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发表于 2009-4-10 12:42
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Sep 24, 2007 6:23pm
| |  GBPUSD
Quote:
Originally Posted by africanpip 
Possibly....also see where it coincides with the trendline down, that point might be a good entry. also depends where the end of 3.1 is.
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Hi AP.
MY Sell Limit Order @ 2.0296 was not hit while I slept.
Will Wait for a good entry and will just leave this Sell Limit Order but will lower it to 2.0285 for now.
I am attaching what I see as a potential scenario or this 1st Leg Down.
But first, a 5 wave impulse must be seen as completely formed lower than Yellow 54 for the wave 31 or the 1st leg of wave 3 down.
Then a retrace of at least 61.8% UP for the wave 32.
Then if indeed this is wave 3 down, by using the FIB Extention tool, my TP for wave 33 will be in the range of 2.0069 and 2.0018
Let us see how this unfolds during the Asian Session.
EG
Attached Thumbnails
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#647
 Sep 24, 2007 6:37pm
| | GBPJPY
Up to know, Direction for me is still not clear for this pair.
Although it has dipped to 231.72 on my chart, that was still valid as a wave 4 retracement as it did not overlap with my wave 1 at 231.58
But if you check your charts, price now at 0631 in Asia, has encountered some resistance at 232.27 which is the monthly pivot and barely touched the 50 EMA with a long upper wicked Candlestick. On the 1hour chart, price met resistance at the 1hour 50EMA itself.
Stochastics at 15m chart is already overbought while the 30m and 1 hour have move out of over sold territory. However, 4h stochastics remain pointing down.
I remain Bearish on this pair while the 4 hour stochs is still pointing down together with the 5m and 15m.
EG
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Sep 24, 2007 7:18pm Reason: correction to overbought
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#648
Sep 24, 2007 7:16pm
| | GBPJPY
If price goes lower than 231.58 then I think we either get a confirmation that we had a truncated 5th wave or the red label counting was correct.
Should it be that we already saw the Top at 233.67, then I have my bias to select the red counting over the truncated 5th wave.
This bias is based on time factor that a probable wave 4 took to unfold compared to wave 2.
SO to move on with this bias in analysis, attached chart would show that my current target for the end of the 1st leg is in the range of 231.07 - 230.71
If it goes lower than 231.88, there is a likelihood that it will fall further towards 230.47
EG
Attached Thumbnails
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#649
Sep 24, 2007 8:41pm
| | GBPJPY Update
was having difficulty posting this chart earlier as it was unfolding.
now waiting for a 38.2% retrace Up to the 232.00 Level as minimum retracement.
but will still be watching how this correction will unfold.
Finally out at a profit in of the short trade I placed at 232 last Friday.
But still nursing a much lower short trade I placed Friday morning.
EG
Finally attached it
Attached Thumbnails
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#650
Sep 24, 2007 9:14pm
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so far my charts are playing out well
How's everyone else doing?
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#651
Sep 24, 2007 9:18pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by s3padrian
so far my charts are playing out well
How's everyone else doing?
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Glad to know you are doing well Adrian.
Mine is ok. I may have exited too early with 1 of my short trades. BUt that is ok. just waiting for a retrace. Other one is still being nursed from last week.
But, this pair seems to be going south so I will let that ride.
EG
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#652
Sep 24, 2007 9:30pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by el grande
Hi AP.
MY Sell Limit Order @ 2.0296 was not hit while I slept.
Will Wait for a good entry and will just leave this Sell Limit Order but will lower it to 2.0285 for now.
I am attaching what I see as a potential scenario or this 1st Leg Down.
But first, a 5 wave impulse must be seen as completely formed lower than Yellow 54 for the wave 31 or the 1st leg of wave 3 down.
Then a retrace of at least 61.8% UP for the wave 32.
Then if indeed this is wave 3 down, by using the FIB Extention tool, my TP for wave 33 will be in the range of 2.0069 and 2.0018
Let us see how this unfolds during the Asian Session.
EG
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GBPUSD
Retrace to 32 did not happen. But 33 seems to be very close now to 2.0069
EG
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#653
Sep 24, 2007 10:32pm
| | GBPJPY Update
update
Attached Thumbnails
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#654
Sep 25, 2007 12:28am
| | daily
Quote:
Originally Posted by el grande
GBPUSD
Retrace to 32 did not happen. But 33 seems to be very close now to 2.0069
EG
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Hi EG,
On the the daily I am expecting support around the 2.0100 area and the end of C.3.1 it may coincide with housing news later. I will close my short there. We should see a retrace to around 220/250 for C.3.2.
Let's see what happens.
AP.
__________________
Eish!
If you don't fly with the eagles you'll scratch with the turkeys
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#655
Sep 25, 2007 1:06am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by africanpip
Hi EG,
On the the daily I am expecting support around the 2.0100 area and the end of C.3.1 it may coincide with housing news later. I will close my short there. We should see a retrace to around 220/250 for C.3.2.
Let's see what happens.
AP.
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2.0100 is my weekly pivot
2.0091 is my monthly pivot
1.9986 is the weekly support level 1
EG
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#656
Sep 25, 2007 2:58am
| | closed
Quote:
Originally Posted by el grande
2.0100 is my weekly pivot
2.0091 is my monthly pivot
1.9986 is the weekly support level 1
EG
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EG,
I closed at 100, now I will see how many pips I left on the table, but otherwise more than happy with performance of this trade. I will be out until after news, IF we are going to see wave 2 develop up it should be typical 2 behaviour so we need to watch for the signs, if all goes according to plan we should move back to 230 area.
Regards
AP
__________________
Eish!
If you don't fly with the eagles you'll scratch with the turkeys
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#657
Sep 25, 2007 4:03am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by el grande
GBPUSD
Retrace to 32 did not happen. But 33 seems to be very close now to 2.0069
EG
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i disagree...i think now is completing wave A...then retrace up as wave B...normally 50% of wave A...then wave C... up to 161.8 from wave A
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#658
Sep 25, 2007 2:43pm
| | GBPJPY
GBPJPY Count Revision _ over extended sub wave 3
4hour stochs is likey to re visit over sold levels
EG
PS.
Count of wave 4 is invalidated if price goes higher than 232.37
In the meantimewatch the wave development in the 5m and 1m time frames if you want and relate to the 15m and 30m.
What worries me though is the Bullish engulfing candlestick on the 4hour chart and its crossing back up on the 4 our trendline Support which it just broke.....
This could also mean that wave 1 was finished and we are now on wave 2 UP retracement.4 hur stochs will continue to go up. we could also be seeing a sub wave b unfolding now and 4-8 hours later the end of sub wave c UP to finish off the wave 2 retracement towards 61.8 to 78.6% retracement from the 233.60 high and the 229.72 low
BUt I am sticking with my count but setting my SL at 232.38
I am going back to sleep. and wont leave any trade on for now. will watch during the asian session. I managed to get 98 pips when I placed a Long trade last night before I went to sleep after seeing what I initially thought was already wave 5 and my 4hour stochs with the rest of the lower TF Stochs turning up. (Maybe lucky huh?) then I woke up to see it start coming down again just in time.
edit / update I did enter a trade @ 230.95 and setting my SL at 231.40 to support a wave 4 count. this would be enough to risk while I sleep. got my 98 pips last . TP is @ 227.60. I am expecting wave 5 to over extend too at TP2 would be at 225.70
Attached Thumbnails
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Sep 25, 2007 3:36pm Reason: UPDATE
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#659
Sep 25, 2007 3:27pm
| | GBPJPY
Why I am biased that a Wave 4 has occurred...
I see an expanded wave 2 while this wave 4 is a sharp wave
if this is a sharp wave, then a 45% retracement of wave 3 is valid as wave 4 is from 23.6 to about 50% of wave 3 with some instances of up to 61.8% retracement for as long as it does not over lap with wave 1
for now the next higher peak of 231.37 is 1 pip lower than the 231.38.... This could be the sub wave 2 of the wave 5 down coming close to a 100% retracement of the sub wave 1.
just my thoughts before I go back to sleep here.
Happy harvest everyone
EG
Attached Thumbnails
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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ehehe..
Still have two EW cable counts... 
