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- 2006-7-3
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发表于 2009-4-10 11:36
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Jul 19, 2007 4:53pm
| |  ON a wave Y down of a wave 4 down
I am going to follow the last chart I posted above which has the Light Green Labels showing that we are in a wxy or wxyxxz corrective wave.
I am attaching new chart below.
on my demo account. The Sell Stop I placed was triggered and right after that touch, price suddenly went up putting me on the negative. I was not around to baby sit that.. I managed to get some pips though when it went down to 490 again.
Anyway, on my chart you will see buy and sell lines. I do hedge on this demo.
But on my LIVE account, I entered a LONG Trade right before the US News. I was thinking that ( "which I now want to kick myself for thinking and not wait to follow the EW Count and get a better entry) I could take my chances on this one.
If I trade Long and the news goes with me, then that was good. However , if the news went against me, I would just hold on to my position until it goes on my direction again.
Now, I think that is the real beauty of EW Theory. We have or I feel we have a fighting chance at preserving our resources ( capital ) . There is that " greater possibility that the trend is going to pick me up and allow me to ride the wave when it goes my way again. Knowing that we are still in a corrective wave and aware of how big a corrective wave we are in, allows us to somehow project our SL.
Now back to the chart, currently, wave projection is for a C or Y wave. Now here is were I still have to continue my research. I need to know Price projections for the corrective waves specially when labels are in WxY or WxYxxZ format.
This is my current take. I am not going to add on to my position right now or trade live until it goes back to its wave trend up. I will use this time to study more on corrective waves and their projections.
 Unlike before, I was always itching to trade. This time, I will exercise a little more patience in waiting. There is the Demo anyway for testing. Now I understand how those "snipers" feel. This has become less stressful for me.
But mind you, this is now walk in the park. I still need to study a lot. But what is nice about this is that I like doing it. Trading is a field that involves multiple subjects and discipline.
OK. Off to our charts again and I will be back looking for answers to my questions.
Happy Trading Everyone
EG
Attached Thumbnails
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#92
 Jul 21, 2007 5:49am
| | Cable Projections I came up with
I have been dabbling with Wave projections from various starting points and I am presenting below Levels which I came up with.
These are projections for the end of a wave 5 in a wave 3, while others are projections for end of wave 3.
2.0643
2.0648
2.0759
2.0771
2.0933
2.0959
2.1009
2.1218
2.1263
2.1593
Extreme Levels
2.1689
2.1753
2.2550
2.2559
Price levels above have just been arranged chronologically. However, they actually come from various computations and projections using Elliott Wave or from what I would say (my own understanding of what Elliott Wave Theory was trying to teach me) and Levels of retracement I am currently testing.
If I am wrong, it is not because of Elliott Wave Theory. It would most likely be due to my failure to understand and apply the Wave Theory in my Analysis.
Anyway, I have therefore come to the conclusion that with an outlook such as what I have presented above, it would be wise to practice swing trading.
I have a confession to make..... I know I said I would not trade that previous correction. Well... I could not resist the itch and I got burned. I lost all the pips I profited since the beginning of the week in less than 24 hours.
Really never counter trade a main trend. Anyway, getting back to what I am proposing, this should be less stressful. I can leave a trade running and just move my SL Levels which I will layout and probably adjust as time goes on. And then I will study on how to and when to add on to an existing trade.
So here is the plan:
@ Market Open :
Open a Long Trade for GBPUSD. with TP @ 2.1750
SL 1 @ 2.0450 when reaching 2.0625 move SL to
SL 2 @ 2.0500 when reaching 2.0750 move SL to
SL 3 @ 2.0650 when reaching 2.0850 move SL to
SL 4 @ 2.0750 when reaching 2.0930 move SL to
SL 5 @ 2.0830 when reaching 2.1000 move SL to
SL 6 @ 2.0900 when reaching 2.1100 move SL to
SL 7 @ 2.1000 when reaching 2.1200 move SL to
SL 8 @ 2.1050 when reaching 2.1300 move SL to
SL 9 @ 2.1150 when reaching 2.1500 move SL to
SL 10 @ 2.1350 when reaching 2.1600 move SL to
SL 11 @ 2.1500 then let it run to 2.1750.
Note that this is more like Position Trading. Incase I get stopped out. I will just have to get back to the drawing board and re assess my Counts. Then find a suitable re-entry point. This should get us pre-occupied on this trade for the rest of the year.
Or should I say, allow us more time for other things. If I have stayed on with the trend last week, I could have increased my capital by at least 90% which was already up by 60% for the week only. Because I played with fire by counter trading the main trend, I am back to what I started with last Monday.
Hopefully with this, I can shift to a more strees free trading. It was stress free trading Elliott Wave last week until I played with fire... Good thing I did not put everything in my trades.
EG
PS. Above is an amateurish attempt at using Elliott Wave Analysis in projecting Price of GBPUSD. It should not be considered as a recommendation for your live trades. Trade at your own risk. And trade with caution. I have wiped out several accounts in almost 1 year of studying forex trading on my Live and demo accounts. You would not want to know how much I have lost on my LIVE Account.
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#93
Jul 21, 2007 6:53pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by marketwavez 
Hi there-
I must commend you on your hard work in understanding that
Chart patterns and Wave-Counts are about geometry....
---------------------------------------------------------------
Here is a look the Gbp/Usd lately
Looks like we may be near the end a Wave 5 ?...........
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Gbp/Usd appears to be near and End of wave 5 of 5
Now looking for some wiggle wiggle movement
towards a " Wave A Low " somewhow ..........
Looking for Prices closing below .0470 ( 2 hr bars ) or (1 hr bars ) to lead to lower prices .
( See chart below )
Attached Thumbnails
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#94
Jul 22, 2007 4:45pm
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I apologize Marketwavez for not acknowledging the chart above which you also posted much earlier here. Yes we could be near the end of Wave 5 ( 2.0643 ) in a big Wave 3 if our projection is 100% of wave 1 if
W0 = 1.9619
W1 = 2.0206
W2 = 2.0055
W3 =
100% = 2.0643
161.8% = 2.1009
261.8% = 2.1593
Other values I posted are ends of Wave 3 being part of other sub-waves smaller than this bigger Wave 3.
I also look into Chart Patterns and it is true that we are nearly finished in an upward wedge. If this wedge plays out we could be in a retracement for Wave 4 with projections of from at least 20% up to 50% but less than 61.8% unless this wave 4 goes for the maximum of going near the end of Wave 1 but not overlapping it.
My view above and the various projected levels are just my amateurish EW Count and I have placed a caution with it that these are not to be traded Live by others as this could be risky. I trade it with my own money but not with all my money as I know there are risks here.
SL Levels I have enumerated above still carry a lot of risk. I could get stopped out even before the bullish trend resumes. But it is a system I am willing to test.
If Wave 3.5 ends at 2.0625 for example, retracements could be 2.0490, 2.0407, and 2.0339. This is why I could still lose money in this trade if indeed we retrace at 2.0625 for our wave 4.
On the brighter side though, we could take this opportunity to enter for a Wave 5 from a lower beginning and thus gather more pips till it ends finally.
Thank you for providing your insights here.
It is much appreciated.
EG
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#95
Jul 22, 2007 6:47pm
| | Sunday Open
If we are in a Wave 4, we may have just finished it at 50% retracement from that top. It is a possibility I would consider to support my new long which I placed at the open and retraced on me for 25 pips.
Missed to enter at that Dip for my Long and also missed to save 84 pips total on 3 short positions I closed last Saturday.
But life goes on and I made a decision. I will do my best to ride this wave up now.
EG
Attached Thumbnails
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#96
Jul 23, 2007 4:02pm
| | Update
Yesterday, I managed to get a few pips in the pocket from the market open. I lost a few too. But overall, it was a good enough considering that I was not on my computer for nearly whole of the asian session.
16 gained 3 lost for a net of 13 pips. I missed to gain that shot up to 2.0604 though near the Euro session which could have given me around 40-50 pips additional. My TP was set at 2.1000. So I missed that.
Anyway, I have 1 remaining LIVE Long Trade @2.0569 which is currently at neg10 pips. I was hoping to close it atthe least @ breakeven so I can free all my capital and wait for a Dip to 2.0520-540 and place my NEW Long Trades from there with SL @ 2.0490. From here, I expect us to start that ride up to 2.0700 then 2.0900 and 2.1000.
Attached is the record of the LIVE trade yesterday. Forward trade on the table is about 10 pips lower than what you see on your Platformand so is the value at closing time. Brokers spread is at 7 pips. So if I was trading this on a broker's platform using MT4, I think I would still be on better +pip count.
Definitely, I will not trade the run downhill at this point. I will just wait for it to reach my target levels then enter my Long trades from there.
Attached Thumbnails
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#97
Jul 23, 2007 8:05pm
| | Asian Open
This is my current count .
This means that we reached end of Wave 5 or 3.5.1.5 @2.0602.
Let me put this in another way. My Objective is the end of a Big Wave 3 @ 2.1000 up to 2.1500. For now, we could be near the end of a Wave B inside wave 2 inside wave5 of wave 3. It would be better if you look at the chart.
On this big Wave 3 I would look forward to the following :
2.0842 up to 2.0900 towards the end of July such as July 27 perhaps
2.1000 to 2.1144 around Mid-August or as early as 8-11
Like many other forex traders who are searching for more knowledge about the way the market behaves, most important on the list is knowing when to expect the market to turn substantially to make it worthwhile to exit a winning trade and re-enter at a new low for Long trades or a new high for short trades. This way, we maximize profit potential. Or for the more aggressive ones.... they can trade the retracement of a major trend.
My Elliott Wave understanding is still based on the Price projections for Forward and Retracement Movement of Price. We see potential target levels based on studies made by so many people that traders have already come to a sort of conclusion that we could use these as guides.
So that when price reaches 1 of this levels, traders can exit their trades or use it as a confirmation that they are indeed in the type of wave they have been trading and therefore need not exit but allow the trades to run to the target of the next higher degree wave.
Currently I am experimenting on ways to project price with time. I have tried looking into materials on Gann. There is just so much that Icould not digest it. It probably works. But at this point I am finding some difficulty comprehending them.
I am not giving up on my quest to determine time with price. So I am working on something different to determine if there is a relationship in visual observation and with minor computations to the actual time of a projected price.
First 2 above would be a beginning result of that experiment.
Just to make it clear to everyone..... I am not selling anything here. I am just on a journey to find a method or system that would help in Projecting Price and Time which should enhance Results of my Elliott Wave Counts.
Good Trading Everyone
EG
PS. I just realized, that it could be possible that maybe somebody out there is aware of any Elliott Wave Material or reference that includes time in its projection. If it does exist, could somebody point me to that direction? Thank you.
Attached Thumbnails
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#98
Jul 23, 2007 8:11pm
| | Update 2
enhanced chart
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#99
Jul 25, 2007 7:13am
| | 072507
Chart by Marketwavez played out very well. We seem to have set 2.0652 as the top of this WAVE 3.
The Chart I am attaching now would show where my new targets are for this retracement. This is on 4 Hour chart.
Although my 5 and 15minute charts still show some room for going up, main trend will be going down for now. Targets are shown on the chart. Including probable fibonacci levels to use.
The move up on the 5min chart is probably the wave x inside a Wave A and will then continue down for the wave y in Wave A. But remember that this Wave A could also be a 5 wave movement.
Happy Trading Everyone
EG
PS. move up on the 5m chart could end @ 38.2% 2.0547 or at 50% 2.0555-0560
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#100
Jul 25, 2007 7:43am
| | My Count on the Daily
Daily
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#101
Jul 25, 2007 7:46am
| | POssible Scenario on the 4H
4H
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#102
Jul 25, 2007 8:00am
| | A Little Spice
AUDUSD Test
Attached Thumbnails
Last edited by el grande, Jul 25, 2007 8:02am Reason: removed grids on original
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#103
Jul 25, 2007 8:19am
| | NZDUSD Test
NZDUSD Test on m15 Chart
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#104
Jul 25, 2007 8:30am
| | AUDUSD m5
AUDUSD m5 Test
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invalid count 
[/td]
but I agree with your call.
