Nov 4, 2008 4:32am
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Evil Speculator
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EURUSD, H4
Hi guys,
Good thoughts you got there Blue bottle and FXoffshore. Looking at charts only (and ignoring elections which I know could set a new trend once they are done) it looks like we may have another high.
In my eyes the last leg up is impulsive and if it is true then we might have just reached the bottom for the 3-wave correction.
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 4, 2008 12:08pm
fontu
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Quote:
Originally Posted by soso http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Hi guys,
Good thoughts you got there Blue bottle and FXoffshore. Looking at charts only (and ignoring elections which I know could set a new trend once they are done) it looks like we may have another high.
In my eyes the last leg up is impulsive and if it is true then we might have just reached the bottom for the 3-wave correction.
I think it the best explanation of the market situation , thanks soso . Hope follow the market prices & if it the situation it will be similar in most pairs . lets see what happen .
fontu
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#755
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 4, 2008 5:06pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fontu http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
I think it the best explanation of the market situation , thanks soso . Hope follow the market prices & if it the situation it will be similar in most pairs . lets see what happen .
fontu
Well it looks like strength of the move makes it clearly an impulsive one so probabilities are still for the original assumption meaning that we can expecy a new high, most probabily unfolded as a 5-wave move - the move up today being wave 1.
So I would look for a long setup again once the price retraces more at least 50% of today's move and thus creating the wave 2.
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#756
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 4, 2008 5:21pm
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif USDJPY, H4
This is what I am watching lately...
P.S. FXoffshore and other experienced EW people what do you think about .786? It appeared yet again today, I never put much emphasis on it but seeing how price reacts lately near it I consider to upgrade its strengh in the future.
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#757
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 4, 2008 5:46pm
SunTrader http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
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Quote:
Originally Posted by soso http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Well it looks like strength of the move makes it clearly an impulsive one so probabilities are still for the original assumption meaning that we can expecy a new high, most probabily unfolded as a 5-wave move - the move up today being wave 1.
So I would look for a long setup again once the price retraces more at least 50% of today's move and thus creating the wave 2.
Clearly it was a big move today but put a ADX indicator on your chart and you'll see that trend strength is flat. IMO even though it appears to be impulsive it is really a correction or ABC off the lows from 10/28/08. I'll change opinion if it closes above (on 4h chart) 1.3125 area and continues higher.
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#758
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doji
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SunTrader http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Clearly it was a big move today but put a ADX indicator on your chart and you'll see that trend strength is flat. IMO even though it appears to be impulsive it is really a correction or ABC off the lows from 10/28/08. I'll change opinion if it closes above (on 4h chart) 1.3125 area and continues higher.
I am also inclined to think the same way. My view is that Wave B is still in progress and we will still see a down-move before price moves up again for Wave C.
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#759
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 5, 2008 1:45am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar47291_4.gifFXoffshore
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Fibo .786
.786 is common in triangles to have the right slope. It is more useful to me than .50, which is not a Fibo number. It can move up to about .80 and down several points without much concern. Keep in mind that wave structure is critically important, while fibo ratios are guidelines for tests and targets that work better on expansion than on retracement.
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#760
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 5, 2008 2:09am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SunTrader http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Clearly it was a big move today but put a ADX indicator on your chart and you'll see that trend strength is flat. IMO even though it appears to be impulsive it is really a correction or ABC off the lows from 10/28/08. I'll change opinion if it closes above (on 4h chart) 1.3125 area and continues higher.
I am considering this whole move up a correction. And we are in the 3rd wave of the correction which I expect it to be a 5 wave move thus impulsive. Maybe I should have been more clear of what impulses I was talking.
Later edit: Actually I am not sure if it is a larger correction or a short one (or the start of new long term trend up, yes this too), that is the reason it is noted with "i" rather than "1" or "a".
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Last edited by soso, Nov 5, 2008 2:20am
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#761
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 5, 2008 2:23am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FXoffshore http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
.786 is common in triangles to have the right slope. It is more useful to me than .50, which is not a Fibo number. It can move up to about .80 and down several points without much concern. Keep in mind that wave structure is critically important, while fibo ratios are guidelines for tests and targets that work better on expansion than on retracement.
Thanks FXoffshore. Regarding .50, it is on my top of the list along with .62, I've seen too many .50 levels hold the price if not trully reverse it to ignore it. Like right now on EURUSD which stopped at .50. I guess in the end is a matter of taste and experience.
Will keep an eye for .786 for a while from now on...
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#762
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 5, 2008 3:21am
fontu
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Though there is a possibilities as soso stated but think we are still in big 4 wave correction as see in H4 & D1 and lower tf now in subwave b of C correction & may go up 1.3295( tip of A) or even up to finish the correction & then to start down the big 5th wave down .
fontu
Last edited by fontu, Nov 5, 2008 3:40am
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#763
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 5, 2008 3:30am
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Possible fontu, to tell you the truth I dont have any opinion for the whole move down on Euro since the July top. I can't count a clear 5-wave move down so for now I am ignoring the longer term count. Would love to see yours and other people longer term counts...
What matters most is the timeframe you're trading, if you have a good EW picture on that timeframe then is all good.
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#764
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 5, 2008 3:57am
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD, H4
This is what I am looking for.
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Nov 5, 2008 9:57am
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif 4H chart count
fxoffshore, fontu, soso
this is my count.
I think a triangle is forming as wave 4 of (3 or C), counting from the July top.
cheers.
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 5, 2008 11:33am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar15771_1.gifunicorn7411
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif update on triangle wave 4
my count (so far) on wave four is attached.
your comments on the count are welcome.
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#768
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 5, 2008 12:28pm
fontu
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Quote:
Originally Posted by unicorn7411 http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
fxoffshore, fontu, soso
this is my count.
I think a triangle is forming as wave 4 of (3 or C), counting from the July top.
cheers.
Very good counts unicorn , precise & clean . yes all the trouble with this 4 corrective wave forming the diagonal triangle & waiting for the break . as it will be a great fall it took lots of time & create much confusions /complexieties ( more perhaps till obama not down it??) too . I like your charts . I printed it for reference .
fontu
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#769
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 5, 2008 1:06pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar47291_4.gifFXoffshore
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Excellent chart counts Unicorn. Clean and detailed. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/thumbsup.gif
This 4th wave could end with a move higher above 1.33 to complete a flat, or it can move down to continue the triangle wave D. It is good practice to consider the ALT count and define what would eliminate one or the other. Wave 4 are hard to call as complete in real time, personally I give them a lot of leeway to prove direction, or use small lots and wide stops - knowing the wave 5 is coming sometime.
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#770
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 5, 2008 2:13pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar15771_1.gifunicorn7411
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif wave 4 alternate counts
fontu, fxOffshore, thank you.http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
I added the alternate count (flat).
Length(C) = Length(A) leads to 1.3460, and wave 4 goes above the bottom of wave 1 (1.3448) by 12 pips.
It better not enter within the price range of wave 1.
The top of C when Length(C) = 78.6% * Length(A) is at 1.3256
cheers.
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#771
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 5, 2008 5:11pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
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Hi all,
Usdjpy chart.
Looks good for short entry..
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#772
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 5, 2008 5:16pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
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Usdcad chart.
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#773
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 6, 2008 3:20am
livingFX
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Hello to everybody! now I'm learning a lot Forex-theory but don't understand this indicator...http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/sad.gif can anyone explain it to me? thankss
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#774
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 6, 2008 6:39am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar15771_1.gifunicorn7411
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif It is not an indicator. It is an analysis methodology.
It is not an indicator.
It is an analysis methodology.
Google "Elliott Wave".
There is a lot of information on the net.
Be prepared to spend a lot of hours to understand all the details.
It takes perseverance to learn how to apply it.
Good Luck.
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#775
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 6, 2008 7:25am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
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EurGbp Daily chart.
I believe wave 4 is forming as triangle. Pls comment if other counts possible..
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Nov 6, 2008 7:29am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue bottle http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
EurGbp Daily chart.
I believe wave 4 is forming as triangle. Pls comment if other counts possible..
Other possible count..
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 6, 2008 4:06pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
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where this triangle gonna break?
Long side or Short side?
If its wave 4 triangle then can expect it to break downwards for wave 5..
Patience needed now..
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#778
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 6, 2008 6:15pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar15771_1.gifunicorn7411
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif eurusd triangle update.
eurusd triangle update.
so far waves A, B, C of ABCDE triangle are complete.
Price is in the process of completing wave D.
If the triangle formation for wave 4 reflects reality, then price will bounce on lower triangle line and proceed up to test top triangle line (wave E) which will correspond to the completion of wave 4.
Next wave 5 (down) begins.
Unless ABC completed a 3-3-3 "flat";
in this case, eurusd has already started wave 1 of 5 down, and will slice through the lower triangle line, OR will first bounce on the line and then proceed down.
So Blue Bottle, I think that eurusd is going down; both of these EW scenarios are bearish for the euro.
For a bullish scenario, one must be able to count 5 waves up, on both of waves A and C examined.
I have tried, but I cannot see such a count; that is the reason I post such a detailed Elliott wave count.
Please take a look and try to count 5 waves up (following the rules). I would be very interested in a bullish count, if one exists.
Let me know.
FxOffshore, fontu, what's your take?
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Last edited by unicorn7411, Nov 6, 2008 6:47pm
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#779
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http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar15771_1.gifunicorn7411
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Alternate count
Quote:
Originally Posted by unicorn7411 http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Unless ABC completed a 3-3-3 "flat";
in this case, eurusd has already started wave 1 of 5 down, and will slice through the lower triangle line, OR will first bounce on the line and then proceed down.
As a matter of fact, I do have a 5 wave count (about to complete in the area of 1.2650 ~ 1.2600).
It is not so "good looking", but it is a 5 wave count down, which means that when the lower triangle line is tested, (assuming this count is correct) the bounce will be wave 2.
For the shake of analysis, here is the chart. It is on 1000V bars (1000 contracts volume bars) on the futures contract (Globex).
Your comments and observations are welcome.
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Nov 7, 2008 3:25am
Rocroy
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My feeling is a bit same as yours. I'm not saying whether the triangle breaks on the upside or downside, but I think we'll get a complex correction. The previous corr was a simple one, maybe it is time for a more complex correction. It would mean that we will sit here, perhaps between 161 and 261 fibs quite a while. Maybe in December, when euro rate is lowered next time (?) we'll get w5.
Just my 2c, R
Quote:
Originally Posted by soso http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
I'd be careful with the triangle count. Everyone sees it and expects it to break down. If I'd have to bet on a breakout direction I would do it on the upside. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/thinking.gif
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #782
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 7, 2008 3:31am
doji
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My take on the EUR?USD pair, for what it's worth:
We're in agreement that it's a Wave 4 correction, right? I see Wave A as a 5-wave up-move; Wave B which is in progress is a triangle; and the thrust when Wave B ends will be a 5-wave upmove (Wave C) that will complete the whole corrective ABC move.
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#783
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 7, 2008 3:44am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by doji http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
My take on the EUR?USD pair, for what it's worth:
We're in agreement that it's a Wave 4 correction, right? I see Wave A as a 5-wave up-move; Wave B which is in progress is a triangle; and the thrust when Wave B ends will be a 5-wave upmove (Wave C) that will complete the whole corrective ABC move.
My same thoughs exactly. I'd rather see it like this.
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#784
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 7, 2008 3:58am
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How about Cable? The move down looks corrective to me. At this point we have A fib relationship between corrective waves and if it is on par with Euro then it should go up...
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#785
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 7, 2008 4:15am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar47447_1.gifsoso
Evil Speculator
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY, H4
Corrective move down stopped between 50%-62% retracement zone. Also in there we have a strong pivot level that hold the price. From an EW pov we have a=c. Probabilities are in favor of Bullish following in my opinion.
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#786
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 7, 2008 6:47am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar15771_1.gifunicorn7411
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif good point
soso, Rocroy, doji
Thank you for your point of view. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
doji, the count you suggest is very interesting. I will look into the 5 wave A move.
cheers.
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#787
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 8, 2008 1:20am
fontu
Senior Member
Member Since Mar 2008
661 Posts
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Thanks all for the new views as the B wave still to finish & C to up to start but I still did not changed my mind of the old counting as we are in wave 4 correction making comlexes ,may be more but ultomately to down for the wave 5,Big C up still a possibilities though it may short cut now with already the 5 th wave starts inside the narrower proximities of the triangle in eurusd & if wave 1 =wave 5 then more 1600 pips to down & similar situation in most pairs similar .
just taking possibilities .
http://www.gogetin.info/eu811.gif
ma,stoches ,Lswpr & no divergence arround suggest this movement .
fontu
Last edited by fontu, Nov 8, 2008 1:58am
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#788
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 8, 2008 10:04am
TheCable
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Member Since Mar 2007
110 Posts
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soso wave ii is rarely a triangle..I'll consider it wave B.I'm talking about the eur/usd count.
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#789
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 8, 2008 11:35am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar15771_1.gifunicorn7411
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Quote:
Originally Posted by doji http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
I see Wave A as a 5-wave up-move; Wave B which is in progress ; and the thrust when Wave B ends will be a 5-wave upmove (Wave C) that will complete the whole corrective ABC move.
doji;
I cannot have a clean 5 wave count for A;
It does not look natural; in my opinion one has to force the count to be 5 waves as opposed to a WXY;
If you have a detailed count of A please post it.
Thank you. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
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#790
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 8, 2008 3:12pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar77494_1.gifsaeidhidari
Eliot wave trader
Member Since Aug 2008
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue bottle http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Other possible count..
hi ms
small t.p
eur gbp montly
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=167392&thumb=1&d=1226175071
eur gbp 5m +garttly =1:1:c
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=167393&thumb=1&d=1226175071
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#791
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 9, 2008 2:36am
Rocroy
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How about this count - any comments? May not be very clean / nice looking, but do you find any faults in it?
R
Quote:
Originally Posted by unicorn7411 http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
doji;
I cannot have a clean 5 wave count for A;
It does not look natural; in my opinion one has to force the count to be 5 waves as opposed to a WXY;
If you have a detailed count of A please post it.
Thank you. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=167449&thumb=1&d=1226216164
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#792
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 9, 2008 5:53am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar64906_2.giftemitope
Member
Member Since Mar 2008
19 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif gu..easy easy easy.just look n u shall see
hi traders..wow..what can i say.I am really glad to find this thread..i have been dying to meet good wave traders..i mean those that are sound..in there counting..or join a party of wave traders but have really been unable to find one..till now i mean..it was like nobody trades wave..but am glad i found you guys..so i will say thanks for keeping the thread up till am here...
Now to business..ill like to start with the gbp/usd analysis....its really a tricky one..for those that are in the unknown zone..but i guess we are lucky uh..?anyway...gu is currently trading in the wave B zone for now NO DOUBT ABOUT that! as triangles are not in wave 2 but only in 4 and Bs and this definitely is not a 4 so we are left with one option B.Now here comes the tricky part..as a waver..we all know the C move is up..n i think we are all anticipating to go long..but before we get jumpy..i will like to bring our notice to this..
the first wave up wave A unfolded in a 3 wave pattern..thereby paving a way for a flat consideration...as we all know that a 3 wave move up as A precedes a 3 wave move down for B,with a new price high (in bear a new price low.)so i will like to break down these wave B into wave counting to confirm the analysis..now.
First triangles take a 3 3 3 3 3 pattern labelled abcde.now as i have indicated in my chart below we are currently in the (d) of b and i want you to remember that wave (e) is still coming..which as we all know..will undershoot the trendline..
there is actually so much to say but i hope we can all develop on this..n understand that the market..will still form a new low before..the C bull wave will begin..and with the news of usd gaining this week..i dont think it is wise to go long now..till the e wave is completed..
Another reading ..using ratio analysis in wave..also forcasts the same thing as i have also shown in my chart below..that a new low must be seen before a bulish C would be formed..my..ratio analytical targets are as follow..
wave (a)of B travelled 1092 points downward..and since wave A equals wave C using the equality rulein a normal zigzag..wave C will also travel 1092 points or more..giving the target point at 1.5100 precisely..but there could be more depending on the dow confirmations...there by confirming again that a new low will be seen.
So why not sit back and relax ..watch and wait for this low to be seen before going long...as for me.. i will start going long..on gu from this point..i mean 1.5100 with a good money management..i hope these will shead the light that we are all waiting for.We wil talk about the target point..when we are in the long position...uhmmm..
Can u imagine..even using chart patterns..we are seeing a decending triangle..a confirmation for short....and using trendline analysis...u can sell on the break of this lower trendline.......what else could you possibly want?NOW WHO SAYS THE MARKET IS CHAOTIC....pls keep piping.or watching...
for any arguments or more explanation..mail omotope00@yahoo.com (add ff)
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=167461&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1226227964
Last edited by temitope, Nov 9, 2008 6:13am
Nov 9, 2008 10:01am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar15771_1.gifunicorn7411
Member
Member Since Aug 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/1kt.gif70 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EW count of A of 4 (of 3 or C)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rocroy http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
How about this count - any comments? May not be very clean / nice looking, but do you find any faults in it?
R
Hi Rocroy;
Thanks for the count;
It is almost the same as the one I came up with.
Now, let me explain what I don't like about it:
If you pick all the waves labeled as 1 and go to the 2 min (or the 1 min) chart and examine them you will verify that they are a-b-c sequences; not clean 1-2-3-4-5 sequences.
This means that the perceived (1-2-3) sets of the assumed (1-2-3)-4-5 sequences are in effect breaking as 3-3-5 sequences i.e. as corrective a-b-c while the perceived 4-5 sequence is the following X-Y of the W-X-Y.
This points to 3-3-5 waves as W, followed by (3-3-3) X, followed by a five structure, the Y wave.
Have a look; let me know.
All observations and analysis remarks are welcome. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
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Last edited by unicorn7411, Nov 9, 2008 10:44am
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #797
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 9, 2008 11:13am
SunTrader http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Trade the reaction not the news!
Member Since Mar 2006
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue bottle http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
doji, hope it helps u..
Or use Manage Attachments - down below Smiley Emoticons - in the Additional Options box
Browse, upload etc.
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#798
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 9, 2008 11:40am
Rocroy
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Member Since Jun 2007
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Thanks for a detailed and careful analysis, I'm glad you joined the thread.
Now to your claim about first waves (on bold below). I did examine the waves on 1min chart, and it seems to me that both counts are possible. They (1. waves) may not the most elegant or clean impulses, but anyhow imo counting them as such does not violate any of the ew rules. And if this is the case, I'd certainly prefer 1-2-3-4-5 instead of a-b-c.
Anyhow, I guess we just need to wait for additional data and complete the counting when we know a little bit more.
Thanks again, R
Quote:
Originally Posted by unicorn7411 http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Hi Rocroy;
Thanks for the count;
It is almost the same as the one I came up with.
Now, let me explain what I don't like about it:
If you pick all the waves labeled as 1 and go to the 2 min (or the 1 min) chart and examine them you will verify that they are a-b-c sequences; not clean 1-2-3-4-5 sequences.
This means that the perceived (1-2-3) sets of the assumed (1-2-3)-4-5 sequences...
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#799
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 9, 2008 12:36pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar64906_2.giftemitope
Member
Member Since Mar 2008
19 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif gu again
fontu
oh..i think i now get what you are trying to say fontu...besides i am not disputing the fact that we are in a wave 4..but thats on a daily timeframe..and about the complain on why the 38.2 point has not been met is not a big deal cos its going to hit..before we see more movement down..more..but mean while i feel the wave 4 (broken down) itself is trying to be a complex flat with a temporal new low that would be formed at around..1.5100 as first target and a complete analytical point at 1.4925 in order to justify the movement up C...am very positive about this as this point i mean the 38.2% retracement point will be achieved.then ..only then will the new low wave 5 be seen.
thanks for the enlightenment but am talking about the wave 4 itself..the circles point is the point of concern.
pls i will gladly welcome anymore coments..pls.
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#800
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 9, 2008 8:33pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar47291_4.gifFXoffshore
History & Economic Cycles
Member Since Aug 2007
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif EURO Triangle may complete wave E tonight.
As expected, a bearish contracting triangle formed as wave 4 in EUR/USD over the past 4 weeks, and it is reaching an optimum trade entry with the near completion of wave E. Aggressive traders can enter within the red-dashed box near 1.30 at the top of E with 1/2 lots, then the other 1/2 when price breaks the lower trend line and closes a candle to confirm the downward start of wave i of (5) down. Downside target is below 1.2300, and may exceed 1.20 by mid-December to set a low before a large retracement.
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=167610&thumb=1&d=1226280752
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Nov 9, 2008 9:44pm
pipeye
Member
Member Since Dec 2007
149 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Cable
Quote:
Originally Posted by FXoffshore http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
As expected, a bearish contracting triangle formed as wave 4 in EUR/USD over the past 4 weeks, and it is reaching an optimum trade entry with the near completion of wave E. Aggressive traders can enter within the red-dashed box near 1.30 at the top of E with 1/2 lots, then the other 1/2 when price breaks the lower trend line and closes a candle to confirm the downward start of wave i of (5) down. Downside target is below 1.2300, and may exceed 1.20 by mid-December to set a low before a large retracement.
Attachment 167610
Hey FXoffshore,
Considering the euro is forming a triangle in its wave 4. Do you think that the Pound could have already completed its wave 4 and possibly wave 1 of 5. I have attached a chart with what appears to be a 5 wave count in wave 1 and also a nice Head and Shoulders pattern developing. Your comments would be much appreciated.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=167617&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1226285046
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #802
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 10, 2008 12:11am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar47291_4.gifFXoffshore
History & Economic Cycles
Member Since Aug 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/10kt.gif206 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif Cable in a triangle as well
Hi Pipeye,
I do not normally trade Cable, so my charts are not kept 'in tune'. I only look at EUR/USD, oil, S&P, as swing trades, mid term. But I gave it a quick evaluation. I see GBP in a triangle as well, wave A is a double zig-zag like Euro I assumed, and the rest counts easily. If this is the correct count, wave E is near complete now - I would expect another push higher with a false break to the top side, then the start of wave V down.
On your chart, wave 4 significantly overlaped wave 1, which breaks one of the three rules. Sometimes this can be the case in a diagonal triangle, but I don't see it in that form, I could easily be wrong. Always best to consider the alternative and welcome valid counts. The key is knowing how to eliminate or lower some counts, and ideally get to just one before entering the trade. For me that is an "8-cycle" (a 5 followed by a 3 retracement).
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=167656&thumb=1&d=1226293543
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#803
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 10, 2008 7:22am
pipeye
Member
Member Since Dec 2007
149 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by FXoffshore http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Hi Pipeye,
I do not normally trade Cable, so my charts are not kept 'in tune'. I only look at EUR/USD, oil, S&P, as swing trades, mid term. But I gave it a quick evaluation. I see GBP in a triangle as well, wave A is a double zig-zag like Euro I assumed, and the rest counts easily. If this is the correct count, wave E is near complete now - I would expect another push higher with a false break to the top side, then the start of wave V down.
On your chart, wave 4 significantly overlaped wave 1, which breaks one of the three rules. Sometimes this can be the case in a diagonal triangle, but I don't see it in that form, I could easily be wrong. Always best to consider the alternative and welcome...
Much appreciated. You know, I have been a little confused about the overlap rule (wave 4 into wave 1), as it seems that some people allow for it to enter but not close into the area of wave 1. The problem with that is the ambiguity it creates. From now on, no overlap for this kid.
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#804
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 10, 2008 7:38am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/3kt.gif594 Posts
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UsdCad chart.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=167835&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1226320773
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#805
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 10, 2008 8:49am
SunTrader http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Trade the reaction not the news!
Member Since Mar 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/10+kt.gif4,413 Posts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pipeye http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Much appreciated. You know, I have been a little confused about the overlap rule (wave 4 into wave 1), as it seems that some people allow for it to enter but not close into the area of wave 1. The problem with that is the ambiguity it creates. From now on, no overlap for this kid.
As I said earlier, I think the only trouble with that is sometimes the waves just don't cooperate. A wave 4 trades into wave 1, then a wave 5 completes and the trader is left behind.
Last edited by SunTrader, Nov 10, 2008 4:51pm Reason: clarity
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#806
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 10, 2008 3:39pm
lacika
Member
Member Since Jan 2006
92 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EW
Hi!
I read The quick and short about EW.
What would a seasonned(successfull) EW counter trader advise me to read after?
THX,NL
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#807
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 10, 2008 8:33pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar47291_4.gifFXoffshore
History & Economic Cycles
Member Since Aug 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/10kt.gif206 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon3.gif Elliott Wave Free Online Resources
Quote:
Originally Posted by lacika http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
I read The quick and short about EW. What would a seasonned(successfull) EW counter trader advise me to read after? THX, NL
Read everything you can. There are many free resources. And practice counts on charts. It takes a great amount of practice to learn, and much experience to sense when you have a too many viable counts to trade.
Quote:
Elliott Wave International's tutorial is the most comprehensive introduction to the Elliott Wave Principle available in cyberspace. All ten lessons have been adapted from Prechter and Frosts Wall Street bestseller, Elliott Wave Principle - Key to Market Behavior.
To start your Elliott wave education now, click here.
Buy the book, and take the online free courses while you are waiting. A collection is in the early stages of being published at: http://vault.bz/elliott-wave/
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#808
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 10, 2008 9:24pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar15771_1.gifunicorn7411
Member
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/1kt.gif70 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Triangle Resolution
ok; done with wave 4. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/cool.gif
It is time to count the 5 wave sequence that is under way.
i.e. count the sub-waves of 1 of 5 of (3 or C).
I have noticed that some friends are counting wave 3 as completed and the triangle wave 4 as being 4 of a larger 5- wave structure.
My count considers this triangle as wave 4 of 3 (or C), and considers the current wave that has started today as 5 of 3 (or C). Your observations and comments on this aspect of the count are welcome (count details given at my first post on this thread).
Next chart, today's 5 wave sequence.
cheers. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=168158&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1226368915 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=168164&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1226369934
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#809
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 10, 2008 10:00pm
SunTrader http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Trade the reaction not the news!
Member Since Mar 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/10+kt.gif4,413 Posts
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Robert Prechter teaches theory.
But the guy who teaches how to practically trade EW is Robert Miner and his book is Dynamic Trading.
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#810
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 10, 2008 10:59pm
pipeye
Member
Member Since Dec 2007
149 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Eur/Usd
Is it possible that we just completed D and are on our way to complete E?
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=168187&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1226375966
Nov 11, 2008 1:18am
fontu
Senior Member
Member Since Mar 2008
661 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by pipeye http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
A chart and an explanation would be nice...
Sorry , here is the chart I see
Attached Imageshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=168219&stc=1&d=1226384292
Nov 11, 2008 12:09pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar15771_1.gifunicorn7411
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/1kt.gif70 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif wave 3 of 1 of 5 of (3 or C)
It appears that wave 3 of 1 of 5 of (3 or C) is right on schedule.
welcome friend. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/cool.gif
I have attempted a count before this wave ends and a projection.
Note that the count of sub-waves may be off. (so what is new ??).http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Projections are for exercise purposes; they are not forecasts.
They are actually Fibonacci projections.
If you are interested, there is a lot of material on the web on Fibonacci projections.
Note of caution: you cannot trade someone else's count. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/surprise.gifhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/confused.gif
You must come up with your own count. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/cool.gif
Why you may ask.
It is best to identify your own count; this way you will know its assumptions, possible inadequacies and have a clear understanding regarding points of count verification - points of count rejection.
Additionally, as I mentioned in my previous post, I think that the best use of an EW count, is as a filter to a good trading method.
cheers.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=168479&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1226423340
Last edited by unicorn7411, Nov 11, 2008 12:44pm
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#823
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 11, 2008 1:04pm
fontu
Senior Member
Member Since Mar 2008
661 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by unicorn7411 http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
It appears that wave 3 of 1 of 5 of (3 or C) is right on schedule.
welcome friend. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/cool.gif
I have attempted a count before this wave ends and a projection.
Note that the count of sub-waves may be off. (so what is new ??).http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Projections are for exercise purposes; they are not forecasts.
They are actually Fibonacci projections.
If you are interested, there is a lot of material on the web on Fibonacci projections.
Note of caution: you cannot trade someone else's count. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/surprise.gifhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/confused.gif
You must come up with your...
Thanks for the post , yes at last it happen as expected and unfortunately could take all those long awaited pips as of my very busy schedule in the office at that time .
here is my chart:
sorry it is not clean as I save from the chart I using with indicators,ea .
fontu
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#824
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 11, 2008 1:28pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar15771_1.gifunicorn7411
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/1kt.gif70 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif real time count update
real time count update.
Note that this is the futures contract.
Its price today is ~ 22 ~ 24 ticks less than the spot price.
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#825
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 11, 2008 2:21pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar15771_1.gifunicorn7411
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/1kt.gif70 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Real Time count update 2
Lets see how it plays out. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
complex correction under way.
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Nov 11, 2008 8:20pm
pkimnyc
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/10+kt.gif2,918 Posts
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guppy count 15 min i have so far.
any help, suggestion, or different view is appreciated.
thanks.
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 12, 2008 12:58am
Rocroy
Senior Member
Member Since Jun 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/2kt.gif513 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif my eurochart
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=168738&thumb=1&d=1226469486
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#828
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 12, 2008 6:02am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar77494_1.gifsaeidhidari
Eliot wave trader
Member Since Aug 2008
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/1kt.gif125 Posts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pkimnyc http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
guppy count 15 min i have so far.
any help, suggestion, or different view is appreciated.
thanks.
wave 1 false
WAVE 1 WAVE 1:1-2-3-4-5
WAVE 1YOU :A-B-C
Last edited by saeidhidari, Nov 12, 2008 6:13am
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#829
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 12, 2008 6:10am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar77494_1.gifsaeidhidari
Eliot wave trader
Member Since Aug 2008
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/1kt.gif125 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EUR USD H4-H1
EUR USD H4
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=168870&thumb=1&d=1226488179
EUR USD H1 +Btterfly
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=168871&thumb=1&d=1226488179
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#830
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 12, 2008 7:30am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/3kt.gif594 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue bottle http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
UsdCad chart.
UsdCad chart..
Nicely formed 5 & 3 waves..
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=168915&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1226492987
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#831
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 12, 2008 7:52am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar47447_1.gifsoso
Evil Speculator
Member Since Aug 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/2kt.gif177 Posts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue bottle http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
UsdCad chart..
Nicely formed 5 & 3 waves..
I've been following the same tracks for a while now. I expect (c) wave of the correction to finish around 50% ret level, a lot of confluence around that level.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=168929&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1226494345
__________________
-soso
Nov 12, 2008 5:19pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
Senior Member
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/3kt.gif594 Posts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by soso http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
I've been following the same tracks for a while now. I expect (c) wave of the correction to finish around 50% ret level, a lot of confluence around that level.
Hi,
Agree with you, me too expecting it to go downwards for wave C or 3.
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 12, 2008 6:44pm
doji
Member
Member Since Oct 2007
75 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EUR/USD
Quote:
Originally Posted by saeidhidari http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
EUR USD H4
Attachment 168870
EUR USD H1 +Btterfly
Attachment 168871
Does anybody else see Wave 4 as tracing out a flat corrective move, such that we could expect to see another move up (Wave C) for its completion?
I notice that the RSI on the monthly and weekly charts are showing oversold levels.
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#835
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 12, 2008 6:51pm
Barak's pip
Member
Member Since May 2008
237 Posts
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hi there ,
what do you think about my wave count?
attached - chart of usdcad,
hope for your comments,
Barak
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#836
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 12, 2008 10:00pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar77494_1.gifsaeidhidari
Eliot wave trader
Member Since Aug 2008
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif gbp usd
hi
wave c irregular or runing
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#837
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 12, 2008 11:27pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar15771_1.gifunicorn7411
Member
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/1kt.gif70 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif ending diagonal ?
fxoffshore, saeidhidari, rocroy, doji, fontu, other fellow wavers;
do you guys think that eurusd in wave 5 of 1 is forming an ending diagonal ? http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/thinking.gif
OR is it a Leading diagonal, the first wave of 5 of 1?
what is your analysis?
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#838
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 13, 2008 12:01am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar47291_4.gifFXoffshore
History & Economic Cycles
Member Since Aug 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/10kt.gif206 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Expanded Flat?
I don't see it as an ending diagonal. First, it is pointing the wrong way for a wave C; second, it is lacking the right contracting shape. I think it is an expanded flat, where the wave B has dragged quite low. Compare USD-CHF (inverse) and GBP-USD in the same time frames. My 2 cents. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
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"Expect the best - prepare for the worst" Trade Charts and commentary: http://vault.bz
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#839
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 13, 2008 12:08am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar47291_4.gifFXoffshore
History & Economic Cycles
Member Since Aug 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/10kt.gif206 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif CAD
Quote:
Originally Posted by Barak's pip http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
what do you think about my wave count? attached - chart of usdcad....
Hi Barak,
Your count is good, nice chart. No problems there.
I have preferred the count where CAD has one more impulse up to fit with USD Index, EUR-USD, and others entering a 5th wave.
The CAD 3rd looks to be subdividing, i.e. I, II ; i, ii ....
It should test the previous high at 1.30
__________________
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#840
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 13, 2008 1:57am
Dukeman900
Member
Member Since Jul 2008
102 Posts
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I look at the daily ABC swings to look for retracments.
I am expecting a low on the euro Fri / Mon... it may come in today - one day early.
you will see that the euro has reacted to the 25% going long. I am looking for a retracment to enter long... but I am looking for a low 14-17 Nov.
This work well... look at the retacments from the high at the pressure points. Reason I use this is the banks don't look at 5min charts they are looking at the big picture as I do...
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=169317&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1226559390 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=169318&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1226559390
Nov 13, 2008 2:33am
Rocroy
Senior Member
Member Since Jun 2007
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I think FXoffshore is right, its not a diagonal. I do not even try to count every small move, as at least with my experience things get too error prone. Instead, I look at fibs, which work pretty well.
BTW, I still think that we are in the middle of complex correction and euro will bounce up from those two 261 fibs.
Quote:
Originally Posted by unicorn7411 http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
do you guys think that eurusd in wave 5 of 1 is forming an ending diagonal ? http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/thinking.gif
OR is it a Leading diagonal, the first wave of 5 of 1?
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=169329&thumb=1&d=1226561586
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #843
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 13, 2008 6:21am
doji
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75 Posts
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Me, too. What we thought was a triangle is turning out to be a flat correction. Thus, price should first go up to make a Wave C before going down for Wave 5.
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#844
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 13, 2008 12:04pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar15771_1.gifunicorn7411
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/1kt.gif70 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Thanks; but I need more input
Thank you fellows, for your answers.
Additionally I would appreciate your observations and guidelines, regarding the reason for not accepting this as a "diagonal triangle" either leading or ending. don't worry about the rest of the labeling; just tell me about the leading diagonal, and the ending diagonal.
I realize that the lines form a parallel channel as opposed to a wedge, but that was not a real concern.
The crux of my question is:
Do you have a method /tool / thinking process to analyze the properties of diagonal triangles so as to accept one or reject it?
FxOffshore, thank you for your point of view; let me though add this:
an ending diagonal triangle can occur as a 5th wave, when the move up to that point was "too far, too fast" (Prechter's book and website). so why do you refer to a C?
sometimes these diagonal triangles occur as leading in wave 1.
Have you had the chance to study them??
With all due respect to your Elliott wave counts, (as a matter of fact you are calibrating me, to not fall in love with my wave count, and I appreciate that ),
my question is focused on wave know-how.
To the fellow that says that he cares only about H1 charts, because banks use them (as opposed to 5 min charts): that is a great point.
But, I am not a bank; I don't work for one.
Plus I want to learn and apply the nuances; there is great practice on 5 minute charts, 10 minute charts and 3 minute charts (fractals, remember?).
Looking forward to your replies.
Take care. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Last edited by unicorn7411, Nov 13, 2008 1:36pm
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#845
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 13, 2008 12:24pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar15771_1.gifunicorn7411
Member
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/1kt.gif70 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif complex correction
FxOffshore;
do you see a complex "running correction"?
I think it is about to complete or has completed at 11:30 EST
Thanks http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
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#846
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 13, 2008 2:54pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar77494_1.gifsaeidhidari
Eliot wave trader
Member Since Aug 2008
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/1kt.gif125 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EUR USD
EUR USD M15
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#847
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 13, 2008 2:59pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar77494_1.gifsaeidhidari
Eliot wave trader
Member Since Aug 2008
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/1kt.gif125 Posts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by unicorn7411 http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
FxOffshore;
do you see a complex "running correction"?
I think it is about to complete or has completed at 11:30 EST
Thanks http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
No correction
start wave impuls for (correction wave c H4)
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#848
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 13, 2008 4:25pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar15771_1.gifunicorn7411
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/1kt.gif70 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif so your wave count is C of 4
Quote:
Originally Posted by saeidhidari http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
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No correction
start wave impuls for (correction wave c H4)
That was a good call Saeid. (impulse) http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/thumbsup.gif.
so your wave count is C of 4?
i.e. same count as doji?
Take care. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
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#849
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 13, 2008 5:11pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar15771_1.gifunicorn7411
Member
Member Since Aug 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/1kt.gif70 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Just in case
Hello fellows,
Just in case you were worried what happened to yesterday's count http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
and the not so cute ending diagonal, here is the updated chart.
The assumed wave 2 (in square box), has corrected 89% of wave 1(in square box).
So maybe this is not the correct count after all. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/confused.gif
your observations are welcome.
Take care http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
nb. The chart is in local time = EST+7
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=169681&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1226613598 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=169682&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1226613598
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#850
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 13, 2008 5:16pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar15771_1.gifunicorn7411
Member
Member Since Aug 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/1kt.gif70 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Alternate count - flat ABC
I keep simultaneously an eye on the flat ABC that you have suggested.
As a matter of fact I have just computed a couple of Fibonacci Targets.
Ok, I understand that 100% of A is the likely length of wave C;
but, just in case there is truncation, I have the other levels as well.
Saeid will you post your updated chart? Thanks.
cheers. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
nb. The chart is in local time = EST+7
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#851
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 13, 2008 5:36pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar15771_1.gifunicorn7411
Member
Member Since Aug 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/1kt.gif70 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Rocroy, FxOffshore Thank you
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rocroy http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
I still think that we are in the middle of complex correction and euro will bounce up from those two 261 fibs.
good call Rocroy; http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/thumbsup.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rocroy http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
I do not even try to count every small move, as at least with my experience things get too error prone.
I see you point; I had the same approach;
But I decided to try counting the small moves to get more experience and a better understanding.
It is a lot of work, I expect that it will pay off.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rocroy http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
I think FXoffshore is right, its not a diagonal. I do not even try to count every small move, as at least with my experience things get too error prone.
Well, it does look like a diagonal. It may be a diagonal, then again it may not.
It certainly is easier to say this is an abc and be done with it.
But the big C is a 5 wave structure (to my eyes) and the 5th wave does look like a diagonal.
Thanks for taking the time to discuss this. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
FxOffshore, thank you too. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif No new chart on your site?
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#852
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 13, 2008 6:22pm
Barak's pip
Member
Member Since May 2008
237 Posts
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hi guys ,
can any of you tell me in which wave are we at on the nasdaq index ? meaning monthlyweekly charts..
about fibonacci tools (retracements,expansions) , I'll will happy to hear what is your technique of using them ...
thanks,
Barak
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#853
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 13, 2008 11:10pm
Rocroy
Senior Member
Member Since Jun 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/2kt.gif513 Posts
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It did not look like a diagonal in the first place, but became one finally.
I think we might expect this kind of moves. Imo price still needs to visit that 261 fib line, so we could be there some time next week?
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=169786&thumb=1&d=1226635679
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#854
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 14, 2008 1:17am
doji
Member
Member Since Oct 2007
75 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif E/U 4-hr chart
Quote:
Originally Posted by unicorn7411 http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
That was a good call Saeid. (impulse) http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/thumbsup.gif.
so your wave count is C of 4?
i.e. same count as doji?
Take care. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Hi. I don't even think Wave B is done yet. I think we will see another down-wave after this up-wave finishes to be able to say it really is completed. Then, Wave C up will begin.
My two cents.
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#855
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 14, 2008 1:20am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar77494_1.gifsaeidhidari
Eliot wave trader
Member Since Aug 2008
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/1kt.gif125 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif eur jpy
near end wave 4:3
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=169829&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1226643602
Nov 14, 2008 1:22am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar77494_1.gifsaeidhidari
Eliot wave trader
Member Since Aug 2008
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/1kt.gif125 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif usd chf
usd chf montly
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=169831&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1226643769
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #857
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 14, 2008 1:32am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar77494_1.gifsaeidhidari
Eliot wave trader
Member Since Aug 2008
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/1kt.gif125 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EUR USD
EUR USD DAILY
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#858
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 14, 2008 1:33am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar77494_1.gifsaeidhidari
Eliot wave trader
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EUR USD H4
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#859
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 14, 2008 7:21am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar77494_1.gifsaeidhidari
Eliot wave trader
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif USD CAD
USD CAD
Montly wave 4
H4 wave c:4
M 15m 1:C:4
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#860
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 14, 2008 9:10am
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EurGbp chart
wave 3 of 5 is in progress..
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Nov 14, 2008 9:13am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
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AudUsd chart
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 14, 2008 9:19am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
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Quote:
Originally Posted by saeidhidari http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
USD CAD
Montly wave 4
H4 wave c:4
M 15m 1:C:4
Hi,
my M15 chart is quite different count from yours http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
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#863
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 14, 2008 9:26am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
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Other possibility for Eurusd..
What you guys think?
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#864
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 14, 2008 9:38am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
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Eurusd other possibility..
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#865
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 14, 2008 9:44am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
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EurChf chart...
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#866
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 14, 2008 10:09am
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Evil Speculator
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I think EURUSD bear trend is done for a few weeks... My bet is on the bullish side.
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#867
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 14, 2008 10:16am
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Evil Speculator
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This is still my prefered count. Some analysts saw it as a failed 5, I'd rather count it as a correction.
P.S. We have a Reversal Bar sitting on the 50 retrace, if it breaks up I'll get long.
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#868
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 14, 2008 10:26am
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215 Posts
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i think it's gonna test 2860 first, then retrace back down if it break the channel (look at the 1hr chart, what a nice channel it have...)
and if that's so... i'm agree with ur analysis... http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/big_grin.gif
on the 5 minutes chart i think we should see wave 5 (with the target 2860)
sorry no charts posted... slow connection here...
thx...
any comments?
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#869
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 14, 2008 10:31am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar64906_2.giftemitope
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif eur/usd
i think i second soso...both eu and gu are going bullish soon expecially with the 61.8 retracement on gu..that i think would close with a doji on 4hr.and the eu forming a falling wedge...as wave 4 i think ..
but lets face it...the market is getting too volatile...and more dangerous...50 60,70,pip stoploss points dont even mean a thing anymore(smiles..)
but yes its definitely up.
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#870
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Barak's pip
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usdjpy ,
hey guys ,
what do you think about that wave count ?
Barak
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Nov 15, 2008 3:27pm
SunTrader http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
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Here is the UJ wave count I have for 4H chart. Waiting for minor wave 1 to complete of Wave C of a ABC correction. Wave 1 projected top around zones of 98.926 - 99.244 or 99.628 - 99.854 and time zones of 05:00-09:00 11/17/08:
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 16, 2008 12:28am
fontu
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Now gbpjpy should be in impulse wave 5 but within the range of 4 correction and may create more complex too though seems not anymore . The same scenerio should be many other pairs corerelating :
fontu
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#873
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Rocroy
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That looks like a clear correction, which is about to be completed.
A couple of comments though. Your last count seems to have overlapping waves 1 and 4.
Also I'm a little sceptical if wave B is complete. It looks good, but it lacks a decent support, so I expect it to drift a little lower, to 92.4. But this is my speculation, from ew viewpoint everything in wB is ok.
BTW, what is your big count on UJ? Is this correction wave 4?
R
Quote:
Originally Posted by SunTrader http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Here is the UJ wave count I have for 4H chart. Waiting for minor wave 1 to complete of Wave C of a ABC correction. Wave 1 projected top around zones of 98.926 - 99.244 or 99.628 - 99.854 and time zones of 05:00-09:00 11/17/08:
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#874
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 16, 2008 3:35am
Rocroy
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I'm not sure if that kind of counting is allowed, at least I could not identify it in this ew cheat sheet.
So that is why I assumed that the first wave of this correction is an impulse, wave A, and after that starts a contracting triangle. wave B, which is about to complete, if this triangle scenario is correct.
Other possibilities are open too, like you showed in your other posts.
EW Cheat Sheet.pdf
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue bottle http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Other possibility for Eurusd..
What you guys think?
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#875
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 16, 2008 4:09am
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif ending diagonal
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue bottle http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Other possibility for Eurusd..
What you guys think?
Blue bottle,
I am in favour of an ending diagonal.
cheers. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
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#876
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 16, 2008 7:24am
Sixer
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unicorn7411,
you should consider the countings of "comrad" Dmitry for different time frames:
http://www.alpari-forex.com/en/ew_daily/
Sixer
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#877
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 16, 2008 8:09am
fontu
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Quote:
Originally Posted by unicorn7411 http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Blue bottle,
I am in favour of an ending diagonal.
cheers. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
I think so too , it can't be different than other similar pairs doing & so perhaps started the wave 5 within the 4 wave range though as I am all along in favour of this 4th wave to end! and never thought that much big wave 5 can be finished without notice .
fontu
Last edited by fontu, Nov 16, 2008 10:34am
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#878
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 16, 2008 9:05pm
SunTrader http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Trade the reaction not the news!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rocroy http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
That looks like a clear correction, which is about to be completed.
A couple of comments though. Your last count seems to have overlapping waves 1 and 4.
I am of the EW school of thought that as long as price does not close into wave 1 it can still be valid.
Also I'm a little sceptical if wave B is complete. It looks good, but it lacks a decent support, so I expect it to drift a little lower, to 92.4. But this is my speculation, from ew viewpoint everything in wB is ok.
You might be right, tonight even though it moved lower it still hasn't close into wave 1.
BTW, what is your big count on UJ? Is this correction wave 4?
I am thinking an ABC correction of the impulse wave down from '07.
.
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#879
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 16, 2008 9:34pm
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Hi all,
my eurgbp chart,,
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#880
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 16, 2008 11:36pm
Rocroy
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Well ok, but doesn't that raise the question "on what timeframe"? What I mean that a counting looks ok on a longer tf (e.g. 4h), but on shorter tf's (e.g. 1h) it is no longer acceptable.
I'm sure that your ew school has an explanation to this "problem", but as I'm not from that school (heck, I don't know what school I'm from, SS = sefl-study? http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif) I'd be interested know how you deal with the prev issue. Thanks.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SunTrader http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Your last count seems to have overlapping waves 1 and 4.
I am of the EW school of thought that as long as price does not close into wave 1 it can still be valid.
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#881
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 17, 2008 12:02am
SunTrader http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
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Well see the EW school of thought that I learned is about trading and not theory and holding fast to "rules". Prechter and his EWI bunch are all about having never this and never that. Mr Elliott originally had his wave counts and nothing much else but after the public wanted certainty (which can never be so) did he add some "rules".
So moving down to a 1H chart it does indeed close into wave 1 range by a couple of measly pips. Going into a shorter timeframe by much more.
But even though price can be broken down into smaller and smaller fractals and have similar price patterns, the "rules" cannot be applied as stringent IMHO, for the simply reason that things are not always so nice and neat on every timeframe.
Now none of this means that I will be proven right. That is what alternate counts are for. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
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#882
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 17, 2008 12:23am
Rocroy
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I now remember that you already explained this approach earlier in this thread, but thanks. I think at least at the moment I stick to the rules - few of them and easy to follow. But it is also interesting to keep your school's approach in mind, and check from time to time how this "looser" approach would have worked.
Here a couple alternate counts for uj. Triangle play also here?
EDT: the first alternate is not correct, last wave has to an impulse (or ending diagonal).
Quote:
Originally Posted by SunTrader http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Well see the EW school of thought that I learned is about trading and not theory and holding fast to "rules". Prechter and his EWI bunch are all about having never this and never that. Mr Elliott originally had his wave counts and nothing much else but after the public wanted certainty (which can never be so) did he add some "rules".
So moving down to a 1H chart it does indeed close into wave 1 range by a couple of measly pips. Going into a shorter timeframe by much more.
But even though price can be broken down into smaller and smaller...
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=170649&thumb=1&d=1226899324
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=170650&thumb=1&d=1226899324
Last edited by Rocroy, Nov 17, 2008 12:48am
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#883
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 17, 2008 3:43am
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Evil Speculator
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Hi guys,
I follow a simpler EW school, like SunTrader, and while I agree that the rule regarding wave 4 cannot travel into wave 1 teritory can sometimes be broken, especially if there is a fast spike that takes us a little into wave 1 teritory, I also think that always following the rule does a better service than doubting it.
After all by having space between corrections (2 & 4) is a sign of strength which is a characteristic of impulse waves.
Anyhow each one with his own style...
As for USDJPY, here's yet another count http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/big_grin.gif, showing how discretionary this whole thing is.
P.S. My Euro setup was activated but quickly kicked out bythe big bearish move from Friday before closing.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=170696&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1226911213
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#884
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 17, 2008 4:27am
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Evil Speculator
Member Since Aug 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/2kt.gif177 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif AUDUSD
AUDUSD looks very good imo, attached is a possible count. The correction stopped at 62 retracement of (a). This is the simple EW that I like to look for - a first impulse followed by a retracement who's momentum is clearly inferior compared with the momentum of the impulse wave. The R:R is also great.
Also we have the support of the Daily, if you look carefully you'll see a possible H&S pattern.
Attached Imageshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=170718&stc=1&d=1226913804 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=170721&stc=1&d=1226914211
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#885
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 17, 2008 4:37am
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Evil Speculator
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif AUDUSD, 4H
Same direction but a better, and more bullish, count for AUDUSD 4H.
Note that with the renewd count the end of wave sits at a powerful confluence of fib levels.
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Nov 17, 2008 6:34pm
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Eurgbp chart
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 17, 2008 7:13pm
doji
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Hey, Rocroy. Cool EW cheatsheet. I just had to print it!
Where'd you get that?
Thanks!
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#889
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 18, 2008 1:44am
Rocroy
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Someone kindly sent it when I presented my first geppy counts in Auslanco's thread. Can't remember his name any more. Probably noticed that this noob really needs one! http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/big_grin.gif
It's pretty handy I think.
Quote:
Originally Posted by doji http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Hey, Rocroy. Cool EW cheatsheet. I just had to print it!
Where'd you get that?
Thanks!
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#890
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 18, 2008 5:38pm
doji
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rocroy http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Someone kindly sent it when I presented my first geppy counts in Auslanco's thread. Can't remember his name any more. Probably noticed that this noob really needs one! http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/big_grin.gif
It's pretty handy I think.
Though it's pretty self-explanatory for the most part, is there some sort of legend for the abbreviations like Dx, Tx, etc? Some I get but not all, unfortunately.
Thanks, once again.
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#891
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 19, 2008 12:38am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
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Hi all,
Usdcad chart..
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#892
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 19, 2008 1:15am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
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Usdcad chart in smaller tf.
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#893
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 19, 2008 1:45am
Rocroy
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I believe that for instance Tx means any pattern starting with T: TZ or T3. And likewise Dx stands for ... and black triangle simply means any triangle.
Whoever made the sheet probably wanted to save some space with those abbreviations, and made it harder to read at the same time...
Quote:
Originally Posted by doji http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Though it's pretty self-explanatory for the most part, is there some sort of legend for the abbreviations like Dx, Tx, etc? Some I get but not all, unfortunately.
Thanks, once again.
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#894
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 19, 2008 1:58am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2007
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Usdchf charts
I am looking for the big reversal ahead.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=171704&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1227077882 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=171705&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1227077882
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#895
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 19, 2008 2:07am
Rocroy
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Swissie approaching potential turning point, 161 fib. I did not even try to count the last wave, simply too difficult. But let's see what happens. Many pairs seem to be very close to turn, so that in a way increases the importance of that next fib level.
EDT: Hey BB, different method of analysis, similar conclusions http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/thumbsup.gif
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#896
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 19, 2008 2:30am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar47291_4.gifFXoffshore
History & Economic Cycles
Member Since Aug 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/10kt.gif206 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon4.gif Terminal Diagonals - Big Reversal This Week
I have been busy trading, but dropped in for a visit.
I see some big reversal in the counts, many majors - like EUR-USD, are completing terminal diagonals. Swissy also, same with S&P 500, Oil and Gold, and USD Index. Which pretty much means everything major that was wondering how the 4th wave is going to end, so a big 5th can begin. Well, the 4th ended weeks ago, and the 5th is nearly complete.
When? I estimate before this weekend, Thursday - Friday. It should not take too many hours to finish this off, except if the 5th extends, then it may go a couple more days. It could be as soon as Wednesday if it drops quickly tonight.
Study up on diagonals, and consider it carefully. I cannot ignore what I see in the wide market about to reverse for a least a couple months.
Consider, it was a diagonal that finished Euro at 160.37, and look how it plummeted. I love trading these with small lots over weeks. This wave B quick reversal should be in the order of 2000-4000 pips of Euro gains before coming back to set new lows in 2009.
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"Expect the best - prepare for the worst" Trade Charts and commentary: http://vault.bz
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#897
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 19, 2008 2:57am
Rocroy
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Thanks for the input.
Euro seems to be a bit on the brake at the moment, while other pairs are very near to turn, or have already started the next move (e.g. cable). That is why I do not believe that euro can make to the lower trendline of the triangle, but starts wave C above the line. Fibs (161 and 261) in the graph may indicate potential turning points.
Quote:
Originally Posted by FXoffshore http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
I have been busy trading, but dropped in for a visit.
I see some big reversal in the counts, many majors - like EUR-USD, are completing terminal diagonals. Swissy also, same with S&P 500, Oil and Gold, and USD Index. Which pretty much means everything major that was wondering how the 4th wave is going to end, so a big 5th can begin. Well, the 4th ended weeks ago, and the 5th is nearly complete.
When? I estimate before this weekend, Thursday - Friday. ...
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#898
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 19, 2008 12:54pm
pipeye
Member
Member Since Dec 2007
149 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif USD/CAD
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue bottle http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Usdcad chart in smaller tf.
Hi Blue,
Personally, I think that your 5 is a 3 and your 1/A is wave 4 and that we are currently in wave 5. In fact, it looks as if we are breaking out of a wave (iv) of 5 triangle.
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#899
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 19, 2008 12:58pm
pipeye
Member
Member Since Dec 2007
149 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Cable
I agree with FX, it appears as if we are in the final stages of WAVE A before a major reversal into a Big Wave B. Here is my count of the Pound:
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=172003&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1227117518
Nov 19, 2008 3:50pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar77494_1.gifsaeidhidari
Eliot wave trader
Member Since Aug 2008
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/1kt.gif125 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Aud Usd + Usd Cad + Gbp Chf
Aud Usd + Usd Cad + Gbp Chf
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #902
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 19, 2008 11:23pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
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Hi all,
My nzdusd chart.
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#903
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 19, 2008 11:40pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/3kt.gif594 Posts
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NzdUsd daily chart..
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#904
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 20, 2008 12:18am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
Senior Member
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/3kt.gif594 Posts
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EurGbp chart..
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#905
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 20, 2008 12:22am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/3kt.gif594 Posts
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Cable..
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Nov 20, 2008 1:59am
Rocroy
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Here is an update to my prev euro chart. Yesterday's spike changed the count a little, we got rid of that triangle within triangle thingy, and the last wave is probably a usual a-b-c correction. 161 fib line with historic support looks like a good candidate for a turning point, considering the positions of other pairs.
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=172278&thumb=1&d=1227164281
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #907
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 20, 2008 4:19am
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Evil Speculator
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Bullish alternatives for euro and usdjpy on 4h timeframes.
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#908
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 20, 2008 8:34am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar81717_6.gifRasheed
Malaysia Boleh!
Member Since Oct 2008
85 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon5.gif ...
will Cable heading south?
__________________
Learning, is a never ending processs...
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#909
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 20, 2008 9:20am
SunTrader http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Trade the reaction not the news!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rasheed http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
will Cable heading south?
Take a look at a chart. If it continues the way it has it should reach Antartica anyday.
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#910
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 20, 2008 10:29am
Rocroy
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I've been lately including fib-forecasts in my counts, but it seems that there is really no point in that, as PA quite often invalidates those earlier fibs.
A good (or bad) example is my audusd forecast "...it will drop till 0.6272". Recent moves have changed the scenario so that the fib had to be moved to a different place and the new fib says the next significant resistance level is at 0.6146.
So I think it is better stop including fibs in my charts as many may soon became invalidated and as such hardly provide useful info to anyone.
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#911
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 20, 2008 12:54pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar15771_1.gifunicorn7411
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Same conclusion
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rocroy http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
we got rid of that triangle within triangle thingy, and the last wave is probably a usual a-b-c correction. 161 fib line with historic support looks like a good candidate for a turning point, considering the positions of other pairs.
Rocroy:
and we have another triangle thingy to take into consideration http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/thinking.gif
have a look:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...29&postcount=1
The price action may overshoot the bottom trendline, "final thrust" in ending diagonal triangles. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
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#912
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 20, 2008 9:26pm
pkimnyc
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hello again ew traders.
i have a count for guppy 4 hr chart that i'm not sure if this can be considered as a leading diagonal. any help would be appreciated.
any different view or count can be helpful.
thanks you.
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#913
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 21, 2008 1:27am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
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Hi Pkimnyc,
My other possibility for gbpjpy pair.
It looks valid but i no confident that price will go further down for wave 3&5..
So urs is my preferred chart right now.
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#914
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 21, 2008 1:35am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/3kt.gif594 Posts
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Hi all,
my eurgbp chart.
Nicely formed 5waves..
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#915
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 21, 2008 1:45am
Rocroy
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Here's my take. We are now in wave B, which is a triple zigzag, and in last subwave of of Z of B. End point could be near 130. It is also possible that wave Z is already complete (last subwave of Z should be impulse or ending diagonal and the last subwave can be counted as an impulse).
Hope this helps, at least you now got a different view http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by pkimnyc http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
hello again ew traders.
i have a count for guppy 4 hr chart that i'm not sure if this can be considered as a leading diagonal. any help would be appreciated.
any different view or count can be helpful.
thanks you.
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=172814&thumb=1&d=1227249856
Last edited by Rocroy, Nov 21, 2008 2:25am Reason: Addition to my analysis.
Nov 21, 2008 9:10pm
pkimnyc
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weekly chart. guppy.
i originally thought that the down move was impulse, but recently learned that impulse wave must begin with 5 waves in order for impulse wave to be labeled. that makes the entire down move can be looked as ABC.
any other thought, different view, correction, or count would be much appreciated. thanks.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=173153&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1227326311
Last edited by pkimnyc, Nov 21, 2008 10:58pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #920
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 22, 2008 1:20am
Rocroy
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EW counting gives you typically many alternative choices. My geppy count is quite different to yours, I think that we have a nice impulse wave here. Often a wave can be counted as an impulse or a correction. In that case, if no ew rules are violated, then it is better to count as an impulse. This is my personal ew experience, which unfortunately is not very extensive http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Any comments from other thread members to my statement? Do you know if Prechter or other ew gurus have taken any stand on this issue?
A hint to fib users: try fibbing the current wave. If you fib the prev wave(-s), then your results are probably not that good - imo earlier waves are history, dead and gone, and therefore using the PA of the current wave is a better way. Well, actually it depends what you want to measure / estimate with fibs. But if you wish to know where the current wave could end, then it is better to apply fibs to current wave ifself, not the earlier waves.
Quote:
Originally Posted by pkimnyc http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
weekly chart. guppy.
i originally thought that the down move was impulse, but recently learned that impulse wave must begin with 5 waves in order for impulse wave to be labeled. that makes the entire down move can be looked as ABC.
any other thought, different view, correction, or count would be much appreciated. thanks.
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=173165&thumb=1&d=1227334547
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#921
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 22, 2008 1:34am
Rocroy
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Member Since Jun 2007
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Here's a better fib for geppy. Price respects pretty well those fib levels...
A little off topic, so let's cut this fib discussion here (even though Elliot himself mentioned that Fibonacci sequence provides the mathematical basis of the wave principle). In any case, I believe that fibs are very useful with ew, and can give you a lot of valuable info for actual trading.
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#922
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 22, 2008 11:27am
pkimnyc
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rocroy http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
EW counting gives you typically many alternative choices. My geppy count is quite different to yours, I think that we have a nice impulse wave here. Often a wave can be counted as an impulse or a correction. In that case, if no ew rules are violated, then it is better to count as an impulse. This is my personal ew experience, which unfortunately is not very extensive http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Any comments from other thread members to my statement? Do you know if Prechter or other ew gurus have taken any stand on this issue?
A hint to fib users: try fibbing the current...
thanks rocroy,
your inputs are much appreciated. in fact the daily count on your chart was my original count. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif but, it sort of confused me because the start of the wave looked like an ABC. i'm just trying to learn and i do understand there are (almost always) more than 1 probability. that is why i value other counts to see if i missed out on any. thanks for the tip on the fib usage. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
many thanks to you.
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#923
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 22, 2008 1:49pm
fontu
Senior Member
Member Since Mar 2008
661 Posts
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seems ABC correction in wave 4 still not over :
fontu
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#924
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 22, 2008 4:50pm
pkimnyc
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fontu http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
seems ABC correction in wave 4 still not over :
fontu
i see your point. thanks.
also noticed that your weekly count is also ABC. i thought i was the only crazy one. lol
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#925
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 23, 2008 4:10am
Rocroy
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One more chart on geppy. If you take a look at monthly price moves, you'll notice that this last wave can be either an impulse or correction. If the ZZ correction is complete, then we can count it as an impulse, but if the correction continues for instance as a double ZZ, then this last wave has also to be a correction. So time will tell, let's just patiently wait a few years... http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Just had to insert one fib on the chart... http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/winking.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by pkimnyc http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
thanks rocroy,
your inputs are ...
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Nov 23, 2008 7:58am
fontu
Senior Member
Member Since Mar 2008
661 Posts
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Thanks Rocroy for the analysis , in mothly gj also in wave c correction ,the same 4th wave in C too. No not years ,it will take time to confirm the movements , may be this week or if 2 more rounds to consolidate then may take 2-3 weeks or by end of this year.
fontu
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #927
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 23, 2008 8:14am
fontu
Senior Member
Member Since Mar 2008
661 Posts
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Again see how widely open down the stoches are in the monthly chart:
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#928
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 23, 2008 12:57pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar25165_1.gifmarketwavez
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Eur/Usd
3 great trade set-ups from last week .............http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
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Trade set-up : ( # 1 )
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Last edited by marketwavez, Nov 23, 2008 1:08pm
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#929
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 23, 2008 1:00pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar25165_1.gifmarketwavez
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Eur/Usd
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Another , Trade set-up : ( # 2 )
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#930
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Eur/Usd
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Yet, Another , Trade set-up : ( # 3 )
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Nov 24, 2008 6:56pm
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EurUsd chart..
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 24, 2008 8:29pm
SunTrader
Trade the reaction not the news!
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I am no strong adherent for EW rules but that is a suspicous looking 5th wave in the form of a descending triangle/wedge thingy.
4th wave looks impulsive and 5th looks corrective instead of the other way around.
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#933
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 24, 2008 11:30pm
fontu
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SunTrader http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
I am no strong adherent for EW rules but that is a suspicous looking 5th wave in the form of a descending triangle/wedge thingy.
4th wave looks impulsive and 5th looks corrective instead of the other way around.
Me too , I still believe it is 4th wave consolidation like gj now following and many pairs now in corelation like eu,gu,gold should be the same phase pf big abc correction & waiting to finish the 4th & 5th wave of c or simply A leg down.I think they will take time to complete 4th wave . Yes think similar in eu too , going for c wave of 4th >still to go up to finish , then may come D & E & finally down or shortcut the 5th wave to start, who knows?
fontu .
gj now :
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#934
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 24, 2008 11:34pm
SunTrader
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UJ 1H looking for wave c of wave 4 to complete:
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#935
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SunTrader http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
I am no strong adherent for EW rules but that is a suspicous looking 5th wave in the form of a descending triangle/wedge thingy.
4th wave looks impulsive and 5th looks corrective instead of the other way around.
Same feelings here SunTrader. I see 2 bullish impulse moves each followed by a 2-wave correction.
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#936
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 25, 2008 3:02am
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif USDJPY, H4
This is what I see here.
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#937
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 25, 2008 4:15am
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UsdCHf
Forming 5 waves nicely..
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Nov 25, 2008 7:46am
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Usd/Cad
Here is a look at what may be occurring .....http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
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Only a Probability , ................ Not Cast in Stone !
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #939
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 25, 2008 7:49am
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Eur/Usd
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Probable Wave-Count
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( Double click on chart to enlarge )
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#940
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 25, 2008 8:26am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
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Quote:
Originally Posted by marketwavez http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Eur/Usd
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Probable Wave-Count
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( Double click on chart to enlarge )
Good chart Marketwavez.. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/thumbsup.gif
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#941
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 25, 2008 8:30am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue bottle http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
UsdCHf
Forming 5 waves nicely..
Updated count for Usdchf..
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#942
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 25, 2008 8:49am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue bottle http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Good chart Marketwavez.. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/thumbsup.gif
Eur/Usd
thanx for your compliment ............http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
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#943
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 25, 2008 9:05am
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Eur/Usd
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Houston , I think we have lift off .............http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/surprise.gif !
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Last edited by marketwavez, Nov 25, 2008 9:16am
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#944
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 25, 2008 10:17am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by marketwavez http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Eur/Usd
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Probable Wave-Count
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( Double click on chart to enlarge )
Eur/Usd
Whoot , there it is ! ............http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Price-action has now rallied into target ......
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