一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Dec 31, 2007 12:15am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

watch price action. what may have been end of sub wave 1 resulted in a Pin Bar. now watching potential support levels as possible turning point to end wave 2 down and proceed with what I think should be wave 3 UP. EG Attached Thumbnails          __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS Last edited by el grande, Dec 31, 2007 12:36am

hefeiddd

Dec 31, 2007 1:04am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

Dissecting the EW Labelling further using Channelling, it looks like the bottom after all has not been in place yet. And the 222.67 may still be inplay. I am currently out of any trade now and just waiting for what I think is the right time to enter my Long trade. EG PS. I would like to remind everyone following this thread not to base their trades on my EW Counts as these are continiuosly understudy. It may give you some idea sometimes but one needs to base their trades on their own analysis of the charts. Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS Last edited by el grande, Dec 31, 2007 1:39am

#1385    Dec 31, 2007 1:17am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

more scribbled charts.... Note that a throwunder for price to reach 221.95 or 221.69 is still possible to keep the 0123 Triangulation valid as well as the EW Counts. Using Pivots, I would say that the Weekly S2 @ 221.20 may also still hold as final Support prior to going up. But this does not seem to blend well with my EW Count. One thing though about how I trade is I still keep an open mind if there are some differences between my EW Count and the other tools I use. It is either I enter with a minimum amount to risk or I wait till I get a better signal. EG Attached Thumbnails          __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1386    Dec 31, 2007 8:37am

money Multiple Usernames Member Since Jul 2007   106 Posts

eur_usd Quote: Originally Posted by adji04 bro, how about predict eur/usd with elliot for today (daily,horly,4H) because i have position with this currency.. what's sugest for this curr..buy again or stand aside?? and where's another site to predict eur/usd with elliotwave..? last..which best tools to combine with elliot.. thenkyou... Hello adji04. Here you can see my Elliott counting on eur-usd. i think that we should see some retricement in this wave 2 in3 waves. I will wait for this retricement, to look for new positions to go long. I would like to see drop down to around 1,4580- 1,4620. i hope that this helps you a little. You can also check our analyses here. But i did not updated them for today. nice trading, Grega Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

Jan 1, 2008 6:55pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

Here are my charts EG Attached Thumbnails          __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1393    Jan 1, 2008 8:08pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

I most likely need to correct myself and my chart on my EURUSD Analysis. I realized that I placed wave 2 to be a zigzag and wave 4 to be a Zigzag also which normally should not be the case. Checking wave 2 again, I think it cannot be a Zigzag but a Sideways expanding corrective wave. I cannot find a reference classifying this pattern so I will classify it as Complex. This will allow me to pursue the idea that wave 4 will be a Zigzag wave. Therefore if wave 4 is considered as a Zigzag wave, the move down from 1.4747 to 1.4581 may initially be thought of by me as a Zigzag. However when we look at the Potential relationship between what is considered as Wave C and Wave A, we will note that wave "C" is about 300% of wave "A", which I think is not within the Guideline of EW Principle. So I will much rather consider that as a wave 1 and a wave 3, where now we see wave 3 finished and wave 4 developing to most likely reach 1.4638. Then expecting wave 5 to develop as it goes down again more like a w5=w1 to give more room for the actual Zigzag Big wave 4 @ 1.4563. Once this Leg A ( 5 wave structure ) is finished, we now refer to the structure of A to lead us to expect what wave B possibly can be. In this case, since wave A is a 5 wave structure, then Wave B is expected to be a FLAT or A Triangle. a FLAT has a 335 structure while a Triangle has a 33333 structure. Then we will see this pair going down again and lower than the previous low of ( which probably would be around 1.4563 ). Okay, if I go on with this rambling, and make a sketchy forecast of the potential route of EURUSD using the Guidelines, then here goes.... Leg A finishes at 1.4563 then goes up by 50% ( @ 1.4655 ) developing a FLAT or a Triangle wave B then Falls again to finish wave C as C=100% of A (@ 1.4471) or 161.8% of A (@ 1.4357 ). Now that is how I see it with my EW Count for EURUSD. Now to go to the Technical side, to me this wave count fits better now as 4 hour stochastics is just crossing down Level 80. That to me means that Wave 4 is far from over. The Zigzag concept will most likely provide that time to allow it to get oversold and crossback Upwards of the Level 20. Thus the beginning of the actual Wave 5 UP. I would most likely be setting my Short trade @ 1.4655 now. That is if I see Price stop at around 1.4563. Better to trade the Wave C down. EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

hefeiddd

Jan 1, 2008 8:45pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

Alternative Count for EURUSD Here is a much simpler Alternative Count Note that this is on the 1 hour Chart. EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1397    Jan 1, 2008 10:18pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

USDJPY My EW Count for USDJPY. EG Attached Thumbnails       __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

Jan 2, 2008 6:38am

money Multiple Usernames Member Since Jul 2007   106 Posts

EUR/USD, USD/JPY hi EG, i saw that we are watching the same pairs. EUR/USD I think that EUR will make new highs in this qauter of the year. We must realize that we are still in very powerful bull counting. I saw that you are waitting this weave 2 to conclude. But i believe that this wave 2 already make his low.But this will be confirm when will trend break high 1,4747. This 2 wave made his low on the ideal support at previous zone of wave IV around 1,4580. This is very strong support, and from here is going up now already for 100 pips. So i believe that we are on the way to the wave 3... USD/JPY You are also watching this pair. I saw your monthly chart...This wave 4 that you are waitting it is already done in A_B_C_D_E pattern. But we must realize that there is not always ideal patterns in the market. in this case my wave B did not touch lower line. But we can see that is still very very powerfull patern to make new lows. We must also consider that pairs EUR/USD and USD/JPY should be going in differnt direcitons.

Jan 2, 2008 9:58pm

Learntocount Member Member Since Dec 2007 242 Posts

This is called a bull flag pattern.....break will be up..... Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

Jan 2, 2008 11:48pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

I just discovered that I was getting different set ups from 2 MT4 Platforms I was using which may have been confusing me as I was using meta quotes to chart my EW counts while I was using fibo-group for my technical side. some how they did not match and I just found out why I was having trouble with that running flat wave 4. meta-quote extended down way way low while fibo-group exhibited more of a better set up for a running flat corrective wave 4. Attached are the 2 charts For Better RR, I believe it is best to wait for 1.4750 as Tim has suggested. Unless a Bullish candle probably opens and closes above that downward trendline. Tim, what do you think? EG Attached Thumbnails       __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS Last edited by el grande, Jan 3, 2008 12:02am

#1415    Jan 3, 2008 12:14am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

Here is how I see EURUSD now. I now have a bias for the sub wave 4 Bullish Flag Scenario. where sub wave 3 has made a breakout of the Channel and came back into it forming a bullish flag wave 4. Waiting for a high probability profitable trade set-up for this sub wave 5 of 5. Now you may ask , why not enter at the bottom of that channel or that rightside of the channel as price bounces of off it? Wel maybe we can but we have to set a tight stop loss. But it I believe now that the 1.4750 is the best level and the least risky to trade. hhmmm... unless by the rule of wave equality..... w5=w1 when wave 3 is extended. that would make trading a breakout from that level have a higher Risk. Any one want to share their thoughts on this one? EG Attached Thumbnails       __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS Last edited by el grande, Jan 3, 2008 12:35am

Jan 3, 2008 1:53am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

Hi Tim.. Does the Breakout from the Bullish Flag also follow the Projection used on the triangle? in the attached chart, wave 4 tok almost same amount of time to finish as wave 0-3. If TP projection follows the same method as that for Triangles, then TP should be in the area of 1.4762? I have set my initial target at 1.4770 which is at Daly R2. Anyway, I will be watching my charts so will be observing the wave development and make my exit decisions accordingly. EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1421    Jan 3, 2008 2:02am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

EURUSD Update Update Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1422    Jan 3, 2008 2:56am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

Here is what keeps trading hours a bit more colorful than just seeing EW counts, patterns and channels.... Notice how the MAs spread like a Fan as it develops a wave 3. At least that is how I see it. Thanks to TheWicker for sharing his indicators for for his Trend Follower System http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=40325 EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1423    Jan 3, 2008 2:57am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

EURUSD Update Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1424    Jan 3, 2008 4:23am

money Multiple Usernames Member Since Jul 2007   106 Posts

EUR/USD And here is my view for EUR/USD. i will go long when will break trough my upper trend line. but we must stay under my lower trend line. Other pairs check here

#1425    Jan 3, 2008 4:24am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

EURUSD Update Barrier Triangle Bullish Flag over extended and Now looks like Wave 4 is forming a big Barrier Triangle. Watch out for a possible throwunder which could be a False Breakout to the Down side. Barrier triangles in this form normally are Bullish as the Textbook would say. Now it makes more good sense why it is best to wait for a breakout at 1.4750. EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

hefeiddd

Jan 3, 2008 5:21am

Learntocount Member Member Since Dec 2007 242 Posts

our flag has morphed a little but still very valid...still looking for the break up! Attached Thumbnails

Jan 3, 2008 7:59am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

a Possibility for EURUSD just toying on the idea for now. currently out of the market . exited @1.4773 Missed 9 pips of max it went up earlier. On 15min chart I see 2 pin bars and oscillators are over bought that is why I am thinking that this might just be sub wave 1 of 5 followed by what seems like an expanded FLAT. if not, then I miss the train . will look for better set ups to trade tomorrow morning. EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1432    Jan 3, 2008 8:06am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

or this could be a better possibility. Well... I am going to get some much needed sleep tonight. See you all in the morning. Good Trading to All of you. EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1433    Jan 3, 2008 8:29am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

GBPJPY I could not resist printing this out before I closed my PC Price is below Monthly, weekly and Daily Pivot. I would consider really very Bearish. However, this pair needs to retrace for a correction which I believe is happening now with the sub wave 4 of Wave 3 or C down. EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

Jan 3, 2008 8:53am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

another chart may just be in wave 4 of a 5 wave structure A EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1437    Jan 3, 2008 9:01am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

whew.... I took a peek at EURUSD.... I got out just in time then with my long trade. Now waiting for a nice set up for a new Long Trade. EG __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS Last edited by el grande, Jan 3, 2008 9:11am

#1438    Jan 3, 2008 9:15am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

Quote: Originally Posted by Learntocount here's what I mean...notice divergence on awesome oscillator...wave 5 creates divergence because it is not as strong as wave 3 Hi Tim... I thought you were going to sleep too..... Anyway, thank you for checking on my charts for EURUSD. Do you mean that the second chart I proposed is the better choice? Since I have counted 5 waves on the move up and price has not surpassed main wave 3 top at 1.4966, then this must have just beem sub wave 1 of 5 and sub wave 2 of 5 is expected to retrace sub wave 1 by 61.8% which is around 1.4511 Otherwise...... at what level do you expect price to bounce or where would you consider starting to load Long Trades? EG __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1439    Jan 3, 2008 9:28am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

wave 2 Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

hefeiddd

Jan 3, 2008 10:23am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

GBPJPY Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1445    Jan 3, 2008 10:25am

Learntocount Member Member Since Dec 2007 242 Posts

go to a 4 hour and tell me what you see........

#1446    Jan 3, 2008 10:28am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

Quote: Originally Posted by Learntocount Looks like a 4 in the making on gbp/jpy.....when in doubt, go to longer term charts and use Fibonacci and the norms of the waves...i.e. wave 4 does a 38% retrace of wave 3.......when the waves get complex, fall back on the rules...you may miss a trade or two on pairs that don't act right, the key is find one that does exactly what it is supposed to do and ride it to the barn...... Looks like a triangle in the making for the wave 4 of Leg A of the the bigger wave 4. Price has retraced wave 3 almost near 38.2% which I think makes it a high probability wave 4 . Then A long trade on the breakout or I could wait for wave 5 to end for this 5 wave structured Leg A. Then Short it for a Zigzag B wave of this wave 4. what do youthink Tim? EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1447    Jan 3, 2008 10:36am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

EURUSD Price has retraced upwards by about 50% as we anticipated. Most likely I will be looking at the FE 100.0 for the C = A Zigzag wave which incidentally falls on the 61.8% retrace quite common for wave 2s. Eyeing 1.4656 which is also near the Low of previous day @ 1.4641 EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS Last edited by el grande, Jan 3, 2008 10:42am Reason: wrong chart

#1448    Jan 3, 2008 10:40am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

Here is my GBPJPY 4 hour chart. Daily chart added EG Attached Thumbnails       __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1449    Jan 3, 2008 10:47am

Learntocount Member Member Since Dec 2007 242 Posts

I'm looking for 219ish also.....so don't sweat the small stuff.........sell when we get there and you can justify an ABC with C having 5 waves on a 1 hour chart.....take it to a new low and count your money.....

#1450    Jan 3, 2008 10:50am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

Quote: Originally Posted by Learntocount I'm looking for 219ish also.....so don't sweat the small stuff.........sell when we get there and you can justify an ABC with C having 5 waves on a 1 hour chart.....take it to a new low and count your money..... Again Thank You Tim. I will be counting waves on this wave 5 UP on GBPJPY. EG __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1451    Jan 3, 2008 11:08am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

Here is what I see on the USDJPY monthly chart EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1452    Jan 3, 2008 1:26pm

Learntocount Member Member Since Dec 2007 242 Posts

we'll see, thats my alternate.....in the a,b,c,d,e pattern you have drawn it's important to know the count rom 30 years ago on the monthly.....my preferred count is your "A" is my "a" since it was 3 waves a move down out of this pattern woud be a final wave 5...also of note....decending triangles break to the downside.........as long as the impulse waves continue down, follow them and don't worry about a monthly count....... Attached Thumbnails

#1453    Jan 3, 2008 6:29pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

Quote: Originally Posted by Learntocount we'll see, thats my alternate.....in the a,b,c,d,e pattern you have drawn it's important to know the count rom 30 years ago on the monthly.....my preferred count is your "A" is my "a" since it was 3 waves a move down out of this pattern woud be a final wave 5...also of note....decending triangles break to the downside.........as long as the impulse waves continue down, follow them and don't worry about a monthly count....... Good morning Tim.. I wake up to a different scenario than what I was looking forward to before I turned in early this morning on the EURUSD and the GBPJPY smaller Timeframe. Anyway , I will try to straighten out my bearings in a little while. As for the USDJPY, my monthly chart data as you can see lacked the data for wave 1 and has an incomplete data for wave 2. I made some assumptions before but felt I was on the right direction when I saw your chart with the complete data of wave 1. Now I see your wave 2 there is a zigzag confirming my earlier assumptions. So I would expect a Complex sideways expanding wave 4 which should be around 38.2% of wave 3. In this case I would look forward to seeing a FLAT or a triangle as per guideline set bythe book. So yes, we have 2 potential counts for this monthly wave 4. We can either have that triangle where we can consider all these legs as part of the triangle and that last leg down as already a part of the Final wave 5 on the monthly chart or still just the wave E of a triangle. Considering that as a wave E would mean that the wave A of big wave 4 is a 3 wave structure. this means that wave B should either be a FLAT or a Triangle. This is where my assumptions that we are in a wave B triangle come in as it is still within the Guideline. But you are right, we just have to follow what we see on our charts now. At least we have info on 2 possible counts on the longer tf at the back of our mind and know why both are possible. Good trading to you And everyone else . Ok... got to have some breakfast before I plunge deep in here. EG __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1454    Jan 3, 2008 6:58pm

adji04 Member Member Since Dec 2006 56 Posts

Quote: Originally Posted by el grande EURUSD Price has retraced upwards by about 50% as we anticipated. Most likely I will be looking at the FE 100.0 for the C = A Zigzag wave which incidentally falls on the 61.8% retrace quite common for wave 2s. Eyeing 1.4656 which is also near the Low of previous day @ 1.4641 EG ==== EG, at 15m chart now like triangle... Attached Images

#1455    Jan 3, 2008 7:04pm

adji04 Member Member Since Dec 2006 56 Posts

Quote: Originally Posted by adji04 ==== EG, at 15m chart now like triangle... === too small pict... EG i have 2 position buy 1.4758 and sell 1.4703...which must i closed and which must i go runing...??????? Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

Jan 3, 2008 8:00pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

1st off GBPJPY Expecting GBPJPY to come down to test the bottom at 213.59 in a Zigzag since wave A up was in 5 moves. If it breaches former low from yesterday, then we are probably back to the downtrend. If it holds, I just might trade Long on this one on the end of wave 2 of the wave c going up. EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1457    Jan 3, 2008 8:39pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

Adji04 I would rather not tell you whether to close or to hold on to any position right now. We have to take responsibility for our own trades. In as much as I would like to help you, the trade offs of holding on and biting the bullet if it goes against you is something every trader needs to learn. I have learned this the hard way usually sacrificing majority of my capital only to see price retrace to save what would have still been my capital. To cut the long story short, use proper money management. Like Tim has mentioned in one of his initial posts, we do not have to be in a trade all the time. We just have to select the best ones. Now here is the long story...... I went out of the market early this morning and went to bed and slept soundly without a trade running. I studied the charts where price would go in the next hours using EW and some other strategies then went off to bed. Now I check if it is still on course then wait and decide for the next set up to trade. Tim has shared a valuable lesson here and in his thread about trading the breakouts from the triangle and the flag. Waiting for the breakouts from this ABC or 123 patterns which if I understood it correctly does not necessarily give you the most number of pips in a given wave, but it gives you maybe less pips but high probability set ups that you can maximize using your capital even for just a few pips. A parallel strategy is that of Linuxtroll's Rainbow which uses 5second to 1min and 5min charts just to scalp a few pips at least but with more lots. But he now sells the ebook for that strategy. A free and actually workable and now free Strategy is the one from TheWicker with his Trend Follower Strategy. But trading the breakouts from the triangles and the flags is probably simpler than the other strategies I mentioned. The only thing I can suggest to you now is for you to probably go back to demo or reduce your number of live trades PLUS use the least amount of your capital to trade possible while doing LIVE trades. Then maybe you can start learning to hedge. But hedging is more for the pros. If I as an amateur does that, I have higher risks of wiping out my account. I think one only hedges when they trade heavy. Now enough of my ramblings..... I hope I helped to enlighten you... Sorry if that went too long. EG __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1458    Jan 3, 2008 8:47pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

Next the EURUSD Price has gone up while I slept... retracing towards 76.4% of wave A of what I think is a wave 2 down. I will have to adjust my targets for the Zigzag wave down. I think the sub wave c down is having a leading diagonal wave 1 now and likely doing wave 2 before plunging for wave 3 and end wave 5 down @ 1.4679 which is 50% retrace of main wave 1 from 1.4580 to 1.4780 or if extended would then be tillFE 161.8 @ 1.4629 which is also the 76.4% of the main wave 1.Then I would look for new Long trades at this levels. EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1459    Jan 3, 2008 8:59pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

Quote: Originally Posted by adji04 ==== EG, at 15m chart now like triangle... Note that Triangles in Elliott Wave Principles are found in Wave 1 or A - Leading Diagonal Triangle ===This is followed by a retrace after a breakout to the opposite direction Wave 5 or C - Ending Diagonal Triangle === Followed by an opposite Price direction Wave 4 or also B - As Contracting, Expanding or as a Barrier Triangle ==== Followed by a continuation of the main trend Carefull though of breakouts which are actually Throwovers or in some throwunders. Not all breakouts from Triangle Patterns indicate price direction of the Breakout continuation. EG PS. oooooopppps I missed to include Wave B __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS Last edited by el grande, Jan 3, 2008 9:18pm

#1460    Jan 3, 2008 9:31pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

Here's the wave 2 of the USDJPY. Thank you Tim I guess some sleep helped clear up my Brain and eyes. EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1461    Jan 3, 2008 9:54pm

adji04 Member Member Since Dec 2006 56 Posts

we says thanks for u advising... thank's , i will more learn and patience.... now maybe i will cutt loss for better my live acc (-57pis)... and stay away for a while till nonfarm employment launched...

#1462    Jan 3, 2008 11:01pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

Quote: Originally Posted by adji04 we says thanks for u advising... thank's , i will more learn and patience.... now maybe i will cutt loss for better my live acc (-57pis)... and stay away for a while till nonfarm employment launched... Good idea. I myself am on the sidelines watching now and will probably get in after the news. Enough of the stress I have been thru for more than 1 year now trading live and studying at the same time. I will take Tim's advise to choose the best set -up only even if it means trading less frequently. EG __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1463    Jan 3, 2008 11:06pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

Here is my EURJPY count. I am not so sure that wave 5 of wave 1 has finished already nor wave 4 going up as if it is wave 4 going up now on the 30 min chart, then it has only retraced up by approximately 25%. I would be looking for around 38.2% towards 162.3, 50% @ 163 and 163.90 for 61.8% Depends on how the waves develop EG Attached Thumbnails          __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1464    Jan 3, 2008 11:32pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

EURUSD Possible direction Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1465    Jan 4, 2008 12:56am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

Hi Tim. Would a breakout from that downward trendline to the UPSide be the wave 3 of the wave C up? EG ----- Sorry . my bad. I replied to ask without reading the text fully. sorry again I Checked the chart again and drew the fibs. So that is where we also get the 219 Projection for our TP. Thanks. I am learning something new from you everyday. Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

hefeiddd

Jan 7, 2008 1:27am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

AUDUSD Watching AUDUSD and NZDUSD for a possible Bear trend for Short to Medium tern trades. EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1479    Jan 7, 2008 1:38am

Learntocount Member Member Since Dec 2007 242 Posts

good calls...I'm already short the NZL and I've been waiting all day for 8750 on the aussie.......

#1480    Jan 7, 2008 2:17am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

Quote: Originally Posted by Learntocount good calls...I'm already short the NZL and I've been waiting all day for 8750 on the aussie....... Too bad... am already late for the NZD party. Unless I get a chance with this potential retrace on the 5min/15min chart which will allow me to ride till 0.7500 As for Eurusd, I am also watching for a retrace up for what could be a wave c of wave 4. I already have a small position for this and will get out when it finishes 5 waves up on the 5min or 15min chart __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS Last edited by el grande, Jan 7, 2008 2:32am

#1481    Jan 7, 2008 3:32am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

NZDUSD This is how I see NZDUSD's movement Attached Thumbnails                      __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1482    Jan 7, 2008 3:47am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

NZDUSD 4hour NZDUSD view Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1483    Jan 7, 2008 4:49am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

AUDUSD AUDUSD Daily and Monthly Pivot @ 0.8745 Weekly Pivot @ 0.8753 An almost tripple top at the 15 min chart is observed. The way I look at this, if price breaks thru the 3 pivots.... most likely this pair will turn Bullish in the next 2-3 days. Revising my wave count. Looks like pair is about to start wave 5 of wave 3 down. EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1484    Jan 7, 2008 5:38am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

skippping AUDUSD and NZDUSD now as I am stuck with my Long EURUSD. Unless EURUSD on the 15 min chart goes up for a Zigzag or Flat Wave 2, then I think I can unload my long eurusd and trade the wave 3 down on the 15min chart. EG 2057 Asia : Update: looks like I will be able to get out of my Long trade soon with what looks like a wave 2 up. __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS Last edited by el grande, Jan 7, 2008 7:50am

#1485    Jan 7, 2008 8:30am

money Multiple Usernames Member Since Jul 2007   106 Posts

EUR/USD nice moves on EURO yes- to new highs.................i hope what you think EG, where you will get out. I have in my mind around 1,4744. And then new entry after wave 4, not sure yet....

hefeiddd

Jan 7, 2008 11:48am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

EURUSD this is how I see EURUSD now Will be counting 5 waves up for sub wave C of Wave 2. Potential resistance again at the weekly pivot @ 1.4737 EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1488    Jan 7, 2008 12:09pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

Alternate Structure on the wave 2 count of EURUSD attached is an alternate wave structure for EURUSD it could be a wave 2 expanded FLAT Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1489    Jan 7, 2008 12:29pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

GBPUSD A Potential Scenario on the GBPUSD similar to what Possibly can be observed with EURUSD. Triangulated structures have been observed in some EW set-ups. I present this just for the record of recognizing the potential set up. At times, successive triangulated structures are found first on a lower time frame and afterwhich it plays out will then proceed to develop the same set - up on the next higher time frame. So let us watch if this GBPUSD plays this out and also the EURUSD. EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1490    Jan 7, 2008 12:38pm

adji04 Member Member Since Dec 2006 56 Posts

i'm stiil prefer eur/usd alt-2.as long as 4750 didn't break prefer sold. refered to chart alt-2, i ask you,..EG,referred basic theory fibo/elliot it's need to retrace "lower below 4650-4630 before another leg up (target 1.5)?????? thx,

#1491    Jan 7, 2008 12:51pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

Leading Diagonal 1 or Ending Diagonal 5 for the GBPUSD Proposed triangulated structure. EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1492    Jan 7, 2008 1:01pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

Quote: Originally Posted by adji04 i'm stiil prefer eur/usd alt-2.as long as 4750 didn't break prefer sold. refered to chart alt-2, i ask you,..EG,referred basic theory fibo/elliot it's need to retrace "lower below 4650-4630 before another leg up (target 1.5)?????? thx, This alternative wave count and proposed structure may play out what you see on EURUSD. I have exited my Long EURUSD at BE. Waiting for a better set up for a short or a Long Trade. I have a bias to wait for a Long trade based on this last potential set up under the intertwining of EW and Triangulation. EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS Last edited by el grande, Jan 7, 2008 1:16pm

#1493    Jan 7, 2008 1:15pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

Triangulating SR Trendlines hhhhmmmmmm....... still watching EURUSD Note that Blue wave 4 retraced almost 50% of wave 3 And if we consider the next wave as the 5th wave down, then based on the current structure, we can see that the potential wave 4 Magenta has retraced wave 3 magenta by 38.2%. This is getting closer to what has been proposed. It is also likely that price does not touch the green downward support trendline. And it may also overshoot or make an underthrow. Best is to watch and count the waves. EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1494    Jan 7, 2008 1:33pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

I moved the first point for the downward support trendline and have included the fib extention for the potential wave 5 magenta to show possible meeting at the support trendline Next is the question on whether proposed bottom at 1.4635 approx. is just end of wave 1 of wave C down or the end of wave C down already and that the potential bounce off that trendline will bring price to toward 1.5000 EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1495    Jan 7, 2008 2:21pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

AUDUSD AUDUSD Attached Thumbnails       __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1496    Jan 7, 2008 3:31pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

NZDUSD Potential set-up for the week Potential set up for the week for NZDUSD. It looks like a wave 2 or a wave 3 of a wave C Up of a bigger a wave 2 UP is developing on the NZDUSD on the 15min chart. An upward channel has been formed. EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1497    Jan 7, 2008 4:33pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

AUDUSD Possible FLAT corrective wave 4 on AUDUSD Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1498    Jan 7, 2008 7:05pm

adji04 Member Member Since Dec 2006 56 Posts

Quote: Originally Posted by el grande I moved the first point for the downward support trendline and have included the fib extention for the potential wave 5 magenta to show possible meeting at the support trendline Next is the question on whether proposed bottom at 1.4635 approx. is just end of wave 1 of wave C down or the end of wave C down already and that the potential bounce off that trendline will bring price to toward 1.5000 EG === Morning, EG... refer to alt-c ..if today price close below 4687-4700 start counting w.4 to w.5 down. with target down 4630.. and "if this trenddown occured"and stop at 4630(w.2)..will be trigered next (w.3 or w.5) if 4750 broken... the question is...will be ECB raise interest???? i think none,for a while/keep rates unchange...(maybe yes..or maybe not ) thanks EG

#1499    Jan 7, 2008 7:14pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

NZDUSD Looking to finish wave 5 of wave C inside Bigger wave 2 UP. Otherwise, 1st sign of down trend resumption is overlap of wave 4 with wave 1 Followed by breakout to the downside of the channel EG ...... had to replace charts . most likely not wave iv but wave iii.2 Attached Thumbnails       __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

hefeiddd

Jan 7, 2008 7:50pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

AUDUSD 4h AUDUSD 4h Breakout to the UPSIDE will signal resumption of wave 3 UP A breakout to the DOWNSIDE will most likely develop a Zigzag wave 2 EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1502    Jan 7, 2008 9:03pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

AUDUSD AUDUSD 1hr Price has breeched monthly pivot @ 0.8744 and encountered resistance at the weekly Pivot @ 0.8755 The way I look at it, If price continues to encounter resistance at the Weekly Pivot level, then it would lead to a formation of a triangle wave B after a 5 wave Leg A Afterwhich Leg C down will complete a Zigzag for wave 2 Down. Then the BIG Wave 3 up continues. Fibonacci Projections are: Wave 3 @ 0.9070 - 0.9183 Wave 5 @ 0.9367 - 0.9480 with maximum @ 0.9850 I did not believe last 2006 October when I started Trading live that from 0.7500 price would go to 0.8800 at that time I thought it was far fetched. Then it took 10 months for price to achieve that level. what I did not note well was the retracements. But should this pan out, best level to buy is at end of wave 2 1st SL at origin of wave 1 once wave 4 is achieved, move SL to end of wave 2 then when price for wave 5 exceeds end of wave 3 move SL to end of wave 4. I must be dreaming...... somebody wake me up..... EG Attached Thumbnails       __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1503    Jan 7, 2008 9:20pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

EURUSD Daily replacing initial chart for more details. Ok. I had my doubts on the continued downtrend based on my wave count on eurusd. However when I saw the Price action on the daily a few minutes ago, I must admit that EURUSD looks more like heading down for a bigger correction. 1.4505 falls @ the 61.8% retracement for wave 2 Pin bar and the bearish engulfing candle indicate bearish bias for this pair. So now I would be looking for a nice entry for my short trade. EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS Last edited by el grande, Jan 7, 2008 9:31pm

#1504    Jan 8, 2008 6:54pm

adji04 Member Member Since Dec 2006 56 Posts

Quote: Originally Posted by el grande replacing initial chart for more details. Ok. I had my doubts on the continued downtrend based on my wave count on eurusd. However when I saw the Price action on the daily a few minutes ago, I must admit that EURUSD looks more like heading down for a bigger correction. 1.4505 falls @ the 61.8% retracement for wave 2 Pin bar and the bearish engulfing candle indicate bearish bias for this pair. So now I would be looking for a nice entry for my short trade. EG === my direction same as U. my Sl stand at 4735/4750/4825.Eu need correction down bef Another Leg Up.. correct me if i wrong,thanks EG.. Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

Notice too that price is right below 100 sma on the 15min chart and right above the daily pivot @ 1.4709

4hour stochs is going up and has crossed 50 level.

Price is stil inside the Price Range of yesterday. I am looking out for a breakout of this range too.Attached Thumbnails   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


Last edited by el grande, Jan 8, 2008 11:52pm

#1506    Jan 9, 2008 12:08am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

or we can see it this way too... as a symmetricasl triangle with the 33333 structure having a throwover on the wave e of wave 2 But if price goes above the 100sma on the 15min chart and then goes higher than the following: weekly pivot @ 1.4737 yesterdays' high @ 1.4740 Daily R2 @ 1.4747 Then I might just have more bias for the upside for this pair. EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1507    Jan 9, 2008 12:18am

Learntocount Member Member Since Dec 2007 242 Posts

Can I throw in my two cents.......I have a entry sell at 4695......and it doesn't matter what happens till it gets hit....go trade a pair you can read some structure and jump on a impulse wave......trying to count waves like this will make you old and in the end, you'll probably be wrong just like I always was when I tried counting abcxyzabcxabcde.......draw a line at the top of the correction and at the bottom...odds are it is going to be a continuation wave of the down move off 150ish...wait for it and make pips off impulse waves......now, back to counting........

#1508    Jan 9, 2008 12:23am

adji04 Member Member Since Dec 2006 56 Posts

Quote: Originally Posted by el grande or we can see it this way too... as a symmetricasl triangle with the 33333 structure having a throwover on the wave e of wave 2 But if price goes above the 100sma on the 15min chart and then goes higher than the following: weekly pivot @ 1.4737 yesterdays' high @ 1.4740 Daily R2 @ 1.4747 Then I might just have more bias for the upside for this pair. EG === clear,...today i'm hedging too B 4720 SL 4695 TP 4760.. thx for "warning" sign....

#1509    Jan 9, 2008 12:31am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

wave 2 limits Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1510    Jan 9, 2008 12:52am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

Quote: Originally Posted by Learntocount Can I throw in my two cents.......I have a entry sell at 4695......and it doesn't matter what happens till it gets hit....go trade a pair you can read some structure and jump on a impulse wave......trying to count waves like this will make you old and in the end, you'll probably be wrong just like I always was when I tried counting abcxyzabcxabcde.......draw a line at the top of the correction and at the bottom...odds are it is going to be a continuation wave of the down move off 150ish...wait for it and make pips off impulse waves......now, back to counting........ Thank you Tim. It is true trying to count waves on the lower time frames is starting to wear me down. I am actually already starting to scale out of my counting. I used to count down to the 1mim chart and doing that on the GBPJPY alone. But my reasons then was to get more adept at counting by practicing more often. That was focus on just 1 pair so I can get to know it better while practicing counting on all tfs plus its volatiltiy. It sure was a rough bumpy ride. But I think I got a load of practice from that. Not saying I had enough coz I still need more. I am scaling out to the 5min and the 15min these days coz my MM is not as relaxing as that of others maybe. I guess I am feeling some pressure to get to the turns sooner than later to avoid any loss. But YES, I will keep trying to scale out some more like the 1hour and 4hour next time. And lower TFs only for timing the entries. hhhhmmmmmm it may still sound the same for others... but in truth it is not. Basing trades on the higher TF like 1hr or the 4hr gives traders less signals therefore less trades to monitor compared to getting signals on the 15min and less charts. Anyway, I have set my SL at 38 pips total. so if it goes down, I get to profit on the way down. But I will hold on to my Long trades and suffer the drawdown as it completes the Corrective wave. Then allow it to recover while I get in again at the bottom for another long trade after the correction. I am doing this because I believe that the longer term wave count is still bullish. Otherwise I would have to get out of my Long trade now. EG __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1511    Jan 9, 2008 1:03am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

Quote: Originally Posted by adji04 === clear,...today i'm hedging too B 4720 SL 4695 TP 4760.. thx for "warning" sign.... Hey adji04 I think you mis understood why I brought up those scenarios and why I am trading this way. I was not warning anyone that the price is going up. I just presented scenarios I thought were possible based on my wave counts which are quite numerous. I am not saying I know how to hedge and I sure hope you do not just base your entries on my wave counts. You have to have a reason why you are hedging and must really be able to accept your SL incase it gets hit. ( I am not saying you do not have a good reason for what you just did) Just cautioning you here. EG __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1512    Jan 9, 2008 1:24am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

EURUSD Price went up to 1.4733 breeching Daily R2 @ 1.4732 Weekly Pivot @ 1.4737 is still close by. It could still try and take that out. next hurdle is yesterdays high @ 1.4740 then Daily R2 @ 1.4747 followed by 1.4770 which is Daily R3 and Murrey Math Major Support and Resistance Level and 50% of yesterdays Range. Price is currently between the weekly pivot @ 1.4737 and the Daily Pivot @ 1.4709. But already broke out to the upside of the downward channel on the 1hr chart. 15min chart shows an upward channel for now. EG __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1513    Jan 9, 2008 3:22am

adji04 Member Member Since Dec 2006 56 Posts

Quote: Originally Posted by el grande Price went up to 1.4733 breeching Daily R2 @ 1.4732 Weekly Pivot @ 1.4737 is still close by. It could still try and take that out. next hurdle is yesterdays high @ 1.4740 then Daily R2 @ 1.4747 followed by 1.4770 which is Daily R3 and Murrey Math Major Support and Resistance Level and 50% of yesterdays Range. Price is currently between the weekly pivot @ 1.4737 and the Daily Pivot @ 1.4709. But already broke out to the upside of the downward channel on the 1hr chart. 15min chart shows an upward channel for now. EG ==== EG, luckyly, i closed buy position manually in minutes bef jump down occurred (-6pips).. with this current position still favor down targets 4658.. EG, i still refered U suggestion...thx

#1514    Jan 9, 2008 6:43am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

GBPUSD Here is a view on the 4 hour chart of GBPUSD. I would love to get more of this set ups. Bullish Harmonic Patterns already present on the 15min 30min 60min 1440min Daily 5min is potentially playing out a wave 4 up of 240min EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1515    Jan 9, 2008 7:15am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

GBPUSD Alternative scenario move from 1.9652 going down now could be the last wave 5 of the sub wave 5 of what seems to be a near ending diagonal triangle. The ending diagonal triangle does not fit that well into the structure. just nearly. so be careful. EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

hefeiddd

Jan 9, 2008 9:19am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

EURUSD EURUSD Attached Thumbnails          __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1517    Jan 9, 2008 10:24am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

EURUSD EURUSD Have managed to to reduce potential net loss to -19 by exiting a short trade then entering at a slightly higher level EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1518    Jan 9, 2008 2:01pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

GBPUSD GBPUSD Heads up for me Price has breached FE 161.8 of A not so much . But the fact that it has breached that level puts a doubt on whether wave C has ended Or pair is currently developing the wave 3 down. But looking at the 15min chart, I see another ending diagonal triangle. Could this be a case of "An ending diagonal wave 5 to end an ending diagonal wave 5 of a higher degree with a throwover to finish off a higher degree wave C"? EG Attached Thumbnails       __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

hefeiddd

Jan 9, 2008 4:41pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

GBPUSD Triangles abound Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1521    Jan 9, 2008 7:38pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

EURUSD EURUSD Adjusted / Revised my wave count on EURUSD 15min TF EG update pinbar followed by what could be a bearish candle this may not align with my wave count if that pin bar indicates a reversal now. Wave 2 normally retraces beteween 50-61.8% up to 100% of wave 1. Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS Last edited by el grande, Jan 9, 2008 7:55pm

#1522    Jan 9, 2008 7:54pm

adji04 Member Member Since Dec 2006 56 Posts

Quote: Originally Posted by el grande EURUSD Adjusted / Revised my wave count on EURUSD 15min TF EG ====== step by step i understand how elliotwave works.... thx EG

#1523    Jan 9, 2008 8:13pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

Quote: Originally Posted by adji04 ====== step by step i understand how elliotwave works.... thx EG Good for you adji04... For EURUSD, it is also likely that the fist Zigzag UP on the 15min chart is just the wave A of a more complex wave 2 which would then develop further and reach 50-61.8% or more retracement required. EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1524    Jan 9, 2008 8:44pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

GBPUSD GBPUSD Potential Scenario Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1525    Jan 9, 2008 8:49pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

EURUSD Tracking EURUSD Route need to unload my long trade from 1.4718 @ BE or minimal LOSS EG replaced chart to correct error on "v" position to sit beside "1" EURUSD Progress....1107 HRS Attached Thumbnails       __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS Last edited by el grande, Jan 9, 2008 10:01pm

hefeiddd

Jan 9, 2008 10:09pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

EURUSD jive Notice the RED Box on the chart: This is where I am looking at EURUSD potentially reversing 50% retrace of wave 1 @ 1.4690 ( Red FIB Retracement Tool ) FE 161.8 Projection of Wave C based on relationship with wave A @ 1.4696 ( Green FIB Extention Tool ) FE 61.8 Projection if a complex zigzagA + flatB + impulse C (Blue FIB Extention Tool ) Also within range where edge of channel is found for Guideline on channeling. EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1527    Jan 9, 2008 10:23pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

GBPUSD wave 4 Triangle Triangle expected to finish on the 15min Chart of GBPUSD Triangle is wave 4 followed by wave 5 to potentially end wave 3 of Bigger wave 5 EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1528    Jan 9, 2008 11:23pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

GBPUSD wave 5 of wave 3 A triple Top has formed which completes the Triangle for wave 4. Price now DIPS for wave 5 of wave 3 down to 1.9522 To be followed by a Bounce for the bigger wave 4 towards : FIB Retracement Levels: 23.6% @ 1.9594 38.2% @ 1.9639 50% @ 1.9675 61.8% @ 1.9711 1.9633 38.2% into the previous day's Range from below 1.9657 50% of previous Day's Range 1.9682 61.8% of previous day's range 1.9740 Daily Pivot Strong Resistance Level 1.9825 weekly Pivot **** Sorry about the delay. I had to re type the whole text because I accidentally pressed the refresh button. EG Attached Thumbnails       __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1529    Jan 10, 2008 12:06am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

GBPUSD scalped during the US session to earn 9 pips earlier had a Long GBPUSD trade. exited for -36pips then traded the wave 5 after the triangle and exited for 20 pips over all, have loss of only 7 pips on this pair *** did not wait for the bounce off 1.9522 EURUSD Exited half position of last nights long trade at equivalent to -16pips Entered Short trade @ 1.4685 which looked like the end of an ENDING Diagonal Wave C of this corrective wave. overall on EURUSD +59pips -16pips -58pips (on 3 opposite trades :-19 long: -39 short) It is still very possible for EURUSD to reach my RED BOX Target where a lot of projection levels converge and still nake a biger or longer ending Diagonal wave C. I may just exit the last Longtrade at that level. Then we start with the Longer Wave 3 Down.... hhhmmmm sometimes I get confused as I am doing GBPUSD Counts too. So if you notice me off track, kindly give me a nudge... EG __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1530    Jan 10, 2008 1:03am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

EURUSD 1.4690 Achieved by EURUSD Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

hefeiddd

Jan 10, 2008 2:10am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

EURUSD Development EURUSD Development EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1532    Jan 10, 2008 2:21am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

Exited trade for 16 out of 24 pips total counted in 2 positions used as standard for trade size. Actual is 8 out of 12 pips per position x 2 exited because I counted 5 impulse waves already which signals a retracement. waiting for new entry to sell again EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1533    Jan 10, 2008 2:26am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

Timing it on the 1minute chart Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1534    Jan 10, 2008 2:47am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

Further development on teh 1min chart for EURUSD EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

hefeiddd

Jan 10, 2008 3:48am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

more 1min charts on EURUSD Attached Thumbnails       __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1540    Jan 10, 2008 3:51am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

Quote: Originally Posted by adji04 EG. still favor dowside with target 1.4530...correct??? because i still keep sold EU with SL 4715,4750,last 4775 Yes adji04 We are now supposed to be in a Downtrend. Downward direction Wave C.c.5.5.3.3 if I am not mistaken EG __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1541    Jan 10, 2008 3:58am

adji04 Member Member Since Dec 2006 56 Posts

Quote: Originally Posted by el grande Yes adji04 We are now supposed to be in a Downtrend. Downward direction Wave C.c.5.5.3.3 if I am not mistaken EG == Thank's, EG we're same direction... are U graduated from elliotwave university...???? whatever U're nice tutor... Thx,EG and for all FF

#1542    Jan 10, 2008 4:45am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

5min chart update on EURUSD It could be that an Expanded Flat or Irregular FLAT has just developed for wave 2 Note that EW Counting on these lower timeframes are more for exercise in counting waves. It may not necessarily be beneficial in real time trading. There could be simpler ways to scalp trades. The effort exerted on these smaller timeframes should pay off sooner or later to allow us ease in counting waves in higher timeframes where we should really be trading from. Learning EW takes a lot of time and Practice with dedication. Need I say PASSION too required. Otherwise, it willl be very difficult to understand. But a lot of practice and chart viewing and labelling hours are also needed. EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1543    Jan 10, 2008 5:57am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

IS it just me or does anybody else see this on the EURUSD It is like every where I turn, I see triangles or what seem like triangles forming. Here is what could be an ending diagonal wave C on the EURUSD Watch it bounce or BREAKOUT to the downside.... EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS Last edited by el grande, Jan 10, 2008 6:09am

#1544    Jan 10, 2008 6:31am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

Call me chicken if you want, But I bailed out on my 2 short trades that were last placed for combined profit of 13 pips. Actually a second batch from today's top. But, I am getting mixed signals on my EW Counts and with the News coming around, I would rather come out with my combined pips of 13 and the 16 earlier. Leaving another 2 trades running in opposite direction still. for a ratio of (1 Short and 0.5 Long ) net Loss if closed simultaeniously is -41 pips. Update: I just realized It could also be a Leading Diagonal Wave 1 which means it can break out to the UPSIDE to retrace wave 1 for wave 2 not to exceed not to exceed 1.4823 then it will Fall for the Wave 3. Should it exceed 1.4823, then The Bull RUN most likely has Begun EG __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS Last edited by el grande, Jan 10, 2008 7:02am

#1545    Jan 10, 2008 7:16am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

I probably got this now... Looks more like a LEADING Diagonal Wave 1 as structure looks like a 53535. 53535 Wave 1 or wave A 33333 Wave 4 or wave X or wave B So if this is Leading Diagonal wave 1 then expect an upward move for the retracement for wave 2 around 61.8% @ 1.4750 or higher before it comes down again. Most likely safer to enter a SHORT trade after sub wave 2 of the wave 3 down. Otherwise a Long trade at the breakout above 1.4823 EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

hefeiddd

Jan 10, 2008 8:20am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

Still a possibility as if price goes higher than 1.4700 on EURUSD EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1548    Jan 10, 2008 8:37am

adji04 Member Member Since Dec 2006 56 Posts

with reffered last EU chart myself take long after 4715 break target TP 4750. today my sold position already closed (hit target-4730). another scenario,i willtake sold if 4670 Didn't break with target 4500 and if 4700 break i will take buy target 4750... thx,EG...

#1549    Jan 10, 2008 10:13am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

adjusted Magenta trendlines to FIT the Leading Diagonal Wave 1 which abruptly completed with the news. Now challenging the 61.8% retracement level for wave 2. EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1550    Jan 10, 2008 10:15am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

Quote: Originally Posted by adji04 with reffered last EU chart myself take long after 4715 break target TP 4750. today my sold position already closed (hit target-4730). another scenario,i willtake sold if 4670 Didn't break with target 4500 and if 4700 break i will take buy target 4750... thx,EG... Looks like your Long Trades went well for you my friend. EG __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1551    Jan 10, 2008 2:32pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

EURUSD This price movement going up seems to me shows bias for EURUSD to be back on the BULL Trend. I can not consider this as a corrective wave because Maximum C can be is 1.618 of A. This is already more than 2.618 of A. SO below FE 161.8 can be considered as ABC corrective wave. but if wave supposed to be "C" is more than FE 161.8, then this should be considered as wave 3 already and not wave C. I would think that this is now part of a 12345 set of Impulse Waves and most likely we have just seen the top of wave 3 @ 1.4813 and should be followed by at least a 23.6% retracement though normally by 38.2% for a wave 4. On the argument that this could be a triangle 4th wave, structure needs to be 33333. that means 5 Zigzags in the triangle. I would say that considering this wave 4 as a triangle opens up a wider range for price to move as we could have a contracting triangle and even an expanding triangle. and a barrier triangle which would have different price leveles as limits. Most likely, using the guide for diffrentiating an abc from a 12345 impulse wave would come very handy in trading the waves this time. EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1552    Jan 10, 2008 2:51pm

Beartrade Most Truth is rather dogmatic... Member Since Dec 2007   72 Posts

a question Hi EG Its been REALLY long time since ive done any work with EWT, but i have a question. As far as the wave relationships, shouldnt have wave one been much shorter? Its quite a bit shorter than wave 3 as you presented, so are we expecting a really short 5th? Just trying to brush up Thanks for the great thread Lawrence a.k.a. The Bear

#1553    Jan 10, 2008 5:44pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

Quote: Originally Posted by Beartrade Hi EG Its been REALLY long time since ive done any work with EWT, but i have a question. As far as the wave relationships, shouldnt have wave one been much shorter? Its quite a bit shorter than wave 3 as you presented, so are we expecting a really short 5th? Just trying to brush up Thanks for the great thread Lawrence a.k.a. The Bear Hello Lawrence.... Which chart are you refering to and what post number is it in? Anyway, as far as I know, among waves 1 3 and 5 the rule is that wave 3 cannot be the shortest. Relationships can be illustrated as below : w3 > w1 > w5 w3 > w1 = w5 w1 > w3 > w5 w5 > w3 > w1 But suppose to be never as below. But I think there was an exception. Let me just look for that because it just might be possible in a triangle with a throwover or throwunder. just not that sure now. Will get back to you a little later. Thank you for asking the question. Now I must find out and be sure.... w5 > w1 > w3 w1 > w5 > w3 EG __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS Last edited by el grande, Jan 10, 2008 6:01pm

#1554    Jan 10, 2008 5:56pm

Beartrade Most Truth is rather dogmatic... Member Since Dec 2007   72 Posts

Post $1551 I was referring to the possible count starting at about 8:00cst this morning. wave 1 1.4638 to 1.4747 wave 2 1.4747 to 1.4722 wave 3 1.4722 to 1.4787 and then we have the question of waves 4 and 5... It really looks like a failed 5th to me, i know that is rare in the major pairs, but most of this today was emotion driven, imo... and the run just ran out of steam. Like i said, im just trying to dust off my ewt regards Bear

#1555    Jan 10, 2008 5:58pm

Beartrade Most Truth is rather dogmatic... Member Since Dec 2007   72 Posts

forgot to finish my post... lol and, the 5th wave failure, if i remember correctly, would match up with the rest of this unusual wave count, large first wave, moderate third, tiny or failed fifth. Just food for thought Thanks again

#1556    Jan 10, 2008 6:13pm

4x_Trader Risk Taker Member Since Dec 2006   615 Posts

Nice inputs kabayan El Grande keep it up tol!

#1557    Jan 10, 2008 7:04pm

adji04 Member Member Since Dec 2006 56 Posts

wave 4 or wave 5.. myself pivot stay 4825.if 4825 broken, take buy target 4860 and if 4825 failed take sold taget 4750... EG,last night after hit target 1.4750..i take another sold position with SL 4775..after a minutes market didn't respon to retrace down and my ISP lost connection too.. in a last minute, i closed position (-14), and today very surprise to me that EU going up 4825.. Thx, EG

#1558    Jan 10, 2008 7:21pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

2 scenarios for me on EURUSD Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1559    Jan 10, 2008 7:42pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

Quote: Originally Posted by Beartrade I was referring to the possible count starting at about 8:00cst this morning. wave 1 1.4638 to 1.4747 wave 2 1.4747 to 1.4722 wave 3 1.4722 to 1.4787 and then we have the question of waves 4 and 5... It really looks like a failed 5th to me, i know that is rare in the major pairs, but most of this today was emotion driven, imo... and the run just ran out of steam. Like i said, im just trying to dust off my ewt regards Bear Bear... This was how I saw it... Now in the chart previous to this post, my thought s are if it goes higher than 1.4813 then the triangle is a wave 4 and going up is wave 5. But if it breaks out to the down side and goes lower than 1.4785, I would be inclined to believe that yes we had a failed wave 5 there and no triangle wave 4. EG okay I think I have to correct myself here as this breakdown may not just be a bear trend resumption but a wave 4 retracement down to 23.6 or to 38.2 %. Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

hefeiddd

Jan 10, 2008 9:07pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

Ok .... here goes EURUSD Chart First 3 wave sare classified as A or 1 ; B or 2 then C or 3 -if 2nd point exceeds origin of first point, then we rule out wave 1 and 2 as wave 2 never goes beyond origin of wave 1 -if 3rd point exceeds 1.618 of A, then we rule out wave C Looking at the chart again and checking the price legs, we see 3rd point exceeding 1.618 of A. Therefore, to me price is in a a set of impulsive waves 12345 and currently developing a wave 4. Now why wave 4 still... wave 4 is related to overall time it takes from w0 to w3 and is normaly expanding correctively sideways. Could be 23.6% retrace if trend very strong or normally 38.2 - 50% normally but can be till 61.8% if more than 61.8% retracement of wave 3 occurrs, a failed 5th or truncated 5th follows So first , time wise I think it is still in a 4th. so no failed 5th yet to my mind. Structurally, looks more like it is making an expanded corrective FLAT which more likely will have a wave C = 1.618 of A. note ticked levels Another thing about the failed 5th possibility is that, if we look at the internal structure of that leg, it does not look like a 5 wave impulse but a 3 wave structed wave. so it must be a wave B. Hoping I covered the whole ground to narrow down probability of identifying the waves here. ooopppps. more to add: if price is in a wave 4 of a wave 3 , then it should be followed by a wave 5 of same degree. w1 of 3 looks extended and is longer than w3 of 3. so wave 5 of 3 must be shorter than wave 3 of 3. this should then be followed by a retracement of the wave 3 to get the wave 4. ( It would look like 2nd guessing the markets to some ) However, since we have the rules of EWT, why not try to apply them with its full might and force it at least gives you a probable scenario. ( it can still have turn out differently. but at least you have 1 scene where you have an ideal scenario based on applying the EW rules. EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS Last edited by el grande, Jan 10, 2008 9:34pm

#1562    Jan 10, 2008 9:23pm

Learntocount Member Member Since Dec 2007 242 Posts

eg, Here's my take from the all time high under 150......abc down...a=c........ wave 1 up...wave two did not retrace as far as we thought...we were looking for another day or two of dollar strength for a deeper retrace, but we did get 38.2% which is the yellow line....now wave 3.......alternate count shows well on the 1 day but if you call the first abc down as an A then our B here will make the pattern an irregular flat as it goes above 150......price action will clarify....either option is up and buy dips.........BTW our initial drop is just past the 23.6% fibo for our wave 3 that took us to just under 150...that amount of retrace is acceptable during strong trends...which we have.....and that is why it does leave the door open for the alternate count to eventually do 38%........ Attached Thumbnails

#1563    Jan 10, 2008 9:55pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

Additional assumptions since wave 3 shorter than wave 1, then wave 5 must be shorter than wave 3. Taking a fib retracement tool to measure wave 3 size then moving fib tool to possible shortest end of wave 4 of 3, for possible maximum of wave 5 of 3, we get 1.4872 as target before it retraces wave 3 of higher degree for the wave 4 which should be in the range of 1.4819 down to 1.4756 before shooting b4 rallying for the wave 5 towards 150 or higher. EG Attached Thumbnails    __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

Jan 13, 2008 3:16am

FxMt Member Member Since Aug 2007 55 Posts

GBPJPY count Hi EG & others, what do you think about GBPJPY? This is my count, I think we are currently finishing wC3 in a subwave (5)3, target the area 210,6/209,5 before we head for corrective C4 up ? What bothers me is that this (5)3 is unclear to me but I think we are not finished with it and C3 until 210/209 -ish. EDIT: error in count, we are in C(3)53v, right ? Attached Thumbnails          Last edited by FxMt, Jan 13, 2008 4:43am

hefeiddd

Jan 13, 2008 4:45am

FxMt Member Member Since Aug 2007 55 Posts

Error in count corrected I noticed an error in my count, we are in C(3)53v, but iii is 361,8 extended !? Attached Thumbnails

#1571    Jan 13, 2008 6:39pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

FxMt Looks like our counts are basically the same on GBPJPY except for the pportion of my C333. The C335 leg for me does not yet exhibit clear wave structures for a 12345 impulse 5th wave. So I only have projection for ppotential end which are FE 261.8 @ 210.71 and FE 300.0 @ 208.14 While based on the Guide;ine of Equalit, C335 or C33 could end @ 210.42 EG FxMt..... I would appreciate it if you continue to post your GBPJPY or other pair EW charts here. Everyone is welcome to post their EW charts in this thread. This threadwas meant for EW discussion , that is why I placed this in the Discussion area and not in the Journal Division. So, keep those EW charts coming. Attached Thumbnails       __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1572    Jan 13, 2008 6:46pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

EURUSD 1.4811 now. Looking for a possible pullback/ retracement from 1.4818 (for wave2 )which was Fridays closing high. If price breaks 1.4818 now, this is most likely to continue higher as it develops wave 3. otherwise I would look for a pull back towards 1.4708 which is the 61.8% retracement EG on second thought, if this is wave 2 now B @ 1.4815 is too close to what could be the origin of A @ 1.4818. This means for C=100A (1.4770) and C=A1.618 (1.4742) . If it goes lower than that still, then the move down from 1.4818 becomes an impulse wave structure instead of a corrective wave. __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1573    Jan 14, 2008 5:00am

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

GBPUSD and EURUSD Ending Diagonal 5 to finish wave C down. Followed by a reversal. now looking for a 5 wave impulse UP then a 3 wave pull back, so we can trade the wave C or 3 going UP. EG PS. EURUSD ma be in for a wave 2 retrace now toward 1.4798 or lower towards 1.4767 or 1.4737. __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1574    Jan 14, 2008 12:01pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

GBPJPY Targets from Monday Asian Session Asian Monday session: GBPJPY Targets for the end of wave 3 within wave 3 of a wave C down: Based on Fib Extention: FE 261.8 210.71 achieved @ 210.71 to the pip on my chart FE 300.0 208.14 Based on Wave Equality w5 = w1 210.42 EG __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

#1575    Jan 14, 2008 8:24pm

el grande Latagaw FOREX_ EWA Member Since Nov 2006   1,793 Posts

GBPUSD scenario Applying Reasoning and Logic based on the Rules and Guidelines. Let us see if GBPUSD will respect the EW Rules and Guidelines..... Unless it is my understanding of these which is flawed.... Price was lowest at 1.9481. if we consider C = A 1.618, then price has just exceeded this by a few pips. ( to me it is not substantial to disregard its being end of C. 2nd is, if this is to be considered as a wave 3 and not as a wave C, I think the rule that a triangle can not be found at the end of a wave 3 will be broken. Another thing is the 53535 structure which this triangle sports. Therefore, I would be more inclined to consider this as an ending diagonal wave 5 of a wave C, which would then lead me to be bias that GBPUSD has had its corrective bottom at 1.9481. If my reasoning or logic is flawed, kindly help me out on this one. EG Attached Thumbnails       __________________ EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS