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- 2006-7-3
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发表于 2009-4-10 15:16
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Oct 31, 2007 12:56pm
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adjusted because of new high
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EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#926
 Oct 31, 2007 1:36pm
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Alternative Count
Spotted this on a different Chart I was working on.
EG
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__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#927
Oct 31, 2007 2:42pm
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23.6% retracement was hit.
I would now assume that a rate cut of .50 will fuel price increase for this Pair.
That the Plunge it is now in is but a pull back and will eventually be parallel with the Elliott Wave Count.
Meaning after this wave 4 retrace, it will continue going up.
I got stopped out for 75 pips inclusive of 18 pip spread on 1 long trade.
My other short was exited for 230 pip loss.
I Exited all trades. Will see what we have tomorrow for this pair.
Hedged my earlier so basically lost around 200 pips inclusive of 2x18 pipspread NET for the day.
*** Just noting here that Price plunge hit 50EMA 60 and 62 EMA on 15 min charts
EG
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__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#928
Oct 31, 2007 2:52pm
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Unfortunately, FF Calendar is wrong. The rate cut was 0.25% down to 4.5% Federal Funds rate. The discount rate was also cut 0.25% down to 5%.
Official release: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsev.../20071031a.htm
So, yes it's a cut which the market had already priced in, pretty much, so you saw a retrace to 238.50 (Hope you did TP??! Good call on target).
It was not, however, a cut of 0.50.
Pips4life
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#929
Oct 31, 2007 3:11pm
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P.S.
That was a risky short (! oops, I said "long" before editing) trade for Wave 4 just before big rate news, but it did play out well.
For the life of me, when I saw a cut of 0.50 on FF web site, I could not fathom why GJ was tanking so far. Yes, I've seen some news announcements which are bullish, and the very first prices spike downwards, but it's very short lived and moves steadily upwards.
Here we had supposedly very bullish news but the market went down???
But then, when I learned it was only 0.25 cut, then while that would ordinarily be bullish also, it had been priced in, and the EW count ruled! It was time for a retrace, and the news was in line with expectations, so while it was volatile, it did go down. But it also makes sense it only hit the first (higher) retrace target, because of course, it is bullish.
Having said that it's bullish... it's very strange to me that UJ and GJ are still more or less tracking each other the same. It seems to me if the draw is as a "carry trade", then the interest differential is what makes it work. The GBP interest is growing higher than the USD rate which would argue that GJ would have more of an upside than UJ. Therefore, so would GU, I guess...
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#930
Oct 31, 2007 4:00pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pips4life 
P.S.
That was a risky short (! oops, I said "long" before editing) trade for Wave 4 just before big rate news, but it did play out well.
*** Actually I placed 2 opposite trades during the early asian session as an experiment after calculating potential top and available capital to protect acount for SL. But I exited my 2 Long trades early and got stuck waiting for a retracment for a new Long trade. That is why the short trade loss ballooned to about 200 pip loss.
I did not add a short trade to trade that wave 4. but instead placed a Long trade. I made a mistake though about my SL as it was too tight for this pair PLUS I should have noted the 23.6% potential retracement.
For the life of me, when I saw a cut of 0.50 on FF web site, I could not fathom why GJ was tanking so far. Yes, I've seen some news announcements which are bullish, and the very first prices spike downwards, but it's very short lived and moves steadily upwards.
Here we had supposedly very bullish news but the market went down???
*** I got into the mindset that NEWS does not really influence the long term trend of EW Counts. It could expand a wave develpment though and take longer to develop. But eventually it gets back in line with the EW Count. That is why I was still thinking Bullish on this pair even before the news.
Honestly though , it helped reading that majority of the traders I was scanning were expecting a rate cut except that they were not unanimous as to the actual rate cut.
But then, when I learned it was only 0.25 cut, then while that would ordinarily be bullish also, it had been priced in, and the EW count ruled! It was time for a retrace, and the news was in line with expectations, so while it was volatile, it did go down. But it also makes sense it only hit the first (higher) retrace target, because of course, it is bullish.
Having said that it's bullish... it's very strange to me that UJ and GJ are still more or less tracking each other the same. It seems to me if the draw is as a "carry trade", then the interest differential is what makes it work. The GBP interest is growing higher than the USD rate which would argue that GJ would have more of an upside than UJ. Therefore, so would GU, I guess...
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Still toying with my charts.
Attaching a chart with some labels which are not to be taken as EW Count. I would prefer to call it Pulse Chart.. still experimenting on it.
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__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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