Dec 31, 2007 12:15am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
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watch price action.
what may have been end of sub wave 1 resulted in a Pin Bar.
now watching potential support levels as possible turning point to end wave 2 down and proceed with what I think should be wave 3 UP.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=75312&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199078142 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=75313&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199078378 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=75315&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199079395
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Dec 31, 2007 12:36am
Dec 31, 2007 1:04am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Dissecting the EW Labelling further using Channelling, it looks like the bottom after all has not been in place yet.
And the 222.67 may still be inplay. I am currently out of any trade now and just waiting for what I think is the right time to enter my Long trade.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
PS. I would like to remind everyone following this thread not to base their trades on my EW Counts as these are continiuosly understudy. It may give you some idea sometimes but one needs to base their trades on their own analysis of the charts.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=75316&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199080935
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Dec 31, 2007 1:39am
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1385
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 31, 2007 1:17am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
more scribbled charts....
Note that a throwunder for price to reach 221.95 or 221.69 is still possible to keep the 0123 Triangulation valid as well as the EW Counts.
Using Pivots, I would say that the Weekly S2 @ 221.20 may also still hold as final Support prior to going up. But this does not seem to blend well with my EW Count.
One thing though about how I trade is I still keep an open mind if there are some differences between my EW Count and the other tools I use. It is either I enter with a minimum amount to risk or I wait till I get a better signal.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=75317&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199081785 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=75318&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199081785 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=75320&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199081828
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1386
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 31, 2007 8:37am
money
Multiple Usernames
Member Since Jul 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/1kt.gif106 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif eur_usd
Quote:
Originally Posted by adji04 http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
bro, how about predict eur/usd with elliot for today (daily,horly,4H) because i have position with this currency..
what's sugest for this curr..buy again or stand aside??
and where's another site to predict eur/usd with elliotwave..?
last..which best tools to combine with elliot..
thenkyou...http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Hello adji04. Here you can see my Elliott counting on eur-usd. i think that we should see some retricement in this wave 2 in3 waves. I will wait for this retricement, to look for new positions to go long. I would like to see drop down to around 1,4580- 1,4620. i hope that this helps you a little. You can also check our analyses here. But i did not updated them for today. nice trading, Grega
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=75372&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199108219
Jan 1, 2008 6:55pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Here are my charts
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=75566&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199231580 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=75567&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199231580 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=75568&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199231598
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1393
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 1, 2008 8:08pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
I most likely need to correct myself and my chart on my EURUSD Analysis.
I realized that I placed wave 2 to be a zigzag and wave 4 to be a Zigzag also which normally should not be the case.
Checking wave 2 again, I think it cannot be a Zigzag but a Sideways expanding corrective wave. I cannot find a reference classifying this pattern so I will classify it as Complex. This will allow me to pursue the idea that wave 4 will be a Zigzag wave.
Therefore if wave 4 is considered as a Zigzag wave, the move down from 1.4747 to 1.4581 may initially be thought of by me as a Zigzag. However when we look at the Potential relationship between what is considered as Wave C and Wave A, we will note that wave "C" is about 300% of wave "A", which I think is not within the Guideline of EW Principle.
So I will much rather consider that as a wave 1 and a wave 3, where now we see wave 3 finished and wave 4 developing to most likely reach 1.4638. Then expecting wave 5 to develop as it goes down again more like a w5=w1 to give more room for the actual Zigzag Big wave 4 @ 1.4563.
Once this Leg A ( 5 wave structure ) is finished, we now refer to the structure of A to lead us to expect what wave B possibly can be. In this case, since wave A is a 5 wave structure, then Wave B is expected to be a FLAT or A Triangle. a FLAT has a 335 structure while a Triangle has a 33333 structure.
Then we will see this pair going down again and lower than the previous low of ( which probably would be around 1.4563 ).
Okay, if I go on with this rambling, and make a sketchy forecast of the potential route of EURUSD using the Guidelines, then here goes....
Leg A finishes at 1.4563 then goes up by 50% ( @ 1.4655 ) developing a FLAT or a Triangle wave B then Falls again to finish wave C as C=100% of A (@ 1.4471) or 161.8% of A (@ 1.4357 ).
Now that is how I see it with my EW Count for EURUSD.
Now to go to the Technical side, to me this wave count fits better now as 4 hour stochastics is just crossing down Level 80. That to me means that Wave 4 is far from over. The Zigzag concept will most likely provide that time to allow it to get oversold and crossback Upwards of the Level 20. Thus the beginning of the actual Wave 5 UP.
I would most likely be setting my Short trade @ 1.4655 now. That is if I see
Price stop at around 1.4563. Better to trade the Wave C down.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=75573&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199235974
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Jan 1, 2008 8:45pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Alternative Count for EURUSD
Here is a much simpler Alternative Count
Note that this is on the 1 hour Chart.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=75576&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199238346
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1397
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 1, 2008 10:18pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif USDJPY
My EW Count for USDJPY.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=75590&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199243860 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=75591&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199243860
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Jan 2, 2008 6:38am
money
Multiple Usernames
Member Since Jul 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/1kt.gif106 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EUR/USD, USD/JPY
hi EG,
i saw that we are watching the same pairs.
EUR/USD
I think that EUR will make new highs in this qauter of the year. We must realize that we are still in very powerful bull counting. I saw that you are waitting this weave 2 to conclude. But i believe that this wave 2 already make his low.But this will be confirm when will trend break high 1,4747. This 2 wave made his low on the ideal support at previous zone of wave IV around 1,4580. This is very strong support, and from here is going up now already for 100 pips. So i believe that we are on the way to the wave 3...
USD/JPY
You are also watching this pair. I saw your monthly chart...This wave 4 that you are waitting it is already done in A_B_C_D_E pattern. But we must realize that there is not always ideal patterns in the market. in this case my wave B did not touch lower line. But we can see that is still very very powerfull patern to make new lows.
We must also consider that pairs EUR/USD and USD/JPY should be going in differnt direcitons.
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=75656&thumb=1&d=1199273876
Jan 2, 2008 9:58pm
Learntocount
Member
Member Since Dec 2007
242 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
This is called a bull flag pattern.....break will be up.....
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=75822&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199329124
Jan 2, 2008 11:48pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
I just discovered that I was getting different set ups from 2 MT4 Platforms I was using which may have been confusing me as I was using meta quotes to chart my EW counts while I was using fibo-group for my technical side.
some how they did not match and I just found out why I was having trouble with that running flat wave 4. meta-quote extended down way way low while fibo-group exhibited more of a better set up for a running flat corrective wave 4.
Attached are the 2 charts
For Better RR, I believe it is best to wait for 1.4750 as Tim has suggested. Unless a Bullish candle probably opens and closes above that downward trendline.
Tim, what do you think?
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=75850&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199336408 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=75851&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199336510
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Jan 3, 2008 12:02am
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1415
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 3, 2008 12:14am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Here is how I see EURUSD now.
I now have a bias for the sub wave 4 Bullish Flag Scenario. where sub wave 3 has made a breakout of the Channel and came back into it forming a bullish flag wave 4.
Waiting for a high probability profitable trade set-up for this sub wave 5 of 5.
Now you may ask , why not enter at the bottom of that channel or that rightside of the channel as price bounces of off it?
Wel maybe we can but we have to set a tight stop loss. But it I believe now that the 1.4750 is the best level and the least risky to trade. hhmmm... unless by the rule of wave equality..... w5=w1 when wave 3 is extended. that would make trading a breakout from that level have a higher Risk.
Any one want to share their thoughts on this one?
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=75854&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199337235 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=75857&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199338130
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Jan 3, 2008 12:35am
Jan 3, 2008 1:53am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
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Hi Tim..
Does the Breakout from the Bullish Flag also follow the Projection used on the triangle?
in the attached chart, wave 4 tok almost same amount of time to finish as wave 0-3.
If TP projection follows the same method as that for Triangles, then TP should be in the area of 1.4762?
I have set my initial target at 1.4770 which is at Daly R2. Anyway, I will be watching my charts so will be observing the wave development and make my exit decisions accordingly.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=75871&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199343033
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1421
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 3, 2008 2:02am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EURUSD Update
Update
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=75874&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199343705
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1422
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 3, 2008 2:56am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Here is what keeps trading hours a bit more colorful than just seeing EW counts, patterns and channels....
Notice how the MAs spread like a Fan as it develops a wave 3. At least that is how I see it.
Thanks to TheWicker for sharing his indicators for for his Trend Follower System
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=40325
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=75878&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199345210
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1423
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 3, 2008 2:57am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
EURUSD Update
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=75881&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199347027
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1424
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 3, 2008 4:23am
money
Multiple Usernames
Member Since Jul 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/1kt.gif106 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EUR/USD
And here is my view for EUR/USD.
i will go long when will break trough my upper trend line. but we must stay under my lower trend line. Other pairs check here
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=75890&thumb=1&d=1199352190
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1425
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 3, 2008 4:24am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EURUSD Update
Barrier Triangle
Bullish Flag over extended and Now looks like Wave 4 is forming a big Barrier Triangle.
Watch out for a possible throwunder which could be a False Breakout to the Down side.
Barrier triangles in this form normally are Bullish as the Textbook would say.
Now it makes more good sense why it is best to wait for a breakout at 1.4750.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=75889&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199352179
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Jan 3, 2008 5:21am
Learntocount
Member
Member Since Dec 2007
242 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
our flag has morphed a little but still very valid...still looking for the break up!
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=75898&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199355674
Jan 3, 2008 7:59am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
a Possibility for EURUSD
just toying on the idea for now. currently out of the market . exited @1.4773
Missed 9 pips of max it went up earlier.
On 15min chart I see 2 pin bars and oscillators are over bought that is why I am thinking that this might just be sub wave 1 of 5 followed by what seems like an expanded FLAT.
if not, then I miss the train . will look for better set ups to trade tomorrow morning.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=75923&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199364969
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1432
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 3, 2008 8:06am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
or this could be a better possibility.
Well... I am going to get some much needed sleep tonight. See you all in the morning.
Good Trading to All of you.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=75924&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199365529
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1433
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 3, 2008 8:29am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY
I could not resist printing this out before I closed my PC
Price is below Monthly, weekly and Daily Pivot.
I would consider really very Bearish. However, this pair needs to retrace for a correction which I believe is happening now with the sub wave 4 of Wave 3 or C down.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=75931&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199366826
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Jan 3, 2008 8:53am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
another chart
may just be in wave 4 of a 5 wave structure A
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=75942&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199368321
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1437
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 3, 2008 9:01am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
whew.... I took a peek at EURUSD....
I got out just in time then with my long trade. Now waiting for a nice set up for a new Long Trade.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Jan 3, 2008 9:11am
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1438
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 3, 2008 9:15am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by Learntocount http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
here's what I mean...notice divergence on awesome oscillator...wave 5 creates divergence because it is not as strong as wave 3
Hi Tim... I thought you were going to sleep too.....
Anyway, thank you for checking on my charts for EURUSD. Do you mean that the second chart I proposed is the better choice?
Since I have counted 5 waves on the move up and price has not surpassed main wave 3 top at 1.4966, then this must have just beem sub wave 1 of 5 and sub wave 2 of 5 is expected to retrace sub wave 1 by 61.8% which is around 1.4511
Otherwise...... at what level do you expect price to bounce or where would you consider starting to load Long Trades?
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1439
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 3, 2008 9:28am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
wave 2
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=75951&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199370497
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Jan 3, 2008 10:23am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
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GBPJPY
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=75972&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199373804
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1445
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 3, 2008 10:25am
Learntocount
Member
Member Since Dec 2007
242 Posts
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go to a 4 hour and tell me what you see........
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#1446
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 3, 2008 10:28am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Learntocount http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Looks like a 4 in the making on gbp/jpy.....when in doubt, go to longer term charts and use Fibonacci and the norms of the waves...i.e. wave 4 does a 38% retrace of wave 3.......when the waves get complex, fall back on the rules...you may miss a trade or two on pairs that don't act right, the key is find one that does exactly what it is supposed to do and ride it to the barn......
Looks like a triangle in the making for the wave 4 of Leg A of the the bigger wave 4.
Price has retraced wave 3 almost near 38.2% which I think makes it a high probability wave 4 . Then A long trade on the breakout or I could wait for wave 5 to end for this 5 wave structured Leg A.
Then Short it for a Zigzag B wave of this wave 4. what do youthink Tim?
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=75974&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199374217
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#1447
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 3, 2008 10:36am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
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EURUSD
Price has retraced upwards by about 50% as we anticipated. Most likely I will be looking at the FE 100.0 for the C = A Zigzag wave which incidentally falls on the 61.8% retrace quite common for wave 2s.
Eyeing 1.4656 which is also near the Low of previous day @ 1.4641
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=75978&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199374936
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Jan 3, 2008 10:42am Reason: wrong chart
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#1448
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 3, 2008 10:40am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
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Here is my GBPJPY 4 hour chart.
Daily chart added
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=75977&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199374831 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=75981&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199375286
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#1449
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 3, 2008 10:47am
Learntocount
Member
Member Since Dec 2007
242 Posts
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I'm looking for 219ish also.....so don't sweat the small stuff.........sell when we get there and you can justify an ABC with C having 5 waves on a 1 hour chart.....take it to a new low and count your money.....
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#1450
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 3, 2008 10:50am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Learntocount http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
I'm looking for 219ish also.....so don't sweat the small stuff.........sell when we get there and you can justify an ABC with C having 5 waves on a 1 hour chart.....take it to a new low and count your money.....
Again Thank You Tim.
I will be counting waves on this wave 5 UP on GBPJPY.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1451
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 3, 2008 11:08am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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Here is what I see on the USDJPY monthly chart
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=75984&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199376458
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#1452
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 3, 2008 1:26pm
Learntocount
Member
Member Since Dec 2007
242 Posts
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we'll see, thats my alternate.....in the a,b,c,d,e pattern you have drawn it's important to know the count rom 30 years ago on the monthly.....my preferred count is your "A" is my "a" since it was 3 waves a move down out of this pattern woud be a final wave 5...also of note....decending triangles break to the downside.........as long as the impulse waves continue down, follow them and don't worry about a monthly count.......
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=76026&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199384739
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#1453
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 3, 2008 6:29pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Learntocount http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
we'll see, thats my alternate.....in the a,b,c,d,e pattern you have drawn it's important to know the count rom 30 years ago on the monthly.....my preferred count is your "A" is my "a" since it was 3 waves a move down out of this pattern woud be a final wave 5...also of note....decending triangles break to the downside.........as long as the impulse waves continue down, follow them and don't worry about a monthly count.......
Good morning Tim..
I wake up to a different scenario than what I was looking forward to before I turned in early this morning on the EURUSD and the GBPJPY smaller Timeframe.
Anyway , I will try to straighten out my bearings in a little while.
As for the USDJPY, my monthly chart data as you can see lacked the data for wave 1 and has an incomplete data for wave 2. I made some assumptions before but felt I was on the right direction when I saw your chart with the complete data of wave 1.
Now I see your wave 2 there is a zigzag confirming my earlier assumptions. So I would expect a Complex sideways expanding wave 4 which should be around 38.2% of wave 3. In this case I would look forward to seeing a FLAT or a triangle as per guideline set bythe book.
So yes, we have 2 potential counts for this monthly wave 4. We can either have that triangle where we can consider all these legs as part of the triangle and that last leg down as already a part of the Final wave 5 on the monthly chart or still just the wave E of a triangle.
Considering that as a wave E would mean that the wave A of big wave 4 is a 3 wave structure. this means that wave B should either be a FLAT or a Triangle. This is where my assumptions that we are in a wave B triangle come in as it is still within the Guideline.
But you are right, we just have to follow what we see on our charts now. At least we have info on 2 possible counts on the longer tf at the back of our mind and know why both are possible.
Good trading to you And everyone else .
Ok... got to have some breakfast before I plunge deep in here.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#1454
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 3, 2008 6:58pm
adji04
Member
Member Since Dec 2006
56 Posts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
EURUSD
Price has retraced upwards by about 50% as we anticipated. Most likely I will be looking at the FE 100.0 for the C = A Zigzag wave which incidentally falls on the 61.8% retrace quite common for wave 2s.
Eyeing 1.4656 which is also near the Low of previous day @ 1.4641
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
====
EG, at 15m chart now like triangle...
Attached Imageshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=76096&stc=1&d=1199404626
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#1455
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 3, 2008 7:04pm
adji04
Member
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56 Posts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by adji04 http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
====
EG, at 15m chart now like triangle...
===
too small pict...
EG i have 2 position buy 1.4758 and sell 1.4703...which must i closed and which must i go runing...???????http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/confused.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=76097&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199404880
Jan 3, 2008 8:00pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif 1st off
GBPJPY
Expecting GBPJPY to come down to test the bottom at 213.59 in a Zigzag since wave A up was in 5 moves.
If it breaches former low from yesterday, then we are probably back to the downtrend.
If it holds, I just might trade Long on this one on the end of wave 2 of the wave c going up.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=76115&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199408359
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1457
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 3, 2008 8:39pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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Adji04
I would rather not tell you whether to close or to hold on to any position right now. We have to take responsibility for our own trades. In as much as I would like to help you, the trade offs of holding on and biting the bullet if it goes against you is something every trader needs to learn.
I have learned this the hard way usually sacrificing majority of my capital only to see price retrace to save what would have still been my capital.
To cut the long story short, use proper money management. Like Tim has mentioned in one of his initial posts, we do not have to be in a trade all the time. We just have to select the best ones.
Now here is the long story......
I went out of the market early this morning and went to bed and slept soundly without a trade running. I studied the charts where price would go in the next hours using EW and some other strategies then went off to bed. Now I check if it is still on course then wait and decide for the next set up to trade.
Tim has shared a valuable lesson here and in his thread about trading the breakouts from the triangle and the flag. Waiting for the breakouts from this ABC or 123 patterns which if I understood it correctly does not necessarily give you the most number of pips in a given wave, but it gives you maybe less pips but high probability set ups that you can maximize using your capital even for just a few pips.
A parallel strategy is that of Linuxtroll's Rainbow which uses 5second to 1min and 5min charts just to scalp a few pips at least but with more lots. But he now sells the ebook for that strategy. A free and actually workable and now free Strategy is the one from TheWicker with his Trend Follower Strategy.
But trading the breakouts from the triangles and the flags is probably simpler than the other strategies I mentioned.
The only thing I can suggest to you now is for you to probably go back to demo or reduce your number of live trades PLUS use the least amount of your capital to trade possible while doing LIVE trades.
Then maybe you can start learning to hedge. But hedging is more for the pros. If I as an amateur does that, I have higher risks of wiping out my account. I think one only hedges when they trade heavy.
Now enough of my ramblings..... I hope I helped to enlighten you...
Sorry if that went too long.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#1458
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 3, 2008 8:47pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Next the EURUSD
Price has gone up while I slept... retracing towards 76.4% of wave A of what I think is a wave 2 down.
I will have to adjust my targets for the Zigzag wave down.
I think the sub wave c down is having a leading diagonal wave 1 now and likely doing wave 2 before plunging for wave 3 and end wave 5 down @ 1.4679 which is 50% retrace of main wave 1 from 1.4580 to 1.4780 or if extended would then be tillFE 161.8 @ 1.4629 which is also the 76.4% of the main wave 1.Then I would look for new Long trades at this levels.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=76126&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199411242
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#1459
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 3, 2008 8:59pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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Quote:
Originally Posted by adji04 http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
====
EG, at 15m chart now like triangle...
Note that Triangles in Elliott Wave Principles are found in
Wave 1 or A - Leading Diagonal Triangle
===This is followed by a retrace after a breakout to the opposite direction
Wave 5 or C - Ending Diagonal Triangle
=== Followed by an opposite Price direction
Wave 4 or also B - As Contracting, Expanding or as a Barrier Triangle
==== Followed by a continuation of the main trend
Carefull though of breakouts which are actually Throwovers or in some throwunders.
Not all breakouts from Triangle Patterns indicate price direction of the Breakout continuation.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
PS. oooooopppps I missed to include Wave B
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Jan 3, 2008 9:18pm
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#1460
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 3, 2008 9:31pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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Here's the wave 2 of the USDJPY.
Thank you Tim
I guess some sleep helped clear up my Brain and eyes.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=76134&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199413877
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#1461
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 3, 2008 9:54pm
adji04
Member
Member Since Dec 2006
56 Posts
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we says thanks for u advising...
thank's , i will more learn and patience....
now maybe i will cutt loss for better my live acc (-57pis)...
and stay away for a while till nonfarm employment launched...
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gifhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
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#1462
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 3, 2008 11:01pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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Quote:
Originally Posted by adji04 http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
we says thanks for u advising...
thank's , i will more learn and patience....
now maybe i will cutt loss for better my live acc (-57pis)...
and stay away for a while till nonfarm employment launched...
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gifhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Good idea.
I myself am on the sidelines watching now and will probably get in after the news.
Enough of the stress I have been thru for more than 1 year now trading live and studying at the same time.
I will take Tim's advise to choose the best set -up only even if it means trading less frequently.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#1463
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 3, 2008 11:06pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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Here is my EURJPY count.
I am not so sure that wave 5 of wave 1 has finished already nor wave 4 going up as if it is wave 4 going up now on the 30 min chart, then it has only retraced up by approximately 25%. I would be looking for around 38.2% towards 162.3, 50% @ 163 and 163.90 for 61.8%
Depends on how the waves develop
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=76150&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199419618 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=76151&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199419618 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=76152&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199419636
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#1464
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 3, 2008 11:32pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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EURUSD Possible direction
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=76158&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199421137
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#1465
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 4, 2008 12:56am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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Hi Tim.
Would a breakout from that downward trendline to the UPSide be the wave 3 of the wave C up?
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
----- Sorry . my bad. I replied to ask without reading the text fully. sorry again
I Checked the chart again and drew the fibs. So that is where we also get the 219 Projection for our TP. Thanks. I am learning something new from you everyday.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=76180&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199426103
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Jan 7, 2008 1:27am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif AUDUSD
Watching AUDUSD and NZDUSD for a possible Bear trend for Short to Medium tern trades.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=76761&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199687241
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1479
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 7, 2008 1:38am
Learntocount
Member
Member Since Dec 2007
242 Posts
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good calls...I'm already short the NZL and I've been waiting all day for 8750 on the aussie.......
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#1480
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 7, 2008 2:17am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Learntocount http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
good calls...I'm already short the NZL and I've been waiting all day for 8750 on the aussie.......
Too bad... am already late for the NZD party. Unless I get a chance with this potential retrace on the 5min/15min chart which will allow me to ride till 0.7500
As for Eurusd, I am also watching for a retrace up for what could be a wave c of wave 4. I already have a small position for this and will get out when it finishes 5 waves up on the 5min or 15min chart
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Jan 7, 2008 2:32am
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#1481
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 7, 2008 3:32am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif NZDUSD
This is how I see NZDUSD's movement
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=76789&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199694653 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=76790&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199694653 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=76791&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199694676 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=76792&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199694676
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=76793&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199694706 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=76794&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199694706 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=76795&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199694734
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#1482
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 7, 2008 3:47am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif NZDUSD 4hour
NZDUSD view
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=76806&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199695651
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#1483
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 7, 2008 4:49am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif AUDUSD
AUDUSD
Daily and Monthly Pivot @ 0.8745
Weekly Pivot @ 0.8753
An almost tripple top at the 15 min chart is observed.
The way I look at this, if price breaks thru the 3 pivots.... most likely this pair will turn Bullish in the next 2-3 days.
Revising my wave count. Looks like pair is about to start wave 5 of wave 3 down.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=76833&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199699738
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#1484
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 7, 2008 5:38am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
skippping AUDUSD and NZDUSD now as I am stuck with my Long EURUSD.
Unless EURUSD on the 15 min chart goes up for a Zigzag or Flat Wave 2, then I think I can unload my long eurusd and trade the wave 3 down on the 15min chart.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
2057 Asia : Update: looks like I will be able to get out of my Long trade soon with what looks like a wave 2 up.
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Jan 7, 2008 7:50am
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#1485
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 7, 2008 8:30am
money
Multiple Usernames
Member Since Jul 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/1kt.gif106 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EUR/USD
nice moves on EURO
yes- to new highs.................i hopehttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
what you think EG, where you will get out. I have in my mind around 1,4744. And then new entry after wave 4, not sure yet....
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=76899&thumb=1&d=1199712606
Jan 7, 2008 11:48am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EURUSD
this is how I see EURUSD now
Will be counting 5 waves up for sub wave C of Wave 2.
Potential resistance again at the weekly pivot @ 1.4737
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=76945&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199724397
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1488
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 7, 2008 12:09pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Alternate Structure on the wave 2 count of EURUSD
attached is an alternate wave structure for EURUSD
it could be a wave 2 expanded FLAT
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=76956&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199725763
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#1489
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 7, 2008 12:29pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD
A Potential Scenario on the GBPUSD similar to what Possibly can be observed with EURUSD.
Triangulated structures have been observed in some EW set-ups. I present this just for the record of recognizing the potential set up.
At times, successive triangulated structures are found first on a lower time frame and afterwhich it plays out will then proceed to develop the same set - up on the next higher time frame.
So let us watch if this GBPUSD plays this out and also the EURUSD.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=76960&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199726723
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#1490
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 7, 2008 12:38pm
adji04
Member
Member Since Dec 2006
56 Posts
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i'm stiil prefer eur/usd alt-2.as long as 4750 didn't break prefer sold. refered to chart alt-2,
i ask you,..EG,referred basic theory fibo/elliot it's need to retrace "lower below 4650-4630 before another leg up (target 1.5)??????http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/confused.gif
thx,http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/notworthy.gif
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#1491
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 7, 2008 12:51pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Leading Diagonal 1 or Ending Diagonal 5 for the GBPUSD Proposed triangulated structure.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=76967&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199728304
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1492
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 7, 2008 1:01pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by adji04 http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
i'm stiil prefer eur/usd alt-2.as long as 4750 didn't break prefer sold. refered to chart alt-2,
i ask you,..EG,referred basic theory fibo/elliot it's need to retrace "lower below 4650-4630 before another leg up (target 1.5)??????http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/confused.gif
thx,http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/notworthy.gif
This alternative wave count and proposed structure may play out what you see on EURUSD.
I have exited my Long EURUSD at BE. Waiting for a better set up for a short or a Long Trade. I have a bias to wait for a Long trade based on this last potential set up under the intertwining of EW and Triangulation.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=76969&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199728823
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Jan 7, 2008 1:16pm
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#1493
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 7, 2008 1:15pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Triangulating SR Trendlines
hhhhmmmmmm....... still watching EURUSD
Note that Blue wave 4 retraced almost 50% of wave 3
And if we consider the next wave as the 5th wave down, then based on the current structure, we can see that the potential wave 4 Magenta has retraced wave 3 magenta by 38.2%.
This is getting closer to what has been proposed. It is also likely that price does not touch the green downward support trendline. And it may also overshoot or make an underthrow.
Best is to watch and count the waves.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=76974&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199729502
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#1494
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 7, 2008 1:33pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
I moved the first point for the downward support trendline
and have included the fib extention for the potential wave 5 magenta to show possible meeting at the support trendline
Next is the question on whether proposed bottom at 1.4635 approx. is just end of wave 1 of wave C down or the end of wave C down already and that the potential bounce off that trendline will bring price to toward 1.5000
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=76978&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199730766
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1495
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 7, 2008 2:21pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif AUDUSD
AUDUSD
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=76988&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199733660 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=76990&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199733660
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#1496
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 7, 2008 3:31pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif NZDUSD Potential set-up for the week
Potential set up for the week for NZDUSD.
It looks like a wave 2 or a wave 3 of a wave C Up of a bigger a wave 2 UP is developing on the NZDUSD on the 15min chart.
An upward channel has been formed.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77002&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199737797
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1497
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 7, 2008 4:33pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif AUDUSD
Possible FLAT corrective wave 4 on AUDUSD
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77017&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199741583
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#1498
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 7, 2008 7:05pm
adji04
Member
Member Since Dec 2006
56 Posts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
I moved the first point for the downward support trendline
and have included the fib extention for the potential wave 5 magenta to show possible meeting at the support trendline
Next is the question on whether proposed bottom at 1.4635 approx. is just end of wave 1 of wave C down or the end of wave C down already and that the potential bounce off that trendline will bring price to toward 1.5000
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
===
Morning, EG...
refer to alt-c ..if today price close below 4687-4700 start counting w.4 to w.5 down. with target down 4630..
and "if this trenddown occured"and stop at 4630(w.2)..will be trigered next (w.3 or w.5) if 4750 broken...
the question is...will be ECB raise interest???? i think none,for a while/keep rates unchange...(maybe yes..or maybe nothttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/winking.gif )
thanks EG http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/notworthy.gif
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1499
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 7, 2008 7:14pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif NZDUSD
Looking to finish wave 5 of wave C inside Bigger wave 2 UP.
Otherwise, 1st sign of down trend resumption is overlap of wave 4 with wave 1
Followed by breakout to the downside of the channel
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
...... had to replace charts . most likely not wave iv but wave iii.2
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77051&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199751932 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77052&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199751932
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Jan 7, 2008 7:50pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif AUDUSD 4h
AUDUSD 4h
Breakout to the UPSIDE will signal resumption of wave 3 UP
A breakout to the DOWNSIDE will most likely develop a Zigzag wave 2
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77054&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199753314
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1502
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 7, 2008 9:03pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif AUDUSD
AUDUSD 1hr
Price has breeched monthly pivot @ 0.8744 and encountered resistance at the weekly Pivot @ 0.8755
The way I look at it, If price continues to encounter resistance at the Weekly Pivot level, then it would lead to a formation of a triangle wave B after a 5 wave Leg A
Afterwhich Leg C down will complete a Zigzag for wave 2 Down.
Then the BIG Wave 3 up continues.
Fibonacci Projections are:
Wave 3 @ 0.9070 - 0.9183
Wave 5 @ 0.9367 - 0.9480
with maximum @ 0.9850
I did not believe last 2006 October when I started Trading live that from 0.7500 price would go to 0.8800
at that time I thought it was far fetched. Then it took 10 months for price to achieve that level. what I did not note well was the retracements.
But should this pan out, best level to buy is at end of wave 2
1st SL at origin of wave 1
once wave 4 is achieved, move SL to end of wave 2
then when price for wave 5 exceeds end of wave 3 move SL to end of wave 4.
I must be dreaming...... somebody wake me up.....
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77067&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199757311 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77068&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199757311
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#1503
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 7, 2008 9:20pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EURUSD Daily
replacing initial chart for more details.
Ok. I had my doubts on the continued downtrend based on my wave count on eurusd.
However when I saw the Price action on the daily a few minutes ago, I must admit that EURUSD looks more like heading down for a bigger correction.
1.4505 falls @ the 61.8% retracement for wave 2
Pin bar and the bearish engulfing candle indicate bearish bias for this pair.
So now I would be looking for a nice entry for my short trade.
EGhttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/images/smilies/smile.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77071&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199759491
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Jan 7, 2008 9:31pm
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#1504
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 8, 2008 6:54pm
adji04
Member
Member Since Dec 2006
56 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
replacing initial chart for more details.
Ok. I had my doubts on the continued downtrend based on my wave count on eurusd.
However when I saw the Price action on the daily a few minutes ago, I must admit that EURUSD looks more like heading down for a bigger correction.
1.4505 falls @ the 61.8% retracement for wave 2
Pin bar and the bearish engulfing candle indicate bearish bias for this pair.
So now I would be looking for a nice entry for my short trade.
EGhttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/images/smilies/smile.gif
===
my direction same as U. my Sl stand at 4735/4750/4825.Eu need correction down bef Another Leg Up..
correct me if i wrong,thanks EG..http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/notworthy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77388&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199836335
Notice too that price is right below 100 sma on the 15min chart and right above the daily pivot @ 1.4709
4hour stochs is going up and has crossed 50 level.
Price is stil inside the Price Range of yesterday. I am looking out for a breakout of this range too.Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77437&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199853395
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Jan 8, 2008 11:52pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1506
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 9, 2008 12:08am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
or we can see it this way too...
as a symmetricasl triangle with the 33333 structure having a throwover on the wave e of wave 2
But if price goes above the 100sma on the 15min chart and then goes higher than the following:
weekly pivot @ 1.4737
yesterdays' high @ 1.4740
Daily R2 @ 1.4747
Then I might just have more bias for the upside for this pair.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77442&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199855428
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1507
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 9, 2008 12:18am
Learntocount
Member
Member Since Dec 2007
242 Posts
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Can I throw in my two cents.......I have a entry sell at 4695......and it doesn't matter what happens till it gets hit....go trade a pair you can read some structure and jump on a impulse wave......trying to count waves like this will make you old and in the end, you'll probably be wrong just like I always was when I tried counting abcxyzabcxabcde.......draw a line at the top of the correction and at the bottom...odds are it is going to be a continuation wave of the down move off 150ish...wait for it and make pips off impulse waves......now, back to counting........http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
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#1508
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 9, 2008 12:23am
adji04
Member
Member Since Dec 2006
56 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
or we can see it this way too...
as a symmetricasl triangle with the 33333 structure having a throwover on the wave e of wave 2
But if price goes above the 100sma on the 15min chart and then goes higher than the following:
weekly pivot @ 1.4737
yesterdays' high @ 1.4740
Daily R2 @ 1.4747
Then I might just have more bias for the upside for this pair.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
===
clear,...today i'm hedging too B 4720 SL 4695 TP 4760..
thx for "warning" sign....http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/winking.gif
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#1509
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 9, 2008 12:31am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
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wave 2 limits
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77444&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199856705
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#1510
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 9, 2008 12:52am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Learntocount http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Can I throw in my two cents.......I have a entry sell at 4695......and it doesn't matter what happens till it gets hit....go trade a pair you can read some structure and jump on a impulse wave......trying to count waves like this will make you old and in the end, you'll probably be wrong just like I always was when I tried counting abcxyzabcxabcde.......draw a line at the top of the correction and at the bottom...odds are it is going to be a continuation wave of the down move off 150ish...wait for it and make pips off impulse waves......now, back to counting........http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Thank you Tim. It is true trying to count waves on the lower time frames is starting to wear me down. I am actually already starting to scale out of my counting. I used to count down to the 1mim chart and doing that on the GBPJPY alone. But my reasons then was to get more adept at counting by practicing more often. That was focus on just 1 pair so I can get to know it better while practicing counting on all tfs plus its volatiltiy. It sure was a rough bumpy ride. But I think I got a load of practice from that. Not saying I had enough coz I still need more.
I am scaling out to the 5min and the 15min these days coz my MM is not as relaxing as that of others maybe. I guess I am feeling some pressure to get to the turns sooner than later to avoid any loss. But YES, I will keep trying to scale out some more like the 1hour and 4hour next time. And lower TFs only for timing the entries.
hhhhmmmmmm it may still sound the same for others... but in truth it is not.
Basing trades on the higher TF like 1hr or the 4hr gives traders less signals therefore less trades to monitor compared to getting signals on the 15min and less charts.
Anyway, I have set my SL at 38 pips total. so if it goes down, I get to profit on the way down. But I will hold on to my Long trades and suffer the drawdown as it completes the Corrective wave. Then allow it to recover while I get in again at the bottom for another long trade after the correction.
I am doing this because I believe that the longer term wave count is still bullish. Otherwise I would have to get out of my Long trade now.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#1511
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 9, 2008 1:03am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by adji04 http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
===
clear,...today i'm hedging too B 4720 SL 4695 TP 4760..
thx for "warning" sign....http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/winking.gif
Hey adji04
I think you mis understood why I brought up those scenarios and why I am trading this way. I was not warning anyone that the price is going up. I just presented scenarios I thought were possible based on my wave counts which are quite numerous.
I am not saying I know how to hedge and I sure hope you do not just base your entries on my wave counts.
You have to have a reason why you are hedging and must really be able to accept your SL incase it gets hit. ( I am not saying you do not have a good reason for what you just did) Just cautioning you here.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#1512
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 9, 2008 1:24am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EURUSD
Price went up to 1.4733 breeching Daily R2 @ 1.4732
Weekly Pivot @ 1.4737 is still close by. It could still try and take that out.
next hurdle is yesterdays high @ 1.4740 then
Daily R2 @ 1.4747 followed by
1.4770 which is Daily R3 and Murrey Math Major Support and Resistance Level and 50% of yesterdays Range.
Price is currently between the weekly pivot @ 1.4737 and the Daily Pivot @ 1.4709.
But already broke out to the upside of the downward channel on the 1hr chart.
15min chart shows an upward channel for now.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#1513
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 9, 2008 3:22am
adji04
Member
Member Since Dec 2006
56 Posts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Price went up to 1.4733 breeching Daily R2 @ 1.4732
Weekly Pivot @ 1.4737 is still close by. It could still try and take that out.
next hurdle is yesterdays high @ 1.4740 then
Daily R2 @ 1.4747 followed by
1.4770 which is Daily R3 and Murrey Math Major Support and Resistance Level and 50% of yesterdays Range.
Price is currently between the weekly pivot @ 1.4737 and the Daily Pivot @ 1.4709.
But already broke out to the upside of the downward channel on the 1hr chart.
15min chart shows an upward channel for now.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
====
EG, luckyly, i closed buy position manually in minutes bef jump down occurred (-6pips).. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/winking.gif with this current position still favor down targets 4658..
EG, i still refered U suggestion...thxhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/notworthy.gif
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#1514
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 9, 2008 6:43am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD
Here is a view on the 4 hour chart of GBPUSD.
I would love to get more of this set ups.
Bullish Harmonic Patterns already present on the
15min
30min
60min
1440min Daily
5min is potentially playing out a wave 4 up of 240min
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77554&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199878712
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#1515
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 9, 2008 7:15am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD Alternative scenario
move from 1.9652 going down now could be the last wave 5 of the sub wave 5 of what seems to be a near ending diagonal triangle.
The ending diagonal triangle does not fit that well into the structure. just nearly. so be careful.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77561&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199880270
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Jan 9, 2008 9:19am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EURUSD
EURUSD
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77598&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199888356 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77599&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199888356 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77600&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199888376
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1517
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 9, 2008 10:24am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EURUSD
EURUSD
Have managed to to reduce potential net loss to -19 by exiting a short trade then entering at a slightly higher level
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77605&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199891706
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#1518
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 9, 2008 2:01pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD
GBPUSD Heads up for me
Price has breached FE 161.8 of A not so much . But the fact that it has breached that level puts a doubt on whether wave C has ended
Or pair is currently developing the wave 3 down.
But looking at the 15min chart, I see another ending diagonal triangle.
Could this be a case of "An ending diagonal wave 5 to end an ending diagonal wave 5 of a higher degree with a throwover to finish off a higher degree wave C"?
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77682&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199905249 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77683&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199905249
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Jan 9, 2008 4:41pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD
Triangles abound
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77720&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199914853
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1521
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 9, 2008 7:38pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EURUSD
EURUSD
Adjusted / Revised my wave count on EURUSD 15min TF
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
update
pinbar followed by what could be a bearish candle
this may not align with my wave count if that pin bar indicates a reversal now. Wave 2 normally retraces beteween 50-61.8% up to 100% of wave 1.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77766&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199925421
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Jan 9, 2008 7:55pm
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#1522
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 9, 2008 7:54pm
adji04
Member
Member Since Dec 2006
56 Posts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
EURUSD
Adjusted / Revised my wave count on EURUSD 15min TF
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
======
step by step i understand how elliotwave works....http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
thx EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/thumbsup.gif
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#1523
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 9, 2008 8:13pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by adji04 http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
======
step by step i understand how elliotwave works....http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
thx EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/thumbsup.gif
Good for you adji04...
For EURUSD, it is also likely that the fist Zigzag UP on the 15min chart is just the wave A of a more complex wave 2 which would then develop further and reach 50-61.8% or more retracement required.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77784&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199927923
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#1524
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 9, 2008 8:44pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD
GBPUSD Potential Scenario
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77786&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199929422
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#1525
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 9, 2008 8:49pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EURUSD
Tracking EURUSD Route
need to unload my long trade from 1.4718 @ BE or minimal LOSS
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
replaced chart to correct error on "v" position to sit beside "1"
EURUSD Progress....1107 HRS
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77790&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199929956 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77804&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199934063
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Jan 9, 2008 10:01pm
Jan 9, 2008 10:09pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EURUSD jive
Notice the RED Box on the chart:
This is where I am looking at EURUSD potentially reversing
50% retrace of wave 1 @ 1.4690 ( Red FIB Retracement Tool )
FE 161.8 Projection of Wave C based on relationship with wave A @ 1.4696 ( Green FIB Extention Tool )
FE 61.8 Projection if a complex zigzagA + flatB + impulse C (Blue FIB Extention Tool )
Also within range where edge of channel is found for Guideline on channeling.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77812&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199934848
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1527
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 9, 2008 10:23pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD wave 4 Triangle
Triangle expected to finish on the 15min Chart of GBPUSD
Triangle is wave 4 followed by wave 5 to potentially end wave 3 of Bigger wave 5
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77814&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199935368
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#1528
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 9, 2008 11:23pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD wave 5 of wave 3
A triple Top has formed which completes the Triangle for wave 4.
Price now DIPS for wave 5 of wave 3 down to 1.9522
To be followed by a Bounce for the bigger wave 4 towards :
FIB Retracement Levels:
23.6% @ 1.9594
38.2% @ 1.9639
50% @ 1.9675
61.8% @ 1.9711
1.9633 38.2% into the previous day's Range from below
1.9657 50% of previous Day's Range
1.9682 61.8% of previous day's range
1.9740 Daily Pivot Strong Resistance Level
1.9825 weekly Pivot ****
Sorry about the delay. I had to re type the whole text because I accidentally pressed the refresh button.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77830&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199938819 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77832&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199939138
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#1529
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 10, 2008 12:06am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
GBPUSD
scalped during the US session to earn 9 pips
earlier had a Long GBPUSD trade. exited for -36pips
then traded the wave 5 after the triangle and exited for 20 pips
over all, have loss of only 7 pips on this pair
*** did not wait for the bounce off 1.9522
EURUSD
Exited half position of last nights long trade at equivalent to -16pips
Entered Short trade @ 1.4685 which looked like the end of an ENDING Diagonal Wave C of this corrective wave.
overall on EURUSD
+59pips
-16pips
-58pips (on 3 opposite trades :-19 long: -39 short)
It is still very possible for EURUSD to reach my RED BOX Target where a lot of projection levels converge and still nake a biger or longer ending Diagonal wave C. I may just exit the last Longtrade at that level.
Then we start with the Longer Wave 3 Down....
hhhmmmm sometimes I get confused as I am doing GBPUSD Counts too. So if you notice me off track, kindly give me a nudge...
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#1530
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 10, 2008 1:03am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EURUSD
1.4690 Achieved by EURUSD
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77857&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199944981
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Jan 10, 2008 2:10am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EURUSD Development
EURUSD Development
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77869&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199949037
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1532
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 10, 2008 2:21am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
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Exited trade for 16 out of 24 pips total counted in 2 positions used as standard for trade size. Actual is 8 out of 12 pips per position x 2
exited because I counted 5 impulse waves already which signals a retracement.
waiting for new entry to sell again
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77872&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199949660
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1533
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 10, 2008 2:26am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Timing it on the 1minute chart
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77873&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199949954
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#1534
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 10, 2008 2:47am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Further development on teh 1min chart for EURUSD
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77878&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199951217
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Jan 10, 2008 3:48am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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more 1min charts on EURUSD
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77898&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199954900 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77899&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199954900
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EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1540
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 10, 2008 3:51am
el grande
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Quote:
Originally Posted by adji04 http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
EG. still favor dowside with target 1.4530...correct???http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/confused.gif
because i still keep sold EU with SL 4715,4750,last 4775
Yes adji04
We are now supposed to be in a Downtrend.
Downward direction Wave C.c.5.5.3.3 if I am not mistaken
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#1541
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 10, 2008 3:58am
adji04
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Quote:
Originally Posted by el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Yes adji04
We are now supposed to be in a Downtrend.
Downward direction Wave C.c.5.5.3.3 if I am not mistaken
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
==
Thank's, EG we're same direction...http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/big_hug.gif
are U graduated from elliotwave university...????
whatever U're nice tutor...
Thx,EG and for all FF
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#1542
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 10, 2008 4:45am
el grande
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5min chart update on EURUSD
It could be that an Expanded Flat or Irregular FLAT has just developed for wave 2
Note that EW Counting on these lower timeframes are more for exercise in counting waves. It may not necessarily be beneficial in real time trading.
There could be simpler ways to scalp trades.
The effort exerted on these smaller timeframes should pay off sooner or later to allow us ease in counting waves in higher timeframes where we should really be trading from.
Learning EW takes a lot of time and Practice with dedication. Need I say PASSION too required. Otherwise, it willl be very difficult to understand. But a lot of practice and chart viewing and labelling hours are also needed.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77919&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199957950
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#1543
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 10, 2008 5:57am
el grande
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IS it just me or does anybody else see this on the EURUSD
It is like every where I turn, I see triangles or what seem like triangles forming.
Here is what could be an ending diagonal wave C on the EURUSD
Watch it bounce or BREAKOUT to the downside....
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77942&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199963318
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Jan 10, 2008 6:09am
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#1544
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 10, 2008 6:31am
el grande
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Call me chicken if you want, But I bailed out on my 2 short trades that were last placed for combined profit of 13 pips.
Actually a second batch from today's top. But, I am getting mixed signals on my EW Counts and with the News coming around, I would rather come out with my combined pips of 13 and the 16 earlier.
Leaving another 2 trades running in opposite direction still. for a ratio of (1 Short and 0.5 Long ) net Loss if closed simultaeniously is -41 pips.
Update: I just realized It could also be a Leading Diagonal Wave 1 which means it can break out to the UPSIDE to retrace wave 1 for wave 2 not to exceed not to exceed 1.4823 then it will Fall for the Wave 3. Should it exceed 1.4823, then The Bull RUN most likely has Begun
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Jan 10, 2008 7:02am
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#1545
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 10, 2008 7:16am
el grande
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I probably got this now...
Looks more like a LEADING Diagonal Wave 1 as structure looks like a 53535.
53535 Wave 1 or wave A
33333 Wave 4 or wave X or wave B
So if this is Leading Diagonal wave 1 then expect an upward move for the retracement for wave 2 around 61.8% @ 1.4750 or higher before it comes down again.
Most likely safer to enter a SHORT trade after sub wave 2 of the wave 3 down.
Otherwise a Long trade at the breakout above 1.4823
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77964&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199967607
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Jan 10, 2008 8:20am
el grande
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Still a possibility as if price goes higher than 1.4700 on EURUSD
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77979&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199971185
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1548
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 10, 2008 8:37am
adji04
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with reffered last EU chart
myself take long after 4715 break target TP 4750. today my sold position already closed (hit target-4730).
another scenario,i willtake sold if 4670 Didn't break with target 4500
and if 4700 break i will take buy target 4750...
thx,EG...http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
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#1549
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 10, 2008 10:13am
el grande
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adjusted Magenta trendlines to FIT the Leading Diagonal Wave 1 which abruptly completed with the news.
Now challenging the 61.8% retracement level for wave 2.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=78019&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199978012
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#1550
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 10, 2008 10:15am
el grande
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Quote:
Originally Posted by adji04 http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
with reffered last EU chart
myself take long after 4715 break target TP 4750. today my sold position already closed (hit target-4730).
another scenario,i willtake sold if 4670 Didn't break with target 4500
and if 4700 break i will take buy target 4750...
thx,EG...http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Looks like your Long Trades went well for you my friend.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#1551
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 10, 2008 2:32pm
el grande
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EURUSD
This price movement going up seems to me shows bias for EURUSD to be back on the BULL Trend.
I can not consider this as a corrective wave because Maximum C can be is 1.618 of A. This is already more than 2.618 of A. SO below FE 161.8 can be considered as ABC corrective wave. but if wave supposed to be "C" is more than FE 161.8, then this should be considered as wave 3 already and not wave C.
I would think that this is now part of a 12345 set of Impulse Waves
and most likely we have just seen the top of wave 3 @ 1.4813 and should be followed by at least a 23.6% retracement though normally by 38.2% for a wave 4.
On the argument that this could be a triangle 4th wave, structure needs to be 33333. that means 5 Zigzags in the triangle. I would say that considering this wave 4 as a triangle opens up a wider range for price to move as we could have a contracting triangle and even an expanding triangle. and a barrier triangle which would have different price leveles as limits.
Most likely, using the guide for diffrentiating an abc from a 12345 impulse wave would come very handy in trading the waves this time.
EGhttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/images/smilies/smile.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=78103&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199993490
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#1552
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 10, 2008 2:51pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar56736_1.gifBeartrade
Most Truth is rather dogmatic...
Member Since Dec 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/8kt.gif72 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif a question
Hi EG
Its been REALLY long time since ive done any work with EWT, but i have a question. As far as the wave relationships, shouldnt have wave one been much shorter? Its quite a bit shorter than wave 3 as you presented, so are we expecting a really short 5th?
Just trying to brush up
Thanks for the great thread
Lawrence a.k.a. The Bear
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#1553
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 10, 2008 5:44pm
el grande
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Beartrade http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Hi EG
Its been REALLY long time since ive done any work with EWT, but i have a question. As far as the wave relationships, shouldnt have wave one been much shorter? Its quite a bit shorter than wave 3 as you presented, so are we expecting a really short 5th?
Just trying to brush up
Thanks for the great thread
Lawrence a.k.a. The Bear
Hello Lawrence....
Which chart are you refering to and what post number is it in?
Anyway, as far as I know, among waves 1 3 and 5 the rule is that wave 3 cannot be the shortest.
Relationships can be illustrated as below :
w3 > w1 > w5
w3 > w1 = w5
w1 > w3 > w5
w5 > w3 > w1
But suppose to be never as below. But I think there was an exception. Let me just look for that because it just might be possible in a triangle with a throwover or throwunder. just not that sure now. Will get back to you a little later. Thank you for asking the question. Now I must find out and be sure....
w5 > w1 > w3
w1 > w5 > w3
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Jan 10, 2008 6:01pm
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#1554
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 10, 2008 5:56pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar56736_1.gifBeartrade
Most Truth is rather dogmatic...
Member Since Dec 2007
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Post $1551
I was referring to the possible count starting at about 8:00cst this morning.
wave 1 1.4638 to 1.4747
wave 2 1.4747 to 1.4722
wave 3 1.4722 to 1.4787
and then we have the question of waves 4 and 5...
It really looks like a failed 5th to me, i know that is rare in the major pairs, but most of this today was emotion driven, imo... and the run just ran out of steam.
Like i said, im just trying to dust off my ewt http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/big_grin.gif
regards
Bear
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#1555
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 10, 2008 5:58pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar56736_1.gifBeartrade
Most Truth is rather dogmatic...
Member Since Dec 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/8kt.gif72 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif forgot to finish my post... lol
and, the 5th wave failure, if i remember correctly, would match up with the rest of this unusual wave count, large first wave, moderate third, tiny or failed fifth.
Just food for thought
Thanks again
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#1556
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 10, 2008 6:13pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar28436_15.gif4x_Trader
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Nice inputs kabayan El Grande keep it up tol!http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/winking.gif
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#1557
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 10, 2008 7:04pm
adji04
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wave 4 or wave 5http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/confused.gif..
myself pivot stay 4825.if 4825 broken, take buy target 4860 and if 4825 failed take sold taget 4750...
EG,last night after hit target 1.4750..i take another sold position with SL 4775..after a minutes market didn't respon to retrace down and my ISP lost connection too..http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/sad.gif
in a last minute, i closed position (-14), and today very surprise to me that EU going up 4825..
Thx, EG
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#1558
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 10, 2008 7:21pm
el grande
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2 scenarios for me on EURUSD
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=78195&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1200010849
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#1559
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 10, 2008 7:42pm
el grande
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Beartrade http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
I was referring to the possible count starting at about 8:00cst this morning.
wave 1 1.4638 to 1.4747
wave 2 1.4747 to 1.4722
wave 3 1.4722 to 1.4787
and then we have the question of waves 4 and 5...
It really looks like a failed 5th to me, i know that is rare in the major pairs, but most of this today was emotion driven, imo... and the run just ran out of steam.
Like i said, im just trying to dust off my ewt http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/big_grin.gif
regards
Bear
Bear...
This was how I saw it...
Now in the chart previous to this post, my thought s are if it goes higher than 1.4813 then the triangle is a wave 4 and going up is wave 5.
But if it breaks out to the down side and goes lower than 1.4785, I would be inclined to believe that yes we had a failed wave 5 there and no triangle wave 4.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
okay I think I have to correct myself here as this breakdown may not just be a bear trend resumption but a wave 4 retracement down to 23.6 or to 38.2 %.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=78205&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1200012130
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Jan 10, 2008 9:07pm
el grande
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Ok .... here goes
EURUSD Chart
First 3 wave sare classified as A or 1 ; B or 2 then C or 3
-if 2nd point exceeds origin of first point, then we rule out wave 1 and 2 as wave 2 never goes beyond origin of wave 1
-if 3rd point exceeds 1.618 of A, then we rule out wave C
Looking at the chart again and checking the price legs, we see 3rd point exceeding 1.618 of A.
Therefore, to me price is in a a set of impulsive waves 12345 and currently developing a wave 4.
Now why wave 4 still...
wave 4 is related to overall time it takes from w0 to w3 and is normaly expanding correctively sideways. Could be 23.6% retrace if trend very strong
or normally 38.2 - 50% normally
but can be till 61.8%
if more than 61.8% retracement of wave 3 occurrs, a failed 5th or truncated 5th follows
So first , time wise I think it is still in a 4th. so no failed 5th yet to my mind.
Structurally, looks more like it is making an expanded corrective FLAT which more likely will have a wave C = 1.618 of A. note ticked levels
Another thing about the failed 5th possibility is that, if we look at the internal structure of that leg, it does not look like a 5 wave impulse but a 3 wave structed wave. so it must be a wave B.
Hoping I covered the whole ground to narrow down probability of identifying the waves here.
ooopppps. more to add:
if price is in a wave 4 of a wave 3 , then it should be followed by a wave 5 of same degree. w1 of 3 looks extended and is longer than w3 of 3. so wave 5 of 3 must be shorter than wave 3 of 3.
this should then be followed by a retracement of the wave 3 to get the wave 4. ( It would look like 2nd guessing the markets to some ) However, since we have the rules of EWT, why not try to apply them with its full might and force http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif it at least gives you a probable scenario. ( it can still have turn out differently. but at least you have 1 scene where you have an ideal scenario based on applying the EW rules.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=78242&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1200017248
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Jan 10, 2008 9:34pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1562
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 10, 2008 9:23pm
Learntocount
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eg, Here's my take from the all time high under 150......abc down...a=c........ wave 1 up...wave two did not retrace as far as we thought...we were looking for another day or two of dollar strength for a deeper retrace, but we did get 38.2% which is the yellow line....now wave 3.......alternate count shows well on the 1 day but if you call the first abc down as an A then our B here will make the pattern an irregular flat as it goes above 150......price action will clarify....either option is up and buy dips.........BTW our initial drop is just past the 23.6% fibo for our wave 3 that took us to just under 150...that amount of retrace is acceptable during strong trends...which we have.....and that is why it does leave the door open for the alternate count to eventually do 38%........
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=78247&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1200018010
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#1563
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 10, 2008 9:55pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Additional assumptions
since wave 3 shorter than wave 1, then wave 5 must be shorter than wave 3.
Taking a fib retracement tool to measure wave 3 size then moving fib tool to possible shortest end of wave 4 of 3, for possible maximum of wave 5 of 3, we get 1.4872 as target before it retraces wave 3 of higher degree for the wave 4 which should be in the range of 1.4819 down to 1.4756 before shooting b4 rallying for the wave 5 towards 150 or higher.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=78260&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1200020010
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Jan 13, 2008 3:16am
FxMt
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Member Since Aug 2007
55 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon5.gif GBPJPY count
Hi EG & others,
what do you think about GBPJPY?
This is my count, I think we are currently finishing wC3 in a subwave (5)3, target the area 210,6/209,5 before we head for corrective C4 up ? What bothers me is that this (5)3 is unclear to me but I think we are not finished with it and C3 until 210/209 -ish.
EDIT: error in count, we are in C(3)53v, right ?
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=78698&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1200212052 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=78699&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1200212076 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=78700&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1200212093
Last edited by FxMt, Jan 13, 2008 4:43am
Jan 13, 2008 4:45am
FxMt
Member
Member Since Aug 2007
55 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Error in count corrected
I noticed an error in my count, we are in C(3)53v, but iii is 361,8 extended !?
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=78705&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1200217530
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1571
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 13, 2008 6:39pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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FxMt
Looks like our counts are basically the same on GBPJPY except for the pportion of my C333.
The C335 leg for me does not yet exhibit clear wave structures for a 12345 impulse 5th wave. So I only have projection for ppotential end which are FE 261.8 @ 210.71 and FE 300.0 @ 208.14
While based on the Guide;ine of Equalit, C335 or C33 could end @ 210.42
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
FxMt.....
I would appreciate it if you continue to post your GBPJPY or other pair EW charts here. Everyone is welcome to post their EW charts in this thread. This threadwas meant for EW discussion , that is why I placed this in the Discussion area and not in the Journal Division. So, keep those EW charts coming.
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EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#1572
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 13, 2008 6:46pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EURUSD
1.4811 now.
Looking for a possible pullback/ retracement from 1.4818 (for wave2 )which was Fridays closing high.
If price breaks 1.4818 now, this is most likely to continue higher as it develops wave 3. otherwise I would look for a pull back towards 1.4708 which is the 61.8% retracement
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
on second thought, if this is wave 2 now B @ 1.4815 is too close to what could be the origin of A @ 1.4818. This means for C=100A (1.4770) and C=A1.618 (1.4742) .
If it goes lower than that still, then the move down from 1.4818 becomes an impulse wave structure instead of a corrective wave.
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#1573
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 14, 2008 5:00am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD and EURUSD
Ending Diagonal 5 to finish wave C down.
Followed by a reversal. now looking for a 5 wave impulse UP then a 3 wave pull back, so we can trade the wave C or 3 going UP.
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PS. EURUSD ma be in for a wave 2 retrace now toward 1.4798 or lower towards 1.4767 or 1.4737.
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#1574
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 14, 2008 12:01pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY Targets from Monday Asian Session
Asian Monday session:
GBPJPY Targets for the end of wave 3 within wave 3 of a wave C down:
Based on Fib Extention:
FE 261.8 210.71 achieved @ 210.71 to the pip on my chart
FE 300.0 208.14
Based on Wave Equality
w5 = w1 210.42
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__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#1575
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 14, 2008 8:24pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD scenario
Applying Reasoning and Logic based on the Rules and Guidelines.
Let us see if GBPUSD will respect the EW Rules and Guidelines..... Unless it is my understanding of these which is flawed....
Price was lowest at 1.9481. if we consider C = A 1.618, then price has just exceeded this by a few pips. ( to me it is not substantial to disregard its being end of C.
2nd is, if this is to be considered as a wave 3 and not as a wave C, I think the rule that a triangle can not be found at the end of a wave 3 will be broken.
Another thing is the 53535 structure which this triangle sports.
Therefore, I would be more inclined to consider this as an ending diagonal wave 5 of a wave C, which would then lead me to be bias that GBPUSD has had its corrective bottom at 1.9481.
If my reasoning or logic is flawed, kindly help me out on this one.
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__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS