Two possible fourth waves till the mid of June (EWA)
As wave picture changes every minute scenarios should be adjusted regularly. Sometimes not to depend on the current variant wave counting is marked from the ground up that as a rule results in good alternate scenarios.
These weekends wave counting marking of the main currency pairs was adjusted and complemented. Forecasts released earlier:
[*]Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY,[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs and[*]Monthly-0506,on the whole remain valid.
Details specification in the current counting and additional use of the key pulse points method make it possible to suppose that the market will spend most of the time forming two corrective fourth waves of impulse (that is excluding short wave v of (iii) cunning waves iv of (iii) and (iv) will be forming) up to the second half of June 2006. Currently it is just a supposition not confirmed by the market.
Adjusted variants of wave counting market of the main currencies and some alternate variants are shown below.
1. USD/CHF
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0605/060514165345.gif
Figure 1. Wave counting on daily chart.
This wave counting marking was adjusted minimally.
Though due to the sharp downward movement and applied to the shape of wave C Robert Balan's assumption (“wave C may be double/triple zigzag”) we may assume this downward movement to be a global impulse rather than zigzag and be ready for the alternate variant given in Figure 2 below.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0605/060514165431.gif
Figure 2. Wave counting on weekly chart. Alternate variant.
According to the alternate variant impulse continues, forming final impulse (5) currently. In this case guidelines for correlation for corrective waves (2) and (4) of impulse are observed both by the depth and shape.
In case the supposition is correct in the second half of the summer another, third wave 4 (wave 4 of (5)) will be formed.
2. EUR/USD
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0605/060514165544.gif
Figure 3. Wave counting on daily chart.
This wave counting marking was adjusted minimally.
Though due to the sharp upward movement and applied to the shape of wave C Robert Balan's assumption (“wave C may be double/triple zigzag”) we may assume this upward movement to be a global impulse rather than zigzag and be ready for the alternate variant given in Figure 4 below.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0605/060514165628.gif
Figure 4. Wave counting on weekly chart. Alternate variant.
According to the alternate variant impulse continues, forming final impulse (5) currently. In this case guidelines for correlation for corrective waves (2) and (4) of impulse are observed both by the depth and shape.
In case the supposition is correct in the second half of the summer another, third wave 4 (wave 4 of (5)) will be formed.
3. GBP/USD
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0605/060514165712.gif
Figure 5. Wave counting on daily chart.
This wave counting marking was adjusted minimally, these changes do not impact nearest price movement forecast. As earlier completion of supposed zigzag -- is expected before the mid of July and two fourth waves of impulse may end by the second half of June.
4. USD/JPY
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0605/060514165805.gif
Figure 6. Wave counting on daily chart.
This wave counting was adjusted more significantly than the other ones but these changes do not impact nearest price movement forecast. As earlier completion of supposed zigzag -- is expected before the mid of July and two fourth waves of impulse may end by the second half of June.
I have written several times that for USD/JPY the variant with final wave in the shape of zigzag (as the most wide-spread shape of triangle wave) seems to be the most preferable variant for me. I return to it again having adjusted its wave counting marking.
According to this variant first impulse (A) is an impulse with extension in the fifth wave. In this case waves 1 and 3 are approximately equal in length (3 > 1). Quite complicated wave counting marking of wave 3 is given in Figure 7 below.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0605/060514165850.gif
Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
None of the EWA rules has been violated here but alternation guideline is not observed either by the shape or the depth of corrections. Though there is a small overlapping of waves 1 and 4 endings acceptable for marginal markets, but close prices do not overlap at all.
Survey wave counting for this scenario is shown in Figure 8 below.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0605/060514165931.gif
Figure 8. Wave counting on weekly chart.
Quite good resistance (108.50-106.50) is at the optimal for wave (B) of zigzag level approximately at 62%. Zigzag -- may complete around these levels.
Reference
[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY (Wave Analysis)[*]CAD possible perspectives till 2008 and further (EWA of USD/CAD)[*]Japanese Triangles (EWA of EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA)[*]Two possible fourth waves till the mid of June (EWA)[*]FOREX forecast, 2006[*]Monthly-0506[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comMay 14, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari
Skewed Triangles in FX (EWA)
A little from history.
In August 2005 my article about a new wave pattern in FX market (refer to Wave pattern “Running triple three” in FX) was published in the Forex Magazine #83. Those who read the article may remember the following passage:
“Of course, such significant coincidences both in characteristics and features between horizontal triangle and proposed running triple three suggested not only a tentative term “running triangle” , but also the triangle notation system a-b-c-d-e. But this term had been already introduced in the wave theory by A. Frost and R. Prechter and unites patterns with different characteristics.”
As the suggested wave pattern was new for the existent catalogue of wave patterns this naturally involved the classification of corrections as well. That was the reason why a summary description of the new pattern and its grounding were sent to Elliott Wave International (EWI) to Robert Precther who is the leading specialist of world-wide reputations in Wave Principle. Almost all wave analysts at least in Russia and in the former USSR countries were learning Wave Principle from his books.
Maestro agreed that such wave structure occurs in financial markets. But his view about the name and place of this pattern in the catalogue of correction wave patterns differed somewhat from mine. So we started holding correspondence changing our opinions, searching for variants of names, classifications and their groundings.
As a result of my researches an article about proposed classification of expanded corrections (refer to Expanded wave corrections classifications , New wave pattern and new expanded corrections classification in FX) was published in last October in the Forex Magazine #91. Of course its translation was sent to Bob.
We renewed correspondence. At the next stage Bob’s colleague Davе Allman joined the discussion, while Prechter put forward the following suggestion.
As the name “running triangle” reflects the characteristics of this pattern best of all he proposed to give it this name. Remember Latin proverb “To call means to know” (Nomen nest numen). But what to do with a category of triangles which were known under this name already? And Dave suggested a rather consistent solution – to rename the old pattern “running triangle” into “expanded triangle”.
From my point of view it would be the best solution, as a clear connection inside the classes of running and expanded patterns was seen already (refer to the pictures below). But only the man who introduced this term into the wave theory, i.e. Robert Pretcher, could do this.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0604/060419090129.gif
Simply to running wave flat a pair of running waves was added and a running triangle appeared.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0604/060419090230.gif
The old running triangle in this case was renamed into expanded triangle, on the analogy with expanded flat. It differs from expanding triangle by converging defining lines.
But… Justified Bob’s fears that there would be confusion with the names “expanded triangle” – “expanding triangle” led to a compromise result – the pattern was called Skewed Triangle.
An article about this written in collaboration with EWI was published in the latest issue of Robert Pretcher’s journal The Elliott Wave Theorist (April 18, 2006) (PDF-format), which I’m pleased to present here.
Those who noted a small inaccuracy in my e-mail address at the end of the article write to a correct address forDmitry@yahoo.com ;)
So the old name of the pattern running triple zigzag (RTZ) should be replaced with the new one – skewed triangle (ST).
[Several days later once this issue was released May issue of EWT was published. Another example of the skewed triangle (this time in gold market) was given there (refer to the Figure below).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0605/060501110821.gif
This variant was sent to EWI by one of the readers of the journal.
As for individual stocks and stock indexes (including DJIA) skewed triangles patterns, found there in collaboration with EWI, should be examined thoroughly. But they are there, believe me ;)]
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comApril 19, 2006Do not reproduce without explicit permission of EWI and Alpari.
Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA)
Introduction
At the beginning of 2005 (refer to Annual-05) project date of completion of the trend in favor of the dollar was specified, it was ~ March 2006. Some time later in article Possible Variants of Correction Development until March, 2006 (in Russian) the methods with the help of which that date was specified were described.
At the end of October in article Key Levels, Which Open New Targets (in Russian) possible price targets of the main currencies were projected. Though JPY was the only currency which managed to fix behind the key level and reach the projected levels. The other currencies failed to do it.
Recently the limit date of possible completion of price movement in favor of the dollar, April 6, was specified in the Monthly Wave Analyses (refer to Monthly-0206, Monthly-0306, Monthly-0406).
At last last week the limit date expired and I had to proceed to the alternate variants which were given in those analyses and which are described in details in this article.
Ending of many-week corrective wave, expected from the very beginning of 2005, was formed at the first half of March, but it was wave ending of rebound of the new trend against the dollar which has already begun, rather then the turning point of the trend in favor of the dollar, having approached very close to the last year extreme point. Currently the critical level for the scenarios described below is at this value.
I suppose that price movement against USD has already begun and may last till November 2006 (or till May 2007). It will be confirmed in case price breaks confirmation levels. In any case further scenario specification will be done on the ground of analysis of the wave structure at the end of October – beginning of November 2006 (refer to Annual-06).
1. USD/CHF
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0604/060410084514.gif
Figure 1. Wave counting on daily chart.
From my point of view wave counting in Figure 1 is the most precise scenario currently. Some roughness, inevitable in such a difficult pattern, is compensated for clear perspective of price further possible movement. Two supposed downward wedges point at continuous CHF drop. And the fact that ending of March wave is close to wave (A) or (W) ending makes it possible to assume that the “double top”, a reversal pattern of the classical technical analysis, is formed.
Of course, this is one of possible variants of prices behavior and in case the critical levels are broken (they are shown in the chart) I will have to adjust the counting.
For survey wave counting refer to Figure 2 below.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0604/060410084601.gif
Figure 2. Wave counting on weekly chart.
First wave (A) or (W) of corrective wave formed in the shape of the triple zigzag. A pair of wedges (refer to Figure 1) makes it possible to suppose that downward zigzag is forming. It is possible that downtrend will form more than one zigzag and movement against USD may last till May 2007.
2. EUR/USD
The above information about CHF is the mirror image of that one above EUR.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0604/060410084649.gif
Figure 3. Wave counting on daily chart.
From my point of view this variant of wave counting is the most precise one currently. There is a clear perspective of price further possible movement. Two supposed upward wedges point at continuous EUR rise. And ending of wave (A) or (W) may be considered to be the “head” in the reversal pattern of the classical technical analysis, the “inverse Head-and-Shoulders” with the lowest target around 1.30.
Of course, this is one of possible variants of prices behavior and in case the critical levels are broken (they are shown in the chart) I will have to adjust the counting.
For survey wave counting refer to Figure 4 below.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0604/060410084741.gif
Figure 4. Wave counting on weekly chart.
First wave (A) or (W) of corrective wave formed in the shape of the triple zigzag. A pair of wedges (refer to Figure 3) makes it possible to suppose that upward zigzag is forming. It is possible that uptrend will form more than one zigzag and movement against USD may last till May 2007.
3. GBP/USD
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0604/060410084824.gif
Figure 5. Wave counting on daily chart.
Because of GBP sideways movement from the end of 2005 a variety of wave counting scenarios of this part of the chart occurs. One of such variants is shown in Figure 5.
Wave (A) or (W) is supposed to be completed. Upward zigzag with wave in the shape of the horizontal triangle is forming. Wave (A) or (W) ending may be considered to be the “head” in the reversal pattern of the classical technical analysis, the “inverse Head-and-Shoulders” (see Figure 6 below).
Of course, this is one of possible variants of prices behavior and in case the critical levels are broken (they are shown in the chart) I will have to adjust the counting.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0604/060410084910.gif
Figure 6. Patterns “Head-and-Shoulders”.
Two patterns “Head-and-Shoulders”, given in this chart, were already described last year in summer (refer to Daily-290705 (in Russian)). Now the same pattern may be forming with the lowest target around 1.88.
For survey wave counting refer to Figure 7 below.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0604/060410090645.gif
Figure 7. Wave counting on weekly chart.
First wave (A) or (W) of corrective wave formed in the shape of the triple zigzag. It may be supposed that price upward movement will form more than one zigzag, whereas movement against USD may last till May 2007.
4. USD/JPY
Wave counting given in Figure 8 below was described in details in Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY (Wave Analysis).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0604/060410085059.gif
Figure 8. Wave counting on daily chart.
From my point of view this variant of wave counting is the most precise one currently. Though JPY inability to complete many-month impulse with price short upward thrust may make the alternate variant shown in Figure 9 below more probable.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0604/060410085143.gif
Figure 9. Wave counting on daily chart. The alternate variant.
Alternate variant of wave counting is almost the same as that one of the European currencies. According to this scenario wave (A) or (W) assumed the shape of the triple zigzag and it is already completed. Downward zigzag with wave in the shape of the horizontal triangle is forming.
In this case survey wave counting may assume the shape shown in Figure 10 below.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0604/060410085224.gif
Figure 10. Wave counting on weekly chart. The alternate variant.
According to the alternate variant first wave (A) or(W) of wave of the global triangle formed in the shape of the triple zigzag. It may be assumed that price downward movement will form more than one zigzag whereas price movement against USD may last till May 2007.
Reference
[*]Possible Perspectives of the Main Currency Pairs According to EWA (in Russian)[*]Possible Variants of Correction Development until March, 2006 (in Russian)[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Key Levels, Which Open New Targets (in Russian)[*]Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian)[*]Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY (Wave Analysis)[*]FOREX forecast, 2006[*]Monthly-0406[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comApril 10, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari
Japanese Triangles (EWA of EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY)
In summer 2004 an attempt was made to specify the final point of uptrend completion of EURJPY (refer to 20-figure possible trade) and GBP/JPY (refer to Another 25+figures are possible).
Within almost two years the price reached the second project target, specified in the articles mentioned above. But wave picture has changed since that time. In this article projected targets of the specified cross-rates are adjusted.
I. EUR/JPY
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0603/060329194133.gif
Figure 1. Wave counting on monthly chart.
Global uptrend of EURJPY is supposed to be assuming the shape of the impulse which fourth wave (4) has formed in the shape of the running triple zigzag (refer to New Wave Pattern and New Classification of Extended Corrections in the FOREX Market) and which final wave (5) is assuming the shape of the impulse.
In case the supposition is correct, length of wave (5) may be equal to hight H rtz of the running pattern, that is global impulse completion may be expected at 148 near strong resistance level.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0603/060329194220.gif
Figure 2. Wave counting on weekly chart.
Undoubtedly the set of corrective threes once supposed wave (3) is completed makes it possible to present further upward movement in the shape of the diagonal triangle. But diagonal triangles do not complete with the impulse. I believe that the final movement (wave (5)) is a forming impulse. Let's analyze it.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0603/060329194309.gif
Figure 3. Wave counting on daily chart.
Wave (5) is supposed to be a regular impulse:
[*]the movement is within the channel.[*]waves 2 and 4 of impulse alternate in terms of the correction depth.[*]depth of waves 2 and 4 corrections approximately corresponds to Fibo levels.[*]fourth wave 4 is forming in the shape of horizontal triangle, typical of impulse fourth waves.[*]third wave 3 is ~1.618 times longer than wave 1.[*]wave 1 height approximately corresponds to the widest part of the triangle (wave 4), that is why wave 5 length may be expected to be equal or proportional to first wave 1.There are two strong resistance levels (144 and 148) above wave 3 of (5) ending, they may become the final obstacle for the uptrend. In this case wave 5 may correspond either to 62% of the triangle hight or to Robert Miner's 127% external retracement (127% of the triangle hight).
II. GBP/JPY
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0603/060329194357.gif
Figure 4. Wave counting on monthly chart.
Global horizontal triangle is supposed to be forming. From the second half of 2000 upward movement is wave of this triangle and it is in the shape of the double zigzag. There is quite strong resistance at 219, above the current prices and this zigzag may complete there (~ 78% of the previous wave).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0603/060329194444.gif
Figure 5. Wave counting on weekly chart.
The second leg of final zigzag (Y) is supposed to be a diagonal triangle. In case zigzag (Y) legs are equal its completion may be expected around 218, not far from the mentioned resistance level. Let's analyze it.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0603/060329194558.gif
Figure 6. Wave counting on daily chart.
Wave forming is supposed to be completed in the shape of the horizontal triangle. In case the supposition is correct length of final wave may be equal to the widest part of the triangle whereas diagonal triangle ending may be expected at 213 resistance.
In case waves and are equal price may reach 219 level, that corresponds to the significant resistance level and Robert Miner's 162% external retracement (162% of the widest part of the triangle).
III. Japanese triangles
In Figures 3 and 6 (above) it can be clearly seen that from December 2005 practically simultaneous horizontal triangle has been forming. It is quite logical as JPY, as a constituent of either of the cross-rates, has already formed a similar pattern.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0603/060329194703.gif
Figure 7. Wave counting on daily chart.
Refer to Figure 7 for wave counting of USDJPY. This impulse with wave 4 in the shape of the horizontal triangle was described in details in Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY (Wave Analysis). This very triangle may play first fiddle for triangles in EURJPY and GBPJPY charts.
Cross-rates constituents impact on the currency pair (EURJPY, for example) movement is shown below in Figure 8. Constituents are EURUSD and USDJPY. By means of simple algebraic transformations it can be proved that
EUR/USD * USD/JPY = EUR/JPY
Of course EURJPY is an independent market not multiplication of EURUSD and USDJPY currency pairs. But due to the peculiarities of price formation in the FOREX market the result is accurate to several pips at almost any moment of time.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0603/060329194756.gif
Figure 8. Weekly charts of EURJPY and its constituents.
In case the constituents move in different directions final movement of EURJPY is either almost horizontal (part 2a, figure 8) or slanted in the direction of that constituent which rate of change is higher (that is the chart which has bigger slant). For example, in part I USDJPY is rising quicker than EURUSD is dropping. In part II EURUSD is rising quicker than USDJPY is falling. As the result, EURJPY is in a steady uptrend in part I and part II.
Impact of the constituent prices rate of change on the cross-rate movement can be clearly seen in parts III and IV. Constituents movement is not unidirectional but the direction of the movement is the same, whereas the cross-rate changes the direction of its movement abruptly as price movement rate of its constituents in parts III and IV differs.
Since from December 2005 EURUSD and GBPUSD are not in unidirectional motion whereas JPY has formed horizontal triangle, it is quite logical that EURJPY and GBPJPY repeated the most widely spread extended correction, horizontal triangle.
IV. The area of acceptable and possible values of trend completion
To specify the area of acceptable and possible values of the reversal point for EURJPY and GBPJPY and their constituents EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDJPY numeric data on the charts of this article and Monthly Wave Analysis (March) (refer to Monthly Wave Analysis, March, 2006) are used.
EUR/USD
Price fall to 1.1824 is enough to confirm the alternate variant.
Price decline to 1.1641 is enough to confirm the main variant.
In case legs correlation of the final zigzag is 1:1.618, price will drop to 1.14.
Significant resistance levels – 1.18, 1.16, 1.14.
GBP/USD
Price fall to 1.7332 is enough to confirm the alternate variant.
Price decline to 1.7047 is enough to confirm the main variant.
In case legs correlation of the final zigzag is 1:1.618, price will drop to 1.66.
Significant resistance levels – 1.73, 1.70, 1.66.
JPY/USD
Price rise to 121.36 is enough to confirm the main variant.
Significant resistance levels – 122, 126.
EUR/JPY
Price rise to 143.59 is enough to confirm the main variant.
Significant resistance levels – 144, 148.
GBP/JPY
Price rise to 212.99 is enough to confirm the main variant.
Significant resistance levels – 213, 219.
These restrictions and preferences are shown in the chart (refer to Figures 9 and 10 below).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0603/060329195022.gif
Figure 9. The area of acceptable and possible values of the trend completion point for EURUSD, USDJPY, EURJPY.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0603/060329195109.gif
Figure 10. The area of acceptable and possible values of the trend completion point for GBPUSD, USDJPY, GBPJPY.
Filled areas are the total of acceptable and most probable values of trend completion for these currency pairs on basis of the current wave counting.
Thus, from Figures 9 and 10 it can be clearly seen that on the basis of current wave counting possible values of the trend completion points for EURJPY and GBPJPY and their constituents EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY do not contradict each other and can be reached in the nearest future.
Note
This report is subject to change and reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release.
Reference
[*]Possible Perspectives of the Main Currency Pairs According to EWA (in Russian)[*]Possible Variants of Correction Development until March, 2006 (in Russian)[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Key Levels, Which Open New Targets (in Russian)[*]Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian)[*]Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY (Wave Analysis)[*]FOREX forecast, 2006[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, March, 2006[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comMarch 29, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari
CAD possible perspectives till 2008 and further (EWA of USD/CAD)
At the middle of July 2005 when USD/CAD value was equal to ~ 1.21 an attempt to specify project targets of the lowest value for this currency pair was made in the article CAD again (alternate USD/CAD) (in Russian). Projected targets corresponded to the range between 1.1450-1.1100.
Once current lowest value 1.1298 was reached on March 2, 2006 price rebounded upwards. Some professional wavers suppose this value is the ending of the global downward impulse or .
I doubt this point of view is correct. At first I don't think this local bottom is either impulse ending or the final point of USD/CAD falling. That is why in this article I explain my point of view. Current price value is ~ 1.17.
Refer to Figure 1 for the main variant of the global wave counting.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0603/060323121237.gif
Figure 1. Wave counting on the monthly chart. The main variant.
This variant exactly corresponds to the wave counting described in the article CAD again (alternate USD/CAD) (in Russian) last year. Additionally schematic forecast of price probable movement and possible dates of the trend reverse are shown.
First leg of the global zigzag in the shape of the downward impulse with extremely right proportions and extension in the third wave is supposed to be completed. Wave of zigzag, which may assume the shape of the extended flat or triangle, is forming.
Let's analyse wave pattern of the global downtrend on a smaller time-frame (refer to Figure 2 below).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0603/060323121326.gif
Figure 2. Wave counting on the weekly chart. The main variant.
The wave pattern, formed within 8 months from the date the previous article CAD again (alternate USD/CAD) (in Russian) was released, gives additional material for analysis, projections and targets specification.
At first, one of projected level, expected Robert Miner's 127% external retracement (1.1443), was reached.
Secondly, the structure of supposed wave (B) assumes that its further downward forming is possible.
Thirdly, forecasted USD decline since April 2006 assumes that at least within half a year USD/CAD drop is more probable than advance (refer to FOREX forecast, 2006.
The fourth, inner wave structure of the supposed wave (B) excludes its presentation in the shape of downward impulse.
At last, the fact that the first and fourth sub-waves do not overlap and the outer shape of wave (B) make the supposition that it may assume the shape of the diagonal triangle less possible.
Taking into consideration the above information we may draw the following conclusion:
[*]Downward corrective wave (B) of the extended flat or of the expanding (running?) triangle keeps forming.[*]Wave (B) is assuming the shape of the double zigzag (a combination of zigzags) with wave X in the shape of the running triple zigzag (refer to New Wave Pattern and New Classification of Extended Corrections in the FOREX Market).[*]Further values of Robert Miner's external retracements (162% (1.1089) and 200% (1.0704)) may be treated as price targets of possible ending of wave (B).[*]Wave (B) may complete almost simultaneously with completion of USD downward movement (the check time is the end of October 2006, though this decline may last till May 2007, refer to FOREX forecast, 2006).
Let us discuss wave pattern of the expected wave (B) on the daily chart (Figure 3 below).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0603/060323121423.gif
Figure 3. Wave counting on the daily chart. The main variant.
One of possible variants of wave counting is shown in Figure 3. Expected wave W is a combination of double and triple zigzags. Wave X is supposed to be assuming the shape of the running triple zigzag, far from the first one in this part of the chart.
In case the supposition is correct price projections of CAD bottom may be additionally calculated by the length of wave W and Fibo coefficients. Truly, wave X is not completed yet and the value of its ending is about 1.1750.
In this case USD/CAD price fall may last to 1.1040-1.0610, that is in keeping with the calculated values through Robert Miner's external retracements. Completion of wave pattern of supposed wave Y of (B), which has not begun yet, will be determinant for more precise specification of CAD bottom. Critical levels for the current wave counting are shown in the chart.
From the one hand, complicated corrective pattern gives rise to a variety of possible wave counting patterns, from the other hand it indirectly confirms that cunning wave (B) is forming, not impulse ending.
To specify possible points of wave X of (B) ending and wave Y of (B) beginning let's discuss 120M chart (refer to Figure 4 below).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0603/060323121520.gif
Figure 4. Wave counting on 120M chart.
Two possible variants of further movement are shown in Figure 4. Final wave of running zigzag X is supposed to be assuming the shape of a simple zigzag. Its completion is expected around 1.1750.
One of possible alternate variants of the global counting is shown in Figure 5 below.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0603/060323121604.gif
Figure 5. Wave counting on the monthly chart. Alternate variant.
According to this scenario global downward impulse is not completed yet and its third wave (3) is assuming the shape of the impulse with extension in its first wave 1 of (3) and correlation of waves (3) and (1) equal to Fibo coefficient 4.237.
The supposition that wave 5 of (3) may assume the shape of the diagonal triangle (to say nothing about impulse!) is doubtful. That is why this variant is considered to be alternate.
Addidtion on 03 May, 2006
=
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0605/060503114453.gif
On April 3 CAD formed local height at 1.1770 (wave X).
On May 3 price reached the lowest target at 1.1040. This value corresponds to 62% of wave W length and skewed triangle height (refer to Skewed Triangles in FX).
Note
This report is subject to change and reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release.
Reference
[*]Possible Perspectives of the Main Currency Pairs According to EWA (in Russian)[*]Possible Variants of Correction Development until March, 2006 (in Russian)[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Key Levels, Which Open New Targets (in Russian)[*]Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian)[*]Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY (Wave Analysis)[*]FOREX forecast, 2006[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, March, 2006[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comMarch 23, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari
Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY (Wave Analysis)
Expected wave counting of USDJPY weekly chart is shown in Annual Wave Analysis, 2006. Until the last moment the first upward part of final wave of the global triangle was labeled as a double zigzag.
From December, 2005 some correction is forming on this chart, judging by its structure it may be a horizontal triangle. This very triangle forming makes me revise the counting of the last upward part of JPY movement (refer to Figure 1 below).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0603/060309150123.gif
Figure 1. Wave counting on the daily chart.
The variant shown in Figure 1 is not ideal, though it does not break the rules of Wave Analysis. Moreover it corresponds to the principle of Occam's Razor .
This variant is confirmed by the following arguments:
[*]Impulse structure is developing within the clear trading channel.[*]Impulse corrections are in keeping with the guidelines for both depth and shape alternations of patterns (67% - ~38%, deep triple zigzag – horizontal triangle).[*]Duration of the fourth impulse wave is longer than that one of the second wave.[*]In the third wave of impulse 3 extension formed in its fifth sub-wave ( of 3), it is characteristic of the third waves.[*]Wave 3 is ~ 2.618 times longer than wave 1 (Fibo).[*]Wave 4 is assuming the shape of the horizontal triangle, which is characteristic of the fourth impulse waves.[*]Zigzag is the most widely spread pattern for waves of a triangle. It is quite reasonable to assume that this impulse is first “leg” (A) of zigzag .“Excessive” extension of fourth waves of 1 and of 3 in relation to their secondary waves and intricate structure of wave of 1 disquiet.
Possible variant of wave counting of the initial part (including that one of wave of 1) is shown in Figure 2 below.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0603/060309150226.gif
Figure 2. Wave counting on 480M chart of the initial part.
In case the supposition is correct once wave 4 is completed in the shape of the horizontal triangle price upward thrust should be expected. The scope of this move will correspond to the widest part of this triangle. Strong resistance 122 and 126, suitable for project targets (refer to Figure 1 above and Figure 3 below), is at this level and at the distance of 0.618 from it.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0603/060309150312.gif
Figure 3. Wave counting on 480M chart of the final part.
Currently forming contracting horizontal triangle is of quite a regular shape (refer to Figure 3). Correlation of one-direction waves corresponds to the regular Fibo coefficient 0.5. Thus we may assume that final triangle wave may coincide with this proportion.
In case the supposition is correct this triangle may complete around 116.60.
Moreover this impulse may help to project JPY movement in 2006 and 2007 as taking into consideration the above information wave of the global triangle will most probably assume the shape of the zigzag, most widely spread pattern for waves of triangles (refer to Figure 4).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0603/060309150528.gif
Figure 4. Wave counting on the weekly chart.
In case the supposition is correct corrective wave (B) of zigzag may last up to the next pulse point at the junction of 2006-2007. Strong resistance levels at 112 and 108.50 in this case approximately correspond to Fibo 50% and 62% of wave (A).
Then final upward impulse (or diagonal triangle) (C) is expected to start forming.
Reference
[*]Possible Perspectives of the Main Currency Pairs According to EWA (in Russian)[*]Possible Variants of Correction Development until March, 2006 (in Russian)[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Key Levels, Which Open New Targets (in Russian)[*]Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian)[*]FOREX forecast, 2006[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, March, 2006[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comMarch 9, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari
New Wave Pattern and New Classification of Extended Corrections in the FOREX Market.
Ad
This article unites Dmitry Voznuy's two previously published works:
[*]“Running Triple Three" Wave Pattern in the FX market (in Russian).[*]Classification of Extended Wave Corrections (in Russian).
Introduction
For those who are interested in wave analysis it is not a secret that up to 65% of time the FOREX market spends in corrections, which are the most difficult periods to analyze and predict further price movements. Unfortunately, there is another problem: lack of literature about complex wave structures.
At the same time, analyzing financial markets, we come across wave patterns, which are just modifications of classical patterns, described in literature. Their features and characteristics are somewhat different from their prototypes, that makes it necessary to single them out as a separate class, e.g. Robert Prechter's research of leading diagonal triangles, which he singled out in a separate subclass Wedges because of their unique features and characteristics {5}.
In this work features and characteristics of new sub-class of wave combinations, Running Triple Patterns, are given. The author of this article, Dmitry Voznuy, analyzed them in the FOREX market and he suggests new classification of extended corrections, depending on their features.
1. Extended Wave Corrections
According to the Wave Theory of Ralf N. Elliott, price chart reflects traders' psychology. That is why the same or alike patterns on the chart should correspond with identical mass emotions. It is obvious, judging by price charts, that horizontal or almost horizontal formations take the majority of corrective time.
That is why it is natural that a horizontal triangle pattern is the best studied extended wave correction, that is correction which consists of more than three waves. Its unique characteristics make it easier to analyze and predict financial markets. That is why every more or less horizontal and extended wave pattern was chosen for analysis and comparison.
Several types of extended corrections were described by Alfred Frost and Robert Prechter in their most complete description of the Elliott Wave Theory {1}:
[*]triple combinations (triple threes (ТТ) and triple zigzags (ТZ)),[*]horizontal triangles (Т).
Let us review the main features of these patterns.
1.1. Triple Three
Triple three pattern is an array of overlapping wave corrections of simpler types (lower degree), including various types of zigzags, flats and triangles. Each action wave is labeled W, Y and Z. Reaction waves, labeled X, may assume the shape of any corrective pattern, though zigzag is most common. This pattern is shown schematically in Figure 1 below.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0512/051220111439.gif
Figure 1. Outline of the Triple Three Pattern.
The first simple pattern (W) often constitutes an adequate price correction in the triple three, whereas almost horizontal doubling (Y) or tripling (Z) appears to occur mainly to extend the duration of the corrective process. Sometimes additional time is required to reach the opposite channel line or to become similar to another wave correction in an impulse.
Thus, a triple three is an extended horizontal wave structure 3-3-3-3-3.
R.Elliott in his book “Nature’s Law” (1946) {2} indicated that the entire formation “could slant against the larger trend” {1}, that is may have bias against the previous trend. Alfred Frost and Robert Prechter wrote {1} that “…we have never found this to be the case” (about the stock market).
The thing is that Alfred Frost and Robert Prechter apply additional restrictions to the triple three – they consider that no more than one zigzag may occur in this pattern as action waves W, Y, Z and no more than one triangle in the whole pattern {1} (the latter results from the features of the triangle itself). Probably, the authors think that the second and the third zigzags may turn this pattern from horizontal into countertrend pattern (compare Figures 1 and 2).
1.2. Triple Zigzag
Judging by the wave structure, triple zigzag pattern is a particular case of a triple three pattern, where each of its action waves may be a zigzag only (simple/double/triple). Action waves are labeled W, Y and Z. Reaction waves, labeled X, may assume the shape of any corrective pattern, though zigzags are most common. This pattern is shown schematically in Figure 2, below.
Triple zigzag differs from the other patterns not only by its more sharp angle (refer to Figure 2), but by its goals also. First zigzag (W) of a triple zigzag pattern is rarely large enough to constitute an adequate price correction of the preceding wave. The doubling (Y) and tripling (Z) of the initial form is usually necessary to create adequately sized price retracement.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0512/051220111607.gif
Figure 2. Outline of the Triple Zigzag Pattern.
Thus, a triple zigzag is an extended wave structure 3-3-3-3-3.
Horizontal triangles present a separate sub-class (refer to Figure 3 below). Horizontal triangles are the most famous, best studied class of horizontal corrections. They have their own system of labeling and they differ by some distinct features, such as, for example, restrictions of location in the pattern of the larger degree, that the other mentioned types of corrections do not have.
1.3. Horizontal Triangle
Schematic patterns of regular triangles are shown in Figure 3 below.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0512/051220111744.gif
Figure 3. Outlines of Horizontal Triangle Patterns.
Horizontal triangle consists of five overlapping corrective waves. Wave E may also be a horizontal triangle. Forming triangle lines always slant in different directions. All types of triangles may be subdivided into two groups – contracting (6 types in the upper part of the chart) and expanding (2 types in the lower part of the chart).
Wave E of a contracting triangle may not reach basis line A-C or break it but it still can not leave price area of wave C, otherwise triangle geometry will be broken.
Thus, a triangle is an extended horizontal wave pattern 3-3-3-3-3.
1.4 Similarity and Difference of Extended Corrections
First of all it should be noted that every extended wave correction has identical wave structure 3-3-3-3-3.
Triple zigzag is a particular case of a triple three pattern, as all its action waves may be only zigzags by definition. In accordance with its tasks, it may be the deepest correction among all extended corrections.
External difference between a triangle and a triple three is in quite a conventional structure of these patterns. They are almost horizontal and their inner structures are absolutely identical. These patterns show traders' balance of strength in financial markets, their hesitation. Thus, but for different system of labeling, they differ only by additional restrictions, applied to the triple three patterns by Alfred J. Frost and Robert R. Prechter {1}.
Due to the classics of the wave theory we know that it is horizontal triangle, that may be only the prior wave in the pattern of the larger degree, that is:
[*]the forth impulse wave,[*]wave B of a zigzag,[*]wave X in a double combination,[*]second wave X in a triple combination,[*]the final wave in a double/triple three, preceding the final wave of the larger degree.
Due to this feature some important restrictions may be applied to its position in the pattern of the larger degree, that is the following patterns can never be triangles:
[*]the second wave of impulse or wedge,[*]wave W of a double three,[*]waves W, Y and the first wave X in a triple combination,[*]waves A, B, C of a horizontal triangle,[*]waves 1, 2, 3 and 5 of a diagonal triangle.
These features are significant for those who analyze financial markets using Elliott Wave Principle, though it is not clear why these features are not characteristic for the other horizontal or almost horizontal extended corrections.
2. Running Corrections
As it was mentioned earlier, external difference between a triangle and a triple combination is in the shape of the patterns. Triangle forming lines always slant in different directions (one line may be horizontal). Both lines of an ideal triple combination should be either horizontal or against the predominant trend.
That is why any deviation of the triple three forming lines triggers either slant of these lines in different directions or slant in the same direction but along the trend of larger degree.
When the forming lines slant in different directions, a horizontal triangle is formed due to the identical inner structure of these patterns (3-3-3-3-3). When forming lines slant along the dominating trend, a running triple combination is formed. It has not been studied ever before.
Let's speak about known types of running corrections. I could find descriptions only of two such patterns, whereas other patterns were only mentioned.
Running flat is one of them. In “The Wave Principle”, 1938 {2} by Ralf N. Elliott, it is called strong correction.
Hamilton Bolton considered it to be an irregular type of corrections, together with an expanded flat. He wrote about it not in his famous book “The Elliott Wave Principle. A Critical Appraisal.” (1960), but in 1965, in his annual magazine “The Elliott Wave Principle of stock Market Behavior. Bank Credit Analyst Supplement” {3}.
Robert Balan in his book “Elliott Wave Principle. Applied to the Foreign Exchange Markets.”{6} just repeated Hamilton Bolton's classification.
In 1967 and 1970 in column “Thrusts” in “The Elliott Wave Principle of stock Market Behavior. BCA Supplement” {4}, which Alfred Frost continued to publish after Hamilton Bolton death, he wrote:
“A flat formation is generally followed by dynamic market action, which Elliott called a thrust. Within a thrust, corrections are usually subnormal in character, giving impetus to each successive move up or down. Inverted flats are followed by downward thrusts. Triangles have the same technical implication as flats in generating strong market action.”
At last, in 1978 Alfred Frost and Robert Prechter in “Elliott Wave Principle. Key to Market Behavior.” {1} presented new term “running flat”:
“In a rare variation on the 3-3-5 pattern, which we call a running flat, wave B terminates well beyond the beginning of wave A as in expanded flat, but wave C fails to travel its full distance, falling short of the level at which wave A ended. … (as in Fig.4) … Apparently in this case, the forces in the direction of the larger trend are so powerful that the pattern is skewed in that direction.”
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0512/051220111934.gif
Figure 4. Outlines of Running Flat Patterns.
In 1997 Robert Miner in “Dynamic Trading” {7} mentioned similar running correction as a pattern, preceding continuation of the strong trend. But he assumed that wave A of this correction may consist of 5 waves, and sometimes wave B may be shorter than wave A.
Besides running flat Alfred Frost and Robert Prechter described in their book {1} another type of running patterns - running triangle, which wave b expands outside the beginning of wave a, comparing with regular contracting triangles, formed within the price area of its wave a (refer to Figure 5 below).
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Figure 5. Outlines of Running Triangle Patterns.
“Running double three” and even “running triple three” were briefly mentioned only once by Glenn Neely {8}. They were referred to as “very rare patterns” and there was even no draft of running triple three.
I did not manage to find any research of this type of corrections in sources, known to me. Nevertheless, these patterns are too frequent in the FX market to ignore them.
3. Running triple combinations
Running triple combination (RTC) or Running triple pattern (RTP) combines features and characteristics of their nearest relations - a triple combination and a horizontal triangle.
3.1. Features of Running Triple Pattern.
RTP is a combination of overlapping wave corrections of simpler types, including various types of zigzags, flats and triangles. Each action wave is labeled W, Y and Z. Reaction waves, labeled X, may assume the shape of any corrective pattern, though zigzags are most common. Forming lines of this pattern always slant in the same direction, coinciding with the direction of the preceding trend. Judging by the external shape, contracting and expanding running triple patterns are distinguished (refer to Figure 6 below).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0512/051220112119.gif
Figure 6. Outlines of Running Triple Patterns.
Just as a horizontal correction, running triple pattern reflects hesitation of traders, strength balance of bulls and bears, which is gradually outbalanced by the leading trend. It triggers some definite mutual positions of its highs and bottoms and the final price thrust after it (refer to Figure 6).
Just like their classical prototypes, running triple patterns are subdivided into:
[*]running triple threes (RТТ);[*]running triple zigzags (RTZ).
Judging by wave structure, running triple zigzags are a particular case of running triple threes, as their action waves may be only zigzags by definition (simple, double or triple). But, once RTP data bank in the FOREX market had been analyzed, it turned out that the majority of them are running triple zigzags.
The main difference between running triple patterns and their prototypes (TT and TZ) is their characteristics rather than features, as they coincide with unique characteristics of horizontal triangles. Position of running triple correction in the pattern of the larger degree is one of the most important features.
3.2. Characteristics of Running Triple Patterns
I managed to find a running triple combination in the following positions in patterns of larger degree:
[*]wave 4 of an impulse and a diagonal triangle,[*]wave B of a zigzag,[*]wave X of a double zigzag.
This corresponds to three possible positions from five for horizontal triangles, an expanded horizontal wave structure. Moreover, I failed to find RTP in the positions where horizontal triangle should not be by definition:
[*]the second wave of an impulse, a wedge or a diagonal triangle,[*]wave W of a double three,[*]wave W and Y of a triple three,[*]first wave X of a triple three or a triple zigzag,[*]waves A, B, C of a horizontal triangle,[*]waves 1, 2, 3 and 5 of a diagonal triangle.
These facts are well enough to suppose that a running triple pattern can be only prior figure in the pattern of larger degree by analogy with a horizontal triangle.
Moreover, when RTP is forming at the place of the forth impulse wave, like a horizontal triangle, the final price thrust, which follows it, in the majority of cases is tending to cover the distance equal, as minimum, to the height of the running triple pattern (H rtp). Very rarely the final impulse wave is 62% or 78% of this pattern height.
In case when a running triple three is wave B of a zigzag or wave X of a double zigzag, the price movement target after it should be better defined by the length of the first wave of the larger degree pattern and suitable Fibo coefficient, rather then wave X height. Even in these cases the price will try to cover minimum 62% of H rtp.
In different charts (weekly and smaller time-frame) I found lots of such patterns. Some of them are shown below.
3.3. Real Examples of Running Triple Zigzag Patterns
It seems that a running triple zigzag contradicts the essence of the wave theory, forming correction slant in the direction, not against the leading trend, forming not the deepest but minimal and even (very rear!) negative retracement. This is factually proved in the FOREX market. In the majority of cases RTZ forms retracements from 24% to 3% of previous impulse and the maximum negative retracement is fixed at the rate minus 3.38% (refer to Figures 7 and 8).
By this time there are more than 60 examples of running triple patterns in different time-frames in the data bank of RTP (> 95% out of them are RTZ). Table 1 presents mutual percentage of wave patterns in the FX markets with running triple pattern.
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Table 1. Mutual percentage of wave patterns with RTP in the FX markets.
Of course, because of quite a small sample these figures may be considered approximate. Charts with a running triple zigzag pattern are shown in Figures 7-11.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0512/051220112545.gif
Figure 7. RTZ as wave iv of an impulse. Negative retracement (-3.38%).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0512/051220112628.gif
Figure 8. RTZ as wave (iv) of an impulse. Positive retracement (16%).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0512/051220112734.gif
Figure 9. RTZ as wave (4) of a diagonal triangle.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0512/051220112827.gif
Figure 10. RTZ as wave (b) of a zigzag.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0512/051220112911.gif
Figure 11. RTZ as wave Х of a double zigzag.
Current classification of extended corrections should be modified as a new type of corrections emerged, moreover there are some contradictions in the current classification.
4. Classification of the Extended Corrections.
First of all I would like to specify some items in the current classification.
Horizontal position of the forming lines of a correction, theoretically possible at triple three patterns, is very rare on the real market and it may be transition state between slanting triple threes and horizontal triangles.
From my point of view, a horizontal triple pattern is much alike horizontal triangles, rather than classical slanting corrections judging by their form and characteristics. Even theoretically a corrective pattern with horizontal forming lines is just a particular case of horizontal triangles, being by its external shape some transition form between contracting and expanding triangles. It also should be noted that this pattern by its external shape is like a rectangle (or a parallelogram).
More than that, judging by internal structure triple patterns with horizontal forming lines may consist of zigzags (as well as triangles), that is to be triple zigzags according to the old classification, preserving its horizontality. In this case one feature of classical triple zigzags is lost – sharp angle of development and goals, assigned by the classics to this type of corrections, are also doubtful.
Of course, external shape of extended correction (in case their internal structure is identical) is just a feature for its accurate identification, which does not allow to assign any pattern to the group with unique characteristics, is illustrative of triangles.
It is high time to mention new regularity among extended corrections in the FOREX market. It is known that horizontal triangles and running triple patterns possess some unique characteristics. For example, they may be only a prior figure in the pattern of the larger degree. The other corrective patterns have not had such characteristic till now.
I succeeded in finding further interesting feature of extended corrections - the more horizontal classical triple corrective pattern (TT or TZ) is, the more it is probable that it will possess characteristics of horizontal triangle, thus being the prior figure in the pattern of the larger degree.
According to the said above, a rectangle (as it is absolutely horizontal) may be assigned to the group of triangles in the classification of corrections.
To rectangle types should be also assigned “failed triangles”, that is corrections, which are at first assigned to the category of triangles due to the slant of their forming lines, but then they may be considered to be only a horizontal triple three (or triple zigzag) because of broken geometry. A triangle shape is often broken by the last price thrust before the direction of the trend is changed (wave Z), which leaves price area of wave Y (and W). One of examples is shown in Figure 12.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0512/051220113018.gif
Figure 12. Rectangle as wave (iv) of an impulse.
Refer to Table 2 for complete modified classification:
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Table 2. Proposed classification of extended corrections.
Note. In the table outlines of patterns are shown for the bullish market. For the bearish market they should be reversed.
The order of corrections in this classification reflects depth of possible retracement, formed by corrections: triple zigzags form the deepest retracement whereas running triple zigzags may form the smallest one.
Moreover, extended corrections of groups II – III possess all the features of horizontal triangles, the first one “tries” to do so.
As for labeling, I consider that it should remain unchanged.
Conclusion
From my point of view proposed classification reflects the main features and characteristics of extended corrections more clearly, not only adding new types, but also assigning groups features more logically.
Moreover, new patterns and characteristics of extended corrections will be useful for practical usage of the Wave Principle in the FX market.
Reference
{1} “Elliott Wave Principle. Key to Market Behavior.”, A.J.Frost, R.R.Prechter, Jr., 1978.
{2} “R.N.Elliott’s Masterworks. The Definitive Collection”, edited by R.R.Prechter, Jr., 1994.
{3} “The Complete Elliott Wave Writings of A.Hamilton Bolton”, edited by R.R.Prechter, Jr., 1994.
{4} “The Elliott Wave Writings of A.J.Frost and Richard Russell”, edited by R.R.Prechter, Jr., 1996.
{5} “The Elliott Wave Theorist”, November 2003 issue.
{6} “Elliott Wave Principle. Applied to the Foreign Exchange Markets”, Robert Balan, 1989.
{7} “Dynamic Trading. Dynamic Concepts In Time, Price and Pattern Analysis”, Robert Miner, 1997.
{8} “Mastering Elliott Wave aka Neo-Wave. Version 2.0”. Glenn Neely, 1990.
{9} “Running Triple Three Wave Pattern in the FX market”, D.Voznuy, Forex Magazine #83, August 2005. (in Russian)
(10} “Classification of Extended Wave Corrections”, D.Voznuy, Forex Magazine #91, October 2005. (in Russian)
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comDecember 6, 2005The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari.
Imaginary Skewer
Local price movement against the dollar was completed on September, 5. I assume it was the second wave (X) of the triple zigzag. At the same time it might be a part of this wave-link, e.g. wave A of (X), whereas wave (X) may still keep forming.
The last variant arose from the following facts:
[*]At first, many-week horizontal triangle, formed on the charts of all described currency pairs in 2004 (in figures below it is encircled by blue ellipse). Its skewer may become the skewer of further corrections in future – now and/or from the second half of 2006 on the way back of price movement against the dollar.[*]Secondly, correction three pattern (probably, wave (A of (X)), which tested this skewer by its middle part;[*]At last, this variant does not contradict the supposition that triple zigzag is forming, that is considered to be the main one.
In case this variant is confirmed, in the nearest future this skewer may become the center of quite an extended horizontal or almost horizontal correction, e.g. horizontal triangle or (running) triple three.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0509/050918191055.gif
Figure 1. Possible skewer for USD/CHF.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0509/050918191145.gif
Figure 2. Possible skewer for EUR/USD.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0509/050918191231.gif
Figure 3. Possible skewer for GBP/USD.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0509/050918191317.gif
Figure 4. Possible skewer for USD/JPY.
Note that this is one variant of further price behavior in addition to the scenarios, described previously (refer to Possible Variants of Correction Development until March, 2006 (in Russian). I hope that in the nearest future price will either confirm or cancel it.
Reference
[*]FOREX forecast, 2005 (in Russian)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, September, 2005 (in Russian)[*]Possible Variants of Correction Development until March, 2006 (in Russian)[*]Wave Counting Marking (in Russian)[*]Typical Trading Plan using Elliott's Waves (in Russian)* Wave analysis
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comSeptember 18, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari
Wave Counting Marking (based on the last materials of Robert R. Prechter)
Table 1. Agreed Wave Counting Marking.
Wave Degree5s With the Trend3s Against the TrendTime FrameTriad of Arabic FiguresTriad of Upper CaseGrand Supercycle
*
* Millennial, secular Supercycle
(I) (II) (III) (IV) (V) (a) (b) (c) (d) (e)
(w) (x) (y) (z) Secular, annual Cycle
I II III IV V a b c d e
w x y z Annual, quarterly, monthly Primary
*
* Quarterly, monthly, weekly, daily Intermediate
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (A) (B) (C) (D) (E)
(W) (X) (Y) (Z) Monthly, weekly, daily Minor
1 2 3 4 5 A B C D E
W X Y Z Monthly, weekly, daily, 240 min Minute
*
* Weekly, daily, 480-60 min Minuette
(i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v) (a) (b) (c) (d) (e)
(w) (x) (y) (z) Daily, 480-60 min Subminuette
i ii iii iv v a b c d e
w x y z 480-60 min and less Micro-1, -2, -3 Triad of Arabic FiguresTriad of Upper CaseMicro-4, -5, -6 Triad of Roman FiguresTriad of Lower Case
* In his works Robert Prechter used encircled symbol to label some wave degrees, but later this symbol was replaced by square brackets to ease wave counting marking, as there is no encircled symbol in most of the programs.
Arabic figures coincide with the letters in the upper case (1 – A), whereas Roman figures correspond to the letters in the lower case (I - a, i - a). Roman figures in the upper case should be used only from the Cycle and higher.
Please note that this way of marking makes it possible to label wave degrees without any limits of increase or decrease of time frames of the examined charts. Thus it provides unique identification of wave degrees and their patterns with almost unlimited number of degrees within them.
There is the following scheme to choose the kind of symbols for wave degrees, decreasing to the right: -(A1)-A1--(ai)-ai and then again -(A1)-A1--(ai)-ai and again -(A1)-A1--(ai)-ai etc.
Each triad differs from the other one by its font size, whereas degrees within each triad differ not only by additional marks (), [], but by their color as well.
Note
I added Micro-1, -2, ..., -6 names for the smallest wave degrees (1...60 min charts).
Four examples are given below to illustrate wave counting on USD/CHF quarterly, monthly, weekly and daily charts (they are taken mainly from Robert Prechter's works). Wave degrees from Cycle to Minuette can be clearly seen there.
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Figure 1. Example of Wave Counting on the Quarterly Chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0404/040408063908.gif
Figure 2. Example of Wave Counting on the Monthly Chart.
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Figure 3. Example of Wave Counting on the Weekly Chart.
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Figure 4. Example of Wave Counting on the Daily Chart.
--
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari.
Note
[*]Once the opposite to the trend edge is tested any impulse or zigzag of any size may be considered to be completed. The inner wave marking of such a movement is of conventional character.[*]The error of the trend reversal points defining with the help of impulse method is about +/- 1..4 time units. Date on the weekly chart is the last day of the current week.[*]Often support and resistance levels, mentioned in the reports, are remote from the current price. In this case confirming or denying signals may be delayed. That is why in addition to the critical levels analysis inner structure analysis of the waves, moving in the same direction, should be used.[*]It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show the probable price movements. This report is subject to change and reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release.[*]Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides.[*]Survey wave analysis, alternative variants and possible schematic price movements are given in:[*]…“Imaginary Skewer”... [*]MONTHLY Wave Analysis, November, 2005
1. USD/CHF
For survey wave analysis for this currency refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, November, 2005. Refer to Figure 1 for the draft of wave analysis for this currency on 480M chart
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0511/051101074636.gif
Figure 1. Wave analysis on 480M chart.
The wave is expected to have assumed the shape of wave surface.
In the mid-term perspective uptrend is expected to keep forming. The price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 2.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0511/051101074721.gif
Figure 2. Wave analysis on 120M chart.
In Figure 2 wave analysis for this currency is shown on 120M chart. Upward impulse is expected to be forming.
In the short-term perspective uptrend is expected to keep forming. The price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
2. EUR/USD
The above information about CHF is the mirror image of that one about EUR. For survey wave analysis for this currency refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, November, 2005. Refer to Figure 3 for the draft of wave analysis for this currency on 480M chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0511/051101074814.gif
Figure 3. Wave analysis on 480M chart.
The wave is expected to have assumed the shape of wave surface.
In the mid-term perspective downtrend is expected to keep forming. The price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 4.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0511/051101074856.gif
Figure 4. Wave analysis on 120M chart.
In Figure 4 wave analysis for this currency is shown on 120M chart. Downward impulse is expected to be forming.
In the short-term perspective downtrend is expected to keep forming. The price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
3. GBP/USD
For survey wave analysis for this currency refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, November, 2005. Refer to Figure 5 for the draft of wave analysis for this currency on 480M chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0511/051101074940.gif
Figure 5. Wave analysis on 480M chart.
The wave is expected to have assumed the shape of extended wave surface.
In the mid-term perspective downtrend is expected to keep forming. The price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 6.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0511/051101075023.gif
Figure 6. Wave analysis on 120M chart.
In Figure 6 wave analysis for this currency is shown on 120M chart. Downward impulse is expected to be forming.
In the short-term perspective downtrend is expected to keep forming. The price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
4. USD/JPY
For survey wave analysis for this currency refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, November, 2005. Refer to Figure 7 for the renewed draft of wave analysis for this currency on 480M chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0511/051101075108.gif
Figure 7. Wave analysis on 480M chart.
The yen found itself in a very interesting situation. The final wave of the presupposed (v) impulse may be considered to be a full v wave. Especially as it is equal to the widest part of the triangle (refer to Figure 8). So the upward impulse may be almost completed.
Though the last price spike upward may be just the first of v sub-wave, that is as its constituents, i и iii waves, are almost equal, the expected (v) impulse may develop stretching in its fifth v wave.
In the mid-term perspective wave perspectives are expected to become clearer. The price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 8.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0511/051101075155.gif
Figure 8. Wave analysis on 120M chart.
Zigzag, mentioned yesterday, having added several waves transformed into an upward impulse stretching to the final wave (the ? impulse). It may be expected on 480M chart.
The (5) of high break will be a signal of the forming stretching in the v wave, only once rebound is formed (the ? wave).
In the short-term perspective wave perspectives are expected to become clearer. The price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
Reference
[*]…“Imaginary Skewer”... [*]MONTHLY Wave Analysis, November, 2005Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comNovember, 01, 2005The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-13 05:57 编辑 ]
Note
[*]Once the opposite to the trend edge is tested any impulse or zigzag of any size may be considered to be completed. The inner wave marking of such a movement is of conventional character.[*]The error of the trend reversal points defining with the help of impulse method is about +/- 1..4 time units. Date on the weekly chart is the last day of the current week.[*]Often support and resistance levels, mentioned in the reports, are remote from the current price. In this case confirming or denying signals may be delayed. That is why in addition to the critical levels analysis inner structure analysis of the waves, moving in the same direction, should be used.[*]It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show the probable price movements. This report is subject to change and reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release.[*]Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides.[*]Survey wave analysis, alternative variants and possible schematic price movements are given in:[*]…“Imaginary Skewer”... [*]MONTHLY Wave Analysis, November, 2005
1. USD/CHF
For survey wave analysis for this currency refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, November, 2005. Refer to Figure 1 for the draft of wave analysis for this currency on 480M chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0511/051125083929.gif
Figure 1. Wave analysis on 480M chart.
Price downward movement may be a wedge. If this supposition is correct the Х wave may assume the shape of a simple zigzag with completion in the mid of December at 1.27.
In the mid-term plan the Х wave is expected to keep forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 2.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0511/051125084013.gif
Figure 2. Wave analysis on 120M chart.
Possible wave analysis is shown in Figure 2. Upward correction (the wave) may surpass the W wave top level, but as the way, minimum required for correction, has been passed, prices may drop at any moment.
In the short-term plan the wave is expected to keep forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
2. EUR/USD
The above information about CHF is the mirror image of that one about EUR. For survey wave analysis for this currency refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, November, 2005. Refer to Figure 3 for the draft of wave analysis for this currency on 480M chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0511/051125084057.gif
Figure 3. Wave analysis on 480M chart.
Price upward movement may be a wedge. If this supposition is correct the Х wave may assume the shape of a simple zigzag with completion in the mid of December at 1.22.
In the mid-term plan the Х wave is expected to keep forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 4.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0511/051125084137.gif
Figure 4 . Wave analysis on 120M chart.
Possible wave analysis is shown in Figure 4. Downward correction (the wave) may fall below the W wave top, but as the way, minimum required for correction, has been passed, prices may jump at any moment.
In the short-term plan the wave is expected to keep forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
3. GBP/USD
For survey wave analysis for this currency refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, November, 2005. Refer to Figure 5 for the draft of wave analysis for this currency on 480M chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0511/051125084227.gif
Figure 5 . Wave analysis on 480M chart.
As the expected final wave of the impulse is not formed yet, the alternative variant in the lower part of the chart is valid.
In the mid-term plan price behavior is expected to become more clear. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 6.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0511/051125084313.gif
Figure 6. Wave analysis on 120M chart.
Possible wave analysis is shown in Figure 6. If the supposition is correct, then in case the**i* and v waves are approximately equal, the (v) impulse completion may be expected around 1.71.
In the short-term plan the (v) impulse completion is expected. Possible prices behavior is expected to become more clear. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
4. USD/JPY
For survey wave analysis for this currency refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, November, 2005. Refer to Figure 7 for the draft of wave analysis for this currency on 480M chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0511/051125084401.gif
Figure 7 . Wave analysis on 480M chart.
Possible wave analysis is shown in Figure 7. The wave of the A impulse is supposed to complete its forming now.
In the mid-term perspective the А impulse completion and the B correction are expected. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 8.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0511/051125084447.gif
Figure 8 . Wave analysis on 120M chart.
Possible wave analysis is shown in Figure 8. The wave is supposed to be forming with extension in the first (i) wave. If this supposition is correct, the (v) wave should be shorter than the (iii) wave with completion below 120.90.
In the short-term plan the impulse is expected to be completed. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
Reference
[*]…“Imaginary Skewer”... [*]MONTHLY Wave Analysis, November, 2005Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comNovember, 25, 2005The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
Note
[*]Once the opposite to the trend edge is tested any impulse or zigzag of any size may be considered to be completed. The inner wave marking of such a movement is of conventional character.[*]The error of the trend reversal points defining with the help of impulse method is about +/- 1..4 time units. Date on the weekly chart is the last day of the current week.[*]Often support and resistance levels, mentioned in the reports, are remote from the current price. In this case confirming or denying signals may be delayed. That is why in addition to the critical levels analysis inner structure analysis of the waves, moving in the same direction, should be used.[*]It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show the probable price movements. This report is subject to change and reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release.[*]Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides.[*]Survey wave analysis, alternative variants and possible schematic price movements are given in:[*]…“Imaginary Skewer”... [*]MONTHLY Wave Analysis, November, 2005
1. USD/CHF
For survey wave analysis for this currency refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, November, 2005. Refer to Figure 1 for the draft of wave analysis for this currency on 480M chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0511/051128073214.gif
Figure 1. Wave analysis on 480M chart.
The wave may be treated as the wedge. If this supposition is correct the Х wave may assume the shape of a simple zigzag with completion in the mid of December at 1.27.
In the mid-term plan the Х wave is expected to keep forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 2.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0511/051128073318.gif
Figure 2. Wave analysis on 120M chart.
Possible wave analysis is shown in Figure 2. Upward correction (the wave) may surpass the W wave top level. Return to 76% is the optimal variant for this pattern.
In the short-term plan the wave is expected to start forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
2. EUR/USD
The above information about CHF is the mirror image of that one about EUR. For survey wave analysis for this currency refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, November, 2005. Refer to Figure 3 for the draft of wave analysis for this currency on 480M chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0511/051128073400.gif
Figure 3. Wave analysis on 480M chart.
The wave may be treated as the wedge. If this supposition is correct the Х wave may assume the shape of a simple zigzag with completion in the mid of December at 1.22.
In the mid-term plan the Х wave is expected to keep forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 4.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0511/051128073439.gif
Figure 4 . Wave analysis on 120M chart.
Possible wave analysis is shown in Figure 4. Downward correction (the wave) may intersect the W wave top. But return to 76% is the optimal variant for this pattern.
In the short-term plan the wave is expected to start forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
3. GBP/USD
For survey wave analysis for this currency refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, November, 2005. Refer to Figure 5 for the draft of wave analysis for this currency on 480M chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0511/051128073518.gif
Figure 5 . Wave analysis on 480M chart.
The impulse of the W zigzag is supposed to complete.
In the mid-term plan the impulse completion is expected to be confirmed and the beginning of the Х wave forming is expected. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 6.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0511/051128073558.gif
Figure 6. Wave analysis on 120M chart.
Possible wave analysis is shown in Figure 6.
In the short-term plan the (v) impulse completion is expected to be confirmed and the Х wave forming is expected. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
4. USD/JPY
For survey wave analysis for this currency refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, November, 2005. Refer to Figure 7 for the draft of wave analysis for this currency on 480M chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0511/051128073639.gif
Figure 7 . Wave analysis on 480M chart.
Possible wave analysis is shown in Figure 7. The wave of the A impulse is supposed to complete its forming.
In the mid-term perspective the А impulse completion is expected to be confirmed and the B correction is expected to begin. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 8.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0511/051128073721.gif
Figure 8 . Wave analysis on 120M chart.
Possible wave analysis is shown in Figure 8. The wave is supposed to be forming with extension in the first (i) wave. If this supposition is correct, the (v) wave should be shorter than the (iii) wave with completion below 120.90.
In the short-term plan completion of the impulse is expected to be confirmed and downward correction may begin. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
Reference
* …“Imaginary Skewer”...
* MONTHLY Wave Analysis, November, 2005
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comNovember, 28, 2005The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
Note
[*]Once the opposite to the trend edge is tested any impulse or zigzag of any size may be considered to be completed. The inner wave marking of such a movement is of conventional character.[*]The error of the trend reversal points defining with the help of impulse method is about +/- 1..4 time units. Date on the weekly chart is the last day of the current week.[*]Often support and resistance levels, mentioned in the reports, are remote from the current price. In this case confirming or denying signals may be delayed. That is why in addition to the critical levels analysis inner structure analysis of the waves, moving in the same direction, should be used.[*]It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show the probable price movements. This report is subject to change and reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release.[*]Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides.[*]Survey wave analysis, alternative variants and possible schematic price movements are given in:[*]…“Imaginary Skewer”...[*]MONTHLY Wave Analysis, November, 2005
1. USD/CHF
For survey wave analysis for this currency refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, November, 2005. Refer to Figure 1 for the draft of wave analysis for this currency on 480M chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0511/051129073126.gif
Figure 1. Wave analysis on 480M chart.
The Х wave may assume the shape of a simple (or double) zigzag with completion in the mid of December at 1.27 . The nearest alternative scenario is shown in the upper part of the chart.
In the mid-term plan the Х wave is expected to keep forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 2.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0511/051129073209.gif
Figure 2. Wave analysis on 120M chart.
Possible wave analysis is shown in Figure 2. The of X wave is forming. It may assume the shape of an impulse or diagonal triangle.
In the short-term plan the wave is expected to keep forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
2. EUR/USD
The above information about CHF is the mirror image of that one about EUR. For survey wave analysis for this currency refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, November, 2005. Refer to Figure 3 for the draft of wave analysis for this currency on 480M chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0511/051129073251.gif
Figure 3. Wave analysis on 480M chart.
The Х wave may assume the shape of a simple (or double) zigzag with completion in the mid of December at 1.22. The nearest alternative variant is shown in the lower part of the chart.
In the mid-term plan the Х wave is expected to keep forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 4.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0511/051129073338.gif
Figure 4 . Wave analysis on 120M chart.
Possible wave analysis is shown in Figure 4. The of X wave is forming. It may assume the shape of an impulse or diagonal triangle.
In the short-term plan the wave is expected to keep forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
3. GBP/USD
For survey wave analysis for this currency refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, November, 2005. Refer to Figure 5 for the draft of wave analysis for this currency on 480M chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0511/051129073423.gif
Figure 5 . Wave analysis on 480M chart.
Possible wave analysis is shown in Figure 5. The W zigzag is supposed to be completed. The Хwave is forming, it may assume the shape of a simple (or double/triple) zigzag with completion in the mid of December at 1.78. The nearest alternative variant is shown in the lower part of the chart.
In the mid-term plan the Х wave is expected to keep forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 6.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0511/051129073516.gif
Figure 6. Wave analysis on 120M chart.
Possible wave analysis is shown in Figure 6. The X wave is forming, it may assume the shape of a simple (or double/triple) zigzag.
In the short-term plan the Х wave is expected to keep forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
4. USD/JPY
For survey wave analysis for this currency refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, November, 2005. Refer to Figure 7 for the draft of wave analysis for this currency on 480M chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0511/051129073600.gif
Figure 7 . Wave analysis on 480M chart.
Possible wave analysis is shown in Figure 7. The A of (Z) impulse is supposed to be completed. It will be confirmed by price fixing below 118.00. The В wave is forming, it may assume the shape of a simple (or double/triple) zigzag with completion in the mid of December at 115.
In the mid-term perspective the А impulse completion is expected to be confirmed and the B correction wave is expected to keep forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 8.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0511/051129073643.gif
Figure 8 . Wave analysis on 120M chart.
Possible wave analysis is shown in Figure 8. The В wave keeps forming, it may assume the shape of a simple (or double/triple) zigzag.
In the short-term plan completion of the А impulse is expected to be confirmed and downward correction is expected to continue. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
Reference
* …“Imaginary Skewer”...
* MONTHLY Wave Analysis, November, 2005
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comNovember, 29, 2005The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd
Note
[*]Once the opposite to the trend edge is tested any impulse or zigzag of any size may be considered to be completed. The inner wave marking of such a movement is of conventional character.[*]The error of the trend reversal points defining with the help of impulse method is about +/- 1..4 time units. Date on the weekly chart is the last day of the current week.[*]Often support and resistance levels, mentioned in the reports, are remote from the current price. In this case confirming or denying signals may be delayed. That is why in addition to the critical levels analysis inner structure analysis of the waves, moving in the same direction, should be used.[*]It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show the probable price movements. This report is subject to change and reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release.[*]Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides.[*]Survey wave analysis, alternative variants and possible schematic price movements are given in:[*]…“Imaginary Skewer”... [*]MONTHLY Wave Analysis, November, 2005
1. USD/CHF
For survey wave analysis for this currency refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, November, 2005. Refer to Figure 1 for the draft of wave analysis for this currency on 480M chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0511/051130080846.gif
Figure 1. Wave analysis on 480M chart.
The Х wave may assume the shape of a simple (or double) zigzag with completion in the mid of December at 1.27 . The nearest alternative scenario is shown in the upper part of the chart.
In the mid-term plan the Х wave is expected to keep forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 2.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0511/051130080941.gif
Figure 2. Wave analysis on 120M chart.
Possible wave analysis is shown in Figure 2. The of X wave is forming. It may assume the shape of an impulse or diagonal triangle.
In the short-term plan the wave is expected to keep forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
2. EUR/USD
The above information about CHF is the mirror image of that one about EUR. For survey wave analysis for this currency refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, November, 2005. Refer to Figure 3 for the draft of wave analysis for this currency on 480M chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0511/051130081023.gif
Figure 3. Wave analysis on 480M chart.
The Х wave may assume the shape of a simple (or double) zigzag with completion in the mid of December at 1.22. The nearest alternative variant is shown in the lower part of the chart.
In the mid-term plan the Х wave is expected to keep forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 4.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0511/051130081110.gif
Figure 4 . Wave analysis on 120M chart.
Possible wave analysis is shown in Figure 4. The of X wave is forming. It may assume the shape of an impulse or diagonal triangle.
In the short-term plan the wave is expected to keep forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
3. GBP/USD
For survey wave analysis for this currency refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, November, 2005. Refer to Figure 5 for the draft of wave analysis for this currency on 480M chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0511/051130081156.gif
Figure 5 . Wave analysis on 480M chart.
Possible wave analysis is shown in Figure 5. The W zigzag is supposed to be completed. The Хwave is forming, it may assume the shape of a simple (or double/triple) zigzag with completion in the mid of December at 1.78. The nearest alternative variant is shown in the lower part of the chart.
In the mid-term plan the Х wave is expected to keep forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 6.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0511/051130081236.gif
Figure 6. Wave analysis on 120M chart.
Possible wave analysis is shown in Figure 6. The X wave is forming, it may assume the shape of a simple (or double/triple) zigzag.
In the short-term plan the Х wave is expected to keep forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
4. USD/JPY
For survey wave analysis for this currency refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, November, 2005. Refer to Figure 7 for the draft of wave analysis for this currency on 480M chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0511/051130081316.gif
Figure 7 . Wave analysis on 480M chart.
Possible wave analysis is shown in Figure 7. The A of (Z) impulse is supposed to be completed. It will be confirmed by price fixing below 118.00. The В wave is forming, it may assume the shape of a simple (or double/triple) zigzag with completion in the mid of December at 115.
In the mid-term perspective the А impulse completion is expected to be confirmed and the B correction wave is expected to keep forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 8.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0511/051130081357.gif
Figure 8 . Wave analysis on 120M chart.
Possible wave analysis is shown in Figure 8. The В wave keeps forming, it may assume the shape of a simple (or double/triple) zigzag.
In the short-term plan completion of the А impulse is expected to be confirmed and downward or side correction is expected to continue. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
Reference
* …“Imaginary Skewer”...
* MONTHLY Wave Analysis, November, 2005
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comNovember, 30, 2005The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd
Note
[*]Once the opposite to the trend edge is tested any impulse or zigzag of any size may be considered to be completed. The inner wave marking of such a movement is of conventional character.[*]The error of the trend reversal points defining with the help of impulse method is about +/- 1..4 time units. Date on the weekly chart is the last day of the current week.[*]Often support and resistance levels, mentioned in the reports, are remote from the current price. In this case confirming or denying signals may be delayed. That is why in addition to the critical levels analysis inner structure analysis of the waves, moving in the same direction, should be used.[*]It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show the probable price movements. This report is subject to change and reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release.[*]Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides.[*]Survey wave analysis, alternative variants and possible schematic price movements are given in:[*]…“Imaginary Skewer”... [*]MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005
1. USD/CHF
For survey wave analysis for this currency refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005. Refer to Figure 1 for the draft of wave analysis for this currency on 480M chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0512/051201072447.gif
Figure 1. Wave analysis on 480M chart.
Wave Х may assume the shape of a simple (or double) zigzag with completion in the middle of December at 1.27. For this downward support testing at 1.3000-1.3050 is required (refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005). The nearest alternative variant is shown in the upper part of the chart.
In the mid-term plan wave Х is expected to keep forming. Price behavior is expected become clearer. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 2.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0512/051201072531.gif
Figure 2. Wave analysis on 120M chart.
Possible wave analysis is shown in Figure 2. Wave of X is forming. It may assume the shape of an impulse or diagonal triangle.
In the short-term plan wave is expected to keep forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
2. EUR/USD
The above information about CHF is the mirror image of that one about EUR. For survey wave analysis for this currency refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005. Refer to Figure 3 for the draft of wave analysis for this currency on 480M chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0512/051201072617.gif
Figure 3. Wave analysis on 480M chart.
Wave Х may assume the shape of a simple (or double) zigzag with completion in the mid of December at 1.22. For this upward support testing at 1.1850-1.1900 is required (refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005).The nearest alternative variant is shown in the lower part of the chart.
In the mid-term plan wave Х is expected to keep forming. Price behavior is expected to become clearer. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 4.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0512/051201072702.gif
Figure 4 . Wave analysis on 120M chart.
Possible wave analysis is shown in Figure 4. Wave of X is forming. It may assume the shape of an impulse or diagonal triangle.
In the short-term plan wave is expected to keep forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
3. GBP/USD
For survey wave analysis for this currency refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005. Refer to Figure 5 for the draft of wave analysis for this currency on 480M chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0512/051201072752.gif
Figure 5 . Wave analysis on 480M chart.
Possible wave analysis is shown in Figure 5. Zigzag W is supposed to be completed. Wave Хis forming, it may assume the shape of a simple (or double/triple) zigzag with completion in the mid of December at 1.78. For it upward support level testing at 1.7300-1.7350 is required (refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005. The nearest alternative variant is shown in the lower part of the chart.
In the mid-term plan the Х wave is expected to keep forming. Price behavior is expected to become clearer. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 6.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0512/051201072836.gif
Figure 6. Wave analysis on 120M chart.
Possible wave analysis is shown in Figure 6. Wave X is forming, it may assume the shape of a simple (or double/triple) zigzag.
In the short-term plan wave Х is expected to keep forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
4. USD/JPY
For survey wave analysis for this currency refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005. Refer to Figure 7 for the draft of wave analysis for this currency on 480M chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0512/051201072952.gif
Figure 7 . Wave analysis on 480M chart.
Possible wave analysis is shown in Figure 7. Impulse A of (Z) is supposed to be completed. It will be confirmed by price fixing below 118.00. Wave В is forming, it may assume the shape of a simple (or double/triple) zigzag with completion in the mid of December at 115.
In the mid-term perspective impulse А completion is expected to be confirmed and corrective wave B is expected to keep forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 8.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0512/051201073030.gif
Figure 8 . Wave analysis on 120M chart.
Possible wave analysis is shown in Figure 8. Wave В keeps forming, it may assume the shape of a simple (or double/triple) zigzag.
In the short-term plan completion of impulse А is expected to be confirmed and downward or sideways correction is expected to continue. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
Reference
* …“Imaginary Skewer”...
* MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comDecember, 1, 2005The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd
Introduction
On the whole forecasts are still the same. But price is moving in the bifurcation area, the main and alternative variants are still valid. It takes more time than expected for the price behavior to become clearer.
Note
[*]Once the opposite to the trend edge is tested any impulse or zigzag of any size may be considered to be completed. The inner wave marking of such a movement is of conventional character.[*]The error of the trend reversal points defining with the help of impulse method is about +/- 1..4 time units. Date on the weekly chart is the last day of the current week.[*]Often support and resistance levels, mentioned in the reports, are remote from the current price. In this case confirming or denying signals may be delayed. That is why in addition to the critical levels analysis inner structure analysis of the waves, moving in the same direction, should be used.[*]It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show the probable price movements. This report is subject to change and reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release.[*]Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides.[*]Survey wave analysis, alternative variants and possible schematic price movements are given in:[*]…“Imaginary Skewer”... [*]MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005
1. USD/CHF
For survey wave analysis for this currency refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005. Refer to Figure 1 for the draft of wave analysis for this currency on 480M chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0512/051202093054.gif
Figure 1. Wave analysis on 480M chart.
Wave Х may assume the shape of a simple (or double) zigzag with completion in the middle of December at 1.27. For this downward support testing at 1.3000-1.3050 is required (refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005). The nearest alternative variant (refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005) is shown in the upper part of the chart.
In the mid-term plan wave Х is expected to keep forming. Price behavior is expected become clearer. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
2. EUR/USD
The above information about CHF is the mirror image of that one about EUR. For survey wave analysis for this currency refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005. Refer to Figure 2 for the draft of wave analysis for this currency on 480M chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0512/051202093135.gif
Figure 2. Wave analysis on 480M chart.
Wave Х may assume the shape of a simple (or double) zigzag with completion in the mid of December at 1.22. For this upward support testing at 1.1850-1.1900 is required (refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005).The nearest alternative variant (refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005) is shown in the lower part of the chart.
In the mid-term plan wave Х is expected to keep forming. Price behavior is expected to become clearer. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
3. GBP/USD
For survey wave analysis for this currency refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005. Refer to Figure 3 for the draft of wave analysis for this currency on 480M chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0512/051202093217.gif
Figure 3. Wave analysis on 480M chart.
Possible wave analysis is shown in Figure 3. Zigzag W is supposed to be completed. Wave Хis forming, it may assume the shape of a simple (or double/triple) zigzag with completion in the mid of December at 1.78. For it upward support level testing at 1.7300-1.7350 is required (refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005. The nearest alternative variant (refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005) is shown in the lower part of the chart.
In the mid-term plan wave Х is expected to keep forming. Price behavior is expected to become clearer. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
4. USD/JPY
For survey wave analysis for this currency refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005. Refer to Figure 4 for the draft of wave analysis for this currency on 480M chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0512/051202093314.gif
Figure 4 . Wave analysis on 480M chart.
Uptrend continues. Judging by new wave pattern of the last upward movement it may be assumed that double zigzag is forming. In this case it may be supposed that the top of wave A was formed earlier, and forming wave B is assuming the shape of expanded flat.
In the mid-term perspective downward wave (c) is expected to begin. Price behavior is expected to become clearer. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
Reference
* …“Imaginary Skewer”...
* MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comDecember, 2, 2005The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
Note
[*]Once the opposite to the trend edge is tested any impulse or zigzag of any size may be considered to be completed. The inner wave marking of such a movement is of conventional character.[*]The error of the trend reversal points defining with the help of impulse method is about +/- 1..4 time units. Date on the weekly chart is the last day of the current week.[*]Often support and resistance levels, mentioned in the reports, are remote from the current price. In this case confirming or denying signals may be delayed. That is why in addition to the critical levels analysis inner structure analysis of the waves, moving in the same direction, should be used.[*]It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show the probable price movements. This report is subject to change and reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release.[*]Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides.[*]Survey wave analysis, alternative variants and possible schematic price movements are given in:[*]…“Imaginary Skewer”... [*]MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005
1. USD/CHF
For survey wave analysis for this currency refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005. Refer to Figure 1 for the draft of wave analysis for this currency on 480M chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0512/051205091805.gif
Figure 1. Wave analysis on 480M chart.
Wave Х may assume the shape of a simple (or double) zigzag with completion in the middle of December at 1.27. For this downward support testing at 1.3000-1.3050 is required (refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005). The nearest alternative variant (refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005) is shown in the upper part of the chart.
In the mid-term plan wave Х is expected to keep forming. Price behavior is expected become clearer. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 2.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0512/051205091848.gif
Figure 2. Wave analysis on 120M chart.
Renewed wave analysis is shown in Figure 2. Wave is assuming the shape of expanded flat, where wave (c)of is more likely to be a diagonal triangle than an impulse.
In the short-term plan wave completion is expected to be confirmed, wave is expected to start forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
2. EUR/USD
The above information about CHF is the mirror image of that one about EUR. For survey wave analysis for this currency refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005. Refer to Figure 3 for the draft of wave analysis for this currency on 480M chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0512/051205091929.gif
Figure 3. Wave analysis on 480M chart.
Wave Х may assume the shape of a simple (or double) zigzag with completion in the mid of December at 1.22. For this upward support testing at 1.1850-1.1900 is required (refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005).The nearest alternative variant (refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005) is shown in the lower part of the chart.
In the mid-term plan wave Х is expected to keep forming. Price behavior is expected to become clearer. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 4.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0512/051205092007.gif
Figure 4 . Wave analysis on 120M chart.
Renewed wave analysis is shown in Figure 4. Wave is assuming the shape of expanded flat, where wave (c)of is more likely to be a diagonal triangle than an impulse.
In the short-term plan wave completion is expected to be confirmed, wave is expected to start forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
3. GBP/USD
For survey wave analysis for this currency refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005. Refer to Figure 5 for the draft of wave analysis for this currency on 480M chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0512/051205092059.gif
Figure 5 . Wave analysis on 480M chart.
Possible wave analysis is shown in Figure 5. Zigzag W is supposed to be completed. Wave Хis forming, it may assume the shape of a simple (or double/triple) zigzag with completion in the mid of December at 1.78. For it upward support level testing at 1.7300-1.7350 is required (refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005. The nearest alternative variant (refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005) is shown in the lower part of the chart.
In the mid-term plan wave Х is expected to keep forming. Price behavior is expected to become clearer. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 6.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0512/051205092145.gif
Figure 6. Wave analysis on 120M chart.
Renewed wave analysis is shown in Figure 6. Wave may have assumed the shape of the “wedge” with extension in the first wave. If the supposition is correct, after a short retracement ( wave), upward wave will start forming.
In the short-term plan wave is expected to keep forming. Price behavior is expected to become clearer. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
4. USD/JPY
For survey wave analysis for this currency refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005. Refer to Figure 7 for the draft of wave analysis for this currency on 480M chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0512/051205092226.gif
Figure 7 . Wave analysis on 480M chart.
Renewed wave analysis is shown in Figure 7. The price is in uptrend. Prices may reverse at 122.00.
In the mid-term perspective impulse А completion is expected to be confirmed. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
Reference
* …“Imaginary Skewer”...
* MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comDecember, 5, 2005The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
Note
[*]Once the opposite to the trend edge is tested any impulse or zigzag of any size may be considered to be completed. The inner wave marking of such a movement is of conventional character.[*]The error of the trend reversal points defining with the help of impulse method is about +/- 1..4 time units. Date on the weekly chart is the last day of the current week.[*]Often support and resistance levels, mentioned in the reports, are remote from the current price. In this case confirming or denying signals may be delayed. That is why in addition to the critical levels analysis inner structure analysis of the waves, moving in the same direction, should be used.[*]It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show the probable price movements. This report is subject to change and reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release.[*]Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides.[*]Survey wave analysis, alternative variants and possible schematic price movements are given in:[*]…“Imaginary Skewer”... [*]MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005
1. USD/CHF
For survey wave analysis for this currency refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005. Refer to Figure 1 for the draft of wave analysis for this currency on 480M chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0512/051206090007.gif
Figure 1. Wave analysis on 480M chart.
Wave Х may assume the shape of a simple (or double) zigzag with completion in the middle of December at 1.27. For this downward support testing at 1.3000-1.3050 is required (refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005). The nearest alternative variant (refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005) is shown in the upper part of the chart.
In the mid-term plan wave Х is expected to keep forming. Price behavior is expected become clearer. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 2.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0512/051206090055.gif
Figure 2. Wave analysis on 120M chart.
Possible wave analysis is shown in Figure 2. Wave assumed the shape of expanded flat. Final impulse is supposed to be forming.
In the short-term plan wave is expected to keep forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
2. EUR/USD
The above information about CHF is the mirror image of that one about EUR. For survey wave analysis for this currency refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005. Refer to Figure 3 for the draft of wave analysis for this currency on 480M chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0512/051206090141.gif
Figure 3. Wave analysis on 480M chart.
Wave Х may assume the shape of a simple (or double) zigzag with completion in the mid of December at 1.22. For this upward support testing at 1.1850-1.1900 is required (refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005).The nearest alternative variant (refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005) is shown in the lower part of the chart.
In the mid-term plan wave Х is expected to keep forming. Price behavior is expected to become clearer. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 4.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0512/051206090227.gif
Figure 4 . Wave analysis on 120M chart.
Possible wave analysis is shown in Figure 4. Wave assumed the shape of expanded flat. Final impulse is supposed to be forming.
In the short-term plan wave is expected to keep forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
3. GBP/USD
For survey wave analysis for this currency refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005. Refer to Figure 5 for the draft of wave analysis for this currency on 480M chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0512/051206090315.gif
Figure 5 . Wave analysis on 480M chart.
Possible wave analysis is shown in Figure 5. Wave Хis forming, it may assume the shape of a simple (or double/triple) zigzag with completion in the mid of December at 1.78. For it upward support level testing at 1.7300-1.7350 is required (refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005. The nearest alternative variant (refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005) is shown in the lower part of the chart.
In the mid-term plan wave Х is expected to keep forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 6.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0512/051206090411.gif
Figure 6. Wave analysis on 120M chart.
Possible wave analysis is shown in Figure 6. Wave may have assumed the shape of the wedge with extension in the first wave. If this supposition is correct final wave is forming now.
In the short-term plan wave [с] is expected to keep forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
4. USD/JPY
For survey wave analysis for this currency refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005. Refer to Figure 7 for the draft of wave analysis for this currency on 480M chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0512/051206090454.gif
Figure 7 . Wave analysis on 480M chart.
Possible wave analysis is shown in Figure 7.
In the mid-term perspective impulse А completion is expected to be confirmed. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 8.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0512/051206090540.gif
Figure 8 . Wave analysis on 120M chart.
Possible wave analysis is shown in Figure 8. Wave В keeps forming, it may assume the shape of a simple (or double/triple) zigzag.
In the short-term plan completion of impulse А is expected to be confirmed and downward or sideways correction is expected to continue. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
Reference
* …“Imaginary Skewer”...
* MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comDecember, 6, 2005The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd
Note
[*]Once the opposite to the trend edge (base line or trend line) is tested any impulse or zigzag of any size may be considered to be completed. The inner wave counting of such a movement is of conventional character.[*]The error of the trend reversal points defining with the help of impulse method is about +/- 1..4 time units. Date on the weekly chart is the last day of the current week.[*]Often support and resistance levels, mentioned in the reports, are remote from the current price. In this case confirming or denying signals may be delayed. That is why in addition to the critical levels analysis inner structure analysis of the waves, moving in the same direction, should be used.[*]It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show the probable price movements. This report is subject to change and reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release.[*]Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides.[*]Survey wave counting, alternative variants and possible schematic price movements are given in:* …“Imaginary Skewer”... * MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005
1. USD/CHF
For survey wave counting of this currency refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft for this currency on 480M chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0512/051207085505.gif
Figure 1. Wave counting on 480M chart.
Wave Х may assume the shape of a simple (or double) zigzag with completion in the middle of December at 1.27. For this downward support testing at 1.3000-1.3050 is required (refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005). The nearest alternative variant (refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005) is shown in the upper part of the chart.
In the mid-term plan wave Х is expected to keep forming. Price behavior is expected become clearer. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 2.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0512/051207085557.gif
Figure 2. Wave counting on 120M chart.
Possible wave counting is shown in Figure 2. Wave assumed the shape of expanded flat. Final impulse is supposed to be forming.
In the short-term plan wave is expected to keep forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
2. EUR/USD
The above information about CHF is the mirror image of that one about EUR. For survey wave counting of this currency refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the 480M chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0512/051207085644.gif
Figure 3. Wave counting on 480M chart.
Wave Х may assume the shape of a simple (or double) zigzag with completion in the mid of December at 1.22. For this upward support testing at 1.1850-1.1900 is required (refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005).The nearest alternative variant (refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005) is shown in the lower part of the chart.
In the mid-term plan wave Х is expected to keep forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 4.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0512/051207085723.gif
Figure 4 . Wave counting on 120M chart.
Possible wave counting is shown in Figure 4. Wave assumed the shape of expanded flat. Final impulse is supposed to be forming.
In the short-term plan wave is expected to keep forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
3. GBP/USD
For survey wave counting of this currency refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the 480M chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0512/051207085809.gif
Figure 5 . Wave counting on 480M chart.
Possible wave counting is shown in Figure 5. Wave Хis supposed to be forming, it may assume the shape of a simple (or double) zigzag with completion in the mid of December at 1.78. For it price fixing above support at 1.7300-1.7350 is required (refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005. The nearest alternative variant (refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005) is shown in the lower part of the chart.
In the mid-term plan wave Х is expected to keep forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 6.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0512/051207085849.gif
Figure 6. Wave counting on 120M chart.
Possible wave counting is shown in Figure 6. Wave may have assumed the shape of the “wedge” with extension in the first wave. If the supposition is correct, final wave is forming.
In the short-term plan wave is expected to keep forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
4. USD/JPY
For survey wave counting of this currency refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the 480M chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0512/051207085936.gif
Figure 7 . Wave counting on 480M chart.
Possible wave counting is shown in Figure 7. Completion of wave A is not confirmed yet. May be its final waves are not formed yet.
In the mid-term perspective impulse А completion is expected to be confirmed. Price behavior is expected to become clearer. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 8.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0512/051207090016.gif
Figure 8 . Wave counting on 120M chart.
Possible wave counting is shown in Figure 8. Formed downtrend is of corrective rather than impulse character.
In the short-term plan impulse A completion is supposed to be confirmed. Price behavior is expected to become clearer. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
Reference
[*]…"Imaginary Skewer”... [*]New Wave Pattern and New Classification of Extended Corrections in the FOREX Market.[*]MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comDecember, 7, 2005The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
Note
[*]Once the opposite to the trend edge (base line or trend line) is tested any impulse or zigzag of any size may be considered to be completed. The inner wave counting of such a movement is of conventional character.[*]The error of the trend reversal points defining with the help of impulse method is about +/- 1..4 time units. Date on the weekly chart is the last day of the current week.[*]Often support and resistance levels, mentioned in the reports, are remote from the current price. In this case confirming or denying signals may be delayed. That is why in addition to the critical levels analysis inner structure analysis of the waves, moving in the same direction, should be used.[*]It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show the probable price movements. This report is subject to change and reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release.[*]Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides.[*]Survey wave counting, alternative variants and possible schematic price movements are given in:* …“Imaginary Skewer”... * MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005
1. USD/CHF
For CHF survey wave counting refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft for this currency on 480M chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0512/051208093631.gif
Figure 1. Wave counting on 480M chart.
Wave Х may assume the shape of a simple (or double) zigzag with completion in the middle of December at 1.27. For this downward support testing at 1.3000-1.3050 is required (refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005). The nearest alternative variant (refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005) is shown in the upper part of the chart.
In the mid-term plan wave Х is expected to keep forming. Price behavior is expected become clearer. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 2.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0512/051208093719.gif
Figure 2. Wave counting on 120M chart.
Possible wave counting is shown in Figure 2. Wave assumed the shape of expanded flat. Final impulse (or diagonal triangle) is supposed to be forming.
In the short-term plan wave is expected to keep forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
2. EUR/USD
The above information about CHF is the mirror image of that one about EUR. For EUR survey wave counting refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the 480M chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0512/051208093805.gif
Figure 3. Wave counting on 480M chart.
Wave Х may assume the shape of a simple (or double) zigzag with completion in the mid of December at 1.22. For this upward support testing at 1.1850-1.1900 is required (refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005).The nearest alternative variant (refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005) is shown in the lower part of the chart.
In the mid-term plan wave Х is expected to keep forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 4.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0512/051208093852.gif
Figure 4 . Wave counting on 120M chart.
Possible wave counting is shown in Figure 4. Wave assumed the shape of expanded flat. Final impulse (or diagonal triangle) is supposed to be forming.
In the short-term plan wave is expected to keep forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
3. GBP/USD
For survey wave counting of this currency refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the 480M chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0512/051208093938.gif
Figure 5 . Wave counting on 480M chart.
Possible wave counting is shown in Figure 5. Wave Хis supposed to be forming, it may assume the shape of a simple (or double) zigzag with completion in the mid of December at 1.78. For it price fixing above support at 1.7300-1.7350 is required (refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005. The nearest alternative variant (refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005) is shown in the lower part of the chart.
In the mid-term plan wave Х is expected to keep forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 6.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0512/051208094018.gif
Figure 6. Wave counting on 120M chart.
Renewed wave counting is shown in Figure 6. Wave may have assumed the shape of the “wedge” with extension in the first wave. If the supposition is correct, wave forming is almost completed.
In the short-term plan wave is expected to start forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
4. USD/JPY
For survey wave counting of this currency refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the 480M chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0512/051208094059.gif
Figure 7 . Wave counting on 480M chart.
Possible wave counting is shown in Figure 7. Completion of wave A is not confirmed yet. Final price upward thrust is supposed to be required to complete the current impulse.
In the mid-term perspective impulse А completion is expected to be confirmed. Price behavior is expected to become clearer. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 8.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0512/051208094143.gif
Figure 8 . Wave counting on 120M chart.
Possible wave counting is shown in Figure 8. Extended correction (wave (iv)) assumed quite horizontal shape and the final thrust may reach, at least, 121.50.
In the short-term plan impulse A completion is supposed to be confirmed. Price behavior is expected to become clearer. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
Reference
[*][*]New Wave Pattern and New Classification of Extended Corrections in the FOREX Market.[*]MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comDecember, 8, 2005The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
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