- 金币:
-
- 奖励:
-
- 热心:
-
- 注册时间:
- 2006-7-3
|
|
楼主 |
发表于 2009-4-10 17:54
|
显示全部楼层
Nov 7, 2007 2:37pm
| |  USD-JPY
usd/jpy Elliot on month mnth and daily chart
Attached Thumbnails 
|
#1127
 Nov 7, 2007 8:50pm
| |
 Whew. Boy am I glad I closed those trades last night. 
and increased my SL on the remaining one before I went to bed. That was a huge drawdownlike doubled while I was sleeping  .
Anyway, since I am still learning this EW, it is thus best to use large SLs on LIVE trades so as to have more room while being able to work around ones capital. and have less trades. So that if things turn the otherway, it won't hurt that much. ( but it is still hurts  ).
But need to move on and pick up my books and see what I missed here.
My maximum drawdown for a wave 4 to still be valid was at 235.81. Bottom of that last move was 235.09.
Have to re-work my count again. I apologize to all those following this thread. Time to hit the books. It is quite hard to get a mentor for free so I have to work this oout on my own and hopefully others who post their charts here will continue to post.
This is I believe what most EW Practitioners get nightmares on. That is when they get their counts wrong. But if we practice good Money management, I think we will average out in a profit still.
I am posting my counts and why I chose to label them that way because it forces me to study and learn from others too. If I am right, then good. But if I am wrong, then I have to study some more.
Practicing will help me improve in this.
Thanks FxMt for the morale support.
To Pips4life for his programming skills and his extar ordinary thoughts on ways to analyze wave structure,
To Carman, money, I Wanna Trade, marketwavez, who share their thoughts and their charts.
Keep them coming my friends....
EG
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
|
#1128
Nov 7, 2007 10:23pm
| |
Hey all,
Money is using the same chart I did where I developed my original bearish bias on the USD/JPY since the decline from 124.13 and I saw an entry point once the correction occurred after Wave 1 to 111.58. The terminal thrust from the triangle Money posted could test 101.00. Thanks for posting that chart Money. This extreme bearish trend will drag down the GBP/JPY. Plus, as I said yesterday, the GBP/USD is due for a large reversal as all moment indicators have been in extremes for some time now and are showing divergence (RSI, Stochs.). The dollar is due to rally at any time, and I feel that some news in the either the ECB or BOE rate decisions tomorrow morning will trigger the GBP/USD to reverse and head down sharply. When the USD/JPY and the GBP/USD go down together, the GBP/JPY will follow. The correction GBP/JPY was completing was complex, but I have a possible count which I put in the chart. Like I've said before, like the USD/JPY, the GBP/JPY and the EUR/JPY for that matter, are on their way to test and break through their August lows. If I'm right that the GBP/JPY just completed a failed 5th wave, then it would might be a good idea to get aggressively short right now, or once it tests the top of the channel ahead of the rate decisions to catch the huge reversal coming.
Regards,
Todd
Attached Thumbnails
|
#1129
Nov 7, 2007 11:19pm
| |
Quote:
Originally Posted by I Wanna Trade 
Hey all,
Money is using the same chart I did where I developed my original bearish bias on the USD/JPY since the decline from 124.13 and I saw an entry point once the correction occurred after Wave 1 to 111.58. The terminal thrust from the triangle Money posted could test 101.00. Thanks for posting that chart Money. This extreme bearish trend will drag down the GBP/JPY. Plus, as I said yesterday, the GBP/USD is due for a large reversal as all moment indicators have been in extremes for some time now and are showing divergence (RSI, Stochs.). The dollar is due to rally at any time, and I feel that some news in the either the ECB or BOE rate decisions tomorrow morning will trigger the GBP/USD to reverse and head down sharply. When the USD/JPY and the GBP/USD go down together, the GBP/JPY will follow. The correction GBP/JPY was completing was complex, but I have a possible count which I put in the chart. Like I've said before, like the USD/JPY, the GBP/JPY and the EUR/JPY for that matter, are on their way to test and break through their August lows. If I'm right that the GBP/JPY just completed a failed 5th wave, then it would might be a good idea to get aggressively short right now, or once it tests the top of the channel ahead of the rate decisions to catch the huge reversal coming.
Regards,
Todd
|
Thank you Todd for your Analysis.
I was too engrossed with my wave counts that I failed to really look at how others including your's, Pips4life's and Carman's charts and analysis.
EG
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
|
#1130
Nov 7, 2007 11:46pm
| |
No problem man. I just like writing my thoughts down as it helps me organize and perhaps sharpen my strategy more. If someone takes interest along the way, then all the better.
The dollar, oil and gold are all at potential reversal points, I'm just looking for a signal and an associated wave count to support that signal. But in relation to this forum, the ECB and BOE rate decision looks like a good reversal catalyst, especially because a BOE rate cut is possible. This could actually spark dollar strength and push the EUR/USD down as well. But the point is that if the GBP/USD gets heavy downward pressure which is due any time now, when you take into account the wave count on the USD/JPY, it would severly drag down the GBP/JPY and perhaps validate the wave count I posted above.
Regards, EG, all,
Todd
|
#1131
Nov 8, 2007 4:25am
| |  Still valid ...
Quote:
Originally Posted by el grande
Thank you Todd for your Analysis.
I was too engrossed with my wave counts that I failed to really look at how others including your's, Pips4life's and Carman's charts and analysis.
EG
|
Just in case ... 
Attached Thumbnails
|
#1132
Nov 8, 2007 5:01am
| |
Hi,
Here is my counting for GBP and EUR, I also think there will be a large correction! Any suggestion are very welcomed.... Thx
Attached Thumbnails 
|
#1133
Nov 8, 2007 4:43pm
| |
Thank you all for your charts.
I am more inclined to lean on a Bullish trend for today.
Agreeing with FxMt's Chart...
Attached chart is a 5min GBPJPY where an obvious 5 wave structure is seen going up.
I have not yet checked how this fits in the over all count but this surely looks like wave 1 going up from below.
EG
update: maybe the next chart will do.
Attached Thumbnails
Attached Images
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Nov 8, 2007 4:51pm Reason: add another chart
|
#1134
Nov 8, 2007 5:17pm
| |
another chart
Attached Thumbnails 
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
|
#1135
Nov 8, 2007 5:28pm
| |
new track
Must decisively wait for the 78.6% retrace.
61.8% may be too early for this pair which has been observed to do up to 85% retrace.
EG
Attached Thumbnails
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
|
#1136
Nov 8, 2007 6:23pm
| |
Anybody on DEMO and trading GBPJPY.....
You still have a chance to try out the wave count on your DEMO account.
If you have SHORTS, Unload or reduce exposure. at or near the Daily Pivot at 236.83. better @ 237 then
Load up your LONG Trades or hedge your Short Trades at the same level or @ 236.85.
SL @ 236.50 which is just 1 pip below the wave 1 origin and 1 pip lower the level acceptable for a 100% retracement of wave 1 for wave 2.
GET READY.
EG
Attached Images
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
|
#1137
Nov 8, 2007 6:46pm
| |
Wave structure on the 5 min chart shows 5 part structure. However, the possible w4 overlaps with wave 1.
BUt note also that it was bouncing on the weekly 5sma.
This may not be enogh support to hold the pair from still going down to the Daily Pivot.
ooooppps. I just checked now and Daily Pivot is now @ 237.32.
Since it has opened and closed an hourly candle and possibly another one now below the new Daily Pivot, I am inclined to believe that this will still get down to 236.82 @76.8% retracement Level.
EG:
Attached Thumbnails
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
|
#1138
Nov 8, 2007 6:51pm
| |
up to finish b.
possible attempt to reach 200ema on 15min chart
then down to finish c and start with 335333 small CORAL.
EG
Attached Thumbnails
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
|
#1139
Nov 8, 2007 7:08pm
| |
maximum retrace for B otherwise, wrong count so exit if trading it .
or not enter short before that level.
EG
Attached Thumbnails 
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
|
#1140
Nov 8, 2007 7:42pm
| |
bad bad bad....
I entered 2 scalps for this wave down.
entered 1 @ FE 100.0 and another near FE 161.8 at the level I initially thought was the limit up for B.
Then when it kept going up. I was also looking at anoyher platform from a bifferent broker and it showed price going over the wave 1 end while meta quote platform did not show this overlap or exceeding wave 1 end.
So at the short pull back, I closed the 2 trades at a loss 112 pips inclusive of the 18 pip spread per trade.
what skipped my mind was the possibility of a Flat or irregular flat corrective wave. The limit of 78.6% must be for the Zigzag.
Now price has hit the 1hr 100sma and the 240ema on the 15min chart.. Let us see if this will provide resistance for the meantime.
Reminder to myself: To Stick to the MAIN TREND.
EG
Attached Images
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
|
|
|
|
[复制链接]
elliot wave analysis 
