hefeiddd 发表于 2009-4-10 15:33

Nov 4, 2007 7:47pm
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Coincidence?
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63528&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194223618   

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EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 4, 2007 8:35pm
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IS this the AHA for the Day?

Well, it is my Aha for the Day.

I hope we all make good Pips today

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63533&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194226454   http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63534&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194226454   http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63535&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194226475   http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63536&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194226475



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EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALL




Nov 4, 2007 9:15pm
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other considerations
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63543&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194228971   

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EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


Last edited by el grande, Nov 4, 2007 9:16pm Reason: sorry . I missed the chart




Nov 4, 2007 10:59pm
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30 min and 1 hour stochs are coming down. Attached chart is proposed current wave count and Price direction.

I would wait for 15min stoch to go up prior to entering a short trade.

Or I can just sit this one out and allow my long trade to have this drawdown and wait for my old shorttrade to turn green or cut my losses there.

approximate targets are
237.97
237.38
236.50
235.47
234.18

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63568&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194235138   http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63569&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194235138   

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EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1033   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 4, 2007 11:04pm
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Cancelled all my Buy Limit Trades because I am leaving this afternoon so I will not be able to watch my charts.

Happy trading everyone.

I am going to miss the Frankfurt and London Open. Too bad.

I would have loved testing the wave counts specially towrd and during that session.

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
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#1034   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 5, 2007 12:13am
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still possible. but just watching.

237.46 is 200EMA on 1hour chart
239.07 on the 15min chart

New Hi_Lo range of Previous day is 240.29 - 237.64

Price starting to go and breakout of the 15min Ichimoku cloud on 15min Chart

Bouncing on the 100SMA on15min chart too

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63574&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194239280   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


hefeiddd 发表于 2009-4-10 15:35

Nov 5, 2007 7:18am
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A Zigzag wave 4 set-up played out from the London session.

Levels to watch now

237.35 FE 161.8 Level from Leg A could be followed by a 38% retracement up then continue down

To Sub wave 5 @ 235.92 FE 261.8 Levbel Internal Swing in the Sub wave C

or possibly 236.50 as C = A from the end of Wave 3 @ 241.35

236.96 Monthly Pivot
236.85 Monthly 5SMA
236.65 Daily Support 3

235.35 Weekly S1
Oscillators are at Oversold levels now till 15 min chart

Bullish Harmonic Pattern on the 1hour chart

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63646&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194264771   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 5, 2007 3:42pm
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Sorry I was not able to join you all for the US session. I was just too tired last night when I came in. (Asia Time)

4am here now. Watch out. this could be almost wave 4 up which is a retracement of the wave 3 down.

So another leg down might be in the offing to finish off this wave 5 down of the wave c down of the wave 4 down.

Then we may continue flying to the moon to finish off the wave 5 UP of the wave 3 up.

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


Last edited by el grande, Nov 5, 2007 3:57pm
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#1041   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 5, 2007 3:56pm
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Possible price direction now.

Got trapped in the Ichimoku cloud.

Facing resistance at the Weekly Pivot.

Based on a Possible wave count, this is supposed to be a wave 4 up with a maximum retracement towards 238.71

If it goes higher, most likely we are back on the Bull trend and is now on the wave stretch to the top.

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63771&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194295708   

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EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1042   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 5, 2007 4:03pm
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Could still go up to 238.65.

Price facing resistance most likely @ 238.65 where 100 SMA and 100EMA for 15min charts converge.

and EW likely targets for Wave 4 based on Fib levels. see new chart details .

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63775&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194296583   

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EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1043   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 5, 2007 4:22pm
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Using a higher TF chart.... we can see the waves possibly developing as such seen on this chart from afar.

Those are the probable targets based on different reference points of projections.

We now see our oscillators turning down from over bought levels and price hitting the top edge of a downward channel.

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63776&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194297716   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS




Nov 5, 2007 6:05pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Warning - Do not be misled by my Wave 3 Chart
Warning - Do not be misled by my Wave 3 Chart on GBPJPY

I hope that nobody gets misled by my Wave 3 Chart General Direction for GBPJPY.

Bear in mind that after a Wave 3 comes a Wave 4 which could be a retracement of 38.2% to 50% or even 61.8% of the current wave 3.

So depending on the Wave 3 degree, expect a retracement wave 4 of the same degree based on the percentages above.

We can still make money trading the smaller waves inside this bigger wave degrees.

Do not trade using my charts if you do not understand the rudiments of EW Counting. Retracements could send you pressing your Panic buttons to exit trades prematurely.


EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63792&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194303896   

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EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1046   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 5, 2007 6:35pm
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Reviewing past charts I posted with regards to analysis of Potential wave turns... I go back to the chart where I was still deciding whether perice was in a sub wave 2 of a wave 5 up or was it stil at a sub wave b of a wave 4 corrective wave.

See chart below.

Then check the chart above this post which should have validated the Bear move . there signs on this 2nd chart to have signalled a Bearish direction.

1. zigzag Wave A down
2. the 3 part sub wave a of wave B
3. the Expanded flat corrective wave of the subwaveb of wave B - (this I think is very rare that you see it fit the expanded wave definition and fib retracement and projections.)
4. the ending diagonal wave for that sub wave c
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63795&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194305336   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

hefeiddd 发表于 2009-4-10 15:35

Nov 5, 2007 10:55pm
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Wave 2 retracement nullified.

wave 4 not finished yet?

Looking at the 15 min chart now instead of the 5min and we see a potential completion of a triangle.


What are the implications of this triangle:

1. that we are nearing the end of a wave
2. that the next leg down which would now just be the Wave C might follow the C= A Guideline at 61.8, 100 and 161.8

However we also have to take into consideration the limits for this wave 4 retracement down.

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63842&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194321233   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1053   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 5, 2007 11:01pm
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238.71 breached

looking at a most likely return to a Bull Trend

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif

also looking at price action as it nears 5Daily SMA and the 240 EMA on the 15min chart.

But oscillators are at over bought levels now
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63844&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194321631   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1054   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 5, 2007 11:17pm
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new point of reference for a potential move downwards.

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63847&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194322646   

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EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1055   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 5, 2007 11:59pm
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Price has already gone above the 15min Ichimoku cloud and is trying to reach 239.03 athe Murrey Math (4/8 Level) which is a strong Support and Resistance Level.

Aside from this as you can see on the abobe chart and also as somebody else has pointed out There is a downward trendline that price is trying to breach. That trendline starts from Nov 2.

Observe too price action on the 15min chart and you will see that price is forming Ca
ndlesticks which have longer wicks than their bodies which could mean that Buyers are trying to grab the market but are being pushed back by the Bears.

Frankfurt and London Sessions are nearing .

Let us wait which one they favor.

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63852&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194325315   http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63853&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194325497   

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EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


Last edited by el grande, Nov 6, 2007 12:05am Reason: chart added, more charts
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#1056   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 6, 2007 12:34am
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I had 2 Long Trades and 2 short trades.

I am letting go of 1 long trade infavor of my 2 short trades now.

Closed a long trade for 50 pips loss which included an 18 pip spread and a bonus 4 pip swap. Net Loss was 50 pips.

maintaining 1 long trade which is at -76 pips now. Will nurse that while staying on my short trades which are both still on the negative too @ -56 and -90.

I prefer or am bias short for now looking at the wave C down of this wave 4 down.. retracement of Wave 3.

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
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EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1057   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 6, 2007 12:44am
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I may have exited that Long trade a bit early.

But this some how looks good for my other Long trade as a Potential Bearish Gartley is forming on the 15 min chart.

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1058   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 6, 2007 2:33am
carforum
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hi eg,

This is my count for GJ.... I have entered on pin bar at 237.62 and now considering exit half or exit all of my trades, since I think this is subwave 1 of Wave 5, please see my chart!!!
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63868&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194334265   

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#1059   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 6, 2007 3:58am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by carforum http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
hi eg,

This is my count for GJ.... I have entered on pin bar at 237.62 and now considering exit half or exit all of my trades, since I think this is subwave 1 of Wave 5, please see my chart!!!

Nice going there Carman..

Thank you for sharing your chart with us.

I was working on my charts the past hour and when I checked the 1horuchart, I found that I may need to adjust my counts. Now your charts are more like it. Where we now both have a wave 3 top 241.35

But I still have my doubts as to the finish of our wave 4 down.

My thoughts are that it is still possible for another leg down to finish near a C = A x ( almost 100 ). Price has achieved C = A x 78.6 there abouts if we look at that wave 4 of yours.

BTW, Thank youfor mentioning your Pin Bar Triggers for Entry on the 1 hour. I will see and would most probably be incorporating that in my tool box for trading.

What are those Yellow, Red, Blue and Black Lines on your chart?

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif

PS
a Bearish Harmonic Wave has already reached its maximum formation on the 15 min chart.

Oscillators are really overbought

You just might get your new Pinbar for this hour...
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63885&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194339405   

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EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1060   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 6, 2007 4:45am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
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Attached is the Chart I posted earlier.

Monday was a downturn instead of up trend since the expanded Flat wave 4 did not materialize.

However, wave 4 seemed to have turned into a more complex wave or into a bigger breath of corrective wave by expanding sideways.

Now I am looking at this going down from 239.59 on my chart most likely towards 235.81 which is the maximum for this wave 4 to dip.

If it goes lower than 235.81, then we are probably back to the Bear trend.

But as it goes down, following levels are to watch out for as levels of resistance:

238.41 - 1hr 100 EMA
238.35 - Weekly and Daily Pivot
236.95 - Monthly Pivot and the Daily S1
235.75 - Daily S2
235.35 - Weekly S1
234.38 - Daily S3

If price were to close now, a bearish engulfing candle will be seen on the 1hour chart hugging a Pin Bar.

Then a Pin Bar is almost forming in the 4hour chart.

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63905&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194342469   http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63906&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194342469   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


Last edited by el grande, Nov 6, 2007 4:48am Reason: add charts
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#1061   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 6, 2007 5:09am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
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Price action on the 30min and the 1hour charts.

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63910&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194343761   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


hefeiddd 发表于 2009-4-10 15:44

Nov 6, 2007 5:56am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
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all 5 TF Price action and Fibos

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63918&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194346528   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1067   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 6, 2007 6:10am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006

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Pin Bars

How about these 2 charts Carman?

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63920&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194347372   http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63921&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194347372   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1068   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 6, 2007 6:25am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Carman..

Your wave 4 on my chart narrowly missed the 50% retracement of wave 3 by just 1 pip. 50% is at 237.07 and my wave 4 low is at 237.08.

Just 1 pip.

Now whether it it goes more than 50% or not... the fact that it narrowly missed the 50% level...

add the fact that 30min and the 1hour stochs are at over bought levels while the 4hour stoch is still at 62.... for me nothing is still definite.

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63925&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194348307   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1069   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 6, 2007 6:35am
hasfa007
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1 Posts

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon5.gif elliot wave analysis
hello EG your analysis of EW is an interesting one.unfortunately for me my knowledge of this theory is a very shallow one,Is there a way you can still ?
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#1070   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 6, 2007 6:38am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Carman...

You are probably correct that we are now in Wave 5.

15min chart shows a 4 wave divison with a potential wave 5 nearing completion.

Based on the rule of wave equality, we may have the wave 1 = wave 5 now since wave 3 is 161.8% of Wave 1.

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63927&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194349072   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1071   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 6, 2007 6:46am
carforum
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Member Since May 2006

35 Posts

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Quote:
Originally Posted by el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Pin Bars

How about these 2 charts Carman?

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif

I haven't entered at these 2 pins, because I am still waiting for target, but I have close half at 238.89 already..
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63929&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194349605   

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#1072   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 6, 2007 7:05am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Pls disregard above chart. wrong point of references for the FIB extention tool.

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63934&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194350693   http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63935&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194350693   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

hefeiddd 发表于 2009-4-10 15:45

Nov 6, 2007 7:11am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Proposed Route incase the Guideline for Wave Equality Plays out.

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63938&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194351108   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1074   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 6, 2007 7:13am
carforum
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Member Since May 2006

35 Posts

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Eg,
We are now in the same count, hope we reach the target soon!!! http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
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#1075   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 6, 2007 7:52am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,792 Posts

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif I find this Interesting
Exploring Elliott Waves Further and Tracking Price Probable Routes.

I hope to get back to this next week or by the end of this week and see how price actually turns out with its route.

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63942&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194353477   http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63943&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194353477   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1076   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 6, 2007 8:05am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Must not breach 239.31 to be a valid wave 4.

Then it goes up to 239.75 before coming down for the Wave 4 in the 1 hour chart.

Check your charts how price bounced off that breaching limit so as not to invalidate the wave count.

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Imageshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63948&stc=1&d=1194354475

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1077   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 6, 2007 8:38am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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While waiting for this wave 5 on the 15min chart to play out, I tried coming up with a Price Route up to the Daily.

This somehow lines up with my projections from the monthly chart.

As to how long it is expected to play out IF EVER IT DOES..... we will just have to keep riding the waves.

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63955&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194356262   http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63956&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194356262   http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63957&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194356292   http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63958&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194356292

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63959&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194356306   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

hefeiddd 发表于 2009-4-10 15:46

Nov 6, 2007 11:18am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kenneith http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Bro you mean it is going to go up again towards 240?
thanks

there are 2 possible scenarios here.

1. Because we are supposed to be in a wave 4 which normally is a complex or a sideways moving wave as in expanding, then it is likely that price will range till tomorrow ( 239.54 - 238.42 ).

2. Alternatively, we could also be in a new Wave 5 going up towards 240.07 or 240.30.

Do not rely on this for your trades. validate with your own system.

Preferably advised to trade on DEMO account only.

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=64009&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194365924   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1085   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 6, 2007 11:27am
kenneith
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Member Since Oct 2007

218 Posts

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Thanks mate. but according to indicators it is supposed to go down, but what do i know? i could be wrong as well.
thanks Quote:
Originally Posted by el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
there are 2 possible scenarios here.

1. Because we are supposed to be in a wave 4 which normally is a complex or a sideways moving wave as in expanding, then it is likely that price will range till tomorrow ( 239.54 - 238.42 ).

2. Alternatively, we could also be in a new Wave 5 going up towards 240.07 or 240.30.

Do not rely on this for your trades. validate with your own system.

Preferably advised to trade on DEMO account only.

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif


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#1086   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 6, 2007 11:29am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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retrace to 238.53 possibly prior to p[roceeding towards 240.

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Imageshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=64013&stc=1&d=1194366566

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1087   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 6, 2007 11:41am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Price Action
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=64016&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194367281   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1088   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 6, 2007 11:53am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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For as long as it does not go lower than 238.39, next target is wave 33 Yellow @ 242.61.

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=64017&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194367981   http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=64018&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194367981   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS





Nov 6, 2007 12:21pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Looks like our charts will come thru for us.

Asian Time:
Friday Plunge happened and by Friday night it recovered towards Monday or your Sunday Open.

Asian Monday saw a slight move up during the opening but saw GBPJPY falling for teh rest of the day which went into Asian Tuesday.

As forecasted, Wednesday in Asia will see GBPJPY start to Rally.

If this charts work out and we do see GBPJPY climbing to 242.61, Then I would say Elliott Waves do help us pinpoint potential set-ups for a currency pair.

At least this is how we are seeing it on GBPJPY.

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=64028&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194369513   http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=64029&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194369513   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

hefeiddd 发表于 2009-4-10 17:52

Nov 6, 2007 3:05pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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gggrrrrr...... exited too early.

waiting for a retrace to 238.75

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Imageshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=64064&stc=1&d=1194379579

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1097   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 6, 2007 3:13pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006

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Or Price could be in for a retracement towards 238.56 (78.6%) or to 238.51 ( 85% ) for a sub wave 2down of the wave 5 UP.

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Imageshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=64066&stc=1&d=1194380018

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1098   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 6, 2007 3:21pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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too bad. it is probably not comimng back down now.

most typical of a potential strong wave 3 when we see our oscillators turning over bought and expecting a turn back yet price keeps on going up.

Have entered , just one new trade at 238.38 ( forward trade which is about 98 pips less than what you get for your values on the MT4 Platform).

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1099   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 6, 2007 3:47pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Here is what I think I over-looked.

So I am leaving my 2 current Long trades to run now.

And will try to get some sleep. almost 5 am here now and things will probably start moving again when Asian Markets Open.

Good Trading to all of you. I hope you made good pips with our Elliott Wave Counts for today.

I think we basically traded against what many were thinking.

Let us see how much more our EW Counts will turn out to fit the actual Price Route.

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=64074&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194381794   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1100   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 6, 2007 3:59pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006

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Note that :

Weekly R1 is @ 242.37.
Murrey Math Level (8/8) @ 243.75
Weekly R2 and Murrey Math Level ( +1/8 ) @ 245.37 Looking nice for my Long trades http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif But may not be that fast. I will need to re-work some of my counts though later because of the truncated 5th wave we have ( I think). We will se if it has affected the overall count.

Let us see where the Daily S and R will be later and also the the Fibonacci Breakout Levels from a Daily Range later.

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1101   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 6, 2007 6:20pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006

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Update:

Good Morning Everyone. Now back to the Drawing Board.

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=64121&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194391158   http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=64122&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194391158   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1102   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 6, 2007 7:17pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,792 Posts

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Retracement
I do not see any significant retracement coming till we reach 242.61

I am tempted to load another Long trade But I am keeping myself in check.

2 Long trades to run should be fine. There are still other days and new opportunities to trade.

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1103   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 6, 2007 8:02pm
pips4life
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195 Posts

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I'm not that good at predictions, so with that in mind... to me it feels like we're right on the edge, and it's starting to turn bearish for GJ/UJ/GU (all three).

Some people think there's more upside for GU, and if they're right, that will pull up GJ, and GJ will pull up UJ because it follows the pattern more-or-less, just a lot less than GJ does (because if GU is up, G is up more so, relative to U).


I've talked about Fibo Retracement lines used as forward-looking projections. Here's a Weekly GU chart. Note where I've circled towards the start of each set of Fibo lines. That's the basis for the entire 5-wave. Note how twice it hit the 100% target lines. Now, we're in big Wave-5 (Are we Sub 5 or Sub 3? That's the big question). The start of this 5 was tentative, hence the first Wave 1 &2 are small, so the 61.8% line is lower than the others. In such cases, I would expect it to pick up steam and exceed 100%, and it does.

If the current high is the peak, it's at around the -61.8% line. Obviously this line can vary up or down 100-200 pips based on the somewhat subjective placement of the Fibo lines. But I attempt to be as "objective" as possible, to fit the price action as the 5-wave unfolds, and it's at a reasonable placement now. (There are other's that are "reasonable" too, but which may end at the same price if one considers -44.0% or -27.0% or -18.0% as the final target, which they often are).

One must find confluence with other S/R levels. So then, also note the several trendlines in the picture. Connect past key highs and lows as I did, and you'll see a big confluence of several TL's coming together right where the current GU has peaked. It will have to break several of those TL's to move upwards.

Remember my hypothetical BIG GJ C-wave down, but what would have been Wave-2 retraced too high, above Wave 1 of C. You took this as a long sign, and perhaps it is. But perhaps it's an expanded flat and we'll see a big down wave?? UJ is very similar to a regular flat right now.

Either way, the indecisiveness of price action tells there is a struggle going on (as always I guess... lol).
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=64143&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194397321   

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#1104   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 6, 2007 11:18pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Wave Expanding sideways. Most likely a corrective FLAT wave.

Likely to end in the area of 238.40.

Invalid once it goes lower than 238.39

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=64183&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194409067   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1105   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 7, 2007 12:45am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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instead of expanding sideways for a corrective flat, we may be seeing the finish of a sub wave 2 of the wave 5 UP.

Note the 85% retracement common with wave 2s.

Count proposed is invalid if price goes lower than 238.39

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=64196&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194414299   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1106   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 7, 2007 12:56am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006

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FLAT corrective ?
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=64199&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194414991   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1107   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 7, 2007 1:10am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006

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or a possible revised wave count on the hourly.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=64201&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194415805   http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=64202&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194415805   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1108   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 7, 2007 1:14am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006

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1 more leg down on the 1min chart and then we should be back on our long trades.

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=64203&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194416315   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


Last edited by el grande, Nov 7, 2007 1:18am Reason: add chart
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#1109   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 7, 2007 1:24am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006

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must not exceed 238.99 for a valid wave 4 pull back. Otherwise we are back to the long trade.

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Imageshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=64204&stc=1&d=1194416648

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1110   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 7, 2007 1:26am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,792 Posts

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
pushed back by daily pivot
Attached Imageshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=64206&stc=1&d=1194416779

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


hefeiddd 发表于 2009-4-10 17:53

Nov 7, 2007 1:30am
I Wanna Trade
Member
Member Since May 2007

34 Posts

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Hey all,

Looks like the USD/JPY has started its 3rd wave decline as I had in my count that I posted a few days ago (see chart again below). This is weighing down on the GBP/JPY and probably won't allow it to make a new significant high above 240.28 unless there's a very large correction in the USD/JPY overnight here. The GBP/USD should rally into the rate decision then reverse sharply, along with all USD pairs as the dollar should start a large reversal. GBP/JPY looked to be completing a very complex correction so I've been waiting for signals from the USD/JPY of when it would break to the downside in wave 3. Will look to aggressively short the GBP/JPY prior to Thursday's BOE rate decision as that should ignite the GBP/JPY's wave 3 decline. The full decline should eventually test 230.28 and possibly 219.29 in a wave 5.

-Todd
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=64205&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194416684   

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1112   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 7, 2007 1:34am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,792 Posts

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Possible wave 5 finished and also new wave 1 up.

Checking wave 2 pull back by 78.6% to 85% before entering new long trade here.

Eghttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Imageshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=64209&stc=1&d=1194417288

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1113   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 7, 2007 2:01am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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1 min chart. 1 more chance for my long trade?
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=64213&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194418863   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1114   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 7, 2007 2:17am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006

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Ok. I broke my rule. I was suppose to wait for a 78.6 to 85% retracement as new signal for a wave 2 end.

But ended entering a long trade @ 237.81 Forward trade which is 98 pips less than your MT4 Platform values.

Why did I enter earlier?

It is because I was studying the structure of what looked like a wave 2 that was forming.

Subjectively perhaps, I observed that it was like developing a sideways expanding wave instead of the usual zigzagfor a wave 2. Consolidation was building up and the whole retrace was already at 61.8 on my mt4 chart.

well now... I know I was wrong as it has retraced more than 100%

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1115   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 7, 2007 2:24am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006

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I need to always keep in mind that all timeframes dance to the same music.

the lower timeframes just do it faster yet follow the same rules and these waves in the lower timeframes make up the sam type of waves in the higher timeframes.

More like reading numbers... if you know what I mean..

Currently all trades on the red.

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1116   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 7, 2007 2:51am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,792 Posts

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RED and Magenta Wave Counts are now invalid because price went lower than 238.39

Wave 4 over lapping with Wave 1 Magenta.

Now looking for exit to extricate my long trades with minimal loss.

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=64218&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194421841   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1117   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 7, 2007 3:33am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,792 Posts

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Possible count I am working on now.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=64233&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194424375   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1118   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 7, 2007 4:00am
carforum
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35 Posts

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Quote:
Originally Posted by el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Possible count I am working on now.

Same count here, have been buy @238.60 1 hr pin bar!!! http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gifhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
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#1119   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 7, 2007 4:18am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by carforum http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Same count here, have been buy @238.60 1 hr pin bar!!! http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gifhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif


Good for you Carman. I am still nursing 3 red long trades. although the last I enterd is slowly getting near the surface....http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif

That is what I get for breaking my own rules.

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif

PS.

Let us see if we get our sub wave 1 at the level of previous sub wave 4 @ 238.84 level
Attached Imageshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=64238&stc=1&d=1194427346

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


Last edited by el grande, Nov 7, 2007 4:22am Reason: chart
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#1120   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 7, 2007 4:45am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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missed to close 1 long for -1 pip net.
hesitated to pull trigger

Now I will probably have to ride this out till 237 MT4 at he daily S2 and the Monthly Pivot.
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1121   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 7, 2007 5:14am
carforum
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35 Posts

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Quote:
Originally Posted by carforum http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Same count here, have been buy @238.60 1 hr pin bar!!! http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gifhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif

have been stop out, ouch!! After read I wannt trade post, will step out (no trade) for a moment and let's see what happen
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#1122   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 7, 2007 6:00am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,792 Posts

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by carforum http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
have been stop out, ouch!! After read I wannt trade post, will step out (no trade) for a moment and let's see what happen

sorry to hear about that.

am still in. SL @ 300 per trade.

Current wave development.

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=64265&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194433198   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1123   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 7, 2007 6:10am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,792 Posts

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Let us test n demo trade the
1. 50% - 61.8 ( prev sub wave 4 ) retrace as sub wave 1
2. Pull back/down as Wave 2 ( 78.6% - 85% )
3. Beginning os sub wave 3 at sub wave 2 end

Or maybe observe this....

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Imageshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=64267&stc=1&d=1194433789

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1124   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 7, 2007 9:06am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,792 Posts

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back to the board.

Here is my current proposed count after that large retracement.

The required complex sideways expanding wave finally played out.

It was not a corrective flat nor an irregular/expanding flat. But it was a Zigzag connected by an X wave to an expanded Flat Corrective wave.

If this wave 4 inside wave 33 is finished , then price will continue going up to the 241 - 247 area.

Final level will still be affected by the internal swings of the wave development of wave 35 yellow.

But the 241- 247 is the range based on projections from different reference points.

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif

Exited 2 of the long trades for quite a number of pips. one near the bottom of this move and the other as price started to retrace back up.

I did not realize the combination of zigzag and expanded flat yet when I exited the trades. But I was concerned with preserving my capital or what was left of it.

instead of being able to do 3 trades, I am back to just 2 trades.

My SL was enough till 235, but I decided to cut the losses and trade another day.

Several mistakes I made today were adding on to trade without checking the EW on the different timeframes, I was focused on the Oscillator.

Next was pulling the trigger when to exit an undecided trade even if it was on the losing side.

Anyway, Total loss for the day is 346 pips on 2 trades. I am letting the last Long trade stay.

hhhmmmmm..... if I waited a little longer or if I spotted that complex wave there before I exited my trade, by now, I would almost be back to recovering that drawdown.. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif

Price bounced off
Daily Support 2,
Monthly Pivot
Weekly 5SMA

I should have realized that too. Quite a thick layer of Support there.

I'll take a rest tonight.

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif

You were better off than me Carman for getting stopped out that early.

I chickened out of my system.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=64313&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194444278   http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=64314&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194444278   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


hefeiddd 发表于 2009-4-10 17:54

Nov 7, 2007 2:37pm
money
Multiple Usernames
Member Since Jul 2007

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/1kt.gif106 Posts

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif USD-JPY
usd/jpy Elliot on month mnth and daily chart
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=64402&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194463981   http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=64404&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194464129   

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1127   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 7, 2007 8:50pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,792 Posts

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/surprise.gif Whew. Boy am I glad I closed those trades last night. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif

and increased my SL on the remaining one before I went to bed. That was a huge drawdownlike doubled while I was sleeping http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/big_grin.gif.

Anyway, since I am still learning this EW, it is thus best to use large SLs on LIVE trades so as to have more room while being able to work around ones capital. and have less trades. So that if things turn the otherway, it won't hurt that much. ( but it is still hurts http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/blushing.gif ).

But need to move on and pick up my books and see what I missed here.

My maximum drawdown for a wave 4 to still be valid was at 235.81. Bottom of that last move was 235.09.

Have to re-work my count again. I apologize to all those following this thread. Time to hit the books. It is quite hard to get a mentor for free so I have to work this oout on my own and hopefully others who post their charts here will continue to post.

This is I believe what most EW Practitioners get nightmares on. That is when they get their counts wrong. But if we practice good Money management, I think we will average out in a profit still.

I am posting my counts and why I chose to label them that way because it forces me to study and learn from others too. If I am right, then good. But if I am wrong, then I have to study some more.

Practicing will help me improve in this.

Thanks FxMt for the morale support.

To Pips4life for his programming skills and his extar ordinary thoughts on ways to analyze wave structure,

To Carman, money, I Wanna Trade, marketwavez, who share their thoughts and their charts.

Keep them coming my friends....

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1128   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 7, 2007 10:23pm
I Wanna Trade
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Member Since May 2007

34 Posts

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Hey all,

Money is using the same chart I did where I developed my original bearish bias on the USD/JPY since the decline from 124.13 and I saw an entry point once the correction occurred after Wave 1 to 111.58. The terminal thrust from the triangle Money posted could test 101.00. Thanks for posting that chart Money. This extreme bearish trend will drag down the GBP/JPY. Plus, as I said yesterday, the GBP/USD is due for a large reversal as all moment indicators have been in extremes for some time now and are showing divergence (RSI, Stochs.). The dollar is due to rally at any time, and I feel that some news in the either the ECB or BOE rate decisions tomorrow morning will trigger the GBP/USD to reverse and head down sharply. When the USD/JPY and the GBP/USD go down together, the GBP/JPY will follow. The correction GBP/JPY was completing was complex, but I have a possible count which I put in the chart. Like I've said before, like the USD/JPY, the GBP/JPY and the EUR/JPY for that matter, are on their way to test and break through their August lows. If I'm right that the GBP/JPY just completed a failed 5th wave, then it would might be a good idea to get aggressively short right now, or once it tests the top of the channel ahead of the rate decisions to catch the huge reversal coming.

Regards,

Todd
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=64509&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194491936   

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#1129   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 7, 2007 11:19pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006

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Quote:
Originally Posted by I Wanna Trade http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Hey all,

Money is using the same chart I did where I developed my original bearish bias on the USD/JPY since the decline from 124.13 and I saw an entry point once the correction occurred after Wave 1 to 111.58. The terminal thrust from the triangle Money posted could test 101.00. Thanks for posting that chart Money. This extreme bearish trend will drag down the GBP/JPY. Plus, as I said yesterday, the GBP/USD is due for a large reversal as all moment indicators have been in extremes for some time now and are showing divergence (RSI, Stochs.). The dollar is due to rally at any time, and I feel that some news in the either the ECB or BOE rate decisions tomorrow morning will trigger the GBP/USD to reverse and head down sharply. When the USD/JPY and the GBP/USD go down together, the GBP/JPY will follow. The correction GBP/JPY was completing was complex, but I have a possible count which I put in the chart. Like I've said before, like the USD/JPY, the GBP/JPY and the EUR/JPY for that matter, are on their way to test and break through their August lows. If I'm right that the GBP/JPY just completed a failed 5th wave, then it would might be a good idea to get aggressively short right now, or once it tests the top of the channel ahead of the rate decisions to catch the huge reversal coming.

Regards,

Todd

Thank you Todd for your Analysis.

I was too engrossed with my wave counts that I failed to really look at how others including your's, Pips4life's and Carman's charts and analysis.

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1130   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 7, 2007 11:46pm
I Wanna Trade
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No problem man. I just like writing my thoughts down as it helps me organize and perhaps sharpen my strategy more. If someone takes interest along the way, then all the better.

The dollar, oil and gold are all at potential reversal points, I'm just looking for a signal and an associated wave count to support that signal. But in relation to this forum, the ECB and BOE rate decision looks like a good reversal catalyst, especially because a BOE rate cut is possible. This could actually spark dollar strength and push the EUR/USD down as well. But the point is that if the GBP/USD gets heavy downward pressure which is due any time now, when you take into account the wave count on the USD/JPY, it would severly drag down the GBP/JPY and perhaps validate the wave count I posted above.

Regards, EG, all,

Todd
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#1131   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 8, 2007 4:25am
FxMt
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif Still valid ...
Quote:
Originally Posted by el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Thank you Todd for your Analysis.

I was too engrossed with my wave counts that I failed to really look at how others including your's, Pips4life's and Carman's charts and analysis.

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif

Just in case ... http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/winking.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=64568&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194513836   

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#1132   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 8, 2007 5:01am
carforum
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Hi,
Here is my counting for GBP and EUR, I also think there will be a large correction! Any suggestion are very welcomed.... Thx
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=64575&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194516024   http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=64576&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194516032   

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#1133   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 8, 2007 4:43pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Thank you all for your charts.

I am more inclined to lean on a Bullish trend for today.

Agreeing with FxMt's Chart...

Attached chart is a 5min GBPJPY where an obvious 5 wave structure is seen going up.

I have not yet checked how this fits in the over all count but this surely looks like wave 1 going up from below.

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif

update: maybe the next chart will do.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=64709&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194558680   
Attached Imageshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=64706&stc=1&d=1194558224

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EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


Last edited by el grande, Nov 8, 2007 4:51pm Reason: add another chart
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#1134   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 8, 2007 5:17pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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another chart
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=64711&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194560244   http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=64712&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194560244   

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EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1135   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 8, 2007 5:28pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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new track

Must decisively wait for the 78.6% retrace.

61.8% may be too early for this pair which has been observed to do up to 85% retrace.

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=64714&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194560806   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1136   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 8, 2007 6:23pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Anybody on DEMO and trading GBPJPY.....

You still have a chance to try out the wave count on your DEMO account.

If you have SHORTS, Unload or reduce exposure. at or near the Daily Pivot at 236.83. better @ 237 then
Load up your LONG Trades or hedge your Short Trades at the same level or @ 236.85.

SL @ 236.50 which is just 1 pip below the wave 1 origin and 1 pip lower the level acceptable for a 100% retracement of wave 1 for wave 2.

GET READY.

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Imageshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=64729&stc=1&d=1194564573

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EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1137   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 8, 2007 6:46pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Wave structure on the 5 min chart shows 5 part structure. However, the possible w4 overlaps with wave 1.

BUt note also that it was bouncing on the weekly 5sma.

This may not be enogh support to hold the pair from still going down to the Daily Pivot.

ooooppps. I just checked now and Daily Pivot is now @ 237.32.

Since it has opened and closed an hourly candle and possibly another one now below the new Daily Pivot, I am inclined to believe that this will still get down to 236.82 @76.8% retracement Level.

EG:
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=64735&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194565610   

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#1138   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 8, 2007 6:51pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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up to finish b.
possible attempt to reach 200ema on 15min chart

then down to finish c and start with 335333 small CORAL.

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=64738&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194565826   

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#1139   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 8, 2007 7:08pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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maximum retrace for B otherwise, wrong count so exit if trading it .

or not enter short before that level.

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=64742&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194567374   http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=64743&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194567374   

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EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1140   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 8, 2007 7:42pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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bad bad bad....

I entered 2 scalps for this wave down.

entered 1 @ FE 100.0 and another near FE 161.8 at the level I initially thought was the limit up for B.

Then when it kept going up. I was also looking at anoyher platform from a bifferent broker and it showed price going over the wave 1 end while meta quote platform did not show this overlap or exceeding wave 1 end.

So at the short pull back, I closed the 2 trades at a loss 112 pips inclusive of the 18 pip spread per trade.

what skipped my mind was the possibility of a Flat or irregular flat corrective wave. The limit of 78.6% must be for the Zigzag.

Now price has hit the 1hr 100sma and the 240ema on the 15min chart.. Let us see if this will provide resistance for the meantime.

Reminder to myself: To Stick to the MAIN TREND.

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Imageshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=64757&stc=1&d=1194568949

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


hefeiddd 发表于 2009-4-10 17:55

Nov 8, 2007 8:03pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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notes on chart
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1142   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 8, 2007 8:32pm
pips4life
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I too thought longs were in play, but it has hit resistance at 238.00. I'm rethinking that maybe the uptrend will collapse, and it's back to the shorts. I still don't know.

Check out these trendlines, and dual channels in play. It will have to clear above 238.00 conviincingly...

(No sooner did I type this than it fell to 237.33, which is 76.4% of this last upswing, and back up to 237.78. Perhaps it will keep going... just keep these resistance lines/channels in mind).
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=64766&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194571816   

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#1143   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 8, 2007 8:47pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Check my count. It just might work out as such.

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=64771&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194572844   http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=64772&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194572844   

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EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1144   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 8, 2007 9:01pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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update

now possible to break to down side

EG
Attached Imageshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=64776&stc=1&d=1194573593

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1145   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 8, 2007 9:16pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Let us see how this will progress

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Imageshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=64780&stc=1&d=1194574575

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


hefeiddd 发表于 2009-4-10 17:55

Nov 8, 2007 9:36pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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update
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=64785&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194575761   

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EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1148   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 8, 2007 9:51pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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check your oscillators

wave 2 may be expanding sideways as FLAT or a bigger Zigzag.

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=64790&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194576650   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1149   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 8, 2007 9:57pm
pips4life
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Yet one other system I've paid some attention to is price crossing the 100 smas, plus RSI(55) and CCI(50) on various timeframes.

I just noticed the Daily charts have now had two days closing below the 100sma, and it so happens, also the 200sma.

The RSI (over 50) and CCI (above zero) which are supposed to be considered at the same time as the sma crossings are possibly just barely bullish.

Regardless, I would expect indecision/ranging until the market makes a choice. The bears have a slight edge, IMO.

The Nikkei is down -168 to 15603.
http://www.nni.nikkei.co.jp/CF/FR/MKJ/
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#1150   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 8, 2007 10:02pm
pips4life
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There's also a daily bearish Gartley pattern on the Daily GU. Looks like the window is at least another 5 days, and GU could still rise to 2.1271-ish. I have a 161.8 fibo at that high level too.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=64793&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194577504   

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#1151   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 8, 2007 10:24pm
pips4life
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A few key S/R levels on a GJ H4 chart.
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#1152   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 9, 2007 10:05am
I Wanna Trade
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It looks that the chart I posted earlier of a failed wave 5 proved accurate (see below) as price and broken through key support at 235.23 in a wave iii in a larger wave 3 underway. The USD/JPY has played out exactly to plan as it's dropped 400 pips since the first count I posted. The USD/JPY has broken through its August low of 111.58 as it completed wave v within a larger wave 3. Price should correct significantly in large wave 4 before it continues to decline to test 108.00, and probably 101.50 eventually. With the GBP/JPY breaking 235.23 significantly, it's about to follow suit with the USD/JPY and break through its August lows of 219.29, and much further!

I've already been heavily short the USD/JPY and just took profits at 110.60 from 115.50 and will re-enter a short at the completion of its wave 4 (a-b-c) correction. Once the GBP/JPY follow and completes it wave iv correction I will also go aggressively short the GBP/JPY to target a break through 219.29 eventually. The Dow had severe resistance yesterday where wave a = c and fib 61.8% which should be complete wave c in a correction. It opened down big today, but should recover significantly by the close and raise the USD/JPY and GBP/JPY into their corrections which will present another opportunity for us to short them.

Best wishes,

Todd
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=64969&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194620209   http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=64974&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194620519   

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#1153   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 11, 2007 2:16am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar19064_4.gifQu|cksilver
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Hi,

I'm new with EW. Could someone tell me which pattern below is the correct EW.

Picture 1 which i count Higher high as no. 1
Picture 2 which i count lower low as no 1

So which one is correct?

Thanks in advance.
QS
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=65136&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194765382   http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=65137&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194765382   

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#1154   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 11, 2007 8:26am
mcv-exchange
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Qu|cksilver http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Hi,
Could someone tell me which pattern below is the correct EW.

So which one is correct?

Hi Quik,
I'm sure I'm not as well versed in EW as EG...but it appears that count No. 1 is the more correct of the 2. I made a few corrections to your 1st pic.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=65167&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194787518   

hefeiddd 发表于 2009-4-10 17:58

Nov 11, 2007 3:52pm
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I want to clean up and update my count for the USD/JPY and the GBP/JPY. The count for the USD/JPY has been clear for some time and been a cash cow for those with the same count http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/big_grin.gif. The GBP/JPY has not been clear however, other than a test of 200.00 was imminent, it was just a matter of when. GBP/JPY was carrying out a complex correction that made it unclear when the big bear wave (as part of large C wave) would begin. But Friday's significant break of 235.24 confirms that the big bear wave (of larger wave C) is now underway and will eventually test 200.00. The USD/JPY will lead most of the move and as shown by my count, the USD/JPY is due for a correction, most likely between 38% - 62% fibonacci. That will be a good time to aggressively get short on the GBP/JPY and even the EUR/JPY, and again on the USD/JPY, as they will drop significantly. Another element adding to my bearish bias and wave count is the GBP/JPY weekly chart that shows a clear head and shoulders pattern, where wave C will complete the pattern.

Regards,

Todd
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=65213&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194814223   http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=65214&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194814223   http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=65215&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1194814232   



Nov 16, 2007 4:26am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Chart
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=66648&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195205180   http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=66651&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195206345   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


Last edited by el grande, Nov 16, 2007 4:46am Reason: more charts
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#1163   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 16, 2007 4:54am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,792 Posts

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update for Possibility
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=66652&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195206784   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1164   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 16, 2007 5:13am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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A continuation of Fall?
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=66653&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195207994   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


hefeiddd 发表于 2009-4-10 18:00

Nov 16, 2007 5:23am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,792 Posts

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Falling
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=66655&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195208619   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1166   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 16, 2007 5:58am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Daily Support 1 is HIT

EW Count Revised
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=66657&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195210145   http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=66664&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195210663   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1167   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 16, 2007 6:13am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Breach of Daily Support 1 will likely see the new targets with the check Mark
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=66665&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195211609   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1168   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 16, 2007 6:17am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Micro EW on the 1min chart
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=66667&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195211844   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1169   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 16, 2007 6:23am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Near end of Previous Sub wave 4

May qualify as c = 61.8 of a
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=66672&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195212213   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1170   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 16, 2007 6:31am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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waves 351 and 353 not visibly extended.

expecting 355 to be long and extended.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=66676&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195212675   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


hefeiddd 发表于 2009-4-10 18:01

Nov 16, 2007 6:46am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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another potential set-up
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__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1172   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 16, 2007 7:21am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Spike messed up my count

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/sad.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1173   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 16, 2007 10:01am
FxMt
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon5.gif w3 hit, now dancing w4 ?
Quote:
Originally Posted by el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Spike messed up my count

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/sad.gif

What do you think EG?
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#1174   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 16, 2007 11:38am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FxMt http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
What do you think EG?


Am not quite sure about that FxMt.

Re working my chart now, I see on the 1 hr TF that we may already be finished with the wave C down .

Leg down of price after the end or top of wave 4

a. shows a 5 wave structure
b. has exceeded or gone lower than previous low at wave 3 end
c. w2 is almost 61.8% Retrace of w1
d. w4 is between 50% and 61.8% retrace of w3
e. w1 almost equal to w5 for wave equality

Above are points I am considering for now to convince myself that GBPJPY is going UP again Long Term.

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif

Sorry can.t seem to posta chart now.

But anyway , you should have an idea based on what I enumerated above
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1175   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 16, 2007 8:33pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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I hope this goes thru.

BTW, I just noticed now that there was also a GAP on the 1 hour chart.

This couild mean that it was at the middle of a wave 3 or nearing the end of a wave.

So here is another reason why I think this pair is on the reverse trend now and is on its way up again.

I guess the BEARS could not swim that deep yet..

But remember that a wave 1 up is followed by a wave 2 down. This could mean that a rally up for a sub wave 1 will be followed by a retrace of 76.4% to 85% or atmost 100% of wave 1.

So very likely that we are comin down again to test the current low.

I think I will wait for that retrace and trade it UP.

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif

file:///C:/RGV/1h%20route%20potential-001.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=66775&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195263162   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1176   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 16, 2007 8:43pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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This is strange.

The chart below was the chart I was trying to post last night. But since I had problems last night I gave up and went to sleep.

But this morning I tried to post same chart and still unable to. So I tried saving the chart again this morning.

But notice that the chart below from last night has a GAP on the 1 hour chart. But the same place or candlestick last night does nt show a GAP on the chart I saved this morning.

Strange. Same broker and showing differences in the chart in history.

Chart below shows the GAP

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/confused.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=66777&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195263762   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


hefeiddd 发表于 2009-4-10 18:02

Nov 16, 2007 11:13pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Forget About the GAP.

I do not see it in my other computers.

Below is the proposed count and Potential Price Route for next week.

As you will see, it is possible that the Move down is already finished with the wave 5 down ending as an ending diagonal triangle.

Followed by a new 5 wave up which looks like trying to finish of the sub wave 5 of this wave 1 up.

You will also notice the FIB Retracement tools and the FIB extention tools on the chart.

I am just trying to see how the Price moves fit into the EW Rules I have encountered.

1. if w5 down is finished, then we should expect the new wave 1 up to over balance this diagonal w5 down.

2. looking at how price has already developed for this wave 1 up and using the internal swings to project the end of it,

a. 1st we see that wave i is almost equal to wave iii. But wave iii is slightly longer.

b. the guideline on extended waves show that if wave i and wave iii are almost equal and do not clearly show any form of extention, then we expect wave v to be extended.

c. moreover, wave v is expected to be 161.8% of w0 to w3 and that means w0 to w iii. That gives us a projected top of FE 161.8 234.03. But because this is GBPJPY, often times it still exceeds this by going for FE 178.6 @ 234.78..... But I would settle for FE 161.8 @ 234.78

d. From this rally, we expect it to be followed by a DIP which is the retracement of our wave 1 up by going down towards 78.6% retracement ( 226.24 ) or up to 85% @ 225.54 or even till 100% retracement @ 223.91.

Count is invalidated by price dipping lower than 223.91. SO SL @ 223.90

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=66781&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195272794   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS




Nov 18, 2007 8:37am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Charts 1-5
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=66937&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195392981   http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=66938&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195392981   http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=66939&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195393003   http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=66940&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195393003

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=66941&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195393019   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


hefeiddd 发表于 2009-4-10 18:03

Nov 18, 2007 8:40am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Charts 6-10
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=66942&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195393102   http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=66943&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195393102   http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=66944&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195393124   http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=66945&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195393124

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=66946&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195393160   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1189   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 18, 2007 8:48am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006

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Charts 11-15
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=66947&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195393261   http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=66948&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195393285   http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=66950&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195393312   http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=66951&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195393312

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=66952&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195393332   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


hefeiddd 发表于 2009-4-10 18:04

Nov 18, 2007 1:49pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Charts 16 to 18
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=66996&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195411755   http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=66997&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195411755   http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=66998&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195411772   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1191   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 18, 2007 7:25pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Closed the GAP
Rallied to 228.32

Expecting a potential retrace to 227 to end expanded flat wave 4

oooopppss
wrong point of reference
ended wave b of wave 4 on 5min chart

Whole of wave 4 is corrective flat (regular)
So target is 226.81 for FE 100.0

sorry


EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1192   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 18, 2007 9:06pm
JackSpade
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17 Posts

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif usdjpy
Nice charts EG.

Here some waves Ive been looking at. I got the original red & yellows from the Elliot wave newsletter (their count was on the yen futures as I recall, so `upside down` to us).

I notice that the pink 50% is close to the green 62% and also broken support at yellow (i). Im going to wait and see if it pauses up around there for a short, if it even goes back up there that is...
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=67062&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195437835   




Exited trades with minimal profit after realizingthat wave 3 was 425% of wave 1.

This could mean a further dip for this pair before it starts going Up again.

Staying on the sidelines even on DEMO. Will wait for the move up.

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=67086&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195444007   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


Last edited by el grande, Nov 18, 2007 10:46pm Reason: add chart
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1198   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 18, 2007 10:56pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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exited too soon.

after reviewing wave structure again this is what I came up with.

have re -entered for the long trades once more

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif

I am trading this on DEMO. So Sl is quite big @ 300
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=67089&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195444553   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1199   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 18, 2007 11:13pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,792 Posts

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the reason why I decided to re enter my long trade is because when I re-assessed the wave structure...

I was projecting a wave 4 @ around 227.71 because if the leg up from 226.66 was wave a and will be a 5 wave structure, then after seeing wave 1 to be almost same as wave 3, then by the guideline of wave extention, wave 5 would have to be 161.8 of w0 to w3. that would land it at 227.71 to 227.79

But this would mean over 61.8% retracement for wave 4. I am assuming that wave 4 will only retrace that much if it was developing a zigzag wave.

However, wave 2 was already a zigzag , so wave 4 can only be a complex sideways corrective wave. And most sideways corrective waves will only retrace 38.2% of wave 3.

Therefore, after seeing the new labelling I made where I was able to fit a w1 equal to w5 for the guideline on wave 3 Extention, I therefore concluded that the move up is already the beginning of the wave 5 UP to end the sub-wave1 ( @ 234.03 to 234.78 ) of c inside Big wave B up which should bring us to the area of (241.35)

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif

Remeber to watch the waves as they unfold because there will always be retracements that could wipe out all the gains now.

For a Longer term Position, 1 would need an SL to be 1 pip below 223.91 @ 223.90

When we reach 234 level, it is very likely that price will retrace from 50% to 85% or 100% of its move from 223.91.

So be very careful.
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1200   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 19, 2007 2:25am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,792 Posts

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ending diagonalC?
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=67111&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195457126   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS

hefeiddd 发表于 2009-4-10 18:05

Nov 19, 2007 10:12pm
daytek
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It seems like we might have another chance to launch some longs...if this one fails then the H and S pattern would certainly hold...
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=67351&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195528299   

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1202   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 20, 2007 9:24pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Sorry all. My mind seems not working right now.

I can't find a good wave count to present after that weekend analysis basically failed.

Back to my books now.

EG
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1203   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 21, 2007 2:33pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Hey Daytek...

Thank you for posting your chart here. I hope to see more of your chart...


Ok.... Here is what I see in the GBPJPY now

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=67893&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195673568   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1204   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 21, 2007 4:13pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Alternative counts
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=67919&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195679572   http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=67920&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195679572   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1205   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 21, 2007 11:30pm
daytek
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Tomorrow is an american holiday so i dont have an intraday plan but it could be an interesting day to see what will develop for the future...see if the current levels are holding or if it is time to seek more possibilities.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=67978&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195705725   http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=67979&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195705753   http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=67980&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195705778   http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=67981&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195705778



hefeiddd 发表于 2009-4-10 18:06

Nov 23, 2007 9:00am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Attached Charts
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=68273&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195826249   http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=68274&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195826249   http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=68275&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195826374   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 23, 2007 9:19am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Below are my current charts for this weekend and for next week.

Let us see how these charts will perform..

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=68279&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195827445   http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=68280&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195827445   http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=68281&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195827470   http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=68282&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195827470

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=68283&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195827497   http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=68284&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195827497   http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=68286&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195827939   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


Last edited by el grande, Nov 23, 2007 9:50am

hefeiddd 发表于 2009-4-10 18:06

Nov 23, 2007 9:29am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Alternative Count on 15min
alternative

replacing f

I did not notice I had not yet moved the iv wave label.

seems like market will be in correction till closing or will have the start of the move down again.

Price will probably have a GAP Down by Monday Open ASIA to finish the Sub wave 3 down of the final wave 5 then

Wednesday a wave 34 retracement then a Friday Plunge.

End of the month.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=68289&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195828283   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 23, 2007 10:11am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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New LOW is made

So I need to change the count on the 15min.

That means I need to re work all the charts I made above till the 1 hr chart.

Lookd like this is the the wave 3 inside a wave 3 of a wave 5.

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=68294&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195830675   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1211   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 23, 2007 10:39am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Suggested TP Levels if this continues down:

Daily S3 @ 220.44
Weekly S2 @ 219.69

and if it still breaks above level.... next I see is weekly S3 @ 215.48

Some how, if this does fall below 220.44... I am favoring 219.69 then expext a retrace... thus cancelling current weekly S3 as the next target.

Next week, we will have new Weekly and Daily Pivot and Resistance/Support Levels.

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1212   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 23, 2007 11:51am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Another revised 15 min count
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=68315&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195836690   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1213   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 23, 2007 2:01pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Looks like I will have to say goodbye to my short trade.

Looking for a retrace of sub wave 1 towards
50% 222.15
61.8% 221.94
78.6% 221.64
85% 221.52


And we should be Good for Longs from there and most likely surpussing the 251 position.

the ending diagonal triangle will fit into a wave 5 label. And this would somehow end the plunge as this is the end of BIG wave C Down of the Corrective Wave 4 on the Daily Chart.

A Break above the downward upper trendline will give me a better confirmation for the Trend reversal.

EG
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=68329&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195844477   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1214   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 23, 2007 3:45pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Exited my short trade at a loss.

Will wait to enter anew after a retracement towards the previous low.

Based on the ending diagonal triangle, this sub wave 1 up may hit the upper downtrendline as it coincides with the 261.8% fib extention from the sub wave 1 of sub wave 1.

or follow Wave Equality w5 = w1

But more likely take the 127.6% FE based on historical observation. Then make a retrace back down before moving UP.

They say that a breakout of an ending diagonal triangle could be very powerful that it normally exceeds the the whole length of the triangle itself.

And I think this would have quite a lot of weight as the ending diagonal triangle (if it plays out) is found in the 4hour Timeframe.

Today I broke my own rule. After getting a little more than 135 pips (this morning) which is my Daily target I am supposed to just study or demo . Now I had to give it back again becfause I missed that ending diagonal triangle.

I got lost in the wave count for this 5th wave. I failed to realize at once the possibility of an ending diagonal triangle which causes an overlap among the waves and w3 could also be the shortest among w1 w3 and w5.

So for next time, I realize my 2 evident mistakes and next time I should remember to correct.

1. To monitor potential waves 1 or A for possibility of a leading diagonal triangle instead of an impulse wave . or for waves 5 or C for potential ending diagonal waves instead of an impulse wave.

2. to scan for this patterns in all time frames specially the time frames higher than 15 mins.

3. to keep reviewing ew counts on the daily, 4 hr and the 1hr charts and to avoid getting drowned in the ew counts of the lower time frame.

This is getting much easier now. Yes I still make a lot of mistakes on my ew counts. But learning from these mistakes by knowing what went wrong helps me understand and remember the rules better. what ever I lose on my live trades because of error in counting waves, will just have to be considered as additional expenses in learning.

Right now... I only trade the smallest amount allowed by my broker. I can only increase that when I can get a full week of 135x5=675pips minimum in a week.

If I get more than 135 already for the day, I will only trade again for the day if I have an extra50 pips from my daily quota. That is the only amount at risk I will allow myself for another trade in the day beyond my target. ( that includes the spread of 20 per trade ). this should make me more careful with additional trades and limit potential loss. This means I will only allow my trade a maximum of 30 pips drawdown. Otherwise, I call it a day.

Trying to build discipline here for myself.

HAPPY WEEKEND EVERYONE.

EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=68347&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195850655   http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=68348&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195850655   http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=68349&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195850682   http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=68350&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195850682

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=68351&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1195850699   

__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS


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#1215   
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 23, 2007 4:06pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar25165_1.gifmarketwavez
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Longer-Term ( Usd/Yen )
--------------------------
- Is the Usd/Yen going to hell in a hand basket ?...........

How much lower do you thhink ............?
------------------------------------------------------------
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