Dec 28, 2008 10:48am
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UsdJpy chart,,
It looks good for short trade,, wt u guys think?
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=186246&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1230479319
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Rocroy
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Well, alternation is one of the guidelines, so it often takes place. But not always. Also, the guideline does not say "how sharp" corr is or "how long" does the sideways moves take. It is just a generic principle.
So in this case those next moves that I sketched feel imo most probable, considering other pairs as well, like swissie.
If that support for the euro fails, then there is the next support at 1.3150, and if that fails too then there is a good reason to re-evaluate the count.
Other options for the euro count exist, like FXoffshore and Blue have earlier showed.
R
Quote:
Originally Posted by doji http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Hi, Rocroy. I agree with your EUR/USD count.
But, based on the alternation principle, shouldn't we be expecting a sharp Wave 4 retracement given that Wave 2 went sideways (and took its own sweet time doing so)?
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#1107
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 28, 2008 11:05am
Barak's pip
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif eur\chf
what do you say about this count on the monthly chart?
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=186250&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1230480271
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#1108
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 28, 2008 12:27pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue bottle http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
UsdJpy chart,,
It looks good for short trade,, wt u guys think?
I share the same view, only that for me to be a setup it is needed that price goes a bit higher in the 91.3-91.5 price zone where we have a good confluence.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=186263&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1230485272
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#1109
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 28, 2008 3:33pm
swiftpip
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Quote:
Originally Posted by soso http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
I share the same view, only that for me to be a setup it is needed that price goes a bit higher in the 91.3-91.5 price zone where we have a good confluence.
I am a newbie with EW and have been trying to learn from everyone here. This is my first time posting a chart so here goes. I was watching the 91.25 area for wave c of 4 to end. Any input on my count is appreciated. Just trying to determine how my learning is going.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=186286&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1230496202
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#1110
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 28, 2008 5:46pm
pipeye
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Cable
Quote:
Originally Posted by el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
IMHO I think USDCAD is still in a wave 4 of a wave 3 or possibly forming a BARRIER TRIANGLE or a FLAT Triangle on the DAILY CHART. THAT is just my take on this pair now. BUT I would not trade/BUY this until it BREAKS out from that 1.3100 level.
THE PURPLE (IV) is too short in time in relation to the purple (II). That is why I think the (IV) is not yet finished. BUT once price breaks the 1.3100 level, then I would take that cue as the Looney being in the wave 5 already.
NOTE that there is a probability IMO that wave 5 will not be that powerful...
Hi el grande,
Would you be able to post your current count for cable?
Dec 29, 2008 4:34am
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EURUSD
EURUHSD 4H.
I am looking at this current move up as being a correction. Near 1.438 is a good confluence level and that's where I will look for a short setup.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=186408&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1230543265
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 29, 2008 4:43am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by swiftpip http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
I am a newbie with EW and have been trying to learn from everyone here. This is my first time posting a chart so here goes. I was watching the 91.25 area for wave c of 4 to end. Any input on my count is appreciated. Just trying to determine how my learning is going.
Your count looks good swiftpip although if you try to be a perfectionist then you'd have a hard time subdividing w3 in 5 impulses.
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#1114
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Walad100100
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Any indicators or strategy?
I'm new to this thread so pls. excuse my ignorance.
I saw the beautifully attached charts that show the EWs. Are these done manually or you have good indicators that generate these lines automatically. I was trying to check the early posts of this thread but I found none.
Any pointers?
Last edited by Walad100100, Dec 29, 2008 7:21am
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#1115
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swiftpip
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Quote:
Originally Posted by soso http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Your count looks good swiftpip although if you try to be a perfectionist then you'd have a hard time subdividing w3 in 5 impulses.
Thanks Soso. I feel like I am getting the hang of it until I see price movements like this morning. Now I am looking at the charts trying to see how this move in USDJPY fits into the counts, or how the counts fit into this move.
Tim
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#1116
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 29, 2008 8:44am
swiftpip
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Walad100100 http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
I'm new to this thread so pls. excuse my ignorance.
I saw the beautifully attached charts that show the EWs. Are these done manually or you have good indicators that generate these lines automatically. I was trying to check the early posts of this thread but I found none.
Any pointers?
As a fellow newbie, the charts with the counts and labeling are done manually. I have been studying EW now for about 5 months and can tell you it takes time and patience to learn, and I am far from done with learning.
Good luck in your trading.
Tim
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#1117
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 29, 2008 9:07am
Walad100100
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I believe you swiftpip, as I am aware of the theortical part of this methodology of trading. For that reason I was asking about if our people here are using some indicator in order to mitigate the burden of the EW analysis at least.
Thanks Tim.
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#1118
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 29, 2008 2:39pm
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif Let wave 3 down begin in Euro
Quote:
Originally Posted by soso http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
EURUHSD 4H. I am looking at this current move up as being a correction. Near 1.438 is a good confluence level and that's where I will look for a short setup.
I agree. The bearish correction since Dec 19 1.3822 has been in 3 waves, and has taken too much time (plus overlaps) to be an impulse. Now the proof is in with todays move below 1.4018 eliminating any upward impulse count possibilities.
My first entry target is the next retracement into the 1.31 range, to catch the 6 months of wave (C) down to 1.16 range.
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=186577&thumb=1&d=1230587701
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Last edited by FXoffshore, Dec 29, 2008 4:57pm
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#1119
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Barak's pip
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FXoffshore http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
I agree. The bearish correction since Dec 19 1.3822 has been in 3 waves, and has taken too much time (plus overlaps) to be an impulse. Now the proof is in with todays move below 1.4018 eliminating any upward impulse count possibilities.
My first entry target is the next retracement into the 1.31 range, to catch the 6 months of wave (C) down to 1.16 range.
Attachment 186577
hey ,
so , if I got you ok , you think we haven't seen yet wave no. 3 . as in the chart attached ?
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=186587&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1230589971
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#1120
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 30, 2008 7:05pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Barak's pip http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
hey , so , if I got you ok , you think we haven't seen yet wave no. 3 . as in the chart attached ?
I favor that the fall from 1.60 to 1.23 was (A), however it could be 1. My second choice is A of (A) of .
I think we are working out a (B) wave now. It has the price height required at .618, but needs weeks more time - as I believe wave B must be (at least) equal to A in time or more. B cannot be less than A for time, unless it is in a triangle, so that means a lot of choppy/sideways price action, but favoring down in January.
If I look at the monthly and weekly charts, Eur/Usd has been in A-B-C waves since the 1970's at least. The monthly charts look like a test of .80 is possible over the next 5-10 years. USD swings in 7-10 year cycles in the past.
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#1121
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 30, 2008 7:43pm
Barak's pip
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FXoffshore http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
I favor that the fall from 1.60 to 1.23 was (A), however it could be 1. My second choice is A of (A) of .
I think we are working out a (B) wave now. It has the price height required at .618, but needs weeks more time - as I believe wave B must be (at least) equal to A in time or more. B cannot be less than A for time, unless it is in a triangle, so that means a lot of choppy/sideways price action, but favoring down in January.
If I look at the monthly and weekly charts, Eur/Usd has been in A-B-C waves since the 1970's at least. The monthly...
hi again ,
it's a good point , when you look at it that way ,a lot of pairs are in a-b-c's or 1-2-3's for years , check out usdjpy .
for the nearest future , I preffer the plan in the attached chat - when a break of 1.3825 will change it , but for now I'll be thinking it as long when the final approval will be a breakout of 1.4720 ... any thoughts ?
happy new year !!!
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=186940&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1230683959
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#1122
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 31, 2008 7:09am
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UsdChf chart..
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=187038&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1230725381
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#1123
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 31, 2008 7:19am
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EurGbp Chart,,
Finally falling?
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=187039&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1230725941
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#1124
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Dec 31, 2008 1:46pm
swiftpip
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif UJ update
updated count on UJ. Still looking for c of C of 4 to complete. Looking for short entry above 91.20.
Alternate count could be that this A-B-C was wave A of 4.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=187188&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1230748884
Jan 5, 2009 12:15am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
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hi all,
wt u guys think abt my usdjpy chart?
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=187885&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1231132515
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 5, 2009 12:51am
SunTrader http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue bottle http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
hi all,
wt u guys think abt my usdjpy chart?
Looks good to me. Only thing is on my H1 chart I see only a Wave A so far.
Could be that wave 1 is wave A and wave 2 is wave B and wave 3/4/5 is 1/2/3 of Wave C. More trading bars will tell.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=187894&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1231134659
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#1128
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 5, 2009 5:04am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SunTrader http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Looks good to me. Only thing is on my H1 chart I see only a Wave A so far.
Could be that wave 1 is wave A and wave 2 is wave B and wave 3/4/5 is 1/2/3 of Wave C. More trading bars will tell.
Thanks SunTrader.
I see no movement in UsdCad pair last few days..http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/sad.gif
Attached my 1min chart..
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=187950&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1231149836
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#1129
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 5, 2009 5:21am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue bottle http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Thanks SunTrader.
I see no movement in UsdCad pair last few days..http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/sad.gif
Attached my 1min chart..
My target 50pips reached in no time. Trading small TF to kill time & for fun..
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=187954&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1231150858
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Jan 5, 2009 5:52am
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EurChf chart
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 5, 2009 7:27am
Rocroy
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif UJ chart
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#1132
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 5, 2009 10:12am
swiftpip
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif UJ
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rocroy http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Attachment 187978
I am just trying to get clarification of the guidelines for wave 4. It can not extend past wave 1, which ended around the 93.50 range, is that correct? If this was the end of wave 4, how would you count wave B. Blue Bottle, you state that you only count this as wave A. As a new EW counter, I am trying to understand these counts better.
Thanks
Tim
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#1133
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 5, 2009 10:25am
Rocroy
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You are right, wave 1 and 4 should not overlap.
I haven't marked wave a, b, and c in the correction. This move could contain all of them, or we could only have wave a here. The point in the chart is that (if the count is correct) is gives you a good chance for shorting with tight sl.
Anyway, here's my 4h chart, hopefully that makes things more clear.
Quote:
Originally Posted by swiftpip http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
I am just trying to get clarification of the guidelines for wave 4. It can not extend past wave 1, which ended around the 93.50 range, is that correct? If this was the end of wave 4, how would you count wave B. Blue Bottle, you state that you only count this as wave A. As a new EW counter, I am trying to understand these counts better.
Thanks
Tim
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=188036&thumb=1&d=1231169058
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#1134
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 5, 2009 10:27am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
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Quote:
Originally Posted by swiftpip http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
I am just trying to get clarification of the guidelines for wave 4. It can not extend past wave 1, which ended around the 93.50 range, is that correct? If this was the end of wave 4, how would you count wave B. Blue Bottle, you state that you only count this as wave A. As a new EW counter, I am trying to understand these counts better.
Thanks
Tim
Hi Tim,
i think u got me wrong. I counted w4 as abc & i believe wC was ended at 93.5. This way, w4 is not into w1 area & no EW rules are broken too.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=188038&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1231169262
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#1135
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 5, 2009 11:11am
swiftpip
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue bottle http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Hi Tim,
i think u got me wrong. I counted w4 as abc & i believe wC was ended at 93.5. This way, w4 is not into w1 area & no EW rules are broken too.
Thanks for the clarification. I will continue to practice my counts.
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#1136
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 5, 2009 3:57pm
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Speaking of EW schools you guys might check out Robert Miner's new book (High Probability Trading Strategies), not focused on EW only but highly practical strategies built around simple EW analysis.
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#1137
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 5, 2009 5:25pm
SunTrader http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
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Soso,
Miner is exactly the guy I do follow and his belief (mine too) is that EW's are present only about 50% of the time and it is not neccessary to label every zig and zag.
Just like day follows night and night follows day, and numerous other balances of nature and life, noise follows EW's and EW's follow noise.
I leave the noise alone.
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Sun
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#1138
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 5, 2009 11:58pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
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my EurChf chart..
I recounted it as impulse waves..
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_6cah8sG6L8o/SWLg_H4GynI/AAAAAAAAAFY/z07VOlqS0iY/s1600-h/eurchf+h1.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=188288&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1231217924
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Jan 8, 2009 1:38am
hymns
Member
Member Since Oct 2006
5 Posts
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As you seen yesterday market has perform to complete wave c (white) and also wave 4 (yellow). Now we have 2 situation here. Either market to climbing to complete wave 3 (white) or wave 2/b (orange). Good luck!
*Correct me if i'm wrong http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/peace.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=189191&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1231396636 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=189192&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1231396636
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1142
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 8, 2009 9:23am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/3kt.gif594 Posts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hymns http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
As you seen yesterday market has perform to complete wave c (white) and also wave 4 (yellow). Now we have 2 situation here. Either market to climbing to complete wave 3 (white) or wave 2/b (orange). Good luck!
*Correct me if i'm wrong http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/peace.gif
Hi all,
My gbpJpy chart. After some struggle managed to read it.
What you guys think? Any correction??
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=189332&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1231424590
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#1143
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 8, 2009 12:37pm
hymns
Member
Member Since Oct 2006
5 Posts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue bottle http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Hi all,
My gbpJpy chart. After some struggle managed to read it.
What you guys think? Any correction??
Yeah same with my counting. Blue Bottle which pair you focus on your trade?
__________________
http://elliot-wave-analysis.blogspot.com
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#1144
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 8, 2009 12:39pm
pkimnyc
Senior Member
Member Since Oct 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/10+kt.gif2,918 Posts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue bottle http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Hi all,
My gbpJpy chart. After some struggle managed to read it.
What you guys think? Any correction??
nice count blue. now, it's very clear. thanks.
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#1145
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 8, 2009 5:03pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar78604_1.gifamirhabibi
Member
Member Since Aug 2008
40 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EURUSD
EURUSD M30
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=189489&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1231452194
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#1146
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 8, 2009 5:58pm
fry2010
Senior Member
Member Since Mar 2008
776 Posts
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I read that gbpjpy as the end of extended fifth wave on weekly chart. I agree with the intended move to upside tho.
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#1147
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 8, 2009 6:39pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar25165_1.gifmarketwavez
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif768 Posts
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Last edited by marketwavez, Jan 8, 2009 9:27pm
Jan 8, 2009 6:39pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar25165_1.gifmarketwavez
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif768 Posts
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Us Dollar
Usd/Chf
----------------------------
Double Bottom Formation ?
----------------------------
http://i43.tinypic.com/20ft01t.gif
Last edited by marketwavez, Jan 8, 2009 9:27pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1148
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 11, 2009 1:27am
ninohoang
Member
Member Since Jun 2008
30 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Need EW experts' advice
I am still learning EW analysis. I've tried to come up with EW count on eurusd daily chart. Although I have a few scenarios, this is the best count that I can come up with so far (image attached). If it's correct, then I think the wave 5:3 up move is underway?. That coincides with the cross up of the momentum indicator below the chart. Please, EW experts tell me whether my count is alright. Thanks for your replies.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=190132&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1231655228
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#1149
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 11, 2009 7:51am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar68941_1.gifSlight
Member
Member Since May 2008
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/1kt.gif252 Posts
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I have something different. Last move up was a wave b of a correction, wave c downwards has started already and should be in for new lows on the daily TF.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=190165&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1231678291
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my trading-blog
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#1150
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 11, 2009 9:40pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/3kt.gif594 Posts
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UsdChf 15mins Chart..
Completing 5 waves..
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=190322&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1231727983
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#1151
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 11, 2009 9:56pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/3kt.gif594 Posts
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GbpJpy Hourly Chart..
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=190325&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1231728991
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#1152
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 12, 2009 12:22am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/3kt.gif594 Posts
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Triangle in EurChf?
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=190382&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1231737734
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#1153
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 12, 2009 4:16am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/3kt.gif594 Posts
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hi all,
my cable chart...
Seems like w4 is forming as expanding triangle..
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=190431&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1231751755
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#1154
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 12, 2009 4:21am
belekas
Senior Member
Member Since Sep 2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue bottle http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
hi all,
my cable chart...
Seems like w4 is forming as expanding triangle..
Yes looks like expanding triangle. Might turn into diamond later http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/winking.gif
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#1155
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 12, 2009 4:44am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/3kt.gif594 Posts
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hi all,
my usdjpy chart..
I have redraw all waves since my previous counts became invalid..
Pls commant.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=190440&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1231753425
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Jan 12, 2009 4:50am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/3kt.gif594 Posts
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usdjpy 4 hours chart.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=190450&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1231753815
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1157
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 12, 2009 5:28am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar77494_1.gifsaeidhidari
Eliot wave trader
Member Since Aug 2008
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/1kt.gif125 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif eur jpy
hi
pattern +elliot
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=190464&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1231756084 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=190465&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1231756084
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#1158
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 12, 2009 5:31am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar77494_1.gifsaeidhidari
Eliot wave trader
Member Since Aug 2008
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/1kt.gif125 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif nzd usd
nzd usd
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=190467&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1231756265 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=190468&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1231756265 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=190469&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1231756294
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#1159
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 12, 2009 5:33am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar77494_1.gifsaeidhidari
Eliot wave trader
Member Since Aug 2008
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/1kt.gif125 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif eur gbp
eur gbp
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=190470&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1231756389
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#1160
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 12, 2009 5:37am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar77494_1.gifsaeidhidari
Eliot wave trader
Member Since Aug 2008
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/1kt.gif125 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif eur usd
eur usd
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=190473&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1231756612
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#1161
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 12, 2009 5:55am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar77494_1.gifsaeidhidari
Eliot wave trader
Member Since Aug 2008
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/1kt.gif125 Posts
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usd chf
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=190480&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1231757726
Jan 12, 2009 2:35pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar47291_4.gifFXoffshore
History & Economic Cycles
Member Since Aug 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/10kt.gif206 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif Euro breaks 1.33 support
Euro broke the 1.33 support level this morning by 20 pips. This provides a 5th wave down count, and invalidates some bullish counts looking to revisit 1.47 soon. A double 3 could be the alternative, either way we should expect a move to test 1.31 and 1.29 levels if not lower.
Gold also broke the 828 support level, and oil has been moving close to a new low ahead of the others around 37.50. Confirmation is lagging with Swissy and Cable, but it should arrive in time.
The driver is falling equities. Fear trumps interest rate differentials and everything else. Watch the VIX move off its resting spot as stocks fall. This means another wave of deleveraging and risk aversion should pick up, driving USD higher and commodities lower.
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=190687&thumb=1&d=1231788907
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1166
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 12, 2009 4:39pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar77494_1.gifsaeidhidari
Eliot wave trader
Member Since Aug 2008
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/1kt.gif125 Posts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pkimnyc http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
good to see you back bro.
happy new year everyone. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Tnx
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#1167
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 12, 2009 7:23pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/3kt.gif594 Posts
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My usdchf chart..
Can we count wave 5 as expanding triangle?
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=190805&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1231806232
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#1168
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 12, 2009 9:00pm
Sixer
Member
Member Since Nov 2008
34 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EURUSD
FXoffshore,
you should reconsider your EURUSD count based on the "bigger" picture.
Sixer
http://www.boersentrendonline.de/upload/EURUSD-01-12.gif
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#1169
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 12, 2009 9:24pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar47291_4.gifFXoffshore
History & Economic Cycles
Member Since Aug 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/10kt.gif206 Posts
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I subscribe, so I saw that chart. Jim Martens is excellent. Better is the monthly chart from Dec 11th before he changed from bear to bull.
I disagree with him right now only on the short term. He sees Euro going back to 1.60 in 5 waves and I see it going below 1.20 based on the wave count.
Friday he pronounced his certainty that Euro would open higher and make a sharp move higher in wave 3. Today he is having to re-think that count as it has been invalidated by the drop below 1.3310 (wave 4 cannot enter price range of wave 1). Same with Jaime Saettele, they both changed abruptly on Dec 16 when Euro retraced high. I have not sat on the fence or changed.
Jim/Jamie have their reasons, but I think if they drilled down to look carefully at some of the sub-waves, they would be more open to 5 waves down.
I would be interested in what you see as bullish with Euro count right now, with 5 waves down? Do you have a chart to discuss?
The chart below is from my blog: http://vault.bz/2008/11/historic-charts/
http://vault.bz/up/chart/2008/11/eur-usd-monthly-1972-585x496.gif
Quote:
The extent of the decline from above 1.6000 highlights the three-wave advance from 2001. Three-wave movements are corrective so the euro could remain under pressure for some time as a test of the low .80s is possible. - Jim Martens
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=190846&thumb=1&d=1231814032
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Last edited by FXoffshore, Jan 12, 2009 9:35pm
Jan 13, 2009 10:21am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/3kt.gif594 Posts
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UsdCad 15mins chart.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=191103&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1231860097
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1175
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 13, 2009 1:48pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar77494_1.gifsaeidhidari
Eliot wave trader
Member Since Aug 2008
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/1kt.gif125 Posts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue bottle http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
UsdCad 15mins chart.
USD CAD
Perhaps end wave 3
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=191182&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1231872511
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#1176
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 13, 2009 1:53pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar77494_1.gifsaeidhidari
Eliot wave trader
Member Since Aug 2008
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/1kt.gif125 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif nzd usd
Quote:
Originally Posted by saeidhidari http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
nzd usd
nzd usd
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=191185&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1231872777
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#1177
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 13, 2009 2:20pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar77494_1.gifsaeidhidari
Eliot wave trader
Member Since Aug 2008
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/1kt.gif125 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif DXY
INDEX DOLLAR
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=191197&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1231874437
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#1178
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 13, 2009 2:27pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar77494_1.gifsaeidhidari
Eliot wave trader
Member Since Aug 2008
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/1kt.gif125 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EUR USD
EUR USD H1
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=191200&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1231874820
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#1179
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 13, 2009 2:48pm
SunTrader http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Trade the reaction not the news!
Member Since Mar 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/10+kt.gif4,413 Posts
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As I posted on EURUSD thread:
Here is another US$ index chart showing it hit today the 61.8% retracement at 2 time retracments for today and tomorrow. I am thinking though that the big fib cluster above at 86.00 area is where a pullback or reversal is more likely though.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=191209&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1231876079
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#1180
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 13, 2009 5:29pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar47291_4.gifFXoffshore
History & Economic Cycles
Member Since Aug 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/10kt.gif206 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by saeidhidari http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
EUR USD H1
When Euro moves another 55 pips lower, that wave 4 count is invalidated because 4 enters the price territory of 1 at 1.3085 or lower.
Same goes for synthetic DX index, it reached as high as 84.45, and invalidates wave.4 possiblity by breaking 84.70 - only 25 pips away.
Consider a 5 wave down count, as the first leg of impulse pattern, or A of a zig zag.
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"Expect the best - prepare for the worst" Trade Charts and commentary: http://vault.bz
Last edited by FXoffshore, Jan 13, 2009 5:42pm
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#1181
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 13, 2009 5:38pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar47291_4.gifFXoffshore
History & Economic Cycles
Member Since Aug 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/10kt.gif206 Posts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sixer http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
FXoffshore, you should reconsider your EURUSD count based on the "bigger" picture. Sixer
Hi Sixer, did you notice EWI recanted the "Euro going higher" belief today, and changed to 5 waves down? http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
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"Expect the best - prepare for the worst" Trade Charts and commentary: http://vault.bz
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#1182
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 13, 2009 6:01pm
SunTrader http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Trade the reaction not the news!
Member Since Mar 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/10+kt.gif4,413 Posts
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EWI get it wrong all the time. To think how Prechter is followed at all amazes me.
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#1183
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 14, 2009 3:09am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar77494_1.gifsaeidhidari
Eliot wave trader
Member Since Aug 2008
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/1kt.gif125 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif eur usd
eur usd h1 perhaphs end wc
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#1184
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 14, 2009 3:17am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar77494_1.gifsaeidhidari
Eliot wave trader
Member Since Aug 2008
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/1kt.gif125 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif eur jpy
eur jpy end pattern bat
end wave b
enter wave c?
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#1185
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 14, 2009 3:19am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar77494_1.gifsaeidhidari
Eliot wave trader
Member Since Aug 2008
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/1kt.gif125 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif eur gbp
eur gbp
perhaps end wave 4
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China's Shanghai Composite - Monday, April 6, 2009:
*** Last night, the Shanghai went down -0.23%. The Shanghai is on a "Negative, Relative Strength divergence"Alert-Watch.The Accelerator is positive and moving higher, and the Relative Strength is negatively divergent ... I am not liking the action of the Relative Strength right now.
http://www.stocktiming.com/images/2009/April/3%20Friday/cs.png
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This is the Shanghai 180 Index ...
**For Today** The Shanghai 180 is still in an up trend after testing the 5484 level and moving past it.The Shanghai 180's strength is positive, but negatively divergent, with the Super Accelerator in high positive territory.(The negatively divergent C-RSI will pose a problem at some point ... for now, the bias is positive but caution should be displayed for the next few days.)China's stock markets will be closed Monday for Tomb Sweeping Day and re-open on Tuesday.
http://www.stocktiming.com/images/2009/April/3%20Friday/c180.png
Just to keep the Shanghai Bubble's drop in perspective, this is the 10 year WEEKLY chart of the Shanghai Composite.
http://www.stocktiming.com/images/2009/April/3%20Friday/cw.png
China's Shanghai Composite - Monday, April 6, 2009:
*** Last night, the Shanghai went down -0.23%. The Shanghai is on a "Negative, Relative Strength divergence"Alert-Watch.The Accelerator is positive and moving higher, and the Relative Strength is negatively divergent ... I am not liking the action of the Relative Strength right now.
http://www.stocktiming.com/images/2009/April/3%20Friday/cs.png
_________________________________________________________________________________
This is the Shanghai 180 Index ...
**For Today** The Shanghai 180 is still in an up trend after testing the 5484 level and moving past it.The Shanghai 180's strength is positive, but negatively divergent, with the Super Accelerator in high positive territory.(The negatively divergent C-RSI will pose a problem at some point ... for now, the bias is positive but caution should be displayed for the next few days.)China's stock markets will be closed Monday for Tomb Sweeping Day and re-open on Tuesday.
http://www.stocktiming.com/images/2009/April/3%20Friday/c180.png
Just to keep the Shanghai Bubble's drop in perspective, this is the 10 year WEEKLY chart of the Shanghai Composite.
http://www.stocktiming.com/images/2009/April/3%20Friday/cw.png
China's Shanghai Composite:Wednesday, April 8th, 2009
*** Last night, the Shanghai went down -3.76%. The Shanghai has been on a "Negative, Relative Strength divergence"Alert-Watch.The Accelerator is positive and dropping, and the Relative Strength remains negatively divergent.I have mentioned that I did NOT like the action of the Relative Strength in the past few days, and I like it even less now.The Shanghai will pull back further, after which it will need to hold a higher/low or the 5 month up move will be in jeopardy of failing to the downside.
http://www.stocktiming.com/images/2009/April/8%20Wednesda/cs.png
_________________________________________________________________________________
This is the Shanghai 180 Index ...
**For Today** The Shanghai 180 is still in an up trend after testing the 5484 level and moving past it, but it should now retest the 5484 support.The Shanghai 180's strength is positive, but negatively divergent, with the Super Accelerator positive but dropping a bit. (The negatively divergent C-RSI will pose a problem at some point ... for now, the bias is positive but caution should be displayed for the next few days.(The 5733 resistance was tested in the past few days, and failed to the downside yesterday.)
http://www.stocktiming.com/images/2009/April/8%20Wednesda/c180.png
Just to keep the Shanghai Bubble's drop in perspective, this is the 10 year WEEKLY chart of the Shanghai Composite.
http://www.stocktiming.com/images/2009/April/8%20Wednesda/cw.png
China's Shanghai Composite:
Friday, April 3, 2009
*** Last night, the Shanghai went down -0.23%. The Shanghai is on a "Negative, Relative Strength divergence"Alert-Watch.The Accelerator is positive and moving higher, and the Relative Strength is negatively divergent ... I am not liking the action of the Relative Strength right now.
http://www.stocktiming.com/images/2009/April/3%20Friday/cs.png
_________________________________________________________________________________
This is the Shanghai 180 Index ...
**For Today** The Shanghai 180 is still in an up trend after testing the 5484 level and moving past it.The Shanghai 180's strength is positive, but negatively divergent, with the Super Accelerator in high positive territory.(The negatively divergent C-RSI will pose a problem at some point ... for now, the bias is positive but caution should be displayed for the next few days.)China's stock markets will be closed Monday for Tomb Sweeping Day and re-open on Tuesday.
http://www.stocktiming.com/images/2009/April/3%20Friday/c180.png
Just to keep the Shanghai Bubble's drop in perspective, this is the 10 year WEEKLY chart of the Shanghai Composite.
http://www.stocktiming.com/images/2009/April/3%20Friday/cw.png
China's Shanghai Composite: Monday, November 17, 2008
Is something brewing in the Chinese stock market that could eventually have a "spill over" effect on
the U.S. stock market?
After a horrible one year drop on the Shanghai Composite, there are now signs of stabilization where the Chinese stock market could finally work on establishing a hold-able bottom.If it can now make a higher/low followed by a higher/high, then the odds will be in place for it to have a retracement rally to the upside.
That would be conducive with internal infrastructure investments made by the Chinese government which could in turn have a positive influence on our markets in the coming weeks.
Let's look at what is happening in China ...
Last night, the Shanghai moved up 2.22%.As we have been pointed out, the S.T. Accelerator was in negative territory and showing a possibility of reversing up and the RSI was holding at its support line.Last week, the S.T. Accelerator went into positive territory.There is an upside bias with a positive divergence taking effect now. The Shanghai Composite tested its long term weekly resistance and broke above it. This now increases the bias to the upside for the Shanghai Composite.The Shanghai 180 shares still has its Super Accelerator in Negative territory, so a transition to an upside rally will likely be choppy and volatile until the Shanghai Composite establishes a higher/low followed by a higher/high.
http://www.stocktiming.com/images/REPORTS/China%20Reports/Shanghai-index-nov/c%20s.png
This is a Point & Figure chart on the Shanghai Composite Index.Note the upside breakout of the one year resistance line.The Shanghai Composite has now finished its one year drop and will now work on establishing a bottom support for moving higher longer term.
http://www.stocktiming.com/images/REPORTS/China%20Reports/Shanghai-index-nov/c%20pt.png
This is the Shanghai 180 Shares showing that its Super Accelerator is still negative which indicates that there is still bottom formation work necessary for a future up rally.
http://www.stocktiming.com/images/REPORTS/China%20Reports/Shanghai-index-nov/c%20shan%20tri.png
Just to keep the Shanghai Bubble's drop in perspective, this is the 10 year WEEKLY chart of the Shanghai Composite.
*** Note the resistance line we drew last Wednesday.The Shanghai Composite tested that resistance last and broke to the upside.
http://www.stocktiming.com/images/REPORTS/China%20Reports/Shanghai-index-nov/c%20%20w.png
China's Shanghai Composite ... Yesterday's comments: The Shanghai Composite tested its long term weekly resistance and broke above it. This now increases the bias to the upside for the Shanghai Composite.The Shanghai 180 shares still has its Super Accelerator in Negative territory, so a transition to an upside rally will likely be choppy and volatile until the Shanghai Composite establishes a higher/low followed by a higher/high.
See additional comments below the chart ...
http://www.stocktiming.com/images/REPORTS/China%20Reports/Shanghai-index-nov/shanghai11-18.png
The Shanghai Composite is facing a major, critical test...As we discussed yesterday, the Shanghai Composite is now at a major, critical support level as seen in the chart below.
Last night, the Shanghai Composite closed down -0.78%.This remains a critical level to hold, or the Shanghai could experience a precipitous drop from here.If that should happen, it would put a lot of downside pressure on our stock market as well.Investors should now keep an eye BOTH ... the Shanghai as well as the U.S. markets.
Comments: Note the Relative Strength graph at the top of the chart.The RSI appears to be holding a support line just as the Shanghai's price is at a major long term support test. So, this is the "big test" for the Shanghai Composite right now.
In spite of the RSI finding some support, our S.T. Accelerator is Negatively below its horizontal signal line and not showing any upside strength.If the S.T. Accelerator does not improve quickly, we will see an increased breakdown in the Shanghai's strength.
http://www.stocktiming.com/images/2008/January/31%20Thursday/c%20dd.png
Click HERE to go back to the main Shanghai Stock Market Overview page
China's Bubble makes our Internet Bubble look like a pip-squeak ...
Many people think back to our old Internet Bubble and have recollections of the downside pain that followed the Bubble's correction.
China's Bubble is making our Internet Bubble look like a pip-squeak.Some say that Chinese stocks are still at a good value, but they are not.Some say that the Shanghai Index will keep going up until after the Olympics next year.At the current rate of acceleration, that would have the Shanghai move from 5277 to 15831.The equivalent of that feat is for the DOW to move from yesterday's 13363 to 40089 by next September.
How much has the Shanghai gone up since last September?The Answer is went from 1752 to 5277.
If you recall, this past February, I posted an update with this headline, "Let me say this very simply ... China's Stock Market will Crash sometime this year".
We have 3 months and 3 weeks to go before the end of the year, and if the current rate of acceleration went unabated, the Shanghai would close at 8543 at the end of December.I still believe that the probability is very high that a large correction will occur on the Shanghai before the end of the year. This adds an additional risk level to the current market condition.
http://www.stocktiming.com/images/2007/SEPTCS3/9-7FRIDAY/CHINAM1.png
China Update: The Real Story ...
Chinese Government officials got real worried when the Shanghai continued its parabolic rise and blew through its 12 year Major resistance level.
This morning, their markets dropped over 6% after the government increased the stamp tax on Security transactions. The news media are making a “big deal” out of the tax increase by running headlines that say, “China China's CSI 300 Drops After Transaction Tax Tripled”.
Tripling any tax sounds like something terrible being inflicted on Chinese investors, but that is not the real story. The real story is that the stamp tax was initiated in the early 90’s at 0.6%.That’s six tenths of 1% …not much of a tax rate by any standards. Over time, they lowered the tax rate to 0.1% to promote investing in their stock market. Yes, todaythey tripled it, but that only took it to 0.3% or one half of what it was when it started.
When was the last time the Chinese government raised the tax and what happened afterwards? It was in May of 1997, and the tax was increased from 0.3% to 0.5%. The next day, the Shanghai Composite rose 2.3%. And then, slowly over the next 10 weeks, the Shanghai dropped just under 30%.
At 0.3%, the tax may not be high enough to get the desired effect the government wants ... here is why:
From February 7 of this year to May 29th., the Shanghai Composite rose 70.6% or about 1.18% per day.A 0.30% tax can be paid off from the first 99.43 minutes of the average trading day in China.This big "Tripling tax rates" that the media is touting is peanuts compared to the average daily return.See the chart below for the calculations.
http://www.stocktiming.com/images/Dream-Fix-It-Charts/Dream%20fixit%20Charts/China-Shanghai-TheRealStory2.png
This morning's reaction was a knee-jerk reaction that still left the Shanghai Composite Index above its support line as seen in our chart below.If it breaks through the support level tomorrow morning, then it could drop 500 points for another 12% drop.There is a good probability that it would rebound back up from there forcing the Chinese government to initiate another tax increase.It is more likely that the second increase to around 0.5% would get the desired action that the government wants.
China had a bear market from 2001 to 2005.At that time, their key index fell from 2,300 to under 1,000 points while their economy grew by about 10 percent per year.The World Bank just raised its forecast of China's economic growth this year to 10.4 %, from the previous 9.6 % projection.
A 20% drop on the Shanghai would cause a modest impact on their economy according to J.P. Morgan.A 50% drop would do significant damage to their citizens and economy with a strong likelihood that the Chinese would protest with public demonstrations and civil disorder.The current sentiment of many Chinese investors is that they shouldn't sell because only then would they have a "real loss".I announced early in the year that China would have a stock market crash sometime this year.I don't feel that this is it right now, but it is the beginning of a process where a China crash will unfold from.
http://www.stocktiming.com/images/Dream-Fix-It-Charts/Dream%20fixit%20Charts/China-Shanghai-TheRealStory.png
Important China Warning Update: What is China's Zhou Xiaochuan going to do now?Zhou Xiaochuan is the governor of the People’s Bank of China. Like us, he knows that the Chinese stock markets are in a bubble and he is very worried about a precipitous decline.His power on making such comments, comes from the fact, that in the past, Chinese investors always took the Government's work as "Gospel".In the past, all he had to do was "issue a public warning" and investors would listen to him.Now, Chinese investors are ignoring him.He even tried sending out a wake up call by having 3 major, State run newspapers run headline stories decreeing his warning on Tuesday.Instead of the market pulling back, it jumped up 3% in one day.That now leaves him only one option.If they won't listen to what he says, he will have to initiate some kind of banking/government action that will force Chinese investors to slow down.The Worse timing in the world?If Zhou just waits until next week, the Shanghai will hit its Major 12 year resistance and should pull back on its own.About the worse thing he can do, is to initiate action to force the Shanghai down right when it is ready to go down on its own.That "double whammy" could have some very nasty, unexpected results for Zhou.
He is stuck.If he doesn't do anything and the Shanghai goes into a "blow off" beyond the 12 year resistance, then he is in big trouble and will be blamed for not stopping it.
If he initiates actions that forces the market down, just as it is ready to retract on its own, that could give it a damaging nasty fall beyond what would have happened.If that happens, he have to take the blame for a damaging correction.His best course of action is to just wait until next week and let the Shanghai hit its 12 year resistance.Thetime for him to have done something was months ago. This morning's Shanghai update ...
Action on the Shanghai has been straight up this week.Two weeks ago, it was 13% away from it 12 year target, and this morning, it is only 3.7% away.If it continues at this pace, it will reach the Major Resistance before next Wednesday morning.
Like all bubbles that have gone straight up in parabolic fashion, their retreat is a reverse, sharp move to the downside.Take a moment to look at the chart below from the last Fall until now.Its a picture of a bubble, that is about as big as you will ever see in your lifetime.
The danger in all this, is a spill over into the worldwide markets.In February, a large Chinese pullback had our market drop.In a short period of days, we rebounded and so did the Shanghai.This time, some"Expert Analyst" on the Chinese situation are saying that, "The link between the Chinese economy and theChinese stock market is not that strong ... and therefore will have minimal impact".
Minimal impact on what?They are suggesting that a Shanghai correction will have minimal "long term" impact on the Chinese economy.That's is very probable and possible.However, in the mean time, and in the short term, a sizeable drop would cause a panic.People react irrationally in a panic, and fear breads fear until things stabilize and confidence comes back.I really don't think it is possible to have an "isolated" panic reaction by Chinese investors that does not, somehow, spill over into the rest of the investing world. If we were not so inextricably tied together as trading countries, I would agree that it wouldn't affect our markets.If it was a country like the Dominican Republic, the world would hardly take notice.How long have we been pointing out an upcoming Shanghai drop?We started our first Alert in early February, and have kept you updated every week since then ... and now ...
Goldman Sachs issued a China Warning this morning ...
Now it is May 10th., and this morning, Goldman Sachs Group just announced that, "China's stocks may face a "correction''as valuations have exceeded earnings prospects after the benchmark index almost tripled in the past year."They went on to say ...The Shanghai is valued at 42 times reported earnings, more than double the Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia Pacific Index's 19 times.China's investors opened over 350,000 new brokerage accounts on Tuesday. (This was the same day that Zhou published his warning in the 3 Major Newspapers). This was the highest daily amount of new accounts opened since June 2005.http://www.stocktiming.com/images/Dream-Fix-It-Charts/Dream%20fixit%20Charts/ChinaWarning.png
Click HERE to go back to the main Shanghai Stock Market Overview page
Note: The Following Update was our Shanghai Update from April 23, 2008.For the most current Shanghai Stock Market Charts and Analyses, Click on the Day of the Week below:Monday's Shangai Index - Chart and Analysis Tuesday's Shangai Index - Chart and Analysis
Wednesday's Shangai Index - Chart and Analysis Thursday's Shangai Index - Chart and Analysis
Friday's Shangai Index - Chart and Analysis
_________________________________________________________________________________
April 23, 2008:
Somewhere between May 2nd. and June 14th, the Shanghai is going to do something very unusual in the realm of stock market indexes.
The Shanghai Composite Index has catapulted up in a parabolic trajectory that took it from 1180.96 in January of 2006 to 3710.88 this morning.That hefty 214.23% rise resulted in a hyper-parabolic rise that has the index going straight up ... and many think that there is no end in sight.
No end in sight?But, there is ... a very long, 12 year major resistance point will be reached, somewhere in between an index level of 4189 to 4231 between now and June 14th. if the Shanghai Composite just remains on its current trajectory since March 19th. of this year. Our internet bubble trajectory is being dwarfed by the speed and rise of the Shanghai Index.
The odds of a sharp reversal back down at that point is extremely high, because parabolic movements like this become exponentially more difficult as the trajectory's angle increases.
It would be a lot better for all of us, if the Shanghai corrected tomorrow morning, rather than risk a crash that would reverberate through the world indexes.The Chinese are worried that it will be the U.S. markets that take down the markets, but it is more likely that they will be the ones to take the other stock market indexes down.See the next chart ...
http://www.stocktiming.com/images/Dream-Fix-It-Charts/Dream%20fixit%20Charts/shanghai-index-3-1.png
As the Shanghai Composite is going parabolic, the Shanghai 180 is showing signs of trouble ahead.
Below is the 2006 to 2007 chart for this index.What is note worthy, is that every time the Shanghai 180 has had a negative divergence with its rate of change, the index corrected.As you can see below, we now have the largest divergence disparity of the past 16 months.
In the first instance the index went up for 19 days, and then, the next 5 days of correction wiped out the entire previous 19 day up move.
In the second instance the index went up for 44 days, and then, the next 19 days of correction wiped out the entire previous 44 day up move.
What happens if this negative divergence behaves in a similar fashion?Our down side projection is at least 2000 points and over 25% to the downside.
While our economy and market may pose some downside risks due to a variety of potential problems, the biggest index related risk on a worldwide basis has to be China's stock market.
http://www.stocktiming.com/images/Dream-Fix-It-Charts/Dream%20fixit%20Charts/shanghai-index-3-2.png
April 19th. - China, Shanghai 180 Update: Yesterday, we warned our paid subscribers with the following: "Day traders and short term traders should be extra cautious today and tomorrow." It is now "tomorrow" ... and this morning, the Shanghai 180 fell 6.93% before a small retracement that took it to a 4.25% loss for the day.
If you recall, we posted this expectation last week, warning members that the Bow Tie Pattern was repeating 100%. The exact, first down day should have been Wednesday, and instead it was off by one day. In spite of being 1 day late, we warned that the probability of falling today was extremely high because the Shanghai 180 had a Doji Star on Tuesday, anda Spinning Top on Wednesday ... both were candlesticks that typically precede a downside reversal. *** See the chart below, and the previous postings, including last week's analysis and warning.
http://www.stocktiming.com/images/Dream-Fix-It-Charts/Dream%20fixit%20Charts/ChinaWarning-subscribersOnly1.png
So the Shanghai is repeating the Bow Tie pattern ... what now?
The last Bow Tie Pattern took the Shanghai 180 down to its support at label C below, so I expect thatthis drop will move down to the support once again at label D which is 10.88% from the index's open this morning.That would take the Shanghai down to a support level of 6568.
http://www.stocktiming.com/images/Dream-Fix-It-Charts/Dream%20fixit%20Charts/ChinaWarning-subscribersOnly8.png
Could it go lower??? ... see the next chart.
http://www.stocktiming.com/images/Dream-Fix-It-Charts/Dream%20fixit%20Charts/ChinaWarning-subscribersOnly2.png
This is the Shanghai 180's two year chart showing its parabolic rise that compares to the Internet Bubble we had.
The Shanghai 180 may indeed go lower and end up in a crash as I had previously published on our February 19th. SafeHaven posting: http://www.safehaven.com/showarticle.cfm?id=6945
Here is the updated parabolic Shanghai 180 chart and the divergence warning that it is sending.
While there is a long term support line for 6568, it is now facing another negative divergence pattern as seen below.Note that the two previous patterns had a divergence drop thattook out the previous 2 and 3 months of up action.Should the current negative divergence do the same, then the Shanghai could see a 25% drop from yesterday's close.
This is indeed a bubble, as the Shanghai 180 has gone up 264% since January of last year.That is the equivalent of our DJI moving up from yesterday's 12803 to 33816 in the next five and a half quarters.
In February, I said that China would have a crash this year ... we are getting closerto that event.
http://www.stocktiming.com/images/Dream-Fix-It-Charts/Dream%20fixit%20Charts/ChinaWarning-subscribersOnly3.png
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April 18th. - China, Shanghai 180 Update: The Bow Tie Pattern for the Shanghai is below. Last night was day 5 for being outside the pattern and we expected the Shanghai to move down in order to replicate the pattern.
It didn't go down.But it had candlestick spinning top ... one of our subscribers called it a Dragonfly Doji. Doji(s) typically appear at market turning points, and we now have a "double Doji" occurrence.This increases the odds for the Shanghai moving down tonight.
*** The market pull backs or corrections are now happening on unsuspected negative "events".The Shanghai would be such an event, so with the current double Doji pattern, we will keep our conservative investors in cash as this unfolds.Day traders and short term traders should be extra cautious today and tomorrow.http://www.stocktiming.com/images/Dream-Fix-It-Charts/Dream%20fixit%20Charts/ChinaWarning-subscribersOnly4.png_____________________________________________________________________________
April 17th. Update to Special China Analysis ... (See the full analysis below this update.)
Today is the fourth day after the pattern of the Shanghai 180 breaking out of its rectangle. The last pattern,
in January, had the Shanghai move up four more days after moving out of the right corner of the rectangle and
then reversed down.
The current pattern has been an exact repeat, so far.We are now at the critical point of day
four today.On the previous pattern, the Shanghai 180 went down on the 5th. day after exiting the outside of the rectangle.
Tomorrow (Wednesday) will be day five.
If the pattern repeats, then the Shanghai 180 will trend down tomorrow ... before our markets open.
Last night, the Shanghai closed the day with a Doji Star, or what some would call a Long Legged Star.This is
considered to be a reversal candlestick, but the next day is needed for confirmation ... which will be tomorrow.
It is an interesting coincidence that we have a bearish Doji the day before the Shanghai should move down based on the pattern.
If the pattern repeats, then the Shanghai will move down tomorrow and exert downside pressure on the
international markets.This will indeed be interesting, because there are huge liquidity injections coming
into our market which is an offsetting force to external downside pressures.If there is a big enough drop
on the Shanghai tomorrow, then the markets would consider this an "event" and react negatively.
While we won't know if this patterns repeats 100% until tomorrow, we do know that the repeating factor
for this so far has been an extremely rare and unusual event.
http://www.stocktiming.com/images/Dream-Fix-It-Charts/Dream%20fixit%20Charts/ChinaWarning-subscribersOnly5.png
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April 11th. China Report and Bow Tie Pattern Analysis ...
Most of you know that I spend at least 15 hours a month on new research or exploring new market patterns.I found something very unusual going on in the Shanghai Index, unusual enough that I thought it was important to share it with you ...
Will the Shanghai 180 Index correct within 4 days and take our markets down with it?
This morning, we made a very interesting observation about the Shanghai 180 Index.The Shanghai is an index that we are watching pretty closely due to its correlation with our Feb. 27th. market drop.
I will show you two Shanghai 180 charts this morning with a very interesting pattern.
The first chart shows the Shanghai from last year to this year.As you know, as an index or marketcontinues to have a bull rise, the angle of ascent increases.If you look at the first three rectangles,you can see how the price action moves up at higher angles as the rally moves forward.
Each rectangle is the same size and shape depicting the same time periods.I drew a line from the lower corner to the upper corner of each rectangle and this gives you equal slopes for each area.
Now ... see the next chart for the fascinating pattern.
http://www.stocktiming.com/images/Dream-Fix-It-Charts/Dream%20fixit%20Charts/ChinaWarning-subscribersOnly6.png
This chart is a close up of the last two rectangles.
Now, for the fascinating pattern ...I drew a triangle that encompassed the move of the first 9 days that held the trend line on the first rectangle.
I then duplicated the triangle's size 3 more times and overlaid them on the remaining parts of both rectangles.
In the first rectangle, the upper triangle ends above the rectangle's box and marks the exact peak and reversal of the Shanghai 180.Pretty amazing symmetry.
So in rectangle 1, this is what occurred:
a. The index moved up for 9 days holding its trend line.
b. The index moved on the right side of the trend line and remained below the second triangle for 2 days.
c. It then completed the second 9 day move on the underside of the trend line and reached the upper corner of the rectangle.
d. It then moved up another 4 more days in order to reach the top of the same sized triangle.
e. After reaching that point the Shanghai corrected.
Now let's look at the second rectangle:
a. The index moved up for 9 days holding its trend line.
b. The index moved on the right side of the trend line and remained below the second triangle for 2 days.
c. It then completed the second 9 day move on the underside of the trend line and reached the upper corner of the rectangle.
That's were we are now ... 3 exact pattern repeats so far.
The interesting question is ... Will (d) and (e) also repeat this exact pattern?
If it does, then the Shanghai will make its high in 4 days and then correct again.The Shanghai January 31st. correction didn't really affect our markets, but the Shanghai February 27th. correction did.If this pattern repeats, then by the middle of next week, the Shanghai will correct with a good possibility that it takes our markets with it.
Comments: We don't really know if (d) and (e) will follow the same pattern, and if the Shanghai would then correct and affect our markets.We do know that this is a very fascinating pattern that is repeating itself 100% so far.I know that this is some very unusual pattern research, but when my eye can pick out such a pattern with such unusual repeat factors, then I feel it is my duty to at least share the observations with you.
***This page was posted on the public site so that you could have direct access to it without login in.The page and URL address is hidden and is only available to paid subscribers, so please do not give out this link
.
http://www.stocktiming.com/images/Dream-Fix-It-Charts/Dream%20fixit%20Charts/ChinaWarning-subscribersOnly7.pngClick HERE to go back to the main Shanghai Stock Market Overview page
Let me say this very simply ...
China's Stock Market will Crash sometime this year.
I read a Chinese report this morning that said, "It is now estimated that 90% of Chinese loans are going into the equities markets". In an effort to combat this, the Chinese government just raised interest rates on the eve of their lunar New Year.
Somewhere, between now and the next 8 months, three Chinese stock market challenges will likely unfold:
1. The amount of inflowing money into their stock market will have a dramatic decline. There will be no more inflows from those who have already mortgaged their homes, or maxed out their credit cards to raise cash for stock purchases. Where will these people get more money after they are tapped out? For those who haven't yet done so, the government will step in with restrictions and interest rate policies that will help stem this risky practice.
2. Another lurking problem, is the inability of China's present system to handle a sudden spike in volume that would occur in the event of investors rushing to sell. This creates a high probability that the government will have to "shut the Shanghai Index down" when such an event occurs. The government is already worried about this, and about the possible social instability that this could cause in their country. Think of it this way ... many Chinese citizens have all their life savings and assets in the stock market. For many Chinese investors, the stock market "is their bank". If they need cash, or are become afraid of the market dropping, there will "be a run on the bank" ... just like we experienced in the 20's. There won't be the necessary volume of buyers to soak up the volume being sold by sellers unless the government buys the stocks being sold.
3. In an L.A. Times article, they told the story about the Jinbao borrower who took out a $40,000 mortgage to invest in the market. (This is now a common occurrence in China.) When warned that he might suffer losses, he said, "I have targeted one good stock and I just need the money for one month". Think about it ... the unrealistic expectations in this mania are at an extreme. The investor's "expectation" is that he will make "a 100% return in 1 month". What happens if it doesn't go up, and the stock falls while he is required to meet the payments on loan with a 36% annual interest rate?
It will be quiet on the Shanghai index this week, because financial markets are closed Monday in mainland China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea and Malaysia for the Lunar New Year holiday. Markets in Hong Kong and Malaysia will reopen Wednesday, while markets on the Chinese mainland and Taiwan will remain closed all week and reopen next Monday, Feb. 26.
Next week, many Chinese investors will plow more money in the Shanghai because it is the beginning of the new year of double luck and prosperity. Unless their government does something to quell the enthusiasm, they are likely to see another record week with a 10% to 15% rise. This is a game of musical chairs, and when the music stops, only a few will find chairs to sit on.
In a rebuttal, I received a call from a subscriber. He said that he has visited China and that the Chinese government will not allow the Shanghai index to fall.
How are they going to do that ... when they haven't been able to stop the Shanghai from rising 11.5% per week ... every week, for the last six and a half weeks? If they put in restrictions that stops this 10%+ rise per week, what will happen when those who borrowed at 36% interest rates can't make the payments the following month? (See the L.A. Times article below.)
How are they going to do that, when they have already put restrictions in where no one can take out a mortgage or loan and put the money in the stock market ... and yet by their own report, 90% of the loans are still going into the stock market?
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We are now going to shift to our charts of China's stock market.
On Monday, we reported that the Shanghai 180 Index had an 11.5% average weekly rise over a six and a half week period.
It had a pull back on February 5th., landed exactly on a support line, and moved back up from that point.
Here is how it moved:
The low on February 5th. was 5056. This morning, the Shanghai 180 was up to 6116.
If you do the math, it went up 1060 points or 20.97% in 9 days. It is now at a new high on its parabolic up move as seen in the chart below. When do you remember any of our indexes going up 20.97% in a year, much less doing it in 9 days? How long do you think this bubble will last?
( Also see these previous links: www.stocktiming.com/China1.htm and www.stocktiming.com/China2.htm )
http://www.stocktiming.com/images/Dream-Fix-It-Charts/Dream%20fixit%20Charts/ChinaFeb20-1.png
Click HERE to go back to the main Shanghai Stock Market Overview page
Today will be a more extensive update with a total of 5 charts.We will revisit the bubble that just expanded in China, and then compare the broad market action relative what Institutional Investors are doing. (After a dip on February 5th. the Shanghai 180 Index proceeded to rise 20.97% in just 9 days.)
This is an important update, so let's start today's analysis ...Institutional Investors vs. the Average Investor ...The S&P 500 is regarded as a good measurement of the economy by many investors.The reason, is that it represents some of the best stocks with the widest representation across many different sectors.
At the other end of the spectrum, are the Institutional and "core holding stocks" that are in their portfolios.As a group, this can be expressed as an Index as seen below.What is important on this first chart, is the relationship of what Institutional Investors are doing, compared to what the average investor is doing in the markets.
Note the nearly exact correlation of the S&P 500 and what the Institutions did from July of last year to December.
At no time, did the Institutions do anything but support the markets rise from July to December.This was important for a strong market rally, because over 50% of the market's volume comes from Institutional Investors.
Now, look at both the S&P 500 and the Institutional Index from mid December to yesterday.There is
clearly a divergence.While the S&P 500 has been moving up, the Institutional Index went sideways.
There is saying that Institutional investors have stopped supporting the market's rally and the market is now being propelled up without the help of Institutions.See chart 2 ...http://www.stocktiming.com/images/Dream-Fix-It-Charts/Dream%20fixit%20Charts/China2-1.png
The above were line charts, and now we will look at the bar charts for both indexes.
What do you see now?The S&P 500 is showing an up Channel in movement, while the Institutional index is in a clear trading range.This is a departure from Institutional behavior that started last July.
Both of these charts are showing lack of support from Institutions in this aging rally.
While this won't stop the rally immediately, there will come a point where the average investor will not be able to keep the rally moving on his own ... he will simply run out of steam.If Institutional investors decided to start taking profits next week, this rally would end very quickly.
What if Institutions "change their mind" and start buying aggressively?Obviously, in that case, they would send the market up in an exuberant move.
Will Institutions start buying again anytime soon?I don't have the answer to that.But, as one Institutional investor said ... It is hard to get excited now, after 67% of the companies reported "forward guidance" with lower expectations. This is the highest negative guidance number in 8 quarters of reporting.
So ... obviously we have a disparity in the markets.The question is, "when and how will it be resolved?"http://www.stocktiming.com/images/Dream-Fix-It-Charts/Dream%20fixit%20Charts/China2-2.png
We are now going to shift to China's stock market.
On Monday, we reported that the Shanghai 180 Index had an 11.5% average weekly rise over a six and a half week period.
It had a pull back on February 5th., landed exactly on a support line, and moved back up from that point.
Here is how it moved:
The low on February 5th. was 5056.This morning, the Shanghai 180 was up to 6116.
If you do the math, it went up 1060 points or 20.97% in 9 days.It is now at a new high on its parabolic
up move as seen in the chart below. When do you remember any of our indexes going up 20.97% in a year, much less doing it in 9 days?How long do you think this bubble will last?
http://www.stocktiming.com/images/Dream-Fix-It-Charts/Dream%20fixit%20Charts/China2-3.png
That was the Shanghai 180 Index ... what about the Shanghai Composite Index?Here is how it moved:
It hit its low on February 6th. at 2541. This morning, the Shanghai Composite was up to 2993.
If you do the math, it went up 452 points or 17.79% in 8 days. It will have a new closing high today.
This week, I had several emails about the Institutional divergence and the Shanghai stock market
with comments that essentially boiled down to this: So what?Big Deal ... don't you know that this
is a Goldilocks economy?The exuberant attitude, and apathy about situations that should be of
concern may well be a contrarian's warning sign. http://www.stocktiming.com/images/Dream-Fix-It-Charts/Dream%20fixit%20Charts/China2-4.png
Click HERE to go back to the main Shanghai Stock Market Overview page