一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

The last hour has made me update my EURUSD count. I still think that we are in a triangle...in fact, I am more confident now about this than I have been in the past. Wave E from 1.4950 is unfolding as a zigzag and will be complete in the next few days....if not tomorrow. (the labels should be A-B-C not W-X-Y...sorry for the confusion)

A bottom could be as low as 1.4415 near the triangle line....but the main point here is that I think we are very close to a bottom.
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hefeiddd

Another reason why I favor a dollar bear scenario is the clear USDCAD pattern. 5 down with 3 up now. Within the 3 up, wave c is exactly = to wave A. The advance stopped right at the confluence of the 50% and former 4th wave.
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hefeiddd

My GBPUSD count is more or less the same as the EURUSD also...except as a double zigzag nearing a bottom...I think
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hefeiddd

I didn't know that stochasics had forecasting abilities. I am working off of the pattern, which I believe is a triangle. I'll throw in some osillator analysis as well though. If one were to draw an RSI trendline, the bias is to the upside. I have also marked previous 'foolish' buys, at least according to the stochastic oscillator.Attached Images

hefeiddd

hi all,

i think there's a good short to do on eur/gbp
my view on it, since the top

chart 4h :










Sideways to up movement in the way for Euro?
This is an update of the cart I put up yesterday. Bear stance tells me to expect a retrace soon as we have 5 wave down. The only way I would embrace Jamie's triangle count would be if we made 7 waves then a retrace since triangles are made with corrective waves.
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For all the dollar bears who are looking to buy Euro soon, take a look at this momentum indiacator. Do you really want to go against this? That, in my opinion would be foolish. A better plan I think would be to wait for seven waves down and see if this indicator is converging somewhat. Then go long on a minor swing low. But with the indicator looking like this, the bears are in total control for now.
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hefeiddd

Hey Serhito,
The verdict is still not in with gold. The ony thing I know is this would probably not be a good time to buy. Im not completely ready to scream out a top just yet but th evidence is mounting. I guess a top in the Euro would definately put a damper on Gold going any higher.
Heres what I see which is why I wouldn't add any longs. We have 5 waves up from June 24th low with a reversal candlestick as of last week. Another case for PERHAPS dollar bulls.Attached Thumbnails









Alright, obviously I need to make my point again and place my chart on one more time. This will only be the third time today but hey, who counting right. WE HAVE 5 WAVE DOWN...count them 1,2,3,4,5. This means were MAY BE due for a reversal. But Im looking for a retracement to SHORT AGAIN! Thats my PRIMARY COUNT. My SECONDARY COUNT is the triangle EVERYBODY here seems to have MARRIED already. But for the TRIANGLE scenario to pan out, I would like to see 7 waves. IM NOT SAYING YOUR WRONG, IM SAYING I NEED FURTHER PROOF OF A TRIANGLE. THAT ALL! So yes, AMerican, we should get a reversal now. But it does not make that a bullish bias, it makes it bearsh cause we got 5 WAVES DOWN!
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hefeiddd

Given the strength of what would be considered wave 5, this could very well be counted as a zigzag (5-3-5). C = 61.8% of A at 1.4446....a test of triangle support close to 1.4400 is possible....but I am very dollar bearish right now.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Howdy.

NEoWave, wave,wave,wave
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hefeiddd

You must consider possibilities before entering a trade friend... There is a clear channel guiding price lower, the consesus would be that price should stay inside that channel as long as the down trend is intact. But as we can see by looking at the channel, price is currently near the bottom side of the channel, so a rally away from it was expected... For me anyway... That is why my position size is not too large at the moment and I have an extremely wide stop... (which I am comfortable with because I'm sure of myself) The stop on my short position is above the top channel line, vertically in comparison to where price is right now.. As time moves forward and the channel line moves down, my stop follows downwards.. After my stop is at breakeven on the first portion,, (AND ONLY THEN) I will look to add to my postion.. Most traders wouldnot use this approach because there is obvious "BIG" risk for loss on the initial stop... I however am different from most people and have money to spare for the stop even if it is hit.. which I highly doubt it will be ....

If you are looking too short the pair... best approach is to wait for price to come close to the upper channel line then short it ... I just chose not too wait....Attached Images

hefeiddd

The vote of confidence puts a smile on my face whatcount.. Thank you... Now.. when it comes to the pound... I don't think this decline is over yet ! So be careful with longs here... I think this massive down trend will end and we will get a nice big "B" wave to the upside, but It's not happening for a while yet... probably like another 1000 pips down ... That big bullish candle in the downtrend threw a lot of people off I think ... But this down trend is still intact...So I say again be CAREFUL !! Maybe you want to get out of that long position now or hedge down to the origin of the diagonal triangle to protect your principle investment, then wait for "B" wave to come back up.... There's two choices you can make...Attached Images

hefeiddd

Here ya go DANISH ... EURUSD is a sloppy mess right now.. but there is decent resistance over head.. I think price should continue lower from the current juncture, but given these swings up and down, I think we might get another swing back towards the high... Regardless, I have no interest in this pair right now until it can break 1.4310 on the down side.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Eurnzd
Here's a look at EURNZD .. Still heading down.....
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hefeiddd

Glad to be of help I think the prior low could offer some minor support causing an upward bounce not much further down from current price... Careful here... I would say best course of action would be to just leave this pair alone for now. Look to buy the next wave up when price reaches the rising trend line ... As ugly as it is too... I would wait for confirmation of that reversal upwards instead of buying blindly at the line.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Usdjpy
Lets have a look at possibilities for USDJPY... The high price last month was 111.91, price may head up towards that area to test that price before we get a downward continuation. Basically we want to get short this pair anywhere close to the upper channel line if price gets near it, with a stop above the channel line... Just something to watch... There's plenty of downside left in this pair... But with the bank of japan no doubt defending these levels we are getting close too... I wouldnot be surprised to see some big spikes upward in price, while staying inside the descending channel...
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hefeiddd

Hey guys,
We, may be headed lower from here. Heres how Im playing it. If a 7 is made, keep an eye on that trendline. A reversal from the line would mean the triangle scenario is alive and well. If it blows past that trendline, and makes a new minor swing low and breaks 4365, look for 9 waves for an impulse down and chances are weve made a significant top.
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hefeiddd

Usd/cad$
Loonie broke the support at 0.9994 and the next support is at 0.9730 and once that is cleared, the target is at 0.9518 where the 3 rd wave will end. Best place to cover the shorts and go long again. But one step at a time and the short works well and looking to go short again if it goes above par.

Please whoever follow the pair, correct me if my take is wrong.

Kumar



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hefeiddd

Kumar....first of all...welcome to our great forum. We've got a great group here. As for AUSSIE, I do think that a 2 is complete at .8817 and a smaller degree 2 is probably complete at .8874.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Alternative AUD/JPY, very BULLISH
Hi everybody, i suspect that AUD/JPY could probably fall a bit more below 94.15 before the next big rally.
I believe wave 1 is complete at 97.49, since subwave i (3.55pips) is almost equal to wave v (3.63pips) and also wave iii is almost equal to being 1.618 of wave i.
Within wave 2, subwave a can be counted as a double zig-zag and subwave b as a triangle which i believe is
complete. Finally, if wave c=a then wave 2 should end at 93.32 which is 40pips off the 61.8% Fib retracement. After that look for a big rally that should go over 100, as Jamie has already stated.

Thanks.
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hefeiddd

Usd/Cad

Here is a look at it -

( Appears to be oversold )
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Only a Probability ! ......................Not Cast in Stone !

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hefeiddd

Eur/Usd

( Daily bar) wave-count
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