Oct 6, 2007 5:21am
FxMt
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Quote:
Originally Posted by el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Chart 1
I should have posted this first before the chart on the upper post so you can better see the transition.
Anyway, I tried enhacing the previous chart to have more details for the final Analysis.
I hope somebody makes money out of this should it ever unfold as such.
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Hi EG,
can I ask you how do you see this count on H1 according to your count?
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53646&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191662422
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 6, 2007 6:48am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FxMt http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Hi EG,
can I ask you how do you see this count on H1 according to your count?
Hello FxMt
You will see that I have revised my wave c up count in the next post without invalidating yet my Projections for the medium to Long term.
I will go for your Questioned Labelling for 1? and 2?
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__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Oct 6, 2007 8:28am
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#745
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el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Short Term Projection for GBPJPY
I have revised my wave count for the sub wave c UP of big wave B UP.
It seems that wave 3 inside wave c is finished after getting into a micro EW Count.
This has resulted in What I see as a diagonal triangle / Wedge where wave1 is allowed to overlap with wave 4 in this case because this occurred in a wave 5 inside wave 3.
This is further supported with what we now see as a wedge that we can apply the Wedge theory to. ( As far as I can remeber, the original theory was npt allowed to be discussed here. How ever, I am discussing this based on EW theory and chart Patterns which seem to have the same strategies ).
Anyway.... to move on with this you will see in the chart that somehow things look like they will fall into place and the whole thing looks too IDEAL and too good to be TRUE.
But if it does unfold as such, may you all profit from this.
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Ok I give up... I have rebooted my computer as I am unable to attach new charts to this posts for continuity.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53655&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191668193
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Oct 6, 2007 7:26am
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#746
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 6, 2007 7:32am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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followed by
and finally I am I able to attach all my charts
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Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53657&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191670253 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53658&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191670253 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53659&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191670312 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53660&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191670312
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53661&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191670330
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Oct 6, 2007 7:48am
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#747
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 6, 2007 8:12am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Allow me to correct my monthly chart projection Limits.
In the earlier chart I referred to wave 4 limit as 208.14.
This was a mistake as this is wave 1 inside wave 3. Since we are now in wave 4 inside wave C, then the wave 4 limit should be end of wave 1 in wave C @ 192.43
I would maintain my stand now that price will not go lower than previous low of 219.31 as some major analysts have predicted ( well... they probably know more. I am but a newbie here. )
But based on the number of things I have tossed into the cooking pan of analysis using EWT, Harmonics, FIBS and the Wedge this is how I see things to turn out with this pair.
Maybe I am just trying to fit evrything to some thing very idealistic...
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Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53668&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191673496
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Oct 6, 2007 8:25am Reason: replaced with a better chart
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#748
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el grande
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Monday up to Tuesday... I would be looking forward to watching Price drop to 235.74 or ;ower . But not lower than 234.22
Then if the bounce appears and pricer reverses, then I would expect price to go up the range of 245.21 to 247.51 for the end of Big Wave B for the rest of the week till next week.
That would sound like a nice carry trade till next week.
The only major Drop that I expect to happen when this Big wave B occurs is a 38.2% retracement / Drop towards 235.32
I maintain that view because I am expecting this to play out a Bearish Butterfly on the Daily Chart while unfolding its EW Count.
From 235.32....... It will be BACK to the Carry Trade.
Let us not follow the crowd.
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EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#749
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 7, 2007 4:18am
kenari05
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can you analyze australian dollars?
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#750
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 7, 2007 8:24am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif My GBPJPY Analysis and Forecast Starts Here (Explained)
hhhhhhmmmmmm.......
I was hoping to stir the pot and derive some form of discussion on the points I presented in my chart specially because it was not solely based on pure Elliott Wave Theory.
Maybe the way it was presented makes it difficult to understand...
So I will try again and try to break the analysis 1 by 1.
I will start off with the 5m chart.
First, I would like to set the basic or general direction that I am seeing for this Pair.
Using the monthly chart, I believe that we are in a Wave 4 Sideways moving corrective wave.
Wave 2 on the monthly chart as you will see is a sharp Zigzag wave. And by the RULE OF ALTERNATION Based on Elliott Wave Principles, if wave 2 is a simple sharp zigzag wave then we would expect wave 4 to be a complex sideways moving corrective wave. That is probably why we see this wave 4 to be expanding sideways. And by the looks of it, it does not look like it is forming a triangle.
In any corrective wave, we initially see a 3 wave structure ABC.
I then make an initial assumption that C = A. I use the FIB Extention Tool to project this FE 100.0% using Points 0 1 and 2.
Where :
0 is the origin of wave A
1 is the end of wave A
2 is the end of Wave B
FE 100.0 is my Initial Target for Wave C end.
I hope that I have explained my self well on this one.
Please refer to the attached monthly chart and NOTE that completion or attaining this target will take months or even years. I am just sort of giving you an over view of this pairs price direction.
In EW Theory, we believe that sub waves comprice these bigger waves we see in the monthly charts. This means that the same EW Principles are applied to the Price movement in the lower time frames as is applied on the higher TFs and that same waves that follow the same EW rules make up the bigger waves.
Kindly note the Purple ABC. This is how I see wave 4 unfolding.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53753&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191759766
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EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Oct 7, 2007 8:54am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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You may be wondering why I am repeating these posts....
Initially I thought posting charts and leaving notes on my charts would be enough.
Now I think, many who are not familiar with EWTheory/Principles may have a difficult time grasping what I am trying to present here. Not that I think these are all correct. But I am hoping to draw some form of discussion on the GBPJPY EW Count and hope that I can have my counts validated by other traders who use the EW theory in their arsenal of tools trading this pair.
So Let us move on...
Still on the monthly chart, as you can see, based on my chart I am already assuming that GBPJPY is now on the Wave C Up in this monthly chart.
Wave C we must remember is an impulse wave which is subdivided into 5 waves ( YELLOW LABEL ).
Following the guidelines in numbering or labelling impulse waves, you will see on the next chart that we already finished wave 3 yellow and we are now seeing Wave 4 inside this wave C.
I have skipped the weekly chart as we can still clearly see the wave structure on the monthly chart.
Note also where I have placed my target for wave 5 which is the end of this wave C up.
That is the FE 100.0 @ 259.93.
Using the FIB Extention tool which You see in Pale green using the Points 0 1 and 2
129.32
241.06
148.19
Now before we reach wave 5 end, we still have to tackle wave 4.
First we must determine what to expect wave 4 to be in terms of its structure. we there fore apply the rule of alternation after we determine the structure of wave 2.
As you can see on the chart, wave 2 is a complex sideways expanding corrective wave. Therefore we expect wave 4 to have the simple sharp zigzag corrective wave form.
Now here are some points I have gathered to remind me of what governs a wave 4 development.
1. wave 4 does not overlap with wave 1. unless it is in a wave leading diagonal triangle. since this is a wave C, then wave 4 is allowed to retrace down up to 192.43.
2. In terms of Percentage retracement, wave 4 can retrace the length of wave 3 from 23.6% up to 50%
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53754&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191760429
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EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 7, 2007 9:15am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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Ok... I have missed to label the end of wave 3 yellow on my monthly chart.
This is the High @ 251.07 on my chart. see enhanced chart below.
So drawing a Fib retracement scale from end of wave 2 up to end of wave 3.... you will see that the retrace range of 23.6 down to 50% is from 179.37 up to 234.15... and in many cases 38.2% retrace is most common.
Now.. note also that Prechter mentions in his book that wave 4 normally ( not alsways though ) ends at or near the termination point of a subwave 4 of the previous Im,pulse Wave 3.
If we then combine all this guidelines... It is possible ( BUT NOT ABSOLUTE ) that we may be seeing the possible low of this wave 4 even if it is not yet complete.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53758&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191762897
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EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#753
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 7, 2007 9:39am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY Daily CHART
On the Daily Chart..
Initially the move from 251.07 down to 219.31 was considered to be a Big Wave A. This could take the form of 3 or 5 waves.
We can clearly see a 3 wave structure on the chart. The only way for us to be able to confirm that Big wave A is complete at 219.31 is by seeing the wave 4 count of a `12345 count get invalidated.
That is if the retracement up goes higher than the assumed wave 1 end at 237.60.
Our current price is at 238.71 with an earlier high at 238.84. This confirms the end of Big Wave A at 219.31
So we are in Big wave B now.
The Rule of alternation also applies to Wave A and Wave B. If wave a is a sharp or simple zigzag then wave B will be a complex sideways expanding corrective wave.
In this case, Big Wave A is a sharp zigzag wave so Big Wave B must be a complex sideways expanding corrective wave.
As we can see on the Daily chart, Big Wave has expanded sideways and formed a triangle in its sub wave B also.
Big wave B though classified as an expanded wave may also simply be described as a 3 wave structure ABC even if the sub wave B is a triangle.
sub wave a and sub wave b ( triangle ) already looks complete. So we should now be seeing the sub wave c inside this Big wave B to be unfolding.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53759&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191764349
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EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#754
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 7, 2007 10:25am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif 4hour chart
Now that we are in wave c which is divided into 5 waves as an impulse wave,
This is where I have to options of labelling me EW Counts on this Pair.
First I use the FIB extention tool to project wave 3 and wave 5 when I can see that a POSSIBLE count for wave 1 and wave 2 is present.
Option 1 ______
First sign is where I positioned the Magenta FIB Extention tool.
This means that wave one started at 229.20 which is also the end of the triangle sub wave b and the wave 1 is at 234.22 and wave 2 is at 229.72
Option 2 ______
Second potential count iswave 1 still at 234.22 while wave 2 is at 233.67
I will select Option 1 because I came across a literature and I can not remember where.... but it states that sub wave 1 of wave 3 must go beyond end of higher degree wave 1. This is only satisfied by Option 1 in Magenta.
As a guideline then I will set my target for sub wave 3 at the FE 161.8 of this drawn FIB Extention tool Magenta. And this is at 239.19.
Referring to the chart again, you will see that we are very near this price level on the GBPJPY.
Let us dissect the wave 3 further on this 4 hour chart.
We know that wave 3 ( 33 here ) must never be the shortest. Seeing what seems a 5 wave structure already finished, let us check if the previous rule has been violated.
Again we use the fib extention tool on each impusle wave.
we see wave 33 is a little less than 100% of wave 31 ( Pale Green FIB Extention Tool. This means that wave 33 is shorter than wave 31. therefore, wave 35 must be shorter than wave 33 to adhere to the rule.
Let us measure or compare the current length of wave 35 to wave 33 using the BLUE FIB Extention tool. Here we see that wave 35 is just about 80% of wave 33.
With this , it means that wave 33 is not the shortest comparing to wave 31 and possible wave 35.
wave 31, 32 and 33 seem to have already exhibited the complete characteristics of their wave nature and completetd the sub wave counts.
This leaves us to confirm the remaining wave 35
PS. the chart below supercedes the previous EW Count I made and posted as a revision prior to this specially where I label wave 2 in the sub wave c.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53761&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191767374
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EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#755
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 7, 2007 11:14am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Now a cleaner chart on the 4h TF
Projecting target for wave 3 navajo white using the magenta FIB Extention Tool.... this is at FE 161.8 @ 239.46 Price is just about to reach it with the Friday's climb.
Using the internal wave structure of wave 3 navajo white using the yellow waves 30 , 31 and 32...... based on the Pale Green FIB Extention tool, wave 35 is expected to reach FE 261.8 @ 245.01
But using the projections of the Pale Green FIB extention tool seems to over shoot the actual natural target. Besides the internal structure of the wave 3 navajo white is not the usual type as it seems that it is wave 31 which is extended and not wave 33.
Furthermore, as I have explained in the earlier post wave 33 is found to be shorter than wave 31. therfore wave 35 must be shorter than wave 33.
And as you can see the 2nd chart, this rule does not seem to have been violated it. But I must be able to prove that wave 35 is already finished or at least will be lower than the BLUE FE 100.0 @ 239.60
higher than 239.60 will invalidate the wave count inside wave 3 navajo white because this will make wave 35 longer than wave 33 which is already shorter than wave 31.
we must also remember that Big Wave B on the daily chart normally retraces Big Wave A up to 78.6% which is already at 244.27
so we can not just end wave 35 or wave 3 navajo white @ 244.27 since this suggested end of Big wave B where we are at its sub wave c and probably at the end of its wave 3 navajo white would seem very unlikely considering that we still have to make a retracement of commonly 38.2 percent of wave 33before wave 5 navajo white for its sub wave c end.
so i had to use other tools to seek validation or potential confirmation if we really saw the end of wave 35 or wave 3 navajo white.
and the wedge theory was brought up which I encountered in the Daily GBPJPY Analysis thread.
after checking and making some calculations, I think I found a reason to seek additional confirmation using a deeper knowledge of EWT.
then I got reminded about the leading diagonal triangle which when found in a wave 5 (here it is wave 35) will render a wave count valid. and here we are, i believe we have a leading diagonal triangle in this 4 hour chart.
Next step is to prove that the internal structure of this leading diagobnal triangle conforms to the EW Rules.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53765&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191770066 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53766&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191770066
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Oct 7, 2007 11:31am Reason: added text and explanations
Oct 7, 2007 11:42am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Proving validity of Leading Diagonal Triangle / Wedge
let us jump into the 15 minute TF.
you will see that in the attached chart, we have what seems a valid and qualified internal subwaves of this leading diagonal .
next to prove is that wave 55 on attached chart for the end of wave 35 must have a valid 5 wave impulse wave. which it seems to be exhibiting in the 2nd chart.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53768&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191771668 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53769&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191771668
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 7, 2007 12:47pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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Assuming that wave 35 is valid and that wave 3 navajo white has ended,
We can only further confirm this once price breaches or falls below the lower side of the wedge. When that happens, I would be looking at the 38.2% retracement of this wave 3 navajo white for the wave 4 navajo white.
like I said earlier, wave 4 retraces wave 3 from 23.6 to 50%. and commonly it retraces 38.2%
Now, notice where 38.2% retracement falls and compare that to the estimated Price based on the wedge theory...
The attached chart would show that they both fall in almost the same area.
Should we call this mere coincidence?
Anyway, based on EWT, wave 4 is allowed to retrace up to the end of wave 1 at 234.22 though this exceeds the suggested limit of 50%.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53785&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191776463
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Oct 7, 2007 1:01pm Reason: fixed chart labels
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#758
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 7, 2007 1:09pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Potential scenarios for this week
1. Throwever of price outside the wedge above it upperside going for the FE 161.8 @ 239.46. 38.2% retraces falls at 235.74
2. Price has seen its wave 35 end at 238.84, then 38.2% retracement is at 235.36.
But like I said, this is just the ideal coincidence. And based on EWT, price for wave 4 is allowed to retrace till end of wave 1 at 234.22
The 38.2% retracement and that wave 4 limitation may be translated as strong support levels.
If price goes lower than 234.22, then my EW Count is invalid.
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Oct 7, 2007 8:25pm Reason: typo
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#759
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 7, 2007 1:27pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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If wave 4 plays out as expected and making my EW count valid, then price should continue to climb again for the wave 5 navajo white.
Sights are set for the FE 261.8 - 300.0 of the Red FIB Extention Tool at 245.48 - 247.48
Incidentally, this range also falls in the same area as the 61.8% - 78.6% ratracement of the Big Wave A to attain Big Wave B.
Another coincidence?
Please not that on the chart, another thing to watch out for is the estimated time at which price will meet the estimated price target of the Bullish wedge retracement. where a vertical line is drawn from the intersection of the extended support and resistance trendlines that formed the wedge and see where that vertical line intersected the trendline formed by extending the line using points 1 and 4 of the price bounce inside the wedge. And here it is estimated to be attained at 2007.10.15.20:00 GMT +6.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53789&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191778034
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#760
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 7, 2007 1:42pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Jamming Area for the FIBS
Zooming out and looking atthe 4 hour chart again.....
we canb see that a number of projections using the FIB Extention tool have their estimated price levels almost in the same area as the others.
Let us take this 1 by 1.
1. Big Wave B yellow is seen as a 3 wave B were if C=A ( Aqua ABC ) then C is equal to FE 100.0 @ 244.39
2. Wave 5 navajo white is estimated to be in the range of FE 261.8 - 300.0 (Magenta FIB Extention Tool) 245.48 - 247.78
3. Incidentally, based on a guideline, Big Wave B is expected to retrace Big Wave A by 61.8 to 78.6% and 78.6% is at 244.27 Golden FIB retracement Levels on the right side of the chart.
ALL boxed in Yellow
Multiple coincidences?
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53793&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191778961
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EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#761
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 7, 2007 2:15pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
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Attached to this post are Charts which I present to show an ideal classic potential scenario for the GBPJPY Pair probably forecastiong what to expect till next year.
First shows A Potential Harmonic Pattern applied to the EW and Fib based chart.
I am making probably too many assumptions here. But as I said before.... this is justa potential scenario for this pair.
various validating factors need to be monitored to determine if this is still a potential turnout for this pair as time goes by.
2nd chart would show labels for EW and also for the Potential Harmonic Pattern which I think would fall in the classification of a Bearish Butterfly.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53796&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191780873 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53797&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191780873
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#762
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 7, 2007 2:44pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
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After you analyze the last 2 charts above, you will probably or definitely notice that my wave C yellow is too short for your taste... http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
First let me answer your question "WHY?"
..... A thought crossed my mind to see a possible relationship between EW and Harmonic Patterns.
Although wave 4 has not fully evolved yet, based on the projections I made.... Big wave B would fall on the 78.6% retracement of Wave A.
Based on that, I checked the Guide line for harmonic Patterns that would possibly allow a "B" which makes a 78.6% retracement of the XA Leg.
And I came up with 2.
First is the Bearish Butterfly
Second is the Bullish AB=CD
I will expound on this later. need to get some sleep out here.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
PS. Time Element on the chart has no valid precision yet. I was just toying on the possibilities. I am still working on how I can include Time into my analysis
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53800&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191782652
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Oct 7, 2007 7:07pm
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#763
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 7, 2007 7:57pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
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In my earlier posts before Post # 750, I thought there was just 1 Harmonic/Gartley Pattern that would fit teh Potential structure of the EW Count I thought I was seeing and will see in GBPJPY.
While doing this step by step presentation, I realized that there was another Pattern that would fit in.
That is why now we have
Bearish Butterfly in combination with the Running Flat corrective wave for the Wave 4
And a 2nd pattern which is the Bullish AB=CD
The Bearish Butterfly is projected to unfold when
1st Price based on EWT should reach FE 261.8 ( 245.48 Red Fib Extention Tool ) of wave 012 inside wave wave c of the Big wave B Up
2nd this also coincides with the 78.6% retracement of the Big Wave A (244.27). and
3rd This will give us a 78.6% retracement (244.27) of the XA leg 251.07 - 219.31 ) for Point B in the Harmonic Pattern
To "make it fit" into this pattern and still find it valid, price then needs to retrace down only by 38.2% toward 234.74 for its Big Wave C down. This is still valid as a complete corrective wave and classified as a Running flat corrective wave even if it does not go down lower than 219.31 which is the end of Big Wave A. This can happen when the main Trend which is Bullish is too strong and thus leads price to move up again.
If this turns out to be the case, Wave 5 Of the Wave C in the monthly Chart will thus begin and unfold to possibly complete the CD leg of this potential Bearish Butterfly and also complete the wave 5 inside the Wave C in the monthly chart. This will be valid only if price projection reaches 1.27 retracement up of the XA leg for the end of Point D. which could take weeks or months.
Note that in the chart ( please excuse it for looking a bit messy. I had to put in most of the tools to have less charts and see most if not all tools and projections in just 1 chart for easy viewing )Bearish Butterfly point D projection ( 127% retrace of XA leg falls on 259.85) and a valid AB=CD also falls in that area at 259.70. In addition, wave C end in the monthly chart is projected to be in the same vicinity if C=A in the monthly @ 259.93
This Bearish Butterfly Pattern is seen as the 2 Blue triangles on my Chart
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
PS. Note that if Price goes beyond the limits that have been set using the Bearish Butterfly Pattern, Then these Projections and Forecast becomes invalid.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53853&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191801607
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#764
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 7, 2007 8:19pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Alternative Wave 4 Yellow Structure
As an alternative structure to what I have presented above, it is also possible "to fit or expect to fit Price to another Harmonic Pattern " as it unfolds its EW Count too.
And that is the Bullish AB=CD
where we see price
1. still reach 78.6% (244.27) retracement for the Big Wave B
2. internal structure of Big Wave B project its end at FE 100.0 at 245.48 C=A
3. then see a possible fall to 212.51 which is FE 100.0 of the C=A of a Zigzag corrective wave 4. ( which incidentally is a requirement for the Bullish AB=CD)
4. Note that it also coincides with the 127% percent ( Magenta Fib Retracement ) Projection for the retracement of the AB leg of the Bullish AB=CD Pattern and this lands @ 212.57 which is just 6 pips off the mark.
See the 1st blue triangle and match it with the Pale Green Triangle
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53855&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191802783
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#765
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 7, 2007 8:54pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Diagonal Triangle Theory on this 4 hour chart is invalid now???
Quote:
Originally Posted by el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Now that we are in wave c which is divided into 5 waves as an impulse wave,
This is where I have to options of labelling me EW Counts on this Pair.
First I use the FIB extention tool to project wave 3 and wave 5 when I can see that a POSSIBLE count for wave 1 and wave 2 is present.
Option 1 ______
First sign is where I positioned the Magenta FIB Extention tool.
This means that wave one started at 229.20 which is also the end of the triangle sub wave b and the wave 1 is at 234.22 and wave 2 is at 229.72
Option 2 ______
Second potential count iswave 1 still at 234.22 while wave 2 is at 233.67
I will select Option 1 because I came across a literature and I can not remember where.... but it states that sub wave 1 of wave 3 must go beyond end of higher degree wave 1. This is only satisfied by Option 1 in Magenta.
As a guideline then I will set my target for sub wave 3 at the FE 161.8 of this drawn FIB Extention tool Magenta. And this is at 239.19.
Referring to the chart again, you will see that we are very near this price level on the GBPJPY.
Let us dissect the wave 3 further on this 4 hour chart.
We know that wave 3 ( 33 here ) must never be the shortest. Seeing what seems a 5 wave structure already finished, let us check if the previous rule has been violated.
Again we use the fib extention tool on each impusle wave.
we see wave 33 is a little less than 100% of wave 31 ( Pale Green FIB Extention Tool. This means that wave 33 is shorter than wave 31. therefore, wave 35 must be shorter than wave 33 to adhere to the rule.
Let us measure or compare the current length of wave 35 to wave 33 using the BLUE FIB Extention tool. Here we see that wave 35 is just about 80% of wave 33.
With this , it means that wave 33 is not the shortest comparing to wave 31 and possible wave 35.
wave 31, 32 and 33 seem to have already exhibited the complete characteristics of their wave nature and completetd the sub wave counts.
This leaves us to confirm the remaining wave 35
PS. the chart below supercedes the previous EW Count I made and posted as a revision prior to this specially where I label wave 2 in the sub wave c.
Diagonal Triangle / Wedge Theory for what I thought was the 5th wave inside wave 3 could now be invalid because price still went up higher than 238.84 to 239.20.
Or is this the throwover to the upside? But checking the price structure, it may still be valid with the revised count on the attached chart. Giving a clearer 5 wave structure for the sub wave C inside that zigzag wave 5 inside the leading diagonal triangle.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
My mind
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53864&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191804765
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Oct 7, 2007 10:29pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Update for Potential Direction on GBPJPY
Attached chart modified on the Fib Retracement Levels due to the new High.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53879&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191810563
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #768
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 7, 2007 10:29pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar25165_1.gifmarketwavez
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif768 Posts
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Here is a look at the Usd/Yen going into next week....http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
- Price action appears to be moving towards the " End of a Wave 3 "
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
( Double Click on chart to Enlarge )
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53880&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191810590
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#769
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 7, 2007 11:16pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by marketwavez http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Here is a look at the Usd/Yen going into next week....http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
- Price action appears to be moving towards the " End of a Wave 3 "
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
( Double Click on chart to Enlarge )
It looks like GBPJPY is following a similar Pattern to How USDJPY is unfolding.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#770
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 7, 2007 11:25pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Triple Top on 4h?
A triple Top may be forming on the 4h chart of GBPJPY.
However, the first 2 candles indicate bullishness.
1st candle has a long bullidh body
2nd candle has a long lower shadow with a very narrow bearish Body and barely any upper wick and this indicates Bullishness in the market
so that is at least 2 out of 3 for the triple topwhose thrid candle is not yet finished.
on the 1hour chart, this is already a 4 point top and now shows an ascending triangle with an initially flat top level. and this indicates bullishness also.
So if I see price closing above 239.20, this means that the Bulls are in control of the market.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53889&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191813903 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53890&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191813903
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#771
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 9, 2007 12:36am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif UPDATE 100907
I am a slow typist and prparing the charts take quite a lot of time for me. So I will post the charts first and explain later. maybe the others can cderive some ideas from these charts.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Step 1 on the Daily
I have revised my Wave B count to have a running flat joined by an x wave to a triangle. Some thing was bothering about the earlier triangle I drew plus the rule of alrenation betweeen an A and a B wave.
Hopefully , this count will be a better one I think.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=54155&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191904526
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#772
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 9, 2007 12:42am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Step 2 - 4H
On the 4 hour chart
Target is 237.40 before a retracement up for the sub wave 2 up for a main move down
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=54160&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191904894
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Oct 9, 2007 12:46am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Step 3 _ 1h
on the 1 hour chart
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=54161&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191905139
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #774
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 9, 2007 12:50am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Step 4 m30
on the m30 chart
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=54162&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191905423
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#775
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 9, 2007 12:54am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Step 5 _ m15
my 15m chart
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=54163&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191905670
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#776
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 9, 2007 1:16am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif m15 detailing route
watching if it will unfold as per chart
But first needs to go LOWER than 237.81 to dispell possibility of being a wave 4 retracement of wave 3.
Inner waves of the suspected wave 1 down are labelled in RED.
note first sub wave 1 red down at 238.59
then a more than 61.8% retracement for the wave 2 Red up.
Wave 3 down is seen with a bearish pennant (small wave 2 inside wave 3) followed by a symmetrical triangle ( triangle corrective wave 4 - indicating a continuing trend down ) waiting for wave 5 inside this wave 3 to finish of at the target range of FE 161.8 @ 237.55 to FE 200.00@ 237.13.
Then expect a retrace of about 38.2% of wave 3 towards 238.15 for the wave 4.
Then Price continues to go down towards the 38.2% FIB Level in Magenta ( 235.89.
Note that this is in the Yellow box where the FE Target Range of 261.8 - 300.00 (Wave 5 target range) is located.
Also note that the 1st impulse wave 1 of a possible reversal in trend must over balance the previous wave 5 impulse wave of same degree whose origin is at 236.14
when wave 5 or this first impulse weave is finished, we then expect price to retrace to the upside by at least 61.8% which could probably take us back to the 238.0 area.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=54164&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191906296
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#777
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 9, 2007 1:46am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Daily chart Analysis
Going back to the Daily chart on Post # 771
I have reviewed my wave counts again and made some adjustments.
To me it seems that a complete impulse wave has been finished now topping at 239.70 which falls on the or near the 61.8% retracement of rthe drop from 251.07 to 219.31 @ 238.94 Just a 24 pip difference.
This impulse wave could either be the whole of the sub wave c inside the Big Wav B up or it is only wave 1 of the sub wave c up od Big Wave B up.
There are 2 ways to verify this.
First, understand that price will fall or is falling now. I expect it to retrace once it reaches the vicinity of 236.0. If prices retraces and goes higher than 239.70, then there will be a continuation of the sub wave Cc up of the Big Wave B Up. this means we are in a wave 3 inside the sub wave c.
If price upon reaching 236, retraces no higher than 239.70 and starts to go down again, then next arget would be 229.72 specially if it goes lower than 232.37
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#778
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 9, 2007 2:05am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif AUDUSD
Quote:
Originally Posted by kenari05 http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
can you analyze australian dollars?
Here you go. I hope this helps.
On the 4 hour chart, I see AUDUSD having finished wave 3 at 0.9033
Expectuing a wave 4 retrace which is commonly seen at 38.2% (0.8704) this could be 1st TP.
Depending on how the wave infolds, it is still possible for it to go down up to 50-61.8%
Technically, it just should not go lower than wave 1 end at 0.8335.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=54176&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191909893
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#779
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 9, 2007 2:24am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif AUDUSD Daily
for
kenari05
Potential direction of AUDUSD as I see it on my chart
First I am looking at at least a 38.2 retracement as my 1st TP. next would be 50% then 61.8%.
Need to watch the waves unfold.
Maximum price can go down is till wave 1 end at 0.8335
afte finishong wave 4 it then goes back to the uptrend targetting the area of PARITY with the USD.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=54177&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191911024
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#780
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 9, 2007 8:26pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EW Count Revision for GBPJPY
With the unfolding of the waves last night, the expected Fall of the pair has failed.
I have missed or maybe I completely ignored the rule that Wave 3 should never be the shortest.
**** Now I remember,
1st Is how I labelled Point 34. As you can see in the chart, I labelled Point or wave 34 at 234.93. If we look at wave 32.... we see the same form which is a simple sharp down move ( corrective wave ) _ high % of mistake here.
2nd my wave 51 seems wrong now. from a 4h chart then go down to the 1 hour chart, the 1st standard 5 wave impulse ends lower than the wave 33 aqua. It may have gone up some more to go higher. but looking at it now, it looks more like the continuation was for the sub wave b abd sub wave c inside the 1st leg of a corrective wave A which is divided inti 3 instead of 5.
3rd if i labelled 52 as the 34, then the rule of alternation would have been satisfied which is probably why I considered 239.70 as the top. because my point 2 landed on where 52 is on the current chart.
My use of the FIB Extention tool to compare wave lengths ( comparing wave 3 and wave 5 basing it on the FE 100.0. has encountered a dilemna specially with a complex corrective wave where the possibility of a Wave c being shorter than wave a occurs. This dilemna is where I should start measuring the length of the next wave such as wave 5. will it be at the end of the shorter sub wave c or is it at the end of the longest sub wave in the complex wave?? because I probably used the end of the last sub wave which unfortunately was shorter than normal causing me to have a shorter wave 5 measurement compared to the previous wave 3 length
So a revision of the micro wave count needs to be done.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=54424&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191975958
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Oct 9, 2007 8:33pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Possible New EW Count for GBPJPY
Revised EW Count
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
I think 54 needs to expand
SO I expect it to visit near yesterdays's low or lower .
But not lower than 31 @ 237.04 to complete the sub wave c of this expanding wave 34. Magenta Box
Although, you will notice that there is already a 5 pip violation here as wave 34 yellow went lower than wave 31 yellow 237.04 and the sub wave a of wave 34 yellow went to 236.99
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=54426&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191976367 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=54434&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191979781
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Oct 9, 2007 9:30pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #782
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 10, 2007 8:45am
ronnimar
Member
Member Since Dec 2006
7 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
follow up post 557.
slowly but surely !!!
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=54578&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192020318
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#783
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 12, 2007 3:58pm
JackSpade
Member
Member Since Jan 2006
17 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Afternoon squires, nice thread.
My eurusd wave counting chart... might be attached... if I have done it right...
Attached Imageshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=55301&stc=1&d=1192218957
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#784
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 12, 2007 4:17pm
surfer76
Member
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/1kt.gif41 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Hi Jake,
have mostly the same count. Waiting for the downmove.
Regards
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#785
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 12, 2007 7:06pm
ronnimar
Member
Member Since Dec 2006
7 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
nice chart jackspade
but there is only 1 problem.
as it look's ?! your w:4 will terminates in 1.3828
and that is in side the territory of w:1 (mark in red )
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/confused.gif
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#786
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 13, 2007 6:15am
JackSpade
Member
Member Since Jan 2006
17 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Hi surfer76 & ronnimar.
I meant for the current 'c' wave to have a target of the 50% fibonacci, which is also the level where the previous 'iv' wave stopped, and also where the top of 'I' stopped - although it does go inside a little bit you are right ronnimar so maybe have target inbetween 38.2 & 50.0
Im not sure about the bigger waves (I II III IV V) to be honest, more focused on the smaller waves (i ii iii iv v).
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#787
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 13, 2007 8:42am
surfer76
Member
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/1kt.gif41 Posts
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Hi,
i try to use ew not to rigid. In my first attempts i stayed hard by the theory.
But after gaining some experience in this area i try to handle this rule flexible. From my point of view it is only a guideline and not a strict rule. In very few situations you can see an ideal ew-pattern.
That´s the reason why i use Fibo´s and PF. EW is only one of three components. If we go down, than the task is to find a good ew count in lower TF to indicate the end.
Hope you can understand my thoughts.
Regards
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#788
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 15, 2007 10:12pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY EW Count Update
Based on my EW Count, GBPJPY seem to have just finished wave 1 and wave 2 of the Bigger wave C inside Big wave B of wave 4.
Attached charts show where I think this pair is at.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=55852&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192500705 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=55853&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192500705 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=55854&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192500718
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Oct 15, 2007 10:46pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif 15m
wave 2 of wave c down
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=55861&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192502801
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #790
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 15, 2007 11:49pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif B wave looks like it is Expanding
Attaching new chart to show expansion of b wave
Targetting 239.85 FE 100.0 to have at least C=A in a Zigzag B wave. It could go as high as 240.42 at the FE 161.8 level.
Then I would expect it to go down for the wave c to complete the wave 2 retracement inside bigger wave 3 up.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=55868&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192506238 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=55870&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192506493
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#791
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 16, 2007 10:20am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Lower than 237.40 Invalidated my EW Count in GBPJPY.]
EG
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Oct 16, 2007 8:06pm
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#792
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 17, 2007 8:35am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY
We may have seen the top of Big Wave B @ 240.66
I am attaching a chart which I see as having conformed with EW Rules to complete a 5 wave structure sub wave c inside the big wave B UP.
This means that this pair is heading south and the move from 235.74 going up now @ 238.41 is a retracement of a subwave 1 down of the Big QWave C down. Retracement is wave 2 up and may go as high as 240.66 @ 100% retracement.
If price goes higher than 240.66..... this means that we are now on Wave 3 UP inside the sub wave c up of the big wave B UP.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=56264&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192624480 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=56265&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192624480 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=56266&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192624494
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#793
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 18, 2007 2:59am
money
Multiple Usernames
Member Since Jul 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/1kt.gif106 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif gbp_usd
my analysis on gbp/usd, and i think that gbp will go higher.
Nice day!!
4h_chart
http://www.trading-fx.si/forum/privatslike/ScreenHunter_09.gif
1h_chart
http://www.trading-fx.si/forum/privatslike/ScreenHunter_10.gif
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#794
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 18, 2007 9:47pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD
Hey money....
Thank you for posting your EW Charts here.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#795
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 18, 2007 9:49pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY Update
my current Count
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=56866&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192758546 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=56867&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192758546 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=56868&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192758565 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=56869&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192758565
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=56870&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192758584 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=56871&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192758584
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Oct 18, 2007 11:29pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
another chart
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=56888&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192764564
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #798
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 18, 2007 11:51pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
ending diagonal triangle?
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=56894&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192765901
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#799
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 18, 2007 11:56pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
revised chart
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=56896&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192766160
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#800
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 19, 2007 12:15am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
more charts for potential moves
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=56901&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192767291 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=56902&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192767291
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#801
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 19, 2007 12:18am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
waiting for a break of the lower side of the Andrew's Pitchfork.
Otherwise we may be headed higher
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=56903&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192767465
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#802
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 19, 2007 12:32am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
50% in time and 50% retracement for the AP values
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=56907&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192768318
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Oct 19, 2007 6:03am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
adjusted my wave 3 yellow
missed to take profit on that last dive. still holding my short now and actually added at 235.79
yelllow wave 4 possible from 38.2 to 50% retracement 236.12 to 236.52 but not higher than 236.64 or wave 1 yellow.
if it goes higher than 236.64, then my count is invalid. will need to close my shorts at a loss
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=56958&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192787941
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #804
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 19, 2007 6:06am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
15m
got a bit late here. spike occurred
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=56960&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192788357
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#805
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 19, 2007 6:11am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
trendline_daily
Pitchfork
Fib retracement and projection
EW
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=56962&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192788706
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#806
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 19, 2007 6:19am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
236.55 high as of now
invalid count if goes higher than 236.64
236.73 high now has invalidated my count.
this could be prep for longer term move UP. will need to work on my counts again
EG
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=56964&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192789100
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#807
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 19, 2007 6:33am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar14647_1.gifpeekaboo
Member
Member Since Jul 2006
43 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
oh no....have to recount....
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#808
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 19, 2007 7:28am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Current limit to still consider a Big Wave C down is up to 238.78.
This would mean that we are just in the wave 2 inside wave 3 down of the big wave C Down.
So this could be considered as just a retracement.
IMHO.... the break of the daily trend line can be considered as the start of the decline for this pair and what we are seeing as an upmove now is but a retracement.
So 238.78 is limit for move up to still consider the continuation of the move down for wave 3.
Currently waiting on the sidelines now.
Closed my short trades (2) at a loss.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=56985&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192793297
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#809
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 19, 2007 8:43am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
presenting another 30m chart
maybe someone will find something useful in it
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=57018&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192797771
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#810
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 20, 2007 7:58am
FxMt
Member
Member Since Aug 2007
55 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif Just another count
Quote:
Originally Posted by el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
presenting another 30m chart
maybe someone will find something useful in it
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
EG, I still have this count on the table...
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=57240&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192881456 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=57242&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192881822
Oct 20, 2007 12:02pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by FxMt http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
EG, I still have this count on the table...
Hey FxMt..
Yes your ABC Count is still possible. If you look at the charts I attach with the trendlines on it on 4h, 1h and 15m charts, I would say that wave 5 of this wave C down would be near the level of that support trendline 234.60 or could even fall below that.
On the other hand, I am still not removing from the table that it is still possible that we could be in the wave 3 down of the wave c down.
As you can see from my posts, I do not base my analysis on EW alone. I keep an open mind using other tools to supplement my EW Analysis and price direction Analysis.
I consider Trendline breakouts specially in the higher timeframes important like this 4h trendline Support Breakout. To me, this could signal a confirmation that this pair is going south big time.
However, we also see a falling wedge which could also mean that we have a bullish continuation trend.
A falling wedge theory count of 12345 should have seen a breakout to the north after the 5th count. But instead it has gone south again to probably kiss the lower side of the wedge again to make the 8th count.
So to me, considering all this now, I would say that a 123 or an ABC count for this south move which started around 240.66 level is still possible. We could continue going south if this is a 123 of a 5 wave impulse wave c. Or we could wait for wave c down to finish its wave 5 in this zigzag ABC from 240.66
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
PS.
I am attaching a series of charts where I drew support and resistance trendlines, ew labels on different TFs, fib retracements.
I am putting them on separate charts to minimize confusion for those trying to look at these charts. I am more used to having all these tools in just 1 or just a few charts so I can see them in just 1 place. But I understand that these could confuse many.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=57274&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192896047 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=57275&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192896047 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=57276&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192896068 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=57277&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192896068
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=57278&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192896132
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #812
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 20, 2007 12:34pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Hey FxMt
We have an EW Count Difference on the 4h chart. While you have just an abc for the b wave inside the big wave B up, I have a flat and a triangle.
I am not saying that my count is better than yours but just trying to point out to the new ones here about this difference.
To be honest, I am still unclear and not so fully convinced with that complex wave labelling I did. I just feel and think that I am not breaking any EW Rules with this count. Unless someone could please point out to me here if I have violated any EW Rule I would appreciate hearing from someone who sees an EW Rule violation in my count.
I am currently up 93 pips on my demo account. but still a long way off from recovering from that loss I suffered after closing my 2 short trades on that last move up to 237.00 I exited those trades for a total of 272 pips.
Too bad I exited both at once. I was not too clear with my count on 32 and 33 yellow which promted me to decide to cut my losses.
So for now, I will be looking at what happens on the market open on Asian Monday.
Incidentally, I was just trying to check Potential wave 5 projection of the your wave c down or my potential wave 3 down using the fib projection/extention tool.
And what do I get here?.....
We see that wave 3 aqua is bery near the FE 161.8 level
When I use this tool to project wave 5, I would normally look for the FE 261.8 to FE 300.00 That is 232.46 - 231.62
On the otherhand, if my reversal stand holds, then my wave 3 projection is in the area of 230.97 - 229.13 Blue EW Labels 123
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=57279&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192898042 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=57280&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192898042 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=57281&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192898056
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Oct 21, 2007 10:12pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY
Here is something to think about.
I was reviewing my guidelines and was looking at the limits for Wave C projection because up to now I can not "fix" the Aqua wave 4?
BAsed on the guideline a wave c which is more than 161.8% of wave is more likely to be in an impulsive pattern rather than in a corrective pattern.
This means that if this move down exceeds 230.97 (161.8% of wave A blue ) then this is more likely to be a wave 3 which would bring us tio the tthe target range of up to 229.13
We would then see a retracement of around 38.2% up.
So now I have 2 overlapping guidelines:
the Projection for wave c in a Zigzag wave 2 and
the Retracement limit for a Zigzag wave 2
The earliest signal will be the higher than 161.8% retracement which is that of going lowe rthan 230.97
Butthe clearest signal that we are in the long term bear move is if price goes lower than 229.72
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=59330&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193019073 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=59331&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193019073
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #817
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 22, 2007 8:18am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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Quote:
Originally Posted by el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Here is something to think about.
I was reviewing my guidelines and was looking at the limits for Wave C projection because up to now I can not "fix" the Aqua wave 4?
BAsed on the guideline a wave c which is more than 161.8% of wave is more likely to be in an impulsive pattern rather than in a corrective pattern.
This means that if this move down exceeds 230.97 (161.8% of wave A blue ) then this is more likely to be a wave 3 which would bring us tio the tthe target range of up to 229.13
We would then see a retracement of around 38.2% up.
So now I have 2 overlapping guidelines:
the Projection for wave c in a Zigzag wave 2 and
the Retracement limit for a Zigzag wave 2
The earliest signal will be the higher than 161.8% retracement which is that of going lower than 230.97
Butthe clearest signal that we are in the long term bear move is if price goes lower than 229.72
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Lowest so far has been 230.31 that clears the first signal.
waiting for the second signal at 229.71 which is just 50 pips down the last low.
then I am more confident that this is going to lower than 219.31
But we should be looking at a corrective wave 4 before the long plunge.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#818
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 22, 2007 8:36am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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Based on my EW Count,
Pair is due for a corrective wave 4 which I believe was validated by the 15m pinbar that reached 230.31 on my chart.
I am looking for it to retrace towards the 38.2 - 50% of wave 3 ( 233.33 - 234.26.
But if you note on the chart I posted below 233.90 is at the 61.8% level if the move from the origin of my wave c inside the big wave B up @ 240.66
minimum target will be towards 233.33 before this proceeds with the wave 5 aqua going down to complete the blue wave 3 which is in the range of 231 - 229.16
By the way, I get reminded that I am looking forward to a wave 4 . thios means that I should also be looking at the wave 4 to end very near the level of the sub wave 4 of the previous wave 3 and this sub wave 4 of wave 3 ended at 234.42 which is between the 50% and 45% fibo retracement of wave 3.
So a better TP to look forward to is at the 50% level retracement at 234.26 for those brave enough to believe this count.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=59467&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193056358
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#819
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 22, 2007 7:16pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
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0707 Asia
GBPJPY
Based on my EW count, there is still potential to go up for this pair to complete the 5 wave impulse of the wwave c up.
Wave 4 down may still be completing.
So as this pair goes up, I will be looking towards the 38.2% level @ 233.33
Note that a Guideline I use for projecting C is by looking for the 61.8, 100 and 161.8% relationship to wave a.
looking aT THE LAST 15M CHART, we see here the 61.8 was surpassed but did not look subjectively correct to be considered as a mature retracement.
the continued expansion of the corrective weave seem near mature to go up and complete it now
And by looking and making a micro ew count down to the 1minute chart, it would look like irt is still finishing its wave 4 down on the 1minute chart.
so the wave 5 up could either land on the TP1 or go further up to TP2.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=59636&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193094973 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=59637&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193094973 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=59638&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193094993 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=59639&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193094993
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=59640&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193095007
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Oct 22, 2007 7:39pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Long Targets for GBPJPY
Based on Wave 4 Rules:
Maximum target is at the end of previous wave 1 @ 236.64. However, this is over 261.8% of wave a already for this wave c.
Like I mentioned earlier, maximum relationship between wave a and wave c is 161.8%. Meaning, wave c can only be up to 161.8% of wave a. if wave c is more than 161.8% of wave a, then this is not a corrective wave any more but an iompulse wave.....
and this means that there is a trend reversal.
However, the higher time frame has already broken the wave c to wave a relationship by exceeding 161.8% so over all the trend is still going down.
But should this relationship / guideline be violated here, then I would look at it as a development of a much bigger wave pattern for this pair to go down.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=59649&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193096318
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #821
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 22, 2007 9:25pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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Well.... my MT4 platform is not moving. but I can see from my broker which is not on mT4 that gb[jpy has already moved up.
now my dilemna is I can not see the 5 wave impulse formation of this wave 5 up for me to see if it has reached its top.
so I am throwing these charts out so who ever wants to use it can find some use for it.
I still favor a top within the 50% - 38% retracement up. But not that it is possible to be just higher than 23.6%.
This means any time soon for as long as a 5 wave impulse pattern is formed up from the wave 4 in the 1 minute chart, then this could be the top or the end of the wave 4 which is the corrective wave.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=59666&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193102558 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=59667&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193102558 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=59668&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193102574
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#822
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 22, 2007 10:45pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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My mt4 platform is still not updating. it is stuck at 231.82
My non mt4 broker already shows price at 233.10.
I am wary to trade this as I prefer to trade the SHORT Trade instead of the Long trade for now.
Just looking at the java based platform chart of gbpjpy instead of mt4, it looks like a triangle was formed for the wave 4 and now we are on our way to finishing the wave 5 of this wave c up.
move down to 232.93 to 233.12 looks like a sub wave 4 of the wave 3 up inside this wave 5.
So I will be watching this wave 5 unfold and then place my short trade.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#823
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 22, 2007 11:44pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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my mt4 is still not updating
currently using fibo group. but I also can not connect to windsor, MIG, and alpari_uk, ibfx and pfg-fx
am I the only one having this problem?
price is now at 233.28 in my non mt4 broker
I still can not decide if this is the top yet. but probably not yet since it still looks like just a wave 3
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#824
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 22, 2007 11:58pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar25165_1.gifmarketwavez
Senior Member
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif768 Posts
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Usd Chf
Longer-Term Views
----------------------------
Daily Bars ................
( Double click on chart to enlarge )
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=59703&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193111890
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#825
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 23, 2007 12:11am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
chart
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=59704&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193112659
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Oct 23, 2007 12:24am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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w4 limit was broken on the previous non mt4 chart.
am trying to see if there was already a completion of the 5 wave impulse of this wave 3 up then a smal wave 4 then wave 5 as reason for this break.
resulting to probably the continued downward movement of price.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=59705&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193113448 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=59706&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193113448 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=59707&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193113463
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #827
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 23, 2007 12:42am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
with the former wave 1 break for the wave 4 causing my count to be invalid,
attached chart has been modified following EW Rules.
It looks like we are still building up for a bigger wave c up which could have a high probability of hitting TP 2 at the 50% retracement level at 234.38
A harmonic pattern has already formed on the 15m chart with a maximum @ 233.97 which is also close to the Daily 5SMA
234.38 is also previous days HIGH.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=59710&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193114395
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#828
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 23, 2007 12:55am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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Breached again
May have to go back to previous count as what was supposed to be wave c has exceeded 161.8 relationship to wave a.
So looking at considering 233.27 as the top of wave c now.
I would consider as a confirmation for the continued move down if price breaches the secong red line which is supposed to be the End of the revised wave 1
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=59712&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193115256
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#829
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 23, 2007 1:14am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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Possibility of a truncated 5th wave
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=59717&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193116441
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#830
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 23, 2007 3:25am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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Something I noticed just now.
Coincidence?
1 hour chart shows a precise 161.8% relationship of wave c or 3 to wave a or 1.
1 minute chart also shows the same precise percentage relationship on the current wave structure.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=59739&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193124184 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=59740&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193124184
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Oct 23, 2007 7:11am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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looking at a revised wave count again.
Now seeing a leading diagonal triangle
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=59815&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193137861
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #832
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 23, 2007 7:15am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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follow up chart
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=59819&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193138114
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#833
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 23, 2007 10:14am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
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i have adjusted my EW count again.
Looking for a more suitable count to fit the rules.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=59890&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193148825 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=59891&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193148825 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=59893&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193148859
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#834
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 24, 2007 2:37am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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sorry . I got delayed posting this because was replying to some posts.
Will reverse the order of presenting charts
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60100&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193207808 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60101&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193207808 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60102&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193207830 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60103&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193207830
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60104&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193207863 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60105&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193207863
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Oct 24, 2007 4:24am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
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Current Update on GBPJPY.
I am looking at a possible retracement toward the Boxed Range for wave 4
Values of projected range using Fib retracement and extention tool in relation to EW.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60135&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193214264
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #836
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 24, 2007 4:30am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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get ready for the southern move
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60136&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193214595
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#837
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 24, 2007 4:53am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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next potential target for retracement in RED box. otherwise this will continue to go down
a bit wary because of that triangle that formed at the end of that price candlesticks
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60146&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193215973
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#838
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 24, 2007 4:57am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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continuing trend
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60149&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193216218
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#839
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 24, 2007 5:26am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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so bad. got stopped out on a trade.
it went for the 2nd level in the yellow box. or trying to get there toward 235.11
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60157&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193217944
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#840
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 24, 2007 5:37am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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adjusted 1m chart for the breakdown of wave 4
Using fib extention tool for c= a*61.8%
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60160&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193218587
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Oct 24, 2007 7:01am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Sub wave 1 of the bigger wave 5 down could be finishing in the boxed range in RED.
Then we expect a retrace up by at least 61.8%
Note FE Levels in Box
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60191&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193223649
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #842
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 24, 2007 7:55am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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revised
update
2nd chart was after that spike so had to re adjust count
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60205&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193225823 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60213&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193226889
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#843
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 24, 2007 1:35pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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on with the charts for GBPJPY
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60309&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193247305 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60310&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193247305 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60311&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193247318
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#844
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 24, 2007 3:03pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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minor adjustment and off we go to continue move northward
that shook me a bit. made a retrace for nearly 88.6% again for the wave b.
why 235.47? that is because Ihave noticed that GBPJPY like 76.4 up to 88.6 Fib Level as targets for wave 2 retracement.
Besides it is a level that is likely to fit the rules still and not invalidate the higher TF Wave 4 which must not go higher than 235.85
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60320&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193252410
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#845
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 24, 2007 3:21pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Stoploss movev to wave 2 of this move upwards around 233.48.
since we have points 0 1 and 2. and we see that price has gone over FE 100.0, this means this is a continuing impulsive wave were wave 3 is longer than wave 1 and is will not be the shortest.
have a better chance now of attaining our target.
actual limit of a possible wave 4 retrace is up to end of wave 1 @ around 233.78
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60324&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193253619
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#846
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 24, 2007 3:34pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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since wave 4 retrace seem to have been established at 233.85, this means that wave 3 is just slightly more than 100% of wave a. and if my memory has npt failed me, wave 5 target would now be around FE 176.4.
Unlike if wave 3 landed @ FE 161.8 then wave 5 will be at 261.8
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EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#847
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 24, 2007 3:38pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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unless 233.79 is breached..
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60326&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193254642
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Oct 24, 2007 3:47pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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SL was at 233.48 that is arounf the wave 2 end.
price has breached the end of wave 1. then this cannot be wave 4.
it can then be wave 2 inside the wave 3 which furthe means that this wave 3 is going to be big. and will have a better chance of targetting FE 161.8 to FE 200.0 and finally wave 5 towards 235.41 @ FE 261.8 and near the 88.6% retracement.
you can see all the fibs on my chart... that is if you know what you are looking for.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
PS
already missed bagging 50 pips because I was experimenting on the SL adjustment for trailing SL.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60328&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193255171
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #849
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 24, 2007 5:57pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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on our way up
got out eaarlier as was getting tired of waiting and getting very sleepy.
but got back in near end of 32. so still ok.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60350&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193262985
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#850
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 24, 2007 7:46pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar25165_1.gifmarketwavez
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Gbp/Usd
-----------------------------
Serious Resistance
Will Price Break through all this ?
-------------------------------------------
Double click on chart to enlarge
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60371&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193269589
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#851
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 24, 2007 8:24pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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I am still biased For my current long trade which is already down by 38 pips plus 18 pip spread.
but attaching some charts which could work out both in the short tern and most probably in the long term.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60383&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193271854 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60384&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193271854 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60385&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193271868
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EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#852
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 24, 2007 9:27pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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I have to revise the wave count for the wave 2 up.
I was looking out for a wave a subdivided into 5 waves but with the large retracement that has occurred, the next logical thing to do is to check and revise the wave count.
So now we have a 3 wave wave A and the wave B already finished... we have a better chance of going up npw to finish of this wave 2 UP.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60406&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193275656
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#853
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 24, 2007 10:30pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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update
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60427&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193279401
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EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#854
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 24, 2007 10:54pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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quite taxing to do Micro EW.
But it is fast and the experience of adjusting wave counts just to keep up is a very challenging thing to do.
it is like a marathon APPLIED EW Course ( Self Study plus help from other EW Practicioners )
Attaching new count or adjusted in the 1 minute chart. This will be valid ones 233.35is breached
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60431&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193280803
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#855
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 25, 2007 2:06am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Exited 2 live trades at a loss because I have to leave and I do not want to leave trades running when I am not around.
Back to Breakeven after increasing capital by 80% this week.
for as long as price does not go lower than 232.83. wave b of this wave 2 up is still valid based on attached chart.
whew... looks like I should truxt my counts more. anyway I have to go now. back at US session.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60463&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193292335
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Oct 25, 2007 8:07am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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entering Long trade at 234.18 area where wave 5 up for the top of wave c up of this wave 2 in this wave 5 down.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60568&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193314267
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Oct 25, 2007 8:11am Reason: add chart
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #857
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 25, 2007 8:34am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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as chart develops
Lowest was at 233.86 just a little over 86% retracement of wave 3 and in the vicinity of sub wave 4 of previous wave 3 of same degree.
Wave 2 target at 86% near 235.40
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60574&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193315340 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60576&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193315437 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60578&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193315679
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#858
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 25, 2007 8:39am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Possible wave 4 end?
then expect wave 5 going UP now to maximum of 235.85
Beyond 235.85...... my wave count is invalidated
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60581&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193315960
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#859
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 25, 2007 9:06am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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wave 2 retrace of wave 1 and back going UP
or 127.0 @ 234.09?
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60587&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193317594
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#860
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 25, 2007 9:19am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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Wave 53 or wave 3 projection is between FE 161.8 to 200.00
In this case I will use another technique where a previous retracement of 61.8% will yield a projection of FE 176.4
So first TP is at 235.20 then we expect a retracement for wave 54 or wave 4.
We will see percentage of retracement from there and then project wave 55.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60590&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193318342
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Oct 25, 2007 9:56am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Southern Trip from here on.
I failed to recognized limits of each wave earlier. I think I made a mistake.
I still have a long way to go learning EW.
Note how wave 3 and wave 5 projections using the fib extention tool still falls within expected range as we use Points 0 1 and 2
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60598&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193320561
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Oct 26, 2007 4:45am
HonaForex
UPPARA TRADER
Member Since Dec 2006
314 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Swissy ........long
Swissy worth going long with risk of 50 pips..........here is my chart & we r in wave 3 i believe.....
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60883&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193388311
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Oct 26, 2007 3:25pm
money
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif USD-JPY
Quote:
Originally Posted by el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Glad to see you posting your counts again money. keep them coming. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
I have a question re your chart. I am missing something on your wave B Black on the lower right corner of your chart.
Your wave 2 is lower than your wave 1 origin. If you think usdjpy in your chart is on an uptrend, then wave 2 must not go lower than wave 1 red origin.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Hello EG,
tnx for helping me on Elliot Wave, couse i know that together we know a lot more. You said that there is somethnig missing on wave B-black. Maybe you thought that are missing 1,2,3,4,5, that i writte down in new picture. I also changed my pattern a-b-c (i change it, couse trend line was not broken) from wave 5 in B-black, to the wave 1 of the Big wave 2. And now the small wave 2 from 2 is not lower,than B-black if you thought this.
new picture,----------------------------------tnx againhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/winking.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=61062&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193426522
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #872
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 26, 2007 5:36pm
HonaForex
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Member Since Dec 2006
314 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif El
Unless you are showing as that you expect price to reach that 100% level in relation to a Hi-Lo Range you base it on.
Yes u r right I expect market to move inaccordance to wave 1 fibos & most of time its good to aim our target
shivaji
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#873
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 28, 2007 9:40pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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Quote:
Originally Posted by money http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Hello EG,
tnx for helping me on Elliot Wave, couse i know that together we know a lot more. You said that there is somethnig missing on wave B-black. Maybe you thought that are missing 1,2,3,4,5, that i writte down in new picture. I also changed my pattern a-b-c (i change it, couse trend line was not broken) from wave 5 in B-black, to the wave 1 of the Big wave 2. And now the small wave 2 from 2 is not lower,than B-black if you thought this.
new picture,----------------------------------tnx againhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/winking.gif
Hey money.
When I said I was missing, I actually meant I could not understand or I felt it did not fit into the rules so Maybe I was wrong or I was missing or not seeing something you were seeing and that is why you labelled it that way.
Sorry for getting you confused with my english.
But to go back to that B wave of yours,
This is only assumming that your current count direction is correct..... (coz my mind has somehow blocked off making counts for other pairs as detailed as I do on the gbpjpy (which I assume that my count could still be full of mistakes )
a B wave is a corrective wave so it is normally in a 3 wave subdivision. 12345 labels are for impulse or motive waves that follow 3 basic rules ( wave 2 does not go beyond wave 1 origin, wave 3 is never the shortest among waves 1 3 and 5. and lastly that wave 4 does not go beyond wave 1 end or into the wave 2 price territory.)
So your wave B must be divided into 3 waves only not 5.
A corrective wave that is subdivided into 5 waves needs to be a triangle:
Diagonal (A) 53535
Diagonal (C) 33333
Symmetrical - Contracting (B)
Symmetrical - Expanding (B)
I hope this helps.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
PS.
Offhand, your 12345 inside your black wave A could be right. but you should put the end of your magenta zigzag on your wave 5 end and not on your red 2 of your "B" Black.
then you could probably have a small "a" red instead of the small 3 red, then a small b red instead of a small 4 red. and your small 5 red change to small c red. For your Black Wave B.
On the other hand your 12345 could also be correct but this could be the smal " A" wave instead of that "B" Black wave on your chart.
as you can see , your x is lower than your current smal wave 5 red. So we can not make your current black wave B stand or be valid as a Wave B end. Otherwise the beginning of your wave c will not be valid.
So I propose that your current Black B wave to be changed to Wave "A" followed by zigzag abc for your new Wave B black. then yur "x" as the wave 1 in your wave c down.
If it gets more confusing for you , please disregard....
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Oct 28, 2007 10:29pm
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#874
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 29, 2007 1:09am
pips4life
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Member Since Apr 2007
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Hi EG,
I have been working hard to learn EW counts. I just finished my first read through the "Elliott Wave Principle" by Frost & Prechter, and now I'm applying what I know so far. Getting the counts right for extended waves, etc. is rather tricky.
As the joke goes, if you put 12 EW traders in a room, you'll get 13 possible EW counts... http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/winking.gif No doubt there is some subjectivity to it, but the closest true count would be one that meets the most rules.
I've put a lot of thought into the last 4 years of GJ and would appreciate any feedback. Have I followed the rules? Is my scenario plausible? I say were in a big C-wave down now, which usually subdivides into a 5-count wave. My 1st target is 213.50, 2nd less likely target is as low as ~206. Yes, those are big falls from here, but considering the big challenges facing the USD and subprime mess, I believe it could happen.
Since UJ usually closely follows GJ, I suspect I will find somewhat similar EW counts but I haven't tackled that yet.
I did a previous count for GU which suggested it may have peaked in July and now it's ready for a big move down, but I did that before I read the book. If GU is about to go down, that adds weight to GJ falling also.
Please comment... and thanks in advance.
Pips4life
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Oct 29, 2007 6:51am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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pips4life....
let me continue with me reply to your query earlier..
"I've put a lot of thought into the last 4 years of GJ and would appreciate any feedback. Have I followed the rules? Is my scenario plausible? I say were in a big C-wave down now, which usually subdivides into a 5-count wave. My 1st target is 213.50, 2nd less likely target is as low as ~206. Yes, those are big falls from here, but considering the big challenges facing the USD and subprime mess, I believe it could happen.
***You could probably be right while I could be wrong about this. Your current wave 5 up which is the 251.07 high on my chart is just my wave 3.
I will explain further below after this post."
I think it is important that you check your wave counts of higher time frame than what you were just looking at. I am assuming that your wave count was only up to the daily. ( please correct me if I am wrong )
The fact that your wave count shows that you already have a wave 5 on your chart ( which I assume is a daily chart ) then you follow it up with an ABC wave, then that means you still expect the price to go higher than the previous 251.07..... This would bring you to considering the whole 5 wave move from Sept 2000 @ 148.19 low to July 2007 @ 251.07 to be just the first sub wave of a bigger wave 3.
But if you look at the monthly chart below, I have labelled my chart as to how I see the EW Count is on the monthly chart. You will see that I consider price now as being a part of an unfinished flat corrective wave.
Why do I think we are in a flat corrective wave? It is because I consider the wave 2 you see in the chart as a sharp zigzag. And by the rule of alternation, wave 4 must be a complex sideways corrective wave.... thus the flat corrective wave expectation for this wave 4.
Moving further, since I consider this as a flat corrective wave, then by looking at the chart again, we can see that it is possible that we have already finished the wave A and the Wave B and that price now is basically trying to complete the Wave C in the monthly chart.
Then I go to the guideline I have compiled where C is said to be related to A by the following Percentages: 61.8%, 100%, and 161.8%
So far, we will note that price has already gone higher than the 61.8% FE Level.
Now we have to check if this wave C up has completed 5 waves. We also have to note size proportion of the waves.
Here is where I am struggling to find the correct wave count on the GBPJPY.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
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__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Oct 29, 2007 11:27pm Reason: spelling edit
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#880
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 29, 2007 8:00am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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Here is an option for the weekly Count.
Still trying to fit the waves into the rules.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
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__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS