve. But then again, anything can still happen through the course of time. These are basically just long term forecasts which needs to be reviewed at least every week to see if they still apply to what is happening in the market. EG Attached Thumbnails                      __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

hefeiddd

Nov 24, 2007 3:18am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

Here is somethingelse to think about Head and shoulders in relation to the EW and Fibonacci studies on Price Here is where I see a conflict. A head and shoulder Pattern sees a breach to the lower side for a longer term down trend. But based on the EW Count, Price is expected to potentially breakout of the upper down-trendline of that ending diagonal triangle. These are I think 2 opposite expectations if I am not mistaken. We will thus have to wait for price to develop and see which one it proves right. Another thing I noticed is that if the ending diagonal triangle works out, then it also falls in the range of 61.8 - 78.6% FIB Projection for wave C based on its relationship to wave A. EG Attached Thumbnails       __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

Nov 26, 2007 3:13am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

Looking for a wave 2 retracement or a wave 5 throwover to complete the ending Diagonal Triangle and See the Trend reversal. But could all change favoring the continued move upside once the upper downward resistance trendline of the diagonal triangle is breached. EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1226    Nov 26, 2007 7:09am

kevmcfoster Jai Shewaramani Member Since Sep 2006 82 Posts

hi just thought i would post another possibility of EW count for 4 hour gbpjpy Incase I'm wrong, plz let me knw. kevin Attached Thumbnails    __________________ It is better to be approximately right than precisely wrong To be the Best, you have to beat the Rest!!! It doesn't matter what you know, it's how you use it...

#1227    Nov 26, 2007 3:58pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

Potential Moves Attached Thumbnails       __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

Thank you EG...I have to say that you are doing a wonderful job. And I'm learning quite a bit from you and am hoping to continue learning from your charts and explanation. Thank you for this.

Also, just wanted to add to your potential moves chart...plz rectify me if im wrong.

Thank you once again
kevin :-)
Attached Thumbnails   

__________________
It is better to be approximately right than precisely wrong

To be the Best, you have to beat the Rest!!!

It doesn't matter what you know, it's how you use it...

#1230    Nov 26, 2007 5:48pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,792 Posts

Updated Potential Moves. EG Attached Thumbnails            __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

hefeiddd

Nov 26, 2007 8:47pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

update scenario 2 Attached Thumbnails          __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1233    Nov 26, 2007 8:52pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

update for scenario 1 Attached Thumbnails          __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1234    Nov 26, 2007 9:30pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

Barrier Triangle for a Bearish Continuation and Attached Thumbnails       __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

hefeiddd

Nov 28, 2007 10:31pm

daytek Member Member Since Jan 2007 57 Posts

Update post 1205 Here is a little update of the prior charts... as for tomorrow anything i have 2 possible scenarios, lets see how it plays out 230.25 area up to 231.20 would be my first potential reversal zone. Attached Thumbnails

#1239    Nov 29, 2007 12:59am

niceguy777 Infractions Overload Member Since Oct 2005   305 Posts

Quote: Originally Posted by daytek It's all about possibilities...you simply chart various possible scenarios and you trade the one that suits you the best with your money management, if you know how to scale positions, nothing can beat Ew...but again this is just my opinion. Well, actually, no. But then, you probably haven't seen the Framework that I am talking about. Come to a webcast and I can explain more - as I did to the fib guy at EWI, who agreed with what I was saying... __________________ The framework is there; we just have to work on our frame of mind.

#1240    Nov 29, 2007 4:51am

money Multiple Usernames Member Since Jul 2007   106 Posts

USD/JPY check it out http://www.trading-fx.si/fx/sloanaliza.htm Wish you nice trading and many pips

#1241    Nov 29, 2007 5:41am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

GBPJPY Update for Potential Direction Attached Thumbnails       __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

hefeiddd

Nov 29, 2007 10:05am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

possible scenario SL @b 225.35 EG Attached Thumbnails                   __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1243    Nov 30, 2007 3:38am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

GBPJPY Wave 3 Based on my chart and EW Count, GBPJPY is poised to unleash its power during the NY session onwards today. Point 0 @ 225.70 Point 1 @ 227.16 Point 2 @ 226.11, 225.90 Point 3 @ 227.83 Point 4 I believe went into an expanded flat corrective wavea nd ended @ 227.11 Now Wave 4 is stil expanding and looks like producing a Symmetrical triangle. So we probably have an expanded flat and a symmetrical triangle for this wave 4. As it is still expanding sideways now on the 15min chart, it could be ripe to shoot up after NY session opens. Sometimes when you look at your charts for too long, you get to see some distinct patterns like this one and you will be able to (like in my case now) take a wild guess on what is next to happen. And with the help of EW, I think we have a very good chance. Happy trading everyone. EG __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1244    Nov 30, 2007 3:45am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

Quote: Originally Posted by niceguy777 Well, actually, no. But then, you probably haven't seen the Framework that I am talking about. Come to a webcast and I can explain more - as I did to the fib guy at EWI, who agreed with what I was saying... Would you be nice enough to go by your name and start a thread where you can discuss this Framework you are talking about? But should you decide or prefer to discuss it here, I would be honoured to host that in this thread. However if you are out to entice people to your webcast to lure them into paying for a course, I think you should do that on a different thread. Many here write in this forum to share and learn from each other FOR FREE. I know you have not placed your web site link here. So I googled the topic and I ended up in your webside. Now if that was not your website and you are not trying to lure people to your webcast so that they enroll in your sessions for a fee, then please accept my apology. I in particular am interested in the Framework you have hinted. I use FIBS and many different ways in my trading system. So, learning something new from you would really be a good addition to my trading analysis. EG __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1245    Nov 30, 2007 4:49am

kevmcfoster Jai Shewaramani Member Since Sep 2006 82 Posts

Hi EG I wanted to thank you again for teaching all of us the method of EW. I have been learning from you and doin some analysis on my own too, and initiating trades on my mini account...so far has been profitable..as u can see that in the chart below. (The profit is in terms of points) Thank you and keep up the good work Kevin Attached Thumbnails    __________________ It is better to be approximately right than precisely wrong To be the Best, you have to beat the Rest!!! It doesn't matter what you know, it's how you use it...